How To Win Your 2026 March Madness Bracket Pool (Episode 967 with Mike Leone, Alex Hardin, Jack Miller & Jason Lisk)

Hello and welcome to the established run podcast episode 967.

That is my horrible version of the Adam Levitan intro.

We are here. I am Mike Leoni bringing you the ETR college basketball bracket,

March Madness podcast, joined with some special guests Alex and Jack from ETR also

have Jason from pool genius to break down strategy for your bracket pools,

whether it's casual contaster playing some sharper high-stakes stuff will also

touch on survivor a little bit. So first I'll throw it to Jason if you want

to talk a little bit about like just general strategy for bracket pools and I know

like obviously knowing your your pool format is really important and how those

things can kind of dictate how you're going to approach filling out your bracket.

Yeah if we're talking basic 101 to get a decent shot right because people will say oh you

can win by picking the mascot. Sure if you pick you know teams like the

Connecticut Huskies is the best mascot if you happen to time that right but

you're probably not doing that as a general rule and you can get edge so you

want to look at things like your pool size how aggressive do I need to be with

certain picks based on how many people I got to be how many payout spots there

are those that's a key one scoring is a huge one like ESPN has their standard

scoring picks in the first round or worth one picks in the championship game or

worth 32 so getting the champion right is paramount in an ESPN pool those first

round picks honestly are not going to decide pools in most cases so simple

so eliminating teams that could get you more points can be costly in that

format as you so you want to be careful now if you do get upset bonuses which

that format doesn't have but some pools do we see lots of people playing in pools

with like a bonus one point bonus see different bonus see number bonus all these

things impacted differently and you might want to get crazy the more your rules

change and not just pick who you think will win you want to adapt to your rules

there and then I think the main thing if I were talking strategically is people

pick too many upsets and by that I mean they spray the board who do I like to

win is a 13 which seven seed do I think can make the sweet 16 when if you think

about like let's say we identify eight great teams eight teams that we think are

the best coming out of the regions you can get so many combos of how that

plays out at the end that you'd be surprised that it's really hard for you to

be duped on your final eight picks like you could play in a really large pool

unless you are literally on the two chalkiest picks you may be the only one or one on

only a handful who has that combo to win to be in the title game and so I think people

get way too risky with random upsets and don't leverage like they would say oh

your your brackets boring because you had all one seeds last year that's what you needed

you had to get the right combo though um your brackets boring you have all ones

and twos okay but which ones are going to win because that's what the side spools not who you

picked in the 512 game yeah and I think what you're getting at two is sometimes like in terms of

picking your final four elite eight teams you can have one or two pretty smart high leverage picks

that can kind of you know swing things in a big way as opposed to spraying you know five or six

double digit seeds winning in the first round that you know might be fun if they hit but in general

you're risking falling behind and getting yourself locked out a bit later on on this stuff that's

really not going to move the needle if you get it right and you're not that likely to get it right

to begin with you want however you're playing contrarian to get it um to be able to move the needle

obviously the pool size is going to matter a lot the power structure the scoring system

like Jason mentioned but a lot of these pools that follow ESPN getting the champion correct

as you said is is of the utmost importance um so thinking about that and thinking of ways to

get contrarian I'll add some context here for this year which will dive into a little bit more

later but it's an interesting year in terms of the 12 to 16 seeds being about as weak as they've

ever been and the top seeds really the top 30 or so teams in the bracket being about as strong as

they've ever been which is going to color this conversation a little bit um differently maybe

than in past years but how do you get that leverage then and be contrarian if you're saying people

are picking too many upsets um I'll throw it to you Jack in terms of what you think in terms of

like picking first round upsets and how deep to take those upsets as opposed to maybe getting

contrarian deeper into the bracket in the final four or even um into the championship game

yeah I'm with Jason and that I think people generally pick too many upsets um and I think the

best way to think about it is if there's 32 first round games the less likely event is going to happen

in some of them um and so that those events get pretty popularized um and obviously that's

what we all remember and that's why we all love March madness but trying to predict them in advance

um is a lot easier said than done um and so I think if you're in a larger pool and you need to

get contrarian you can kind of compare ownership percentages um ESPN might not have the who picked

who many more but Yahoo publishes their percentages and you can look at something like Ken Palmer betting

odds and compare um the probability of a team reaching a certain round to what percentage

of the field is picking them um and kind of utilize that to find um under under picked teams

such as this year maybe like a a Vanderbilt or a Nilenoi which will dig further into later

yeah you can really line those up in the more casual pools where people are just picking on name

recognition and on seed and as a result these teams that are under seeded or overseeded are me

they're clearly overplayed or underplayed we're gonna get into sharper pools a little bit which

it gets tripped up a bit more in terms of who what where your leverage should be because everybody

kind of knows those things and those types of pools um one thing I know we talked about this last

year Jason and so I want to make this point but in terms of picking a contrarian champion

I know one thing you talked about last year was picking a team to go to the final four or being

the title game like an Illinois in a smaller pool where you don't necessarily pick them to win it all

because nobody and you know a 30 person pool is gonna pick them to win it all and um you know

if they do win it all you can still win because you were contrarian enough further and nobody had

them as champion and not needing to take that kind of extra risk by having them truly win it all

in your bracket yeah yeah that that's an example that came up last year I think it applies to this

year so the thought process here is at certain sizes and in certain years you're gonna see a

a title contender and I'm seeing the numbers this year and I'll give you the breakdown generally

roughly dukes number one most popular 25 to 30 percent on average or picking duke then you

got some Arizona and Michigan and they're close to 20 right and then it drops off the Florida

who's around 10 or just under and then everybody else is gonna be below five so in certain pool sizes

if you think about that it you can go and and if you have anybody but the top four

in the title game there's a chance that you're if you're in a like you just say a 50 percent

a 30 percent if you're in a pool with your buddies nobody has that team to win and so if I

I'll give you an example with this bracket you could do Arizona and Illinois or Houston right

and nobody's gonna have probably have them as a as a champion in that size well if Arizona wins

the title you probably win or you're in the money uh unless it's like Arizona duke and then you've

given up that right but but but you're in live for a lot of other things well you also have an

Illinois or Houston title ticket and they don't even have to play as on the final because nobody's

gonna have a pass that point so you met your essence buying like a a second team in the bracket

dynamics that if they win the title great for you what you just need is the the popular team you

avoided not to win um you do the other side would duke and say Purdue or somebody like that come

from the other side as well duke or or Florida and Purdue on the other side so um that's a that's

a dynamic and then once you get to above a certain size you're probably gonna have to hit the combo

but at 50 or 30 you may not have to have the both teams in the title game you may just need to have one

of them and that's a way to kind of buy two of them yeah I really like that strategy like you don't

want to unnecessarily narrow your options you want to be able to create a bracket that you can win

in multiple different ways depending on how it breaks and there's you know free rolls you can kind

of do earlier in brackets too like let's say you know I was a pretty strong nine seed um but

you know you know you might not necessarily have to have them beat Florida in a certain pool of

size um but maybe you take Florida to not make the final four whether that's losing the Vanderbilt

who's an underseated team or losing to Houston as Jason mentioned in that final four you can still

cheer for that Iowa upset because it's gonna make it easier for Vanderbilt for Houston to advance

and for you to get those points but you don't take on that huge additional risk of seeding you know

the 22nd round points um if Iowa you know loses to Florida that everybody else in your brackets

going to get um trying to marry kind of like the macro strategy with the micro um but let's talk

a little bit like high stakes sharper pool and how it's a little bit different jack hit on

in the casual pools we really we can look at that public pick data um there's stuff on pool genius

that you can check out compare it to the advanced metric sites can can palm one of them the market odds

you can get a pretty clear idea of the teams that you want to play because people aren't gonna play

them these sharper pools are tough sometimes it can end up being the exact opposite I know two

years ago looking at the draft kings uh high stakes tournament I was in the

four seeded all burn and two seeded Arizona were kind of like the clear like sharp picks

they got overplayed in that tournament so much and then North Carolina as the weakest one seed

got played to go to the championship game at half the rate that all burned the four seed got played

to go to the championship game so almost completely flip so Alex are their teams this year that

you're worried about maybe being clear good picks in a casual pool but then it swaying too far

in the sharper pools yeah the two that immediately jump out are Illinois and Vanderbilt like if

you just pull up Ken Palm and see where they're ranked relative to their seeding like they're

certainly under seeded um they have the power rating to compete with a lot of these high in one

and two seeds so definitely expect a huge gap between uh like public and sharp pools with those two

teams um especially Illinois it's because they have a pretty decent draw for the first two round

games um and we just saw both of those teams perform pretty well especially Vanderbilt and SEC

tournament so those are two that jump out immediately that um there's gonna be huge delta

between the contest types yeah Illinois will be a team in casual pools I'll be heavy on and then

the sharper pools it's tough Jack I don't know what you think about this but I was wondering if

people take they over in the sharp pools over play Illinois to the final four elite eight but then

maybe still don't quite have them going to the title game or winning it all and sort of being

either on opposite ends of like really going all in on Illinois or if not fading them a little bit

and try to avoid that situation where everybody overplays them elite eight final four but not around

that yeah I think that makes sense um and I I think that you do I think it's uh it's interesting

to think through because you might have a team like Michigan State who's a weaker three seed um

and in the casual pools you can just load up on Illinois but the pendulum does kind of swing in

the other reaction in the sharp pools and so if you want to take Illinois like you said you might

have to take them all the way to the national championship if you really want to gain leverage on the

field that way um or you could fade Illinois and and choose another three seed even though they're

weaker like Michigan State and objectively if you're in a in an average pool they'd be a worse

pick um because they're a weaker team in a in a stronger region with a stronger one seed but because

the ownership on Illinois might get too high you might you might have to fade them and and take them

to go out early yeah I like that call out comparison in Michigan State I think that's going to be like

the in the in the casual pools can be way too little Illinois way too much Michigan State the sharper

pools it probably swings and in terms of trying to find that team that's underplayed in a sharper

pool sometimes it's a team that's even like overseed it a little bit but the raw odds are still among

the very best um looking at Florida this year we'll get into one seed stuff a little bit but

if people don't want to pick all four ones to the final four there's one one seed that's

weaker than the rest uh Jason that's all you not in a little bit um somewhat concerned that

that if you think going contrarian with Houston over Florida that we could even see Houston at higher

ownership in some of these pools and then we're actually seeing that already like it Florida is

the most popular but the gap isn't that big like the gap is between Houston and Illinois right now

and that's in as you said general data non sharper pools you're gonna see Illinois rise

in sharper pools because of that the gap is already closed in the public between Houston

Florida I think Houston playing in Houston impacts that a little bit uh Florida they're in enigma to

me because I would have powerated them better than their full season numbers because they've really

played much better in conference play until they just took that beat down but that beat down raised

some of the same issues that haunted them in the non conference play which is turnovers guard play

getting outplayed by a team with really good guards and Vanderbilt because Florida can dominate

people up front and that's what they did for most of the SEC season but then they mix in a loss

at Missouri a home loss to Auburn and then dominate people for most of the schedule up front and

on the boards control the paint uh they have the same front line as last year the same four guys

that were their key rotation guys are back it's the back court that is vastly inferior to the

national title team um so I had them almost rated similar closer to the the other three one

seeds and now I have a little more concerns but I still think they're a reasonable like value play

in certain pull types because they are gonna be that fourth in popularity um what you talked about with

with um sharper pools too another thing we do is we give you like a bracket but then four altered

so if and I'll tell you right now like for example there is an Illinois to win the title at some

really large sizes as the recommendation in some of our brackets right because they are a leverage

play like their title odds are better than how often they're gonna be picked so you're basically

getting an Illinois to win ticket in a bracket at good prices um that you better do you

get go go betting it at a sports book and so that's a reasonable play but some of the alternate

brackets will have key things like Florida in the championship game or Vanderbilt in the final

four um and things like that opposite it with Michigan winning or Arizona winning and so

they'll reverse some of the uh key leverage plays that would go along with an Illinois ticket so

you can play five brackets together uh because that can sometimes it's the third bracket that hits

when you show up and you see the pick popularity is you're like ah I was on the I thought I was on

the value well my first bracket maybe maybe not as valuable but now my third is is a is a good

leverage play against that yeah and you're talking those key leverage plays going back to where

we're talking about earlier if you're in a bracket where it's very tilted towards needing to get

the champion right you don't want to risk your Illinois bracket by picking all these other

upsets and crazy things to happen like you like you said you're almost just buying the outright ticket

on Illinois via bracket because you're getting better odds than if you were to bet them out right um

let's Alex I'm going to talk to you to talk about injuries before we get even further and then

we'll talk about kind of the strength of the one seeds and whatnot I know there's a lot of injuries

this year particularly over the last few weeks that are are pretty meaningful yeah we'll try to

keep them to the pretty relevant list but there are quite a few such as Duke uh where was without

Patrick Gungva and the ACC tournament he should be back but wouldn't be surprised to be sat out

the opening game but they're starting point guard Caleb Foster broke his foot so I wouldn't expect

to see him in the tournament although he says he wants to get back at some point however they have

some depth guard with uh with with Caden Booser he's played actually pretty well lately um Michigan lost

their six man L.J. Cason um he's out for the season so that was pretty recent they still have some

depth at guard so not overly concerning there more concerning injury Texas Tech JT Topin out for

the season that was pretty catastrophic for them and then their lead guard Christian Anderson

strained his drawing in the conference tournament he's supposed to be back but their ceiling is

definitely capped in my mind with no top in um Gonzaga they've been out without Braden Huff most

of the season he's likely to miss the first weekend but trying to come back at some point they would

definitely need his size in my opinion to make a run um a lot on Graham EK shoulders there

unfortunate injury for BYU Richie Saunders out for the season he was her second best player kind of

cops the upside Ajay Debanza's great watch but really not sure how far they can get without um

uh Robin to his Batman Caleb Wilson broke his wrist he's out for UNC that's pretty devastating

for them Carter Welling for Clemson towards ACL he was their starting center they have some depth

they could probably overcome that for the first few rounds Louisville Michele Brown is pretty

questionable to play um he's had some back issues some rumors that he had a recurrent stuff

as back injury so not necessarily expecting to see him in the opening game um that's about it UCLA

Denton Bilado should be back they had some injuries last week but yeah long list a lot of these

happen the last few weeks so be interesting to see how these teams respond thank you uh the Huff

injury for Gonzaga's one that I'm eyeing because there's someone certainty on his return that's a

team that I think really gets mega squeezed in the sharper pools they have you know worse odds

than uh you know Purdue and Arkansas in that region so um I think the ownership theirs can be

really tame especially with the injury but um you're taking the risk that Huff's not with them

for that second weekend end that they you know even get there to begin with

Jack uh last year when we did the outline for this show we talked about the strength of the

one seeds I think the this that was since 2000 there's only four teams entering last season um

it's tournament with a Ken Palm rating greater than 35 and they all had made the final four two of

them won three of them made the championship game and then last year all four one seeds

about that criteria and of course we got all four one seeds in the final four last year

this year we have three teams not only above 35 but above 37 in Ken Palm in Duke, Michigan

and Arizona um so once you talk a little bit about the strength of the one seeds and then also

some of the other data you were sharing with me in terms of um even the two through six seeds and

then the weakness on the bottom of the bracket yeah it's another strong year for the one seeds

last year entering the tournament the one seeds had the highest average adjusted efficiency margin

margin on Ken Palm going into the tournament this year's group broke last year's record um and also

per will warn of basket under review it is also the strongest group of two seeds three seeds four

seeds five seeds six seeds and nine seeds and the second highest average adjusted efficiency

market for set margin for seven and eight seeds and then for the 12 through 16 seeds um it's all

among the weakest so I think we're kind of seeing some of the effects of NIL where talent flows

from the mid majors up to the high majors um and that's that's a lead to some of the higher seeds

being stronger than they have been historically um and that trend holds true with the one seeds yet

again especially with the top three um of Duke, Arizona, Michigan and then Florida's a little

bit lower um but still quite strong for a one seed yeah and then Jason among the one seeds I know

you said the pick data you're looking out right now has Duke as the clear favorite the market

odds whether it's due to you know some of those health concerns with Duke or just the draw for

Arizona they get to stay in the Pacific time zone Arizona actually is slightly edging them out

right now if you look in the sports book markets in terms of doesn't surprise me that doesn't

surprise me at all that's who I if I were handicapping I would have Arizona slightly powerated

above the others slightly um because of Duke's injuries Duke without them would be number one

Michigan is right there the questions there as we talked about with the injury the backup point guard

they haven't looked quite as dominant certainly in big 10 tournament play down the last 10 games

as they did in November December when they absolutely blew the doors off the people

at the players era festival and dominated Thanksgiving week and so the question there is are

they look kind of like Auburn last year look like the best team for the first three months of the

season and they're kind of getting passed by some of the other slightly as they were a veteran squad

came together quickly um but Michigan's certainly a title contender but I would have Arizona

slightly above and then Duke's such a high variance play but the issue there is they're coming if

they're going to come in as the most popular with a bullet it's tough to stomach in a standard

pull now maybe in sharper pulls you see people kind of play off of it and go elsewhere

and it doesn't hurt you to have a Duke in play but yeah I have concerns about Duke's variance we've

seen one seeds get these have some key injuries Virginia the year they were the first one seed to lose

hunter was hurt they were a short rotation and they lost a key player who was a future NBA player

and they lost as a one seed we saw Alabama a few years ago Brandon Miller battling some injuries

and getting knocked out in the sweet 16 so it does raise my like risk kind of tolerance

and these things matter at the margins as you're trying to decide which combos do I play

deep in the tournament well if people are going to have Duke is the most popular I probably want

to tend to play against them in most cases yeah especially in the casual pulls it looks like

you're in a smaller casual pull honestly going Arizona as your champion and getting some stuff

right around it looks looks pretty good right now but we'll we'll go through some more specific picks

now let's start with underrated teams then we'll do overrated teams talk a little bit about play style

and then go region by region after that so Jack I will let you start with your favorite underrated

team really team you up for the homework pick here yeah I'll go with the homework pick um I'll

say Illinois um we have lost a handful of close games I I think that close game lock at this point

is pretty well established as something that's pretty influenced by variants uh we haven't

won a game and over time so far this year in efficiency wise seventh on Ken Palm the second best

offense in the the country uh we've had injuries throughout the year to Kyle and Boswell

Andres their archivites they've they're healthy now they've been healthy for a while but you could

kind of use that to explain away the first Wisconsin loss uh the second one in the big ten tournament

not so much um but regardless I think if you just look at Ken Palm look at Barric Torbick look at

basically any um efficiency or power rating system you see Illinois being relatively underrated

as a three seed and then they happen to land in the region with the week is one seed and as a bonus

they get um a very weak six seed in the second round in North Carolina without Caleb Wilson um if

it is North Carolina if you use only a slight underdog there but regardless Illinois has a pretty

pretty clear path to the sweet sixteen um and the weakest one seed if they can get past Houston

I'm gonna I'm gonna pass on my underrated team because I'm tilting that I was in our slack chat

talking about Purdue a couple days ago as a team to keep an eye on as an underplay team and then

they went out at one of the big ten tournament and totally ruined my ownership there so I'm

protesting as a result of that and I've started to Alex for his underrated team I'll go with Vanderbilt

uh as a five seed twelfth in Ken Palm Duke Miles is returned over the last few weeks really given

them a spark um he's kind of a two guard and with Tyler Tanner pretty good backward duo there

if you look at the bracket um they should get past McNeese then they get a Nebraska team that's

kind of faded a bit not too concerned there that sets up a pinto matchup with Florida which we

talked about has some issues against strong guard play um I think Vandy can compete with anyone they

just beat Florida um so it's a pretty good spot for them and even further in that bracket Houston

it's a team that I don't think there is good as Houston has been the last few years they're

reliant on a superstar freshman guard which is not very Houston like we've seen them um

lose some gains they don't typically so I'm not super afraid of them either so I think Vanderbilt

has a pretty interesting path to make a run in this tournament Jason how about you

I'm gonna go with a team that is sitting there in the east um

seated is the five seed even though they won the biggest regular season and just beat the two seed

by 20 points I have them slightly over Vanderbilt of the teams on the five line that said they're

both in our top 12 I have say Johns as a borderline top 10 team right now now this is a team

that certainly had their issues and took took up one of the worst losses you'll see at Yukon

earlier in the year one that killed Rick Patino like they didn't make a basket for the last 18

minutes uh 17 minutes of that second half um but he made some changes and what one of the things

he did was he inserted a guard Dylan Darling certainly not like a star but is a better outside

shooter and more of a facilitator and and the teams close strong by just making that twitch

they've really close strong even before the Yukon play I think St. John's I mean I knew they were

going to get seeded as a five based on their non-conference they did not have a win over like a

a top team unlike Yukon but this St. John's team is dangerous out of that five spot now the problem is

they had my they're going against the the 12 seed I had marked as my most dangerous 12 in northern

Iowa as a sleeper who I think is the one that looks like a traditional 12 type of team that pulls

an upset better than their numbers at injuries current lineup is much better than what they've put

overall I hit on them as a futures pick for the MVC they went out and won it uh I think they're

plenty of quality on northern Iowa the problem is they're playing a five seed that I think is a

two or three C quality um but St. John's if they can get started there this is going to be a defensive

slugfest in that first round they can beat anybody in that region I including Duke I think now

they have Ezio fork and they do enough around him but he is a stud and that's the type of player

that can make a run so I don't know how many brackets I'll have them going on that run but

I think they create some risk for Duke on that region all right let's go to most overrated teams I'll

let you kick it off to start this time Jason overrated teams um well we probably would all end up

on a similar one that's one yeah but I'm not going to give them out I mean I don't think they're

going to draw that many picks picks advance deeply in the bracket I mean Yukon is the one in

the casual pools I mean this is not your slightly older cousins Yukon from two or three years ago

in terms of quality uh major issues sliding down the stretch I mean you're you're basically picking

because Danny Hurley is a two time national title winning coach and they're probably outside

the top 10 as I power eight teams today which means I don't even necessarily want to pick them if

they're getting fair value and I think they'll probably be overvalued and pick grade uh to me

they're kind of like when North Carolina was the one scene you talked about them be value but I

I still didn't want them in some cases to be one of my title breaks because I didn't think they were

a top eight type team and I really want to pick a top eight type team to win a title so if

Yukon's that team for me you silly is a dangerous right away for them if you silly wins that first

round game uh so they'd be on my short list there for sure I think Kansas just based on reputation and

what they could be talent wise versus what they've actually been in terms of consistency even

down the stretches Peterson's played more because that team has had games that look good and then

games where they looked at Trosius in the last month Alex you're over rated yeah Yukon was the one I

had lined up just if you filter on tour for the last six weeks they're 15th as a two seed they

lost a Marquette the close to the regular season they got boat raced in the Big East tournament um

they had some really big wins early in the season but that was like Illinois when Wagler played

13 minutes and then Florida before they kind of figured out their guard issues so I definitely

agree with that one um one that doesn't really line up with just like they'll analytics crowd is

Houston I just and not as high on Houston this year as I was last year um rely like I just

mentioned before relying on freshman guard play um they have some foul trouble consistently the front

court they just don't have that like front court score like Joanne Roberts last season so I'm

pretty worried that they'll hit a spot um rather early and and this bracket where they just can't

score enough to move on I will go I am wearing the North Carolina jersey I think in casual pool

as they'll still be pretty overrated where people might not be as including the injury and just

picking on name recognition there but I'll stick I'll stick with their rivals their enemies and Duke

as well Jason talked about the really high pick percentage for them to win the the champion ship

it probably should be closer than the other one seeds and if you're playing in any sort of

pool where Duke's going to be close to 2x owned as champ as Michigan and Arizona it just really

tough to believe that's the best way to play the pool even if you think Duke slightly better um

you're probably not getting your money in good at those odds unless you just have some other

contraining or you know you're super confident in with the final four jack uh why don't you round

it out here for overrated teams yeah so I'll start with the two injury ones in Texas tech and

North Carolina I think they should be mentioned here um from a seedline perspective just because

they're missing top five or ten players in the sport um but ignoring the injuries I'm going to

go with Virginia they were widely projected to be a four seed ended up as the as a three seed um

and they also get the strongest six seed I think clearly at the moment given the injuries that

North Carolina Louisville and BYU are dealing with so I think that there's a pretty decent chance

that Virginia doesn't make it out of the first weekend between them being slightly overseeded

as a three in Tennessee being a strong six and then uh jack I know you were quoting something to

me about from the Ken Palm blog about offense versus defense and I've already had a question in our

outline just curious people's tates um play style preferences if you've got two similar teams and

ones better on offense ones better on defense where you like to go maybe that's something that

doesn't actually matter in terms of ability to pick the winner but maybe matters in terms of

sweat equity um what you prefer to live and live and die by but um it seemed like there might be

something there in terms of these top teams jack in most years preferring the ones that are a little

bit more silent towards offense than defense yeah in his blog Ken Palm kind of mentioned offhandedly

that offensively minded teams tend to tend to fair better in that generally teams with a better

offense than defense win more I think that kind of checks out logically um in that there's some

stats that we know a impact defensive rating quite a bit in defensive three point percentage and

defensive free throw percentage which is pretty much all luck um and though that is both a high

variance that and affects defensive rating a lot whereas on offense you control your three point

rating and your free throw lighting a lot better than you can defend against it um and so I think

from that perspective it kind of makes sense to expect offensively minded teams to win um with that

being said the top four teams are all both strong on offense and defense um but Purdue is a team who

has lost a lot of big matchups especially at home this year um but Ken Palm mentioned that in their

five um high leverage marquee home losses opponents are shooting 50.8% from three against them um

we know that's a stat that's pretty impacted by luck and we've kind of seen over the past

few days at the big 10 tournament that Purdue has that ceiling to be to once you they just be

miss again um on sunday so so I think generally preferring offense um would be my lean

nice that makes sense let's look at the region by region pick data uh we'll look at some of

the stuffers advanced rate um first projected uh pick data versus the advanced rate probability

where some leverage spots are there and then where you know the sharper pulls might be different

getting real specific let's uh start I guess Duke the overall one sees the will start in the east uh

Jason um just any general thoughts on the east region I know you're a little bit down on Duke already

yeah I mean I'm not down I think Duke is the favorite out of this region clearly but they're also

heavy chalk um the question you have to debate there is how far do I take them because we've seen

this area you don't want to knock out a team early and then lose points and lose points and lose

points if if they don't win the title but they go to the final four um so that's the debate there in

the east I think that there's a balanced region outside of Duke because I think Yukon is in a strong

two and UCLA is a strong seven Michigan state is an okay three at this point I think they're not

playing their best ball um and you have Louisville who is a high variant six with with the injury

concerns and the Kenpon metrics now I will say their numbers might be a little inflated because they

put like 60 point blowouts on the weakest teams on the schedule and those all count equally in the

Kenpon metrics but I do think that sometimes you know that could cause you to slightly

overvalue a team like Louisville when when they have so many of their best performances against

really weak teams that can't even stand up to them um but still Louisville's a threat they can

be up and down they certainly can make a run and and then south south Florida is probably your best

version of like a non power five that we don't really know about and has probably a high variance

range of outcomes because how good are they really right we've seen these teams make runs to

the final four Florida Atlantic VCU things like that south Florida probably fits that profile more than

anybody else in this in this bracket uh so I think there's a lot of like teams that could advance

out of this region I think it's pretty balanced and then I mentioned St. John's on the other side

of the bracket is the five and um so I think it's a very balanced bracket but we're seeing heavy

picks on Duke coming out of this region Yukon being slightly overvalued but most of the picks

are on Duke to advance and keep advancing and win at the final four and high rate and win the

national title yeah one of the teams it seems a little bit underseated by some of the advanced

metrics at least is UCLA as the seven seed um tricky for me to know what pool size to like really

try to take advantage of that in however um we've got two people on here with Yukon as the

overrated team if you're a really large pool you can probably pick that upset in the second round

or you could um play sort of the the the free roll upset that we talked about earlier where you

don't have Yukon going to the final four maybe not to the elite eight you hope UCLA pulls that upset

but um you know you know you don't risk losing all those Yukon points um did want to point out

UCLA as a team that seems like it's a little bit underseated at least by the market odds Alex

thoughts on the east region yeah this is the region where I have the most conviction on the one

just being able to overwhelm everyone in its path um although it doesn't line up with the the

pick data great but like just from a basketball perspective I have I think like a kind of a

the carpets rolled out for Duke to kind of march to the final four um not a believer in Yukon

not scared of Michigan State that just they can't shoot well enough this year in my opinion

Candace is kind of in a niggbah I don't think it has a super high ceiling a little bit concerned

with with St. John's the because they're they're feisty but ultimately I don't see them matching up

super well versus Duke with their lack of of guard play outside of like the diminutive uh Dylan

darling who kind of just like all does it all with like grit and um perseverance so um which

would be funny if he's the one that takes down Duke given their history with with guards like that

but yeah I think Duke just kind of walks the final four in this bracket I I want to throw out I

think it's interesting that Louisville plays a high variant style of basketball they shoot the

fourth most threes in the country and so in theory that should give them a chance to be anyone

if the shots are falling in practice that's not what has happened this year they are one in eight

in quad one eight games but in those nine quad one eight games against the best of the best

they are at a negative seven point two percent three point delta um so shot variants has not been

in their favor in those high leverage games um but I I think they're at least interesting and

it's worth pointing out that they do shoot enough threes where they can hang with and beat anyone

if the shots are falling on on a particular day yeah before we move on we touch on this a little

bit earlier but I think Michigan state between casual and sharp pulls you can see like vastly different

ownership data where they're probably overpicked to go far in the casual pools and maybe underpicked

a little bit in the sharp pulls yeah and on UCLA by the way real quick UCLA I did not mention that

you you mentioned them sleeper one of my sleepers the problem is how far you want to pick them

this team is way better now than they were two months ago uh they're healthy and they have their

best lineup and if billado plays their their healthy and they have donovan dent a great point guard

and with the current lineup four great shooters around them and they didn't have those four

shooters on the court until the Illinois game that they won in overtime and came back that was the

launch of this tight this particular brand of UCLA team and they've been rolling ever since so

to me they are undervalued it's a question of how but yeah Louisville like Louisville they can shoot

threes I think they have four guys that shoot over four percent that are now starting yeah that's

you could call out um let's go to Arizona's region in the west uh Arizona the favorites by the

market right now uh decent draw for them they get to stay out west um all the way through to the

final four um the other point I want to make when we're talking about sharp pulls versus casuals

that I didn't get to but I noticed last year there was a crazy disparity in these round two matchups

where one team was a little bit favored particularly in the four five games where in these draft

kings high stakes pool the four seed slightly favor over the five was picked at really a very very

heavy clip more than uh you would expect and I think you could see the same thing here with

Arkansas over west constant in the second round there's some other examples um we just went over

the east region it would be flipped the five versus the four but you might see seeing johns

picked over Kansas in these sharp pulls at like a really really high rate um just where

the sharp people are going to take the favored team and really lean into that and not necessarily

consider the variance and and what the ownership is elsewhere in some of these spots they don't look

like they're pivotal leverage spots but they do sort of add up um with that said Alex I'll let you

talk about the west region no I definitely agree there because just looking at the bracket

based on what Arkansas didn't SEC tournament like that's a team you can easily pencil through

to the first two rounds so if they do face Wisconsin the second round totally agree I think

there'll be a huge gap in that ownership people just easily right in Arkansas over west constant

and we've seen west constant have the ability to kind of shoot themselves in any game um whether

in or in or out and they have some dynamic guards and a blackwell and void you can put up big

performances um but I think the public will generally be on the eight cup side after winning

SEC tournament um so I think that's a really good point by you um but I don't think anybody in

that top half threatens Arizona they're so deep and so solid um I think those other teams the four

and five just have too many weaknesses uh for them to threaten Arizona much but the bottom of the

bracket super interesting with a BYU team with maybe the best score in the country again it's like

against Aga team that's probably getting slept on a little bit I think either of those teams could

give Purdue a challenge we saw Purdue kind of hit their ceiling here I I think they'll be a bit

overplayed based on what the odds will actually be in that sweet 16 game so um I think fading

Purdue getting to the lead out lead eight is probably going to be a beneficial play although it's

kind of tough to do and practice just based on the ceiling we saw them have um with cloth playing

a lot more and playing well there are totally different team um he did not do much at all I think

from like January to like two weeks ago he was averaging like 22 minutes putting up like eight

points and five rebounds he's just come alive the last couple weeks of the season and and kind

of made them a totally different team Jason thoughts on the West yeah I I love Arizona here I will say

I will say that I actually think the biggest threats could be in Arkansas or Wisconsin now the

reason I say that is not you're not because I think that they have clear weaknesses on defense

Arkansas does that that Arizona should be able to exploit but we have seen teams like this out of

the four five I mentioned Michigan back with Tray Burke who took down Kansas as a one seed in the

sweet 16 when they just out when they just want to shoot out and one over time and they had like

NBA talent on that team didn't have great defensive metrics but we're like a top five offense

coming in the tournament and beat Kansas and then once they cleared that hurdle they made a run

and that's what I see here is like these seem probably aren't going to be Arizona but I could see

them making a run if they do I don't love the other side of the bracket honestly because I think

in Gonzaga's injuries BYU's injuries you know my Missouri Tigers and I I would be surprised if

they made a run with their turnover issues even though they have been better Miami it's been a great

story but I'm not sure they have what it takes and so then you have to do so I don't I don't love

the bottom half of this bracket but I do think there is high variance danger in a in a matchup like

Arkansas Wisconsin who has played better in Wisconsin's knocked off teams with size because what

they can do and they've had three point shooting variants go their way unlike what you talked about

Louisville and these big matches where they have bigs that can pop out and shoot and can pull

Arizona's bigs away from the basket so if they do have that high variance shooting game they can

do that we've seen them do it to Michigan we've seen them do it to Illinois teams that have bigs

that you need to pull away from the basket that has success so that's how I thought on the west

yeah I think that Arizona um likely wins this one I do think Wisconsin has one of the best guard

duos in the country like we've said and Arkansas has maybe the best guard um in the country in

deris a cup so I I think that certainly it's not a lock um on the bottom half of that bracket

got another terrific guard and bring Smith um but I think Arizona's just so dominant inside that

I lean that way all right let's go to the midwest Michigan uh the third overall number one seed here

Jack I'll let you kick it off this time yeah this is another one where I think the one seed wins

that's not to say that it's uh there Michigan's a lot to get get out of here um but I think that

their dominance inside with today Mara and whereas Johnson combined with a defensive versatility

of Yaxxel on the board is just really tough to beat um with that being said Iowa state has one

of the best players in the country in Joshua Jefferson and and really three of the best players

in the country if you throw Taman Lipsi and Mieland mom chillovich in there as well um and Iowa

state forces a lot of turnovers too which is an interesting matchup with Michigan who

is really dominant on everything offensively except pretty average in terms of turnover rate so

maybe if Iowa state can force enough turnovers to knock them off there um and then Virginia is

a little weak for a three Tennessee strong for a six I think they have a shot um but in general I

think I think Michigan um is the best team in this region and likely gets up yeah a couple things

I was looking at in this region uh Iowa state is a team that I do think is pre-protected from

ownership as far as a champion and like both casual and sharp pools just looking at it um

so that's that's the team I'm keeping an eye on just relative to market odds that they could be

a bit underplayed in a larger field tournament I know it's difficult to agree with Jack that

Michigan's definitely the favorite here to come out of it you also get Tennessee in the second

round against Alex's overrated team in Virginia as a six three potential upset and then another one

of those sharp pool things but a lot of times those again those small point spreads around one

and two the sharp pools maybe is just overly lean on the favorite team you get that in like an

eight nine Georgia versus St. Louis where if I'm in a casual pool I'm probably just taking the

favorite team when when I think the casuals are like coin flipping those games but then in you

know the sharp pools I might actually take the team that's 45% to win um because it might be picked

at at a 30% clip um Jason your thoughts here in the Midwest yeah so this is one this is where I

think Michigan got the best draw to the elite eight and in that I don't love either of these four

fives uh because of the injury issues you talked about like if you had the Arkansas Wisconsin group with

this one I think it would swing the numbers but that means Michigan probably has better advanced odds

than than we you know if I were to line it up I think they got the best draw of of the teams to

get to the elite eight now Iowa State's a tough out I'm probably not in the bracket picking anybody

about Michigan or I was state out of this region honestly um I was state if I want to mix it up

for some more value because they are being picked at about half the time of Michigan and probably

that's that's value relative to the true odds but Michigan is the favorite because I think the past

better Alex you seem like you were nodding in terms of picking in Michigan or I was state out of

this region yeah not really much to add here I think we're headed to a Michigan Iowa state

showdown um it seems pretty straightforward for their past obviously upsets can happen but I

if I'm picking some spots this is not a region where I'm doing such let's go to the final region

to south regional and this is the region with Florida um the weakest of the four one seeds but

still a very very good team and this is a tough one for me because you've got more paths the teams

like you know Vanderbilt Illinois who we've talked about as being underseated potentially making it

but at the same time I really can see people just saying like they're afraid to pick against the

ones and the other three and it's very easy for them to pick against the one in Florida so um trying

to figure out what to do here um Alex I'll give you first go at the south region yeah of all the

four this seems like the potential like chaos region um where you just get some funky matchups

actually come into fruition like is it unlikely that Illinois plays Vanderbilt in the lead eight yes

very unlikely but like that one wouldn't surprise me as much as that happened in another regions

just where we're at kind of the state of college basketball so um I think one of these top two

two seeds are going down before the lead eight um so definitely more upset heavy in this region

compared to the other ones for me um taking shots both Illinois and Vanderbilt probably not in

the same bracket necessarily but I see uh different paths for that to occur um yeah Houston's really

the one that'll be strongly fading here if Houston goes to the final four I'm not gonna have much shot

and my bracket pulls yeah I think I'm on the Houston fail I feel like I'm on the wrong side of

Houston every single year one way or another so hopefully Alex we're on the right side this year

but um I do think the Florida thing the biggest impact there is is Houston maybe being overplayed

this region also has one of the tighter eleven six matchups in terms of sports book odds we've

hit on the injury to Caleb Wilson for North Carolina VCU only two and a half point dogs

here in casual pools in particular VCU is probably underpicked in the first round um again

the can there's not a lot of first round double digit seeds you're looking at at 11 plus for

for outright upsets um Jack your thoughts on this region yeah I think in casual pools um and I

would consider most pools to be casual I think this would be the region to fade a one I think you've

got analytically at least um I know I know you guys are on the fade Houston train but from an

analytic standpoint um Houston's a strong two Illinois is a strong three Van he's a strong five

so I think from that standpoint in most pools you're probably gonna want to fade Florida if you're

looking to gain leverage um but I could see this being in like the really sharp pools what we

were talking about earlier where the whole thing swings the other way um everyone knows it's the

weakest one and the strongest of the the next few seeds and we see Florida kind of come in under

own so if you're in a sharp pool um I kind of based on the discussion at least we've had the day

I kind of like Florida um maybe even to go all the way really considering it seems like they're

the very popular pick um very popular sharp pick I guess um to not make it out of the region

Jason yeah I I think Florida is an interesting case because it was a funny champ so you think they

might get popularity for that reason but they're also the fourth one seed they were last year

two but it was different they were emerging they had won the SEC tournament uh I had really

looked good down the stretch and the cat was out of the bag um but they're the fourth of the one

seeds in the in the bracket and when people tend to like oh I can't pick all one seeds who are

they gonna not pick it's Florida uh so in our pick data we're actually seeing very tight between

Houston and Florida like it's pretty even on like how they're being picked at the final four

then there's a gap to Illinois I think this is a high leverage region that could decide some

pools because you have that Illinois Houston matchup potentially in the sweet 16

the winner of that is a threat to go on a run if whoever comes out of that game

if Illinois is underpicked they are a high leverage advance that most people aren't going to be

picking and that way it's a lot like Yukon is the four seed three years ago out of a tough

west region that had Kansas Gonzaga UCLA and then Yukon is the four and I think people laid off

because of that and Yukon came at great odds in brackets I could see that with Illinois

in the in the casual pools so it's gonna be a high leverage call I probably I mean you can mix

in some Vanderbilt but I'm probably not going outside one of these three but like you said

one of them's probably getting knocked off one of them's probably making that run who is it

that's gonna decide pools like who did do you have the team that came out of the south is to me the

the high variance question of this entire four brackets uh yeah I do want to circle back to a point

Alex made like if you're playing in a really large pool you know thousands of entries and you've

really got you know maybe tens of thousands of entries and you've really got to differentiate

I do think there's a little bit of a bias people have where they they might want to pick one

kind of upset seem to go further but they have a tough time doing two in the same region even

though there's not really a correlation there so the point Alex made on you're possibly getting

this Illinois Vanderbilt match up uh is really interesting in those really large pools where people

might pick one or the other but be afraid to pick against both the one and two seed uh you know

to double fade them in a very large uh term obviously not something you're gonna do um the

risk is unnecessary in a smaller field pool let's close this out with the pick to win it um Jason

you're the guest we will give you first rights on the pick to win it the honor guest my bracket

of integrity would have Arizona meaning if I didn't worry about how people were picking anything

um I think you said they moved to the favorite the relative favorite in the market odds that

makes complete sense to me as I was by rating teams I have them number one uh I certainly think

those other teams are within a point or two of them on a neutral in this tournament but I think

Arizona has the fewest question marks for me coming in of all the four top seeds are all the

possible contenders so I have Arizona number one then I think it's a mix because man that Duke is a

high variance call uh it really is this injuries I think it crop crop up in ways I mean they they

were on the ropes against Florida State they were in it in the final minutes against the Virginia team

that grinded it against them I mean their biggest danger might be the eight nine game I know we

talked about that region but like I see Ohio State you know uh TCU or teams that are better than

their I think full season numbers um so I'm a little worried about Duke but Arizona is my call

on on national championship pick and I think probably two would be Michigan on the same side of

the bracket would be you have let's maybe do one your your bracket of integrity I like the way

you worded that uh what you really think is going to happen and then your favorite champ in let's

say a large pool that's just most underplayed relative to to where you think they're picked by the

public so I'm gonna get I'm looking at our full data here with Duke drawing so much we show value

on a lot of teams so my favorite honestly there's two and they're on opposite the bracket and

they're the teams that are will be analytical darlings that coming out of it be Iowa State Illinois

like in a really large pool riding one of them and then going mostly chalk with the final four

opposite them I think is a perfectly valid strategy you're you're not you're acknowledging

I'm probably not winning this pool but I'm getting good odds on this team to win the title

Alex uh same for you give your who you think's gonna win the title and then your favorite pick

by where you think ownership's gonna land for a large I'll go with Duke as my champion of integrity

if you will um I just think part of the reason they struggled a bit in the CC tournament is playing

back-to-back games they were clearly gassed especially Cameron Booser in the tournament they

least get it a day off in between rounds um they should get Gongba back with helps with their

front court and I think they've gotten some experience playing without Caleb Foster that's been

beneficial still winning we've seen them beat the highest end of teams like they took down Michigan

this year um and the reason I like them the most is the champion is they get to play the winner of

the south in the the final four um one last game potentially against like the strongest of the ones

in Arizona or Michigan so um I'm going with Duke to win it all and uh if I'm feeling out one bracket

in a large field like free contest I'm probably gonna have Illinois winning it um already have a ticket

for them to win the championship I had it fat for a couple months and I I will just do that as my

my large field uh champion check yeah I'm gonna go with Duke as well in my bracket of integrity um

I think that they've just been the best team all year uh it sounds like Gongba should be back I

think he's a lot more important than Caleb Foster I know Foster's been significantly improved this

year um relative to his previous seasons there um but I still don't think he's like a particularly

needle moving player to be honest then as long as Gongba's healthy um I think this is the best team

in my in a large field I'm gonna go Iowa State um I think that they do have a pretty good path

to an elite eight um I think they can beat Michigan um yeah I honestly as an Illinois fan

if it's Florida I worry about our front court holding up just from a basketball matchup perspective

um I think that we can be man-hiddled um in the paint and so I I would keep an eye

personally on how the how low the Florida ownership goes um as well yeah I have similar thoughts

bracket of integrity I'm gonna go Arizona I'll go Jason we'll even this out so two Arizona

two Duke but very similar thoughts on by ownership um casual pools Illinois looks great I think

sharper pools the ownership on Iowa State's a little bit more protected would wouldn't be

surprised if Illinois was actually picked at a higher rate than than Iowa State in some of those

sharper pools but I really am keeping my eye on Florida uh if I'm I'm playing multiple brackets

in in some sharper pools I will have at least one with Florida you'll get into the title gain

in some capacity just just to take that gamble that they get squeezed and if I'm wrong it's not

a terrible pick but if I'm right I could really be getting uh my money in pretty good I'd be

pretty shocked if they got steamed you know well beyond or even up to even with their their true

odds just given the setup of all the other one seeds this year all right that's it for the bracket

contest traditional style strategy but survivor also become in a more popular format for March

madness so spend a little bit of time talking about the strategy there Alex I know we're looking

at split in a few entries and uh you've already been pretty into the weeds so once you talk a

little bit high level survivor for March madness yeah so last year was the first time I played

uh survivor style and I think I put in 12 entries uh among us and it was kind of an afterthought um

its survivor uh the day and night before I'll just put in some teams we'll figure it out as we go

turns out completely wrong approach so this year in the lab actually trying we're efforting um and

it's actually a pretty interesting game because I think you have to accept that if it's going to be

pure chalk you're just going to lose um and I know we both listened to the the public Tory

public Tory podcast where they had a gallon haul on there talking about survivor

circus survivor NFL but really the goal is to win it's not to survive and people play to survive

so taking that approach and looking back at how I played last year I think we're we're

burning higher seeds way too early you say you go through you map things out you can use three

seeds in the beginning two seeds one seed works out problem there that happens you're

spling the the pot with a high number of entries you don't want that you want to win so

this year taking a different approach I think you actually need to start lower on the seed line

in your opening rounds um maybe take some four seeds five seeds and it leaves a lot more

optionality down the road um especially if some of these ones and twos actually get upset in the

middle rounds of the bracket um you can really paint yourself in a corner if you're just using

high seeds to start yeah I know being aware of that ownership early uh I'm still scarred I think

it was two years ago a BYU was like a pretty decent favorite as a five but people didn't have

them going far so everyone picked them and I was you know eliminated swiftly in survivor uh

like the second game of the day and the point isn't that I was eliminated they're going to take

risks you're going to lose but I was eliminated with a pick that was like 60 percent picked by the

field like just absolutely insane so um you do want to be aware of kind of that obvious logical

pick of oh you know they're they're decent favorites I'm not going to use them later that's sort

of what everybody's looking at if they're plain to survive as Alex noted where they're kind of

mapping out their bracket and that becomes the obvious pick if things break chalk that's who you

want to pick um but it's also a spot where if you avoid them there's potential for the field

to get eliminated on something they're taking at a way higher rate than um they probably should

Jason or Jack any any survivor thoughts before we close up

to be honest I haven't done it done a survivor um so I'll leave that to you you and Alex is the

experts there yeah so Alex hit on some of them what we try to do kind of about how I think about

it is is is again you know the rules how many picks do I gonna make because every pulls a little

different someone you got to make two picks on Thursday and then two more on Friday and that

gets really tough uh some you pick one you know a couple by round but you don't have to split by day

if you got to do them by like day the schedules get complicated like I don't want to pick two

teams that are going to be in the same region even though they play on Thursday and then Friday

because then I'm blocking myself in the future either way so you got to think about that like you

you want to have a chip in play right you don't want to be blocking yourself um so I'm thinking

balancing risk in two ways there's future future risk I run out of a team I don't have a team that's

in the final four and there's current risk and you're kind of trying to find the blend of that

like you don't want to be a complete I'm taking no risk of running out of a team in the final four

because like you said you may need to be a little contrarian on when you use a team

but you also don't want to be taking 30% teams in the first round maybe even 45s now by rounds

sweet sixteen you might be on underdog that's 40% because half the pulls got to be on the other

side because there's only three or four games that day right and so you got to think about that

I'm looking to play against the public more after round one when the number of options gets limited

and they get funneled to things like Missouri is a seven versus Princeton is a 15 things like

that you'll always see like if there's a big upset St. Peter's one guess who got picked against

the next game and the public got crushed the people that picked against St. Peter's in round two

and then the sweet sixteen so you got to figure out where you avoid those really popular picks

versus they're the picks that make sense well yeah they make sense if they make too much

since the birds can take so it's a balancing act very much yeah I'm glad you pointed out the

format stuff because I did a couple of different pulls last year particularly in the E. Lee 8 I

think is where the two pulls I was indifferentiated between picking by day or just picking one team

for that round and obviously the more picks you have to make the more intelligently you have to

map it out as Jason said to not block yourself else anything else on survivor before we close things

out yeah one specific example of when it's probably not beneficial to kind of go with the field

and I'm talking about the DK1 specifically where you're picking one team a day up until the

E. Lee 8 where you pick one for that round and then one final four and one one champion so it ends

up being nine picks but it looks like on day one Illinois is like a 23 point favorite I think

they're going to be rather popular in this format however I think they're much more valuable to

use on the third day of the contest where they get either UNC or VCU in the round of 32 and I think

of a lot of people below them on the first day they will not have them available in the third day

and forces them into a more sub optimal pick that day which provides your entries a lot of value

moving forward so that's this one specific example where I think you know a little bit different

on day one maybe instead of taking a 23 point favorite you're taking like a 15 point favorite

Arkansas and also it's something Jason alluded to it's just like rotating your a lot of your

entries on the DK format should be over the first four days you should be taking one team from

each region not to block yourself and so there's a lot of like path optimization you have to do

which each specific entry cool yeah I'm looking forward to participating in those this year

we do have an ETR college basketball product as well so if you enjoyed this podcast you'll

probably enjoy that as well Alex is our lead over there Alex why don't you talk a little bit about

what the ETR CPP product includes yeah so our college basketball product includes best ball rankings

player props in discord and DFS content both projections ownership shows written content

on most of the slate so have you all covered one product one price for the month of March and

yeah looking forward to it should be pretty well this is always so much fun each year

Jason I'll throw it to you to talk about what you do at pool genius I know you can check out pool

genius.com slash ETR if you're interested in signing up over there the link will be in the description

Jason tell us a little bit about how things work over at pool genius for bracket time yeah we I

mean I've been I've been working nonstop for the last week we have bracket picks product we have

where you can get customized brackets unlimited number you tell us your pool size you tell us your

rules you get five up to five custom brackets for that particular pool the main bracket the recommended

alternates you can get unlimited number brackets you set up as many polls as you want

uh you we have a survivor product and it's upgraded this year where it's going to give you advice

not only on show you data and projected ownership but it's going to now introduce more logic

into team combinations oh you've already used this team tell us who you used here's the recommendation

so um did I lose y'all uh so that's that's that's that's a one we have a Calcutta tool you can jump

in that you can get it all as part of like a package but those are the products we have and we

have women's brackets by the way last year I think it was like 60 something percent of our people

that used our women's brackets one money because we had Yukon South Carolina's our main recommendation

and and if you recall people didn't have Yukon last year over USC USC was actually uh being picked

more frequently than Yukon so that was huge um so we have all four of those I have been doing

team notes we did a great rundown of the injuries I do team notes on all 68 teams I have notes on

CNI I have notes on pen I have notes on everybody you could want uh and explaining why we rate them

the way we do based on studying their rosters their styles lineup changes things like that so we dig

into it to power eight teams to watch market numbers and then we put out simulations to drive our

brackets so that's what we do there and uh put a lot of time into it with love to have you all

check it out lots of great stuff there if you like it we got advancement odds data grid popularity

numbers all that stuff really appreciate everybody tuning in for this podcast have a lot of fun

doing this um that'll be all for us best of luck in all your March Madness pool

you