Grant Paulsen previews the Nationals' 2026 season & what to expect from the team

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Alright, hopeful to be joined by Grant Paulson to discuss

the NAT season preview it,

and talk a little football as well.

NATs open up today at home against...

I'm sorry, on the road against the Cubs at Riggly.

NATs with the second lowest over-under number

for the Major League Baseball season.

It's 65 and a half.

The Rockies are the only team with a lower number.

So we'll wait for Grant to call in,

and we will talk some baseball with him.

You know, something that I said on the show yesterday

generated a lot of reaction,

and that was that I kind of felt like

Jaden and his season last year

has been discussed in a way

that was more about a step back season,

a regression season,

a season that a lot of people predicted before the year began

because 2024 was kind of a lucky year.

So Washington with all their close wins,

Washington with the schedule that broke the right way

with some of the backup quarterbacks,

and then Jalen Hertz gets hurt in a game late,

and we're facing Kenny Pickett,

and we've got some of the New Orleans quarterbacks

they went through in one game,

and that it couldn't be duplicated.

And, you know, a lot of those people said,

I was right, but they weren't right for the correct reasons.

I kind of felt like there's been historically

when Joe Burrows had an injured season.

It's like, look out for Cincinnati next year.

Joe Burrows back, he's healthy,

if he plays 17 games, they're going to be a good team.

Same thing has happened with Lamar Jackson.

Same things happened with Dak Prescott at times.

I mean, he didn't play last year,

but he's going to be back,

so the Cowboys are going to be much better,

and I've just kind of felt just from my perspective

that that's not the conversation about Washington.

The conversation about Washington isn't,

well, I mean, they didn't have their starting quarterback

for 13 out of 17 games.

I mean, he only played in four complete football games,

so if he's back and healthy,

of course, they're going to be better.

He hasn't gotten that benefit of the doubt,

and more importantly, not that I think he deserves it

like Burrows does, or Jackson does,

or Mahomes does right now, or Prescott,

they had more years, you know,

even though 2024 was obviously super special,

a super special year,

and an outlier year for rookie,

like no rookie season ever matched that.

But I just felt like, man,

why do people keep missing the single biggest reason

that Jaden's numbers don't look the way they did in 2024,

or the team's win total doesn't look like it did in 2024?

Did they miss the fact that he barely played football?

You know, in 2024?

So I got a bunch of feedback.

This from, where is the one that I wanted to read?

From Anthony, it's a lot of disingenuous people

painting their own narrative about JD-5.

Acting like 24 was a fluke or something.

He's done more in that first season than anyone else

in modern football.

Somebody else basically said,

this is all about the, you know,

the PTSD with Snyder.

You know, they're never going to think of our team

in the same way that they think of other teams.

I don't know if that's true or not,

but I do think it's interesting

that that's not part of the discussion

in previewing our football team for the upcoming season.

Anyway, do we have Grant yet?

Okay, good.

What is that you're playing?

We're not about the Nats, Kevin.

Okay.

Grant Paulson is joining us right now.

Of course, co-host of the Grant and Danny show,

two to six thirty every day on our sister station,

1067, the fan.

I said earlier in the show,

and we know each other,

and we've known each other for a long time,

and you know I'm not the biggest baseball guy,

but I actually really love and used to love baseball,

and during that stretch of 12 through 19,

2012 through 2019,

I think there was a lot of excitement around opening day,

but it doesn't feel like an opening day to me,

and I know the game's not at home, it's at Riggly,

but it doesn't feel like that for our town,

where it does, I think, in a lot of baseball cities.

Do you agree or not?

I agree.

I think the primary reason, Kevin,

is that it's not the home opener,

which is kind of the big celebration,

if we talk to people headed at the ballpark,

you'll be seeing some of the different businesses in town,

you know, having different events and activations.

But I think what you're getting at too is,

it's been a long time since this team was a winner, right?

When you mentioned 2019, the World Series,

since the following year, the pandemic year,

when we were robbed in 2020 of the unfurling of the banner

and the ring ceremony in the chain to go celebrate

that Nationals Park, which was a real kick to the shins,

it seemed as not a winning season,

and now you've got a new president,

a new general manager who are coming in,

and I love this group,

and I think their analytical focus is long overdue,

and it's going to be a success,

but they're setting themselves up for a really good run

from like 28 to 38.

So you're asking for some buy-in from people who have been patient,

and now you're resetting until I'm going to be more patient,

and baseball's one of those sports where it's fixed months,

it's every single day,

and if you already know going in, you're unlikely to be a competitive team

each day that's going to make the playoffs,

the juices before the season are going to be maybe watered down a little bit.

I think that's what you're feeling.

So your optimism about Taboni and the new group

that they have in their front office,

is it quelled at all by ownership,

by the fact that the learners have tried to pinch every single penny

out of this franchise,

and tried to avoid losing money more than making money?

I mean, we used to feel that way about Snyder.

Do you feel that way about the learners?

I do.

Yeah, it certainly is.

You wonder what the feeling is in terms of sustainable success,

without more opt-in from this ownership group,

which is possible.

We have seen them invest and try,

and it worked, by the way,

when they won a World Series with Mac Shurzer,

who had gotten a $200 million contract on the mound,

and Strasburg, who they paid a couple times over at the top of the market,

the World Series MVP,

and they brought in veterans like Jason Worth for $126 million.

They've done this before,

so you wonder,

will they get back to that or not?

But here's why I'm excited.

This pathway is the only way to win,

when you're not spending.

So to continue to do it the old way,

you need to play a little checkbook baseball,

which they have stopped doing.

There are teams around the sport,

the Tampa Bay Rays, the Cleveland Guardians,

the Milwaukee Brewers, among them,

that routinely win,

and are in the mix year and a year out,

and can compete for World Series titles without spending a lot of money.

And so that's where my optimism comes from,

is worst case scenario.

This ownership group is here for an extended period of time not spending.

I still think you can get back to being a 90-plus win team year and a year out this way.

I don't think you could have done it the old way,

but my hope is, frankly,

that after the work stoppage,

which is the fly in the ointment for selling this team,

if you're inevitable and it's looming,

it's going to happen start of next baseball season.

Right now, next year,

there will not be an opening day almost certainly.

I think this group may sell on the other side of that work stoppage.

I don't think you can sell.

It would be like trying to sell a house.

Someone can't live in for an extended period of time, right?

So I think that's the hope for an act fans,

but the part I can control is the baseball element of it,

and they have assembled the Avengers of player development and scouting.

Tell me what to be looking for as you preview this specific season,

but in the context of,

you believe some of this will lead to contention in 2028.

Yeah, it's the development of good young talent.

So James Wood, last year,

in the first half of the season played like an MVP and was an all-star,

completely fell off in the second half,

but he's possibly not 100% healthy,

but also swing out of whack,

strike out 200 times,

and they didn't have an answer for him.

The coaching staff couldn't fix him.

They've got a different coaching staff, more hands-on, more capable,

more actionable detail being given to players,

all these things that, down at Spring Training,

I learned about technology and resources.

Can they get him right?

One of the things I'll tell you is like they have this new trajectory machine

where he could take ABs off of the player he's facing in a game,

based on, you know, just punch it in numbers.

You get to face the exact pitch,

visually off that pitcher, like an arcade game,

right before you go play them,

then that's where one of only a couple teams in the big leagues

that didn't have this.

A lot of teams had this at every level in the minors.

They're just now getting it at the big leagues,

West Palm, and in AAA.

So, I mean, what is that?

I let me interrupt right there,

because Tommy was talking about this project arc,

you know, these things that essentially 25 teams have had

until the Nats finally got their first two.

And what do they cost like 250,000 apiece?

I heard upwards of like half a million,

but maybe it's a little less, yeah.

Okay, so why didn't they have it before?

Wasn't Rizzo screaming for it?

That's the question.

I know for a fact they wanted them.

I had heard that Mark Shalaba, the assistant GM,

with Alex Cole, and a couple more active players who knew about these,

had gone in toward facilities and looked at them at other places,

and then they put them in the budget,

and they'd get crossed out every single year.

So then the question I would have is,

are you kicking and screaming?

Are you fighting for this?

How much do you really buy in?

Rizzo was very successful that a lot of good things,

but his background was scouting,

and he was not going to be someone that lived and died with analytics.

I mean, that's one of the last teams that agreed with putting,

you know, a catcher one knee down,

and these little tendencies that have swept the league for three,

four years, they're always kind of one of the last ones.

So I think there was two-fold one.

Ownership doesn't want to do it,

and two, to make them do anything,

you probably have to really convince them,

and a guy like Paul Taboni is going to die on the hill of getting them,

and I don't know if the last group was.

I'm not saying they weren't, but I would be surprised

if they were as energetic about it as this group.

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Alright, so James Wood, tell me about Dylan Cruz

being sent to AAA.

Is that a sign of uh-oh concern?

Or is it too early to feel that way?

So, it's pretty shocking that he got sent down first and foremost.

Not undeserved necessarily, Kev, but shocking, in my opinion,

because it's just something that wouldn't have happened here in the past.

It is indicative of where he was offensively in spring.

He is a career two-ten or so hitter at this point,

closing in on what is effectively like a full big league season

over two campaigns.

And they need to fix this way.

He has never hit spin.

He has struggled with off-speed.

Two years ago, he crushed fastball at a $2.99 clip.

Last season, he wasn't on time for fastballs either.

There was a regression there.

There's some feeling organizationally maybe that he was not making the adjustments

in the past that were being advocated for.

And I understand that if you're the number two pick,

a cat missed player, best player in college,

get on base and all 50 on games at LSU in your final year,

you know, those types of things.

Also, maybe your relationship with that coaching staff wasn't as good.

So I think what they're going to try to do is revamp and retool the swing a little bit.

And it's so much easier to do that in the anonymity of the minor league,

so to speak, than night in and night out, people watching the results,

and the wolves being at the door,

because three weeks into the season, you're hitting 200 against.

So I like the idea of setting them down.

I'm just shocked to say the stones to do it as they're building their relationship with him.

But on cruise, I would say,

you know, if I could maybe try to be succinct on his long term,

if he is exactly what he is right now,

he's still a good, helpful winning ball player,

because he's a great base runner, terrific defender.

You can put him in center, premium defensive position.

And if he hits 220 or so with a little bit of power and still some bases,

that's fine.

It's just disappointing at number two overall.

He needs to hit more to basically make that number two pick, look better.

But if he can hit adequately, he could be a star,

because the rest of his game is already proven to be well above average.

So they're trying to turn him into the best version of himself.

Go back to 2023 and just tell me the answer to this.

I think I know it.

But if the Nats had the first pick,

they would have picked schemes, right?

Definitely.

Yeah, I think they would.

Okay.

They were so pitching dominant.

I think they love schemes.

They were happy to take cruise.

But I think more interestingly, let's just say,

you know, somebody else went one and they chose between the two.

Like you're saying, I think schemes is the pick.

Specific to the team this year,

what do you think a strength is if they have one?

And then where are the biggest areas of concern?

I mean, unless you're talking about like youth and energy,

I don't know what the strength would be right now,

if I'm being completely honest.

Last year analytically, they hit the ball harder than most teams.

They were in the top 10 all year, top five for much of the year,

in terms of how hard they hit the ball,

which is actually important.

They just hit the ball on the ground at the highest rate.

So it's a lot of ground balls and basically with the team,

across from you want you to do.

They did drills at spring training to try to lift the baseball.

And these drills where they're trying to be in a certain angle

in terms of degrees of launch angle for more line drives.

So I would say I think they can hit the ball hard.

I think they've got that to ball skill with guys like

Dillon Lyle, who's another young player,

who was excellent last year with the NL player of the month,

not rookie of the month, but player of the month in September.

That would be maybe the strength of this thing,

would be that they do have like,

that's a core man, CJ Abrams,

as an infielder, James Wooden, the outfield,

Dillon Lyle in the outfield,

when you get Dillon Cruz back, Brady Hauss is a former top 15 pick,

just hit 400 in spring for much of camp.

That's an exciting collection of bats to monitor

and try to mold that clay.

I would say the weaknesses are,

I worry about them defensively,

and their bullpen is a complete unknown.

They're probably going to run through two different relievers

before every couple of homestands, I think.

I mean, they're just going to have an assembly line

from the miners to the majors.

Real quickly on CJ Abrams, right now,

as we sit here in March 26th,

before they played their first of 162,

isn't he in your mind a major candidate

to get moved by the trade deadline?

Definitely, yeah.

I've said all off season,

I thought it'd be traded before the deadline.

There is this weird momentum right now

that he's not going to get traded,

and I kind of wonder where that's coming from.

There's a couple of pieces written,

Spencer Nussbaum of the Athletic.

Fuck the Mark Zuckerman, your guy yesterday.

He kind of said it was 50-50 in his mind on the air,

whether it gets traded.

So it seems like the pendulum swung backwards a little bit,

but I think the reason they keep him at shortstop,

a defensive position where he has struggled,

rather than moving him to second where he would play

a little more effectively, probably,

is because you want as high as possible as a trade candidate,

and he's gotten off to some fast starts.

There are months where he plays like an MVP.

If you go back to last year, he had two months

where he was a top 10 player.

A couple years ago, I think it was April and June,

when he made the All Star team, he was incredible.

So if he has that kind of first half,

I think you'd get a really nice return for him,

and if you're willing to trade Mackenzie Gore,

two years of control, eight of your staff,

All Star Lefty, I don't know why you wouldn't be willing

to trade TJ Abrams for the same reasons of his timeline

not linking up with the teams.

All right, talking to Grant Paulson.

So tell me about Cade Cavallion,

what the reasonable expectation for him this year should be.

I'm so excited about Cade Cavallion.

The stuff is filthy, Gavin,

and he's just getting better and better and better.

The knock's always been kind of durability and health with him.

So he was the first round pick out of Oklahoma,

ends up getting to the big leagues fairly quickly,

makes one start, has TJ,

took him forever to get back to the show,

and then he was touching 100 in his first outing back

last year and everyone's going,

whoa, we forgot about this guy.

He looked like a number one starter this spring.

He threw 14 innings, he allowed only four hits.

I think realistically,

they've got to be careful with the workload, clearly.

He can go out on a day like today against the Cubs,

or any given five days,

and give you six competitive,

potentially dominant innings.

I think that's kind of the frontline caliber starter that he is.

That's not going to happen every five days,

because that's what a true number one is.

He's not there yet in his development.

There's going to be some inconsistencies to iron out.

But I would fully anticipate,

you know, he could have a sub-floor ERA

to possibly strike out a batter per inning.

You know, the types of stuff you see

from French All-Stars, like Mackenzie Gore was here.

I think that type of production is very, very much on the table.

All right, how many wins?

I'm going to say 65 wins.

I think they avoid 100 loss.

Right at the number, yeah.

If I'm going to go over under,

what is it right now, 66 and a half?

I think it's 65 and a half.

I think that's what I saw.

So I guess I would go a hair under that.

But here's what I care about.

Does Dailin Lyle look like he did last year?

Does he look like a franchise piece in the outfield?

Does James Wood look like the second half of last season

was a bit of a mirage in play at that upper rush long level?

And then can they get one of the other bats to come on in a big way?

Ideally, Brady House.

Maybe it's still in cruise.

But at the end of this year,

do they have three legitimate offensive building blocks?

If that's the case in Cavali's nails,

they're actually in a pretty decent spot here

in this process moving forward.

All right.

Because this is what most of the audience cares about.

Just tell me what you and Danny have been talking about

in terms of who you both would prefer at number seven,

one month from tonight.

I don't think they can go wrong.

It's not being honest with you.

I think this is going to be a home run draft that, regardless,

my best case scenario seemingly less likely than a month ago is sunny styles.

I think he is versatility defensively,

the ability to come downhill for Doronte Jones.

I like my lips thinking about that.

One of the edges following into their lap

would be worth doing a cartwheel about namely David Bailey.

I like a little more than Arville Reese.

But the other guys I'm fine with, right?

I love Jeremiah Love's game.

A lot of people would say don't take the running back at seven.

I think he could be Jameer Gibbs.

And if that's the case, I don't care where you take him.

So I'm not going to be upset about that.

I would be disappointed maybe in Ruben Bain,

but I still think he's a good football player.

No problems.

Caleb Downs.

I could get behind absolutely.

I think he's one of the best players in the draft.

I personally think they don't go that route,

but wouldn't be disappointed.

And Cornell Tate is such a massive position of need.

Logan, I do take command with as you know,

thinks he could be T Higgins.

I think he could bring in a wide receiver.

I've perceived this to be Terry's final year maybe,

who could help replace him moving forward.

I'm pretty excited about that.

So I like all of those.

T Higgins is Logan's comp for Cornell Tate.

He thinks that's like the apex of what he could be talking about.

Yeah, interesting.

Yeah, there's a lot of stylistic similarities for sure.

I've heard that.

I really liked it.

Yeah, me too.

My favorite thing would be,

my favorite thing would be sunny styles.

And then my sneaky man crush.

This is fun thing would be Jeremiah Love.

Thanks for doing this.

Talk to you soon.

Of course, buddy.

Good to catch you up.

Grant Paulson, everybody.

We'll talk some NCAA tournament gambling-wise

with our guy Ben Fox,

the gambling expert at Yahoo Sports Next.

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