Iran War Seen Causing Prolonged Pain on Energy Prices

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Mike McLean, Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence.

Mike, this is such an unknown scenario here as to how the war in Iran will play out in the

coming days and weeks we could wake up tomorrow on President Trump for whatever reason

decides to claim victory and bring everybody home here.

If that were to happen, how do you think energy prices would

ebb here and pull back when they get back to pre-war levels?

Would it take, how quickly would it happen?

Or are we at maybe a little bit higher levels here just given the

damage that's been done and maybe the tension levels that still remain?

I think the crude oil peak so far this year near $120 a barrel on WTI paw will go down in

history similar to 147 in 2008 and 130 in 2022. Right now on the week WTI crude oil is down almost

4% and part of that is it's switching contracts. It's gone from the April to the May.

If you go out to December it's down to $78 a barrel. Why is December important?

It's going to be front month right before the midterms.

So the scenario you mentioned I think is very unlikely. Right now we're at the stage of

trying to produce capitulation for Iran where they have no more ability to create offensive

issues in the Gulf. It's happening. The key thing I think people are underestimating is

there's some significant forces. They're not only U.S. President Trump, U.S. military

is really military but also is really military intelligence. When people talk about boots on

the ground they're there. I just things I've read. So I'm pretty sure the crude oil market's already

saying this weekend if we wake up Monday morning there's some not any major incidents of

you know we see burning tankers crude oil is going to have a problem and continue to go lower.

Hey Mike the U.S. other countries they're taking steps to tame prices right we're talking about

the release of strategic reserves. From your history following this and tracking this market

is would this I mean is this just a band-aid to put it that way? I think that's a good way to

describe it. The first thing I thought of when I heard that is it's a sign that yes oops we

made a mistake the hormones the straight is closed. Now that is enduring for now but it just

means they're going to pound harder and harder and harder on this offensive capability of Iran.

I think that's what's happening now they're bringing in more and more and more offensive capabilities

to just stop it. Now if they can't that's a major failure but right now we're seeing the markets are

in a saying yeah a lot of these attacks are slowing down the worst is probably over and a key

indicator that is collapsing gold I think it's looking forward to a safer world. What are the

futures markets telling us Mike today about the oil market? There's a major burden to go higher like

I mentioned if you go at every future contract is in backwardation which means it's lower. So I'm

focusing on the US why the US is the largest energy producer in a net exporter it's the one that

matters that's what shifted from the last 10 20 years and US is a complete upper hand but we're

also seeing the price of gasoline went to four hours a gallon. Remember what happened in 2008 when

that happened? It's accelerates recession so what we're seeing right now is a global energy crisis

ticking over the straighter hormones might be somewhat safe within a few days it's already getting

safe for crudals anticipating and what I point out is now we're seeing collapsing industrial metals

which I think that's a sign that this is a global recessionary trajectory on the back of the spike

and the shock of the straight being closed. Hey Mike wave about 30 seconds left or so you mentioned

gold so I want you to kind of expand on that a little bit I mean it's seen as this haven

heading for the biggest weekly loss in six years I mean what does gold see kind of moving forward?

Gold predicted this it went up too much last year it warned us something might be happened so

by the rumor self effect the significance is gold was a store value but right now it's almost

2.4 times the volatility of the S&P 500 it's now a speculative risk asset in the late days of

a bear mark and I think it's more like it'll go down to four thousand dollars in an ounce.

All right Mike McLean thank you so much we appreciate that Mike McLean he is the senior

commodity strategist for Bloomberg intelligence he's based down there in Miami Beach Florida and

if you care about that part of the world sunny and 80 as far as the eye can see Mike McLean the smartest

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you're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast catch us live weekday after news from

7 to 10 a.m. Eastern listen on apple car play and android auto with the Bloomberg business app

or watch us live on youtube welcome cold smeed into our studio cold smeed is the CEO and portfolio

manager smeed capital manager based out there in phoenix your summer has already started in phoenix

right i've seen some crazy temperatures it has in fact i need to invite both of you to come

out breakfast with us like tom keen did a few weeks ago here yep before he went off to his you know

San Francisco Giants spring training day that afternoon so that's an open welcome by the way

100 percent we are we already we're gonna i think we're gonna hit a hundred degree temperature

this next week wow early as we've seen for a while um that being said as i walk around a cold

New York yep i'm not exactly sad about that so it's bad for ski season but it is what it is

it is uh and it's a dry heat cold what's the conversation you're having with your clients

these days the last three weeks have kind of thrown that black swan event out there and i'm

sure it's got a lot of volatility into the marketplace it's probably your phones might be

bringing a little bit more than than usual what's the message you're bringing to your clients

yeah so i sort of would say um you know you were just mentioning the timeline of what's going on

in this conflict um let's just go back to 1973 yom Kapoor war lasted 30 days and yet the effects

of it were seen throughout the rest of the decade right so i say that because um i think that

the idea was this is going to be like venny aka venizuela yep we're gonna come in it's gonna be

strategic super surgical this has been everything but that okay and um therefore what we're in

is a longer term conflict and what are we seeing we are seeing longer term problems arise okay um

you're calling into buy if they go out to the spot market and oil right now they're not going to

see that you know price on brand they're looking at 170 the highest price ever paid in the history

of the world yep okay and so i point that out because um just think of what let's go back one

year ago we're sitting there staring at the tear of tantrum we're watching economic sickle

cowty get bludgeoned opec plus is increasing supply it's going to be a nightmare for the oil

business because we might have a recession yada yada yada and here we are less than 12 months later

and that seems to be a place to be and guess where investors are not they do not own the energy

assets uh to quote the money python the energy business started off as too smearly a flesh wound

at 3% and now investors are having to ask the question what should i be doing what am i doing

differently but here's what's weird markets are very slow to adapt to this i mean at the first

week this oil stocks didn't even go up okay you wake up to week two there's a marginal bid we three

there's more of a bid um this looks like it's going to just continue on but the former trade the former

great glorious mania in america the a i capex hyper scaling game that year is over well that all

that said i mean where are their opportunities where they're where's their value yeah i you know

uh if you want to beat bobby fisher you got to play him in any game but chess okay chess in in the

american stock market is big cap tech you can't play that game okay um go look at all the quality

growth managers that head out in the sass businesses the last couple years thinking that that's

the way they'll beat the game of chess and they found out they are actually playing chess

been pretty nightmare you know the last six months so i say that because ultimately you know we

have found to be more attractive in economic cyclical businesses so like think of housing

mall reats um we're in a world today we're in 1973 we did not have energy security

we are the largest oil producing nation the world we have this neighbor to the north that we

have a lot of security with who's a large oil producing nation as well um we look at the tarps

at the oil stands in canada we are largest holding across our book is synovus okay synovus

is a thirty plus year asset um you know they bought out meg last year it's a great business the

own we think it's very attractive price but what's going on right now is if you look at the

returns on invested capital growing per day at these prices these oil companies are producing

higher returns on capital than sass businesses then software businesses then all the asset

light players the world so what's perverse is why are the some of the most capital intensive

businesses in the world producing the highest returns on capital and yet investors are

still treating the asset light businesses like they're producing great returns even though like

I just said we know that in this cap ex game the cash returns are declining rapidly in these hyper

scalars aside from energy which you guys have a couple of names including APA uh in this synovus

you mentioned yep what we're else what other sector maybe screens will offer you guys these days

yeah um the banking world looks attractive because people are overplaying fears okay um I don't

doubt for one second that institutions and a bunch of ultra high net worth people bought some assets

they shouldn't have in places like private credit and other alternatives that is a totally plausible

theory the idea that that is the average american and the average american household um if you

if you go look uh if you go look at the fed reserves uh reports on household net worth um equities

percentage of household assets is the highest it's ever been right now 54 percent okay now what's

more normal is real estate is bigger in that because your home is typically your largest asset and

that's very typical for most americans that retire um weird a point where stocks have become bigger

than real estate and ultimately what it means is we're probably in an era where uh your home

out punches your stocks and the problems of these products that were sold to institutions and

high net worth folks you know the private credit type stuff that is going to be contained in wealthy

and institutional arenas but the average american doesn't take risk in that and so the idea that

there's some massive spillover economy and therefore banking is going to be really terrible we just

don't see proof to that theory how are you talking to your your clients and this this kind of

climate that we're living with what kind of questions do they have for you uh disbelief that

the folks that own energy might win the game i mean disbelief where it's like gosh you know

the main thing we've been talking about with investors is like listen this is a very concentrated

narrow world and if the future is unknown which it always is unknown um are we all playing the

wrong game okay and ultimately what's happened the last 12 months is people went from being like i

know i should probably get away from some of this stuff and diversify away and if you look at our

portfolio we're diversifier whether you're talking us or not us and our portfolios we just we tend

on things that people don't um and now people are actually asking that question for the first time

why should i look at this because if this is a longer term problem maybe i haven't been doing what

i should but again we're we're nowhere near money moving based on that cool thanks

much for coming in here we appreciate a cold swing he's the CEO and portfolio manager of

speed capital management stay with us more from bloomberg surveillance coming up after this

you're listening to the bloomberg surveillance podcast catch us live weekday afternoons from

seven to 10 a.m. Eastern listen on apple car play and android auto with the bloomberg business app

or watch us live on youtube caron man of white president and fixed income investment director she's

it federated her mishia is a proud nitley lion from Penn State University that's the highlight

for me i think caron um let's step back here how are you kind of rethinking um you're fixed

income strategy here and what does it become a more turbulent world over the last three to four

weeks well good morning and thank you definitely more volatility in fixed income markets and two

you know reset that range or put it into context we entered the conflict at the end of February

with yields really at the lower end of that range as you said we had pushed down below 4%

on that guiding star for us long term fixed income managers the 10 year rate and i think we

entered the conflict a little bit low you know that was a rate that priced in significant movement

from the federal reserve likely on the heels of kevin wash being nominated as the new head

and then we got into a more reasonable trading range but what we saw particularly yesterday and

through this week is a significant repricing of expectations of what the federal reserve can do

or what they will do with the front end of the curve so tens pushing a little bit higher but really

that two year rate going even higher than that and flattening yield curves so here we see the

bond market fighting off its eternal foe inflation and it's a good time for investors to look more

to coupon clipping or income rather than the price appreciation or diversification of the

bond market Karen you mentioned the Fed i mean the composition of it continues of course to be

interesting um is your house for you still for for one ease this year has that changed

it hasn't changed well moderated since the beginning of the year we went into the beginning of

the year looking for maybe two cuts expected maybe one in June then one in September through

December with the behavior of the markets and some of that is health Lisa it is a relatively

resilient and stable economy i describe it as equilibrium equilibrium is not necessarily

comfortable but now with inflation coming back in with the spike in oil prices extreme sensitivity

around the length of this conflict we are now expecting one and perhaps that would be later in

the year so you hear you hear that hedging in in my voice and in that that position it's a little

bit wait and see high yield market what's your view there are you you have credit concerns there

in the high yield market or do you feel like um the risk reward is is worth it here i would say the

latter Paul it's not so much a recharacterize it we're more sensitive to valuation with high yield

still we have seen a nice orderly widening of spreads there but we are not at our target to lift

out of the underweight position where we've been we would like to see spreads closer to

400 basis points on a pretty stabilized basis point sorry stabilized point not just a flash in the

pan we are above 300 but still waiting to see more value there the companies are largely doing fine

they would not have the ability to move out of non investment grade to investment grade the

pricing power isn't there the ability to grow volumes you know they can't correct what made them

non investment grade are analysts there think results are largely fine to in line nothing to make

them overly worried but nothing to make them overly excited that they can you know eclipse that

non investment grade rating Karen I'm looking through your notes here you talk about private credit

um being in the headlines of course does it have the characteristics to build toward this

systemic crisis that that we've been hearing we don't think so and we we took a look at what has

caused systemic crisis in the past and oftentimes yes you do see an increase in defaults and we look

at defaults by number and also by dollar amount but you really need leverage in the system in order

to become a systemic event like long term capital management the late 80s or the great financial

crisis but we all know that there's a lot of market value and road between systemic crisis

and you know optimal markets and I think what we're really seeing and as many of your speakers have

said over the morning is a recalibration of liquidity and pricing around liquidity these are loans

to middle market companies that are very necessary and we're getting a lot of our information from

Bloomberg on these private markets and from media Roger Ferguson wrote a great piece in the

financial times where he characterized these loans and how private credit came about but what

happened as with the success of private credit with the attractive yields it began to be sold

down into retail channels the retail vehicles provide for greater liquidity or faster liquidity

than the tenor of the underlying loans those are mostly three to five years so when you have a

liquidity mismatch and then you have something in the headlines that was sold for being attractive

and something that you needed to have in the portfolio and then you're seeing in the headlines

that you need to get out you're just having a mismatch in the vehicle versus the purchaser.

Karen my good friends on the debt capital markets desks across Wall Street are having a heck of a

year here the supply has been really really heavy how's the market been receiving this supply it's been

received extraordinarily well we went into the year knowing that we would see significant new supply

from merger and activity funding and then that we would also see the hyperscalers coming to the

market they've already done more than half of their expected supply but the supply is coming in

and because the yield and the income it's that known variable are attractive it seems that investors

are flocking to investment grade corporate bonds for that known income that little bit of spread

over the US Treasury and enjoying that rather than taking excessive duration risk so we've seen

again a little bit of widening we've gone out from the high 70s for the investment grade OAS

until now we're into the mid 90s or so but we see that as a restoration of value

in a time where selection security selection can begin to matter so one of our big themes

in houses while we have a top down framework we are bottom up fundamental reviewers of credit

day in day out we speak to discernment and discipline around valuation of course we're cognizant

of themes but as we say in house it wasn't likely that all software companies were great

going into the beginning of this year and it's similarly just as likely that they are not all

going to fail just because the tide has turned thanks so much appreciate it man advice president

and fixing income investment director for federator kermi stay with us more from Bloomberg

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you're listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast catch us live week day after

news from seven to 10 a.m. Eastern listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app

or watch us live on YouTube Rebecca Wallsor joins us here president C of Wallsor wealth management

Rebecca thanks so much for joining us here in studio crazy times out there crazy lots of volatility

what are the conversations I'm sure your phones are going off the hook from your clients what's

the conversation you're having through I mean we've been big commodity bugs for the last since

2020 pandemic so I think a lot of people are really concerned about the routing down again

of precious metals specifically golden silver and so that's definitely something that we have to

explain to them this is a three-part attack on gold first of all there's profit taking because it's

you know obviously done extremely well second of all I think it's a panic selling because you see

high volume on GLD ETF and people are really getting out fast and then also you have a rotation out

because now that we don't expect interest rates to potentially be cut or cut as much or as soon

people are looking for higher yield than maybe a non yielding asset so it's really a three-part attack

and we have to just stay the course because nothing fundamentally actually everything has actually

increased the likelihood of price increases in actual precious metals it's just that they're not

going to happen in the short term right now there's a lot of consternation of moving moving capital

around but when you look at the private credit situation the liquidity crisis is another thing I

think private credit and liquidity raises are also having an impact on selling off and getting

out of gold and silver so we just have to stay the course and remember that we are not in it for

these short term price actions were really in it because fundamentally we believe that we are at

the beginning stages of a transition of currency from fiat to stablecoin to the blockchain and

and ultimately there's going to be a tether to some kind of hard assets and we believe metals will

be that well so that's it has gold become more volatile than equities I mean I wouldn't say more

volatile than equities but certainly in this year in 2026 we've seen the most volatility and we

know it's a the worst trading week for it in six years so from that perspective it's we're

seeing a lot more volatile and we're seeing the act like a risk on asset which we're not used to

so that's why the consternation that's why we have to explain and just take a breath and remember

that you know it's really the you know the the wrong move to act emotionally and to remember the

fundamentals and the technicals and why we're here and something so where are you asking or

where you telling your clients they should be focusing here is it is it US equities non-US equities

should we be looking at fixed income where's because there is a lot of cross currents out there

yes absolutely palm so where's the area focused for you guys well I think right now the global world

has got some major issues not geopolitical war aside with a ryan if you look at

krachar energy if you look at the the actual damage that has happened to liquefied natural gas

production the straight being closed you're looking at for the first time really a three part

bifurcation of energy price Asia being really the worst you know then European the second worst

and the us of course being energy independent we are a little bit insulated but so the the bottom

line is people are trying to figure out what is this going to be it's going to take some time I will

note that the this administration is trying to reduce bank capital requirements and reserve

requirements to make things a little bit easier credit that will obviously be good for the rest

of 2000 companies and and so if you look at that in the framework of the rest of the world that's

not already talking you're already talking about rate hikes you know and all of this inflationary

pressure from energy costs I mean Europe has got a massive energy crisis that's approaching very

quickly so I'm going to say no on on out going outside of the United States for now and then we'll

see if there's pockets of opportunity that we can maybe pick up on and and dissect but right now

things are extremely fast moving very fluid and we just have to remain calm and remember especially

in a time of war so we've got the kind of the confluence of all the convergence of all things Paul

we've got literally you know energy crisis war blockchain fiat bank reserves I mean it's just I

mean could we add anything else and I don't even say that because as soon as I say it something

else is going to come into the mix but yeah I mean this is a literally crazy time and so therefore

calm a cooler heads will prevail and we even talk tariffs trade I mean that's exactly that's

the one thing missing from that so all this uncertainty that you're talking about I mean does it

usually scream recession or stagnation I mean what's your take with it I mean I definitely do

think that there is going to be with the energy crisis alone with with just going back to

Caution and you saying three to five years to even fix the one plant that are up produces 17%

of the world's global LNG I mean those kinds of things definitely have an impact and will be

recessionary and nature drop creation and as a positive right energy prices going up I have

some other inflationary aspects that help with some kinds of investments right but overall this

is a time I think we'll look back you know you look at the S&P 500 chart you can see calm you can

see GFC will 2026 be the beginning of something new that we can really see a breakout towards a new

a new way forward and I do think with you add in there you know blockchain and stablecoin which is

really under congress with the right with the clarity act that we got the genius like last year

you've got a lot of changing parts and so this is going to be the beginning of something that is

new I believe yeah so how are you what is your strategy your your advice to your clients as it

relates to crypto broadly defined yeah well we do believe crypto is a risk on asset we haven't

had enough of a use case to prove that even through a recession it will do well it's like I mean

we'll talk them specifically about that coin so definitely see it as a risk on but we do see that

stablecoin is the future transaction system and so we want to be on the frontier of that we want

to be on the forefront of that and not be afraid of it I would say that overall we're going to look

for pockets of picking up a price action on obviously the energy front for sure we've really kind

of moved our portfolio from commodities and specifically precious metals more to oil starting

October of last year we pair down and moved over to energy so we've enjoyed really some nice

price action to the upside but we still truly believe that the the system the global world system

as we move away from fiat will be anchored in tether too hard precious assets precious metals

specifically so we're going to continue to have a gold and silver perspective in our portfolios

I'm curious what areas will you be looking to when when things sort of calm down calm down

is we're going to be look I mean obviously AI everything right AI disruption software as a service

obviously has been a really big problem for sure private credit being invested in software and

you know private credit is really interesting because it's tied into our banking system

in the sense of all of the credit lines and I did a analysis of the the top our top you know

six banks and how much credit lines they have outstanding to private credit which might be drawing

down because there's so many redemptions blue alcohol pausing redemptions black stones be

cred basically in last quarter had in 8% redemptions their largest quarterly redemption on record

so we're we're expecting this volatility but to that point on the other end of it what are the new

AI technologies that are going to be kind of pushing aside the as the old software route I mean

I don't I don't believe that it's going to happen tomorrow but it is going to happen eventually so

the route was oversold we didn't need to see that much consternation in the software market

but it is a reality in the future so is it 60 months is it 36 months is it next year not sure

it's not tomorrow it's not probably this year especially with all of this this is obviously

the world is going to be focused on energy and pricing that and AI will continue to go on but you

know I do think that anthropic maybe won't be a little too just rocked as much as we as it has

been able to do this year very good Rebecca thank you so much thank you so much thank you

she's the president and you have Walter wealth management joining us live here in our Bloomberg

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