In Iran, Trump is both escalating and deescalating

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Hey there, it's the MPR Politics Podcast.

I'm Miles Parks, I cover voting.

I'm Frank Ordenia as I cover the White House.

And I'm Greg Myrie, I cover National Security.

And we are recording this at 113 PM Eastern time

on Wednesday, March 25th.

And today on the show, we're nearing the one month mark

of the war in Iran.

Frank O. President Trump started the week

with a post on social media that said, quote,

very good and productive conversations

we're going on with Iran,

alluding to the fact that negotiations seem to be ongoing

to move towards an end to the conflict.

What more can you tell us about that?

Yeah, it came as Trump announced that he was postponing

a tax on Iran power plants for five days.

And he said at the time that his team,

you know, the envoy Steve Whitkopf

and son-in-law Jared Kushner,

were in touch with a, quote,

top person in the regime, though he would not say who it was.

And Miles, it really felt like kind of like a turning point

in all this, you know, they were potentially moving

into this new chapter of the war.

That's certainly seen what Trump was signaling.

And moving toward this kind of negotiating ending, you know,

Trump before said that he was not already

to agree to anything.

But here he was saying that they were very willing

to make a deal, that the US was willing to make a deal.

And that he said actually that if he was a betting man

that he would bet on the deal happening.

Yesterday, of course, he spoke again

about this top person actually delivering on a promise.

He called it a big presence.

I didn't say exactly what that was,

but he said it involved oil and gas.

And he also said that was a sign at least

that they were dealing with the right person.

I do want to note one more thing, though,

that Iran officially is dismissing the idea

that they are negotiating anything directly with the US

and actually would not negotiate with Whitcoff

and Kushner because they felt like those

to mislead them in the lead up to the war.

It does feel like it takes two to tango, Greg.

And I don't know, that doesn't that seem like a,

if you have one side saying we're negotiating things are going really well.

But then Iran is denying that this is happening at all.

What are we supposed to read from that?

Yeah, that they're far apart.

And I think that's the only realistic thing you can say right now.

I think Trump has hit a point where he feels

he's going to have to consider negotiations

that the current plan on the battlefield

another day or two or three of bombing

is not going to make Iran capitulate.

So it is significant that Trump is talking about negotiations.

But Iran may have time on its side.

Now it sees the straight of Hormuz closed

and it is in no hurry to bring it into the war

if it doesn't get some of the things that it wants.

And one of those is a guarantee that the United States

will not wage war again against it and try to topple the regime.

So Franco, political pressure is clearly building on President Trump

and the kind of all the different dominoes

that are falling from this war going on weeks and weeks.

I just drove past a gas station in DC this week

where gas was priced over $5.

It was the most expensive station I've driven by in DC.

It's consistently over time.

I know it's when you're talking about it.

Exactly, I'm not going to name names.

But is it fair to say that there is starting to become

I guess global financial pressure for President Trump

to kind of change his tune on this?

Yeah, I think there's no doubt about that.

And I think Trump clearly knows that as well.

And I think you see that in the rhetoric from him

over the past couple of weeks,

particularly when it has to deal with the Strait of Hormuz,

whether it's threatening Iran to stop what it's doing,

stop strikes on cargo ships to threatening essentially allies

and other Western nations to kind of join this coalition

and saying if you don't join and help secure the Strait,

we will remember those things.

But just back to that social post

and kind of like this turning point,

that social post actually came around seven o'clock

in the morning or just after.

And that had such an impact on the markets.

I mean, oil futures instantly rallied the S&P 500

went soaring before the morning bell.

So this is clearly something that is having an impact on markets

and Trump has always paid attention to markets always.

So you've got Trump talking about de-escalation, Greg.

But at the same time, isn't the US still building up

its military presence in the region?

Yeah, Trump always likes to keep his options open.

And as I said, without any great movement

on the battlefield under the current circumstances,

he's basically got two options, escalator de-escalate.

Well, he's sort of chosen A and B,

talking about a possible peace deal in a de-escalation.

But also, we're hearing more troops are headed to the region.

Two marine units, both have 2,000 troops

or a little more each, one coming from Japan,

the other from California.

One should arrive any day now.

The other's probably still a couple weeks away.

And we've also heard that the 82nd Airborne

is going to send about 2,000 troops to the region.

So about another 6,000 troops.

And these are highly trained troops

that could certainly carry out a specific mission.

But again, we're 6,000, 7,000 troops.

That's not a huge number.

There are about 50,000 US troops in the region

on ships, airmen, ground troops.

So that adds to that total, which sounds pretty considerable,

until you think about the fact that Iran has more than 600,000

troops in its active duty army.

So that US presence in the region,

even with these additions, would still

be less, there may be 10% of what Iran has.

So it's not enough to carry out a major ground invasion.

It's enough to carry out specific operations.

Obviously, the speculation is on things

like trying to open the state of Hormuz.

But Trump has said no boots on the ground at different points

related to the Iran conflict.

Is that still the working assumption?

Or essentially, that's what he said.

He's given himself some wiggle room saying,

I haven't sent troops anywhere.

But if I was, I wouldn't tell you.

So he's left himself a little wiggle room.

And one could certainly see him choosing that option

if it's a specific operation.

I mean, I think there's both, if the US troops were

to seize an island to help clear the state of Hormuz,

he might fudge that and say, well, that's not really

troops on the ground.

That's just part of an operation in the Gulf,

or to take a small island.

Again, I don't think there's just enough of the US presence

to do a major ground operation,

what we've seen in Iraq and Afghanistan in the past.

But there wouldn't be a surprise if they were to carry out

a small specific operation.

So thinking about, I guess, to your kind of the way

you put it, Greg, which I thought was helpful in terms of,

there's kind of a de-escalation route and an escalation route.

Think about the de-escalation route.

Who is leading negotiations at this point on the US side,

or who's kind of leading the diplomatic effort

to move this conflict toward a close?

Not entirely clear.

We should certainly be looking towards the two people

who've been involved in the past Steve Whitkoff

and Jared Kushner.

However, both of those times last June,

when they were involved in negotiations,

the US joined Israel in bombing Iran.

And in February, they were involved in these efforts,

and then the US launched this war in Iran.

So the Iranians are feeling maybe a little skittish

about dealing with these two,

and that this doesn't necessarily mean

there's going to be a peace deal coming out of that.

So there is talk, and I would stress talk or speculation

at this point that the Iranians may want to deal

with somebody else, JD Vance, the vice president's name

has been raised.

We still don't have a venue-fixed Pakistan

is a venue that's been raised.

So a lot of uncertainty here,

there does seem that these intermediaries,

Pakistan, perhaps other countries in the region,

are trying to help set up some actual face-to-face talks.

But it seems the discussions at this point

have been indirect, and we're trying to get to the point

of some face-to-face or almost face-to-face meetings.

All right, let's think of a quick break

and more on the Iran conflict in just a moment.

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And we're back.

And we talk on the show a lot about President Trump

looking for different ways to declare victory

in basically any situation.

It's clear that he's looking for a way to do that

to kind of end this war,

and off ramp is what some people have called it.

What are his options at this point?

Yeah, miles before I get to the options,

I want to sort of make a point about the phrase off ramp,

which is what everybody is using,

and I think we kind of understand

what the meeting is the way to end the war.

But literally when I think of an off ramp,

I think I'm driving down the highway,

I'm low on gas,

I'm looking for an off ramp to fill up at the gas station.

It's a minor inconvenience you need to deal with.

We're talking about a war that really is going

to reshape the region.

We don't know how it's going to end,

what the circumstances will be.

So it's not just simply an off ramp

in the sense that hopefully this fighting can stop soon.

We're talking about this reordering,

reconfiguration in the Middle East.

So we're talking about a solution to a major conflict,

not just an off ramp.

Now in terms of options,

most wars end with negotiations,

and you don't see a clear battlefield solution right now,

but you see two sides that are very, very far apart.

Not only in the goals that were stated initially,

but now President Trump would really

need to open the straight-of-war moves,

a problem that did not exist.

In fact, for decades before this war,

that it always been something looming out there

that could come up the oil markets

and the global economy,

now the President has to make it a focus of his solution.

When he was talking about other things,

like regime change,

or getting rid of Iran's nuclear program,

all of these may still be among the many things

he wants to do,

but he has to deal with some of the cards

that Iran clearly has to play right now.

I'll just add that.

I mean, we are talking about President Trump here,

and for President Trump declaring victory

is pretty as simple as declaring victory.

Everything Greg is saying is absolutely correct,

and that's the reality on the ground,

but oftentimes as we've seen in the past,

the reality on the ground is not necessarily

what Trump is looking at.

He just wants a reason to be able to call something a win,

whether it's a peace deal around the country

or in this scenario,

and he's basically done that for the most part,

including just yesterday,

saying that they have basically won the war.

Clearly, that's not the case.

But for Trump,

I think the victory that he's looking for

is if he can basically get the Strait of Hormuz open,

then he can at least say by his own definition

that they have won the war,

because while the regime may still be there,

they're clearly degraded.

And then he's kind of backed off and on

about whether he really wants regime change

or whether at least that's necessary to end this.

So is regime change just completely off the table

at this point in terms of,

that was something that was mentioned a lot earlier,

this year in terms of President Trump

talking about the protesters in Iran,

how they were treated by the regime,

and then early in this conflict,

President Trump begging the people of Iran

to basically stand up for themselves,

are we hearing any of that sort of language now?

We're really not.

He stopped talking about the protesters are rising up,

and certainly the analysis from analysts is,

that's just not likely.

It's just not realistic to be talking about it at this point.

The Iranian government and military have shown

that they can absorb these heavy blows,

the US and Israeli bombing campaign,

huge damage has been done to be sure

to their military capabilities.

They had a weak Navy and Air Force to begin with.

That's really been decimated.

Its missile program, its drone program

have all been set back very substantially.

But at some level, the government is still functioning

and so is the military.

It's still carrying out attacks.

And we heard Tulsi Gabbard,

the director of national intelligence,

testified last week saying,

Iran's government is weakened, but it's still intact.

Dozens of top leaders have been killed,

including the previous Supreme Leader,

been replaced by a new Supreme Leader.

It's just there's not a clear path

to regime change at this point.

Yeah, I think when the new Supreme Leader was announced,

I think that really changed the narrative

for the Trump administration,

because he was really talking a lot about regime change

and all the steps towards regime change before then.

But then when Iran dug in their heels

and said they were going to continue to fight,

the administration quickly backed off

that language and focused more on the military goals.

I did find it interesting though.

Yesterday, Trump kind of twisted himself

or at least twisted the language into a little pretzel

in order to say that this was still regime change,

saying that they have killed so many leaders,

how could it not be regime change?

And then floated again the idea that this new person

that they're supposedly talking with

could eventually be the person who kind of serves as,

and what we've talked about before,

this Venezuela type model where it is actually

the same regime, but it's a new person involved.

Greg, I want to ask before we close

just about how the region moves forward

from this no matter how it ends.

Can you talk a little bit about the US relationship

with other countries in the region

and how the other countries are kind of viewing

this conflict and thinking about it?

Yeah, one thing I think that has gotten some attention,

but not enough are the Gulf states.

And we're talking about six Muslim Arab countries,

all with hereditary monarchies,

all which are very conservative, very averse to change,

and they all opposed the war.

They were against this war beginning.

And now that it's begun, their big concern is

that Trump may just call it off and pull out

and sort of leave them with a mess behind

that the straight of war moves issue may not be resolved,

that they are clearly within striking distance

from Iran, they're getting hit every day

with Iranian missiles and drones.

And now that Iran has crossed that threshold,

that would be an ongoing threat they would have to face.

And so they're very worried in terms of their security,

in terms of their economy,

they're gonna be left in a much weaker

and more vulnerable position if this war just ends abruptly

without a clear decisive measure,

and their brand is stability.

They've prospered by being this coastline of stability

in the volatile Middle East.

And if they get dragged into this volatility,

that throws their brand, their image completely up in the air.

And so that's a huge concern for them.

All right, well let's leave it there for today.

The political news does seem like it's changed again,

and especially rapid pace right now.

This podcast is here to help you make sense of it.

Please do not miss an episode,

hit that follow button wherever you listen

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and we'll be right back in your feet tomorrow.

I'm Miles Parks, I cover voting.

I'm Frank Ordoniaz, I cover the White House.

And I'm Greg Myrie, I cover national security.

And thank you for listening to the MPR Politics Podcasts.

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