I’m going to explain why gold is ripping (and why Bitcoin is next)

In this video, I'm gonna tell you how to understand

gold's recent price rally

and why I think it tells us what happens next for Bitcoin.

Gold is absolutely ripping right now.

It might pass $5,000 in ounce

while I'm literally recording this video.

It's having its best run in over a decade,

but the part that I think nobody really realizes

is that strangely enough,

the buying that triggered this rally

started more than three years ago.

You probably know gold was the best performing asset

last year in 2025.

It did about a 63% return.

63% is damn good, especially for gold.

And the gold bugs have really been taking

their victory lap, which is fine with me.

They deserve it.

I'm happy for them.

Even though I like Bitcoin

and Bitcoin was basically the only asset

of every asset class you see on the screen

that was negative last year,

down about 6%.

Wolf, so Bitcoiners, naturally,

feeling salty, feeling fomo,

sitting on the sidelines,

watching the gold bugs and the silver bugs

having their day and the sun while we sit in the corner

feeling with our Bitcoins.

So naturally, you might wonder,

does this gold run up mean you should sell your Bitcoin

and buy gold instead?

Well, I definitely don't think so.

In fact, I think it means the exact opposite

because seeing things through the lens of just last year

is quite short-sighted.

And it really covers up the bigger picture

of what's going on here.

Because what the gold bugs don't really want to tell you

is that the rally they finally got

in the last one to two years,

they've been basically waiting for it for 12 years.

From the beginning of 2012 to the beginning of 2024,

gold did basically nothing.

It returned 30%.

Not per year, but cumulative total in 12 years.

About 2% per year for over a decade.

I mean, obviously, there's nuance.

If you bought it at a low in the middle of that,

you would have seen better returns.

But generally speaking, if you're a gold bug

who bought it at the high in 2012,

you waited any turnity to break even.

But more importantly than that,

was an opportunity cost because they got blown out

of the water by basically everything,

especially text talks and of course Bitcoin.

So yeah, I am genuinely happy for the gold bugs

finally getting their rally.

They deserve it after waiting for 12 years.

And unfortunately, that long wait

is not even really an outlier for gold.

Those long waits are actually par for the course.

It also happened from 1980 to about 2006.

Gold peak at an all-time high around 1980

of about $850 an ounce.

Then it fell off a cliff and by the end of 2006,

it was around $630 an ounce.

That's 26 years for a cumulative loss of 25%.

I mean, that is brutal.

Maybe that's why Satoshi invented Bitcoin.

He might have been a gold bug

who was just tired of sitting around waiting.

But I kid, because again, the gold bugs

have been carrying the sound money torch

since before the big corners were even around.

So I'm happy to let them have their day

and for them to see their thesis playing out on the charts.

Because this video is not about bashing gold.

Gold bugs and big corners are on the same team, really.

We believe in like 99% of the same things

about the problems of money.

They are just sticking to a 20th century version

of the solution.

While big corners are saying, hey,

there's a 21st century version of the solution

to the problems of money

and it actually has a greater chance

to work in a digital age.

But discussing the flaws that gold has

that Bitcoin solves is a video for another time.

Because despite the fact that the gold bugs had to wait

from 2012 to 2024 to get the rally they've been waiting for,

it was really 2022 when everything changed.

Examining global flows of gold starting then

is going to be the key to us understanding

why the gold price finally took off last year

and how that potentially foreshadows

the same future for the price of Bitcoin.

Real quick, you're watching the SadStacker Show,

a Bitcoin show for people who think

deeper about money.

I'm your host.

My name is John A.K.A, the SadStacker, A.K.A,

SadFinger.

SadFinger, pretty short dreams in cold and fear and for no.

If you want to learn to stack smarter, hit the subscribe button.

So I've long wondered about this theory

that says gold moves first, gold sniffs out

the debasement, the liquidity, the rally that's coming,

and then Bitcoin moves second.

Right now, we have a bunch of macro signals

that are pointing to loser monetary policy

and more liquidity in the system starting this year.

For example, it's deep in the weeds,

but you have upcoming changes to bank capital rules

like the supplemental leverage ratio,

which could free up balance sheet capacity

across the financial system and lead to more liquidity.

And the theory goes that gold moves

on the signal that liquidity will be coming

and Bitcoin moves when that liquidity actually shows up.

The second half of that clearly tracks with reality

as Lynn Alden and Sam Callahan did a research paper a year or so ago

that shows that Bitcoin is correlated with global liquidity

more than any other asset.

More money in the system means the Bitcoin price moves more.

But I was still wondering, is this idea true that gold moves first

and that a moving gold's price can actually

predict a move in Bitcoin's price?

Well, we really haven't seen a move like this in gold

since the late 70s, so Bitcoin obviously was not around yet.

So it's hard to say how predictive this move really is.

But then I came across this interesting post

from Bitwise CEO Matt Hogan.

Everyone thinks the gold price spiked in 2025

because central bank purchases tilted the supply demand balance.

But central bank purchases of gold really spiked in 2022.

After the US seized Russia's treasuries

and signaled to the world that it's no longer safe

to hold US treasury bonds since we're willing to freeze them

if you do something we don't like.

So it turns out there is a need for a decentralized

permissionless non-sovereign global reserve asset

that can't be censored or seized at the click of a button.

Who knew?

But anyways, central bank purchases of gold doubled in 2022

from about 500 tons to about 1,000 tons a year

and they've stayed at that level ever since.

Of course, that did shift the supply demand balance,

but strangely, it did not show up in the gold price right away.

Gold rose 2% in 2022, 13% in 2023,

and 27% in 2024.

You can see the makings of the run up,

but it didn't go parabolic until 2025,

which is now continuing into 2026.

The reason for that is simple.

It's not just demand that makes price skyrocket

because if there are enough sellers at a given price level,

then price can remain relatively stable

even if demand increases because more and more sellers

will enter the market to meet that buying pressure.

It just means central banks were buying lots of gold,

but lots of gold holders were willing to sell their gold

at or around those prices, so the price didn't need

to gap up significantly in order to coax out

a whole slew of new sellers.

I covered a similar phenomenon with Bitcoin last year,

while everyone was saying all the news about Bitcoin

is so bullish, why isn't the price moving higher?

The answer was simpler than basically anybody wanted

to admit, it was just a lot of people

who were willing to sell their Bitcoin,

especially when we were over the $100,000 mark.

You can watch that full video right here, if you're interested.

I also recently talked to the best Bitcoin on-chain analyst

in the business, James Check, about this exact topic

that interview is gonna drop on my channel soon,

so make sure you subscribe to the channel.

But the same theory basically applies here.

Madhogan points out that since the Bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024,

they have been buying more than 100%

of the newly introduced supply of Bitcoin,

but the price hasn't gone parabolic.

Simply because, like I said,

there were enough existing holders

who were willing to sell their Bitcoin,

but that ETF demand has been remarkably persistent.

And as we see more and more institutional adoption

and bullish headlines for Bitcoin, its mass belief and mine,

of course, that will see continued demand from the ETFs.

And we know there's demand from strategy

who just keeps buying by the billions.

Bitcoin has shown tremendous resilience

since it crashed 30% off its all-time high last year.

It never broke below 80,000,

and we're already back hovering around or above 90,000

at the time of this recording.

Central bank demand for gold doubled in 2022,

but the price didn't explode until 2025.

There has been a ton of ETF demand for Bitcoin in the last two years.

And like Checkmate just told me,

those ETF buyers have actually been massive hotlers.

Even despite the reason drawdown,

the total Bitcoin outflows from ETFs

was something like three and a half percent.

So if that ETF demand persists,

throw that in with the demand from strategy,

other institutions, retail, et cetera.

At some point, we exhaust the sellers in this price range

and buyers have no choice,

but to start paying more and more and more dollars

to entice new sellers to come to market.

That's when Bitcoin does its parabolic move just like gold did.

You see, Bitcoin was down 6% last year.

Well, every other asset class was up.

You may think that sounds bearish,

but I think it sounds bullish as ****.

We had an absolute torrent of selling,

but demand is holding strong.

It's an interesting tweet on the screen.

I know this is not technically a super accurate way

to do a market cap delta to per coin price translation,

but if Bitcoin absorbed the same number of absolute dollars

that Gold or Silver absorbed last year,

it would easily have pushed Bitcoin's price

into the hundreds of thousands or even the millions.

This isn't saying Bitcoin will do that,

but it's showing how small Bitcoin still is relative

to global capital tools

and how asymmetric of a bet Bitcoin still is.

We are still extremely early,

and Bitcoin is tiny compared to much more established assets

like gold.

Gold is a much more mature and established asset

with 5,000 years of history and trust as a store of value,

which is obviously the one trait that Bitcoin lacks

is a track record of trust that long.

But that too is bullish

because it just shows you how much room

Bitcoin really has left to run.

Just think of it this way.

Fiat debatement is such a powerful force

that the most globally recognized store of value

for 5,000 years, Gold,

was still able to double in a little over a year

once the supply tightened and the sellers dried up.

It might have taken a couple years for the price chart

to reflect the real impact of all that demand,

but central banks were gobbling up that Gold

and sticking it in vaults with no intention

of letting it back out,

which means that once willing sellers were exhausted,

the only pressure relief valve left was the price.

Now apply that to Bitcoin.

Millions of Bitcoin changed hands last year.

Bitcoin absorbed hundreds of billions of dollars

of sell pressure.

But what if we are finally reaching the point

where all those people who wanted to take profits over 100K

have sold their coins?

But the demand persists.

ETF buyers keep pushing,

sailor keeps buying,

more and more institutions are entering.

Banks, wealth funds, states, long-term hodlers,

you name it, the demand is still there.

And just as we finally saw it with Gold,

when enough weak hands capitulate,

there's basically nobody left to sell.

And that's when the price goes parabolic.

Which means, as always,

there's only one thing left to do.

Quit slacking and start stacking,

when the price goes parabolic.

Which means as always, there's only one thing left to do.

Quit slacking and start stacking, when the price goes parabolic.