Housing’s Next Act: The Fed Can Cut, But Not Save It

To investors,

The housing market is widely seen as a key input for what happens in the US economy and how the Federal Reserve decides monetary policy. I asked one of my favorite X accounts to put together a guest post on the current housing situation. This person, who wishes to remain anonymous, has an X account you can follow.

The beauty of anonymity is the reader is left to judge the merits of what is written, rather than assign value based on who the writer is. This guest post should help you better understand what is happening with yields and housing. I hope it is valuable to you.

Here is Housing’s Next Act.

The U.S. economy has shifted from late cycle wobble to clear deterioration. Job growth is fading, openings have drained toward pre-pandemic levels, and the latest ADP print turned negative. Household balance sheets are fraying where credit card and auto delinquencies are climbing toward Great Financial Crisis highs, student loan stress has re-emerged, and office vacancies are at records.

In the market’s plumbing, strain is no longer subtle. SOFR has traded above the Fed’s interest on reserves, a sign dollars are scarcer at the margin while bank reserves have slipped below the $3T line once called ample. Regional bank shares are sliding again, and the Treasury curve has broken lower from the front end through the belly. None of this is random; it mirrors past moments when policy stopped transmitting and the system began hoarding liquidity.

What the 2-year is signaling

The 2 year yield is the market’s blunt gauge of upcoming Fed moves. Over the past quarter, it’s dropped from roughly 4% to near 3.4%, its lowest since 2022. That slide is the curve’s way of saying the Fed will keep easing not because inflation is conquered, but because credit is tightening on its own. The pattern is familiar. In 2001, the 2 year led a 500bp cutting cycle; in 2007–08, it ran ahead of the sprint from 5.25% to zero; in 2020, it collapsed before the Fed finished cutting. When the front end leads down like this, policy usually follows.

Why the 10-year matters more for households

The 10 year is the economy’s anchor. It sets the base rate for nearly every long term loan and reflects what markets believe about growth and inflation years ahead. Most homeowners don’t keep a mortgage for 30 years; they move or refinance every 7–10. Investors price that risk off the 10 year plus a spread for prepayment and liquidity risk. In calm markets that spread is about 1.7–2 points; when volatility rises or balance sheet space tightens, it widens toward 2.5–3.

The 10 year has fallen alongside the 2 year from the mid 4s in July to just under 4%. That move signals cooling growth expectations and rising demand for safety. Yet the average 30 year mortgage remains in the mid 6s, implying a wide spread consistent with stressed liquidity. The Treasury rally is a warning. The market is bracing for a scenario where the Fed must inject reserves faster than planned.

How the slowdown is showing up in housing

Housing entered this phase with poor affordability, uneven regional strength, and a heavy builder footprint. As in 2006, volumes cracked before prices. Sunbelt and Mountain West metros with heavy new construction cooled first in both sales and rents. Tighter, older stock markets in the Northeast and Midwest are now following.

Builder margins have compressed sharply from peak highs. Sunbelt apartment rents are falling. Active listings are climbing across the West. Builders still make up an unusually large share of supply, an aftereffect of pandemic lock in that kept resale inventory tight but now amplifies competition where new supply clusters.

The biggest misconception is that Fed cuts fix affordability overnight. They don’t. When easing comes after the break, mortgage rates fall slower than fed funds because the 10 year sets the anchor and spreads stay wide until liquidity normalizes. The curve is sending that same message now.

How fast the Fed can cut and how far mortgages can fall

Once unemployment rises, the Fed pivots from “inflation first” to “stability first.” From 2007 to 2008, the funds rate fell 525 bps in 15 months. In 2001, 475 in a year. In 2020, 150 in two weeks. From today’s 4.25–4.50% range, a sharper downturn base case points to another 150–200 bps of easing over six months, some at meetings, some possibly between. In a severe-stress path with thinning reserves and fragile regional banks, 300–400 bps within nine months would still fit precedent.

Mortgages won’t mirror those cuts. If safe haven demand pulls the 10 year to 3.0–3.25% over the next year, consistent with past recessions and spreads stay wide near 2.3 points while QT continues, the average 30 year settles between 5.2% and 5.9%. A 4 handle requires a second act with the Fed halting QT and supporting MBS liquidity, or volatility collapsing on its own. With spreads near 1.8 points and a 3% 10 year, mortgage rates could print around 4.8–4.9%. That usually takes quarters, not weeks.

Prices follow volumes with a lag

Demand fades before sellers adjust. Then inventory builds, listings sit longer, and prices follow. A 5–10% national decline over the next year is a reasonable base case if unemployment climbs, with deeper drops in supply elastic, investor heavy markets in the South and Mountain West. Tighter Northeast and Midwest markets may hold up better, but falling rents and slower hiring will still pressure them.

The refinancing wall and policy constraints

Through 2026, the U.S. must refinance roughly $9–12T in Treasury debt and $2T in commercial loans, with a heavy 2026 bulge. That narrows the Fed’s room to maneuver. Ending QT, favoring shorter term bill issuance, and expanding repo operations can ease funding stress, but those steps alone won’t bring mortgage rates sharply lower. To narrow mortgage Treasury spreads, the Fed would need calmer volatility or renewed MBS support, as in 2009 and 2020. Until then, investors will demand extra yield for prepayment and credit uncertainty as unemployment rises.

Bottom line

The Fed will likely cut sharply, pulling mortgage rates from the mid 5s toward the high 4s. Housing will feel it last after liquidity shifts and unemployment rises. If jobs hold, lower rates bring opportunity and better prices; if not, the downturn deepens, patience wins, and timing becomes everything.

The writer of this guest post wishes to remain anonymous, but they have an X account you can follow. I believe it is one of the best X accounts to follow for macro economics.

Hope you have a great end to your week. I’ll talk to everyone on Monday.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

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