Guardians’ margin for error disappears after costly series loss to Blue Jays

0:00Welcome back to the Cleveland baseball talk podcast. I'm Joe Novget joined by Paul Hoynes. Hoynesy, the Guardians lose ground in the American League wild card standings with a six three loss to the Toronto Blue Jays in the finale of the three game series at Progressive Field on Thursday afternoon tough loss for the Guardians Tanner Bibi. You know, didn't have his best game. We'll get into a little bit more detail with that. Just a bad loss a bad series really overall for the Guardians against an opponent that they really needed to do a lot better than what they did against they lose two of three at home to Toronto Tuesday six to one win with Gavin Williams, you know, that you know, the the lone bright spot in series, but they fall 11 to nothing

1:04on Wednesday and six three on Thursday. They're back to 500 at 70 and 70 and now Toronto is is right behind them 70 and 71 half game back and they're just barely holding on to a playoff spot right now. The bigger concern after this series though is that, you know, Cleveland's now at the point where every loss can can swing the standings for them. So, you know, what do you believe? You believe that the Guardians are good enough to hold on to this playoff spot at this point? Are we seeing how how really close things are going to be the rest of the way out? Yeah, I think I think they can hold on, Joe, but they're going to have to play a lot better than they did these last two games. They're going to have to pitch better. They're going to have to play defense better and obviously they're going to have to score more runs. You know, they got off to a great start in this series with the six to one win. They had a great opportunity to really, you know, knock Toronto basically out of the wild card hunt and they didn't do it and they let the

2:07Blue Jays back in and there's a host of other teams right behind them and Joe, if they had one, if they've swept this series or taken two out of three, they'd be what at least two games back in Yale Central race because the White Sox lost two straight to Houston. So, you know, they let a great opportunity slip through their fingers. Yeah, and that's that's sort of the timing of this is so bad because, right, the two losses come at a point where they could have made up ground in the central division and then you don't have to worry about the wild card at all. Let's talk about Tanner Bobby and his outing on Thursday. You know, the fifth inning was really what decided the game and it's where Tanner Bobby's command just sort of disappeared. He walked the first two batters at the inning and then Brett Bateman who, you know, he's only got like what, 35 games under his belt in the big leagues, but he's a guy who gets on base a lot and he got on base with a

3:08a fun single, a play that, you know, in retrospect, Tanner Bobby should have maybe let let the ball drop and see if it was going to roll foul because one way or another was it was going to be a base hit if you feel it. Yeah, I couldn't tell from watching the game on TV Joe, but, yeah, just a tough play and, you know, it, it, games like this usually come down to plays like that and it just got the ball rolling. It got the momentum going. It shifted to the blue jays and they really never look back. Yeah, Nathan Luke's follows with a bases loaded double. Drives into runs, a sort of a broke the game open at that point and then, you know, they go on to add out a few more runs after that. Bobby really career high five walks. He tightest career high with those five walks and five runs allowed in four plus innings. You know, it's his 15th loss of the

4:09season. That's the most in the American league. I believe it's the most baseball right now, four Tanner Bobby and after the game, Stephen Boak talked about how, you know, the way Tanner Bobby is pitched this year, it's not indicative of a 15 loss record, but, you know, at five or fifteen, his record is what it is. Yeah, you, it's an ugly looking record. I think anyone who was seeing Tanner pitch start in and start out knows he's pitched better than that. You know, you can't win if your team doesn't score for you and every other mistake besides the lack of offense is kind of magnified in, you know, in an environment like that. And I think that's what Bobby is caught in. You know, he's got, you know, what double digit quality starts. That haven't got, you know, that he, and he still hasn't won those games. But five walks in a game in a playoff race will get you beat pretty much every time. And don't, don't forget the Guardians needed length

5:10out of Bobby in Thursday's game. They needed him to get deeper into the game. They wound up using seven pitchers and that's probably going to cost somebody a job. It's more than likely going to cost somebody a job or a spot on the roster ahead of Friday's double header because you got two games against Detroit. And it's going to be a long day at the ballpark because there's, you know, uncertain weather schedule. Then it's a bad situation right now. And Tanner Bobby, I think, was kind of wearing it in the clubhouse a little bit. He knew that he had hung out, hung at least one of his teammates out to drive them. Yeah. And it's just been that kind of season for Bobby. I mean, everything that can go wrong has gone wrong. You know, I think, you know, he, you know, he's been through this before. I think he's been through, you know, tough times before, but never like this. But, you know, I think, you know, he'll roll with the punches. I think he's, he's got a pretty good attitude. I think he'll come out of this. But it's just been, you know, he, this guy can't catch

6:17a break right now. And, you know, and, and Joe, it's, in fairness to him, almost every start he has gone. He's, he's average like at least pretty close to five to six innings. A start. This was not one of his best days, however. Yeah. And it, you know, it doesn't help when you're getting, you know, three runs or fewer of, you know, per nine innings of run support throughout the season. What the lowest in, in all of baseball among pictures who have thrown 150 innings. So you've got to look at that as well. The other big thing to come out of Thursday's loss was that Toronto wins the season series. First time they've taken a season series against the Guardian since 2021. And more importantly, taking the season series this year means that if the two of them end up tied for the final wildcard spot, the, the tiebreaker goes to Toronto with the four two series win. So they own the head to head tiebreaker. That makes, you know, yeah, Toronto's behind by a half

7:22game right now. But, you know, if, you know, once that half game gets made up when, when the Guardians play two tomorrow, they're essentially going to be, or they have a chance to be dead even with them. And the Guardians would have to finish ahead of them in order to advance to the postseason. Yeah. And Texas, which is right behind Toronto and a game back of Cleveland right now, they have the season series advantage over Cleveland as well. I think they might have the season advantage over the Orioles. But, you know, Joe, they're best bet right now might, might be to win the division, you know, that, that maybe they should focus all their energy on that because the wildcard is, you know, it's just, it's a wildcard. It's, you know, it's, it's an aptly named because it can change day in and day out. Yeah. And, and that's certainly what they're, they're trying to do, for sure. They do have an edge in the season series against Baltimore. They have three one

8:27advantage right now. They've won three games in the four meetings. And they've got, you know, three, three games coming up next week, beginning with an early game on Labor Day. So, I'll win in any one of those games against Baltimore, it gives them the season series against the Orioles. But, you know, of those teams, I think the Orioles are probably the least likely to, to finish in a tie for the third place in the wildcard spot with them at this point. The way things are trending, we'll, we'll, we'll, we'll see and we'll, we'll follow that. But, yeah, that, that's not having the, the head to head tiebreaker against the, the Rangers and the, the Blue Jays puts them in a really tough spot. Two bad days can, can really just sort of undo a, a good week's worth of work at this point last week. You know, we were talking pretty highly about the, you know, a successful road trip and a sweep and all that kind of stuff. They just really have a, a hard time, you know, focusing and getting these, these big wins. That Thursday's, you know,

9:29loss was a, a big loss, one of the worst of the season, probably for the, the, the guardians. At this point, would you rather put all your energy into chasing Chicago to win the division or, you know, holding off Texas and Toronto and Baltimore? Yeah, I think all you can do, Joe, you know, ideally you'd like to win the division. Then, you know, you could maybe even get a buy and you're based on, you know, the matchups. But, you, they just got to win the game in front of them that day. I mean, they just got to start stringing some wins together, some good offensive performances together and the rest will take care of itself. But in a perfect world, you'd want to win the division. So, certainly the case. Friday's double header now becomes pivotal. Not just for the homestand, not just for the wildcard race or the division, but, you know, really for the season here. Double headers are really tough in September because you can lose up to two games in the

10:31standings just by, you know, if you get swept or, you know, gain two games if you, if you can swing. So, you know, Cleveland needs to, you know, really sort of focus based on, you know, there's, there's this psychological trap of thinking that splitting these two games is, you know, is good enough. They really do need to think about how do they, how can they work a sweep of the Tigers in this double header? And it's going to be tough. They've got Logan Allen going in game one and Foster Griffin going in game two for the pitching matchups. Likelihood that Slade Sikoni could be activated before the the game is on Friday. We saw after the game Carlos Hernandez getting pulled aside and, you know, by pitching coach Carl Willis. So, there's a possibility that, you know, just speculating that Carlos Hernandez could be designated for assignment or released so

11:33that Sikoni can get back on the roster. But, you know, the Tigers come in sort of in a, you know, in a position where, you know, they've been playing well recently, but right now they're not in a position to sort of threaten Cleveland, but they could certainly undo all the work that the Guardians have done over the last couple of weeks to sort of get into this spot and to hold the playoffs spot right now. Yeah, no doubt about it, you know, there's I think the Tigers had loved to spoil the the Guardian season, you know, they're struggling a little bit and, you know, the for the double header is going to be really interesting. A Kider Montero is going for the Detroit in the first game. Then they come back with the left-hander Andrew Sears in the second game. Montero is pitch very well against Cleveland this year. Two starts. He's 1 and 0 with a, you know, an ERA under two. He'll be facing Logan Allen and Foster Griffin, the lefty that the Guardians

12:41obtained from Washington at the deadline will be going in the second game. He's 1 and 0 against Detroit. He beat them last month. So, just an interesting start to the series, Joe. So, Cleveland's priorities for Friday's games, really just looking at getting linked out of their starters. Let's how many innings do you can you honestly expect out of Logan Allen? He's been pitching out of the bullpen. He'd been starting in Columbus. It just seems like, you know, if Sikoni is the move coming off the injured list that, you know, it would be a piggyback situation with the 2xM in game one, but they need as many innings out of Logan Allen as they could possibly get. But it's going to be a game where, you know, coming off Thursday where they had seven pitchers. They use seven pitchers out of the bullpen. You know, they they're going to look at, you know, hopefully getting some length out of one or both of those starters in the double header.

13:46Yeah, just the real interesting situation. It's, it'll be Allen's second start. You know, I would think Joe, what three, four innings at tops at the most, you know, that you want to get out of Allen. I think that'd be a bonus. And then Sikoni, we don't know, you know, I guess, you know, he could come in and be the bulk guy or maybe get you to the seventh or eighth and then you'll go to the pan and with with Griffin, you know, he's been kind of a five and fly guy too. The way Vod is used him, he may be old, you know, kind of squeeze and squeeze another inning out of him or two. Yeah, they're going to try to squeeze six out of Prosser Grip and I can almost guarantee that. But as far as, you know, this is something we had talked about earlier when Sikoni was stumbling a little bit back in in July before he went on the the injured list, is that the idea of maybe an opener for Slade Sikoni will maybe Logan Allen can serve as, you know, sort of an opener for him.

14:51Get him, get him, you know, a turn or two through the lineup before turning things over to Sikoni and just seeing what he can do there. Yeah, it might be, it might work out and I think that's what they're kind of betting on is that Sikoni will be able to give them multiple innings coming, you know, out of the bullpen at that point. If Cleveland sweeps the double header then, you know, you kind of look back at the Toronto series and thank God it's nothing more than a speed bump. But if they get swept, you know, suddenly the the conversation really sort of completely shifts is this one of those rare, early September, our days where the Guardians can wake up, you know, in the playoff, in a playoff position at one point and then, you know, go to bed, you know, completely on the outside looking in. Yeah, I know that about it. I mean, there's what? Like, there's only a, you know, just over 20 games left in the season.

15:51And it's every game's a playoff game that sounds trite, but it's every game they play, you know, the pendulum swings in their favor or against them and you lose two in one day. That's not a good thing. What do you think went wrong in the Toronto series, you know, just just from your observations. I mean, Dylan sees completely shut them down on Wednesday, six scoreless innings and they lost 11-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0- They had chances early, what, second and third in the first inning, a couple guys on in the second inning, they don't get the runs in, you know, it's, it's running, hitting the runners at scoring position, you know, and they pitch pretty well the whole season. And you knew that it was eventually, that was going to catch up to them. But I think offensively, you know, yes, they've improved. The low-oh and Joe Adele have improved the offense. And so has, I know,

17:03but you know, when it comes down to it, this is still, you know, a sub-par offensive club that does not take advantage of its opportunities, that strands too many runners on base, and just leaves too many runners out there, doesn't take advantage of enough opportunities to take advantage of some very, very good pitching. Yeah, Jose Soriano on Thursday, they had him on the ropes in the first two innings, went ultra-fi with runners in second inning. And then, you know, they got to score in position, just a frustrating start to the game, and, you know, they never got back on track. You know, you got a point at one positive chase to water. He continues to look like a legitimate middle of the order presence. Three hits on Wednesday, a double on Thursday. And even on Hellhanno, like you said, with the, with the defense of Miss Q on Wednesday, he continues to contribute. He had an RBI single. In the game on Thursday, driving in Cleveland's first run, but really, there just wasn't enough, like you said, sustained offense. They couldn't connect some of these hits together and string them together and produce runs that way. Austin Hedges, two runs single that made it look like, you know, Cleveland was trying to clutch way back into the game, but, you know, it just wasn't enough. They weren't able to continue things and keep going and take the lead.

18:31The offense still has stretches where it becomes difficult to string together quality at bats. Yeah, and, you know, I think Jose, you know, we see little flashes from Ramirez, but then he kind of, you know, takes a step back. And, you know, this whole thing is built around him. And when he's not at, you know, performing a peak production, everybody else suffers. You know, everybody else tries to do a little too much. And I think, you know, the whole, the whole system kind of shudders a little bit. So, you know, and can he get better over the last month of the season? I'm not sure. But, you know, I don't think, you know, you just wonder how far they can take this without him. And, like we said, you know, with the lot of really sort of being sort of the focal point of the offense now, as well, you're seeing him just sort of starting to emerge and learn how to carry that weight.

19:37You know, you're not getting the consistency that you need from the rest of the order to be able to have them produce. And, I thought it was interesting. Before the game, we were talking about the lottery and we were talking about, you know, why he sort of seems overlooked in the rookie of the year, balloting. And why does Kevin McGonagall get all the love from the national press in terms of the polling for the, the rookie of the year, you know, which, which way the vote is trending. Obviously, you've got Parker Messick making his own case for rookie of the year in the American League. But this weekend should be an interesting test with McGonagall coming in that if Guardians Pictures can contain him and and the lottery can look, look strong against Detroit. He does a lot. That's just a strength in his own rookie of your case, but maybe Parker Messick's as well. Yeah, no doubt about it. You know, the lottery has just been really, he's really been fun to watch, Joe.

20:40He seems like he swings a bat. He carries himself. He plays the right field. I mean, he looks like a five year, a five year veteran, you know, a guy that has been around for a long time. And he just love his approach to hitting. And yeah, definitely. This is a, this is kind of a showcase for if you're, if you're in the prospects, if you're in the rookies, this is a great, this is going to be a great weekend for you. Just to kind of sit down and watch these two and how they go about their business. Yeah, that's certainly going to be the case. You know, and that brings us to what we're watching this weekend. The first and foremost, the bullpen workload, you know, this bullpen is running hot and it's just, it'll just be interesting to see how Steven Vogue manages the bullpen and their innings and who pitches when. What do you expect Vogue to do? You know, if he does run out of pitchers.

21:43Well, Austin Hedges has already made four appearances this season. So I don't know if he can keep going to Hedges, but, you know, I think, you know, they're going to ask a little more from the rotation. But I think, you know, and I don't think he's going to have, you know, he's going to have to really watch himself when it comes to chasing wins, Joe. I think so. He's got to be careful he doesn't want to cost, cost himself in the long run there. Can chase the water, continue his strong second half against Detroit, sort of become the hitter that Cleveland leans on down the stretch. Well, he's going to have to, Joe. I think, you know, they're getting a lot of contributions from Kwan. Yeah, and the defense really, you know, Wednesday was kind of ugly. Thursday was was a little bit better. They need to, the ball needs to arrive at the base where it needs to be. And they need to play clean defense against Detroit this week. Otherwise, things are going to turn south or in a hurry.

22:45Yeah, you know, there's seven and seven and two against the Tigers. This is a series they should win. It doesn't mean they have to sweep them. It doesn't mean they have to dominate them. They just need to win the series. All right. Kwan's going to wrap up today's edition of the Cleveland Baseball Talk podcast. We will check back in with you after Labor Day next week. And we'll talk to you then. Good deal, Joe.