Half-Backed NRL podcast: Warriors Wizard to weave finals magic

0:00Hello, welcome to the half-backed podcast. I have NREL finals week one. I'm your host, Tim Williams. And life is very, very good because we do have finals footy here. Spring has hit, spring racing carnival. I don't know if it's officially started or not. Maybe not quite. Maybe has. I don't know. Regardless, it's a good time of year with finals footy with me today as always. NREL analyst, Maddie, the water boy Maddie, how are you, mate? Oh, I'm great, Timmy. I love finals footy. I love it when sassy. I'll sit in it and I love it when sassy. I'm a little bit more excited about it. It's much better when your team's in it. So I can't wait for this weekend because I think the 27 rounds, I think it goes for a little bit too long. It gets a bit dry at some points, but yeah, the finals are just breeze life into, into ruby league in general. So I'm so excited. Yeah, I don't think there's too many people out there that don't think the season drags on a little bit too much. So to go for those, a few end of season bludgers where there's games that I mean nothing and they trial new rules. And it's just a weird time here when it goes on that long. So yeah, the finals footy here, very, very exciting.

1:00And we're going to rip straight into things today and on today's show we will drop our lock value and hail Mary Betts for NREL finals week one. We're going to drop our moral bet of the week trying to increase on the kitty that is building slowly towards the end of the season. Hopefully don't aid that back to bush footy to grassroots, rugby league growth. We're going to recap the half that punter of the week and we'll also drive ahead to head tips for finals week one. Firstly, though, to the weekly recap, Maddie, the water, where you're lock of the week, the storm to cover the six and a half start against the sharks in $1.75. It was a four point win to the storm on the buzzer. So no good there. Your value play of the week, Jai Gray, here we were both a little bit can on last week, Indodrome Hughes at 6.50. They put 50 points on them. The bunnies in Jai Gray could not get across this drive. And you hail Mary of the week, Alex Johnson and Kyle Wheat scored two tries at piece at $15.75. They scored one try at piece. So mate, a tough week. Yeah, not a good week. That's a poor week.

2:01Nothing got close. It's one of those classic scenarios where you have a really good week and you think you're the best punter in the world. So you just do whatever you want. So back to the drawing board this week, that was a trocker. I'm glad to say though that there's good news coming up for you. Thankfully mate, the main thing we don't want to do on this podcast is both lose. We need some winners to revel in and get excited about it. Just for the credibility of the show and you'd found a bit of form. Thankfully, the last couple of weeks, I have bounced back. My lock of the week with Troll Mitchell, anytime Trisker at $1.80 tick there, laid on in that game, but to Miracleel's only one to be honest. My value player of the week had Herbie Farnworth into Casey McLean at $4.0.0. Tick tick there, Casey McLean ended up with three tries in a demolition job. I hate all my area. I've nearly had two of the most scorching weeks of all time. Brandon Smith, anytime Trisker, Alex Johnson, anytime Trisker, Jay Gray, anytime Trisker at $17.

3:01Jay Gray missed out. Unfortunately for the perfect week, I'd be going heavy on the bunnies and for the most part they did return the favor. So I made a very, very good week on my end. Thoughts, yeah, your bunnies looked after me. No, good job to me. That was smart betting. And I just want to say though, obviously they'll let you all bet one. But imagine how angry you would have been if you didn't score that last try and he didn't get given the penalty try that Adam Ligel given. So I'm glad you avoided that one because I mean, Trill didn't ground it. So that's completely fair. But no, what a week. I think the most impressive one was the value. Obviously, Casey McLean into Herbie, that just went like obviously all betting, all winning bets in hindsight look good. But like, I remember last week when you mentioned Herbie, I was like, oh, how did I miss him? And then I got on Casey myself on Sunday. So I really, really back to there. And yeah, that was a fantastic bet. I appreciate the support, mate.

4:02I was, I mean, McLean, he was over there, both over $2.00 themselves. It claims like two 10 or something like that. It was like you're kidding. I guess that's how you said. So yeah, $4.00 and $10.00. I'm very, very happy there and have a good turn around leaderboard. I have hit the lead in negative seven ROI return on investment for the season. Maddie, you have dropped a second in negative 9%. We are both within touching distance of finishing in the black in the positive for the year. We're in the single figure of the negative variety, but we're moving in the right direction. So hopefully with a month to play, we can both get there. Chances are you're about to lose for free and confidential support call 1-800-858-8888. Obviously, gaming help online.org.au. Maddie, Ariel Finals, week one. A terrific time of the year for punting. A tough time. Naturally with you typically get less points come finals time. Defenders are up for it. Attacks are clicking a bit harder to find winners, but the value is immense.

5:05Like the bookies for once in their life, they would say they half look at after us. Because there's less points scored, the tris score of value in particular goes through the roof. So lots of opportunities to make up that ground together, so it's into the positive. Make 65% of our bet goes to our loss 25 to our value and 10% to our high on Mary. What have you got for your loss in the week? Well, I love that you just said that to me because you're right. You do find notable tris growers who are better priced than usual. And I had a bad loss last week, so I thought, what do I just... I was thinking, what do I think is going to happen first of value second? That's where I've gone this week. Because Alex Johnston has scored in all but two games this year. If I just read out all these games this year, and I'll just say yes for his score to try, I'll know he hasn't. Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, no, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. So when I see Alex Johnston at $1.63 as opposed to $1.35, which has been in the last weeks,

6:10I'm taking it. I had a... There was a few things that I was keen on this week to lock in, but this seems like the most like based off the history of the season so far, this is what's going to happen. Now in the two games played Newcastle, let's see, round eight, yes, he scored. No, round nine, yes, he scored, and I don't think you played the next one. So he's already scored against the night this year, he scored two tries that game. That was a 42 to 38 game. Why were... Back in, he's scored in every... All but two games this year, and he's at $1.63. I think that it's called the lock for a reason, and he's scoring in every game. So why don't... Why don't just lock it in? I think he's going to score. I think it's going to be a hot... Absolutely. Shoot out that game. So I'm just locking in AJ, and I will say I did go back and have a look at the stats. The last two times he scored 30 tries in a year, which is crazy. He's already scored three. He scored 30 tries. In the first two where he scored 30, there was five or six games where he didn't score. So he's actually the...

7:10At his most consistent scoring of all time this year. So I just... You can't look past him. You just can't. So I'm locking in AJ. I'll add in there, Matty. I think the two tries he didn't score, two games didn't score in. No, the troll Mitchell inside him as well, which changes everything. Yes. So... Yep. Against Manly, the troll not playing, and... Yep, the troll not playing, correct. There you go. So scratch there and we scored in every game. Okay. I have gone down a similar line of thinking, Matty, and we sort of say here often that we try not to double dip, you know, especially week on week and do things to similarly, just to keep some fresh thoughts and fresh spins. But at the end of the day, we are here to find value for punters who are putting their heart on the weekend and coming to us, potentially to laugh at us, who knows, there's every chance. But hopefully to get a bit of wisdom and expertise around right-beliege betting. That is the idea of this show.

8:10And I found the best value of the week by a country mile was also my lock-classed week. And I've gone back to the troll Mitchell, who I found at $2 from the school. And I just... Very good. I didn't want to like, especially double dip with a lock two weeks in a row. Like he scored 12 tries in 11 games this year. One of them was the 30 minutes stint off the bench the week prior to last. Cracking try-scoring record. And he's just been unstoppable all year. The bunnies, they don't hide their attack. We know they're going to go left. They score 50% of their tries down their left, 32% on the right. It's a knockout final. They're not going to be spreading the love right this week. It's all going to go down the left of the troll Mitchell and Alex Johnston. He's got the don't go my match up, who's solid enough defensively, but not outstanding by any means. So I just couldn't go past the troll Mitchell. I'll freshen it up in the next few plays. And I mean, the other one who I could have had as a lock, albeit I do. I don't mind the worries this week, but I haven't put in my plays due to repetition.

9:12But like you can get herby farm worth it to 40 or 250 as well. I just don't think that should have ever happened no matter what the game is. But yeah, the troll Mitchell anytime try to score $2.40. Maddie, you value play the week. Well, Timmy, I tell you why I love it. And I'll combine our kind of picks here. So I went AJ because I'm just like at the rate he's scoring, you've got to take it in $1.63. You've got to take it. That is price too high in my opinion. The trolls at $2.40. He scored in more than a try game this year at center. More than a try game. So if you look at, if you're going purely off stats, he should be priced at like $1.80 or something. But no, he's $2.40. So yeah, you say that you're trying to find value for the punters. Well, you've found some value there. I think I have as well. I think they're both price too high. So I like both those picks. Let's go. Bunnies left edge. Maddie, you've played 25%. Now, as I said before, for the lock, I was trying to pick what do I think is going to happen

10:14the most likely and lock it in. I'm just going to do what it says on the box for everything this week. And I'm going to find what I think is the best value play of the week. Now, Shahi's. Shahi's first count. Here we go. That is going to be a shootout in my opinion. No idea who's going to win. Probably the Shahi's. Now the trend is back. And I've brought trend a lot for a good reason. Because he is going to win the Dalian 5.8 for the year. If he doesn't, it's bullshit. No one else comes close in my opinion. Now, he's back. He is a huge reason as to why the Shahi's were winning so much in the past. You know, pretty much a four-year-old injured. Teg Wulton. Irak and he's flown under the radar so heavily in the past. I'm going to say mainly last season, but certainly the last two, three seasons, but certainly not this year before he was. He's been amazing. And he's taken over Nicaraz, the primary back role in that team. Like Nicaraz, I don't need to play to Roshan this year, but he's playing off the bench of the star, Eric, et cetera. And I think he's flown under the radar because he, I think he's played about 150-odd

11:20games, right? And I know when you think of Teg Wulton, you don't think of your heavily experienced players, but that's what you need to lean into. That's what teams lean into when it comes to these big finals, 40 games. And now that Trindle's back next to him, I think he's going to score a try. I think Trindle's going to feed him a try. He's also, he scored eight tries this year, Teg Wulton, which is the most he's ever scored. I don't think it's a coincidence that it's also the best 40-odd brain Trindle's playing. Now he hasn't scored a try since Trindle's been injured. And again, I don't think that's a coincidence. So all of that coupled with the fact that the Cowboys are a really bad team defensively, like if the sharks lose this game, they're not going to lose 12-10. They're going to lose 30-18 or something, or maybe even more. Absolutely. Teg Wulton at 4-10 to score. I have, I think, for a team that's like a heavy favorite. I think it's fantastic value, especially with Trindle coming back.

12:23So that's going to be my value play of the league, value play of the week. Teg Wulton, anytime, try to score at 4-10. Yeah. When you find like a strike, edge back row, I try to score in back row at over $4. And that little try will get you into a positive for the week. I just light up it. I mean, as you mentioned, you've got Britain, Nicola, on the right edge there, who's, you know, is one of those back rowers in the competition. Yes. Over the last two years, Britain, Nicola hasn't been the best back row at the shark. It has been completely under the radar. Don't get your niggas in a knot. I'm not saying Teg's better than Nicola, but in on recent form, and the fact that he's been dropped to the bench a couple of times in the last years, Nicola, I think that shows that Fizzi has currently more faith in probably Teg Wulton, who I just had has been outstanding. Mate, my value play of the week is a blow who should never be benched again. I'm thinking when we get in benched, it's pissing me off. He's just starting half back everywhere in his tomorrow Martin. I just, he's a gun. And at any time, Trish got this week and get $4.25 back from injury last week,

13:30his running game looked outstanding. His ball playing is incredibly crafty. And because he's so like, just, what are you called? Deceptive with his ball playing. He does the old Joey Johns, the Isaiah Katow, like these ones, if you're watching on YouTube. He has, he has opposite defenders guessing with his eyes and with the way he moves, his hands and he's so, so silky tomorrow Martin. And when he does that, the gap opens up. He dummies and goes himself all the time, add into that as well. I think that the Warriors medals are so powerful. They add even Jackson Ford comes back from injury this week as well, just to add another gun forward into the mix. I think they'll be ripping through the middle. There's going to be a lot of momentum through the middle. And off those quick play of the balls tomorrow Martin, I think you could feast in this one. So he's already scored a cup of doubles this year tomorrow, Martin Ford, 25 cents, thoughts on my boy, Tomate. Yeah, I love it to me because this is going off vibe a little bit. I know this, this show we try and, you know, put stats and stuff in. I've had a tiny quick look, but this is mostly a vibe.

14:31It seems like a Warriors half scores every game. Not doesn't necessarily mean it's always tomorrow Martin. Like every game, either Chanel Harris, Davida scores, tomorrow Martin scores. Whenever Metcalf plays, he seems to score. I don't know how their halves just always seem to find the trial line. And as I said before, tomorrow, Martin's got a couple of doubles this year. He's in absolute form. So I really like that. Also a bit of a side note. He's on a market in November one. I would love the rabbit nose to go after him. I would like I think I think it's perfect. So that's a little side note for me. There hopefully they go after him. But yeah, tomorrow, I'm going to score. I like a lot. What's he paying? 425. Ah, beautiful. Love it. Love it. Thank you. Yeah. Tomorrow Martin for a tutorial like we run the stats on that. This one's probably a bit more vibe based in what I see and how good his running game is. I went through his stats and he's five tries in his 11 games this year, which is fine for a half just under one and two.

15:32A try every one to get even then also a bit disappointed. I thought we more than that. But as for tomorrow, Martin, to the bunnies at half back, holy shit. That is that's you win the con. If you get him done, I mean, if you're after, but get an early release, get him over there. Happy days. Maddie, hi, all Mary. Tim sent you a bit. All right. So think of the show. Do what it says on the box. Well, I've kind of, I've kind of like combined things this week where hi all Mary, I was looking at like big things we usually do. Like people to score hatchery because people scored doubles or whatever we usually do. But I know I remembered something you told me last week, which is what you said at the start of the show where you told me you were like, I love finals 40 because of the value that you get. And you did mention it at the start of the show. So I thought, well, considering there's only four games this week, I might as well bet on all four games, something I have a strong opinion on and just multi them together. And that's exactly what I'm going to do. So South first night over the combined score over 45 and a half.

16:34As I said before, 42 to 38 was the last game. I'm pretty sure that was my lock in the show we did that game. So I'm going to look at it again, but not in my lock. I'll look at it in my helmet. Okay. So there's that one. Dolphins versus worries. I actually think that Dolphins going to win this game, but you can never be sure over there at Mount Smart, go media, stay in whatever it's called. And both of the games this year have been pretty close. So I'm just going to give the Dolphins their 4.5 star. So there's that. Sharks Cowboys. Good luck picking a winner in this game. I think the shark's going to win, but I can't trust either team. I said last week, I said, I said to you off camera. I'll say it right now. I'm not back in the sharks again this year. They have ruled me pretty much all year. So I'm just going to go the Overs in that game as well. Another shootout over 45 and a half at $1.71. By the way, these aren't the, um, these aren't the over underlines that the bookies have given. I've given a few points. Great. So the first one's $1.70, the second one's $1.71 Dolphins plus 4.5 is $1.90. Then the Panthers versus Roosters, this game is a bit trickier to find a bit of value and get it over that.

17:37Mark, we need to get it to, but I just think the Panthers are too good. They're absolutely humming and like. There's been a lot of chatter about the Roosters this week at the last few weeks about how they can win the Concord out Sam Walker. Well, they've, they've still lost their halfback. So I feel like the Panthers are going to win this game comfortably. So throw them in at $1.90. So all of that combined gives you $10.50. Very nice mate. A little bit of interest in each game there. And yeah, you're a brave man that I go into the sharkies because I can on about 0 from 5 from them this year, probably more. And they're just, they're just the Panthers. I mean, there'd be someone out there who's off his from them, but I can't pick what they're going to do. Well, I'm going to profit off them this, I'm going to profit off them this week getting on the overs. So this is the way. This is the way. All right. My how many three anytime try scores, Jacob, Leibharn, Fletcher, Sharp and Tommy Jenkins. That is at $23.08. Party is on if this lobs Jacob Leibharn. He was one I really liked and get him at $4.50 himself.

18:38It was going to be my value. And then I found the man inside him tomorrow, Martin. I thought, okay, probably makes more sense. But yeah, five tries in his last six games, running off tomorrow, Martin, who he's just, I spoke about him before. One of them back growers is a bit of the kick-hours about him. We're thinking just get you in any way runs a great line, devastating ball runner. He can get you in the air. He's really good in the air and he's become a big target for the Warriors hearts. The King game there as well. Fletcher, Sharp, I think the Knight's Bunnies, I think the Bunnies win it. I'm not confident, but I think to your point, I think I'll be pointing that game. So Fletcher, Sharp, you can get $3 for him as well. And he had five tries in three games, prior to his last two games. Keep in mind last game, it was a 12-man Knight's team for the majority of that gaming. It's the Warriors. Just love him and he's arguably the best support player in the competition. Tommy Jenkins. He's the best. Yeah. He is the best support player in the competition. There you go. I'm not named all for Pascal, of course. Tommy Jenkins gets the weak edge of the roosters that can see 40% of their tries compared to 33% on the left.

19:40And then the pen and the attack left side strong side. A bit like the Bunnies, 45% of all tries down the left compared to 31% on the right. So my how many are you? Leibhunt, Sharp, Jenkins at $20.08. Maddie, what are you reckon? I love it. I will never forget when Fletcher Sharp scored a hatry against Sias on Magic Round. It was his 21st birthday. He is the best support player in the comb. And if you have a look at Kaelin Ponger's tries, it's gone down since Fletcher Sharp started playing because Fletcher Sharp just beats him to the mark now. Stealing them all. Betting on Ponger any time is something that I have retired indefinitely. It has cost me greatly this year, because I've realized that Fletcher Sharp steals all his tries. So I love that. Jacob Leibhunt, he could be the back role of the Unreal next year. He is just getting better every week. And what more do we have to say about Tommy Jenkins? So that's really good value that multi. That's hectic. Thank you, mate. It would be a cold day in hell. If you ever turn around and say you don't like my bet,

20:40I'm just going to put a line through it straight away because I know it is bad if you're not backing me up, Maddie. I'm caught by the guys. If you chewed into this podcast, chances are you don't mind a bit of a flutter and finding some value across the ball when you're finding your winners. And we are no different to find the best value each week. We've got the benefit of smart, these smart odds, comparing odds from 100, actually, over 100 bookmakers. Every time I find my best bets, particularly on the ponies. Don't mind the thoroughbreds on the weekend, especially this time you springtime for racing. It's a thing of beauty. I had to smart odds to get the best value all there on one screen rather than bring up multiple different windows. It is outstanding. So go and check it out. They've also got daily fancy sports content. So for the Supercoach and Unreal Fancy players out there, finals time coming along. Have a crack. They'll put coins in your account when you use the coupon code SCPabrik as well. So even better. Now's the time. NRL finals, AFL finals. You do it for any sport just about. Get on there, have a crack. To do so, check out our link in the podcast description on Apple Spotify on YouTube.

21:41The half-back punter of the week. Look, no winners again from the punters out there, but Reese Clevverly, he came damn close with confidence as well. He had her be anytime, Trice Gora. Milky Jenkins, two-plus tries. Alex Johnston, two-plus tries at $14.33. And then it was Comma thanks for coming. He went the early crow on it and only missed out on Alex Johnston's second try, which is a miracle he didn't get a double when the bonus put 50 points on. So just missed out there. And onto the moral of the week, Maddie trying to raise $1,000 with our kitty rolling over each every week with her. What we think is a sure thing to get across the line. We had $2,000. And we don't add it back to Bush 40 last week. Capping off a very nice week on Mayan. Tommy Jenkins, anytime Trice Gora at $1.55. That happened about five minutes in the game. Thank you. Maddie, the kitty's $248 and we're over to you. What have you got? I'm gonna have a bit of fun with this one. I still think, I definitely think it's gonna happen, but I'm just going off the stars kind of aligning for this.

22:44And that is Cionic a total score because he's on 99 tries. I'm sure he wants to bring up the 100 for the sharks. It's an elimination final. So if he doesn't score and they lose, he gets stuck on 99 before he goes to the Cowboys, who the sharks play in this week, the Cowboys. So I think he's going to score his 100s trying into the cows this week at $1.87. Cionic guitar, $1.87 to keep the dream alive for Bush 40. I'm sure the country, Rugby League footballers on the edge of their chair watching that one each week. Maddie, our tips for NREL finals week one. The rabbit eyes and the Knight, rabbit eyes favorites in Sydney, $1.42, Newcastle Knights, $2.87, who do you like here? Sous, I think the Knights are just, they're a bit too decimated. If this was full strength, this would be a $1.90 each. And I'd probably almost tip Newcastle. If they had like Dylan Brown playing, plus all their forwards. So yeah, I think that's just a bit decimated. So I'm just gonna go south. I'm with you mate. They've been so resilient this year tonight.

23:46And like a win wouldn't shock me, but so many injuries. For Frances Manila, he's potentially coming back this week from like a stuffed elbow, discaded elbow or something awful. I just, yeah, men have been in the wars. I feel so sorry for them and what's been a terrific year. But I think the bunnies with a tremendous side, especially the trail back at left center, tell us Duncan left edge back, or I like taking the piece. So bunnies to win this one for me. Mate, the Warriors and the Dolphins over in New Zealand. This would be a crack of Saturday, four or five PM. $1.61, the wires, 233 the Dolphins. Yeah, this is the game of the week isn't it? It's very, very exciting. And I love that it's on a Saturday afternoon at four o'clock. Just fed up. Look, I hate the two hour gap when that finishes. And then there's a two hour gap between the Sharks Cowboys game. And I have made that point strong every single year. And I will continue to. But I think the Dolphins have been this one, but it's gonna be a cracker. And Timmy, Timmy, the last time these two teams played, we were together, remember? It was that we're at the wing house together. And that was an absolute banger of a game.

24:46Oh, yes. Hmm. Big day. I've got it for many reasons, yes. Mate, I like the wires. I think the, I like the fair. I know a lot of people out there yourself ruined that, looking at the Dolphins in it. But I think credit when credit's due, the Warriors have been outstanding, near enough back to full strength. More than anything, the halves are back, at least two of their better halves. I've got that many to pick from. I think there would be two powerful through the middle, cracking game of 40, but it would be an absolute fortress over there and the crowd would be going nuts. So the Warriors for me, mate, the shark is in the Cowboys in Cranala. I'm sorry, not in Cranala. Look, that apology shark, it's been out here at Stadium, 750 on Saturday evening, the shark's Dolphin 45, it's the cows 276, who do you like? Oh, God. The sharks, I guess, just because Trindle's back. We've pretty disappointing that I got a text from Ticketek yesterday, offering two for one tickets already for this game. Look, maybe they should be kept at a shark park considering it's an interstate team,

25:48but, you know, it's not too many. Look, I'm shark-buck number one hater, and I'm saying that, so, look, I'll just go sharks. If they get a poor crowd to that, then look at the less than or even thereabouts of shark park, it's going to look very, very silly on their behalf. Sharkies for me, mate, not with a lot of confidence, but I do think they're the better team here, and I think they'll get the job done. That being said, I think the cows, I think they've got not a lot to lose in this one traveling down. So the pressure is absolutely on the sharkies. Mate Panthers and Roosters to wrap up Finals week one. The Panthers is all of 32. The Roosters 342. The last time they met, the Roosters put a bit of a score on them and won well enough. No Sammy Walker this time around. Who do you like? Yeah, I think, I think, Penra, they just find another gear in Finals, and so does Nathan Cleary. He's, I've said it on SC playable class night, but he's the Michael Jordan of the NRL. He just takes it up another level in Finals, and he's consistently done that since 2020. So yeah, let's go, let's go Penraith.

26:48Penny Panthers tweeted, I'm with you, mate. And it was a hard one to bet on. I love the day factor in it for Tri-Scree. So I'm gonna do like, so mentioned Jenkins, I just, it's one of them ones where you go, valuing the Roosters they beat in last time, they do it awesome halves like Savaler in there as well, but I've just like, Penraith Finals, I can't go against them in any regard. And then you look to go on Penraith, I'm like, that's very short. So just the Penraith Panthers to win it for me, mate. And that'll do us, Maddie, for the half-up podcast, this week. Thank you very much, mate. Good luck, Timmy. Enjoy Finals 40. Enjoy Finals 40, guys. Hopefully with a few winners to boot. Thanks for tuning in.