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The recent strikes in Iran have sent shockwaves through the global economy and triggered a massive surge in oil prices. Kris Krohn breaks down why the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical economic bottleneck and what 20 million barrels of oil a day means for your portfolio. Discover why real estate remains the ultimate hedge against geopolitical volatility while the stock market panics.
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Now why am I a lowly real estate investor weighing in on politics?
But not.
At least that's not my intention.
But I keep getting the same question over and over.
Will this conflict with Iran affect the economy?
In the honest answer?
Yeah.
Or at least it absolutely could.
Now as an investor, I am not paid to have political opinions.
I'm paid to be in the know of the movements that can hit the US dollar, that can spike volatility
and ultimately hurt your portfolio of real estate while you're just trying to live your
life.
So I dug in, and I've got a hot take for you.
Now getting you up to speed real quick.
On Saturday, February 28th, 2026, the US and Israel launched major strikes inside Iran
aimed at destroying Iran's military capabilities, including targeting top leadership.
Official report is that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khmeray, was killed in the attack.
Iran then shot back with missile and drone strikes across the whole area, targeting sites
tied to the United States and allied interests around the Gulf, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
United Arab Emirates.
And I have to tell you, my heart goes out to anyone who's been injured or has lost someone
because of what's happening right now.
And I'm grateful for the men and women who serve, who stand in the gap when things get
dangerous and whose lives get impacted first when the world decides to get unstable.
There's a lot of media out there that will go into deeper detail, but as promised, I'm
going to show you how this could affect the US economy.
Here's Mark Rubio, Secretary of State, basically responding to the same question.
Yes, markets reacted immediately, rent crude, which is the benchmark for the price of oil,
briefly surged as high as 13% due to fears around the rate of hormones, which we're going
to talk about in just a second.
Meanwhile, stocks did what stocks always do when there's uncertainty.
They sold first, they asked questions later.
On March 3rd, 2026, indexes were down sharply.
The Dow plunged 650 points, and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were each down around 1.6 to 1.7%.
Now, Rubio didn't give us much assurance.
I don't know what he means when he says a program is going to be implemented by Secretary
Wright.
This sounds more like a politician's dodge to the question, to be honest.
Here's German Chancellor Friedrich Mars responding to the same question.
When they say energy costs, they're talking about oil and oil is the center of the economic
impact.
And the major exports of the region and the US as well as a lot of other countries have
a vested interest in where that price goes.
Why?
Because oil doesn't just affect what you pay at the pump.
It quietly sets the floor for transportation, manufacturing, shipping, food costs.
So when oil jumps, inflation pressure follows.
And that can force central banks to stay tighter for longer, which hits borrowing costs,
which then affects all investors like you and me when we're trying to invest in real
estate or move real estate or do business, it's affecting the interest rates.
This is an oil corridor, the Persian Gulf, but more importantly, the Strait of Hormuz,
which is a narrow strip of water that oil tankers have to pass through to leave the region.
Twenty percent of the world's daily oil consumption moves through the Strait of Hormuz.
Roughly 20 million barrels a day.
That's a lot.
The good news is everybody relies on it, including countries that don't agree on anything else,
which means there's a lot of pressure to keep those tankers moving and to keep the
lane from turning into a long-term blockade.
And here's my take, whether there is a severe economic impact or just a blip, it just comes
down to time.
A spiking crude oil prices happens, but it will come back down as long as it doesn't
last.
The real damage happens if the bottleneck persists and energy stays elevated long enough
to feed inflation.
Now if it turns into a Ukraine situation, oil could be bottled up and I don't think that's
going to happen.
I think leaders are aware that this needs to be over quickly.
Remember, 20 million barrels a day are feeding through that Strait.
In fact, here's a tweet from Trump after the initial attack.
I ran just stated that they're going to hit very hard today, harder than they've ever
hit before.
They better not do that, however, because if they do, we will hit them with a force that
has never been seen before.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
Now this sounds to me like he wants this over pretty fast.
He wants to hit hard.
He wants to be done, getting oil moving again quickly.
Also, it doesn't seem like Iranian forces are going to be able to extend the conflict
the way that you crained it in 2022.
Look, Iran can make things ugly in the short term, but dragging this out for months, that's
going to be really hard for them.
Long wars, they cost a fortune.
And Iran's economy is already weak from years of sanctions and financial pressure.
The panic premium in oil right now, it's going to fade and the market's going to settle
down once traders realize that this is just a spike, it's not a permanent supply problem.
Now this is exactly why I'm always preaching the game of real estate, the stock market.
It goes up and down from day to day.
Real estate doesn't move like that.
It's slower, it's steadier, it's way less reactive, and it's more like a train that
just keeps chugging along.
It ain't a roller coaster that's basically raging up and down.
And the reason is simple, it's a hard asset tied to a real human need.
People still need somewhere to live where the Dow is up and down, whether oil spikes
from this week to the next or whether politicians are yelling at each other on TV, it's
going to move.
Now listen, you guys know that I hate 401K's IRAs.
I don't believe in them.
They don't work.
Do the math.
It's never going to give you retirement that you want.
You're going to have to take your own financial future into your own hands.
That's why I hope people become passive real estate investors because we're seeing it right
now with the Dow Jones, the stock market, look at what just happened.
Markets are heavily driven, ultimately by crowd opinion in the short term.
But at home, it has utility, it has long-term intrinsic value.
So when you buy the right kind of property, you're not betting on sentiment, you're owning
something that serves to man every single day.
That's it for today's episode of Habitall.
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And join us tomorrow on the next episode.
Shit, will you run out of the way?
Like I said, it should.
