Iran Hormuz Closure Causes Energy Supply Shock; US Mulls Invasion; Fears Long War; Tehran Devastated

Good day! Today is Wednesday 4th March 2026 and before I proceed with this program,

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indicate that fact. Now, over the last 24 hours, judging from certain reports I received in

the British media, it appears that the Iranian capital, Tehran, experienced the heaviest

day of bombing in the war up to now. I say bombing, though I also understand that most of the

attacks continue to be conducted with long-range missiles, perhaps from outside Iran's borders,

but I'm not going to pretend that I have a completely detailed or complete understanding

of ongoing military operations. But anyway, the strikes on Tehran, the attacks on Tehran

yesterday, appeared to have been on an astonishing scale. There was a report in the Daily Telegraph,

a newspaper that is strongly supportive of Israel and which has consistently advocated a military

assault on Iran, just to say, and which supports regime change in Iran. Anyway, this article in the

Daily Telegraph, which, by the way, was extremely unpopular with a large section of its very,

very pro-Israeli readership. Anyway, this article spoke about an apocalyptic situation of massive

devastation in Tehran itself of hospital buildings having been hit, of damage being done to civilian

places, of civilian residential buildings being struck as well, of food queues and of people trying

to die out milk supplies in order to ensure that their children continue to receive milk and

altogether of an absolutely terrible situation in Iran yesterday. Now, I understand that the journalist

who wrote that article is not located in Tehran, that he received his information from sources

within Tehran, but for the record other British journalists who are indeed on the scene in Tehran

gave perhaps less vivid but nonetheless also pretty stark accounts of what took place in Iran yesterday.

There was a similar lengthy article, for example, in the financial times and there were shorter

articles in the Guardian, the article in the financial times, both the article in the financial

times and the article in the Guardian also spoke about hospitals having been hit or damaged

over the course of the bombing and also spoke of extensive devastation in Tehran itself

and they also importantly, at least in the financial times, gave some sense of what the targets,

the specific targets that lay behind these missile and bombing strikes might have been,

because it seems that there has been a campaign to destroy police stations across Tehran.

Presumably with the intention of weakening the government's response in the event that large

scale protests against the government actually take place. The problem with that kind of strategy

is that though the financial times found one person who was still critical of the government in

Tehran despite the bombing and the damage and though there were perhaps rather more such people

in a similar article that report by the BBC. Other reports on the contrary speak of a stiffening

or resistance, a shock and dismay at the lengths to which the United States and the Israelis

are taking this operation. There was one rather plaintiff comment in the article in the financial

times by a student who was identified as an opponent of the government. He asked what kind of

country would he have when the war was over. He said that people like him in Tehran had

expected specific attacks that would weaken the government, not the kind of wholesale destruction

that seemed to be taking place and he clearly was profoundly shocked by the scale of the devastation.

So anyway I say I mention all of this. I understand perhaps the logic of the attacks on the police

stations but it does seem to me that the attacks the two plays yesterday and apparently there were

also heavy attacks on Monday on Tehran that perhaps not quite as heavy as the ones the two plays

yesterday. Anyway it seems to me that they are acquiring now a character which and I have to say

this is starting to remind me of what took place in Gaza during the long conflict there which by

the way has not finished and well at a political level it's totally counterproductive but at a

humane level at the level of humanity it is completely devastating and appalling and well

I don't know that there's very much more I can say. Anyway there it is I should add that

there are now several reports that important historic buildings in Tehran have also been

damaged. The goal is Starn Palace which is the Palace of the Iranian Shars is mostly built by

the previous Qajar dynasty in the 18th and 19th century. It is the most historic and some say

beautiful building in Tehran. I say some say because of course I've never been to Tehran myself.

There's apparently further damage to the Tehran Bazaar which is one of the other great historic

buildings in the Middle East. Richly ironic some would say given that the protests that took place

in Iran in December and January actually began with protests by the merchants of this very Bazaar

but anyway to repeat again apart from the death toll the human devastation the loss of civilian life

the damage to buildings it seems to me that has a military operation this makes no sense

and is going to prove in the end based on all historical knowledge all knowledge of these kind

of attacks on urban centers it is going to prove completely counterproductive. Now many will say

that my words in response to these events have been excessively restrained. I have attempted to

maintain composure though I have found it extremely difficult to do so over the last 24 hours

as these reports have poured in. I remind myself that the key thing to do

even in the face of these events these terrible events is to maintain discipline and conduct

analysis but all I will say is I was profoundly and deeply shocked by the reports that I read

and some of the film which I have seen. Anyway let's move on and discuss the other events

in the war. Now the big thing that's been taking place over the last 24 hours

continues to be the effective closure of the Straits of Hormuz apparently one a grand total

of three tankers managed to slip through the Straits of Hormuz before the Iranians fully closed

them but no others are moving there's been no movement of tankers through the Straits of Hormuz

for the last two days and it doesn't seem as if there's going to be any movement of tankers

at least for a while. Yesterday the president of the United States Donald Trump spoke about how

the United States was going to provide insurance the United States government was itself going to

provide insurance to the various ship owners to enable the ships to start transiting through the

Straits of Hormuz and how escort duties for shipping through the Straits of Hormuz would soon

be provided by the U.S. Navy. Well as to the first there is no word so far on any insurance

package from the U.S. government having been provided and I'm going to guess that in order for

that to happen there would need to be congressional authorization that might take several days

and for the moment at least maritime insurance mostly from London for these ships has stopped.

As for moving the U.S. Navy to the Straits of Hormuz and to the Persian Gulf to conduct escort duties

well as I said many times I am not a military expert but I would have thought that this contained

very significant risks. One of the reasons why the Iranians have not so far been able to inflict

any damage on any American warships is because most of them are located in the Arabian sea

they are continuously in motion the Iranians have launched missiles occasionally trying to strike

them but as many have agreed and have been saying for some time it is extraordinarily difficult for

missiles to hit moving targets and so far the Iranians have been unsuccessful. If the United States

starts to move warships to the Straits of Hormuz and to the Persian Gulf then they become

easily observable by the Iranians they would reduce their ability to maneuver they would be in

other words imprecisely the position where I would have thought Iran would be best positioned

to conduct strikes against them again let me repeat I am not an expert in this in these matters

it may be that the U.S. Navy has particular tricks up its sleeve I don't know about such things

but it seems to me that any deployment of U.S. warships so close to the Iranian shores

within easy range of Iranian anti-ship missiles and other sorts of missiles and of course

drums of which so far as I can see Iran has virtually unlimited quantities well that does seem

to me to be risky it seems to me that taking that kind of step would cause the risks for

American warships exponentially to multiply now it has been pointed out by several commentators

that during the Iran Iraq war of the 1980s at a time when both Iran and Iraq were taking action

striking and destroying shipping in the Persian Gulf that was transporting the oil of each of these

countries the U.S. Navy at that time did provide escort duty for ships that were transiting

through the straits of Hormuz however that was a completely different situation the United States

was not a direct participant in the war between Iran and Iraq there was no secret for many people

that the United States heavily sympathized with Iraq and was providing Iraq with extensive assistance

but the United States itself was not directly attacking Iran and the Iranians who obviously did not

want the United States with its enormous power to join the war had no interest or incentive in

attacking U.S. warships this time it will be different moreover I am going to suggest

that there has been a significant shift in the overall military and technological balance

since the 1980s in the 1980s Iran did not have the capabilities to inflict significant damage

on the U.S. fleet or on U.S. military assets today it seems that to a certain extent at least

it does it has much more effective and powerful missiles than it did then it has drones and of

course drone warfare did not exist to any degree or at least to nothing like this degree the degree

that we are seeing now in the 1980s the fact that the Iranians are able to inflict damage

can be seen right across the Middle East where they have been able to do significant damage

already to U.S. bases to U.S. military installations in places like Qatar and the UAE

and in Bahrain and well I would have thought for all of these reasons that an escort

operation by the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf in the Straits of Hormuz is going to be a far

more problematic and complex and challenging and dangerous and difficult affair than it was in

the 1980s in fact I suspect that comparisons between that operation and the kind of operation

that is being talked about today are extremely unwise anyway that's what I wanted to say about

that the fact is that for the moment oil supplies through the Straits of Hormuz and natural gas

supplies are not moving and in fact we are getting reports that there has been a crash of

production in oil production natural gas production across the Middle East oil production

in Iraq and Iraq is a major oil producer appears to have come to a total stop

Saudi Arabia continues to produce oil and like unlike the other Gulf producers it has pipelines

some pipelines that do enable Saudi Arabia to continue to export oil through other routes that avoid

the Straits of Hormuz though it should be said that the bulk of Saudi oil also has to be exported

through the Straits of Hormuz anyway apparently there's been some reduction in Saudi oil production

and I understand that much more worryingly natural gas production in Qatar has come to a complete stop

and there's been falls in production of oil in the other in the other

Gulf oil producers Q8 the UAE at Qatar

apparently the crisis in natural gas production is even greater than the crisis in oil

there the problems with LNG exports is that Qatar is the third biggest producer of LNG

there is apparently no scope to replace its production the United States is mostly

self-sufficient is self-sufficient in natural gas Russia of course also is

China does import LNG from Qatar in significant volumes but China can probably ramp up imports of

LNG from Russia and here perhaps it's worth pointing out that the big Russian LNG

production facilities and terminals are located in the Arctic so that ships transporting LNG from

the Arctic can at least in theory reach China via the northern sea route through the Pacific

coastline of Russia to China itself avoiding the avoiding international waters sticking

in entirely to Russian and Chinese controlled seas and I suspect something like that will happen

but Europe which has become critically dependent on LNG is in a different position

and other Asian markets that also depend on LNG are in a very difficult position as well

if there is a prolonged cutoff of LNG exports from Qatar then inevitably costs of natural gas

around the world will surge and I'm going to suggest that the region that is by far the most vulnerable

is Europe which of course has cut itself off from imports of Russian natural gas

now on the topic of oil and exports of oil there is a narrative that has been circulating that one

of the countries that is going to be particularly hard hit by the closure of the streets of Hormuz

is going to be China now on this point I should say that I've always been skeptical

but the indispensable al-Nam-Betan has provided some clarity in a lengthy post that he has published

on X and al-Nam-Betan has pointed out that China is 84% self-sufficient in energy it produces oil

and coal and it uses coal very heavily but it's also the leader in nuclear power

the global leader in nuclear power and it also of course has an extensive industry in terms of

batteries solar panels and that kind of thing nonetheless China does import a significant amount of

oil and it has imported oil from the Gulf from Saudi Arabia and Iran Saudi Arabia being a bigger

exporter of oil to China than Iran is however even saying that even allowing for that the

Chinese have recently been importing more and more oil from Russia some of that oil reaches

the pipeline of the Russians are absolutely in a position where they can provide China with more

oil in fact Russia can satisfy all of China's needs for oil some Chinese Russian oil is heavier

than the light crude that the Gulf producers supply and that is a problem for China

I understand that there is a lack of refining capacity in China but these do not seem to me to be

overwhelming problems given that China is 84% self-sufficient the China stockpiled oil before the

start of the conflict apparently Chinese stockpiles of oil are very large and in a recent

program when I made about a week ago I pointed out that people were misreading the large scale

movement of tankers with Russian oil to China it was widely assumed that this was the result of

India reducing imports of Russian oil after the agreement that India had concluded with Donald

Trump I pointed out that it was far more likely to be a case of China stockpiling oil in light

of the growing crisis in the Middle East and the strong likelihood that there would be

a closure of the streets of Hormuz I would suggest that that is exactly what happened

and I would suggest also that this stockpiling by China of oil was a good case of pressience and

planning one not matched by the way by the United States which went straight into this conflict

with its oil reserves at a significantly low level below the 500 million barrels which I believe

is what the United States ideally wants its strategic reserve to be anyway China has as I

said a significant stockpile and it can ramp up production from Russia it's 84% self-sufficient

energy it will find ways to keep going other Asian importers of oil Japan the Philippines are in

the South Korea are in a much more critical position I understand that Japan imports 90% of its oil

from the Gulf and all of it or almost almost all of it passes through the streets of Hormuz

Japan of course is an ally of the United States so is South Korea but again I'm going to suggest that

if there is going to be a critical oil shortage over the next few weeks the most vulnerable places

will be Europe the Indian government is supposedly considering ramping up imports of Russian oil

to make up for any supply shortages from the Gulf it's extraordinary how we've gone from a

narrative just a few weeks ago of India reducing its imports of Russian oil to a narrative now of

India increasing its imports of Russian oil in light of the ongoing crisis supposedly the Indian

government has asked the United States to green light India's decision to import Russian oil

I am very skeptical by the way about the last I would have thought that the Indians would just

go ahead and do it and I wonder why they would want to discuss it with the United States

which it seems to me is in significant disarray on the tariff front anyway in the light of the

Supreme Court's recent tariff decision anyway I'm not going to get into a debate about that

at the present time but yes some of the US's Asian allies might be hard hit by energy shortages

oil and gas shortages but again I cannot help but think that the place where the greatest crisis

is going to be is going to be Europe Europe if this thing continues for many more weeks is going to

find itself in an exceptionally difficult position energy wise now it tends to get forgotten

that there were lots of reports circulating in the media mostly it must be admitted the Russian

media but they were never denied and in fact in a few places I saw them confirm anyway there were

lots of reports just a few weeks ago about how the natural gas reserves Europe's natural gas

reserves were running at a reduced level at the start of this year no one was suggesting that it

was a crisis but now perhaps one might want to reconsider that if there's going to be shortages

global shortages of LNG global shortages that are bound to affect Europe and which are

inevitably going to lead to a major spike in the price of LNG exports to Europe from the United

States then the fact that there are shortages that they're rather not so much shortages that the

natural gas reserves in Europe are running at a reduced level is undoubtedly going to be a problem

even if perhaps crisis might overstate things and as for the United States itself well the United

States is energy self-sufficient it produces oil and it produces gas but as I've discussed in

many programs the global energy market is fungible in other words if there's major increases in

prices around the world it is going to be very difficult indeed for the United States with its

open economy to prevent those increases those surges in prices energy prices from feeding in

to the American economy itself and of course if energy prices start to grow in the United States

then that inevitably is going to lead to higher inflation in the United States all this

in the run-up to what were for the president and his party already looking like difficult midterm

elections in November so this closure of the Straits of Hormuz is a problem yesterday when the

president spoke about the United States the Navy the U.S. Navy providing escorts and the U.S.

providing insurance for ships there was a brief stabilization and even before in energy prices

and also a stabilization of what had up to that time being shall we say a nervous mood in global

stock markets well as the hours passed and as markets operators thought more about this one got

the sense that the reassurance that the president provided somewhat faded and this morning in

Asian markets in particular there was again steep force I understand that things have again

stabilised a little I suspect that a lot of market players are saying to themselves well let's

see how long this situation continues whether perhaps a deal is going to be done whether the war

is going to end whether Iran might indeed collapse or whether the president is able to follow through

with his promises about marine insurance and naval escorts for tankers but if in a week's time

the situation remains essentially as it is now then my prediction is that things are going to go

from bad to worse and we're going to start to see significant rises in energy costs over the next

few weeks and though we are entering the warmer period of the spring and summer so that energy

use is going to be less which is going to dampen the rise in energy costs it would still lead to higher

inflation in the run up to the November election midterms and of course it puts Europe in particular

in a very difficult position come the autumn and winter anyway that's one thing that is happening

in the war for the rest and I'm going to say this if one discounts what happened yesterday over

Tehran I am starting to get the increasing sands that this conflict is indeed metastasizing into

a long duration one now I say that of course there are many uncertainties the president and his

officials continue to insist that there are no shortages of missiles of missile interceptors and

precision guided weapons others have done the math they've looked at production rates of all

of the various missiles and the rates of expenditure and they come to a completely different conclusion

and by the way and for the record I think they are right and that isn't even introducing into

this issue the Joker in the pack which could be a Chinese decision to start restricting exports

of rare earths something which must be hanging over this crisis all the time I will return incidentally

to China and its policies shortly but but nonetheless the war goes on the attacks continue

there were undoubtedly use of B2 bombers to conduct raids inside Tehran there's been pictures

provided of them it's not clear to me exactly what they attacked there are reports that the old

lumbering B52 bombers from the 1950s are also being deployed against Tehran as well whether they're

actually entering Iranian airspace to carry out heavy bombing from there I simply don't know

and I'm not going to try and speculate if they are then it would be a sign that the Iranian air

defense system is indeed very heavily degraded but in the meantime the Iranians with their part

continue to strike at targets at American bases and facilities across the Middle East and in what

I thought was a serious sign of concern the United States appears to have embarked on a wholesale

withdrawal of all its diplomatic staff and the temporary closure of its embassies across the Middle

East which inevitably the governments of some of these countries are going to see as a abandonment

anyway the president and his officials continue to be provide all kinds of contradictory explanations

of the reasons for starting this conflict at this particular point in time there's been

much commentary about Secretary Rubio's claim that the United States attacked Iran because

Israel was about to do so a claim which by the way Secretary Rubio has walked back there's

also many claims that the president and his officials are providing a constantly shifting

series of explanations as to what the ultimate objective in this war is on the last point

I would say that is completely wrong the president and his officials are coming up with all

sorts of different explanations because they can't straightforwardly say what the actual one is

and has been all along which is regime change the president and his administration or at least

the dominant groups within his administration the people who are in the ascendancy within the

administration clearly decided long ago before the June 2025 war what their objective was

it is regime change that was what they attempted in the June 2025 war that is what was attempted

with the December January protests in Iran and that is what is being attempted once more now

the problem the president and his officials have is that they are not able to provide a legal

case to justify their objective for regime change a legal and a moral case and it is the difficulty

of explaining that which is causing the problem but the objective to achieve regime change in Iran

has always been there I have come to the conclusion that the president himself

agreed this with Israelis and with some of his donors and supporters during the 2024 election

and when he was inaugurated he embarked he was already fully committed to achieving that policy

so this is what this whole operation is all about after the failure of the June 2025 war

which I said was a regime change war when it was conducted I said that the business of

regime change remained unfinished remained undone and that guaranteed that there would be a further

attempt made over the next few months I thought that it might be made before the end of last year

I think in some ways the protests were that attempt when that failed we see this massive deployment

of military forces to the Middle East and the objective of that deployment was to facilitate

regime change in Iran now the probable strategy and it's perhaps worth reiterating that I do not have

access to the internal discussions within the administration the Pentagon does not share its plans

with me just to say anyway the probable plan the plan that makes overwhelming sense to me

is that the intention was as it was in June to eliminate Iran's supreme leader the the Ayatollah

Hamanay as many of the other key officials in Iran as possible and the assumption was that this

would create a power vacuum in Iran leading to the implosion of the government I suspect that

one of the rationalizations that was circulating amongst the regime change community in Israel and

the United States after the failure of the June 2025 war was that though Israel succeeded

in killing a large number of senior Iranian officials they failed to kill the most important one

of all who was Hamanay and that this time killing Hamanay would be made the priority on the assumption

that without Hamanay the entire system in Iran would be headless and would quickly unravel

now that has not happened we have not yet seen we have seen in fact no sign of either disintegration

of the government in Iran in that way and here I get to say a few things firstly I was reading a

very interesting article about Hamanay which was published in the Iranian media I read it yesterday

and it said that Hamanay as well as being a rather ascetic individual made it a particular point

of policy and lifestyle that he would live a life very much out in the open that he would not

hide in bunkers or in secret locations or surround himself with elaborate security measures and

armed details because he felt he strongly felt and took his cue from his predecessor the founder

of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Hamanay that in order to retain legitimacy in order to keep

a proper grasp and feel of the situation in Iran the supreme leader had to live as close to the wider

population in a simple and as straightforward away and in an as accessible way as possible

Hamanay Hamanay's predecessor apparently made a point throughout the Iranian War of remaining

in Iran of occupying his usual residence or avoiding staying in a bunker because he felt that it

was essential through that war to convey to the Iranian people that he was sharing their dangers

and their suffering and apparently Hamanay very much Hamanay's disciple chose intentionally

to do the same thing there's been a brilliant article in R in Unheard by a American commentator

Arta Moeni who by the way I met I was privileged to meet last year in Georgia into my trip to

Georgia and who understands she is and Iran very well anyway there's a brilliant article that

explains again how all of this works and how for Hamanay and for the entire political system

in Iran his death through as they would say martyrdom is a major religitimizing factor and that

it will have strengthened and consolidated the entire political system in Iran all over again

and I should say that I've also had a email from a member of the

Iran community who is based in Nigeria who's a engineer based in Nigeria who's at another

brilliant article about how Hamanay's reach as a religious leader extended far beyond Iran's

own borders and brought in sheer communities right across the Middle East in Africa and around the

world so if the assumption was in Jerusalem and Washington that eliminating Hamanay was going to

result in regime change that this somehow would solve the problem of why regime change didn't happen

following the decapitation strike in June well as of today that looks like a miscalculation

and that may explain what looked to me like all sorts of steps that the administration is now taking

as it tries to find its way through a crisis that is different from the one that it had previously

imagined so whereas the messaging before the attack on Iran was that the attack would be

a short easy conflict now the narrative has turned to talking about a long war

we have I seen reports that the administration realising the increasing financial cost

of this operation is now debating turning to congress for an appropriation to continue with this conflict

which is of course a clear sign that it expects it to continue for a long time there's also reports

that the United States is now attempting seriously to involve the Kurdish militias who are based

in Iraq in this operation against Iran to try to get the Kurdish militias to invade Iran

to try to conduct operations against the government there to begin the process if you will

of disintegrating Iran and there are even some claims that the United States is trying

to persuade the Aliyev government in Azerbaijan to do the same thing and lastly we now have a

drumbeat of reports that the United States is reconsidering the previous decision to rule out

deploying boots on the ground that at some point some kind of invasion force of Iran is going to

put together though again for what precise objective it is extremely difficult to say

I have also seen polling coming out of the United States

Robert Barnes was kind enough to send me the results of an opinion poll

which show decisive majorities of Americans opposed to this conflict and perhaps most alarmingly

for the president himself a clear majority of Republicans in opposing this conflict also

and saying that the president has gone back on the promise he repeatedly made during

the November sorry during the 2024 election campaign to keep the United States out of wars

so the president looking for a long war for the Murmord was having to face the possibility of a

long war having to turn to Congress for funding and he probably has support in Congress for the

moment to obtain funding having to start making overtures to Iraqi militia units and having to

even contemplate the possibility of the US military being involved in ground operations inside

Iran all of this because the initial assumption that regime change would happen quickly

is not being realised and it's clear to me that there's not been unanimity within the

administration itself about this operation either there's been many comments about the ambiguous

position that the vice president JD Vance is taking his long silence after the operation began

the fact that he did not join with the president himself in the room where the president was

being briefed in the first few hours of the conflict about the progress of the operation

of the vice president on the contrary observing things from an entirely different location the

situation room in the White House where he had Chelsea Gabbard the director of national intelligence

who is also widely believed to be skeptical of this operation and interestingly the US treasury

secretary Scott Besson that they were there and well there's been commentaries about the vice

presidents skepticism extensive commentaries about this in the British media which do make me wonder

with a some people in London who are far from happy with the development of this war

which for the record they see as a diversion from the war that really matters which is the one

against Russia if Ukraine just say whether they might be hoping that at some point the vice president

JD Vance will step in and bring everyone in Washington to their senses but there was perhaps an even

more public sign of skepticism as well and this came from the assistant secretary of defense

Elbridge Colby he gave testimony to Congress I watched it very carefully I noticed that Colby

went against the whole constructed narrative now that there was an imminent threat from Iran

or that the operation was about achieving regime change in Iran he seemed to be speaking as if

he wanted this thing over and done with as quickly as possible and to be clear Colby is in no

sense soft he is somebody who absolutely clearly strongly believes in the importance to maintain

US primacy what he wants however is to focus on the defense of the heartland of the western hemisphere

and in the Asia Pacific region just as he has been critical of those within the United States

who have been obsessively focused with Russia and Europe and who have therefore wanted to continue

to shovel the systems to Ukraine so I get the sense that Colby is equally skeptical about those

who are obsessed with Iran and with the Middle East and who want to continue to shovel military

aid to Israel and who want to assist Israel in his various operations including the current one

against Iran also at the expense of focusing on the theaters that Colby believes are the truly

important ones the western hemisphere and the Middle East well there it is for the moment and it's

important to stress this the hardliners the anti-Iran hardliners remaining the ascended it could be

that as problems with the oil prices start to bite especially if this has an effect on the

financial markets and also as the depletion of US arsenals accelerates it could be the

dependulum in the administration will shift and that we will start to see people in the administration

start to rethink this thing and that the president himself might begin to become increasingly nervous

and willing to reconsider but for the moment he remains completely committed to it he initially

made some overtures to the Iranians about beginning negotiations as I said in a recent program

Iran the man who's running things in Iran laryjani said no since then the president has as he always

does double down the White House has issued an extraordinary statement talking about removing the

terrorist regime and all of that but it's about worth pointing out that the president himself during

the June 2025 war spoke about forcing Iran into unconditional surrender of being the objective

of that war and then of course he pulled back from that when it became clear that it would not

be achieved and it was Israel that was suffering increasing damage from Iranian missile strikes

so perhaps one shouldn't place excessive weight on what the president is saying but for the

moment he remains committed he continues to insist as I said yesterday that there are no shortages

of key weapons I think those as I said who've done the maths can clearly see that they are

he is raging against his predecessor Joe Biden forgiving all the weapons to Ukraine in fact he

said this now on many many occasions and he's been incredibly rude about the Ukrainian president

Vladimir Zelensky in ways that clearly show his fundamental disinterest in the Ukrainian conflict

and his anger at the way in which weapons were diverted to help Ukraine instead of doing the

thing that he really cares about at least at the moment which is fighting Iran and of course he's

also raging at some of the European leaders he's raging at Prime Minister Starmer of Britain

who in the incredibly weak political position in which he finds himself is unable to join

the United States and Israel in offensive operations against Iran

worst armor to try to do that that would be the moment when he would cease to be Prime Minister just

saying and he is raging the president is also raging against Prime Minister Sanchez of Spain

and Spain altogether because the Spanish have had the frontery to criticize this operation

as by the way his France and are saying that they won't become involved and the president

is now threatening some kind of economic blockade against Spain I'm not sure how that works legally

by the way given that Spain is a member of the European Union and but anyway that's what he said

and incredibly and bizarrely the president is receiving support from none other than Chancellor

Mouts of Germany who's just been to the United States. Mertz is a very very long standing and very

devoted supporter of Israel so that he supports this operation against Iran is not surprising

but incredibly Mertz seemed to support economic coercion by the United States against Spain

an EU country a country in other words within the same economic block as the one the Germany

purports to lead I'm not going to waste time trying to unravel the absurdities and contradictions

of all of that when someone talks in this way when he behaves in this strange fashion as President

Trump is doing trying to stir up Iraqi militias saying all of these extraordinary things about

Starmer and Sanchez and Britain and Spain I can't help but think that he's reflecting the immense anger

and frustration and stressed he privately feels because the desired objective in Iran of regime change

has not been fulfilled well here I'm going to also say a few things about the bricks powers now

there's a narrative circulating the China is putting pressure on Iran to reopen the straits of

Hormuz this is not true actually this is how the Chinese foreign ministry explains China's position

in response to immediate question that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had claimed that

they currently control the state of Hormuz an important route for oil and gas transportation

and had noted that any vessel attempting to pass through the strait could be subject to

missile or drone attacks Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that the

state of Hormuz and its surrounding waters are important international channels for cargo and

energy trade emphasizing that safeguarding security and stability in this region is in the common

interest of the international community China urges all parties to immediately cease military

operations avoid further escalation of tensions prevent further tab turbulence and avoid causing

greater impacts on the global economy so what the Chinese are saying is that what needs to happen

is not for Iran to give up to stop blockading the straits of Hormuz but for everyone to stop

for Iran obviously to stop but for the United States and Israel to stop also

for there to be a complete cessation of hostilities for the United States and Israel in other words

to give up the project of regime change in Iran and if you go to Russian statements

they are saying exactly the same as I discussed in my program yesterday Putin and MBS the Crown

Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia had a telephone conversation yesterday the Russian

readout is actually quite interesting it clearly floats the possibility of eventual Russian

mediation and rather interestingly the proposal seems to have come ultimately from MBS himself

I'll read the Russian readout both sides express serious concern over the real risks of

geographical expansion of the conflict which has already affected several Arab states

and is fraught with potentially catastrophic consequences in this regard Vladimir Putin

emphasized the need to resolve the extremely dangerous situation at hand via political and

diplomatic means in turn Mohammed bin Salman al-Saud opined in the words suggested that the

Russian side could presently pray a positive stabilizing role given the friendly ties it has

with both Iran and the Gulf states so one can understand MBS's position which is the position

of all of the other Gulf states they depend on exports of energy products they are their lifeline

the United States Europe might experience China Japan they might experience significant problems

if the energy flow through the straits of Hormuz remains indefinitely stocked but for the Gulf states

this is an existential matter energy exports are their lifeblood so MBS according to many reports

privately urged Trump and the Americans to go ahead with his operation against Iran

he probably assumed as many others did that Iran would implode very quickly as soon as Hamanai

had been killed he now has reasons to fear otherwise and he is looking to the Russians

to conduct mediation now I should say that contrary to what many think

Russia does not have a big a great amount of experience in mediating conflicts the last time

I can remember when he did so successfully was in 1965 during one of the Pakistani Indian wars

when the then Soviet Prime Minister Alexey Kosegan successfully mediated a cessation of hostilities

between Pakistan and India at a meeting in Tashkent but anyway one can see how in time

the Russians might become involved and of course if they do they will milk this to their advantage

already there are lots of reports saying exactly what I mentioned previously in an earlier program

that for the moment for the Russians this conflict comes for them with many advantages

energy prices are rising more countries are going to need Russian oil and gas

especially if the closure of the Straits of Hormuz continues for very long

nobody in Moscow seriously believes that the Europeans are going to resume buying

Russian oil and gas and I don't get the sense that the Russians have enthusiastic about selling

oil and gas to the Europeans but of course in conditions of worldwide energy shortage even

Russia's favorite customers India and China are going to have to play more as other countries

also will attempts to block aid block Russian exports

likely before long if this situation continues are going to have to be abandoned

the United States is diverting all these weapons to the Middle East Trump is complaining

about the fact that weapons were sent instead or wasted by being sent to Ukraine that's going to

leave Zelensky and his government in Ukraine shorter weapons at the very time when the Russians

are preparing their big spring offensive so Moscow Putin already makes already gains as short-term

gains and if the mediation if their services as mediators are requested then of course they will

seek to build on these short-term gains they might start to make further demands for example

not just about Ukraine but about the recalibration of the security architecture in Europe just say

but for the moment I don't think that the Russians are going to rush to make themselves available

as mediators nor do I think will the Chinese join them the Russians will wait and see

for the situation to ripen before they take such a step if this conflict does indeed metastasize

into a long conflict which is Iran's strategy then maybe maybe the mood in Washington will shift

and that will be the moment for the Russians and perhaps the Chinese but more the Russians than

the Chinese to step in we are very far from that point yet Iran in the meantime is said to be

very close to announcing who harmonies successor as the new supreme leader is going to be

Iran also is far from guaranteed at the present time to come through this all intact the forces

that are attacking it are immensely powerful and the conflict in this conflict

Iran's own military power though perhaps not inconsequential is hardly such as it can balance

the far greater striking power of its adversaries so for the Russians to intervene

for the Russians to act as mediators firstly they have to be sure that Iran will come through

and secondly they have to be sure that the Americans facing faced by the growing costs of the war

worried about the depletion of their arsenals unable perhaps to counter Iranian missile strikes

on Israel and the Iranians are saying that they've not yet drawn on their arsenal of their most

potent missiles the Russians will need to be sure that the Iranians are in a sufficiently strong

position where they look like a convincing negotiating partner and are prepared to negotiate

and one where the United States having failed in his objective to achieve regime change

and facing growing economic and military costs is obliged to seek mediation

is in a weaker position and is prepared to cut its losses and to stop we are to reiterate again

some way or way from being there now we have to be prepared for all sorts of things to happen

for the moment Iran has held together there is no guarantee at least I cannot provide any

guarantee that it will I still don't know the full realities of the internal situation in Iran

I do not know the size of Iranian missile stockpiles or of Iran's ability to keep

replacing the missiles it uses and adding to its stockpile I would have thought that the Iranians

could probably continue to manufacture drones pretty much whatever happens if Ukraine can make drones

even as it is under missile and bombing strikes by the Russians then presumably Iran can do the

same and there's always the potential of having the drones made in other places in central Asia

China in Russia too if it comes to that and having them sent into Iran itself about missile

production I would have thought that the big factories are coming under significant attack now

and it might not be possible for the Iranians to replace their missile stockpiles and that

rings us back to the question of how big those missile stockpiles are and then there are the

uncertainties about the Kurds and then there are the uncertainties about Azerbaijan but for the

moment Iran stands if this continues and if this does metastasize into a long wall then as I said

the balance changes and it shifts to Iran's advantage but we are not there yet we will probably

start to get a better sense of where all this is going in say roughly two weeks time until then

we must be prepared for any eventuality all that I think we can say at the moment

is that Iran has proved more resilient than the Americans expected and we see the frustration

and the worry in Washington start to grow anyway that's what I'm going to say about this conflict

in the Middle East today I repeat what I said at the start of this program the events in

Tehran yesterday seemed to me to have been events of horror and this is a completely unprovoked

war which I would describe as a war of aggression there's a fine article about this

in responsible state craft by Anatol Leven who dams the hypocrisy of European leaders who lack

the courage to say this but if I was to say with complete confidence that I knew what the outcome

of this conflict would be I would be saying a great deal more than I know now I get to finish

by quickly rounding off with a situation about Ukraine it seems to me that for the moment at least

we can forget about negotiations there is lots of talk about another massive Russian missile

and drone strike on Ukraine being prepared and well it looks as if Ukrainian positions in the North

in Slavyansk are disintegrating the Russians appear to have captured significant territories

around Slavyansk and it looks as if they're about to begin the operation to capture the key

village near Slavyansk of Rai Alexanderovka which is at the top of an important hill which

would enable the Russians to look down on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk and to interrupt the communications

between the two and it looks as if the Russian advance towards Olehov continues the difference

I should say in the way this war the war in Ukraine has been conducted from the war

against Iran is astonishing the Russians continue a systematic methodical military campaign

they have clear objectives they're not overcommitting to the war they're maintaining stability

in their own internal economy they're building up their diplomatic position

and they can be confident that eventually this war will end on their terms

in a way that will put them in a position of advantage this attack against Iran by contrast

has an extraordinary frenetic violent quality I would say almost a hysterical quality

in the midst of all the death and destruction and violence which what concerns is the product

of it being in the end a reckless gamble well that's what I'm going to say today about the situation

there'll be more from me soon in the meantime just to remind you again that you can find all our

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this video and the very last thing for me it is very difficult days is to wish you all wherever

you are peace and safety and a very good day

you