Iran War Expanding, Khamenei Successor, China Mediates Middle East War

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Some Iranians are fleeing the war on their country.

Our correspondent is meeting them as they reach Turkey.

We'll hear what people are seeing and where they're going to escape the war

that's spreading across the region.

I'm Steve Innscape with Michelle Martin, and this is up first from NPR News.

Iran postponed the morning ceremony for its supreme leader

as attacks continue on the Capitol Tehran.

Clerics are choosing who will lead Iran in the middle of a war,

and many AIs are on the former leader's son.

And China says it's sending a special envoy to the Middle East,

as Beijing opens its two sessions meeting where leaders set priorities for the year.

It's China trying to position itself as a mediator or protecting its oil interests.

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Israel and the U.S. are continuing to hit Iran on the sixth day of the war.

Iran says the United States will quote bitterly regret torpedoing one of its warships

yesterday in the Indian Ocean in an attack that killed at least 87 people.

Here's a few updates overnight.

Israel has tracked multiple incoming missile attacks.

Air sirens blared overnight and into this morning in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

All this is the war continues to spread across the region.

Israeli attacks continue in Lebanon and Iranian strikes are causing turmoil in numerous

Gulf countries.

And PR's Ruth Sherlock is in Turkey close to the border with Iran where she's been speaking

with Iranians coming across the border and she's with us now Ruth alone.

Thanks so much for joining us.

Hi, good morning.

So as we said, you've been on the border with Iran. Tell us what you're seeing.

Well Michelle, people are coming out traumatized.

You know, Iran isn't letting Western journalists into the country,

but speaking with Iranians here on the border,

it really drives home the horror of this war for civilians.

Everyone was too scared to give their name,

as speaking with Western media has gotten people arrested in Iran.

This man talked about his journey out.

It's a little hard to hear, but he's saying there was bombing through the night as he

children killed in Iran.

He says he and his family have come to Turkey for shelter.

I also spoke with a doctor from Tehran who described the terror of being engulfed in smoke

and feeling the backblast of a strike that hit close to her car on the journey out.

She says she's also witnessing many, many civilian casualties from these strikes.

You know, these are densely packed neighborhoods and she says residential buildings are also getting

hit. She's been treating civilians with horrific injuries, she says.

The Iranian Ministry of Health records 926 people killed in just these few days.

And despite all this, I saw a large number of people heading back into Iran.

Communications are largely down in the country and many people just said that they couldn't cope

with not knowing if their families were okay and would rather be with them despite the danger.

Wow, that's interesting. So tell us more about what these people who are heading back are heading

back into. Well, there's continued heavy bombardment by Israeli and U.S. forces on Tehran

and other cities. And another thing we're watching closely is Iran's western border with Iraq.

Turkey and Iran are responding to reports that Iranian Kurdish militias have consulted with

the United States in recent days about possible attacks against the Iranian regime.

Turkey is saying it's watching closely Iran saying it's targeting what it called

separatist militias in that region that it's said intended to act against security forces there.

Okay, what it called separatist militias, I see. So beyond Iran, there are also still major

concerns about the Gulf region being drawn into the conflict. That's right. You know, Iran saying

to the Gulf countries that it strikes against them, they're actually aimed at hitting U.S.

military bases and assets there. But the attacks are having this crippling effect on

Gulf economies and they've paralyzed the energy sector. Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed

Al-Tani told Iran's Foreign Minister yesterday, Qatar prefers diplomacy, but this aggression he

said cannot go unanswered. Meanwhile, there's also reports of a new attack off the coast of Q8.

And this would mean an expansion of the area where commercial shipping is also in danger.

That is Ruth Shilak, near Turkey's border with Iran. Ruth, thank you so much.

Thank you so much. And we have some information about two more U.S. Army reservists killed in

Sunday's Iranian drone strike. 54-year-old chief warrant officer Robert Marzan of Sacramento,

California. And 45-year-old Major Jeffrey O'Brien of Waki, Iowa. They are among six U.S.

service members killed in the attack in Q8.

In Iran, a panel of clerics is deciding who will replace Ayatoll Ali Kaminahi,

who was killed by an Israeli air strike at the start of the war.

Whoever is chosen will sit atop a complicated governing system. There's an elected president,

there's a legislature, there's a lot of security agencies, a regular army,

and a whole separate army called the Revolutionary Guard. But if you put that government

on a chart, all the lines of power ultimately would run back to that Supreme Leader.

And here International Affairs correspondent Jackie Northam is with us now to tell us more about

this. Jackie, good morning to you. Morning, Michelle. So who are some other front runners for

Supreme Leader of Iran? Well, there are four main front runners that the 88-member panel of clerics

will consider. And the panel is having to meet virtually because the Israelis bombed the building

where they were supposed to meet. Anyway, there's quite a mix. There are basically two main routes

they can take. First, the non-dynastic route, we can call it, with Ali Reza Arafi. And he's a

cleric, very prominent in Iran's religious establishment, and considered a hardliner.

There's also Hassan Ruhani, a moderate and former president of Iran. And then we have the family

route where there is Hassan Homeni, who's the grandson of the founding father of the Islamic Republic,

Ayatollah Homeni. And he's seen as a relative moderate. Finally, Michelle, there's Mojdabah

Homeni. And he is the 56-year-old son of Ayatollah Homeni. And he's considered the leading contender

to become Iran's next Supreme Leader. So tell us more about him if you would. Mojdabah Homeni

has been described to me as kind of an unknown quantity. Someone in the background,

he is considered a hardliner who's closely associated with a violent crackdown on protesters

around in 2009. Now, Mojdabah has important connections of all the candidates. He's the one

who is closest to the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC. He's also well connected

in his late father's office. And these are the two most important parts of the regime.

If they support him, there's a good chance he'll be Iran's next leader.

So if Mojdabah Homeni is chosen, will that be seen as a signal that the regime wants continuity

even as this war is ongoing? It would. Mojdabah would be seen as a status quo candidate.

But you know, Al-As I spoke with, say, the current system can't be sustained. Iran is weakened from

war and widespread protests. Its economy is battered. And it needs to transform if it wants to

have legitimacy. The other thing is the next Supreme Leader will not wield as much power as Homeni

during his nearly 40 years in power. The revolutionary guards have gained enormous power

over Iran's economy and its military. Jonathan Panakoff, Director of the Atlantic Council's

Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, says a new Supreme Leader will be deferential

to the revolutionary guards. Here he is. Where we end up in a situation in which it's

senior officials from the guards fundamentally running the country and we end up in what's

closer to a military dictatorship with a fig leaf to a religious Supreme Leader,

then we do with the Supreme Leader, like Ayatollah Khamenei, who's actually calling the shots

and has the final work. And yet, you know, when the late Ayatollah Khamenei was chosen as

Supreme Leader, he was considered weak and pliable. But, you know, he proved to be cunning and

ruthless and went on to become one of the most powerful leaders in the Middle East. That is,

NPR International Affairs correspondent Jackie Norther. Jackie, thank you. Thank you.

As the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran expands, China is stepping into the crisis with a high

profile diplomatic move. Beijing is sending a special envoy to the Middle East to help

mediate. We're joined by NPR's China correspondent Jennifer Pak in Beijing for the latest

Jennifer Good morning. Good morning. Could you just start by telling us who this envoy is and what

we know about his assignment? Well, China today named the envoy at sending to the Middle East. His

name is Jijun and he's been serving as an envoy to the region since 2019. But the foreign ministry

didn't provide more details or say specifically which countries he would be visiting. Now,

there are two reasons why China is stepping in. The first is strategic. China has economic

interests in the Middle East. It gets part of its oil supply from the region. Here's a Chinese

politics expert at the National University of Singapore, Jiayin Chong. They have this long-standing

relationship with the Iranian government. They've invested a lot in Iran. Part of that arrangement

has to do with getting oil and gas out of Iran. And that's not just from Iran. China also buys

oil and gas from the rest of the region, he says. And now the conflict is affecting that supply.

The second reason is a diplomatic one. This is a real opportunity for China to portray itself as a

quote force for peace. It has been urging all sides to stop military operations and return to

the negotiating table. Do we have any sense of whether that cooperation with Iran extends to

military assistance? As so far know, and it does raise the question of whether other countries would

think it's worthwhile to enter into a strategic partnership with China, given that it doesn't

extend to security protection. Analyst Chong offers a different interpretation. China is trying to

feel its way around being a great power again and a great power in the contemporary period.

The big question, he says, is what this envoy can realistically achieve? Given that China is not

impartial in this, China is way more closely aligned with Iran than with either the US or Israel.

And Jennifer, how is Beijing making sense of the events of the last few days?

Well, Beijing is clearly uncomfortable with what's happening in the Middle East and elsewhere.

For example, Venezuela earlier this year, especially since from Beijing's standpoint,

the Trump administration has been freely talking about regime change and taking out political

leaders unilaterally. It's a sign for the Chinese that the world is getting more volatile.

So at an important political meeting just this morning, Premier Li Chang talked about external

challenges. He says, multilateralism and free trade are under severe threat. For China,

this uncertainty is coming at a bad time. Its economic growth is at its lowest in decades,

and this morning, Li Chang also set a goal for China's annual growth of four and a half to five percent.

So China is clearly preparing its population for slower growth and more uncertainty ahead.

So how is China preparing for this uncertainty?

Well, China says it will continue to invest and modernize its military for deterrence.

It has increased its defense budget by 7 percent compared to last year.

Also, China is doubling down on industrial manufacturing and tech innovation.

All of this is about self-reliance, so that when the USA

imposes export controls on American high-tech products, China might hurt less.

That is, and for us Jennifer Pak in Beijing.

Jennifer, thank you.

Thank you.

And that's up first for Thursday, March 5th. I'm Michelle Martin.

And I'm Steve Innscape. Today's up first was edited by Hannah Block, Miguel Macias,

James Hyder, Tina Criah, Muhammad El Bardisi, and Alice Wolfley.

It was produced by Ziat Bunch and Ben Abrams. Our director is Christopher Thomas.

We get engineering support from Nisha Heinus, and our technical director is Carly Strange.

Either Carly, our deputy executive producer is Kelly Dickens. Join us tomorrow.

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