How airlines are paying the cost of Iran war

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I'm Pablo Folili, as welcome to DW News.

Tens of thousands of people are desperately trying to leave the Middle East

as the war between Iran, the US and Israel affects more and more places in the region.

With drones and missiles flying through the sky,

airports in Gulf states like the United Arab Emirates and Qatar

are experiencing major disruptions.

According to the International Maritime Organization,

there are some 20,000 seafarers and around 15,000 passengers on cruise ships stuck on their vessels.

So for more on this, I can speak to George O'Cafiero.

He's a Middle East analyst and CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics.

That's a Washington DC-based geopolitical risk consultant firm.

He also serves as an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University, also in Washington DC.

Welcome to DW News.

So first and foremost, how widespread are these transport disruptions in the Middle East?

Yeah, Pablo, it's so great to be with you.

You know, since the American Israeli war on Iran began late last month,

global aviation has been impacted severely.

You know, the airports in GCC countries, especially those in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Doha,

these are really the global crossroads.

And so many people all over the world fly through these airports every single day.

Just during the first four days of this conflict,

there were 9,500 flights that got canceled.

This impacted the travel plans of 1.5 million people.

This is having a huge impact on many different industries as so many different companies rely on these airports.

And as long as this crisis is going on in the Middle East,

many airlines in Europe, Asia are going to have to travel around the Middle East.

And they're going to be huge costs associated with this.

You know, the flights are going to be longer.

They're going to require more fuel for the airlines.

Fuel is one of the main operational costs.

And also on top of this, the conflict is causing energy prices to go up.

So the airlines in the Gulf and elsewhere are paying severely for this war.

And I think until we have a ceasefire in place,

the situation is going to remain very bleak for the aviation sector.

Yeah, George, I was actually taking a look there at some of these radar websites that you can find.

And you see where the flights are basically avoiding that whole area.

But I have seen that some flights have been taking off from Dubai and from Abu Dhabi airports.

But only a fraction is what I've been reading as well.

So what does that mean then for all the stranded passengers who are either trying to leave that region or are connecting?

They were just simply there trying to get home and it was a connecting flight.

And because of course you're dealing with like all types of passengers, right?

From tourists to business travelers.

And it really depends then on each person's country essentially.

Is it or how is it working? Tell us more.

Well, the cost of travel has skyrocketed because of these factors you're discussing at the same time.

What we're seeing in the Gulf right now is that actually a lot of the aviation that is taking place is now going on through muskot.

You know, muskot is one of the cities in the GCC that has not been hit by any of Iran's retaliatory attacks.

And so many people who are in the other GCC states, you know, UAE, Saudi, Kaltar and so on, they're coming to muskot by land.

You know, sometimes traveling over a thousand kilometers to get to muskot from other parts of the Arabian Peninsula and flying out of muskot.

So it goes without saying this is obviously created extremely huge inconveniences for so many people.

We're talking about students, tourists, businessmen, migrant workers, all kinds of people from around the world who have to get to the Gulf or have to get home from the Gulf or transiting the Gulf.

All types of people around the world are being impacted by what's going on with this conflict and its impact on the aviation sector.

Yeah, I mean, muskot of course being in Oman. I mean, I've seen as well that there are flights also from Saudi Arabia and people are basically busing it across the border right and in many cases trying to get to these airports.

But how are local authorities dealing with this and how are they trying to help people who are stuck in say the UAE or in Qatar?

Well, it's a really serious crisis, you know, there are a lot of arrangements made to help out passengers when plans get interrupted because of weather or other issues.

But typically the policies don't address war. So this is a crisis that it's not that it's unprecedented, but it's a very difficult situation and it's it's posing a huge huge problem for these countries.

I think obviously the hope is that things will deescalate soon, but until there is deescalation, these cancellations and disruptions are going to continue.

And I really think until a ceasefire is in place, we're not going to see these airports operating as they normally do and as millions of people each day count on them.

Yeah, I mean, it's a huge business, of course, for these airports, you know, Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi.

And essentially, you know, the Gulf States presented themselves as these sort of modern safe tourist hubs, business hubs as well.

Do you think the war will have a longer lasting effect on tourism or business, in fact, to these countries?

Well, the short answer is yes, and just to, you know, address the important point you're making.

It's been an important part of the Qatari brand or the UAE's brand that these countries have airports that are very important hubs when it comes to global travel, connecting millions of people every day who are flying all over the planet.

And the brand is really built on the stability and the prosperity of these countries.

So when we are experiencing a crisis, like the one we are right now, it completely shatters that image.

I mean, these strikes on airports, also the missile attacks, the drone attacks that are going on.

Also, the heat seeking air defense systems that many countries that are caught up in this conflict are using all of this makes aviation very unsafe.

And I think beyond just aviation, when we're talking about the notion of the Gulf States being stable, being very safe tourism destinations, what we have to realize right now is that there's a new precedent set.

That is that Iran is very comfortable hitting civilian sites in the GCC states.

We may have a ceasefire that can lead to this conflict freezing for a certain amount of time.

But there's, like I said, a precedent that's set that when these tensions escalate and when Israel bombs Iran, the Iranians have crossed this red line in terms of attacking civilian sites, civilian targets in the GCC countries.

And I think that that's going to have a lasting impact on the image of the GCC countries as safe, stable and prosperous parts of the world.

One thing is that one of our colleagues, in fact, in her reporting was talking about the fact that in Israel, for example, there's a warning system for when there's, say, incoming rockets or anything like that.

In the case of countries like, say, Qatar or the UAE, is that sort of something that's in place? Are people receiving warnings of incoming drones or what's happening there? How are they dealing with that?

Well, of course, there are air defense systems in these countries that are critical right now at a time in which Iranian missiles and drones are coming in.

But as we've discussed, this certainly contributes to the dangers flying in this part of the world right now as this conflict is going on.

Sometimes these systems can misread an object and hit an airplane.

Tell us, under which circumstances can an air card or be declared as safe?

You're asking when can an air corridor be declared safe?

Yeah, because I mean, the one thing that we were talking about this before in the newsroom was that, you know, looking at the radars,

you know, we know that there are, or we've seen reports, for example, of, you know, drone still hitting these countries.

But also flights are appear to be some flights, at least, have been landing or leaving some of these airports.

As a passenger, how are they deciding that it's safe to leave or not leave these airports?

You know, I actually do not know the specific answer to that. That's a very good question, though.

Yeah, because I mean, it's definitely one that I think a lot of people are wondering who are in those areas.

But also, with regards to, we haven't discussed the fact that, of course, there are also many tours who were on cruise ships who were also stuck there in the region,

also the Strait of Hormuz and the safety there.

At what point is that also going to be deemed safe, or is that just a question that can't really be answered right now?

Well, I think as long as the American and Israeli strikes on Iran continue, the Strait of Hormuz will be obstructed by the Iranians who have made it very clear that they're not going to allow ships to go through the straits.

I think that it will become a safe passage after some ceasefire is eventually put in place.

How soon that will be, we have absolutely no idea, but I do not just repeat.

I do not think the Strait of Hormuz will be safe until there is some sort of a freezing of this conflict and the dust eventually settles.

All right, George, we're going to leave it there.

But great to get your analysis, George Oak, Haffirah, Middle East, Analysts, CEO and founder of Gulf State Analytics, Washington, these are based geopolitical risk consulting.

And also an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University.

It was great to get your analysis. Thank you.

All right, that's all we have time for, but do send us your questions and comments.

It's always great to get those, but from me and the team here in Berlin, thanks for watching. Take care.

Access to affordable credit helps me pay my employees that I don't really need it.

Infliction is killing me. But who cares? Big retailers and making record profits.

That's why we support the Durban Marshall credit card bill.

See, things in credit unions help small businesses make payroll. This bill would cut the vital resources they need.

While increasing Megastore profits, they deserve it. Don't they?

Tell Congress, stop the Durban Marshall money grab for corporate megastores.

Paid for by the electronic payments coalition.