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In this episode we review why I purchased, and continue to buy, Meta.
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month. As investors, we're always told that our portfolios should represent the best companies
in the stock market. We should carefully analyze these companies, look over the qualities of them,
and then create a portfolio of all the best companies put together. And we should buy into these
companies when they're on dips when the stock price goes down. Well, the problem with this advice
is that many investors don't follow it. They buy into good companies initially, but then when
those companies go down, they get concerned. Because with every dip in a company, there's an
explanation. There's some reason the company deserves to dip. And that is the case with meta
platforms, a company that is currently in a dip. It's a newer position of mine, and I'm down $16,000
in it. And this is a stock that I continue to buy. In fact, I've been continuing to buy this company
over and over again. I originally bought $45,000 of meta January 29th. That was for $737.
Only a few days later, I bought the stock for even cheaper as the stock price continued down.
February 2nd, I bought another $10,000 of it. I bought another $10,000 the next day. Then as
the stock price dropped another $20, I bought another $20,000 worth. I continued to buy the company.
February 4th, another $40,000 of meta. This was a big buy. The same day later that evening,
another $10,000 into meta, around $672 per share. Two days later, February 6th, I bought another
$10,000 worth of meta at $657. The stock price has continued dropping, and I continue buying.
Three days later, I bought another $10,000. February 11th, I bought another $8,000 worth of meta at $669.
On March 13th, I bought $3,300 worth of meta at $613. This was as the stock recently plunged
due to a news article. A news article causing what is one of the dumbest tips in a major stock.
This is a New York Times breaking article about how meta has delayed the rollout of their new AI
model, the avocado model, and this caused meta to drop another 4% on the day.
Wall Street is pricing in a lot of pessimism on meta today, treating it as a stock that's not
up to task, one that can't create a competitive AI model, one that's delaying its plans,
one that can't compete with Google, a company wasting hundreds of billions of dollars on
CapEx, all of that is being priced into this stock, and this is one of the cases where I believe
the market is clearly wrong. Meta is already a significant holding in my portfolio. In fact,
as we look at the weightings of my overall portfolio, meta is currently in third place,
and that's why the stock is going down. If meta stock goes up even a little bit,
this could become my largest position. I feel very confident on meta, but investors aren't so sure,
and we can go ahead and look at the news why. Most of the concerns can be summarized around this
New York Times article. It really epitomizes the reason that investors are so concerned about meta,
the reason that the company has recently gone through dip after dip after dip, and the reason
that the stock is not making gains despite growing revenue quickly and being at a low valuation.
And I want to really highlight how ridiculous and absurd this article is. For example,
here we have the author from the New York Times starting things off with a little background.
He says Mark Zuckerberg, the chief executive of meta, said in July that the company's new
artificial intelligence models would quote, push the front hair in the next year or so.
Unquote. Now, Mr. Zuckerberg, who has invested billions in the AI race, appears increasingly
unlikely to hit that deadline. Three people with knowledge of the matter said. Now, this is just
an example right at the start of the article of misrepresenting the truth. When you look at what
Mark Zuckerberg actually said, he said that they would push the front hair in the next year or so.
He did not say exactly 12 months, he said the next year or so. This was not like some type of hard
deadline. He didn't give you an exact timeline. A year or so typically means it could be a year
or so meaning beyond a year, but already they've ignored the language and have pinned them down
to an exact timeline. Met his new foundational AI model, which the company has been working on for
months, has fallen short of the performance of leading AI models from rivals like Google, Open AI
and Thropic on internal tests for reasoning, coding, writing, said the people. Now, they're not
authorized to speak publicly about these confidential matters. So these are people that we don't really
know. There may be employees in meta or people associated with it. We have no confirmation of who
they actually are, but they've assured us that meta is behind. They're behind in their AI models.
So if you look at this a little bit differently, they're basically saying that meta, which started
on this months ago, hasn't caught up and surpassed the industry leaders in this category that have
been working on their models for years and years and years for the better part of a decade. Now,
to any rational person that seems entirely reasonable, that meta has not yet caught up and surpassed
them. But to investors just browsing through this, it sounds a little bit concerning. Meta is behind
is the message. It continues on saying the model codenamed avocado outperformed Meta's previous AI
model and did better than Google's Gemini 2.5 model from March. Two of the people said, but it has
not performed as strong as Gemini 3.0 from November. They said. So that's where we're at right now.
Meta, which just started months ago, has already surpassed Gemini 2.5, which was Google's best
released model up until last March. Now, Google has recently came out with a much better model
called Gemini 3.0. The Gemini 3.0 models are insanely good at logic reasoning math. It's actually
very good at deduction. It gets information very, very accurately. So meta has already just starting
out surpassed 2.5, but they're not quite up to Gemini 3.0. They haven't quite got there in their
internal tests. Now, because of this, because they haven't quite caught up to the industry leading
models, they want to delay their current model release to at least May from this month.
So they're pushing it back two months. Now, this is what caused a lot of investors become concerned
about meta to sell out of the stock. At least that's what we saw in the stock price. We had meta's
stock price dropped 5% in a single day after this news release. Investors caught wind of this delay
and they punished the stock. To add insult to injury, there's the additional news that these
anonymous people reporting this, whoever they may be, said that they added the leaders of meta's
AI division have insisted discussing temporarily licensed Gemini to power the company's AI products,
though no decisions have been reached. So another thing that's happening right now is meta
is in talks to potentially partner with Gemini to power some of their AI products,
until they can get their own models up to speed. So there we have the bulk of the news here.
Basically, meta started working on AI a few months ago. They've already surpassed many of the
industry leading models of last year, but they have not caught up or surpassed the models that
are currently the flagship models from the best tech companies in the world. Investors have read
into this and said that this is a massive problem. Investors have also read into the delay,
and a two-month delay for meta means the stock deserves to sell off 5% according to Wall Street.
Now I believe it's worth pointing out how incredibly myopic the market is in the case of meta.
If we look at what happened, the stock sold down 5% over the past week on this news.
The stock is now trading at a 21-forward PE ratio. On 2027's earnings, it's trading at 18 times.
That's with the analyst estimates incorporating all of this cap expend, all of the meta AI spend,
all of the reality labs. That's everything. It's still at an 18 times earnings on next year
based on these estimates. Meta could grow its revenue over 20% into the 25% range in 2026.
Now when we look at the delay of this AI model by two months, I'm going to assume that the majority
of you had no clue that this AI model Avocado was planning on being released in this month
in the first place. Most investors had no clue about this. Yet when they heard wind of a delay,
they sold the stock. We can also look at other counter examples to show how meta cross compares
with other tech leaders. For example, meta is trading at a 1.57 trillion dollar valuation.
So just under 1.6 trillion is a market cap. When we compare this to Tesla, Tesla is currently
trading at a 1.5 trillion dollar market cap, meaning that meta and Tesla are roughly the same size.
One of the major differences with Tesla and Meta is that Tesla hasn't been growing for the past two
years. From mid 2023, Tesla's revenue growth has stopped halted and even gone down. The company
is shrinking 3% year over year. We can also compare their net income against each other. We have Meta
in blue and Tesla in red. This is what they look like stacked upside by side. Last year, on a
trailing 12 month basis, Tesla made $3.79 billion in net income. Meta made $60.46 billion in net income.
Meta's literally orders of magnitude more profitable than Tesla today. Tesla's revenues are shrinking
Meta's are growing. In terms of delays, there's no company that epitomizes delaying products more
than Tesla. When we look at Elon, specific predictions on his robotaxi, he said in 2020,
maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robot
axies on the road. Of course, that hasn't happened quite yet. In 2026, multiple years later,
nearly half a decade later than predicted, we're still not at that point of his previous predictions.
But the punishment that Tesla gets for this is a stock that is at a $1.5 trillion valuation
with a 200 PE ratio. A stock that investors are so enthused about, they'll pay nearly any price.
To put the valuation discrepancy in perspective, this is what it looks like over the past trailing gear.
The trailing PE ratio of Tesla has gone up from 90 times to over 360 times. Meta has stayed at
roughly 26 times. Now, I don't bring this up to complain about the valuations of different
companies or to gripe about the market and how Wall Street wants to price stocks. In fact,
I bring it up for the opposite reasons. I believe the market's wrong. I think that Tesla
continues to be overpriced and Meta continues to be dramatically underpriced. We won't be able
to tell immediately, but we will over time. Meta is a company that continues to grow very fast.
It's a company that's expected to grow fast this year. It's a company that has its entire
business model reliant on ad revenue from millions of small businesses. It represents global
GDP growth. Every small company that needs to get word out about its product uses Meta. Meta is
getting increasingly good, increasingly sophisticated with how they generate their ads,
how they optimize them, how sellers can list products and generate marketing materials,
how relevant and good those ads are for their consumers. The market's focused and fixated on
short-term metrics, like the release of some AI model avocado that nobody will even remember
in a year. But the long-term perspective of Meta is sound. It's a company trading at a
relatively low valuation. There's not much expectations priced into this stock. It trades
at a low price to sales, a low EV to EBITDA. The free cash yield is also healthy even given the
fact that they're pouring money into CapEx. And on the note of their CapEx. Investors look at
this as them potentially getting a low return on their massive investment. But one of the things
that this article, incorrectly or dishonestly leaves out, is that Meta's CapEx is not 100% focused
on just training AI. That is a big part of it, but Meta's CapEx is to support its entire business.
Meta has half the world using its platform every single day for hours. The company needs more
servers than most companies. And when you look at Meta's CapEx, even if they aren't able to fulfill
on their supercomputing promises, the company will be able to use this CapEx for their platform
needs in the future. Even if their models aren't bleeding edge or cancer past the competition,
they'll still have ample need for their CapEx investments and for the server capacity and the
computing power. So you're all free to do what you want with your money. But as for me, I consider
Meta a unique opportunity. One that investors are incorrectly spooked about news that's not really
relevant, or at least it's not that meaningful. One where investors are overlooking the incredibly
powerful profitable core business. And the fact that the moat of the company is getting wider
as it's becoming more technologically advanced. I view Meta as a unique opportunity of an
incredibly wide moat company that exists today trading at a very low valuation. So when this
company goes down, I'm buying more. And I believe that even though it's in the red today,
none of my buys have been a mistake. I believe every single buy that I've done of Meta on every single
day at every single price so far will be a profitable buy. And I will of course update you when that
happens.
