Indian Wells Men's Singles Draw Preview + Day 1 Recap

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Here at crack-crackers to prepare all of your tennis fans for the impending action have

tried my best to do exactly that on this podcast feed over the past couple of days I offered

a snapshot of where things currently stand at the top of the men's and women's tennis

world with my top 10 pre-sunshine swing updates on Monday.

Of course, yesterday, play the game of stock up, stock down.

Who were the biggest movers in the season's second month of February?

Of course, the last piece of that exercise got a preview of the draws, which of course

we now have available to us for these next two weeks of Indian Wells action.

By the way, it was an absolute blast to get to play a part of the tennis channel teamed

on day one.

Of course, I'm going to get to continue to do that through Monday tomorrow.

That means I'm on the call for the Sonya Kenan vs. Catarina Sinyakava match, as well as

of course the nightcap Seppi Korta taken on my birthday brother Francisco Komassania,

that latter match I get to call with my dear friend Bradley Klahn.

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Laurel Springs, again, a proud partner of the mini-break podcast feed.

Again, top 10 snapshots, scroll down.

You can find them here on this mini-break podcast feed, stock up, stock down.

You can find them here on this mini-break podcast feed, women singles draw preview you can

find here on the podcast feed as well.

Last piece of the equation, gotta preview the 2026 Indian Wells, men singles draw one

run you through, all four quarters of the draw, who has the toughest section, who are

the sleepers within each of those sections, each of those sections, what are ultimately

my predictions for how I see things unfolding, gonna try and cover all that over the course

of this edition of the show.

So without further ado, let's get into the 2026 Indian Wells men singles draw that start

at the top of the draw with, of course, top seed Carlos Alcaraz.

I mean, is it a tricky section for a guy who's won 12 consecutive matches to start his

2026 season, a guy who's looked damn good outdoors, dating back, I don't know, pick your

event, Cincinnati, New York, Melbourne, obviously, Yannick Center has had a standard for everyone

else to chase, not only in the immediate present, but moving forward historically with what

he's done over these past couple of seasons, and yet that Carlos Alcaraz is still managed

to make it feel pretty convincingly that his best is still the best.

We have immense tennis.

If Carlos Alcaraz plays his best, he's winning the event, and it doesn't really matter who

else is in the draw, now I will say, fascinating, potential round one matchup or first match

of the event, round two matchup technically for Carlos Alcaraz, he'll face the winner

of either the big serving lefty, the always dangerous Terence Atman or Gregor Dimitrov,

will be his opening round match.

That's fascinating, like right out of the gates, again, if it's the big serving

lefty, if he serves well, I mean, again, in these conditions, Alcaraz is going to find

a way to get clean looks at the ball and find strikes, but if he serves well, he's keeping

pace with anyone.

Dimitrov is Dimitrov.

If we get the best version of Gregor Dimitrov, he can go up two sets on anyone, and has

the ball striking capability, the requisite fluidity, things you need against Alcaraz.

It's fascinating, that's where things get fascinating, for Carlos Alcaraz as it relates

most to this section, let me look, he's got some seeds, right, certainly in these conditions,

you feel like Luciano Darderi, fresh off of a title run in Santiago, why couldn't he

with his forehand, explode through the court, get to a quarter final, you've got Sasha

Bublik in this section of the draw, I know Bublik didn't have the loudest February, he

also didn't have a loud February in a bad way either, and for a guy who's made a living

off of three great weeks, followed by seven irrelevant weeks, obviously for eight months,

he's been one of no worse than the 12 best players in the world, and yeah, that's eight

months consecutively now, he is still in this section of the draw, he is one of those rare

human beings who can say, well, I've beaten Yonic Sinner in a tour level event, has anyone

else done that, not named Carlos Alcaraz, and joke, which is like, I've done it, Greg

Spurz, like I've kind of done it, obviously now you can add Yaka Menshik to that list, and

that's the list, we can call the matches out on our hand, that's how rare an occasion it's

been, Sasha Bublik's one of those guys, oh, by the way, just looming as the second highest

seed in this section, a guy who was really struggled in the sunshine swing, I talked about that

in my top 10, pre, top 10 discussion on Monday, Alex Diminauer is not a constant presence

in the final 16, let alone the final eight, the final four of Indian Wells, nor Miami,

throughout the course of his career. Fascinating opening match for him, whether it's Komasanya,

who again, I will call tomorrow his match up with Sabi Korda, if it's Korda, if it's the

quarter we got in Delray Beach, that's Sabi Korda, as the Sabi Korda, I will consistently put in

the top four American finishers, and typically I have him finishing as the number one American

at the end of each every year, I've fallen in love with the best version of Sabi Korda,

as much as anyone who's fortunate enough to have a microphone put in their face, I like to think

out there. Again, Dimin Korda, as match one for Dimin, that would just be brutal.

Mackie McDonald's, or some TRN, all these, a lot of speed, a lot of fluidity, and Mackie and

these conditions can just get hot. Cam Norrie, former Indian Wells champion in the section of

the draw, that should matter, hypothetically given the conditions, you think this would be a good

place for Casparoud as well, right? Now, he had a very bad month of February on paper, but as I

discussed, I actually think his level was much better than the results would indicate.

I mean, who's the sleeper in this section? You could argue 13th-seated Casparoud because it's just

been so long since he's made any sort of serious noise on a non-clave court event, and a non-clave

court event, and by serious noise I'm talking non-250s, I'm talking no 1000 level of enter higher.

Emilio Nava, could he beat Nuno? Could he beat Vashero? Yeah, if he's striking the ball well,

in California conditions he grew up in, keep an eye on Emilio Nava, keep an eye on Nuno

Borges, the winner of that match absolutely can beat Vashero in round number two. I mean, again,

I mentioned the Atman Dimitrov winner could give, and now, of course, a run in one of those sets,

shout out Michael Zhang, Columbia two-time NCAA singles champion, he's in the draw, a very winnable

match against Ivita Capriva, face Bublick in round two. Look, Algaraz is getting through the

quarter, and you're just, you pick against Algaraz, you're either, you're trolling or you're clickbaiting,

like there's just no logical case given the men within this section in their recent form,

and his recent form, to pick against Carlos Algaraz, so as much as I like to inject

thought, thoughtful, devil's advocate positions, thoughtful, I don't know the word I'm looking

for, it's late, I've talked a lot today, you get what I'm trying to say, as much as thought

provoking exercises within this podcast, I don't know what the thought exercises, like if Casper

wins need to see it to believe it, honestly, I believe Atman serving big to knock off Algaraz,

in an early match round one encounter, I like believe that scenario more than I would,

Casper Rude, certainly Alex Demenauer beating him in a quarter final, maybe Rinder Kinesh,

that third round matchup hypothetically just serves lights out, I guess he did it against Verra

that Wimbledon, but we ain't at Wimbledon, the spicy pick would say go Algaraz versus Corda,

like maybe that's where the sleeper comes, I mean look, you guys know what I think the best version

of Cepi Corda can do, if he was in the Bublik Darderi section, I might be bold enough to even pick

him, although then again, I mean I had Luciano Darderi, I was considering him one of my top 10

as one of my top 10 players entering the sunshine swing, and certainly these are the most

advantageous hardcore conditions he'll find, does Darderi beat Demen and introduce himself to the

world in what would be a really fun round of 16, by the way the Demen Bublik rematch after Demen

smoked him in Melbourne, that's a fun sub-plot, Algaraz to beat, I mean picking against a Demen

here isn't even a spicy pick, maybe picking Demen is the spicy pick, so I'll zig by zagging,

I'll take Demen Algaraz Corda, I'm gonna take Algaraz to get himself through to another semi final,

that's his section of the draw, of course he's joined in that top half of the draw by third

seeded Novak, joke of it's joke of it's his section, brutal, I mean again you've got the defending

champ Jack Draper, who it's not brutal, certainly given he's only played one event in the last six

months, but he is the defending champ, certainly there's some urgency if he can find his best we know

with that, looks like maybe even more notably, you've got the Neal Medvedev within this section

of the draw, you've got former Indian Wells champion Taylor Fritz within this section of the draw,

the always dangerous Yuri Lachecha in this section of the draw, quarter finalists last year

Francisco Sorundolo, who let's not forget one title down in Buenos Aires last month,

he's lingering in this section of the draw, hypothetically of course in joke of it's immediate

section, you got the two big servers who sometimes can just take a racket out of your hand,

Giovanni and Pesci Perricard would be a potential match one battle for Novak, joke of itch,

who be her gods, who did not have a good February, but lost a lot of close matches and just has

a serve that keeps them in a fight against anyone, they're both in that immediate section,

hypothetically that could be matches one and two of the tournament for Novak, joke of itch,

and while it wouldn't be the most physically laborious, I like to find rhythm in my early matches,

I guess at joke of itch's age, he's got a lifetime of rhythm but still not fun,

there are serious tests for Novak, joke of itch, joke of itch, by the way, outside of his Miami

final and then obviously the run of the Athens title, he hasn't been particularly great in

non-major events over the last two years, again just your reminder and certainly the surface

level numbers are still going to sound good, he was 37 and 9 in the 2024 season, your reminder

that of that 37 and 9 record, he was 16 and 3 at the slams, I mean look 21 and 6 is still going

to sound pretty damn good, but like, I'm just saying 21 and 6, you look for him last year, he was 24

at the majors, 19 and 7 outside of them, that's a more pedestrian-ish number, lost last year,

first match in Dean Wells, to Botech Vendus and Schultt believed the round, year before that,

he lost early to Luca Nardi of course, yeah it was Luca Nardi round of 32 in 2024 as well,

somewhere in Indian Wells losses of late, just worth throwing on the radar, now again it's

joke of itch, fresh off of a win over center, his first win over one of those two guys in a while,

of course, at the 2026 Australian Open, if we get that version of Novak, yeah, he's the favorite

still to advance in this section, but there's a lot of fun guys, Alex Michelson's in this draw,

Cebi Baez, who let's not forget, I know he's quiet relative to his typical South American swings,

a couple of semi-finals, no title, but he had the best hard court month of his career to kick

things off in January, and you feel like these Indian Wells conditions will be that much more

advantageous, it's got to get through sung round one, if he does it'd be a match up with Lecheta,

Tentra battle between him and Medvedev, by the way, hopefully Haudard gets through to Bio,

so we can get a Haudard Medvedev round two battle, that's one I'm clear on my schedule for,

I will go to the people at Tennis Channel and say I will do anything to call this Rafa Haudard match,

a lot of good stuff, a lot of good matchups across the board again, who are the sleepers in this

section? If her cut gets hot on serve, he's sure, I don't know if I'm ready to call Baez a sleeper

in this section, who's the biggest threat to Jokovic? Is it an informed draper, which is not

getting that version of checktraper, right? There's just no way, not this soon. Medvedev's been a lot

better, things are a lot slower at Indian Wells than they were in Dubai, Taylor Fritz, I mean,

again, Fritz has been so good at Indian Wells, I just don't know how healthy he is right now.

I mean, it's just so boring, but we could really get the exact same semi-finals as we did in

Australia. And I suppose that would provide perhaps maybe a little more clarity, be like, okay,

well, if you keep giving Zverev the draws and he's going to capitalize and getting there, yeah,

it's a pretty clear fourth, but you got to keep throwing him on that number,

event, event, this is why rankings are important. I'll take Jokovic to advance out of the quarter.

I just don't feel great about any of the contenders, I feel better about Medvedev, honestly,

I feel better about Fritz. Draper looked sound in his first week back, but I just don't feel

great about any of those guys. So again, I'll take a very boring Elkarez, Jokovic, top half semi-final.

I will say, Versace Zverev, he faces a guy match number one here in Indian Wells who beat him,

match number one Monte Carlo last season. He's going to face off against Matteo Baratini. Baratini

did not have the juice. He went down four to love. I mean, it was about 32 minutes, but he went

down four to love, and his forehand just was producing nothing of consequence. Nothing of

consequence. Manorino was redirecting every return at Baratini's feet, and Baratini's forehand

on the run was just spraying everywhere. And he needs to hit that forehand on the run well because

obviously he's always leaking over to that ad side trying to protect his backhand, trying to

find inside out forehand. Thus, he leaves a ton of space open on the do side, right?

And Manorino was just like, okay, I'm going to keep playing through that space, whether it was a

little forehand flick, a backhand cross. Again, keeps things so simple. No one absorbs pace better

and redirects it than Adrian Manorino. And Baratini just given the depth of that bulk. He was missing

his forehand all over the place in set number one. And then all of a sudden, he wasn't. And then

first of all, he went down four to love fast. Rallyed, got a break back down the home stretch of

that set number one. You could see how important that break was for Baratini's confidence.

They really got the second break back as well. Race is out to a quick break lead, gave that

break back, but ultimately gets the late break, force 75 to close out the set. They're on serve,

all throughout the third. Both guys had a break point chance in the opening games.

Then it was actually Baratini who was getting closer, although no man really had a break down

the stretch. Until Baratini did. And he breaks with some great physicality. It was crazy to see him end

up cramping. At the end of this match, which just speaks to two hours, 40 minutes on a guy who's

playing just a seventh match of the season is that with a bunch of different injuries. It's always

just so tentative, you feel like with the 29-year-old. But he was so much better. And to see his level

progress as it did throughout the course of this match, he finally set number two was able to land

on the run forehand, whether it be line, whether it be cross, started playing way more slice

forcing Manorino to generate his own pace, which obviously given the string tension. How loose

that ball is. That's when the ball can sail on Adrian Manorino. It was just so much more tactically.

He only used one for one moving forward. Just did not put any downhill pressure on Manorino in the

opening set. Part of that was I've never seen Manorino return as well as he did. In that opening

set, every return, sincerely, all of them, peppered at Baratini's feet. He just wasn't having

getting those easy plus one forehand opportunities. And then he was, and then he's moving to his left

and hitting forehand instead out winners as a vintage Baratini performance does. He was progressively,

it's a really bright sign. And I don't know if he's serving well enough to get through his

area because the serve just didn't have the pop it needed, but it was significantly better by

end of match. And it just points to the 29th row that the very least trending in the right

direction. I warned you. I was going to do a little extra since I had the chance to be on the

call for that match. I will say it's a fascinating section of the draw. You've got a Musetti,

yes, coming off of injury, but let's not forget when we last saw Lorenzo Musetti healthy, he was

two sets to love up on Novak Jokovic at the Australian Open. Arthur Fees made a final and his

return in February. He's the number 30 seed. He's defending quarter final points, fascinating.

Round one match up between he and rising, Dino Prismich, 221 and under guys doing battle,

early round of 1,000. That's what it's all about. Rublef in this section of the draw. He's going

to take on Cap Diallo, match one Diallo, needed that round one victory desperately. Good win for him

over Mathia Balucci. I mean, again, you've got in this section four seeded as Verabjoin by

the fifth seeded Musetti, the ninth seeded Felix Ojirolyasim, Flavio Kuboli, fresh off of an

Acapoco title, Rublef, Fees, Francis Tiafos, fresh off of that Acapoco final. By the way,

you could have a Tiafo Kuboli round three rematch. They're in the same section of the draw. By

the way, you like Blockbusters, Tiafo Brooksby. That's around two battle. Sign me up for that.

Yeah, again, this section, the second round battles are Verabberatini, Tiafo Brooksby,

Felix Monefees, Rublef Diallo, and Fees Prismich. I fucking love this section of the draw.

It's very, very good. Who's the sleeper? I mean, which version of Arthur Fees do we get?

The one who's continuing to look better and better, given he's coming off of injury. Why couldn't

Fees knock off Musetti and talk about a reintroduction for the 21 year old to be like, yo,

I know you guys have been enjoying men's chick. You've been enjoying Fonseca. You guys are

flirting with Tian and Hodar now. That's cute. But I'm the 21 and under guy. Just don't forget.

Again, he was that good for two months, March and April last year. Of all the 21 and under guys,

it's the best two month stretch. Yeah, it's better than a two consecutive months Fonseca's put

together. Learner gets interesting. I mean, Menchick's highs have been higher, of course. But two

months, I'm just saying. I'm just reminding everyone. That's how good he was in Dean Welles

through Barcelona last year. So he's the most consequential for me in this Verab quarter,

and it's more fun, again, if he is back at his best. For Felix, of course, it's consequential.

Cannot be two steps back. And look, the seed he drew was muceti. In these conditions,

maybe slight lean muceti, but they're favorable. Like, again, for Felix, Rubleb, though,

he's muceti, it's a tricky section. Go get to a quarter, final Felix. Oh, Girolia,

seem, don't take another step back after building throughout the course of February.

Nakashima is another seed. By the way, the only seed I didn't mention is in this section.

I'm like, for a spare of the path to the quarter is Baratini, Nakashima,

Kaboli or Tiafo, muceti, feasts, Rubleb, Felix. That's his path to the semi to a date with

center. That is brutal, much more brutal than his Australian open semi-final path. Can he navigate

that tight rope? I'm fascinated to find out. You know what? I'm going to go with the tennis god

saying they want the same final four. I'm going to pick Zarev and just go super boring.

The fun pick, I mean, muceti's probably both, muceti was healthy, I would pick him,

I might pick him. Kaboli's the sexy pick. Tiafo's the really sexy pick.

And just Francis having one of those moments on home soil after being desperately in need of one.

Feasts is a fun semi-final pick I'm going with Zarev, and that's again probably my favorite

quarter of the draw. Last but not least, of course, Yannick's center section of the draw.

Said a lot of fun names, it speaks to the depth of the uncertainty at the top of the

men's tennis world. There's a lot of good names still in this section, right? As center's going

to be joined by, yes, a guy he's owned relative to the expectations in Ben Shelton, by the way,

Shelton's path. Excuse me, Shelton's path to a potential quarter final date with center.

He's going to take on Riley O'Pelco, Riley, who is awesome today. In a straight set,

went over Ethan Quinn, could be first Riley, then learner TN round three, then Jakob Menchik round

four, then Yannick's center in the quarters. That is fucking brutal for Ben.

Put Ben in the Zarev quarter, and I'm picking him to get to the semi-finals.

He proved that he was that guy last year in Canada. Don't forget that standout moment.

That's a brutal draw, man. Brutal for the young American.

Learned our very winnable first match against Adam Walton. That's a fun one, though, for us

Slappys. The Spider-Man, he's not just your friendly neighborhood Spider-Man anymore.

Top 100, and now one of the best wins of his career. I have never seen Zachary Svida

serve as well as he did today. The relentlessness behind the plus one. It was that demon hour

calculation, where yes, the first serve percentage was under 60%. But he's just playing that first

serve bigger now. And accordingly, winning more free points, getting easier, plus one opportunities

to play attacking tennis with his unimpeachable ground strokes. And he's always been a ball machine,

a buff, a ball factory from the baseline. But now there's a little more hootspup

behind it as well. And I know that's up the key in his coachery, Sarmiento,

have really stressed working on that specific trait.

Svida versus the Fitavitch Fokina is an awfully physical round one matchup for the Spaniard.

That could get really fun, Giron vs. Menchick. The veteran from California is just always good

when he's playing in his home state. That could be a sneaky tricky one for Jakob Menchick.

By the way, if those aren't good enough for you, here's just a simple one. First of all,

this section has already seen Dennis Shapavolo beat Stefano Ct Pasin, three sets.

We're going to get Hachinov vs. Fonseca, round number two as well. Could be Fonseca vs. Hachinov,

Fonseca vs. Tommy, then Fonseca vs. Sinner. If things break right for the Brazilian and his fans,

Thomas Martin Etcheverri, who want to title down in the, who won Rio, the 500, like he's in this

section of the draw. This is a really fucking good section. It ain't going to be a cakewalk,

Fortionic Sinner. Now again, Etcheverri on Hardcore's Orchapo, round three. Svirekina,

first of all, his first match. I expect him to get through the qualifier comfortably.

I would expect him to get through everything comfortably. He's the Onyck Freakin's Sinner.

Getting through comfortably is just what he does. But there are serious threats, Tommy's playing a

lot better. He's who Bergs was awesome. Week one at United Cup. Again, that's a brutal section.

Hachinov, Fonseca, Bergs, Paul, no matter who emerges out of that, it's a fun round three match.

Same thing with Menshik, Giron, Svide, David Vich, Fokina. Honestly, Shelton, Opelka, TN,

and obviously our guy from a Tessie, all American Adam Walton. I love this section of the draw.

Menshik just beat Yonic Sinner. So of course, the tennis guys are going to hand him in Yonic Sinner's

section once again. I mean, Lerner vs. Ben is just mean to American tennis fans, but that's also

a must attend third round match. If it happens, like must attend, must must attend. And you clear

your schedule to watch it at home as well. Go make sure your tennis channel subscription is up to date.

Sinner is going to advance. Of course he is. By the way, great win for Shapo, three sets over

C2Poss. Love to see him roar at the end as well. Just great to see him that positive.

Just feels like it's been forever since we've seen that version of him.

I'm going boring. I'm going to go same results. Alcharez-Jokovic, Sinner's Verive, Sinner

Overs Verive, Alcharez-Jokovic. And then here's where I'll throw the wrench. I'll say Sinner

over Alcharez because I like to throw one in there every so often. That's your Indian

Wells men's draw preview. Again, day one results officially in the books.

I mentioned the ones I watched most closely, but there were a bunch of others as well.

I mentioned the Prismich win in three sets over Skulkata, Opelka 5 and 6 over Quinn,

Giron, three sets over in the Vone, Fond Sekka, 6 and 4 over Jan Leonard Struth.

Again, that Shapo score, 6, 2, 3, 6, 6, 4 over C2Poss.

I'm on Feast 3 and 4 over Kalarno, Brooksby. That was the big one. Jensen Brooksby.

It looked really good. Fit as a fiddle. Three and four over Alexi Popperin to advance to round

number two. I believe Brooksby's got a really fun one coming up next as well as Jensen Brooksby.

Of course, going to take on, who is Jensen Brooksby going to take on? Jensen Brooksby's going

to take on Francis Tiafo. Yeah, locked in on that one. It's going to be a fun Indian Wells.

We'll have recaps each and every day available for you here on this podcast feed to of course

help all of you tennis fans follow all the action. Also again, Ken and Versaña of a

quarter versus Colmasagna. I'll be on the call tomorrow on the TC app. Always appreciate the

text I received from all of you, kind tennis fans with your support. I might have mentioned,

I mean, again, it's one of my favorite texts where I'm calling a match and I get a text and

it's worth noting again in tennis. We're a tightly knit community, right? You grow up with people.

It's an individual sport. You get to know them very well. One of my, I don't want to say close

friends, but we're definitely friends growing up. We went to our rival high school. We played all

the same tournaments together, et cetera, a very similar level. And I get to see him once you

want to go back and play my reunion tournament, but like I don't talk a text very frequently with

my dear friend Matt McCormick. And I get a text out of the blue, hey man, this is Matt McCormick.

Is this you Alex grusket on tennis channel right now or T2? And I was like, yeah, dude,

I think there's only one. He's like, no, dude, I was pretty she is. It was very funny. He said,

like, I thought it was you. It sounded like you. Then they showed a picture. And I'm like,

I'm 99% certain it's him. He goes, but I just wanted to text you to make sure I wasn't wrong.

I was like, yeah, it's me. Which is just a fun exchange because I don't get to talk to Matt

McCormick as frequently as I once did and that this sport can still bring us together.

12 years after more than a decade since we've left high school, like it's a pretty cool thing.

So shout out to tennis, shout out Matt McCormick. One of my favorite texts I've ever gotten,

dude, is this you Alex grusket? I was like, yeah, that's me Alex grusket.

Anyways, and shout out to all of you tennis fans without whom I wouldn't get to have fun stories,

fun exchanges like that. We appreciate all of your support here at Crack Crackets.

I thank you to all of you. Thank you, of course, for the support I get every day

from our Super Producer Daniel Westoff. I think you, of course, as well, to the support we get from

our friend at the Little Springs, who's more about why we continue to rank amongst the private

online students. Today, the 7th floor is our fantastic Super Producer Daniel Westoff

at the Little Springs School. I guess from Matt McCormick,

and from Elvis, Crack Crackets and Blue Podcasts, that were kind of stuff.

So grusket, grusket, grusket, grusket. That's the break.

Thanks everyone.