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Penrith and Cronulla started their NRL 2026 campaign with near perfection, but a trip out to the bush is set to hand the red-hot Sharks an early reality check.
The Half-Backed podcast links SC Playbook's Tim Williams and rugby league expert Matty (The Waterboy) Buxton to help find you some winners each round of the NRL season. This week:
00:00 Full round footy is back
01:10 Weekend recap: Waterboy's locked in for 2026
06:00 NRL Round 2 bets: Cody's hot hand
18:15 Moral of the week: Dolphins redemption
19:00 NRL Round 2 tips: Should Rabbitohs be favourites?
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Hello and welcome to the Half Bat podcast of NRL Round 2
I'm your host Tim Williams and we're here to try and win you some more money
The punters some more money across NRL Round 2 this weekend
A full swag of games, the full eight coming out this weekend
Exciting times, here with us, try and find some winners as always
Known for his exploits on Boke Inhabar and the SC public NRL Super Edge podcast
Maddie the Waterboy Maddie
How are you mate?
I'm good finally we're here, eight games, I loved Vegas, I loved the games
But the other six games but there were still time slots missing like you know
Like I was home on Sunday and there was only one game
The Saturday 3pm game wasn't there so not very excited for the full eight games this weekend
Good to have them all back mate
I mean it's straight down to business this week
Winners to find things to do people to see on today's show
We will of course be dropping our Locke value and Hale Mary bets four NRL Round 2
The moral of the week betting it returns for 2026
As we try and learn land a certain thing
Each and every week with a view to donating the winnings back
To grass roots, rugby league back to bush 40
We're also going to draw our head tips for Round 2
But the weekly recap for Round 1 Maddie
Your Locke of the week
I got nervous for you in this one
The closer we got to the game on Sunday
Because it was monsoons predicted for the dolphins
In the rubbados and your Locke of the week because the dolphins vest the rubbos over 43 and half points at a dollar in 90 cents
And it got to game day the rain was around heavy rain everywhere
Did rain throughout the game not as bad as what was around pride of the game and after the game
And I messaged you and I said the rain was coming and you said that's all right
They'll still smash it
Mate 70 points scored you nearly doubled it your Locke of the week absolutely nailed
Yeah, it wasn't really in doubt at all during the game
At half time it was basically already done
I mean there was only like two tries to get and you're like yeah here we go
Yeah now very happy with that one two high scoring teams
Yeah, I think it was like the it's on the leaderboard for the highest
I guess combined score for a round one game
It's like the fifth highest ever or something
I think the highest is like 74
And then it's like equal third or equal fourth or something on 70 so
Yeah, that was a good one
Yeah, for you know if mate you two from two in the profits to start the season which is
Outstanding you're also
I want to say unlucky, but I
I probably can't with your value play because you tipped the upset and you went the pants is one to 12 at $3.60 which
I want to say I'm lucky because I'm like who expected panoreth to go out and wall up the Broncos in round one
Despite you tipping it and saying there'll be an upset
The reality is actually won by 26 points
So probably not unlucky, but nonetheless. I thought it was a good tip for no result. You hate or marry it went no good
Nonetheless as I said two from two problems to start the season for yourself
For me might I mean talk about hard luck stories get the little violin's out get them playing for us
Oh, I found some yeah, I found some winners, but uh and some try scores. I should say I definitely did not find some winners
I just couldn't piece them all together
Cell when cobblers my lock of the week at two dollars and ten cents
70 points scored him that game and cobblers couldn't cross the line taking the you know what
This is where it gets a little bit sad for anyone who followed me into round one
The trail Mitchell into Sam's stone street at four dollars and thirty six trelley mid he got a double
Sam's don't you know what often is how I'm airy
Herbie farm worth try into Tolotale Cola try into kale euro
No try at $13.30
The sharky's maddie put freaking 50 points on the Titans again for the most rookie edge in the NRL just about that edge
I don't even want to say hard luck story really because they didn't look like freaking screwing there's one moment there
Uh a pretty late only in the game an hero got isolated on lucky ilias on one of the steaming lines he runs from center
Two majors in the line and ilias just somehow to a bang hit him stuck took him down
I just went it's not meant to be
So duck eggs from me
Maddie that has put you into the lead with a plus 25% return on investment for the season. I'm in seven percent
How does it fail to for the first time in his shoe path that called podcast for yourself having been on for a few weeks now
You've taken the lead well done. I just I needed a couple early wins because you know when you start on a show like this
You can't start poorly so it's it's good to have started um
Not far so i haven't like jumped out of the blocks, but started
I mean i've started really well, which is good
I just want to go back to the shark thing though
If you told me if like a magic genie or something told me before the game that sharks are scored 50 points
I'm given two tries minimum to stone street and i'm probably given two but dumb death will give him one at euro as well
Yeah, yeah, that's a that's a tough L
Honestly jessie rain in scored three tries in like 21 games or something last year
You know like couldn't stop scoring tries or stone street if that matter when he was playing
ram in scored two on the other edge set one up. I'm like guy has go to the left for god's sake
Pretty sure you read out some tight. Yeah
Pretty sure euro last year you scored that in like 10 games in a row or something
Yeah, he had like 11 tries in 10 games or something
Because if he's not going to score against the titans well
Guess what he didn't so
Anyway a good start for you matter
We asked to both in the green to start the I'd love to have a good little winner again this week and really boost that up to get
comfortably in the green to take a bit of nerves out of it
And we were both pretty as Sam Williams would say bullish going into our plays this weekend
So we get to those shortly um guys. We are on the hunt for a bookmaking partner at sc playbook in
2026 so if you're in the business whether you're large or small
Please do reach out via email at supercoachplaybook at gmail.com that is supercoach the full word if you're interested
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Round two bats time Matty 65% of our back goes to our lock 25% to our value 10% to our hail Mary
I believe you two from two on locks to start the season what have you got to kick off round two?
Yep, I'm hoping to be three from three and my two my two have both been overs
I'm going to get to the overs a bit later, but not for my lock this week
I'm venturing out a tiny bit
So penrith first canala. I know the sharks had a really really good win on the weekend
But you know, I think people have to kind of pump the brakes a little bit because
It's a brand new Titans team and it's the Titans
Whereas penrith, you know, they were absolutely dominant against the Brisbane Broncos
And I've said it. I think I've said it in every show so far. They see they're my absolute premiership favorites
I've got penrith being the sharks, but obviously they're head to head there's a dollar 40
The eight and a half line kind of did scare me off a bit because I'm just I'm unsure
But I went back I went back and had a look at
Penrith and sharks record, you know, this decade pretty much since
Penrith started becoming dominant and like in no shock to anyone penrith have pretty much dominated every team
since 2020 but
Like they have just had the wood over the sharks. They can the sharks cannot get closer them the closest the sharks have got to beating penrith
In I guess the 2020s decade was in 2021 when they did beat them
But like that was an origin week when clear you lie yo, I think Kate well was missing
So the Valley beat them once they got close issue in Vegas
But again, we all know how penrith started last year
So it actually has an age to well for the sharks that's close six point loss
So again, I didn't want to go ahead to head so I found a tiny spit of value here
I've got penrith to win both halves
Paying two doors 30 so there's no number on it. It's just to win the first half and then to win the second half
They've just they've been so dominant over the sharks and I just I don't see that changing anytime soon
Very interesting play. I did not see that one coming at all
I even for it like pardon me, you'll sit there when you start talking about it going or you know
Sharks ultra impressive, you know with the start or something but yeah to do that
That is very confident. I mean talking about their record. I remember going to shark park a couple of years ago
The sharks were in his red hot vein of form penrith were struggling for a little bit of a period and everyone's saying oh
He's the shark his chance to beat them and we're there and I think penrith pumped on like 30 nil something stupid
Nico did his car for around about half time and missed the second half and you just sat there going like they're just so much better
So there you go. I have stayed away from that game
Wouldn't touch with the 50 foot pole punting wise but Maddie is the man with the hot hand at the moment
So up the riff for myself. I have gone
Similar to last week and I've gone to the left edge of the dolphins again
I've gone herbivhan worth any time try scorer getting a dollar 95 against him to score against the Titans
Which seems like a crazy price for me for a bloke who's got 11 tries in these last 13 games of the year
He did start the season this year with the try against the bunnies admittedly it was a bit of a lucky one that came about there
The shark is they attacked that Titans left edge with a ton of success last week
But the rookie ride edge I've mentioned it last week, but I'm doubling down ilius how jojo for feeder fire money
I still think it's a bit of a shambles and I think it could be a blood bath. I think
Like to your point last week. I think it's going to be dry in Queensland in sunk at Suncourt for this one
There's going to be a ton of tries cobo. It's good to score about six
But there wasn't quite enough value for me to go around Selwyn cobo
But yeah, I said again last week 56% of tries the dolphin scored down that left edge last year compared to just 26 down the right
So going in on the dolphins left edge again this week if he doesn't get over herbivore me
And if they don't look that good, I'll sack him for a while, but I'm going back to the well
I'm going herbivodal at 95
Maddie your value play of the week or if you found
So first of all I I love that herbivore play. I think that's I think those odds are crazy
My value played the week. So I've had a lot of luck with the overs and unders in the past two weeks
So I I'd be silly not to keep going with that, but I'm going to I'm going to try and
Kind of I don't know I don't know what the word is, but I'm going to branch out a little bit here
And I'm going to actually multi-tool together. I've found two games where I think the the overs are going to be
definitely in play
the first one is russus souse now
I that might surprise some people and actually in historically the the that game's actually been unders
But this is the first time at a long time that they're playing full strength each other
and
Unfortunately for both teams there are defensive
question marks
Littered in both teams like listen like we don't like obviously souse had a good win last week
They still conceded 30 points like that 30 back they shouldn't be conceding 30 points and the
The russus like jesus they're
Right defensive edge with cherry ovens last week. I know they have made some position change
I think wongs coming in. I know Robert toys coming back, but still like there is so many defensive question marks
In that russus right edge
But not only that both of these teams have attacking weapons everywhere
Obviously that souse left edge, you know no more needs to be said
Cody Walker for feeder trail
AJ AJ going off for that record, but also Campbell Graham
I think he's got a double last week. I think I've picked him to be souse top try scorer
So there's points every on the field for them the russus
um
You know that a poor game last week, but you know they they have a lot of points in that outfit
I actually think this is going to be a high scoring game over 40 under half into
Uh tigers cowboys like I'd over
Started out afternoon. It's 49.5 as well, which I think it's craziness
um
I think that the cowboys are
I don't have a lot of hope for the cowboys this year as I've said before, but I do think they are
Not their attack was pouring Vegas, but I think they'll fix that
The tigers they i say a lot of attacking upside with the tigers as well
I see a high scoring game in that one as well
So I'm gonna multi those two together for three dollar sixty
Uh both of them over 49.5
Yeah, very nice. It is very it's an issue one isn't Maddie that like we saw the amount of points scored in round one
across the competition
One of the last scored was the doggie's dragons game in Vegas like whatever
But the games are back on Aussie soil so many points scored and there are so many
You know six again
Interpretations and the way they're being given this season as well and I think it's pvl doubled down on that a little bit already saying
There's gonna be more of them if the ill discipline is there etc
So it could be one of their minds by around five when the points continue to fuss through and it's just overs overs overs
And you need to beat the bookies to the punching terms of your capitalizing before they are juggling
Their total points line so
Fingers crossed. Yeah, and that's and that's kind of why I'm kind of still get hit these overs ones because yeah
As you said round one
I think it was the second highest round one ever agree at school of all time
Which is just crazy it you're right. It's shade to that 2021 year as for chasing the bookies
I did look at all the games
So I wanted to see the two best and for example titans versus dolphins
That's at 56 and a half that's a bit too much for me even though I do think it will probably
I wouldn't back it but I do think it will go above that
Yeah, I think you're right. I think by around five and six we're going to see these numbers bump up a little bit
When I was looking for my plays my my lock the first one I went to to have a look forwards the line
I had the oversunders for that dolphins titan samson can be so many points and 56 on with you. I was just like
Oh, it's probably just a little bit too many no
I think they're going to smash it anyway, but I was like okay to a little bit too high but yeah
Hopefully beating the bookies to the punch stand mate my value play over the way he's one that'll get you up and about pretty well
I think and I've gone to my boy Cody Walker. You can get him anytime try score up five
Dollars looking around the market. It smells pretty generous odds. I thought for Cody Walker
I think I might have been on Ned's that one the five buck quote
As you said, Maddie the south's attack last week was absolutely elite. They looked unreal
I'm a little surprised. They're not favorites for this game nonetheless big Darby rooster's home game roosters were woeful last week
Toyota in there will you know
pardon me tightens things up defensively a fair bit, but
There's going to be points in this one as you said
And Cody for 30 for a 36-year-old or whatever it is mate. He's running game. Which is good as ever
He was popping up everywhere in that game looked outstanding in the trials scored a good solo
Try as well in the trial against Mamie
There was a hair on his heel. I think it might have been might be in a big toe from scoring a try on the way Kenny
Into the dolphins. He's got the support play to his game
So $5 for Cody Walker. I think that's unreal value and it'll be fired up against the roosters as well in that Darby
Mate, what have you got for your hail mayor with the weight 10% of your play?
Yeah, so my hail mayor this week is also coming from that game
I actually I narrowed it down to two options, but I thought I would go just a little bit safer
David for feeder now I hit in school last week
But he
Obviously is a huge asset to this rabbit os team. They're going to go left all day
But don't forget he backflip on the roosters there. There is still that storyline there
And I remember when he came back last year
For the Titans the Titans smoked him and for feeder had a good game and the roosters
They were like too emotionally invested in and this roosters team like
Trent Robinson being such a calm headed coach
They lose the plot way too often like we saw that symbin game where sourced like that symbin game in 2020
So I know it was four years ago
But like the best player on the field was Cody Walker
They had four triceps that day because he's the only one that didn't lose his head
And he's the one to think would lose his head. I think the roosters
I think the roosters um kind of losing the plot goes unnoticed a little bit
I think they'll be trying to get for feeder but I think for feeder we're trying to get back to them and
Him and score a double is paying 13 bucks. So I'm all over that
Yeah, also running at Cherry Evans. Yeah, as you said sort of mentioned around that edge in the yes
That's how poor they were last week. It's it's a good match up because chairs defensively
Not the best. He's decent in contact. I will say
But some of his reads in the pressure he puts on his outside blocs very questionable at times
So fee fee to cross the stripe there for myself
I've gone to the eels and broncos game now. I will say that
As a straight head tip
I think the broncos is the play and the quote is very short
And that's why I've sort of gone in the opposite direction
I've gone the eels to win this one to 12
Into Isaiah on you to score and reach wild to score that is 27 dollars and 73 cents
So huge value there. I'll be home and host if that gets up in round two
I just I'm looking at that market and you can get four dollars plus for the eels to win it the broncos
They look a bit valuable. They've been terrible in the first two games of the year
Whether that's complacency whether that's a few cobwebs from last year and their premiership hangover
Whatever you call it. I don't know but they have not looked good at all to me
Paramount it would dreadfully and for storm then not a bad football team
We saw how good they were in the back end of last year. They actually beat the broncos at Suncourt 22
20 in July. I think it was so I think we wake up call for him down in Melbourne
I think Riles gets a response and I think he's going to be a much tighter game than the market is certainly suggesting
Reese Walsh is also $1.85 any time try scorer which
It was very close to being my lover for the week as well
Eongi in that loss last week. He was really impressive
Despite that's well at times despite the score and so Eongi
Walsh and the eels to win one to 12 at 27 dollars and 73
Cent I think the eels are a big chance this week. I think the eels are big chance. Yeah, I really do like
I can't believe I can't believe the the market because you know broncos won the comp last year
But they were dreadful and I think honestly, I know the eels end up give it up
Which was which is horrendous in the second half but the
Harry Grant and just manipulating the rock and all the six against they got they were just they were just out on their feet
They did it. They will not show up like that this week. There is absolutely no way
Yeah, I'm with you mate. I think they are looking for big performance
All right
The moral of the week is back the part of the show we try and raise some cash for country rugber league
Each week one of us tries to find what we think is a certainty to win
If it does so we roll the winnings from that back into the following week
The aim is to get to $1,000 which will then be donated to a bush footy club back to grass roots growth
That's what we're trying to do here on the half fat podcast as well
Of course as trying to find some winners for the punters
This week I have gone to
In no shock to anyone selling Cobb over $1.60. He could score six tries this week
I'm also going to double down on my season long top try score about you get a bit extra value because he didn't score last week
As well on top of that one
So sell one Cobb over $1.60 any time try scorer
Hope you that can love and then put a bit of pressure on Maddie to follow it up next week with money in the bank
All right, Maddie head to head tips for round two and whilst my punting tips did not go terrific
I did tip six from six in this on the show last week and there was some ups sets in there
So if you followed me into that I'm glad I did something right and got some winners
I just wish it impacted my ROI which it does not unfortunately Maddie the Broncos and the eels we both said we like paramount at the value there
But the Broncos $1.25 the eels for dollars the line there is 12 and a half who do you like?
Just as a tip for head to head I'm I'm just going to go the Broncos but everything else like I love the line
I love the value play
But if I'm having a head to head tip I'm going blocks
I'm with you mate the value with the eels but head to head I'm going the Broncos
Friday over in Auckland the Warriors and the Raiders this is going to be a cracker both teams started well last week
Warriors a dollar 80 on favorites at home against the Raiders at two dollars and four cents
If you got here
I'm having the most trouble with this game out of any game. I can't pick a winner
I can't pick a shy scorer. I can't pick it over zunders. I don't know what's going to happen in this game
I'm going to tip the Raiders just because it's a fragled. They were last year
But if I'm going off last week's form you should probably go the Warriors plus her at home
It's so it's hard. It's a hard game, but I'm going to go the Raiders
Yeah again from a punting perspective. I did not go anywhere near when I was looking at my plays
I'm going to go the Raiders in a tight one, but honestly to be of a coin to a situation despite only when you're in golden point
It's mainly who you know not many expectations for them this year
I thought that really good last week the Raiders so I think that takes a lot from that
I'm going to go the Raiders in a very very tight one perhaps another golden point
Mate the roosters end the rabbit. As you'll be out at this one the roosters are a dollar eighty three the rabbit is two dollars and one cent
I think that he's possibly a bit harsh on the rabbit. Oh is then again
We do I think expect to bounce back from the roosters
Who do you like?
I will never tip the roosters to feed south. I don't know. I don't care. I'm biased or biased. I am for anything
That will never happen, but I do genuinely south. I do generally think we'll win and also with these games you can
South roosters any game any time any place you throw the form away at the window. It's um
Yeah, it's it's
It's one of those it's just a grudge game, but yeah, I'm gone south
Yeah, a little bit clunky last week the roosters obviously a new
Spine there Sammy Walker and Daly Cherry Evans but I you L.U. played a bit last year
But yeah, just look a little bit clunky for me and the rabbit. It's just to most boxes aside from when we did fence there
Of course, but I like the rabbit. Oh's in that one let's hope Matty does not cop a five and a half thousand dollar fine
For storm in the field when AJ scores and double breaks the try scoom record
Saturday 3 p.m. The Tigers their first game of the season against the Cowboys looking to bounce back from Vegas
Tigers $1.54 cows at 249. Who do you like here?
Yeah, Tigers afternoon like heart. Don't really rate the Cowboys. Pretty easy one for me Tigers
boom me too West Tigers
Dragon's and storm five 30 this one is down at the lovely winstead in the drags $0.16 storm $1.38
The line is eight and a half. What do you like here?
Yeah, I'm so tempted to pick the dragons if this if storm weren't so impressive last week like so impressive
I'm just I just have to tip storm but in the same fictional last year I'm pretty sure it was around three maybe
The dragons beat him down here. It was torrential rain
Dragons just they're good at the start of the year, but um, I'm just gonna fall for it again. I'm gonna go storm
I think it was a Cogra and it was like eight or something stupid. Yeah, and it bucketed down rain or so wet and
I'm with you. I think like just Melbourne was just so good last week that you kind of go oh
Probably have to go them. I'm going to tip them head to head
Yeah, I do like the drains with the eight and a half start from the punty perspective though
I think they will bounce back and they won't too bad over in Vegas either
So I drove with the line be ahead to head. I'm gonna go to the storm make the penny panthers any sharks
Panthers dollar 38 sharks three dollars seven you've already spoken about this one in your place
So you're all in on the panthers. Yeah, I will tip the panthers head to head for short
With a seven and a half start they're punting lives. I don't mind the sharkies
With a big start
Despite you probably don't take too much from the Titans last week with the sharkies
They couldn't have done anymore for what it's worth. That Sunday afternoon
Manly and a new castle at Brookie oval manly dollar 58 new castle two dollars 39 whoever you're here
All day, I've been thinking nights and that's what I was thinking throughout my beds
And then I just remembered that sharks not playing and that's changed everything for me. So just push sharps out
I'm pretty happy with manly at Brookie
Yeah, look, I wasn't convinced about the nights coming into the season and beating the cowboys in Vegas as good as they did
Look, I must admit
Doesn't change much for me as you said Maddie especially the fledger sharp out of this game
So manly we got against the Raiders last week most importantly Tommy turbo who I really wanted to factor into my plays
You can get pretty good value for him anytime try score this week. I've got about
There's about a dollar eight. You're a dollar 90 sort of thing which I like
I'm gonna go manly. I think they win this game despite the loss of C.O. C. I take you oh
Mate Sunday evening 16 p.m. The dolphins and the Titans dolphins dollar 40 times two dollars 97 the line eight and a half
Who do you like this would be a fun watch
Hopefully it's high scoring, but yeah
I'm gonna I'm gonna go the dolphins there just too much attack too many tacky weapons in that team
Yeah, I mean if you same game molting this weekend
And you want to find the game with points to flow
Suncorp Sunday evening
This one. I think the dolphins will probably smash them
Cash in hopefully on the left edge and herbie farm where
Dolphin to me and they'll cover the line comfortably
Maddie that'll do us for the half back podcast for round two
Thank you mate as always good luck out there on Friday against your mortal enemies the roosters
And good luck going through from three on new locks
Thank you very much. Good luck to you too
Cheers guys. Thanks for training in good luck this weekend
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