Iran REJECTS Trump's 15 Point Peace Plan | PBD #765

Did you ever think you would make it?

I feel I'm supposed to take a sweet victory.

Know this life meant for me.

I don't.

What's your promise?

The future looks bright.

And Jacob is better than anything I ever saw.

It's right here.

Can you borrow one of one?

I'll send you right there.

I'll take a look.

I'm going to sell this for you.

Okay, so we got business podcasts.

Wednesday, we have the Great Barrier beef here with us,

as well as Brandon Aceto and Tom Ellsworth,

the goal is to get smarter and make better decisions.

It's a lot going on.

I mean, obviously we have to still continue talking about

the stuff that's going on with Iran.

I think there's a 15 point plan to end the war with Iran

as Trump says.

The regime has agreed to scrap nuclear program.

What does that really mean?

Iran's come back and made their request.

They want reparations for the damages that is taking place.

We'll go back and forth.

We'll address that.

And then at the same time, just this morning,

could have been last night,

but I think it's this morning,

the age to join the military that was always 3435.

Because I'll never forget being in boot camp

and a 34 year old guy was with us.

We were 18, 19 years old.

I was like, what are you doing?

He says, I got out.

Did eight years.

Want to come back in to finish my 20 years?

I said, you're 3334.

Maximum age at the time was 3435.

Now, as of today,

for some of you that are open and interested,

Vinnie's outside right now trying to get a job.

Just so you guys know that.

He's concerned.

He's worried that AI is going to replace his character

on the podcast.

And he says, look, I got to go back into the military.

The age is officially from 35 to 42 years old.

I wonder why.

Maybe they want you.

They need you.

We'll talk about it.

Vinnie's requesting if they can raise it to 48.

They're not listening to him.

But we'll see what's going to happen there.

Aside from that,

a few other things that's going on.

Wall Street Journal comes out with a story.

What everything that's being talked about,

you would think

they're talking about lowering the rates, right?

But no.

Wall Street Journal comes out with a story.

Talking about a fed likely hikes next.

Not cuts.

Wall Street Journal.

Just a couple of days ago.

They're talking about that.

What do you mean rate hikes?

Well, maybe they're going to be raising the rates

when it comes on to no masks for ice agents for airports.

A lot of videos going around showing the fact that ice agents

are being polite,

given water,

taking care of people being respectful to them.

So there's a lot of good messaging right now going with ice agents.

Going out there working while TSA agents that are not working.

I don't know what the number is.

Over 400 TSA agents have,

TSA employees have full-on quits since the shutdown.

Absence hit 12% of the 30,000 workforce.

That's 3450.

As of Sunday,

if you're traveling,

it's still not a good sign.

And a lot of,

some places are addressing it.

Some places are not.

A hidden $580 million oil bet.

I don't even know if it's hidden because we know about it.

But it was a $580 million oil bet

just before Trump's Iran announcement.

6200 contracts.

Can you imagine quickly you put into money?

Boom.

You made a ton of money right afterwards.

A lot of people,

6200 people were parked.

Who knew?

How did they know?

What did they know?

We'll address that.

Michael Burries got some thoughts that we'll get into on the SMP.

His concern.

There's a story that came out with a Seap Geek job listing.

Very weird.

Who posts a job listing?

And the way they describe it,

advertising up to 25,

they're paying $121,000,

$275,000,

analytics engineer,

and advertising up to $25,000,

engender affirming care benefits.

Is that a recruiting tactic today?

By the way,

we're about to show our recruiting video.

We don't offer that.

If you're thinking whether we don't offer that here.

If you're going to do something like that,

you can go pay it for it yourself.

It's not your an adult.

You can do it.

But can you imagine it's gotten to a point

that some companies are so woke

that they're thinking by doing that.

They're going to get people that are going to come work for them.

Maybe it's going to work.

Maybe we're the naive ones.

And they're the ones that are right.

Obviously, we know the answer to that question.

New York City homeowners age.

Average age of New York City homeowners.

It's record high.

You know how old the average age is today?

58.8 years old.

59 years old homeowners.

And we have a gas prices story.

We'll get into just this morning.

I think oil is at 88.

The Dow is up two points.

Everything is up about two points.

S&P, NASDAQ,

everything's up to.

We'll address those stories as well.

Aside from that,

we got more things going on with Iran

that we got to talk about.

There's a story that came out by

Iran's tax to rich or killing come taxes.

States are divided on what to do.

Flat out divided on what to do with numbers.

We'll talk about that with California, Washington, Florida, Texas.

And then Russia.

Largest oil port crippled and huge Ukrainian drone attack.

This came out of nowhere.

Nobody was a wait a minute.

While this is going on with Iran,

Ukraine is attacking Russia.

Yes, why?

Well, Ukraine is trying to say,

Hey, man, you're not going to sell that oil.

We have to put some pain in you

because while they're negotiating their terms,

we haven't finalized our terms.

What do you want to do?

Can you imagine Zelensky's position?

This is a great time to make some noise.

While everybody is looking at the other side,

let's come and do this.

Dave Ramsey warns the young, hopeful,

locked out of housing market.

Corporate America has screwed you.

That's Dave Ramsey will address that.

Anthropics has clawed.

Lots of news this week with Claude.

I don't know if you've been following it.

A lot of news this week with Claude.

Anthropics says Claude can now use your computer

to finish tasks for you in AI agent push.

I'll have Tom share with you guys what Claude is doing

if he's comfortable with it.

I'm sure he is.

He'll share some of those stories with because he's,

there's a girl we keep hearing about Courtney.

And we're kind of hearing about Courtney a little too much lately.

None of us have met her.

She's a secret.

We can't meet her, but she's emailing all of us.

And so this Courtney girl, wherever you are,

please reveal yourself.

Everyone's trying to know who you are.

And Vinny wants to know if you're single.

We don't know that yet.

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Go for it and play this clip.

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with that being said, let's get right into it.

First thing I want to talk about is,

Story.com's out, US sends 15-point plan to end war with Iran

as Trump says the regime has agreed to scrap the nuclear program.

Okay, so let's read through this.

The US has sent a 15-point plan and cease proposal

to end the war in the Middle East, and President Trump claims

the regime has already agreed to a critical part of the peace

known nuclear weapons.

Deva agreed, Trump said Tuesday, of his biggest demand,

Rob, is this the president's speaking?

Yes, sir.

Go for it.

Was the turning point to make you want to pursue a ceasefire?

A few days ago, you said you wanted to continue bombing Iran.

Now you want to pursue peace talks.

Was there something that happened?

The fact that they're talking to us and they're talking since.

And remember, it all starts with they cannot have a nuclear weapon.

Just, you know, I said yesterday, what are they said?

What are the top 10?

I said, well, number one, two and three is they can't have a nuclear weapon.

And they're not going to have a nuclear weapon.

And we're talking about that.

And I don't want to say in advance, but they've agreed,

they will never have a nuclear weapon.

They've agreed to that.

Okay, so that's what the president is saying.

This is the 15 points.

Iran must dismantle existing nuclear program.

That's number one.

Number two, Iran must commit never to person nuclear weapons.

It's the same as number one, but it's like we're never going to have a number three.

You know, uranium enrichment on uranium territory.

They're all the same thing.

But again, that's number three.

Number four, Iran must hand its stockpile of enriched uranium

to the international atomic energy agency.

Four, four, four, same topic.

Five.

The Natanz Esfahan and Fordon nuclear facilities must be dismantled.

What does that mean?

The IAEA must be granted full access to Iran's nuclear facilities.

Great.

The Iran must abandon its regional proxy paradigm.

Eight.

Iran must seize the funding directing and arming its proxies.

Nine.

The Strait of Hormuz must remain open.

Ten.

Iran's missile program must be limited in both range and quantity.

Seven.

Iran must limit its use of missiles to self-defense

and return Iran would benefit from their 12th,

the end of sanctions imposed by the international community,

the U.S. assistant to advance its civilian nuclear program,

and U.S. snapback mechanism allowing for automatic re-imposition

of sanctions if Iran fails to comply would be removed.

Now, this is what they said.

Rob, do we have anything of them responding to this?

Because I think that was also what the Iranian Foreign Minister

responded as well.

Tom, I'll come to you first and I'm very next.

Tom, your thoughts on this?

Well, there's basically four points to it.

When you see 15, Pat was very correctly pointing out in those top six.

So you have A, nuclear program, uranium, manufacturing facilities, that's A.

B, Hamas and Hezbollah.

You must stop funding them.

C, you can build missiles but only little ones to defend your borders

and then D, the sanctions go away.

So it's nukes, Hamas, missiles, and sanctions.

And that's a 15 point which you get down to it.

Now, what's interesting about this is they are so dedicated to it.

They tried previously to get them to a degree in nuclear program.

They didn't do it.

When I see this, I hope we get some progress on it.

I hope there's a negotiation.

I hope that all the destruction of so much infrastructure and things

that we've gone after is sending a message that gets them over the line.

But this is only part of it for me.

The other part for me here is who are they negotiating with?

Who's going to sign the paper?

The current regime.

What happened about a new regime that would bring the people back

to the glory of Iran and all the people that were protesting in the streets

and the ones that were slaughtered for something?

Pat, who signs this?

If the current regime signs it?

Okay, so what?

The war's over.

But now, don't we go back to the people?

Yeah, I mean, the question that becomes.

So it's neither a regime change or a regime collapse.

So which one was it?

Correct.

But now, the current regime is going to sign a document.

Of course.

So guess what?

You're in charge.

What was accomplished?

For the people that are now in the...

First of all, what do you think the IRGC does minutes after this gets signed

if it's the same regime?

Oh, they're going to go back.

Oh, it's...

We have pride month.

They're going to have head bashing month.

You know, it's terrible.

Yeah, that won't be changing.

That won't be changing.

Very worried about with this.

So look, you're right, Tom.

Clearly, but what we would accomplish is the three important things.

If we could stop the money flow to Hamas, Hezbollah, you know, Houthis.

If we could do that, that's a very big plus for us.

If we can keep oil flow through the straight-of-form moves without it being

a future threat that it will be shut down, that's great for us.

That's great for us.

That's great for worldwide economy.

And I think the stock market's kind of reacting to that this morning.

And of course, the several points on the no-nukes that you mentioned.

The thing I worry about is compliance, because we've heard this from them before.

So I don't know how they would get around having Iran potentially do something that's sneaky.

If that could be contemplated, then I think that the give on the side of the U.S.

is saying, hey, in lieu of boots on the ground, in lieu of loss of life,

in lieu of further economic harm, we have to leave the current regime in place.

I think that when you sum it up, and Tom did an excellent job as well,

I think when you sum it up, that's the give that is being thought of to say,

okay, if we can accomplish these things, that's pretty good progress.

We don't get everything, but it's pretty good progress.

Brandon.

Yeah, I mean, at this point, I think if we make peace with them with this current,

whatever you call it, regime right now, whoever's leading things,

I think that's a worse situation than before.

And I mean, if we do happen to make a peace deal with them,

the most important thing is that they actually agree to less inspect their facilities thoroughly.

Because if you guys remember the Iran nuclear deal that Obama made,

it was essentially we give Iran a ton of money, billions and billions of dollars,

in return for them promising not to develop nuclear weapons.

I think they were supposed to cap uranium enrichment at like 3%,

but they never less inspect it.

So they were doing all the things they weren't supposed to do.

We weren't holding them accountable for the inspections.

So that's why they have things like the missiles that go much farther than we thought.

I don't necessarily think that they have enriched your aim to the degree that people are saying

on using it as the grounds to do this invasion.

But they could have all kinds of things we don't know about,

because we didn't hold them accountable with the inspections.

So I think at this point, with how far we've gone,

I think you go harder and go more savage with them,

and just get it over with, because it's going to be a worse situation.

Why are we delaying the inevitable?

They're not going to stop giving money to the terrorist groups.

They're not going to stop trying to have a nuclear weapon,

because look how much we leave North Korea alone.

Now they have nuclear weapons.

So they're trying to follow that model.

Yeah, and by the way, Rob, if you want to play this clip,

because the Foreign Minister Arachis said complete different thing.

This is just a couple days ago. Go ahead, Rob.

One thing, the question of talking with Americans

or negotiation with Americans once again would be on the table,

because we have a very bitter experience of talking with Americans.

We negotiated with them last year in last June,

and they attacked us in the middle of negotiations.

And again, this year, they tried to convince us that this time is different.

They promised us that they don't have any intention

to attack us, so, and they wanted to resolve the Iran's nuclear question

peacefully and to find the negotiated solution,

and we finally accepted.

But again, after three rounds of negotiation,

and after the American team in the negotiation,

you know, said itself that we made a big progress,

still they decided to attack us.

So I don't think, you know, talking with Americans anymore

would be, you know, on our agenda anymore.

By the way, his ask, number one, full lifting of sanctions,

which is one of the things they're taught.

That's their number one priority.

Removal of U.S. military presence in the region,

meaning closure of U.S. bases in the Gulf.

That's what their ask is.

No way.

I mean, who's going to be doing that?

Then reparations, which is, yeah,

you got to pay for all this stuff that happens.

Control of revenue from straight of hormones,

ability to change or control shipping flow,

keep the missile program right to nuclear capability,

security guarantees that U.S. want to attack again,

respect recognition of regional power,

acknowledge our role in the Middle East.

That's what they're asking.

They're not going to get that.

And here's the other side of it is that, you know,

by the time this five-day pause in attacks ends,

U.S. will be in a position militarily

because troops would have arrived there.

So, you know, Trump is always very good at kind of

talking one way or having one way

and then using the element of surprise to our advantage.

So, I wonder, is that another repeat of that

if we are, you know, positioning ourselves

buying some time for that?

And then, you know, Brandon said maybe going in

a little bit more, you know,

to use his word a little bit more savage.

I mean, we don't, we really don't know,

but that is a possibility.

So, Rob, do you have the clip of what MBS?

What clip is this here?

Because I want to play what MBS said.

This is one of the Iranian officials

listing their demands for a ceasefire.

This is when?

This was earlier this week.

I believe Monday or Tuesday.

Go ahead.

Until all our damages are recovered,

until all economic sanctions are lifted,

and until we obtain an international legal guarantee

against Iran's, against America's interference

in Iran's affairs, this war will continue.

And I'll explain why such a decision has been made

by our nation, our leader, and our armed forces.

I will state in the interview that

whether our conflict with America is just a 12-day war

and a Ramadan war, or rather a 47-year saga

that we must bring to an end right here and now.

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Okay, so that's that on what he's saying.

Similar request to what I just read.

Okay, MBS comes out.

I have the comments here where he says,

he fears if Trump retreats now,

Saudi Arabia and the rest of the region

will be left to face angry Iran.

I think he told us to, is this the interview wrap or...

I'm looking for the clip.

I found this clip, I'm not sure if it's in them.

Yeah, angry Iran, he told us to New York Times.

Then yesterday, when the president is being interviewed,

they asked the president.

I don't know if you saw that clip wrap.

They're asking him, hey, I just texted it to you, Rob.

I'm sorry, I texted it to myself.

Reporter asks the president,

is MBS encouraging you

to do certain things related to Iran?

And here's what the president had to say.

Go for it.

Saudi Arabia.

What do you hear with Saudi Arabia?

It's here that you've been talking

and that he has been encouraging you to do certain things

related to Iran.

Can you share a little word?

He does.

Yeah, he's a worry.

He's fighting with us.

By the way, Saudi Arabia has been excellent.

And UAE, excellent.

And I will tell you, Qatar, incredible.

Saudi Arabia.

What do you hear with Saudi?

Yeah, so there you have it.

He's responding the way he is.

And Rob, I don't know if there was an interview

with him or not.

It's just like a face-to-face interview.

Barry, you make a good point because, you know,

when you think about this,

is he putting out the 15 points

to give a little bit more time

because he got an update that USS Tripoli needs

four more days, needs five more days

because I got a quote here.

Very weird quote.

And I don't know if I like this quote.

But let me read this quote to you.

From Netanyahu.

Here's one Netanyahu just said.

Okay.

Look what his quote is.

Netanyahu just said, when asked,

how long do you think this is going to last?

He told Fox News, may take some time,

but it's not going to take years.

He vowed to keep striking Iran's enemies

and help topple its regime

after missile attacks he called Iran's

behavior threatening the entire world.

So there's two different problems.

There's the Israel problem.

There's the world problem.

There's the America problem.

The Israel problem is what?

You just attacked these guys.

Guess what time?

With the Israel problem.

They are furious with you right now.

They're not happy with you with what you have going on.

And Israel has to sit there and say,

if we don't finish this off right now,

you think they're going to let the skull?

They're going to come back and take us out.

Then you have a world problem.

Did this even make the world a safer place?

Did it make Gulf states feel better?

Did it make them feel more comfortable?

Are Europeans and NATO allies feeling more comfortable about this?

Then the last one is what?

Trump, the president.

How is this sitting in America?

How is America reacting to this?

Is America sitting there because we just had a Democrat that won in Palm Beach?

Is it Palm Beach?

Emily, I don't know what her last name is.

Emily Gregory.

Emily Gregory, who just won in Palm Beach.

And Democrat flips Florida State House District

that includes Trump's Mar-Lago.

That's his house.

What are they saying?

Tom, you made a good point earlier that,

we've talked about this for the last four or five years.

If there's one thing we've been consistent about,

don't worry about Democrats and Republicans,

who runs America's independence.

That's who runs American elections.

If independence are kind of going like this,

it's like, hey, it's not only shunned.

We're not fully with this.

Your base may be with you.

This may be with you.

This may be with you.

But us independence were kind of leaning this way.

Do you see that pattern kind of happening, Tom?

Yeah, this is a flip of a district.

This was a Republican.

This was a GOP district.

And now Gregory has won it, the special election.

And so now you look at it and say, okay,

what does this say?

Like, come 100 votes by the way.

And the Boca guy won by like 1314 votes.

And then under audit, it went down to three votes

and even one vote in Boca.

So, yeah, that was debated back and forth

right on the edge of a knife.

So, what this says is that the independence in Florida

are basically not saying, hey, overnight, I became liberal.

But what they're saying is, I don't like what's going on

and this is why I'm leaning.

And it doesn't take much to move that,

especially in the lavender districts.

Miami, Broward County is blue.

Miami is blue, but lighter blue than it's been.

And it goes lavender certain times.

And sorry, I just wanted to say the point that Pat made

is very true, is that the America problem

has this issue in a, by the way,

there's just a canary in the coal mine

for the midterm elections as well.

And that's the bigger issue that has to be contemplated.

So, the public opinion right now does not favor

what's going on for the most part.

Maybe they're looking at a short term.

Maybe they're feeling what's going on with gasoline prices.

And they just don't have a distaste for it.

I don't know if they're thinking about the bigger picture.

Like you had mentioned, this is an opportunity

for a bigger picture here.

But it has to be balanced as far as, you know,

what are you willing to sacrifice for?

It's a really tough situation to be in.

There's not really a narrative either.

Like normally you have a narrative behind a war of like,

oh, we have to do this because of this reason.

Like 9-11, it was revenge.

Sometimes there's an imminent threat.

But they don't really have like a narrative

to capture that tolerance.

So, I think that's part of it, too.

Got it. Rob, what is this?

This is the president yesterday in the Oval Office.

He talks about receiving a gift from Iran

and it shows that the United States

is now dealing with the right people in the regime.

Let's hear it.

Make a deal.

They did something yesterday that was amazing, actually.

They gave us a present.

And the president arrived today.

It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money.

And I'm not going to tell you what that present is.

But it was a very significant prize.

And they gave it to us.

And they said they were going to give it.

So that meant one thing to me would deal with the right people.

Is that nuclear related?

No, it wasn't nuclear related.

It was oil and gas related.

And it was a very nice thing they did.

But what it showed me is that we're dealing with the right people.

Because, you know, you don't know, because the leadership

was killed.

All gone.

Come any, all gone.

As the expression goes, the past Supreme Leader.

And then the new Supreme Leader was racked up.

At a minimum, racked up pretty good.

And everyone else was gone.

And then many of the people in the third tier are gone.

But we're dealing with a group of people that I think

had turned out.

And the president, the gift they made to us

was very significant.

And they said they were going to do it.

And it happened.

And they're the only ones that could have done it.

So much fog of war right now.

Like you're hearing everything to sit there and say,

what is really going on?

What is really being said?

Is politics being played?

Who's he talking to?

Is it games?

Is it not games?

Or is the other side sitting and saying,

what the hell is he talking about?

We didn't give you anything.

There's so much that's going on right now.

But Pat, you think about it.

Wouldn't that be like the perfect scenario for the U.S.

If the regime in kind of like safe face is there.

But those who are in charge of the regime are not as radical.

I don't know if that's a possibility.

Oh, no way.

No, no, no.

Okay, so let me ask you.

How long...

If you spend 10 years with Lucky Luciano.

Okay.

How long do you need to spend every second of the day

with Lucky to become like Lucky?

How long?

What do you think the timeline is?

How long do you need to spend with the cartel from Mexico?

Give me one the heavy weights cartels of Mexico?

Name any one of them?

Choppo.

How long do I need to spend with El Chapo to become El Chapo?

How long do I need to spend with, you know, the Mansons?

How long do I need to spend with these guys to become them?

What do you think that timeline is?

Not long.

What do you think that...

Honestly, it's a very good question because how long do you think that is?

Three months, six months, twelve months, two years, three years?

Not long.

No, not long at all.

We have a case tonight.

What would you say?

I think it is.

I think it is, like a thousand hours.

You think it's a thousand hours?

Back in the day.

I think it's like a thousand hours.

But I think it's...

You know, if you're going into it and you're manipulateable, you know, three weeks, I mean,

we saw what happened in history when petty Hearst was kidnapped.

Uh-huh.

And then she basically went from...

They say, psychologically, she went from Stockholm Syndrome where you kinda start to lean

lean with the feelings of your captors

to actually participating

with the Symbi and these Liberation Army,

and a bank hit.

And so how long did that take?

F. Lee Bailey was a lawyer, by the way.

Right, it was, she was only 19 years old,

she was very impressionable.

It was only like 30 days.

Okay, so here's the question.

How many people have spent a thousand plus hours

with the current regime,

Khamenei, Pezashkian, any of those guys

to be true believers?

How many?

They all are.

A couple hundred years ago.

They all have.

The point I'm being is making is that

if the president say we're talking to the right people,

is there some sort of a shift or a tone change?

I have no idea.

I don't know who he's talking to.

Yeah, so is he softening us up

that the regime's not going to change?

No, I think such a fail.

I think it is.

I think, I think, look,

if you, here's what the debate was.

The first debate was, should we or should we not, okay?

So then the president says,

Iranian people, we have your back, okay?

Then Iranian people are becoming bolder to go out there.

So now the president's position is what?

We have your back.

That's a statement being made

from the most powerful person in the world.

And I'm warning you guys, don't hang anybody.

Don't execute.

Right.

But they kept doing it, right?

And they kept it and they're turning off the internet

and we saw the numbers that came up,

31,000, 33,000, 70,000 and they came back and said,

no, no, we didn't kill 30,000 of our people.

We only killed 3,117 of our own people, Rob.

Can you find that clip that where,

that's the clip I was trying to find with Adagotchi

where he said, we didn't kill 31,000 people.

That's incorrect.

We killed only 3,117 of our own people,

as if like he's trying to say, look, we're nice people.

So then from there, everyone's now debating.

Don't do it, do it, do it, don't do it.

Do it, don't do it.

That didn't work out.

And then who makes the decision?

The president, now we're in.

Why are we going in, regime collapse, regime change?

So now at the end, it's a nuclear.

I don't know if I buy the fact that,

so if now it ends and you claim the war is done,

so the position for me would become like this.

If you're talking to BB, hey, listen,

here's what we're doing, what's that?

We're disconnecting from here and we're going out,

which I don't think is happening,

because we just got a report right now,

two hours ago from an insider, good friend,

that Ranger said this Sunday, they're being deployed,

you know, boots on the ground, going out this Sunday,

and they're calling their families,

hey, this is what's going on.

This is a Ranger, this is not somebody, so listen,

we are getting deployed and they're telling us

here's what we're going.

So if he's talking like this that we're negotiating,

but on the back end, we're sending in,

is he trying to deflect and confuse?

Is that Trump's line of doing things?

Because if he doesn't and it comes back

and it was a nuclear negotiation

and you just killed 50 of their family members,

you now, you thought they were angry?

You just increased the temperature of anger

to hold it from level that the world,

so then the people that were, you know,

non-interventionists are going to come out and say what?

I told you you should have gone in the first place.

So he's in a very interesting place, but again,

I voted for him to, you know,

in these situations to trust the decisions he's making,

let's see what they're going to be doing,

because no matter how much we talk about,

guess what we don't have?

We don't have all the information.

We don't have all the intel.

We don't what they're going to be doing.

Rob, did you find that clip?

I'm still looking.

Yeah, it's a clip from two days ago where he says that.

So if you do find it, let me know any thoughts.

And yeah, it's a lot of smoke screens,

but I think that's intentional.

And I mean, if it's going to follow the patterns

of what he's done in the past,

it's something he's just distraction,

distraction, confusion, confused people,

and then boom, out of nowhere,

something swift, fast, and super effective happens.

Where I don't think the triple is going to ultimately

play a role in whatever happens,

because everybody in the world's looking at it,

watching it, saying, okay, it's three days away now,

it's two days away now, it's one day away now.

So I think something different

is going to happen aside from that,

maybe with the car, I don't, but no,

there's no way that we just make a deal with them now,

because that would be a worse situation

than we went into in the first place.

So it gets like a, you know,

it goes from an extremist hostile regime

to a pissed off extremist hostile regime,

like, you know, with oil at a higher price

and with all the infrastructure for oil, halfway damaged.

So, yeah, no, you have to go all the way now.

No half measures.

Come.

Yeah, I hate it because, you know,

I liked that Maduro was in and out.

I liked that I thought we had conducted

a precision bombing up in the hills

and had gotten to some nuclear facilities.

And now there's a little part of me that's like, you know,

here we go again, weapons and mass destruction,

except that now we can see a missile going 4,000 miles.

We see one and you can't have that, right?

Now that you have a missile, it's like North Korea.

When you have a ability to throw a missile this far,

now you just scared to death

on what kind of a bomb can be on top of it.

Now you have trouble.

And so I'm with a, we got to finish this up.

We have to do it, you know,

we see the reports that the USS Tripoli

is there, the USS Boxer,

which we brought up on this podcast first,

has left San Diego a week ago and is in root.

It's still over a week out.

And, you know, at the end of this, this ultimatum,

you know, they got to get it together.

I mean, the Iranians have a decision

to make it the end of the ultimatum

because Trump has got a set of arms

and a set of tactics that are ready.

The FT financial times ran a story

talking about ground invasion of Carg Island.

Everybody is waking up to the fact

that it's waiting a minute.

The Americans are not just talking back and forth here.

This is not a debate like in the American Congress.

The Americans are continuing to move

their military assets around.

And at the end of this saying,

if we don't have an agreement in place,

they're gonna take the next step.

And the next step is gonna be Carg Island.

And by the way, the USS Tripoli is also part

of what's called the, is really called the Iron Dome,

but it's an envelope of protection

to all the minesweepers can clear the rest of the Gulf.

So Trump has next bullets in this gun,

and he's serious.

This is not a long discussion path.

If this is that we talked, I mentioned it earlier,

he's very good at these distractions

where similar to Midnight Hammer,

if that is a similar situation,

well, at least for a short period of time,

it would probably impact oil prices higher.

So it would be a good time to go long oil.

Also would probably hurt bond prices

and for a period of time, or it's stock prices.

So that is something to contemplate,

if you're listening to this from a business perspective,

that's something to contemplate,

but clearly there's a much bigger picture here.

Yeah, let's go to that.

Let's go to that on what happened yesterday.

And we got, again, a lot of other stories

here that we'll go through,

but one of the stories that came out is

$580 million out of oil bed,

just before Trump's announcement,

within seconds before Trump sees fire post,

traders placed extraordinary,

large oil future bets, roughly 5,100 contracts,

on Brent WTI crude oil,

13 million barrels were traded between 1049 to 1050 GMT,

worth well over $500 million.

Some reports cite 6,200 contracts at 580.

In that minute, immediately after Trump announced

that $11.05 GMT, which is like 15 minutes later,

13,000 plus contracts, 13 million barrels,

exchange hands in one minute oil prices

launched on the news Brent crude oil fell 15%

from 12 to 99 and WTI fell from 99 to 86 by comparison

before the war Brent traded at 300,000 contracts a day,

recently daily volume have jumped to 1,000 contracts a day.

Tom, thoughts on the story?

I hate it.

I absolutely hate this because the average American

average investor has no access to this.

Who knew what the president was going to say?

A circle of people in Washington DC,

they know what the president's going to say.

And these contracts are going out

and basically after hour trading,

that some people don't even have access to,

and they put this out here.

This is why we need the insider trading rules

that they won't pass.

I look at this and I've said it before.

It's like, we don't need term limits, we need jail.

It's like, if you're a, there's the old joke.

If a senator is elected, what should he get?

And then the answer is 24 to 36, right?

If you're elected, just discuss me Pat.

Somebody made a bundle of money

knowing what the president was going to say

and they went out and jumped on the contracts,

a person or a group of people.

This is horrible.

Couldn't agree more with you.

It is disgusting.

And the increase in the amount of contracts

in a situation where it's volatile, okay.

But the timing of this certainly stinks.

And I don't think it's somebody.

It's timing.

I think it's a lot of people, Tom, that made money on it.

This is just, it's not fair.

It's not fair to folks like us

who want to try and make investments

based upon the information that's available.

And this is clearly cheating.

Yeah, I mean, even 9-11, the same thing happened.

COVID, the same thing happened.

The constantly when government contracts

are getting given now for Google or Amazon,

they're front running that stuff too.

So I mean, there's just layers and layers

and layers of unfair advantage for the bigger investors

or people in Congress.

They do the payment for water flow thing

where they could see a big line of retail investors

coming trying to invest in something

and then they could cut the line

and go in front of them before that comes in.

So yeah, there's a whole lot of nasty stuff

with the way that stocks are investing

as a structure against the average person.

Let's remember, it kind of got swept under the rug,

but you had three Fed members resign.

Exactly, you had Rosengren, Kaplan and Maven Cloud.

I don't want to speak incorrectly,

but I know Rosengren and Kaplan both resigned

because there was questionable trading that they had.

So, which is crazy.

And these are Fed members at the time.

Yeah, they're the ones deploying those bonds.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

What Boston, Fed President, Rosengren

and Dallas, Fed President Kaplan,

who now works at an investment bank.

But...

Yeah, so was...

Rosengren admitted it.

Vice Chair Richard Clarita.

That's what it is.

Well, it's clouded, so I was right, okay.

There you go, on them resigning.

And by the way, this kind of leads to the story

that came out from Wall Street Journal,

Fed likely hikes next, not cuts.

This is two days ago, market now,

see a rate height more likely than a cut this year.

The Atlanta Fed probability tracker shows Fed

cut odds plummeting from 60% in February to 16% now.

And Fed hikes odds going up from zero to 15%

over the next three months by late March.

Futures imply 85% chance of no move

through June hike odds, 15% cut zero.

Inflation remains above target.

With 2.4% year-over-year, well above the 2%

the core PCE was 2.8% in January

and one standard note, 100% basis point hike

would add about $300 billion annually

in interest on $30 trillion of US debt,

roughly 6% the federal budget.

Barry, what is this story all about?

So a couple of things here,

one Fed funds futures contracts are extraordinarily volatile.

So they are going to move.

So you can't read too much into future months,

but the most recent month tends to be more accurate.

I don't think we're going to see rate hikes.

I mean, this never say never,

but we know that there's going to happen

until Kevin Worsh takes the reins

and he'll preside over the June meeting, right?

The one that we have, I think it's April 29th,

we're not going to have any Fed action.

Yeah, but Kevin Worsh is

a really, really good person to have at the reins.

Remember that Powell was an attorney

now to train economists.

Kevin Worsh has experience at the Fed.

He certainly has the chops for this.

And I believe that he would like to cut

if we have inflation under control.

If this situation is under control

because you need it, the job market,

we are not creating jobs.

GDP is pretty soft when you think about it

and you remove all of the noise.

It's pretty soft GDP.

It's trading just below 2%.

When you look at the final demand component,

which takes out things like inventory and government spend,

when you get the real numbers,

which I like looking at as final demand,

it's just under 2% that's kind of anemic growth

and given the labor market conditions,

the Fed should be in a position to cut.

The fear is inflation.

But inflation's overstated by,

we've talked about this in the past shelter.

It's also probably going to get some relief

as the tariffs come off this summer

and you should start to see that

because they were instituted last summer.

So unlike inflation tariffs,

so one step up and then it flattens out

and then it's a one-time price adjustment.

So I think he'd like to cut.

We don't want Kevin Washington there

as a dove who looks to cut all the time.

I wish Powell would have been hiking rates

back in 2021 and 2022.

So you want to Fed share that doesn't look in the rear view mirror

as they're driving down the freeway

like we'd seen with your own Powell.

You want somebody that could look through the front windshield

and look through these.

I thought Christopher Waller would have been a great Fed share

if you hear him speaking oftentimes,

talks about looking forward.

I think Kevin Worsh will do the same thing.

So I don't think we're going to see a hike.

I think it's likely that we see one or two cuts

by the end of the year. Tom.

I'm on the same page that the cuts.

I'm still in for definitely one cut

and I feel relatively confident it's going to be two.

But if you take a look at the way the news media,

even the business news media,

not the deep business news media,

the popular stuff, the surface stuff.

They react to market forces the same way

they react to last night's score of a baseball game.

Oh, Yankees eight, Boston two Yankees on a roll.

And that's just a headline.

And I think which you have to look at all these statistics,

you have to look at the totality of it.

For instance, this is, you know, inflation stubbornly above 2%.

Yeah, but look where it is really,

and it's overstated, as Barry said.

And take a look at what's really happening with unemployment

and take a look at what's really happening with the economy.

You know what business needs?

A little bit cheaper money to make some investment.

And you know what the US fricking government needs?

A little bit cheaper money when we refile this debt,

which is coming up.

So this is, I don't want a knee jerk reaction,

just dropped up, dropped up, dropped.

Because Trump says, you know, take him down to one,

take him down to one.

No, no, no, no, no, no.

I'm not on that page at all.

And I am definitely not on the page of that that,

that Trump becomes the de facto head of the Fed

where he decides what he wants and then just forces it.

I think what we've got coming in versus a really good person.

And I think he's strong, if he's got an even hand.

And I see these, these headlines.

Why the next Fed rate move could be a hike?

It's because they're looking at the last three little things

that happened like the score of last night's baseball game.

I'd like to underscore, he's, first of all, great points.

And one of the things that people look at when they see

the economy and they say, well, you know what?

The labor market is strong is they misread

the initial jobless claims numbers.

You know, we'll get that tomorrow.

And they have been very, very well-behaved.

So this is people filing for unemployment benefits

as you guys know for the first time.

And those numbers have been extraordinarily low and consistent.

I think that people that are looking at that,

and they watch people on CNBC talk about it

and other economists and even publications.

I think they miss the point.

I think that their thinking is pre-pandemic thinking.

I mean, think about it from a logical perspective.

Meeting income in the US is $87,000 for a household.

So let's just say somebody's making $80,000 or $90,000.

You just haven't forbid you just lost your job.

Yes, you could claim unemployment benefits

and collect $300, $400 a week,

but that's not going to make ends meet.

But what do you have today?

You have gig economy.

I could do Instacard, I could do Uber, I could do Lyft.

And while that might not be something I want to do forever,

that can help me make ends meet.

But that would disqualify me

from going on the ranks of unemployment benefits

because I wouldn't be able to collect it.

So I think that unemployment benefits are artificially low.

And I think because we have a gig economy,

that the number is truly much higher.

When you take a look at how many people

have also fallen off unemployment benefits

because either 26 weeks expired

or the 19 weeks depending on the state that you're in,

those numbers are continuously growing.

And one other thing is job openings, job openings,

are plummeting.

If you take a look at the last three years,

they are absolutely plummeting.

The Jolts report, you could see it on a graph.

It paints the picture.

But even that is incorrect because it's interesting.

You guys probably know this, but the way that job openings

are accounted for is it's not a government number

that comes across the whole country.

It is state by state and they aggregate them.

Again, post-pandemic, you could work from anywhere.

So if I'm an employer and it's a job

that could be work from home,

I'm not going to be limited to one state.

I'll post the same job in several states,

which means that that's going to be counted

multiple times in certain situations.

So I think as bad as the numbers look for job openings,

the true story is it's much worse.

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Yep, and I'll give you a simple chart

and people that are watching can see it.

Rob, I just sent it to you.

Just text to you right here.

Just one click away.

Look at this is Fred, you know,

St. Louis statistics.

This is Fred, which is Federal Reserve Bank in St. Louis.

They put a lot of statistics.

Pat, look at what's happened since the end of COVID

and since COVID peak 2020.

Look at what was happening to the number

of multiple job holders in the United States.

Look at that.

This isn't this isn't how many.

Is that in the thousand?

That's in the thousand.

So it's correct.

Go all the way up 488,000 people right now,

hold multiple jobs that they can count.

And this is a full time and this is people

that have full time employment.

So it's like a subset of subset.

So you have to treat this as a trend line

and look at it across the population.

This is exactly what Barry is talking about.

It's such an unhealthy sign.

I'm gonna play devil's advocate though.

So I actually disagreed with you guys last time we spoke

where you guys were saying that we should cut rates.

I was saying that we should hike rates

because I think that disposable income

is getting hurt because of, you know,

I think inflation's understated if anything

with between housing and food.

But with the oil situation now,

that's why they're talking about hiking rates instead.

But I think they're mysterying that.

Now there's some debate about this.

But typically when oil goes up like this,

it, you know, there's argument that yes

it makes everything else expensive

but also destroys disposable income.

So a lot of things actually go down in price

because people don't have the extra disposable income to buy it.

So I think an argument can be made that maybe you do need

to either keep rates the same or cut rates now that oils this high

because this situation tends to make, you know,

everything deflate because people don't have as much

disposable income so that kind of causes

recessive aspects with the market.

And, you know, when you cut rates,

when the market goes up, when house prices go up,

then the wealth effect happens where people have more money

and they spend more money on goods and services

and that pushes the prices up.

So it's a question of do people need more money

or do things need to be less expensive?

Everybody thinks selfishly.

So what you, you're sounding like a buyer, okay?

And, and maybe Barry and Tom are speaking on behalf

of the owner and the seller, okay?

So as the buyer, what do you want?

You want everything to be discounted.

So your idea, your philosophy.

Fair market value.

It is fair market value but you wanna be able to get

a bit of a discount and maybe, you know,

you may think certain things are overpriced.

Barry may be saying, you know, and Tom may be saying

and speaking like as a president, politician,

guess what the president wants?

The president wants what?

Yeah.

He says, look, I want housing prices to go up.

I don't want housing to go.

You heard me say this six weeks ago.

Is he an owner?

Because not only is he an owner,

but the way the system is set up to get re-elected,

sometimes the right thing to do

won't get you re-elected and hurt you in the midterms.

So you may not be wrong,

but the likelihood of doing what you're proposing

won't happen because there's a midterms coming up

in six or seven months.

It's a good thing to think about the prices coming down.

I don't think that that's a good thing.

Just like people say deflation is worse than inflation.

It's true.

It is.

Nobody wants to buy the bottle.

Think about this though.

Think about if you're waiting for prices to come down.

By the way, you're gonna wait a long time.

If you're waiting for prices to come down

and you win, you're right, prices come down.

Now guess what?

Now you're starting to refill them to go up, aren't you?

Because if they continue to go down,

are you buying at the bottom?

That's a loose thing.

That's what I'm saying.

It's the buyer and the seller's mentality.

Yeah.

So check this out.

That the buyer becomes a seller known.

So here's what you have to be thinking about, Brandon.

Something for you to consider.

Okay, if you're the president, hear me out.

Yeah.

Who should you win over?

Those who want the market and the economy to go up

because they're vested,

because they have invested into property,

because they have invested in equities,

because they've invested into what the market is doing,

or those who are on the sidelines.

Who should you make better policies for?

I get it.

People who own things carry more weight.

I'm more in the business of making sure

I make the climate better for those who have more to lose.

Because those who have more to lose

are taking risks and the others are not.

But the people who own things right now,

like say the boomer, for example,

who own like half a wealth to that.

I'm going to go because I think the day Ramsey's story,

I'm going to come to you first because I want to hear your thoughts

because there are millions of people that do agree with you.

And I want that argument to be made as well.

Barry, I know you're talking a robber about a chart.

Do you want to kind of tell us what the chart is?

Well, I just wanted to show the Jelts report.

That's not this one.

But if you look at this Jelts report,

Fred has a little bit better view of it,

if you have the Fred one.

You'd see that peak there,

and you could just see what has been happening since one time.

Can you explain to us what this is?

So job openings and labor turnover.

It says what we were talking about.

You post a job that's available.

So this is a job opening.

I want to hire you just like you did at the very beginning.

You're hiring, right?

So this is in the thousands just to speak clearly

with everybody that's watching this.

So if I add a thousand to that,

then there's in March of 2022,

there was 12.3 million job openings in a market.

And that's kind of down to about 6.4 million.

If I'm not mistaken,

it's where we should be in the lace report.

Right.

I think there's one more that we're missing on the data points.

Yeah, it's around there.

So 6.5 million.

But as you can see,

and what's happening here, Pat,

is if you contemplate the fact that this does incorporate

what I talked about earlier,

you can post jobs in several states.

The way this data is aggregated,

it's state by state and you add them up.

It's highly likely and very probable

that this is overstated

because there are multiple postings.

You did not have that pre-pandemic.

Oh, so this, okay, I got it.

So, yeah, but how many is that?

So let's just, is that 1%?

That's not 10%.

You know, it's probably,

it's probably, let's say it's 3%.

Because we've been hiring for a long time,

but let's just say,

like right now we'll do job postings for certain jobs

and we're recruiting now from New York market,

from San Francisco, from LA, from Chicago, from Dallas.

So let's just say we are.

Let's say it's 5%.

Yeah, but that's a 500% increase on that one job though.

Okay, so.

It is, but that's 6.5 million job postings.

Take 300,000 out is really 6.2 million.

It's not that big of a difference.

In either case, the fact that it's likely overstated

is just on top of the fact

that you can't ignore the trajectory of where we're going.

So what's the point you're making?

What are you going with that?

The job market has got a lot of weakness.

We've got, I agree.

We've got, I agree.

The creations which have been negative

more times than they have been positive

on the BLS report in the last six months, seven months.

Is that just because of rates though you think?

Cause it looks like that lines are pretty closely

with where rates are, like even going back on that chart.

I know because rates were,

they're at zero until 2022.

I understand that is absolutely correct,

which really underscores the point

that while it's not entirely rate driven,

it does tell you that the Fed really needs

to help this economy by cutting rates

because the labor market is soft.

I mean, but every time the Fed tries to help the economy,

then they end up over-correcting

and making the situation worse.

Because of the real view mirror effect.

Because if they, how many times have we heard them say

we're data dependent?

I agree with you.

But the fact that they are constantly data dependent

and they're looking at data that is either lagging,

older, overstated, they're making the wrong decision.

It's kind of like, I think Alan Greenspan gave this

and the Maestro was at the RR set here.

No, I thought he was a good Fed here.

18 and a half years, we did have a situation,

but over the 18 and a half years,

most of the time he did get it right.

It's not an easy job.

But with Greenspan, what he gave was the analogy of a shower.

And he said, if you go into your shower

and you turn the water all the way hot

because it comes out cold,

then you have to adjust it later, it becomes too hot.

And then if you go the other way,

he said you should probably set it where it's going to be

and be patient.

And I don't think we've seen that from the Fed.

I think they, as you had just said,

over-correct one direction or the other.

Yeah, I can't say it stayed strongly enough.

I think it's the most poisonous toxic horrible thing

in our society that some group of old people

controls the price of money.

Because what socials and recombinums is this

is when a board of people control the price of things.

But the most important thing in our world is money.

So they control the price of money

and they get it wrong every time.

So I think that's one of the biggest problems that we face.

That and the gold standard getting taken out.

You may not be wrong, but it's where we are right now.

Okay, so that decision was made many years ago

before us in 19 or 19 or 19 or 19 or 19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

19 or 19.

Anyways, go on, go on to this.

Let me tell you where I want to go with this

because you almost went there, but you didn't go there.

And that's job market right now.

So I'll read a couple of the headlines

and you see where it's going, business insider,

how tech broke the job market.

All right, business insider yesterday,

employees are taking pay cuts in huge numbers, okay?

Dave Ramsey warns young hopefuls

locked out of housing market corporate America screwed you.

So these messages are coming left and right, right?

What should I be doing?

And I think Rob, let's go with the one of employees

are taking pay cuts in huge numbers.

Let me read this to you and kind of go through it

because when you're seeing a market,

Facebook's claiming they're going to let go of 20%

from 78,000 to losing what, 15,800 people.

These are $370,000 your jobs, high paying jobs.

Where's that job going to?

Is this the conversations of Claude?

Hey, we can do the job of this many people.

I don't need to hire this many people anymore.

Jack Dorsey's tweet of six weeks ago,

he just opened up and said,

this is what I'm going through.

What do you want me to do?

AI developers.

Yes, AI developers.

Now you got developers that are coming in

that as good of a developer, you may be a full stack,

but a lot of them behind closed doors

are just kind of using Claude and others

that I'm doing that they're using

different language learning models.

So they're not even doing what they learn how to do.

They're relying on because they don't even know

they're replacing themselves sometimes

on the way they're working.

It's a very interesting climate right now.

Well, let me read the story to you

and I'm going to come to you guys.

So employees taking pay cuts in huge numbers.

What is this?

Yesterday when we were going through the story,

Humberto kept saying,

we please not talk about that story.

And I said, look, you brought the story up,

so we got to talk about it.

So since losing his job in 2023,

Scott has applied to 1600 jobs,

completed 78 interviews,

and depleted his savings just to stay afloat.

This guy reminds me of the Jubilee guy,

but they're different guys.

The constant rejection has become so unbearable

that he went on anti-depressants.

Now, remember, this is business insider,

so it's a little bit of a woke type of a thing.

So as you're reading this, please brace for impact.

There's emotion that's probably the person that wrote this,

went to a school that's more of a left-leaning

journalistic school.

So Rob, can we find out who wrote this article?

I actually want to know who the author of this article is.

So when I recruited from a staffing company

called with a job offer last December,

he hung up, walked upstairs, told his wife the news,

and cried, it finally happened.

He remembers thinking,

the triumph through, though bittersweet,

the position was a six-month contract as a technician,

two steps down from his previous role as a senior manager,

he'd have no guarantee of work once the contract ends,

and it'd be earning only half what he made before accepting

this is going to set my career back five years.

He told me, I know I'm really good.

I want a chance to prove myself.

We've all heard about how grueling the white collar

job search has become,

but the market is so tough right now that even the people,

landing jobs, often aren't the success stories

that you appear to be,

revalue labs and analytic provider recently looked at the data

that collects from across the internet,

and found that an alarming share of people

are settling for roles that pay less than the ones

they had before,

among all white collar workers who change jobs

at the end of last year,

40% of them took salary cuts of more than 10%

revalue labs analysis showed that's the highest share

in at least a decade.

The share of professionals getting similarly

large raises is also at its lowest level, Tom.

Well, guess what?

We have now come to the other side of the supply chain, right?

This is, this is to me, this is supply and demand.

Now call it AI, call it adjustments,

call it say CEOs are using AI and AI

washing to justify right sizing.

By the way, Meta came out,

remember I called him out pat and I said

that some of those job layoffs were from the Metaverse.

Remember this large, large hole that Facebook dug

and started, when they rebranded Meta,

started pouring billions and billions of dollars in

and analysts were saying,

just how big is that hole for the Metaverse?

You keep pouring billions of dollars into?

Well, guess what?

They came out and said,

well, yeah, some of these layoffs this week,

yeah, there is a good number of them that are Metaverse.

Then he came out and said, how about 1500?

And then there was Reddit responses

from people that claimed to be inside Facebook that said,

yeah, buddy, more like 4,500 to 6,000 of them

were related to Metaverse.

So there's AI washing going on on the layoffs.

What am I getting to?

Well, there is a supply difference happening.

In that article, it also provided statistics

that the number of large percent raises are down.

Oh, that means people aren't having to give raises

to keep people.

Remember you had to pay the bribe during COVID

or lose your best engineer who said,

I'm walking across the street.

I work from home and I can have my dog on my lap

and all these things I can do.

Well, the supply has changed.

And right now, there's fewer job openings,

there's people looking for them,

and now you have a supply issue.

And guess what happens?

Price goes down when supply goes up.

And I think that's what's happening now.

And it's also happening on a regional basis.

Now, is some of it AI maybe?

Is some of it that the economy is taking a pulse right now?

You're looking at the number of jobs that were being made.

It's basically flat for four months.

Even if you go back and you say, oh, the 92,000 job losses,

they're going to revise that down.

Yeah, OK, go back and look at all those.

Let's say we revise it.

It basically says flat.

It doesn't say that we lost half a million jobs

and there's a recession and all this.

It says it's basically flat.

Yeah, certainly it's much more acute in the tech sector,

of course, because as they know, could that branch out?

It potentially could.

But if you look at the numbers from ADP

and you look at the job stares and job switchers,

while the numbers have certainly come down on the switchers,

it's still a premium.

They're still about roughly six and a half percent year

over year versus roughly four and a half percent year

over year on the job stares.

So there's still some premium.

So I think in the tech sector, this is very acute.

But there are probably other sectors

where they are still relatively stable.

Brandon.

Yeah, I mean, the situation in 2021-2022 was, wow,

and that was, I mean, anybody reasonable

should have thought that that was unsustainable.

We just had a ton of money pouring into the economy.

We had companies with a 0% interest rates taking out loans.

So they were able to pay a ton of money like that.

So that's why that craziness was happening.

But while I think people that are around my age

in this ballpark are in a tougher situation

than historically speaking, I think

it's still entirely feasible to get whatever you want out of life.

If you're, you know, make sure you're exceptional in some way

or go the extra mile in other ways,

but if you do what everybody else does,

you're going to get what everybody else gets.

So this guy applying a 1,600 jobs on LinkedIn or whatever,

I mean, yeah, like you're blending it with everybody else.

I mean, like, for example, when I came here,

I took like all these crazy drastic measures

that nobody else would have done.

I was like contacting every single person

that worked at the company.

I was like mailing stuff here.

Like all these very creative the way you got the job here.

Yeah. So I mean, I think that that's how people have to think.

I agree.

I agree.

And by the way, look what happened.

You got one job then another job then now you're running it

on the consulting side, which is a complete different thing.

And your background was what, a master's in national security

and a bachelor's in national security, right?

But you had to drive to go get it done.

This is why part, sometimes when I hear stories like this,

when hey, here's what this person's going through

and here's how long it's taking to do this

and here's how long it's taking to do that.

If the people that are in this mindset

that you can't go get, sometimes you have to go and see

what the market wants to pay you today.

Sometimes your market price changes.

Some people come in like, let me tell you,

do you know I used to be with CNN or Fox or MSNBC?

And I'm going to start a podcast and I want you

to pay me $10 million five year contract.

Well, first of all, have you ever done a podcast?

No, you think your fame is going to translate

from CNN to just start a podcast?

Didn't Jake Tapper just recently on CNN?

Was he doing a show?

And they're trying to do it on the podcast said,

because CNN is starting to realize, what's going on?

This is him actually doing this.

This is really his new set.

Wow.

And Rob, this isn't a podcast, right?

This is actual CNN cable TV.

Can you play this for the first 30 seconds?

So you're probably wondering what's going on?

Why we're in my office for the first hour of the lead today.

So it's an experiment.

This is my actual desk where I do my actual work,

not the desk in the studio.

And we thought we would bring you into the space

where me and my team do our actual journalism

and plan the show every day.

So here we are giving it a shot.

You might also be wondering about the decor,

the posters and the Kirchiffs and such on my wall.

Well, the theme is these are all losing presidential campaigns.

And this hobby started 26 years ago

after I covered my very first presidential campaign

in the year 2000.

So you know, a lot of times people are like,

well, I'm going to go from there to this.

And then you look at ranking for some podcasts

are like, how is that guy beating that guy?

How are amateurs beating professionals?

The market is going to tell you exactly how they feel.

Like I'll give you an idea.

Yes, that we're having a conversation.

I think Justin's in the room.

Could have been yes, that he could have been two days ago.

Justin, remember this.

And the conversation was, hey, what do we want to do with the chat?

I said, what do you mean?

He said, man, the chat says this, the chat says that,

the chat says this, what do we do with the chat?

I know Tom reads every one of the chats that comes on.

Right?

He's going through it right now.

So what do you do with the chat, right?

What do you look at the chat?

Well, you know, why don't we shut down the chat?

Why, man, it's brutal sometimes.

I said, no, you sure?

Absolutely.

Why not?

Let him rip.

Why?

That's the difference between mainstream media

and dependent podcasters.

You can, you and I cannot watch, you know,

the news on TV and see what listeners are actually saying.

You just have to accept the fact that that's what the messaging is.

Then you read the commentary.

And by the way, I'll go and I'll look at Instagram or X or YouTube

and I'll see comments sections.

And this is the part that's a very important skill

said that people have to pick up nowadays.

So yesterday, there was a post made and I watched the video

and I went down and I looked at the first account I clicked on,

follows 3,000 people has zero followers.

Follows 992 people has 17 followers.

So I said, you're about, you're about, you're about, this is real.

You're about, you're about, you're about, you're about, this is real.

That effort has to be on you and on top of that.

Here's the other part that's happening right now,

which is a beautiful thing because, you know,

you have to know propaganda.

This is the greatest season to be in a propaganda business.

If you're an enemy, if you want to divide a nation,

if you want to divide a political party,

if you want to divide a family, if you want to divide a team,

if you want to divide a state, if you want to,

if you want to divide anything today,

the greatest propaganda weapon ever has been handed to you

that even the amateur, the guy that wrote the book,

propaganda will look at it and say, my God,

we can really destroy some great states today

because of the propaganda tool that we have, right?

And you'll see all these videos of,

I remember one time one guy says, Pat,

one of our clients was a previous presidential candidate

that got up to 19% I won't say his name.

He said, he was one of our big clients.

I said, what do you mean he was one of our big clients?

He says, come into the room, I go into the room.

I'm not even kidding with you.

Thousands of phones who are all sending tweets,

who are all sending comments, who are all,

I said, so what do you do?

He says, we can take anybody and make the market believe

they are trending more than anything else

and the back end, like what the internet is coming from,

they're able to link it to different places.

So it doesn't show like it's all from one location coming.

So it doesn't even trigger an X or a Facebook

or the old Twitter or YouTube to be able to read this.

Guess what the market's gonna say?

We want the chat, we leave the chat.

A lot of people don't like to do it.

I love it.

I love for the market to go through it

and filter each other out because you gotta be,

you gotta be almost, what's the word Tom?

You gotta be almost, there's a word for it

where when I was on the podcast with Joe

and Joe and I were talking about comments

and Joe says, but Pat, you can't compare us

because we're used to comments.

We're used to what's going on.

The average person's not, right?

I love that the market is speaking to each other

to see what's gonna be happening.

The market right now when they're talking about jobs,

people are saying it's a scary time for jobs.

Forget about the article we're reading.

The market is saying, Pat, I'm afraid,

at 22 students year, two weeks ago,

top ambassadors of this great school, 4.85 GPA,

going, getting accepted into big schools.

We're talking about schools like I, V league

and some of these other, and I'm talking to these guys

and we're talking about career planning, what they do next.

What should we do?

How do we reposition ourselves?

This is not a time to go into,

you have to find a way to compete against everybody else

and even look, I'll go to the Dave Ramsey story.

Dave Ramsey warns young people.

Locked out of housing market, corporate America has screwed you.

Rob, do you have the clip on Dave Ramsey

or if you want to play this clip?

Here's what Dave Ramsey had to say about it.

Go ahead.

This is that corporate America has screwed you.

Car debt is at an all time high.

The car companies have now got you signing up

for $1,200 car payments.

Student loan debt is at an all time high.

And this is Gen Z and millennials.

And of course, credit card debt.

Thank you to the big banks is at an all time high.

When you're drowning in personal debt,

you can't afford to buy a freaking house.

And that's what's happened.

We've had these big companies, the car companies,

the banks and Congress with the student loan debt,

screwing these two generations at a record

like never before.

And so what we're finding is we're finding lots of Gen Zers,

lots of millennials able to buy a home

when they fight through and sell the stupid car

and get rid of these debts.

Do you think that that's why there may be not going out there

and buying those first time homes

or looking to other investments?

Well, they're not looking at other investments.

They're broke.

Their disposable income has been eaten up

by those three categories I was talking about.

Again, car debt is out of control.

Our message to Gen Zers.

I think he's talking his book to some degree.

Certainly there is a lot of debt out there we've seen that.

You're thinking he's selling a book right now.

I think he's just talking his book.

His whole thing is he's going to get you out of debt.

That's his whole point.

Of course, sure.

That's a good point.

But he'd make some good points.

And clearly, the evidence is there

that we have seen credit card debt rise rather significantly.

I believe it's up 22% over the past four or five years.

So we have seen a big jump up in credit card debt

in the amount that you're carrying.

So that has a very poor effect on your overall ability

to purchase a home.

But I do believe that what we really need to look at

is on the overall picture.

If I'm looking to purchase a home right now,

my down payment is definitely part of that problem.

Is the down payment I have to come up with the savings.

Also, my psyche is another one because I'm here

and all this negative stuff about the housing market.

And many people don't have the education.

Some people think you need 20% to buy a home.

They don't realize you can buy a home with three and a half

or five percent.

If you ask, I think there was a survey

that was done by Realtor.com about half the individuals

that are asked to buy a home, they think you need 20% down.

So there is an educational gap there

in people entering the housing market.

That said, it's still a challenge to buy a home.

But what Ramsey's also talking about here is that this debt

is something that is pushed upon people.

To some extent, it is you get 100 credit card offers in the mail.

But there also should be some financial education

as well to make good decisions, too.

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