Indian Wells Quarter-Final Preview: Daniil Medvedev vs Jack Draper

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Ready?

Play.

The quarter final we're going to have between Jack Draper, not Novak Djokovic,

and Daniel Medvedev, which is going to be coming up tomorrow, by the way.

I think it's going to be late on tomorrow.

Yeah, I've got the order of play here.

It's going to be on 3rd, on 4th, sorry, on stadium 2.

Not before 5pm local time, but it might end up being a bit later.

So it'll be about eight, nine o'clock, maybe something like that.

Eastern time might even be a little bit later.

We'll see.

But anyway, yeah, on stadium 2 it'll be last on.

Okay, looking forward to this match between Draper and Medvedev.

They've only played each other once before.

And that encounter went the way of Daniel Medvedev, by the way.

Now, as we scroll down, the title of the tape, they're both just outside the top 10 going into this tournament.

But they're both top 10 players in so many ways, especially on a hard court,

in terms of Daniel Medvedev, where he's at.

And Medvedev winning the only encounter that came in Rome two years ago,

I think Jack has taken huge step forward since then,

and arguably maybe Medvedev has progressed a little bit,

although his regression probably began a year before in 2023.

It was also on clay, so maybe not so relevant.

Both of these players, by the way, have excellent pedigree in the desert.

Daniel Medvedev has made two Indian Wells finals before going down to Alclas on both occasions.

He also, I think, made the semifinals last year.

So his pedigree is there in the desert.

Jack Draper is the defending champion.

He's on a run of, actually, let's have a quick look.

Jack Draper's run of wins in the desert.

Indian Wells this year, he has three wins in Indian Wells 2025.

He had six wins. He was seeded, so it's six wins there.

So that's nine wins now in the desert for Jack.

I will be talking about maybe Medvedev's record against lefties in a moment.

Now, Jack Draper's run to this final, to this final eight stage, by the way,

has included a three set win over Boutiste to a good.

That feels like a long time ago now.

A straight sets win over Surundala, where I thought he bought his really good level,

because I was a bit worried about that level he bought against Boutiste to a good,

and then boy, the level today, including the mental level he had to go through

against Jockovich having served it out or failed to serve it out,

and then struggle through the next couple of games.

We saw a lot of errors coming off the racket of Draper that just weren't there

for the previous two and a quarter hours.

And then somehow, he also had advantages in the tie break come and go,

but somehow managed to dig deep and get over the line.

I think that win for Jack Draper is the biggest win of his career.

And I mean this, because I know he's won a title in Indian Wells before,

and he's won titles elsewhere before, and he's won big matches elsewhere

at Grand Slams, et cetera.

But that is the biggest win that he had ever known for Jockovich in his career,

because that is going to just take him on leaves and bounds,

knowing he can win matches like that.

Because for me, he's shown some mental fertility in the past,

and he showed it today.

And I think the loss today would have been really tough for him.

It would have been tough going into that.

He'll be taking that into the next tournament or two.

Even Yannick Sinner, I think, who is an absolute mental giant,

took him a couple of weeks, only a couple of weeks,

which is by the way, a lot quicker than others,

but took him a couple of weeks to recover from the bruising loss here

at the French Open Final last year, against Alcatraz,

when he had match points come and go.

Melvedev in this tournament, by the way,

a slightly less dramatic route to the quarterfinals.

He hasn't dropped a set, beating Tabillo, Buyers, and Michelson.

Nice draw, I would say for Daniel.

Being a minus of the 11th seed, he could have been tougher.

But I'm not sure it's going to get much tougher for him

in the quarterfinals, and where Jack Draper is at right now.

Melvedev, by the way, against lefties, is okay.

47 wins, 28 losses.

That feels about right.

A lot of those losses, of course, coming up against Nadal.

I think his record against Nadal was a 5-1 deficit.

It could even be 6-1, I'm going to check now,

in Raffa's favour, a 5-1.

The only victory he had against Nadal was in indoors as well,

and that was a match that Raffa was serving for the match,

although he will argue that perhaps he had the big advantage

in the Australian Open of 2022 come and go.

Anyway, he wins about 2-3rds of his matches against lefties,

which is just what you would expect from a top 20 player,

and a previously top 10 player.

I've had a previously top 1 player.

Where do I think this match could be won and lost?

Well, I think Draper...

If Draper is okay physically, that's one thing I will worry,

a little bit about Draper after the monumental effort

he had to put in today.

And this is, of course, we're now in the first time in the tournament

where you don't get 48 hours to rest.

I wouldn't be surprised if he had a 48 hour rest

that he wouldn't be practicing tomorrow,

given how late he'll have finished this evening,

albeit at least the time situation is 9 o'clock,

rather than, you know, it's not like 3am in New York

or something like that, like some of these epic finishes

we have in some of the slams outside of Wimbledon anyway.

So is the first time he's going to be playing

much less than 24 hours,

especially if he starts at 5 o'clock.

It will be evening, I guess.

So a little slower conditions.

I don't think...

Maybe that favors Draper a little bit.

I think Mephedev prefers a slightly quicker hard court.

I think the level that Jack Draper has

is better than Mephedev's level right now.

Mephedev's serve is not what it was two, three, four years ago.

And I think it's probably the biggest reason

that maybe we ever have a mental edge lost as well.

He does seem to have regained it since he changes coaching staff, by the way.

But Jack Draper on a run of wins in the desert

is a really tough one to call.

If Jack Draper had two days rest,

I would be giving this to Jack.

I would be.

It's all about the recovery physically.

Two hours, 35 minutes, by the way, for Jack today.

So that is a good thing.

It was a really grueling test.

I'm going to go with the level.

I'm going to go with the level.

And the level is Jack Draper.

So that's my call.

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