Iran vows retribution for Ayatollah's death

0:00ABC Listen, podcasts, radio, news, music, and more. Good morning. Welcome to AM. It's Monday, the 2nd of March. I'm Melissa Clark in Canberra, coming to you from Nunnerwall Country and acknowledging other custodians. Israel's strikes on Iran have fueled wave after wave of Iranian retaliatory strikes against Israel with warning sirens ringing out across the country every couple of hours. Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran has been on the streets of Tel Aviv. The crunch of glass underfoot is the only noise echoing through Shai Segi's apartment in central Tel Aviv. Like we figure out that we'll see here a mess this morning, but I'm shocked like I did it imagine even like how much damage. One woman died and dozens more were injured when a missile hit a neighboring building on Saturday night. We were out of our parents' house and then like I got messages from friends they recognize

1:01that it's near our apartment and so we saw like videos online and then we recognize it. Out on the street, Aviv is surveying the damage. His son lives a few doors down and is also having to leave. And he wasn't a shelter, didn't go, nothing happened, but we got very big damage. Aviv is reluctant to wade too far into the politics of the current time, but had a fairly straightforward assessment of what's going on. Well, we're in the bait neighborhood, you know, we got dead neighbors, that's all. Soon after the sound of another Iranian missile barrage sending people scrambling to shelters, the screech of war jets and the rumble of interceptor missiles launching to pick the Iranian threat out of the sky, followed by explosions clearly heard from underground shelters. One of those seeking safety in the underground car park of an apartment building is Israeli opposition politician and former deputy chief of staff of the Israeli Defence Forces, Yeh'o Golan.

2:02You're no fan of Benjamin Netanyahu, I think that's safe to say, but do you think he made the right call in launching this attack against Iran now? I think that Netanyahu made, you know, very pompous declarations after the last operation in June. I think it's hard to believe him. So I trust the IDF, I trust the Mossad, I trust our security establishment to finish the job. Iran promising to continue attacking Israel, particularly as Israel continues to attack it. There are fears there's no clear endpoint to this war, which will mean many more sleepless nights right across this region. This is Matthew Doran in Tel Aviv reporting for AM. U.S. President Donald Trump has told American media outlets that Iran's new leadership wants to talk to him and that he's agreed. It comes as the Pentagon confirmed three U.S. service members have been killed in action and five seriously injured after Iran launched retaliatory strikes.

3:03Our North America correspondent, Kamen Gok joined us from Washington earlier. Kamen, the president's been speaking with the U.S. press this morning. What's he said about these talks as he explained exactly who we'd have dialogue with? No, he hasn't. And he said that the people that he will be speaking with are the remaining leadership of Iran. And that's because he told Fox News earlier today that the U.S. strikes with Israel have killed 48 members of the country's leadership, including the Ayatollah. And so when he declared that Iran's leadership does want to talk to him, he said they should have done it sooner. They should have given what was very practical and easier to do sooner. They waited too long. This could be significant because previously the talks had been mediated by Oman and involved U.S. delegations, including the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. But he wouldn't touch on when these discussions could take place. The reporter asked if this would be today or tomorrow and he said I'm not going to tell you.

4:04In the meantime, he said that these strikes will continue throughout the week. And we've seen the first deaths of U.S. service members killed in this conflict. What's been the reaction to those deaths? Well, this is the first time since President Trump returned to the Oval Office that U.S. service members have been killed in a major military operation. We don't know many details, apart from that three service members have died and another five have been seriously wounded. There are some initial, unconfirmed reports that they were based in Kuwait. But this is something the president did signal could happen in his pre-recorded speech. But there is a sense of sorrow, but also outrage amongst Americans, because there is this feeling, particularly amongst Democrats, that these strikes were not out of necessity. There wasn't an immediate threat, but rather this was out of opportunity. And there was a recent Reuters-Ipsos poll that found only one in four Americans approve of the U.S. strikes on Iran. And about half believe that President Trump is too willing to use military force.

5:05Now American soldiers and service members are dead, but there are also many Republicans who support the president's decision and there has also been large celebrations on the streets in America of Iranian diaspora celebrating the death of the Ayatollah. So, Kamen, what's the White House's plan here? Is Donald Trump satisfied with the death of the Ayatollah and other senior figures in the administration? Or does he have greater ambition than that when it comes to looking for regime change on the ground in Iran? That's a great question, and it's on everyone's mind. It'd be a fool to predict what the president has planned. But if we go by what he said publicly, that he won't be having boots on the ground, that it's only air and naval role of the U.S. military, then it's an enormous task and rather potentially unlikely task of the Iranian people who are unarmed to rise up against an organized arm-raised regime, even if it has been decapitated. There are many analysts and Democrats have pointed out that just because you killed the supreme leader doesn't necessarily mean

6:05whoever fills this vacuum will necessarily be better or hold less animosity to America. And there have been increased law enforcement and authorities are on high alert for any retaliatory actions or terrorist attacks domestically. But there are also many Republicans who think that that's not necessarily the problem. And the U.S. has successfully killed a man who for decades wanted to harm America and its interests. Here is a Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on the NBC program Meet the Press. Is there a plan? Does the president have a plan to guarantee that that happens? No, it's not his job or my job to do this. How many times do I have to tell you? Our job is to make sure Iran is no longer the largest state-sponsored terrorism to help the people reconstruct a new government, no boots on the ground. We don't own, you know this idea, you break it, you own it. I don't buy that one bit. It's an America's interest to make sure the Iowa toilet is dead. He's dead. That's Republican Senator Lindsey Graham

7:06and before him, our reporter came and got the ABC's Global Affairs Editor, Laura Tingle, joined me from Dubai a short time ago. I asked her what was behind Iran's decision to attack its neighbors like the United Arab Emirates, not just Israel in its retaliation. Well, it seems like a fairly excellent exercise in self-harm, doesn't it? Because as some of the leaders of these various Gulf countries have been saying, look, basically you're isolating yourself even further. Of course, a lot of these countries had actually been lobbying very hard in Washington and to the Israelis to say, look, don't attack Iran. We don't want the regional conflicts. Just don't do it. It's not going to achieve what you think it might achieve. So it does seem like a really bad exercise in self-harm for the Iranians. I think if you look at the way the now ex-Unlate Supreme Leader operated, he was always one for maximizing the apparent impact and power

8:08and projecting the power of Iran through the region. And I suppose I would see what's happening now as an extension of that. They're basically hitting all of these neighbors around the region in a way that's trying to maximize the disruption and therefore maximize the apparent power of Iran, even when most of the assessments are that it's under a lot of pressure. And it's going to have an effect. What about the effect on the global economy? Because of course, the Middle East's location is one that means events that happened there end up having a rippling effect to the rest of the world. That's right. Well, the most obvious implication is via oil, because essentially now Iran is also attacking Iran, which is absolutely neutral player. And this one was actually brokering peace talks. And it's attacking shipping in the streets of Hormuz, effectively closing and all shutting them down, because our shipers can't get insurance. So that will have an impact on world oil markets.

9:11OPEC plus one producers over the weekend have said that they will offset some of those likely falls by increasing production. We just don't know exactly how much of an impact of a price impact that will have as a result, but it's created a lot of uncertainty at a time when the world doesn't need it. Plus, of course, you can't underestimate the economic effects of the sort of shutdown of air routes across the Middle East. Of course, that's something that Australians are feeling very keenly at the moment, but it's also affecting trade into Africa and Asia. So there are going to be a lot of economic ramifications flowing from this in the short term and the longer term. The ABC's Global Affairs Editor, Laura Tingle there. And I also spoke earlier to a rash-buddle Akhani, who is a research fellow at the Global Development Institute at the University of Manchester. Our rash-buddle Akhani, thank you for speaking to me on AM. Thank you very much for having me. In your view, can the regime survive, given several senior figures have been killed,

10:13not just the Ayatollah? I mean, the loss of how many and top IRG-C generals, like Pakpur, is a massive shock for Iran, but the regime has a plan B or even policy. Currently, a three-man council led by President Tezashkian is managing the transition. However, there is a deep divided between the IRGC and the regular forces, such as Army and the also intelligence service. Wild figures like Zerif or Rohani may try to promote the diplomatic managed translation. The real power reminds with the security, apart from such as IRG-C. So it will depend on whether they can keep the military united or if the system will fracture it from inside. Iranians were already struggling with high inflation and patchy public services to this point. I know there are a lot of communication barriers at the moment, but do we have a sense of what

11:16the mood of Iranian citizens is as those authority figures are trying to reform? I mean, the Iranian people were already facing hyperinflation and the falling economy. This conflict is the final blow, I guess. I mean, we are seeing like 218 increasing in the cost of the living and the collapse of a basic public service. For the average Iranian, this isn't just a political crisis. It isn't a humanitarian disaster. The regime is spending its reminding resources on missile-wide. The people are struggling for bread. This economy is like, this economy is a pain. It is the biggest internal treat to the regime survival. And the people have to live with that and come to the end what happened in the next step, because we don't have any other option in Iran. And at the moment, the situation is very complex inside of the Iran.

12:18Arash Badalakhani, I appreciate your insights. Thanks for speaking to me this morning. Thanks for having me. And Arash Badalakhani is a research fellow at the Global Development Institute at the University of Manchester. The Prime Minister has thrown Australia's support behind the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, while side-stepping questions about whether they breach international law amid retaliatory attacks from Iran against several targets in the Middle East. The federal government has issued do-not-travel warnings for Iran, Qatar, Iraq, Yemen, Syria, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Israel and Lebanon. With registrations open for Australian seeking more information about evacuation flights once airspace reopens, political reporter Sarah Tamebska has more. Here's responsible for orchestrating attacks on Australian soil. His passing will not be mourned. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese expressing no sympathy for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,

13:23referring to two anti-Semitic attacks linked to the IRGC in 2024 as part of the government's justification in supporting the U.S. and Israeli strikes. We support the United States acting to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent Iran from continuing to threaten international peace and security. Shadow Foreign Minister Teto Bryan has a similar position. This is a murderous regime which has sought to penetrate Australia and see terror on our own shores. Foreign Minister Penny Wong says Australia was given no prior warning and was not involved in the attack, but wouldn't be drawn on whether the joint U.S. Australian defence facility at Pine Gap was used or if the strikes breach international law. I leave it for the United States and Israel to speak of the legal basis for the attacks.

14:25What I would say to Australians is that Iran has been a destabilising force in the region for decades. Ben Saul is the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights and counterterrorism. I think international lawyers are united in finding that this is clearly illegal. It's not self-defense. Iran hasn't attacked anybody. It hasn't been authorised by the U.N. Security Council and you can't just use force to prevent some country at some point in the future obtaining a nuclear weapon. Forran, a dad poor from Aussie Ran, whether international law was broken is secondary to Iranians' human rights. Look, of course, laws matter. I think what matters more than law is human life. She argues the Iranian public has been seeking regime change for decades. And the fact that they were ready to give their lives in tens of thousands for this regime to go tells you, you know, the extent that they want this to happen.

15:27In 1953, the CIA and MICX overthrew Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister and instated Shah Muhammad Reza Palavi. Experts say this set off a chain of events that led to the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the rise of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Ben Saul is wary of regime change by force. The key lesson is that foreign interference doesn't work. It doesn't magically create democracies and it's not the job of the United States to go around the world and decide for other peoples who their government should be. That's UN special rapporteur Ben Saul ending Sarah Tamebsk's report. As many people in Iran celebrate what they hope is the end of a brutal regime, Iranians in Australia are relieved and joyful. But there is some concern that the US-Israeli military operation could fail to eliminate what's left of the regime and they're fearful of potential retaliation.

16:31Catherine Gregory reports. Dancing with big smiles on their faces, Australian Iranians in Sydney's Hyde Park celebrate the death of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Humane. It's a sea of red, white and green, the colours of Iran's flag, and a placard saying freedom for Iran and make Iran great again. While in Melbourne, an even bigger crowd of Australian Iranians brave the reign and descend on Federation Square and Parliament House. Australian Iranian Amin Riyazati says he's hopeful for regime change and a secular democracy in Iran. He's encapsulating the mood of many Australian Iranians across the country.

17:32He poor are very, very joyful. Their right word to use is a later. Sarah Rafi is a lawyer and human rights activist and is with the Australian Iranian community organisation. She says Iranians biggest fear, though, is that they'll be unfinished business and the strikes will fail to completely dismantle the regime. They fear a scenario in which pressure begins and then stops, allowing the same actors to re-brand, put on a suit and a tie, adopt the language of reform and quietly rebuild from within. She believes most Iranians want the exiled Crown Prince, where he's our polavi to be a transitional leader since he is an advocate for a secular democracy. Sarah Rafi is clear. Iranians have experienced war and don't want another one, but the strikes are necessary in order to rid the country of the regime. But like many, Sarah Rafi fears retribution. That the regime starts targeting hospitals

18:34schools in order to change their narrative and to present itself as a victim. The regime has put severe restrictions on internet and phone connections, but Surin Edgar, the vice president of the Australian Iranian Community Alliance, says he's had messages from loved ones at home and their joys. He also believes the regime is done. That regime been controlled and led by Ali Harmony. So it's not easy to replace him. They are trying to do that, but it's so difficult for them and it's so difficult for that system. He has faith the US government won't leave until it's completely destroyed. Sarah Rafi points out many Australian Iranians are thankful to the US and Israel for these strikes, and she credits the Australian government for also taking a stance against the regime. But says more could be done. Catherine Gregory reporting, and that's AM for today. Thanks for your company. I'm Melissa Clark.