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Patrick Bet-David & Tom Ellsworth are joined by Jeff Snider and Mark Moss as they break down Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz and the potential global oil supply and oil price shock, Bill and Hillary Clinton’s deposition tied to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation and Epstein files, and Paramount’s legal victory over Warner Bros. in the escalating Hollywood media battle.
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ABOUT US:
Patrick Bet-David is the founder and CEO of Valuetainment Media. He is the author of the #1 Wall Street Journal Bestseller “Your Next Five Moves” (Simon & Schuster) and a father of 2 boys and 2 girls. He currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida.
Did you ever think you would make it?
I feel I'm supposed to say it's a sweet victory.
You know this lies me for me.
I don't. What's your aim?
The future looks bright.
And Jacob is better than anything I ever saw.
It's right here.
You are a one-of-one?
I send you right there.
I think I'm going to set this up.
So risk averse.
Okay.
Another great business show with brilliant minds in the house,
Mark Moss, Snyder and Ellsworth,
all in the house.
Gentlemen, great to have you back.
There's a lot that's going on right now.
Obviously, we will cover some business stories,
probably on the second half of it.
But anything and everything that's going on in Iran right now
is tied back to business.
You got the Iranian commander threatening to fire,
to set fire to ships crossing straight up her moods,
which is going to directly impact oil prices.
We're going to look at oil prices.
I'm curious to know where you guys think it's going to be going to.
There's a story that came out from Bloomberg talking about Iran's
missile math, $20,000 drones to take out $4 million Patriots.
There's a guy that made a clip making a prediction.
I think two years ago, I don't know if you saw this Asian guy
who said, you know, Trump's going to win in November.
U.S. is going to go to war with Iran,
and U.S. is going to lose to Iran.
Okay.
He made these three claims.
So he got two of them right.
Listen, even if he gets two out of three right,
that's 66 percent, but some are saying,
what are they talking about?
Is it the fact that they produce smaller drones
like Ukraine that against Russia?
Maybe we'll talk about that.
Qatar shot down two Iranian planes.
Can you imagine Qatar that's supposed to be
somewhat of a neutral ally is now shooting down Iranian planes?
And in China, there's some stories with China.
I know Jeff and Mark were talking about some thoughts about China.
China could face some real problems
within two months of straight-of-war moves.
Crisis drags on, because I think if I'm not mistaken,
70 percent of their crude oil, I believe, comes from Iran.
So their relying comes from that entire area, specifically Iran.
So they have to make sure Iran's going to be okay.
What that means we don't know.
We'll China get involved.
Will they not get involved?
There's some stories online that are spreading about what is going on,
what is not going on.
And then I want to show you a clip from BBC that shows
how many of these videos that are AI-driven videos
are confusing a crap out of people.
And people don't know who to believe.
One of them got 17 million views.
Oh my god, look what's going on.
So we'll show you some of these clips from BBC,
which BBC we know is not a pro-Trump organization.
BBC is probably getting sued if they haven't already
by Trump for what they did with that documentary
where they kind of changed and cut apart of the clip.
And Trump obliterates Iran's navy by sinking 11 ships
including the mothership as Tehran's brazen lies
are exposed at the same time,
while all this stuff is going on a massive crisis, folks.
I'm talking devastating crisis happened to the CEO of McDonald's.
This guy shows to eat this big burger
in a bite smaller than my four-year-old daughter.
And Burger King's marketing team said,
Mr. CEO, Burger King, do me a favor.
And by the way, I used to work at Burger King.
So I don't know which one you worked at fast food.
I worked at BK, did you guys work at any of these places?
I don't know, no fast food.
He went and took a big bite of their double-wap
or whatever it was.
And everyone's taking shots at McDonald's, right?
And Mr. CEO, Chris Kiepschinski,
if you're going to take a bite, take a real bite, buddy.
Maybe redo the video and take a real bite of it.
But anyways, that's called marketing and they capitalize.
Miami Heat, apparently their phones are ringing off the hook
as California billionaires.
Look to drop nine figures on homes in 305.
I believe if I'm not mistaken,
Mark Zuckerberg-Ropp, if I'm not mistaken,
just closed on his 175 million dollar home,
smaller to place he got,
but 175 million, 170 million dollar home in Miami.
And they're moving here, guys.
It's just happening.
There's not much you can do about it right now.
They're moving down here.
Pete Hexett, Snapside Reporter,
impressed on Trump's four-week Iran War timeline.
Marco Rubio, there's Clipsing.
Well, you said this.
Well, you said that with Israel.
Well, you said, what do you really mean?
What really happened?
Maybe we'll react to that as well.
And then Jamie Dimon, typically Jamie Dimon,
you never know how Jamie's going to react.
Jamie Dimon, there could be a, you know,
rain coming, Elmenio.
This is the end of times.
Be careful with your assets.
But then there's a war going on with Iran.
And Jamie Dimon says, this is not a big deal.
Iran conflict won't be major inflationary hit.
You got to love his poise when it's a real massive crisis.
And then when it's something else, he'll,
he'll bring up the fear point.
Iran War prediction market bets draw heat.
And saying that this is legal,
I think how she had to do something
with the Khamenei as well as both of them,
I think they have to do it.
But we'll talk about that story.
Bill Clinton was shown footage
and asked questions about the massage
from the girls he got and he answered.
And when they said Hillary Clinton really got angry,
apparently she really did get angry inside when question
on a few things.
And I'm surprised because Hillary seems
like this major sweetheart.
I can't see her getting angry.
But apparently the rumors are true.
She has a temper.
And we got to give credit to her.
Talk time out of it.
That's right.
That's right.
And not believe.
And a Michael sailor is probably the biggest gambler
in the world to be able to do what he does and keep his poise.
This guy's either going to end up being a trillionaire
or he's going to be a barista working at Starbucks
one of these days.
He wants one of those two.
He's not going for the middle.
He has to wear extra bag pants.
Yeah, that's right.
But listen, he's got brass.
And then maybe we'll talk about some of the stuff
that's going on with Paramount.
And the new leader in Iran,
with Ayatollah Khamenei's son emergence
has a leading choice to be a successor.
Some people are saying his days are numbered.
At any time, something could happen to this man.
Okay.
With that being said, I said we get right into it, guys.
Number one is Iran's commander threatens to set fire
to ships crossing straight of Hormuz.
Okay.
So what are they talking about here?
And how much of an impact will this have on the economy?
As Iranian commander threatened,
an Iranian commander threatened Monday.
Rob, do you have a clip of this?
I do.
It's in Farsi, just so you know.
But does the show translation in English or no?
I don't believe so.
Okay.
Then Rob, unless if you're going to translate it to us,
we can't go to it, Rob.
So I appreciate your effort.
Threaten Monday to attack any ship crossing
the straight of Hormuz in a move that could choke
about a fifth of global oil supplies
that will send oil prices soaring.
The straight of Hormuz is closed.
If anyone tries to pass,
the heroes of the revolutionary guard
and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze.
Ibrahim Jabari, a senior advisor.
The guards commander in chief said in remarks
carried by state media.
The waterway is the world's most important oil route
connecting the Gulf.
Biggest oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq,
Iran Qatar, UAE.
One way for Iran to block it is to lay minds.
But there hasn't been any such moves.
So far, the reason why this matters so much
is because of one country which we're going to get to.
China's the biggest buyer of crude oil from Iran,
80 to 90 percent of it.
If they shut down a straight of Hormuz,
this is 20 million barrels a day,
1.2, 1.3 billion hours a day,
20 percent of the world's oil supply.
Jeff, how concerned are you about this
or is this just a bunch of tough talk?
No, there's definitely a reason to be concerned.
But you've got to realize this is a rant-only weapon.
The only thing they have left is the price of oil
in the leverage that they have over China.
Nothing else.
They really don't...
Not even drone.
No, drones are a little bit of a nuisance annoyance here.
But what they really have,
the only pressure point that they can really use
is the straight of Hormuz,
close the gap or close the away.
Send oil prices higher,
put a fresh China on...
You've got to help us out here, man.
We're really stuck here.
It's really the only thing that they have.
And the Trump administration knew that,
which is why Israel went after the regime,
the Trump administration went after
Iranian capabilities to do this.
That's why Trump keeps talking about, you know,
we sent their navy to the bottom of the sea.
That's why there was news earlier.
I mean, we were just talking about this.
It just broke.
Apparently, something off a Sri Lanka,
a Sanka Iranian warship that was over in Sri Lanka.
That is another...
It's another part of the Trump administration's strategy
to counter the only leverage that the Iranians have.
Your threat is to get the price of oil to go up,
by closing the straight of Hormuz,
we're going to make sure that you can't do that.
So the entire US War effort,
or the vast majority that right now,
is to counter that one threat,
because that's really the only threat that the Iranians have.
Yeah, and this is the story we're talking about earlier.
US submarine sinks the Iranian warship off Sri Lanka,
killing at least 80 and leaving dozens more injured.
Tom, what are your thoughts on this?
Well, this is the coast of India,
literally one quarter of the world away.
You have to go from the Middle East,
all as people look at me,
all over here to India,
and then you go off the side of India,
and there you have it.
Why does this matter, though?
Why does it matter?
Well, what it matters, it means...
Can you pull up the matrop?
Just to look at the map of what this location would be exactly...
Yeah.
While we're putting this up,
why would an Iranian warship be off the coast of Sri Lanka?
To escort oil tankers,
to be a patrol in the area,
to be there at certain time.
Now, if you zoom out on this,
you're going to see there's a channel there at India.
Keep going.
Now, Middle East is way over there.
So you have to go all the way down here.
So the fighting is way up here,
and you have the Iranian warship,
and now take a look where you go.
You're not far.
You go down, and now you end up finally at China.
You have the side grab.
You have the side.
You have the side.
You have energy.
Yeah.
You're putting a military patrol navy boat there, Pat.
Could help passage of the oil you're trying to send over to China.
Well, menace it, right?
Huh?
You could menace any...
Or you could menace anybody else that's in the area.
Instead, the US warship,
off the coast of India,
Padoop, you know,
and you sink the ship.
And what's interesting,
what's related to this?
West Texas Center Media is down a dollar today.
It's holding steady.
That's the oil when Trump said drill, baby drill.
That's domestic oil holding steady.
74.05.
See there?
Down 51%.
So it was down to dollar and early trading.
Now it's...
0.51%.
There it is.
Yeah.
And so guess what?
Our oil over here is staying steady.
So inflationary response, big response.
Oil is a global market,
and there's a lot of different types of oil,
as we know, the heavy crude from Venezuela.
But the oil market is staying stable.
And to Jeff's point,
that's the only card they have.
They're not playing at a table
where all the world is sitting there with a hand.
Right.
They're only playing with China and others.
60% of the natural gas that goes to Europe
comes from us, the United States.
So it's become a much more balanced energy market.
Yeah.
Because now that becomes sort of your sixth fleet.
If you think of the five branches of the military,
your sixth fleet is energy independence
and ability to be an exporter on the world stage.
So they're saying this is the first time a US submarine
shot down an enemy ship since World War II.
So this hasn't happened for quite some time.
And what it shows is that again, this is a message.
We are taking this threat very seriously.
So the reason why oil prices are down
is because the oil market is saying the US
is going to do everything it can to make sure that there's
a worst case scenario.
So they are optimistic.
So that is a form of showing confidence
in the fact that the White House is going to get it.
We're sinking Iranian ships over in India.
That's how that's how serious we're taking this.
We are taking this so seriously.
We will take that threat to the end.
And by the way, Rubio said it was going to get.
Is this heck to talking about it?
And Mark, I'm coming to you right after.
Yes, he said it right at the end of that speech.
Let me hear this and I'm going to Mark.
Go forward.
They're navy not a factor.
Pick your adjective.
It is no more.
In fact, yesterday in the Indian Ocean.
And we'll play it on the screen there.
An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship
that thought it was safe in international waters.
Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo, quiet death.
The first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo
since World War II.
And go.
Like in that war, back when we were still the war department,
we are fighting to win.
Mark, thoughts.
Yeah, I mean, this is high stakes poker.
It's not even poker.
I mean, this is real life.
This is war.
There's a lot that hangs in the bounds.
Number one, I think about what he just said there in the stakes.
I mean, sinking a ship, right, hasn't been done since World War II.
You look at what Trump said on true social about the Straits.
And he said, hey, we're going to back the ships.
We'll put the insurance up, which is a whole different topic.
But we will not allow the Straits to be closed.
That's like that's that's strong words.
So so they've they've put the line in the sand, so to speak.
But I think it's really interesting.
And I think about this poker chip that he's trying to play here.
Because as the point that you made Patrick,
China is the one that suffers the most if this oil doesn't flow to them.
So the US is sort of insulated because we're the number one producer of oil in the world.
We've got Venezuela coming online that output is doubled down there.
And we could almost just, hey, let the let that pain be felt by China.
And maybe they could influence Iran a little bit in some of these negotiations.
But if we're going to open up the Straits and keep the oil flowing,
China doesn't suffer, then whose side are they really on?
Where's that pain? It's interesting.
I think also, you know, to the point that he said,
we're not going to allow them to slow this down.
It also shows why there's a war in Iran in the first place.
Because all they constantly do is threaten global markets.
And Jeff and I were talking earlier before we came up here where Trump wants to make a deal.
Most of the Middle East Saudi Arabia, the UAE, they just want to make a deal.
They're just business people.
But Iran constantly wants to threaten global markets by shutting down the Straits.
You can't have that. You can't ever have peace.
And so I think that's what's at stake here.
And I think it's a bold move.
If a US ship goes down over it, then it's World War III.
Yeah. If you look over there right before this started,
the Saudis met with Iran and gave them limited assurances for certain situations.
Then Iran starts lobbying semi-accurate missiles, low-grade payloads,
over onto these Arab states.
And now the smaller Arab states are saying, what the hell are you doing?
Yeah.
And you've actually hit with a drone, one of the iconic hotels that's supposed to be bringing the West to the Middle East.
It's safe to do business here, vacation here from Europe, you know what we're talking about, right? Doha.
And so they're like, what the hell are you doing?
So now the Saudis are backing the small Arab states now after giving assurances.
So frequently there's people that are no longer at the card table.
There's very few people at the card table that Iran.
And I'd like to know how they're going to keep the straits closed for an extended period of time.
And I'll tell you why.
On February 28th, you had American B2 Spirit.
We only have 20 of these aircraft.
It's supersonic, it's lethal, and it flies in areas where there's an extreme danger because it's fully stealth.
On March 2nd, they were reporting that B1 Lancers were now flying deep into Iran,
deeper than we had flown past since 2003.
Now, why do you fly that?
It's not as stealth, but it is supersonic and has a big payload.
If the B1s are flying, it means you've degraded the defense systems on the ground that are surface to air.
So, okay.
And then yesterday, March 3rd, we're hearing that B52s.
It's a 50, it's a 50-year-old aircraft.
It's a 70-year-old.
It's over 50 years old, Pat.
And it has the radar signature of a barn door.
And you can hear it before you can see it.
So, if the B52s are flying, you know what that means?
The skies are safe.
So, I'd like to know how and how long is Iran going to keep the straight closed,
given what we're seeing with American air superiority right now,
and what has been cleared out, and what's happened to the Navy.
Exactly what are you using to keep the straight closed?
That was yesterday.
Yesterday was Iran's, they played their card.
The card isn't necessarily a military.
It's the threat that we're going to set some tankers on fire.
Any tankers that flow through the straight or former
was we're going to hit it with a drone.
The insurance carriers are going to drop anybody who tries to go through.
Lloyd's put a 72-hour suspension.
Right, and then there was news that other insurance carriers...
Trump said, wait a minute, I don't care about that.
So, Iran played their card.
Their card was we're going to close the straights of hormones
with asymmetric warfare and just a threat of it.
What Trump did, again, they had this ready.
They knew this was going to be an eventualist.
So, Trump at 12 was at 12.15 pm as oil prices were skyrocketing
because of the lack of insurance.
You're in international prices.
Right, so oil prices are skyrocketing.
Trump comes out and says, you know what?
If insurance carriers are not going to get right insurance
on tankers going through hormones, we'll do it.
The US government using, I forget the name of the program.
Can you imagine the boldness and the confidence to say that?
We'll underwrite it.
Don't worry about it.
We got it. Why?
Only way you underwrite is why.
Because you know what you're going to do.
And you're controlling the air.
That's unbelievable to be able to sit.
Where you were going, if you want to finish your thought
and then I'm going to show the clip, go ahead and finish your thought.
The thought is that Trump administration understands their role here
is to guarantee that this is going to work,
that they can continue to keep the straighter for moves open.
We don't have to worry about the fallout,
which is all you ever heard about attacking Iran
with, they're going to straight through.
They're going to close the straights.
Oil prices are going to go to $500 a barrel.
But Joe, again, what I was saying earlier about,
but China suffers the most.
So why would Trump want to keep the oil flowing,
instead of putting some pressure on China
to help them in this situation?
You remember he's meeting with them.
I think they have an meeting sometime this week,
is it this week or next week?
It's also, you're putting pressure on China,
but also at the same time you're not directly harming China.
Right.
You're not directly, but I'm saying by guaranteeing
you're sort of helping China.
So he could say, hey, we got plenty of oil.
We don't need, go ahead and shut it down.
There's two things.
So the consequences you have two things in my opinion.
One is, if this is a prolonged war,
which Iran can do, like it's a negotiation.
The other side's like, I got time.
Me too.
Let's go.
Say the other guy only has six months left.
I got 22 months left.
By the fifth month he's panicking.
Then he says, hey, let's do a deal.
All right, let's do a deal.
I think if he, if this drags on,
if you got China or American voters and midterms,
he's going to go here.
He's going to choose this one.
So to me, I don't think they want a prolonged war,
although while this has taken place,
you guys saw what JD said yesterday.
He says, look.
He can go months.
This can be a six month war.
This can be a 12 month war.
This can be the president has the ability
to go as long as they want.
And then hexet was being pushed on.
You guys said this is going to be four weeks.
This is going to be four weeks of all this.
And can you go to that ramp?
Is this the one about the four weeks?
Yes, sir.
Where he jumps in?
Yep.
Okay, go forward.
About four weeks.
It's the typical NBC sort of got you a type question.
President Trump has all the latitude in the world
to talk about how long it may or may not take four weeks.
Two weeks, six weeks.
It could move up.
It could move back.
And we're going to execute at his command
the objectives we've set out to achieve.
And what he has shown ability to do that other presidents
can't quite seem to have the aperture to do.
Well, I mean, Joe Biden didn't even know what he was doing.
I used to look for opportunities and off ramps and escalations
for the United States.
The creates new opportunities to execute what we need
on our own timeline.
So you can play games about four weeks, five weeks.
He has all the latitude and I'm glad he does
because there's no better communicator than our president
expressing those things to the daily mail.
I've been in meetings with the president for the last two
and a half days.
We know exactly where his head space is and he will communicate
as he should exactly what he would like.
And we will follow those orders.
And I think everything he said on that is right down the middle.
There you go.
So the concern becomes how long it goes.
They argue there's a part of me that says they have to say,
we'll go three months, six months, 12 months.
I think they're only talking to, they're talking to two people
when they say that.
They're talking to Iran and they're talking to China.
Yep.
I don't think they're talking to the voters.
They know the voters are going to get angry on Twitter,
on YouTube, on X and all that.
I cannot believe this is going to be another Iraq.
They're like, that's noise.
We'll handle you, you know, folks and media
that are going to bitch and moan all this, my mindset
on what they're thinking.
Yeah.
But they're like, let us make Iran and China think we can go a minute.
Now watch this story about US sinking Iranian,
and 11 Iranian Navy ships.
Rob, is this the story?
Yes, sir.
Go for it.
Now stands at six.
US Central Command shared this video as well
of an Iranian ship being absolutely obliterated.
The US has sunk 11 Iranian ships.
Defense officials tell Fox Iran only has small boats left,
but still could mine the straight of Hormuz.
Iran says it's closed.
The US says it isn't.
Meanwhile, three American fighter jets got shot down accidentally
by Kuwaiti air defense today.
All six American pilots are okay.
The incident is under investigation.
Iran also continues firing on American bases all across the region.
The smoke you see here, though, Sean,
is rising from the US Embassy in Kuwait today.
Also tonight, the US Embassy in Saudi Arabia got hit by two
Iranian Shahid drones.
Thankfully, nobody was injured as Iran not only targets
civilian infrastructure, but now also oil and gas infrastructure, Sean.
Yeah, send it back to you.
Tom, if you want to give some thoughts on what happened with Kuwaiti.
The Kuwaiti thing is really annoying.
Let me remind everybody that Iraq invaded Kuwait
and basically pillaged it of all resources.
And I'm Hussein did.
And who came over there was the USA and George Bush senior
to re-liberate Kuwait.
Say what you will about the ancillary activity,
but we went over and liberated Kuwait after that.
And so the Kuwaitis, carelessly, remember,
if we're flying over Kuwait,
we are now flying back toward the Gulf area
away from the engaged conflict.
So you're coming back, you're empty,
you've dropped your payload, which is bombs.
You're coming back in and you're not expecting radar signature
to be coming over Kuwait, which is supposed to be a friendly place
while you go back to the carrier or the base.
And the clumsy Kuwaitis shoot down through it.
Praise God, our six pilots are okay.
But come on, guys, we saved your ass.
You got to be a little more careful.
So how do you do that, though?
How do you...
You're just...
You're not training them to say, guys, what are you doing?
This was...
By the way, do you have the clip of one of the pilots being approached?
There's like, no, no, no.
I'm American.
I'm American.
Have you guys seen this clip?
The people did back off, but it was an interesting scene
to say, how do you make a mistake like that?
You can't thank God, those guys, nothing happened to him.
Rob, is that it?
Yes, sir.
Go for it.
You're fine?
Really?
You need something to help you?
No problem.
You won't save.
You won't save.
You won't save.
Everything good?
No problem.
Thank you for helping us.
Everything horrible.
Is this the female pilot?
Ooh.
I think that's the female.
Is that not amazing?
Can we give her credit?
What's her name, Rob?
What is her name?
I mean, we got to recognize people like this.
What if she's breaking amazing...
Did you see how poised she was?
Hey, let me explain to you guys.
Think about the worst thing that happened to you last 12 months.
Imagine you're on a jet.
You're in enemy territory.
They shoot you down accidentally.
You land and you're smiling.
Hey, no, I'm good.
Can I get some coffee?
What an attitude to have.
What is her name, Rob?
I don't know if they've released her name.
Wow.
I mean, whoever you are, hey, thank you for your service.
What an honor to have women like this that are this tough,
that are willing to serve.
Great example.
And...
And restraint.
She's carrying a 9-millimeter with two or three magazines.
Then do anything with it to come out.
So let me go to another part.
Let me go to another part about what we're seeing.
Because one of the clips that is going viral on X.
And I'm curious to get all your thoughts is Marco Rubio.
And to comment some of the media members are asking the two clips, Rob.
The one that shows him saying,
do you know what you're not talking about?
Hey, is this because of Netanyahu?
Is this because of Israel?
And then, you know, they're both on the same...
What I'm trying to say is like they're on the same page, Rob.
Okay.
So if this is one of them,
let me see if this is one of them.
No, Rob.
This is not one of them.
They're placed refused.
So listen, you can play this clip.
You can play this clip.
Because Rubio right now is on fire.
I'm trying to explain to you guys this in simple English.
Okay?
Iran is run by lunatics, religious fanatic lunatics.
They have an ambition to have nuclear weapons.
They intend to develop those nuclear weapons
behind a program of missiles and drones and terrorism
that the world will not be able to touch them for fear of those things.
And this is the weakest they've ever been.
Now is the time to go after them.
The president made the decision to go after them.
Take away their missiles.
Take away their navy.
Take away their drones.
Take away their ability to make those things
so that they can never have a nuclear weapon.
That's why the president made this decision.
It was the right decision.
And the world will be a safer place
when these radical clerics no longer have access to these weapons.
You see how they're using them now.
Imagine how they would use them a year from now.
They had more of these weapons.
So Rubio is front and center right now.
And by the way, yes, two days ago,
when he did the 12-minute message that everybody was talking about,
at the end of it, he says,
if you think this was bad,
way till you see, go to the last 30 seconds of that.
The one you just had right.
I actually have that.
I pulled that separately.
Okay.
Way till you see the hardest part is coming.
Is this it?
Yes, sir.
Go ahead, Rob.
No, not at this time.
I mean, look, we always have people that reach out
from inside of governments.
You don't know if they're authorized to reach out or not.
They're suffering a tremendous amount of damage.
Honestly, again, I'm not going to give away the details
of our tactical efforts,
but the hardest tips are yet to come from the U.S. military.
The next phase will be even more punishing on Iran
than it is right now.
Someone was screaming, how long will it take?
I don't know how long it'll take.
We have objectives.
We will do this as long as it takes to achieve those objectives.
And we will achieve those objectives.
The world will be a safer place
when we're done with this operation.
Yeah, that's crazy when you're hearing that.
But how are you how are you thinking, Mark?
I'm going to show that clip on which you just showed Rob.
Mark just showed me something about Iranians,
missile stockpile versus U.S. interceptor capacity.
If you can post that, I think Rubio posted that.
Mark, where are you at with what Rubio is doing right now?
Yeah, I mean, what Rubio is talking about
is just a preemptive move to take somebody out
when they're weak.
And what he's talking about is religious fanatics.
And so, you know, Trump wants to make a deal.
Most of the, most of the Middle East wants to make a deal.
The UAE wants to make a deal.
Dubai, obviously Saudi Arabia.
But then we have in Iran these religious fanatics
who don't want to make a deal.
And they're irrational actors.
The problem that he's talking about is
they're the weakest that they've ever been
because of some of the pre strikes that we saw from Israel already.
But even bigger than that, you know,
talks of the enriched uranium 60% already getting close to the 90%.
Way above the 20% threshold they would ever need.
But the chart I was just showing you, Patrick,
is their ability or their production of ballistic missiles.
And it's going up in a parabolic, like hockey-stip type move.
And our ability to intercept those missiles
is not going up at that same rate.
And so, the problem is right now,
we're like, sort of matched.
But they're in the hockey-stick growth
if we can pull that chart up.
Iran is.
Iran is.
And the problem is they're like,
if we don't go now, then every day...
Can you protect that to me?
I'll send it to you.
Yeah, every day we wait.
We get further and further behind.
So it's like, if we see this as a significant threat down in the future,
you know, would we rather get them today
or try to have a much bigger war in the future?
Well, they keep referencing missiles.
I mean, everybody wants to focus on nuclear weapons.
But I hear constantly these missiles, ballistic missiles,
ballistic missiles, ballistic missiles, ballistic missiles.
So that's exactly what the administration is thinking.
It's not necessary about nuclear weapons.
And the other part about the weakness, too,
is the Iranian government is probably
at the weakest it's ever been to, given the uprising.
But are you saying that the longer it goes,
it's worse for U.S.?
Mark, is that what you're saying?
Well, yeah, definitely.
Because, like, what this chart is showing,
I just sent it to you right here,
is that there...
Iranian missile stockpile capacity is going up in a hockey stick,
but our ability to intercept these.
So we talk about this asymmetric warfare,
where they have the cheap drones,
$20,000 drone.
We have to send a $4 million missile at it.
And so the problem there we go.
There's the chart right there.
You can see here we are 2025, 2026.
But look if we wait till 2027 or 2028.
We're way off sides on this.
And so right now we are somewhat evenly matched,
maybe a little bit behind,
based off of this chart right here.
But you could see every year we wait.
It just gets harder and harder and harder.
That's not even counting the enriched uranium that they have.
And so if they do get that uranium from 60% to 90%
or whatever that level has to be,
I mean, then we're really behind.
Tom.
Yeah, you have to look at that.
You're exactly right, Mark.
And so this was the time to do it.
And here's why.
As this stockpile of increasingly lethal,
increasingly accurate missiles for Iran grows up,
now you have to, you cannot checkmate them
in a ground situation and they neutralize your ability
to sanction them and they neutralize your ability
to stop them.
While in the background they're arranging the uranium
and then they become a nuclear power.
And when that, so the missiles here,
creates a checkmate.
And then they're able to become a nuclear power
in the background.
You can't let it happen.
And what Rubio said is we're going after their missiles
and their ability to manufacture them.
So that's why you have all these secondary and tertiary sites
and people say, wait, there's no base there.
There's no base here.
That's armchair quarterbacking by Reuters and BBC
because they don't understand that what's being hit
is manufacturing facilities, Pat.
They're hitting surface-to-air missile locations,
radar locations, actually in order,
radar, surface-to-air,
air strips, aircraft,
then military bases.
And finally, now you get into the manufacturing.
And then you also, you know,
you hit the boat over there by Sri Lanka
to remove the Navy.
But this is the problem.
If those missile stockpiles have been allowed to increase,
they hold the cards and it's harder to get them to stop.
I want to show this.
I want to show this and get your reaction, Jeff.
So shout out to breaking points.
They did a great interview with Professor Jung.
Those guys do a great job.
Crystal and Soggard,
they won the bigger podcast out there in the world.
They interviewed Professor Jung.
This is a prediction he made in 2024
that everybody's talking about right now.
This interview got a few million views.
And everyone's saying, why would he make a prediction like this?
Go ahead, Rob.
So in this class, the semester,
I'm making three big predictions, right?
First is that Trump will win in November.
Second is that.
This is 2024.
The United States will go to war against Iran.
And the third big prediction is that the United States will lose this war,
which will forever change the global order.
So what do you think about what he's saying?
For him to say, why would somebody in 2024 make a prediction?
Does it go back to the stock policy?
Is he talking about, because his argument, I believe,
what he's saying is they're going to use the small little drones
to destroy multi-multimillion out of properties
versus their drones cost $1,000 to make.
Tom, are you concerned as much as what he's saying here?
The professor?
Well, I think many people made those three predictions.
Yeah.
And I think what you're seeing here is a multi-point effort against Iran.
And also, in the midst of this, so US will lose the war in Iran,
who's moving an aircraft carrier to the coast this morning?
France.
Why?
I saw that.
Because if our bases are hit and our assets are hit,
regardless of who started it, we've never invoked the NATO article.
We've never gone to the podium and saying,
we hear by call you to support and respond,
according to the NATO article.
The article is, one attack, all attacked.
And so Europe is very, the NATO players in Europe are very,
very nervous right now, that even though we'll sort of
you and Israel started it, but they're attacking you.
Gosh, don't pull us into this.
So Macron, no friend to Trump's right now,
an ally economically, but certainly not a buddy of Trump's,
but France's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier
to move to the Mediterranean.
And so you're seeing the rest of the world here,
and I think this is well orchestrated.
I don't think point three is going to come true at all,
because I think everybody knew the risk of point three coming true,
and that's what you're seeing here.
I would say that those three predictions were not that hard to make.
And the reason why I say that, number one,
I mean, after we had President Biden here,
and we saw who was running against Trump, Kamala,
I mean, Trump seemed to be a pretty easy pick.
I think the deep state was maybe throwing a little bit into the mix,
but I mean, Trump went in was obvious, number one.
Number two, would he attack Iran?
Well, Hillary Clinton, you saw that video clip surface in 2008.
He said, if I'm elected, I'll attack Iran.
And we understand in his first term,
he put heavy pressure in Iran,
so Obama had given him pallets of money,
and had ease the negotiations on nuclear weapons.
Trump went full court press on them.
Of course, when Biden came in, he pulled all that back again.
So you would realize that if Trump came back in,
the first thing he's going to do is go back after them again.
So I think prediction number two, as far as prediction number three,
what I would say is because during the Ukraine Russia War,
many commentators that I follow were talking constantly about the U.S.
is losing that war against Russia.
We couldn't produce diminishings for Ukraine to fight back against Russia.
And so the world just saw the U.S. lose.
A lot of people said that.
So I'd say those three predictions,
as you said, a lot of people made those predictions.
They weren't that hard to make at that time.
That is losing to Iran even mean.
And so I think what happens, again,
Trump wants to make a deal.
This is going to be negotiated out.
Some deal looks like this morning Iran is already floating the deal out there,
which is why markets are up this morning.
We haven't talked about that.
But I think there's going to be a deal made.
Both sides are going to say they won.
And so his prediction is going to come true.
Oh, Iran won.
Yeah, from what lens?
Got it.
That's definitely the important point, isn't it?
What are we actually talking about here?
What is it the U.S. is actually trying to accomplish?
Right.
When we lose a war, if we don't really know what we're trying to do.
What do you think they're trying to accomplish?
What they're trying to accomplish here is, as I keep saying,
this is Cold War II.
This is bigger than just Iran.
Yeah.
Not that Iran is not a big thing,
but this is bigger than just Iran.
That's the point right there.
We've talked about this before, Pat.
Panama.
Venezuela.
Iran.
Cuba is next.
Greenland.
The Trump administration is executing a strategy.
But they're doing it exactly one by one.
And it has to do with China and countering China.
And by the way, where are the Chinese?
Where are they in all this?
Yeah.
I think the Chinese are stunned.
They are absolutely stunned by the fact that the Trump administration
had the cajonis to do all these things.
And they don't know how to effectively counter it.
Because what is Trump really doing?
He's going to all these Chinese allies and saying,
I'll take you out.
Beijing ain't going to help you.
You're on your own here.
Yeah.
And you brought up the point about NATO and bringing NATO into this.
But Iran has a deal with Russia.
And Russia is supposed to be defending Iran.
So it's going to Venezuela, right?
They're standing down.
I'm busy at the moment.
Yeah.
They're standing down.
And so we're seeing that their potential allies are standing down.
NATO allies will stand up.
And so, yeah, I think Jeff has the bigger picture, right?
I think a lot of people just say Israel, but they don't understand the bigger picture.
Lock down the Western hemisphere.
If you look at the sequence of orders, first close the borders.
Then get the elite, the dangerous criminals out of the U.S.
Secure the homeland number one.
Yep.
Then go after Venezuela, which was a big piece, not just for oil, of course,
but obviously with trendy Agua and all of that that we have potentially there.
Then you move over to Iran.
It's very sequential.
If you look back, right?
We're really in a, also, we're in a technology race with China, right?
So they keep threatening the, the rare earth elements.
And so this is like the bargaining chip.
So Trump wants to cut them off from our high-powered chips.
They want to come back and they want to take away our earth elements,
which, of course, we need.
And as much as we need technology and the race to AI, you need oil at the end of the day.
And China is dependent on the world for oil.
So if we can restrict the oil, we have the biggest bargaining chip.
And now we have a level playing field.
And I think Jeff is right with that.
And by the way, what a great move for them to go take out Venezuela.
Like imagine if they did it the other way around.
Yeah.
So imagine they go Iran first and Venezuela second.
No, let's take out Maduro first.
We have control the oil here.
Now let's go there.
So China wants oil.
You got to come through us.
And if you don't get it through Iran, because I think it's like 80% of the oil that they get from Iran,
puts them in a tough place.
But the part I don't want to show you, because online social media guys are reacting to it.
This was the clip of Rubio that they're saying, look what happened.
The messaging changed within 24 hours.
One is March 3rd.
The other one is March 2nd.
Go ahead, Rob.
And this is Midestep.
That's why we needed to get involved today.
The President said that Iran was going to get...
Yeah, your statement is false.
So that's not what I was asked very specifically.
Are you there yesterday?
Yes, I am.
Okay.
And so the President made the very wise decision.
We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action.
We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces.
And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks,
we would suffer higher casualties and perhaps even higher those killed.
And then we would all be here answering questions about why we knew that and did that.
Yes, sir.
Jeff, how do you react to this?
Yeah, I...
Look, there's more going on here than people keep giving credit for it.
You know, it's...
It's tough to make statements like that to begin with when you're under pressure.
I mean, he's responding to a specific question.
I think you know what Mark and I were talking about.
It's somewhat of a distraction.
This is not really about Israel.
Israel and the US have a strategy that they're developing
and they're a game plan that they're following,
specifically to deal with the Iranian threat.
And the US is using that as leverage in their bigger Cold War strategy
against the counter-China, Russia and the other side.
So, you know, focusing on Israel here and making it seem like we're just following along with Israel
is just missing the point, totally missing the point.
Yeah, and it's interesting you say this because there's an old clip of MBS
being interviewed where she asks some about Khamenei.
Have you guys ever seen this clip?
Here's a clip of MBS being interviewed and she asks and makes a comment.
She says, wait a minute.
Is this really how you view Khamenei?
Look what he says about Khamenei. Go ahead, rap.
It's seen that you called the Ayatollah Khamenei the new Hitler of the Middle East.
You know, shit.
Absolutely.
Why?
Because he wants to expand.
He wants to create his own project in the Middle East, very much like Hitler,
who wanted to expand at the time.
Many countries around the world and in Europe
did not realize how dangerous Hitler was until what happened happened.
I don't want to see the same events happening in the Middle East.
Does Saudi Arabia need nuclear weapons to counter Iran?
Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb.
But without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb,
we will follow suit as soon as possible.
It's seen that you call...
It's crazy when you think about it because Saudi,
pre-79 had a decent relationship with Iran under Muhammad Reza Shah-Pahlevi.
And now, who knows them better?
Who knows Khamenei better?
Who knows the IRGC better?
Social media influencers, mainstream media folks, or MBS?
Who do you think knows them better?
Of course a guy like this does.
So why do you think they're sitting there saying they're not allies?
We're not working with them.
We're not going to...
And by the way, FYI, just so everybody knows.
This is the part that, for someone who said,
well, you don't even know.
It's because of this.
He's bought. He's this.
It's a business deal.
It's that deal.
By the way, if Iran is set free and the sanctions are lifted,
and they can do business with the world,
Saudi takes a hit from business.
Because there's a new competitor in town.
I don't know if you understand what I'm saying.
Now you have a massive oil supplier that can sell to everybody.
You think Saudi wants Iran economically?
So imagine if Iran opens up, it becomes free.
They start building towers.
They start doing concerts.
They start doing events.
People start going there for vacation.
Like they used to in the 70s, way before Dubai.
What does that do to Saudi?
That's a new competitor.
Why would he want the regime to fall?
He wouldn't want the regime to fall.
Yet he still does.
Yet they're still supporting.
Why are they still supporting?
There's a lot of questions that comes up.
When you think about what's going on there.
But what are your thoughts when you see what MBS said about Khamenei?
Survival.
Like you said, I mean, Saudi Arabia doesn't lose everything,
but they lose quite a bit with Iran being a functioning state
and a competitor.
However, survival comes first.
And he understands the threat more than anybody else does,
because he's got to live next door to them.
He's seen it up close and personal.
I mean, we've seen it before.
So it really is a matter of this is just way too frigging dangerous
to just not just sit here and do nothing.
And that chart was absolutely fantastic, by the way,
because it actually does put everything into the right context.
Everybody said we got to do this and we got to do this now,
because if we wait any longer, it gets to the point where action becomes catastrophic.
I think a bigger piece that has to be taken into consideration
is that we, a lot of us, sit here and think about this from a rational mindset.
And so the whole thought during the Cold War, Jeff referenced the Cold War 2.0,
but in the Cold War, it was mutually assured destruction.
It was rational thought.
If you can kill me and I can kill you, then we have a standoff and we have peace.
But that only works with a rational actor.
When you have an ideological actor whose actual goal is to die in war,
they would rather die in war.
And then it changes the whole thing and you have to take that into consideration.
You're so right, because they do not have a constitution or something I want to stand on.
They have a suicide pack with an ideology.
And their ultimate outcome is the destruction of anything that is not aligned with that.
And then ultimately, they believe in this endgame.
And so you look at it, you wait a minute.
You don't really believe in a happily ever after.
Your form of world domination tightens the noose until the Shi'ai question is eventually solved.
Because the Shi'ai question is the last question and that is the last war of Islam.
When everyone else, but remember, it's first the Christians and it's the Jews,
then it's the neutral, then it's the people that stayed even more neutral.
It's like the old poem that was talked about Germany.
These people did something and I did nothing.
Then these people did something.
Finally, at the end, they came from me and I did nothing.
That is exactly the path they're on.
It's a suicide pack with the future.
And then at the very end, what most of us don't know,
the Sunnis and Shi'ai fight the final war to see who wins.
Right?
Which if you want to go back and look at,
that was how many years was that between Iraq and Iran?
The 10-year war wasn't an 80-80.
Yeah.
It's like, why?
So this is such a great point about the rational actor.
So what do you have to do?
You have to defame every part of the rational actor and put them in check.
And the way you put it in check is you somehow have to move the clerics out
and then move others in.
Remember the subway bombings?
The young men that died in those subway bombings were radicalized
to the point of committing suicide by the radical clerics that were north of London.
That is, look at it.
That's the way it works.
That page.
The wonder ones.
I give you that's my denim.
Well, I think two-town is, you know, we were talking about this too a little bit, Mark.
You know, Maduro Venezuelo was pretty easy, relatively easy,
because it was not an ideological state.
It was basically a criminal organization.
You take out the top, everybody's mercenary.
Who am I going to get paid by?
That's done.
The point you're making is.
And they were nearly bankrupt.
They didn't have a modern audience.
They didn't have anybody to pay them anyway.
Iran is different because there was this Israeli, I think it was an intelligence operative.
I can't remember where I saw the clip.
He's talking about, we are not interested in regime change in Iran.
We are interested in collapsing the regime.
Right.
Which is a huge statement.
It's exactly what you're saying.
You can't just change the Ayatollah.
Because the next Ayatollah, like you're talking about, with Camini's son.
He's going to be probably worse than the last one.
You have to collapse the entire regime because you are rooting out an idealist.
What's the difference?
The average person that's asking, Jeff, what do you mean?
It's still a regime change.
What's the difference?
Well, collapsing the regime means taking out the ideology and handing it over to somebody
who's outside of that ideology.
So you can't just get the next guy in line, like in Venezuela, because they're acting irrationally as Marx saying,
because they're a full believer in this Islamic takeover, the Islamic end state.
What I would say, there's a little nuance to that, though, because I feel the Trump administration has been pretty deliberate by saying
we're not going for regime change.
If we get regime change, great, but we're not going for that.
Of course, he's saying, hey, you know, Iranian people will rise up and take your country back and things like that.
But what Trump said is defang the regime.
So, hey, if we get regime change, okay, we get regime change.
But how about we just defang them?
How about we take away their ability to go attack the world and have these nuclear weapons?
And if they stay, they stay.
If they change, they change.
That's not the goal.
The goal is the defanging.
Don't you think deep down though, they're on board with the Israelis?
The way I see it as the partnership here is, the Israelis are going after the regime, trying to collapse the regime.
And the U.S. is, first of all, trying to protect their economic interests, but also supporting Israel by saying, look, you guys take care of the regime.
You know, you target where the clerics are meeting them to pick the next Ayatollah.
We'll take care of all the rest of the stuff so that you guys can do that and we'll do this.
And in the end, if it works, it works really well.
The chart you show is very important.
The reason why the chart is important, that you show with the missiles and the interceptors, Rob, if he can send that to me as well.
So I have it.
The reason why it's important is, if you don't, it's like, you know, it's like when Tom, when you guys sold jammed that for $680 million in 04, right?
And you were there, and you remember the negotiation is like, so why are you paying $684 now?
You said, I don't want to pay a billion next year.
That's right. I don't want to pay a billion next year.
So I'll pay $680 now versus a billion next year.
So if you don't attack now, and this keeps climbing, the longer you delay to do this, eventually you're going to be like, we can't do nothing.
So we have to just tolerate them.
So there's an element of urgency for getting that done now, rather than waiting for what could happen next.
I do want to go to a couple of things and then we can get off the topic and go to a different topic.
Here's what the president was asked about the next president, right?
On what's going to happen with Iran?
There's two clips I want to play.
This is about whoever becomes the next is going to get killed.
And then we'll go what he said about Reza Palabhi.
Go ahead Rob.
That could happen.
We don't want that to happen.
It would probably be the worst you go through this.
And then in five years you realize you put somebody in, it was no better.
So we'd like to see somebody in there that's going to bring it back for the people.
And we'll see what happens with the people.
You know, they have their chance and we've said, don't do it yet.
If you're going to go out and protest, don't do it yet.
It's very dangerous out there.
A lot of bombs are being dropped.
But I would say that would be about the worst.
Do you have someone in mind right now that you've said all the people you do have in mind have been taken out?
Well, most of the people we had in mind are dead.
So, you know, we had some in mind from that group that is dead.
And now we have another group.
They may be dead also based on reports.
Can you go to the Reza Palabhi question?
He loves saying that.
They're dead.
Well, he says it.
It's lots of emboules.
Go ahead.
But that he is dead.
Is he an option at all in your mind?
I guess he is some people like him.
And we haven't been thinking about too much about that.
It would seem to me that somebody from within might maybe would be more appropriate.
I've said that.
He looks like a very nice person.
But it would seem to me that somebody that's there, that's currently popular of this such a person.
But we have people like that.
We have people that were more moderate.
You know, these were radical lunatics.
And you know what they get?
They get nothing.
All they do is kill people.
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Jeff, what do you think I would be said here?
I think, look, it goes back to what we're talking about here is that if we're going to do this, let's do this.
Right?
If we're going to do this, let's not do a bunch of missile strikes and take out some capacity.
Then have to do this four or five years from now.
That was the lesson from the Gulf Wars.
If we're going to do this, let's do it right.
I have to believe that he has something in mind.
This is not just, hey, let's just hope that Iran, the Iranian regime, collapses on its own under its own weight.
And that somebody just magically shows up, you know, a scissor or a Washington or something just shows up.
And everything works out.
I have to believe because they are executing a strategy, both a big picture strategy.
And everything works out.
I have to believe because they are executing a strategy, both a big picture strategy, as well as a smaller picture strategy,
that they have something in mind for what comes next.
I believe it has to do with the popular uprising, too, because they keep saying, look, now is not the time to protest.
Wait.
Wait for what?
They have something in mind.
Well, we'll tell you when the time comes that the regime is on its last legs.
You guys rise up and take it.
That's the optimistic scenario.
I hope that's the case, and I think that there's probably a reasonable chance that it is.
You know, for most people that don't know their history, they know that we had the Cuban Missile Crisis.
What most Americans don't know is from about 1940 to 1950.
There was 10 years that there was a democratic government and system in Cuba.
Was it corrupt? Yes.
Were there problems? Yes. Were there assassinations? Yes.
But it wasn't Castro.
And then this guy shows up, I think it was 1950 to 1959, Batista.
And it was even more corrupt, and it got weird, and it opened the door for the revolution in 1952.
And what do we get?
Fidel Castro, forever.
And that's exactly the lesson here.
The lesson here is that, you know, think of that time in Cuba in 1944, 1950, as Iran before 1979.
And if you're not careful during like Batista with the Ayatollah, you get what you get.
And it goes a hell of a lot longer than you think.
So if we're going to do this, we need to do it.
And it's not just regime change, it's regime collapse.
What happened was Cuba's government, even though it was corrupt and cumbersome, it collapsed.
And now you had a long-term military dictatorship with no economic help for the people.
And we all know how it ends.
So right now, you can't just, you know, as Clinton did, throw a couple of cruise missiles into Bosnia and say,
see, what do you think of that?
You got to go in there and you can't remember that?
Yeah.
And he said, yeah, we dropped cruise missiles in Bosnia.
They did what?
How many barns were destroyed?
You didn't change anything.
And Bosnia, Herzogovina, and all the horrible genocide that was going there continued.
You have to finish the job and open the door for the people to establish new, not regime change,
regime collapse to bring back the glory.
And by the way, people are going to think I'm crazy.
Look at the pictures.
Look at the film.
Bring back the glory of Iran from 50 years ago that stopped 47 years ago.
Go look at that.
That could be brought back.
Maybe lost at all this is that there is that optimistic scenario.
Again, the Trump administration, to me, seems to be playing like a traitor.
We talked about this, Mark.
They're looking for a traitor.
A traitor.
A traitor.
Traitor.
Yes, a traitor, not traitor.
I know.
I want to make sure that.
Thank you for clarifying that.
Are those two?
No.
Yeah.
But no, a traitor.
What's a traitor?
A good traitor looks for asymmetric bets.
They'll take risk if the upside is absolutely huge.
And a free Iran is an absolute.
It is worth the gamble, I think.
I think that's what the calculation.
Look, it's the downside is really bad.
The upside is really good.
We think we can do it with Israel's a partner.
And I think that's what's taking place.
And I think the temperatures are going to go even higher as this extends.
Noise is going to get higher as it extends.
Markets are going to be volatile.
Markets are going to be volatile.
You know, be and we'll get into that here as well.
What's warning their green?
What Joe Lonstill.
Big time red.
I had Joe Lonstill on last week from Palantin.
And he said something very interesting about do it the way the Romans did it.
Okay.
On what to do with Iran.
And by the way, he said this two days before the war before we attacked Iran.
So watch this clip your billionaire co-founder of Palantir.
He hired a first few hundred employees at Palantir.
Watch this.
Go forward.
You're here to two arguments.
I think they're going to do a surgical mission the way they did Venezuela.
And it's two days before.
And here's what's going to happen.
And then the other side is like, how do we know that for fact?
So if I was in charge, I'd be very Roman about it.
So I don't know.
This is not appropriate.
But I'd be very Roman.
So you know, the Romans would do.
You'd go and you wipe out the leadership class.
You're all dead.
And you say, okay, you guys are now in charge.
We're going to make a deal.
Or we're going to kill all of you, too.
It's up to you.
Because you don't have the IRGC.
We're just in charge again, probably, right?
Because there's a guy.
So they guns.
And so, okay, now here's what we're going to do.
We're going to make a deal.
Here's what's going to happen.
Here's what your public's going to work to be free people.
And if you don't do that, then we'll kill you all in six months.
And we'll give you another chance.
But I don't think we should be occupying ourselves.
I think Iraq was terribly run.
I think trying to go and have people over there as ridiculous.
But should these guys who have acted like they've had, who spread terrorism around the region,
who have tried to kill Trump, who have killed so many people,
should they be allowed to get away with that in a way?
No way.
I wouldn't let him be a good way.
I'll tell you that.
How much do you think the attacks are going to be a collaboration with Israel?
Well, Israel has really good intelligence there.
Very region.
And so, obviously, if you're doing something,
you need to work with your allies to do as far as possible.
You can pause and respond.
So, I assume that's happening right now.
I assume it's like, hey, you're going to be the next leader.
You're next.
You're going to be the next supreme leader.
You're next.
This morning, I was reading an article or watching something.
That's it.
The president of Iran, Pezish Kyan, right now,
has decentralized power and decision-making
and has put it on the governors.
Where it's like rather than waiting for us to make the decision,
what do you think is right?
Make the decision.
And I think the reason why they're doing that,
because they don't know who's going to be alive, who's not.
So, rather than waiting, I said, what do you want me to do?
What would you like me?
Should I attack?
Should I not?
What do we do next?
Listen, what do you think is right?
Go do it.
They have gotten to the point that they have to do that,
because you know, it's...
You'll typically have a general to call.
You'll typically have the commander to call.
It's a very different approach.
Now they're taking it when it's decentralized.
And we'll see what happened with this as it's going.
Jamie Diamond was asked about how this affects the economy.
Here's what Jamie had to say.
He says, Iran's conflict won't be major inflationary hit.
Rob, I don't know if you have a clip on this.
I think you do.
Go for it.
As people kind of think about the potential ripple effects
of higher oil prices, for example.
Obviously, today's move is just one day.
Do you see a risk that this could lead to sustained inflation
over the long run?
Not.
I don't think this thing an isolated way will.
I think there's some risk that's more inflation than people think.
And that could be like a skunk and a party if that ever happens.
Hopefully, it doesn't happen.
And, you know, no one actually knows.
But, you know, this right now will increase, you know,
gas prices a little bit.
And again, if it's not prolonged, it's not going to be a major
inflationary hit.
Again, if it went on for a long time, that would be different.
Another concern that I've seen mentioned out there is the risk
of retaliatory cyber attacks, banks being a potential target there.
How concerned are you about that?
I know that's something that you mentioned in your letter about a year ago.
I think the most important thing is that we keep the Western world free
and safe in democracy.
You know, and people like this have gotten away literally with murder for 50 years.
So, that's far more important.
But, you know, as a corollary to that, you got to expect there will be cyber attacks
or terrorist attacks either here around the world.
You know, banks may be targeted so many, you know, plenty of other people.
And we always try to be prepared for that.
We never try to predict when, why, where we spend a lot of money protecting ourselves
for cyber things, part of our job.
But I've always said, I would consider one of the highest risk banks there.
Not just the cycle, cyber.
Yes, I remember that from your letter last year.
And of course, we are here at the leverage.
Tom, thoughts.
So, Jamie Dimon is speaking at the Global Leveraged Finance Conference.
Translation.
This is where they have their butt hung out with billions and billions of global leverage.
Translations loans to the rest of the world.
The only thing he's going to do is be a Secretary of State and try to talk about calmness.
Especially sitting there at his own conference on global leveraged finance.
The last thing he wants would be to make some spook comments.
Because Jamie is probably one of the few voices in America outside the Fed
that can move a market like radically.
Because a lot of people fall behind him.
Snyder.
Yeah, Jamie in inflation, there's a tortured history there.
I mean, last year he talked about how tariffs were going to create
much more inflation than people were expecting.
At the same time, the JP Morgan was buying US Treasury bonds, hand over fist.
So you never know what he's actually.
But you're right.
He is more of a politician than anything.
And so his whole point here is to maintain calm.
He realizes that if oil prices go higher, it's going to create a bunch of trouble.
There's already trouble percolating up in the credit markets to begin with,
especially in private credit and leveraged loans in particular.
So he is, yeah, let's keep this at the absolute minimum
so that people don't get too upset about what's taking place.
Mark.
Well, I think, as you said, I mean, when Jamie talks, you have to listen.
He's one of the few people that can move markets as you said.
He understands what's going on.
Now, of course, he has to talk his own book and his job is to calm the market, so to speak.
But I would say, you know, as far as is he right or wrong, of course, he's right.
It's pretty obvious.
If this is a prolonged conflict, we're going to have inflation for any number of reasons
and we can go through the list of what those are.
If this is relatively short, it gets wrapped up in four or five weeks, as Trump said, maybe it will.
Then probably it's just a little blip and it's not a big deal.
But certainly we already see a little bit of uptick and oil prices, a little bit of uptick and gas.
I think not only about prices going up because of supply chains and oil prices, et cetera,
but also because of the sheer amount of debt and monetary stimulus we're going to need to fight this war as well.
So if it's prolonged, yes, we're going to have inflation.
And I think Trump ran on a couple main points.
Number one, bringing inflation down.
Two, having markets do very, very well and three, peace, no wars.
And so a sustained conflict takes away all three of those points, but two anyway, to Jamie's points.
If this is sustained, yeah, inflation's going to be a problem.
Okay. All right. We'll see.
I mean, last time, Rob, we ran a poll.
The poll was, how long do you think this is going to last?
And what was the number 57% less than four weeks?
Some 50 to 60% less than four weeks?
Are you guys in the same spot?
You're not?
Okay. Why don't we do this, Rob?
Why don't we do this longer?
Don't say anything, Rob.
Run it, run another poll, identical.
Because now it's been how long?
It's been five days, right?
Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.
We're now, today's Wednesday or Thursday.
I think today's Wednesday.
Five days.
Ask the same exact question.
And I'm curious to know what the audience is saying on how long they think it's going to last now.
And pull it up on Paulie Market, too.
The Paulie Market has it up and open.
Calcium, Paulie Market.
They have it.
Okay. We'll take a look at that as well.
Rob, if you want to pull that post at, I'm curious because I'm sure there's a calcium on that.
100% there's going to be calcium.
Rob, did you post it or not yet?
Oh, I'm posting it right now.
The other day, Paulie Market had like 50% ending in like 12 weeks.
Ending in 12 weeks.
Yeah, 50%.
A couple days ago, I don't know where it's at as of today.
What do you think it's going, Jeff?
I think this is more complex than people want to give it credit.
Four weeks, I think, is overly optimistic.
This is a very complex operation that takes time.
And unlike previous administrations, they're, I mean, they're absolutely right talking about this.
I mean, think about the first Gulf War.
As soon as it got into the complex part of it, the Bush administration said, oh, we're done.
They stopped way shorter where they probably should have.
And I think it was a realization that to go to the final lengths that they wanted to go to,
the final lengths that the Trump administration wants to go to,
this is not a four week operation.
This is a complex operation.
It's going to take time.
It's going to take an investment.
I think they're laying the groundwork for that to take place.
That's why they're saying four weeks, maybe five.
We'll see how it goes.
But that doesn't mean it's going wrong.
It just means it takes time to do what they're trying to do because what they're trying to do
is not have to do this every couple of years.
Yeah, it's funny.
Right now, if you look at the poll, Rob, if you want to pull it up, is that it?
Yes, sir.
Okay, it's 2000 sample size, a little over 2000, 25 percent less than a month,
one to three months, 44 percent, three to six months, 12, six months plus 19.
Now, when we did the same exact poll on Saturday, look what Saturdays look like.
You have a picture of it, Rob.
If you just want to, it's going to be a little bit pixelated.
How long do you think the last 6000 votes, 47 percent less than a month?
And that is now flipped from less than a month to one to three months in five days.
So I'll take the one to three.
You'll take the one to three.
I'll take the one to three.
And I say that based off of Trump seems to have this pattern.
So if you look at this pattern that he has where, if we look at the tariff negotiations, for example, right?
He comes in and says, hey, if we're going to make a deal and I'm going to take everything from you, really, really strong.
And then he sort of like backs off like make a deal.
Then he started moving warships over, started staging them.
So we saw it happening with Maduro as well.
Started staging the ship, started applying pressure.
And then he backs it off.
He starts kind of seeding the news stories like, hey, there's probably a deal coming.
Then no deal happens.
And so you see these waves of power.
And so when we look at the tariffs, when we look at Maduro, Venezuela, et cetera.
I think about six to 12 weeks seems to be about the time frame that it takes to go from like that, that sort of first pressure to get in the deal done.
Do you have the calcium numbers, Rob?
And we'd have to say what done looks like.
Yeah.
And so when I say done, obviously to your point, this is probably going to take a long time.
But what I would say what done looks like is is where the war de escalates.
Yes.
What is this?
When the Straits of Hormuz is no longer any threat, and then they can still do whatever it is they need to do.
It's really the active conflict that leads to potentially escalating, escalating branches.
I mean, that's that's really what we'll see that part.
Go back to the calcium wrap.
Is that the one that we're looking at?
USC Ron nuclear deal.
Oh, that's a whole different thing.
I think that part.
I don't, again, if it's a regime change versus regime collapse, who the hell isn't negotiating nuclear deal?
If it's about regime collapse, there is no nuclear deal.
We're not doing no nuclear deal with you.
It's just, there is no conversation similar to how, and this says what?
This says who the next leaders are going to be?
Yes, sir.
Well, they have this one figured out.
Seven million.
Seven million dollars.
Waged on this one.
Interesting.
By the way, you know who's quietly coming up, Tom, who's getting more press than JD.
If you were to right now, go and look, look at minutes on TV.
Okay.
The last 90 days.
Who has more?
Is it a hexet or rubio?
I'm so hexet or JD?
Yeah.
90 days.
Oh, it's hexet and rubio over JD.
So you realize that you want to look at as they should right now.
It is as they should right now.
But that's also, you know, a lot of these calories have JD at the top.
Now, hexets coming up.
So imagine this ends good for hexet.
Now you have a three-way race of who's going to be running for 2028.
You have JD.
You have rubio, and you have, you know, a hexet wanting to put this at it.
Did a rubio say if JD runs, I'm not going to run?
He did.
But let me tell you, the people that are in his ear, they have a lot of work to do.
Kind of shift his mindset to be like, look, you know, you don't get them.
Think about how hot this antis was in 2020, 2021.
Remember how hot he was at one point, and he won by 34,000 votes first time,
second time he won by a million and a half.
Check how many chances you everybody forgot already what the Santas did.
The Santas is news is yesterday, right?
If this is happening right now, hexet may want to get involved and participate
in some of the stuff that's going on.
Just hopefully we forget.
Because remember that we were talking about that for three days on a national level.
Not just this podcast.
Which one?
The one on a national level when the re election of the Santas.
Oh my gosh.
He won, date County.
Remember that a Republican one day.
County.
It was only Orange County a small part of Orlando he lost.
Oh my gosh.
He's on a roll.
And guess what?
One season later.
There you go.
Yep.
Yep.
So that's why we don't know fully what happened next.
Roll quick, I have the touch on the story because it's something that happened.
Bill Clinton, Rob.
Bill Clinton.
You know, him and his wife have had an interesting week.
Weak it is funny when his lawyers like stop looking at picture give it back to me and then bill kicked it
I don't know if you got that or not. Yeah, it is so funny Rob. What do you have here?
That was like smiling and nodding. It was creepy. Did you guys find that creepy that you you kidding me?
Of course it's creepy, you know, some of the answers he gave which ones do you have Rob? You have quite a few of them. Yes, I have
Asked why Epstein said that Bill Clinton liked them young
I have
Bill Clinton talking about president trumpet if he was involved in anything improper with Epstein as well
I guess one of the ones you can show you can show that one. Do we show that last week or not yet? No, we talked about it
But the clips did not get the one when they're showing a picture of a girl and a lawyer takes it from him
And then he takes it back. I'll find that. Do you know which one I'm talking about? Yep start with one of them right now
So we can look at because you know Hillary Clinton was definitely furious, but let's start off with Bill first
I hate this, but because I don't believe I should inject anything
But I do not want to leave the impression
In the sense there was no follow-up question
He never the president never this is funny something years ago
Never said anything to me to make me think he was involved in anything improper with regard to
Epstein he just didn't
That's the truth I would you know
As I said earlier
The only conversation I have with president trumpet about this was in the early 2000s
And I have no information
That he did anything wrong. I just wanted all out there
I want everybody to get it all out there and will everybody see where we are
What do you think about that Jeff?
Where do you start with all this stuff?
It's look Clinton is Clinton, but
Is he being lawyerly here? You know, I didn't hear Jeffrey Epstein say
He had anything I mean the context bill right the context. What were you doing?
But I think the bigger question about all of this is did they get anything out of him?
Did they get anything out of Hillary did they get anything out of bill and I'm not sure that they did
Which is why I think Hillary was upset and not to defend Hillary here
But what she was upset about was the fact that the congressman bobert leaked a photo
Which
Why leak a photo if you're getting some if you're getting somewhere
It's it's to create sensationalism in the absence of finding something that you were looking for so that's what I mean
At the end of the day is this another waste of our time. I mean because look the Clintons made a huge deal out of this
They they were threatened to not show up to Congress. So it's like they had something to hide
Did Congress actually find out what they had to hide and if they did, what is it?
Because I know this is another one of those that looks like another dead end
All right, so I want to show you three clips Rob go to the first one. I send you three of them and then we'll go to the next story
The first one is not this one. It's the other one where to grow pull the lawyer to the left
Swipes the paper. I text that one to you as well. I texted three clips to you. Yeah, is this it? This is funny. Watch this
What's this?
What's this?
He's smiling. Yeah
Okay
Mr. President, we have about five minutes remaining in the majority's first hour. So I just want to ask you
Some questions related to
The crimes you you can go to the next one about the painting because the painting story is funny
Now, tell you why this is funny. Go ahead submitted to the record. We have a painting
That seems to be of you Mr. President found in one of Jeffrey Epstein's residences wearing a
I would categorize it as a famous blue dress worn by
White House the White House intern Monica Lewinsky
And I have this image here. This image is being passed around if
So Mr. Mr. President we are looking at an image of a portrait
That is
looks to be
You Mr. President in this blue dress. Can you describe this painting and
He doesn't need to describe the painting you just gave him a picture. What's your question? My question is are you familiar with this painting?
Have you ever seen it in person? I've never seen it in person
Do you know why someone would paint this? Are you object? That's that's cause for speculation. You can ask the artist and
If I had known Jeffrey Epstein had this painting
You're gonna save me this whole day
It's funny with that blue painting. He says he hasn't seen it right? Well, this is the tricky part
I had Michael Wolfe on Michael Wolfe had been at Epstein's place in Revenue 400 hours
And I ask Michael Wolfe Robb if you go to minute 20
There you go go to 21 30 I said hey, what do you know about this painting?
Did you ever see this painting in his place? Which by the way we know
That the president has been to Epstein's rob we know that president has been to Epstein's house multiple times right
According to the president he said he's never been to the Zoro Ranch property not the Zoro Ranch
I'm talking about the Manhattan one
I'm not sure about the Manhattan the only things I saw him talk about in the in the deposition was the island
Which he claimed he was never to and the New Zealand the New Mexico ranch. He claims he never went to okay play this clip go for it
Octane to this private residence you know how they say that painting of
President Bush and Clinton did you ever see those two paintings in the in the
property? I I don't know the the president bush. I saw I saw that one it was in a little a little it was in a
Basically in a closet off the main entrance. Did you ever ask him why he has that's a very weird painting for you to have of a president
In a dress and a painting in a in a in a painting. That's kind of weird
Yeah, I think it was a joke painting. You know at one point. I never saw that painting
So I don't I don't know where where the bush painting is from
I have seen the Clinton painting and
You know it was a
A joke the nature of the joke. You can pause exactly
You got to keep on my Michael wolf is not necessarily the biggest Trump fan himself. So he is a guy that
It is is probably more Clinton than it is, but you know to say that painting didn't exist
Uh, a lot of people know about that painting. Who knows whether he's seen it or not
You know the we know what the painting means the blue dress. He did say it was in a closet
He did say I mean, I'm no fan of the Clintons, but
He did say it was in a closet. Yeah, he said right next to a closet that you could see
If it wasn't a closet, then what is Michael wolf doing in the closet? Yeah
You know what I'm saying. I mean, it's even a little bit more concerning
He kind of looked like he knew the painting and it was like this is an inside joke between him and him. Yeah
That's what I mean, that's the reaction
I you know what you know what the blue dress is. Yeah, it's Monica Lewinsky's dress. Yeah, so
Uh, he was chocolate. Yeah
And by the way, even the lawyer was chocolate the lawyer was juggling like I can't believe my client such a big playboy
But I got to defend him here today, but then go to the Hillary one and we can move on with this because
here's uh
The amazing Hillary Clinton go ahead
I'm in other photos that are being released
Of the secretary as she is testifying from inside this room
Can you please advise me as to whether or not that's permissible and consistent with the rules
Particularly given that we have asked for public hearing if there are photos that are being released of the secretary
She is testifying. Can you please explain how I've done with this if you guys are doing that. I am done
You can hold me and attempt from now until the cows come home. This is just typical behavior
Oh, so I would like to understand how that permissible
It doesn't matter. We all are abiding by the same rules. I will take that down. Yeah, well
I would like to take a break at this. Yeah, I'd like to have done for now
That's pretty bad on who's end. That's pretty bad
I
For the for bobar who posted that. Yeah. I mean, why would you do that? I'm with you there. I'm with Hillary on that one
Yeah, sorry. I it's it's that was there's no reason to do always know you were a big Hillary support. Yeah
Come on now you're killing me
I mean you have forcing you to support him. Yeah, you're forcing me to support him
No, the Republicans are forcing me to do that. I agree. I agree. I agree. You can't do that
If you look to quorum and power you need to corner the witness with
This and you need to avoid avoid the side show and this created a side show. I will say this Clinton looked old
Yeah, Bill or Hillary it like the handshake. Yeah, I mean you looked older than I remember just from recent media and stuff
And it's really shocking because you remember
He and Trump are exactly two months apart
Trump is in the middle of June. I think Clinton's middle of August or you're right
But I've heard that they were two months apart in age
But which one of them looks more vibrant right now. It's not yet. Yeah
It's not even cooler. There's a red thing that they're talking about with the president
There's still some stuff that's going on that they're
Sure talking about the president, but you're right. It's not even close the energy and by the way
Imagine how when have you gone a day or two that you haven't seen a president on the screen talking to somebody? Yeah every day
He does all hours of the day. Yeah all hours of the day
I'll go back to something that Jeff said though like why would they post that like if they had something
They probably wouldn't be trying to cause that uproar. Maybe maybe not
I think probably all of us not to speak for everybody
But I think we're all pretty disappointed in how slow the government's been going through this Epstein stuff
Like where's the arrest like I think a lot of us maybe thought we knew it was in Epstein files
But to see it confirmed. I mean it's shocking how terrible it is and so where where are the arrest where's the action
However, however, I'm no attorney obviously, but like these cases do take time to get built up
So I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that they didn't find anything to your point
They did make a deal to show up so that meant that they probably did have something there otherwise
Why would they've asked for a deal?
There is maybe something came out. Maybe I'm maybe I'm hopeful here
You know who's next lot Nick is next. Yeah, and they won Malani and they won Charlie coming. He's voluntary coming
Which is great. By the way, this is great. Do it. That's you know, it doesn't look good for him
It doesn't look good for a fan of let Nick. Yeah, it doesn't look good for him
Yeah, it doesn't when you come in multiple times saying nothing to one time
It's a bad look and the constant smiling like what's the big deal. I think that's also
A bigger thing that the frustrates on people. But let's get to the next story a massive story broke guys
You have to see this. This is massive. This is heartbreak and some people are saying this is bigger than the Iran story
It's not getting enough credit
But low key a lot of people are paying attention to this of what the CEO of McDonald's just did
The CEO of McDonald's tried to do a publicity stunt
To introduce the new burger that they're launching which is called what the big arch
Rob is it already out or not yet?
Uh, I'm not sure if it's out. I'll check. Jake. Is it out? Do you know if it's out or no?
Okay, this is the PR tour. Okay, it's supposed to be part of the story
It came out today. Beautiful. Let's say let's cancel a podcast. Let's go guys
So here's long for lunch him eating
The McDonald's a new big arch burger and then obviously right afterwards burger kings like this is a massive opportunity for us
Rob maybe don't go from the beginning because people will it's a cure for insomnia
But yeah, if you can play it from the go for it from right there. That's fine at two
quarter pound patties a delicious big arch sauce
And of course some lettuce. So oh, there's so much going on with this first of all
Let's try to get this thing
I don't even know how to attack it got so much to it. Oh, there's also some crispy onions on here as well
I see those kind of coming out like a vegetarian
All right, the moment of truth
Come on buddy. Take that is so good. That's a big bite for a big arch
It's distinctively McDonald's only McDonald's could do this type of burger
But it also was unlike anything else on our menu. Okay, so delicious sounds like a nice guy
Do me favor go to the burger king seal and watch what he does here. He doesn't even say anything
He just puts on a
Kitchen what do you call a chef's
Apron and then takes a bite out of it and go ahead Rob
That's a bite
Not bad, right? Only one thing missing a napkin
For yeah, so what do you do when you look at this? What do you say?
Mr. Ciel respectfully. You're not a personality. Yes. Yes. That's somebody in marketing should have said
You're not the guy to be out in front of this. Yeah, you're kind of robotic
You don't look like a human in some case you look like the burger king
You look like a vegetarian the burger king guy look like he should be eating burger king
Yeah, that's guy does not look like it like if I put my marketing hat on for a second
It looks like what he was trying to do is show how big it was and he's like oh look at his two patties
It's gotten it's like it's so big. Let's see and what do you say? Let me see if I can get my mouth around
But isn't that even overthinking it? It's just it is and so he's robotic and they coach him
And so then he's trying to make it look big by taking a small bite is probably what they told them something
It was a marketing thing. It was it was it was bad. It was horrible
Well burger wars have been going on for a while
But by way, we have a
Value team and has a case study that's going to drop this week on the burger wars
coincident enough we shot it last week
And what's amazing you think about it?
McDonald's if you took the top 10
A burger chains pat what percent of the total revenue of all top 10 combined is McDonald's what how much which one?
55% really of all the top 10 they are last year
They were 57 billion dollars. They grew six percent last year when most nobody else grew and
Wendy's has been rumbling stumbling burger king is about to leap program set place 11 billion bucks
They're gonna leap probably 27 billion versus 11 billion
And the boutiques are doing great and an ounce doing great water burgers doing great. Those are the boutiques
But what's really interesting is McDonald's on a roll remember what happened
Just a couple years ago
McDonald's was kind of flat with growth and they had this guy Steve Easterbrook was her CEO
Do you remember what happened to him?
He was caught dipping the French fry with a member of his staff and
He suddenly resigned and they had this big settlement and because he lied to the board the board
Sue him and for the one of the first times in US history a
Exiting CEO that had this big parachute package had to give the parachute back 100 million dollars
So what parachute what do you mean parachute like
They gave him a parachute is like a couple different meanings. Well when he when he was dismissed
They gave him a hundred million dollars to go away as part of his contract
But then the board realized just how much this Steve Easterbrook guy apparently had deceived the board
And they actually sued to get it back and that's rare
Usually have America sitting there slack job saying so a CEO gets fired and he gets $25 million to retire
Well, I don't know if this guy would talk dirty the right way
So they don't have to worry about that
No, this guy this guy is going to say wow
How big this burger is
Are you ready to go for it right now you're about to get it
Yeah, I don't I don't know if I see that happen. So the board is pretty fine with them. By the way
I looked up as boy his background. He's been the president CEO since 19
He was a chairman the board since 2024 Duke University grad
Harbor he got his MBA. He was at proctor and gamble started and brand management then went to Boston
Consulting group BCG. So he's a consultant then went to PepsiCo
corporate strategy and later VP of marketing then went to craft foods
A EVP of growth initiatives president of craft international
Then he joined McDonald's as the EVP of strategy
Then he became president of McDonald's USC running 14,000 restaurants then he became the CEO
So he's a guy that's a corporate guy that's moved around a few different places
But he's been at McDonald's for a few years regarding shareholder. You like this guy. Yeah, you do the transition of Steve
Mr. Brooke. He's done a great job. Yeah, he's just not a guy for the commercial see him at the ninth club
You're not going to see him out the party in hardcore
I was gonna say regarding regarding McDonald's I have a friend who owns about a dozen McDonald's franchises
He's second generation his father owned a bunch of franchises. He was able to buy some of those from him
And he is he's about my age and he's trying to exit all of his franchises as quickly as he can
He said that lots of people are doing that. He said that the DEI policies have gotten so bad inside
That what's happened is they don't allow them to now buy and sell McDonald's franchises freely
And so now they have to be sold to DEI candidates
And so what that's done is it's lowered the value of his franchises now wow
So now he's not able to sell them for the value that he would have before and he said it's just getting worse and worse
So he's trying to exit all of them and he has kids like I'm like, why wouldn't you get your kids like you got him
He's like, no, no, the value is going down so fast. I'm exiting all of them right now
I thought that was kind of interesting
We had a call with the chief expansion officer of McDonald's probably about eight months ago was a zoom seven months ago
About opening up and and the McDonald's in Armenia
And by the time we were done with the conversation it wasn't something they were interested in at the time because of risk protection
Military they have a certain program
A structure they use on expanding into different countries and they said not right now. Maybe later on
but
Fun fact this guy doesn't attend co-play concerts. I don't know if that matters anything. We're not
I just want to put that out there. Yeah, that he's safe. Okay, let's go to the next story next story. We got here
Is Miami Heat? Why does this matter? Okay, this is not a sports podcast, but the Miami Heat's phones
Are ringing off the hook as California billionaires look to drop nine figures on homes
In the three oh five and we're seeing the well tax conversation that is taking place. So
Saddi
Abunza Bilgato has sold luxury real estate in South Florida for over
Three decades typically to doctors or family business owners
Ready to spend as much as eight million dollars on a home in the Miami area almost overnight that change or phone
Started ringing with billionaires titans of
Tech and finance looking to drop nine figures on waterfront properties. I got a
Flurry of requests and inquiries
Bilgato has landed two billionaire clients recently told business insider had a lot of zoom calls
With people coming in January after the holidays while the Florida migration
Among everyday people may have cooled
Following a pandemic era boom billionaires are fueling the spree of
Massive purchases. They are largely looking to avoid a
Property California well tax which Bilgato said led to the busiest January
She's ever experienced three other agents told business insider that inquires picked up at the end of 2025
And into 2026. We know Mark Zuckerberg
Just bought a hundred seventy million out of home if you want to pull that up Rob
I think if I'm not mistaken
There is a king Griffin that's building a billion dollar home in compound in Palm Beach
And it's going to be the most expensive private residents in America with what he's built in and it got sir
brain and
Citadel is building a massive building in Miami. Yeah, and by the way
Palantir also announced that they're moving to
Miami as well. So Jeff, what are your thoughts on this story here? Can we stop calling it a tax?
It's not a tax. It's confiscation
You know what they're proposing California California. Thank you. It's not a tax. It is not a tax
Whatever you think about billionaires and we should not be demonizing billionaires. Whatever you think about billionaires
It's inherently unfair and I'm going to use the word. It's on American
You don't confiscate somebody's wealth just because they're wealthy
So you can understand why they're fleeing California and other places. It's not just California, Illinois
That's where Citadel was in Chicago correct
So
They're fleeing these blue states and somebody who's done that before I mean
I used to live in upstate New York
I moved to Florida for basically the same reason certainly not on that level
But you can understand where they're coming from because it's not a tax
It's not a matter of policy disagreements. It's a matter of philosophical disagreements
The government in California philosophically has shifted the shift is at the point that it demonizes success
it demonizes people who are
able to
To create wealth essentially which is what an economy actually needs is this wealth creation
It's no longer just about hey, we need to raise some revenue for the government
There's a there's a there's a different element to it
And I think finally some of these people who may have supported that in the past have realized that the
The uh the worm has changed here and this is something completely did this is categorically different
This is not a tax. This is something completely different. Yeah
Yeah, I love the word. It's it is confiscation. It's confiscation. It's not what you earned. It's what you have
There's a big difference you have a big gear you earn a lot you pay taxes on that we have a tax code
Progressive the higher he goes the higher it goes and all the sudden you hit a million dollars and every dollar above that
It's 39% of the federal government and plus whatever is in your state
This is I don't like what you have after you've paid your taxes and people need to think about it that way
That's so-called billionaire tax is confiscation
After they have paid taxes after they have paid it so the only thing is jealousy
Oh, well, they've made too much. You might take it or it's socialist confiscation
There's another word here attraction, you know and leadership
So attraction and leadership go hand in hand together in Florida attraction
Francis Suarez
Has probably one of the most economically changing tweets in American history wouldn't you say Pat?
How can I help yeah, and all the sudden there's a crypto conference in Miami and people realizing wow
Just this is what you have to offer traffic's not perfect things aren't perfect
But you know what you you offer no income taxes you offer a lot of other things and
Francis Suarez worked to cultivate that so it was attraction and leadership then look what
DeSantis did leading during COVID so now Florida's attractive to people and somehow that's a bad thing
And now you're shocked that millionaires are coming down here to
Buy millionaires and billionaires are coming down to buy
Incredible places in an incredible state. It's a law of attraction and leadership set it up
Yeah, and so I but please please correct all your friends
Mark you're the only one that lives in California right now when that lives in California
So tell us you know
I would say to the points that you both made
It's absolutely right. I just want to hit on that point
It's confiscation of property
But I think there's a big misconception by that public to how billionaires hold their wealth because what it's really doing is
It's forced liquidation of assets and so when you look at you know a Jeff Bezos or an Elon Musk
Yeah, they don't just have billions of dollars of cash in in a bank
They can just like cut a check for they have it in their stock of their company paper
And so yeah, but not just paper in ownership and so what they're really being forced to do right
It's they're being forced to give up ownership of their company
And then that ownership is gonna go to who and so then that ownership gets democratized or goes to people who don't know how to run or
Or manage though that ownership of those properties. So I think that's a that's a really big problem
To your point though Pat. Yeah billionaires are leaving
Friends of mine that are not billionaires, but even millionaires make make millions per year
They're leaving right now as well and the reason why is because it's very easy for the state of California to just
Turn a dial and bring it down to lower income people without even having to go back through another vote
And so I think that's really bad and the last thing I'd say is kind of to the point that you said about attracting people
It's a character or a stick right we look at Dubai
I went to Dubai for the first time two years ago and I was blown away coming from California
Like how nice the streets were and how new the buildings were and they've done that by attracting talent by giving you a good business
Climate low taxes things like that things like the things like
Florida has done and so it's catastrophic
Florida's lucky I guess New York and California are pushing the best of the best of them
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I want to say this to some of you guys that are buyers of big homes
You'll m-eck me and you'll say pat
I'm looking at a $12 million home in bulk. I'm looking at a $22 million home in Manila pan
If you're a bigger buyer just keep this part in mind a tip for you when you're negotiating commissions
It is a different conversation to have versus wellness and my I normally charge five and six
But for you because we really like you four and five percent. No, no
The way you negotiate if you're buying a house that's above 10 million or above 20 million or above a hundred million
Whatever the number may be is you say look. I don't know. Let's just say you want to buy a $50 million house
Don't negotiate rate
Because four percent on to on 50 million as well two million dollar commission
Rather say I don't know how big of a house on buying are you willing to work with a flat fee of a half a million dollars
They don't like that. So remember the different you know how big of a house you want to buy
Don't tell them how big of a house you want to buy say I'm talking a handful of different realtors
And have a very simple agreement if you're open to it you help me find a property
It's a half a million dollar flat fee. So this is not a seven hundred thousand dollar house where it's five or six percent or
Million eight dollar house. That's four and a half five percent. No talk about a flat fee
Uh, and some of these guys will agree some of them won't agree
Some of them will agree to be able to say I sold the house to Sarah gay brin I sold the house
So if you're somebody that's in that market
So the only question is if you are sir gay brin don't let them trade on your name. Yeah, you need a question you need to buy this
Would you like me to to bring the U-Haul? Yeah, when you look I'm thankful for pat giving us some free
Consulting here because now I know I have to negotiate my deal. No, but in all honesty
I mean I grew up there and I love I love it there and like my lifestyle is built there
But my daughter my youngest daughter is gonna graduate high school in a year and there's a good chance
We're probably gonna move our tax residents. I have a ranch in Texas. I got a beautiful house in Mexico
Like I could just move my tax residence and there's probably a pretty good chance
I might do that and I don't want I don't want to where you're looking at in Texas
Well, I have a I have a ranch property in dripping springs outside of Austin
It's beautiful like I said I have my house in
And in Mexico that we could just go live at on the beach down there
Choses you made the right decisions where you and your family have a choice on what to do with that
And I don't want to and I'm willing to pay a premium. I'm willing to pay a premium to stay there
Yeah, I don't eat him McDonald's going back to me. I don't need McDonald's. I'd rather go get a steak
So I'm willing to pay a premium to live there, but there's only
Flip him right so you shouldn't lose a person like this. This is a good citizen good for society family
Why not keep them instead of pushing them to a different place?
If you think about Florida as one of your options
Let us know I have a realtor that charges 7% but it'll be a deal for you
Hey, by the way for those of you guys that are watching family member
For those of you guys that are watching this and and your tuning
I've got two more stories to do before we wrap up
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Okay, let's get to the next story next story. I want to go to
I got so many direction to go with this next one
But I'm trying to see is there a specific story for us to go to yeah, let's talk about this one here. So
Michael sailors strategy steps up bitcoins buys by using common shares
There are a lot of people that are sitting around saying what is gonna happen
With these guys if all of a sudden you get that famous movie that we've all seen in the financial industry
Margin call is there such a thing that this guy's gonna get a margin call because either this guy
Has the biggest brass in the world
He's the biggest gamble in the world
One of two stories are gonna be told about him in the next five to ten years
He's either gonna be one the top five top ten biggest richest people in the world or he's a name you'll never hear about
It's kind of like if you've ever read the book
Virgin I don't know what it was called the
With Branson his mother said losing my virginity lose my virginity is his mother or his teacher said either my son's gonna be in prison
Or he's gonna be a very famous man in the world
So Michael sailors kind of going for that he bought more than two hundred million dollars of Bitcoin
Turning to common stock to finance the bulk of its acquisition despite promises to lean on its perpetual
Preferred shares the company for the loads on micro strategy about
15 bitcoins between February 23rd and march force according to regulatory filing Monday
roughly 230 million hours of the purchase was funded through class
Sales of class a common stock the remaining seven million about three percent of total came from at the market sales of its stretch
Preferred shares rather if you can pull up
What prices are on by the previous week was
40 million where's Bitcoin right now 72,000? So can you go to six months six percent go to six months
six months now 50 percent off. Yeah, so what do you think about what Michael is doing here? Yeah, Mark
I'd love to answer this if if we could pull up strategy calm pull up their website and just look at some of these stats right here
Most people it's so new and groundbreaking most people don't understand Bitcoin of course Jeff does we talked about it for hours and hours and hours
But because you don't understand Bitcoin you can't really understand what strategy is doing
It's here looking at it through the wrong lens and what do I mean by that first of all the whole world the financial world is built off
Discounted future cash flows so we buy stocks based off of a PE ratio and we hope that in the future
They're going to borrow money and in the future they're going to invest it into their
Data center and hopefully in the in the future that'll make enough money where they can pay me back or I do it through a bond
And I'll loan them money and I hope they pay me back
So you know the mag seven's trading at a 30 40 50 times PE ratio. Hopefully you have the cash flow
What strategies doing is something completely different
You give them money and they buy the asset
They're not hoping to have cash flow in the future. They have the assets. So look at these charts right here
What we can see right now 2.2 million dollars in cash but more importantly net leverage 11 percent debt lows very low
They have 30 months of dividend coverage, but they have 58 years
Of assets to cover what they owe now if you don't believe in Bitcoin none of this makes any sense to you
If you believe if you believe Bitcoin's going to zero then this is the stupidest thing in the world
So that being said. I don't think that's the case now some people want to look at either extreme either
Bitcoin's going to be a millionaire is going to be zero
No, it doesn't have to be Bitcoin could also just be 200,000
I don't believe it's going to zero the chance as Jeff said asymmetric bets the chance of going to zero is is
Barely zero
So if you don't believe Bitcoin's going to zero then look at this company from a different lens
58 years of assets to cover the dividend 2.2 million so that's the that's the first underlying thing now secondly
Why would he be selling common stock to buy more Bitcoin number one Bitcoin's down 50 percent it's an amazing buy an opportunity
Anytime it's around the 200 weekly moving average. It's a historic buy number two what he does is you can look here. It says
Imnap on the right right there 1.2 percent so the company's being valued at a 1.2 times
Book value price to book if you'll call it that right?
So what that means is if he sells common stock to buy more Bitcoin at that price
It's a creative to what he's doing and micro strategy people need to understand what they're buying at micro strategy is they're buying
A ratio of Bitcoin per share
So the goal of micro strategy is to get the Bitcoin per share higher
So if I buy a micro strategy, I want exposure to Bitcoin's price and so I'm expecting him to get the amount of Bitcoin per share higher
That's what I'm buying it for and anytime he sells common stock above one. It's a creative for me
So I can kind of stop there. It's a smart move on what he's doing. I think it's a very smart move
And now if you're a common stock holder and you don't understand this you go. Oh, I'm being diluted. I was the risk though
What's the worst thing that can happen to Michael? Yeah
Well, the risk would the risk would be Bitcoin going to zero and staying there forever
I think the risk of that is is very low, you know almost zero
What a lot of people don't understand is the way that he's built this debt
So what people say is oh if Bitcoin drops below 30,000 he'll get liquidated if it drops below 10,000
I get liquidated none of that is true
None of the Bitcoin is pledged as collateral none of it is callable
So he can allow the stock to crater to five bucks or ten bucks and he can just sit there
And so what as long as you believe Bitcoin's going to go back higher again
So again, if Bitcoin goes to zero, that is the risk
But he can withstand the storm. He's built up multiple layers of
Of protection again 2.2 billion in cash or million in cash
And so the greatest risk is Bitcoin goes to zero as long as Bitcoin doesn't go to zero
There's really no risk now one of the things that he did when he converted
Micro strategy into strategy when he started doing this about five years going 2020
He sort of he bought out all the people that weren't aligned with this
If you don't believe in what we're doing get out. Here's your money. I love that all the institutions
What are you doing right and so your business over here and so are you buying all this he has control of the company
He's bought out everyone who doesn't believe in it
And all the shareholders have bought in believing in this MNAV number and the accretive
Function of what he's doing and so there's not really a lot of risk unless Bitcoin goes to zero which you know Jeff
You could get probabilities on that. I think it's uh, I'm really it's a zero chance
It's Bitcoin going to zero is never not gonna have right
And you're right. It's the MNAV that that people are what the market is saying the stock market is saying is we believe in Michael
We're willing to pay a premium for Bitcoin stock which he's leveraging to buy more Bitcoin and unlike I have no problem with what he's doing
And he's got 2.2 billion in cash which
The biggest mistake that people in finance make is being forced to sell
Because they're overly leveraged and then something happens in the market and adverse reaction
They're forced to liquidate and that's where bad things start to force liquidation
That's not that's not going to happen with strategy
I'm more concerned about it happening with some of the other copycats show that they are probably not in the same situation
But all that's going to do is create a buying opportunity
And let's say Bitcoin continues to go lower which is
It's frankly, it's really possible. I'm going to buy a ton of Bitcoin if it gets under 50,000
You're going to want a ton of Bitcoin
So as far as strategy is concerned
They're not the one to be focused on because this is sort of my wheelhouse and Jeff and I have talked hours on Bitcoin
I'd love to just point out if I if I can take a second
I think this may be one of the most undervalued stocks that you could buy today
I was about to say that exactly and here and here's why and it's a Bitcoin lens
Okay, it's a Bitcoin lens so bear with me on this for a second
Look at the price to book 1.2 times
So what what Jeff is saying that the market is paying a premium for this so big one 20%
Asset heavy businesses trade on a price to book not a P ratio but a price to book so banks
Insurance companies oil companies
Cable company gold mining companies, right? So if you look at banks for example
They'll probably trade in about a 1 to 2 times price to book and it bases it comes down to their operational efficiency and what they have
If you look at oil companies, they may trade in a 2 to 3 times a gold company might like a bear at gold or new
Mott might trade in a 3 times price to book why because they have gold in the ground gold will be worth more in the future
And then they have operational efficiency
So the value of this company should probably be at least a 3 times book value
Because Bitcoin is more explosive than than gold is number one
But also you can back it down into a mathematical formula based off the leverage that they're that they have and he has it on the sheet there
So I've had a mini conversation with Michael sailor he believes three should be the floor the price to book right
We should be should be about a 3 and we can get into the math of as that as why that is so right now. It's at 1.2
Micro strategy or or strategy is on pace to have a million Bitcoin
They're on pace to have that I'm guessing before the end of the decade
They'll have a million Bitcoin and I believe within the next
That's a fifth right and I believe in the next six to seven years Bitcoin's a million dollars
So you take a million dollar Bitcoin times a million Bitcoin that five percent of all Bitcoin that's a trillion
Dollars of book value a trillion and you put a 1.2 times on a trillion put put a two times on a one trillion dollar price to book value
And then see what that does to this are you yourself in strategy. Yeah, and I'm talking I guess I'm talking my book
But really I'm a Bitcoin guy, but um, so we don't know how much the stock will be diluted up until that point
So that's a question mark, but we get for strategy now for Bitcoin. That's a strategy. Right. Yeah, there's nine
There's 19.9 million Bitcoin right now. We're about to have the 20 millionth Bitcoin mind and there's a cap of 21 million
So therefore strategy think of it this way. There's only 21 pristine Michael Jordan rookie cards
They're going to own one of them
And so now when the mining stops and you're at 21 at least in this in this crypto
Suddenly you you now have the supply side pressure on Bitcoin demand when Bitcoin is more broadly demand
Which only helps which only helps strategy? You know, I'm I'm on the same page on what they're doing
Yeah, one out of one out of 21 will be owned by Michael sale and and what he said there is that they told shareholders
They would lean on the preferds and I think that's just we're touching on for a second if you don't mind
So the preferds they've launched strike strife stride and now stretch as TRC
It's the newest addition that they have and I believe it's the most revolutionary product
That's ever hit the market and nobody can most people can't really comprehend what it is
So what he's doing is you're taking a high ball asset like Bitcoin a high beta asset
Over the last three years. It's about a 75% Kagar compound annual growth rate now. It's very volatile
Right, it's very extremely volatile is down 50% right now
But what he's saying sort of like a bank give me money
And I'll give you a dividend off of that and I'll invest the money and I'll make the difference
That's what he's saying right so he's saying hey you give me money all by Bitcoin
I expected to do a 21% Kagar of the next 20 years. That's his projection 21% of the next 20 years you give me money. I'll give you 10
All hold through the volatility
So right now stretches paying 11% or 11.5% it's a so it's a stable yield
I don't know if you know about this, but it's pegged at a hundred okay
So the goal is is they can manipulate the the supply and the yield to keep it pegged at a hundred
So it's like a money market account. I put a hundred dollars in it's always a hundred dollars
But I'm earning 11.5% on it and he's doing that by again scrapping the
scraping the top off of the high ball
Is he keeping eight and a half or is he keeping the difference?
So he expects Bitcoin to do 50% he's going to give you 10. He's going to keep 40
39 of it goes 39 about right and so what he's doing is
Right, obviously the the the Kagar is going down over time
But he believes it's going to be higher than 11 but he can also lower that yield
But just think about this for one second in the United States and Jeff Brian knows he's numbers better than I do in the United States
There's about 28 trillion dollars earning yield
I think there's what seven trillion in money market accounts alone the fixed income market is the largest market in the world
350 trillion dollars and he just asked a simple question how many people have a bank account of course everybody does
How many people would like to earn 10% in their bank account?
Of course everybody would and he's basically paying 11.5% on a bank account on a stable yield
Why is that the largest sector for people that don't understand the underlying demographics the boomers the boomers are older
They don't have time to recover from a market crash and fixed income is their friend in the 1970s and 80s
They used to call it the widows and orphan stocks a GE
Coca-Cola IBM Hilton were like paying the best dividends and if they so when you had a life insurance payout on your father
The broker would say to your mom
We're just going to put these in the dividend stocks and then you're going to keep getting you know this back
And that was a forum that was like
Early fixed income thinking but now fixed income is massive massive all these boomers. Yeah
That's the one last story and then wrap up. So paramount merger could create streaming behemoth
with 200 million subscribers
And if they combine HBO max paramount to challenge netflix which would be would be the plan
Rob is this the update of the uh, uh, uh?
News yes, sir go forward paramount skydans announcing plans to combine paramount plus and HBO max
Just three days ago, HBO's parent company, Warner Brothers Discovery, agreed to be acquired
by Paramount.
CEO David Ellison says the combination will boost their subscriber base to 200 million.
Federal regulators still need to approve that merger.
That's a real number right there, while this has taken place in Paramount, debt to its $79
billion after Warner Brothers deal, no plan to sell cable assets, and Warner Brothers
Discovery CEO Zazlow calls Paramount Pivot, whiplashy as $110 billion dollar deal takes
shape.
So, which clip is this, Rob?
This is about the $79 billion debt.
That's okay.
So, Tom, as we're going through this next phase, do you think there's going to be anything
that's going to prevent this from happening, or it's pretty much Paramount's property
that's it?
Well, if you're listening to Netflix and Ted Sirendos, well, I didn't end up meeting
at the White House, and I think the president had his thumb on the scale, come on, Ted, you
know, that's loser talk.
You didn't get the deal.
You didn't get it done.
Ted said that?
Yeah.
He didn't say thumb on the scale.
He said, they had favor with the White House, they're meeting with the White House.
I don't know what you want me to do.
We were always had our number, this is what we had to do, but Ted is exactly.
You look at his quotes and tell me, does that sound like a guy who is a little bitter and
maybe lost the deal?
Yes, it does.
I haven't seen it to make a real judgment on it.
Can you see?
Is it a clip or is that an article?
It was articles.
Just look at Ted's quote, look at Ted Sirendos' quotes in the last 96 hours.
He didn't meet with the president.
He actually went to the president and was told, I'm sorry, sir, your meeting has been canceled.
Really?
That's correct.
The president canceled the meeting last minute.
Interesting.
He's got a few other bigger things on it.
Shortly after arriving at the White House, so this meeting was canceled.
He's in the waiting room.
I'm sorry, sir.
He's like a coffee.
Yeah.
You can go.
Trump's in the war room.
Sorry.
Things like this, he was saying, was I ever going to meet with Trump?
No, he had a...
You know who they had set him up with?
Suzy Wiles and Pam Bondi.
Well, why don't you talk about your concerns in a federal trade commission with the Attorney
General and Suzy Wiles?
That's what they told them.
And he wasn't going to get the meeting with the president.
And all the media was saying, he's going to the White House.
What does it say, though?
What does it say to you, Tom?
It says that Trump had no desire to really listen, give ear to Netflix.
We can talk about desires and tensions later.
But the president was busy with Iran and planning, and no, I'm not giving you my ear.
Mark, where are you out with this?
Yeah, I mean, I would agree with that.
I mean, Trump made it pretty apparent that he didn't want to be involved in this deal.
You know, it's easy.
I love to put you said that's loser talk.
You know, you want to make excuses for why you didn't get the deal, right?
You're always trying to find the blame.
And so I think that's really what it comes down to.
You know, from an interesting lens, Jeff Park put out this paper, and he called it the
end of the value investor, the death of the value investor and the rise of the ideological
investor.
And he talked about how the Benjamin Graham world, the Warren Buffett world is gone.
Nobody invests on value anymore.
They invest on invest in our ideology.
So Bud Light puts deal in the world.
Wow.
What a point down.
And Cracker Barrel.
Right.
Yeah.
Pro crap.
Jeff Park's amazing.
So he talked about like Sydney, Sydney talks about great genes and then American people
go to the stocks.
And so when I look at this, I like some of the shows on Paramount.
I don't like what Netflix has done.
So for when ideological side to me, you know, that's like, wow, I'm kind of glad that
deal happened.
But I would just say I would say it's loser talk, the deal that they were outbid and
that's kind of all there was to it.
Well, I mean, if you look at the history of Netflix, Obama's, you know, politics,
who's enterprise, you know, you kind of know, no matter how much they try to play politics.
By the way, did Netflix give a million dollars for the inauguration?
I don't know if Netflix was part of, I know Amazon did, I know metadata, I know quite
a few people did, but didn't Netflix participate in that or no?
Can you say did Netflix inauguration?
I don't know if they were.
Remember the time of the inauguration?
It's like everybody went to a Burmitzvah where you didn't like the kid, but you gave his
dad an envelope anyway.
Sure.
But that was kind of like the inauguration.
So inauguration, there's no evidence that Netflix donated a million dollars, reports come
from that other major tech companies, exactly including Amazon meta, open AI, all gave a million
dollar contribution.
So you should have donated.
Well, I mean, you have to realize as crazy as it sounds, these things matter.
They pay attention to it.
They're watching to see, hey, are you going to be a, because it was like, well, no, we want
to play neutral.
We don't want to say that we're on this side or this or that, Amazon did, meta did, Facebook
did, opened it.
You know, it's like, well, Pat, that's exactly the problem.
Pay for play and get rid of it.
Until you get rid of it, both sides are going to be doing it.
Then what do you do?
You set on the sidelines and not say anything.
By the way, Jake Tapper came out and set the following about, you know, CNN will be affected
by paramounts looming takeover of the network.
Rob, is this the clip?
Yes, sir.
Go for it.
Moments ago, Netflix said it is declining to raise its offer for the purchase of Warner
Brothers Studios in HBO, following the Warner Brothers Discovery Board's determination
that paramount, which is not just going for Warner Brothers Studios in HBO, but also the
whole enchilada, including us here at CNN, paramount has submitted a superior offer according
to Warner Brothers Discovery's Board.
As I've noted, Warner Brothers Discovery is the parent company of CNN.
So let's get right to CNN chief media analyst Brian Stelter.
So let's start with.
He's fired up.
Why did Netflix walk away?
Ted Cerandos and others in Netflix made it very clear.
They really wanted Warner Brothers Studios and they really wanted HBO.
They didn't want you in this corporate tug of war.
It seems Netflix has suddenly let go of the rope.
There's a lot, of course, that could still happen here, but the big news this afternoon
is that paramount suddenly is in a much stronger position to take over CNN and the rest
of the Warner Brothers Discovery company, which includes HBO and the Warner Brothers
that are right there.
So they asked insiders at CNN, CNN insider told Fox News Digital, which is kind of weird,
but CNN insider told Fox News Digital, the mood is horrific.
People are very upset.
A second CNN insider staffer said a mix of despair, apprehension and curiosity, look,
I think this is a place that has gone through a lot, a lot of mergers in the past decade,
a lot of fresh starts.
The insider said, I think there's an underlying fear of mixing two news divisions.
Who is going to get camp?
Of course, they're going to be worried about it, Tom.
Do you think there is going to be a massive restructure of getting rid of certain people
like shelters?
Yeah.
That's a shelter.
Got fired.
I don't know how he's backed them.
I keep forgetting he's still employed.
So it's the, and then all of a sudden he pops up on the news.
Look, here's what you have, you have to look at these as assets.
Look at those as divisions.
Look at this as product lines.
That is the way the Ellison's look at this.
Look, read all the things when they have talked deep.
Talk has covered it.
Information has covered it.
You can read some of the things that they've said.
And they're looking at this.
They didn't buy this, not to do anything with it.
Netflix didn't want the cable nets.
They were going to be left so that Zaz could put them together in a tracking stock, throw
it to the dogs on the market, and watch it like a cheap spack, start it 10, and slowly
drift to five.
Because there is nothing there.
There is not a lot of, there's no cash being formed, there's no valuing form, cable
subs are going down.
The Ellison's look at it differently.
They're going to say, okay, CNN plus didn't work because old school tried to build a
no TT channel, and they just mishandled it.
They went out and paid all this money to Chris Wallace.
I mean, you and I talked about this, but remember, and I'm like, Pat, if you were running
this, this wouldn't be happening like this.
CNN plus wouldn't have been doing it this way.
There would have been so many other ways to make money on this.
The Ellison's know that, and guess what?
They have been cutting contracts at CNN for two years, and Zaz has been going to the
Allen conference.
We've talked to people, we've seen the quotes, and at the Allen conference, it's like Zaz
walking up and opening his jacket, walking out of the street in New York.
Want to buy a copy?
Watch?
You know, it's like he's trying to sell CNN, and he hasn't been able to get any buyers.
They were trying to spin it off, and strong reports indicated he was reminding people
that, like, Caitlin Collins was on a rookie deal.
She wasn't on one of these legacy 20-year super expensive deals, trying to sell it.
And so, what are the Ellison's going to do?
I think the old guys, like, but we're here and here, Brian, and our friend Tapper, you
know what?
I think that they've had their time.
I think they're going to reconstitute it, and they're like a product.
Tapper has a place.
I don't think, I don't think, I think the people you have to get, if you're building a
new station, you don't get rid of center, left center, right, middle, you don't get rid
of the, there was a girl on CNN there that I was watching this, and I think she works
for CNN.
I don't know if you've seen this or not.
She said a convicted rapist.
Did you see this one that they tried to correct her over and over, and she eventually was
like, she lost her shit.
And CNN's like, listen, you can't talk like that.
I'll find it to show you.
You have to get rid of the people that are saying stuff that makes absolute no sense.
But Jeff, what do you think is going to happen with this?
You think CNN is going to go through a massive, if the deal closes, how nasty thing it's
going to be for CNN?
I think Paramount is going to shut CNN down.
Shut CNN down?
Yeah.
There's no value in it.
I mean, Tom, you just spent five minutes talking about how CNN is valueless.
It has no value.
And the value is not going to suddenly rise in the future.
He's moving away from cable television and cable news.
So you milk what you can out of it.
You take whatever parts are good enough to move to other parts of the division.
And then CNN as a brand, let's face it, completely tarnished.
That's never coming back.
Certainly the people on the right, somebody on the right is never going to watch CNN again.
Other than maybe, you know,
Scott Jennings is a, is a stud Scott does a, he's not going to stay there.
Let's be honest.
He's not going to.
He just resigned his contract.
I think six months ago, he signed a new contract with perhaps, but I, so he did you
was young to show and he told us.
So I think eventually what happens is Paramount says we're done with CNN.
Okay.
So let me push that.
It's not really about CNN.
What do you think a Paramount takes a guy like Scott and says, why don't you run it and
do what they did to CBS by bringing Barry Weissens and Barry from Free Press.
You run it.
Do you think something like that is possible?
Except not in the old legacy media format.
You take somebody like Scott and make him do what you're doing.
You say, we're going to build a social media, new, and new empire around.
We take the talent and build up the infrastructure around it.
You don't use the old legacy framework, which is, it's no longer viable.
Let's be honest.
It's no longer viable.
No, I agree.
I agree.
You know, for me, I get invited to shows.
I'm having dinner with a couple of guys.
They're like, hey, how come you don't come back to our Fox anymore?
I said, dude, why would you, let me tell you what, what I said to them, I don't mind going
to these shows.
But here was my problem.
I said, look, I don't live on TV.
I come to your show.
I know who the audience is and you guys don't cut the clip on YouTube or X.
Why am I coming to your show?
So waste my time to sit on 9.30 to do a four minute clip and then all of a sudden, you're
not posting a clip for two or three days.
I have no interest.
I have better things to do.
So they have to also realize what they need to do to attract the younger people to come
on that you need to get to their audience where their audience is at.
Some that do great.
Let's roll some that don't.
Why would I continue coming back on?
Well, I would say the point that Jeff made, I mean, that model is dead.
The rails are gone.
And what I think about specifically is the network model.
And so where it lives supreme is at the airport or where the doctors are in the hotel lobby.
I was, you know, I had to go get some passport stuff.
I'm sitting in the office and sits there all day and it just runs.
But the network model is mostly dead today.
It's on demand.
I see a show I want.
I watch the show.
I turn it back off.
Or save it for later.
Just in time information, right?
And so I watched what I want to watch.
And then the day of having a network that just runs 24 seven and I sit there and watch
the program.
I mean, it's over.
Yeah, like I said, the old people, they have their TV on all day or at the airport, that's
coming to an end.
The model is dead.
That's the only value that's left is pharmaceutical ads to boomers.
Yeah.
And so it was the, you know, demographic shift boomers start to die off and it needs the
pharmaceuticals.
Exactly.
So then it's the whole model is just dead.
So you milk what you count as seeing not to mention the cost.
I mean, look at this production here is probably a fraction of what CNN would cost
to run.
Absolutely.
Now, it business wise, it doesn't make sense on what they're doing, but it is what
it is.
I'm curious if they're actually going to do what you're talking about, which is shutting
the whole thing down.
And if they do, obviously, you know, it, it'd be a statement to the entire marketplace.
What the hell do they do next?
What do I go next?
What happens to the business model?
You know, do I have to go be independent?
Do you know how hard it is to be independent?
Do you know how many people like these guys?
So today at six o'clock news, we found out that a, you know, I'm being a teleprompter
host.
Yeah.
You do it like this.
Your life.
Oh my God.
Comment section.
Did you hear what they said about me?
They said this.
Fix your tie.
Oh my God.
I don't want to read the comments.
And then you go to all these tough guys.
Ilhan Omar and dear and many of son and they go on Twitter.
They post a bunch of stuff.
What did they do?
Cut the comment section.
Yeah.
Turn the comment section on.
What are you afraid of?
People get called out all the time.
But they can hide the comment section.
I don't want people to say anything.
Just my friends say nice things about me.
This business is nasty.
Yeah.
It is so nasty.
And the part I'm excited about is how that transition is going to take place and how many
of them are going to make it like you guys independently.
You're on your own shows.
You have a few hundred thousand listeners that follow you.
Both of you got almost a million people that follow you.
Your channel wealth is engineered.
Mark Moss.
Reason why we had you on before.
Yeah.
And I like his taste this morning.
We texted each other.
I said, you better wear a gray suit today.
And he followed.
He followed suit.
But I wanted dark shirts.
Yeah.
We had a differentiator.
And then Jeff Snyder's channel Euro Dollar University.
Can you imagine independently?
We're just doing our own thing.
And people are shown up from around the world saying, hey, what does he have to say?
What does she have to say?
What are they talking about?
So if you enjoy what Mark and Jeff had to say, we're going to put the link below.
Go support them.
Subscribe to their channels.
And Tom's got a burger episode that's coming up that I keep being.
It's being posted everywhere at the office.
So when it does come out, folks, we're going to share with you as well.
With that being said, God bless everybody.
Rob, who's tomorrow for the podcast?
Tara Toward.
We have the interview.
Oh, my God.
Guys, you have to watch this.
You're not miss.
This is the funniest podcast I've done.
And some of the stuff he said, I can't even repeat.
I'll just let him tell you.
Go ahead, Rob.
Say you're walking down an alley.
And there's somebody at the end of the alley talking about.
I don't kill you.
You're not there.
I'm just giving him some advice.
It comes up to you.
And they say, I'm a catcher at the road.
Which one are you more afraid of?
Oh, my God.
Did you enjoy doing Iron Man?
I've never seen somebody own a set the way that Robert owned that character.
So I started making calls.
And then it's like, you're not the star of this day.
If you ever talk to me in that way again, I'm going to knock you teeth out.
You said that.
Eight months later, I lose Iron Man.
How could you have done it differently?
Just let it pass.
Shouldn't you be above the titles?
Well, if I should be above the titles, I would be.
Shouldn't you be with that girl right there?
Yeah.
That was my girl.
Should I wither and despair?
Because a woman be so fair?
Denzel.
He told me.
Look, it's your hands, man.
You're always like this.
All these producers want to do is they try to open your hand so they can put money in it.
But you won't do it.
You're in house.
It's a hook-up culture.
I've dated them, but I never slept with anybody.
You never slept with anybody, man.
No, but...
The healthy mouse still produced about 1500 sperm per heartbeat.
So that desire to empty the storehouse is always there.
The lines you use, I love it.
I'd love to empty my storehouse with you today.
How different is it raising boys versus girls?
Girls are the hardest.
Because men have game.
I watch my daughters now, and I'm scared to death because of the karma.
Because I know the things that I did to women.
So I have to make sure none of this stuff is around and mind you.
I didn't masturbate until I was 25 years old.
I had them remove the television out of the room of the hotel.
Because I couldn't stop.
I couldn't stop.
I kept watching it.
Wow, I'm gonna have to watch.
No, no, by the way, this is...
I couldn't stop laughing with the stuff he was saying.
It was none of the typical math stuff.
And the stuff that we talked about last time.
Extremely entertaining with stories he's never shared before.
We talked about Diddy, we talked about Epstein.
We talked about a bunch of different things.
So that comes out tomorrow 9 a.m.
With that being said, take everybody.
We'll see you guys on Friday. God bless.
Bye-bye.
Close your eyes.
Exhale.
Feel your body relax.
Let go of whatever you're carrying today.
Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class.
I got them delivered free from 1-800 contacts.
Oh my gosh, they're so fast.
And...
Breathe.
Oh, sorry.
I almost couldn't breathe when I saw the discount they gave me on my first order.
Oh, sorry.
Namaste.
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