Iran War: Trump's Endgame, Economic Fallout, and Polymarket Profiteering

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2:01And I'm Scott Callaway. So I just flew in from San Francisco and boi are my arms tired. I've heard that track before. I know. I don't know why I keep doing the night flights things. I just keep. I think I'm getting too old for it. But I had, as you can hear, everybody. I have a cold and I actually was there to interview Gavin Newsom for his book Young Man in a Hurry, which is now, I guess, Old Man in a Hurry. And so I went in to do that. And it was actually a fantastic interview. We'll talk about it. That's got a lot of news. Yeah. I did. I made a lot. I'm a news maker, my friend. And I just just be clear to give you insight into our relationship. He there was someone put out of things saying that he was in support of, he changes tone or he's in support of regime change. And I wrote smart and you berated me. So why don't you give us. Not publicly. We're going to talk about it. We're going to work. Let's we'll get into it. I didn't berate you. It just was inaccurately depicting the interview I had just done. Because I wrote, because I wrote the word smart.

3:01No, because you were tweeting an inaccurate report. That's all. What was it? What about the inaccurate report? I don't know. It just was weird. It was weird because it was so not what he said. And so it just annoys me, it just annoys me. I mean, I definitely definitely made a lot of news in that interview. By the way, we talked, we talked a lot about his book, which was interesting. But he's definitely not running for president, because no president ever puts out a book to further around the world. I know. Well, no, he kept saying that he wasn't sure. It was really funny. And then right afterwards, it's actually, I like the book. It's gotten some kind of reviews. But I think they've just decided who we is. And are reviewing it based on sort of that anxious, jody slick image versus a lot of stuff that he's done that's bright. He's a very complex person like yourself. God, Galloway. I think it's actually pretty authentic. Yeah, let me just characterize this discussion. The book I really like. I have to say. And I think I found out a lot of things about him that he didn't know his about his mother. I knew a little bit about his mother's assisted suicide, but it was really interesting to talk about a lot about his own struggles.

4:05And not it wasn't a dyslexia part. We didn't talk a lot about that. But about I didn't know his wife had had a miscarriage, for example. They have his four kids. He almost had five. It was there's a lot in there. There was a lot in there. One of the things that struck me, which brings me back to you, which I know how you like that is he was the wife. He was the son of a single mom who was not wealthy. And he has a lot of resonances to your with your mom. You know what I mean? Like your story with your single mom who was struggling, father who was distant. And who he desperately wanted to be with. It was really it reminded me a lot of you actually. I think people underestimate do some and I think they underestimate DeSantis and Rubio. But I think right now, you know, I think governor knew some hands down is the is the leading candidate on the democratic side. And not only that, I think I know a little bit about his personal story. And I actually think it's quite compelling.

5:05And a lot of his personal failings I think will come across as a bit of a authentic people know about them. And also, I think California is going to begin not to peak, but to recover just the right moment for him. Yeah, I suspect anyway, it was really interesting because I did feel like I was having the same discussion you and I have had about single moms. No, like we're the same person except you is much more talented and handsome and higher character than me. Other than that, we're the same guy. That's what he suffers from. That's what everybody is sensitive to you and not to him. He definitely played into it. We talked about that. It was a very personal thing, but we did get a lot of news in too. Yeah, I'm reading about it everywhere. I know. I literally see Gavin Newsome in this 11-year-old boy on stage. I'm going over. And my voice is so, for those listening to what I apologize, this is a good version of my voice. I was absolutely dead horse three hours before and I thought I'd have to cancel, but I did all manner of things to my voice to allow it to work. And he got to open. I said, you're lucky today. I've never had a man overtalk me.

6:06So you're going to get some chance to do that today, which was funny. And he does talk a lot. Let me just say. So let's get right into it. President Trump says the US military intends to continue its assault on Iran for four to five weeks if necessary. He keeps changing his tune. We'll get to that in a second. The US and Israel began strikes on Saturday killing Iran's supreme leader, the Ayatollah, as well as several senior officials. Iran is retaliating all over the place with missiles and drones, targeting Israel, the US bases, and Gulf countries, Dubai, all manner of places. Four American service members have been killed. And Trump says there will likely be more, but quote, that's the way it is. Kind of a callous way to put it. Three US jets were also shot down in a friendly fire incident over Kuwait. The crew members got out safely. Thank goodness. These are $90 million jets. So that's $170 million. Trump has justified the attack on Iran, which did not receive congressional approval by citing quote, imminent threats that we had not provided evidence. It looks like he doesn't have any.

7:07That said, a lot of people are celebrating the death of the Ayatollah. Defense Secretary Pete Hegs says held a presser a little while ago. He said this is not so-called regime change war, but a regime-shurgeoned change. Not clear of either of them is true, because Trump has talked about regime change, and it doesn't appear as the regime has changed. Hegs' sex was also asked about the timeline. Let's listen to what he said if we can hear him directly. To the media outlets and political left screaming endless wars, stop. This is not a rack. This is not endless. I was there for both. Our generation knows better, and so does this president. He called the last 20 years of nation-building wars dumb, and he's right. This is the opposite. Well, it's nice to hear from us. It's both model. It doesn't know what he's talking about, but I also want to note about this interview I did with California Governor Gavin Newsom of the weekend for the latest episode on with Cara Spischer.

8:08It's really interesting, because one of the issues was all the misinformation online. It was really quite, it wasn't just something you treated, but it was all over the place, misreporting where he stands on all this. Let's listen to what he told me, and this was just a small piece of it, because he went on for a while, decrying Donald Trump's action. Let's go. And that's Donald Trump, the chaos president, this wrecking ball president across the board. Destruction is not strength. And once again, we've seen and destroyed not our, not only our allies in relationship to the rest of the world, but we're seeing him destroy any capacity to explain fundamentally what the core American interest is at this moment, to declare war, to go to war with a regime. And all of this is playing out in real time. News and post on S over the weekend, the corrupt and impressive Iranian regime must never have nuclear weapons, leadership of Iran must go, but that doesn't justify the president United States engaging in a legal dangerous war.

9:09Very similar to what Senator Warner said. All the senators pretty much said this guy deserved to die and at the same time, this seems like a chaotic mess. Let's talk a little bit about it, and especially the economic impact that the fighting has effectively shut down the street of Hormuz, which carries one fifth of the world's oil supply as this recording oil prices are up about 7% gas futures jumped as much as 9%. Spike in energy places supply chain strain brought a ripple effects across the global economy, especially because of the uncertainty. And the last thing I would note is that, and it's interesting as Trump does respond to this, is that there's much reporting, including in the Washington Post, about how he was convinced to do it through, oh, Mohamed bin Salman and Benjamin Netanyahu and even JD Vance in general, Kane did not want to do this. But here we are. So what do we talk a little bit about where it's going to go from here and your thoughts? Well, the, the honest answer is I have no idea.

10:10Or I, I have a, a vision for where you hope it goes. But I'm sympathetic to Governor's Newsom and Senator Warner, the notion that we're going to end up after Trump has gone, we have to be thoughtful about how we improve the tensile strength of our democracy by stopping the slow but steady leak of power from Congress, which is the people to the president under the auspices are cold, confident that they will stick to certain norms. Because effectively, a president should not be able, military action, you can maybe justify, but this is war. He used the word war. I know this is war. That it is war. And I'm sympathetic to the notion that the reason we have 535 members of Congress representing, you know, to, to per state in the Senate and one for every 750,000 people is the American people are supposed to have to say. But Democrats, it's 7 percent are actually in favor of this. So there's going to need to be, the best thing we could do coming out

11:11or one of the best things I think coming out of the Trump administration in this highlights that is to have structural reform around gerrymandering, citizens united, and that Congress has to be involved or briefed or that we have to go back to this notion where only Congress can decide if in fact we go to, we go to war. Now, where could this go? As you know, I'm in favor, loosely speaking around this action because I always like to my, I like to ask myself what could go right. Iran is 90 million people, sits on the second largest natural gas reserves, the third largest well reserves, incredible science, incredible universities, incredible entrepreneurial spirit, actually quite a non-secular It was, that's for sure. A non-secular, well, I would argue, anyways, not fairly non-secular. A lot less anti-west than people have been led to believe by what I think is one of the most oppressive brutal regimes in history. So what could go right? You could have one of the largest economies

12:14in the Middle East become more pro-west. It's been punching below its weight class for 20 or 30 years now because of poor technology and sanctions. You could immediately see it come up and be an economic power that is pro-west, pro-trading, pro-capitalist. What effectively might be the low, one of the biggest tax cuts in history, if you didn't, if you saw more consistent flows of oil and technology and a great trading partner, I actually think Europe would be the biggest beneficiary. And turn what has been the primary agent of chaos and terror in an unstable region into something resembling, I don't even call it pro-west, but neutral west. So I think there's a lot that could go right here and I think the risk assessment provided to the president, in my view, had a lot of asymmetric upside. Now having said that, what they missed here was part of the pal doctrine and that is you have to have clearly articulated objectives. Or plans for next. Beyond the law. Well, they haven't, and to your point,

13:14they just haven't been able to articulate in the last 24 hours. What is the off-ramp in the objective here is it regime change? Is it a more friendly regime? Is it, I mean, what exactly, and all of that, you're not going to get this notion that all of a sudden we're going to provide air cover and the Iranian people are going to rise up and overtake 150,000 members of the RGC who are deeply integrated into. They have outside plans. There's some great reporting on this, by the way, by my legitimate news organizations. They have contingency plans in place for what happens if the Itolla dies and they're carrying them out. But okay, but in Syria, Libya, Iraq, these were autocracies with the central figurehead. The RGC is very deeply embedded into the economy. So when you're mortgaging your salaries being paid by the RGC, it's not like, okay, the top guy Assad has gone and boom, it's a new administration. So there's a lot about the ground game.

14:15There's a lot about intelligence assets. And if they had said we are going to, for example, a potential off-ramp, we're going to neuter their navy, we're going to diminish their air defense capabilities, we're going to make sure for sure there is absolutely no ability to create or enrich nuclear stockpiles. And then we're going to leave it up to the Iranian people. That's technically an off-ramp. But I have seen in the last 24 hours them talk about regime change. No, this isn't regime change. So they haven't been able to articulate what is next. Well, I don't believe they thought about it. And I mean, one of the things that a lot of people are pointing out is the involvement of Netanyahu and the head of Saudi Arabia, who publicly had said he was against this, but privately was quite foreign and pressing for it. The linkage between the corruption with the Trump family and this coin-operated presidency that I talk about all the time is really very clear. Because most, I would say, trying to come up with a story after the fact, oh, it hasn't worked. It isn't an endless war, although it feels kind of like an endless war.

15:16It feels very bushy in, right? You definitely had echoes of that. I think he thought it was going to be, like, Venezuela, right? That it was like, just take that guy out. And by the way, he's in business with the Maduro administration. He didn't regime change that place at all, like speaking of regime change. This is much more complicated. I agree, but I think he thought it was like that, right? No, I'm agreeing with you. This is not take out Maduro and this is much more. He just has cowed the regime into it, but it's the same regime. In this case, it's really fascinating how they have put themselves into this economy in a way that's very hard to get them out, right? You know, of course, this is their point of these very corrupt and, I would say, evil, molas in Iran. But one of the things that's fascinating to me is one, the continued corruption of Trump's family and Trump with in this region. And second of all, that he keeps calling, have you noticed he's calling all,

16:17I'm waiting for a call from him myself, like he called Jake Tapper. He called the, you know, a bunch of John Carl. He's called all the regular old media people, essentially, or the people he decries all the time. And it seems like he's workshopping different reasons. Like it's, that's so disturbing. Yeah, he's trying to figure out what people want. But there is, again, what could go right here? The most powerful instinct is survival. And what we pulled off here, and when I say we, I actually think it was more than most other than us, we effectively, and I don't think people really register how profound this was. Within about two hours, we took out the equivalent of the president, the secretary of defense, and it had other joint chiefs. Right, they were all in the same place, but yes. And then, and what has got to be the strategic mistake of, I would say the last five years, other than the decision by Hamas to go into Israel, geopolitically, they started attacking civilian targets

17:21within the Gulf. Not a good idea. Farid Zakaria noted that this is a mistake. I mean, that's just, okay, you want to isolate yourself from your, from who should naturally be sympathetic to you. Now, the going back to this notion of survival instinct, at some point, you got to think the next level down. And I don't know if it's 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000 or 150,000 RGC say, okay, we too, really like our families in this thing called life, maybe we need to come to some sort of accommodation with, with the US and the West. So that would require as, you know, boots on the ground. And Trump didn't even roll that out again. Like, this, like, here's what really drives me crazy. This idea, they're like, it's not endless work. The other presidents were just dumb. It's the same thing. You, you know, they're, they're just trying very hard, just been it. And by the way, you know, that a poll that half American supported, it's actually not the case. Many of the polls are showing 25%. Usually, I didn't say 55% of Republicans, and it's about 30%, very different. Now, amongst Democrats, it's 7%.

18:23And I'm, I'm, I'm amongst the 7% of Democrats who support this. But it's a little bit different because, okay, what they're hoping for, and maybe it's, it's a hallucination, that it's not boots on the ground, that it's, that it's sandals and sneakers and slippers that the Iranian people based on the problems, the 30,000 people that have been mowed down with the front lines, they were the Marines, they were the shock troops who were willing to risk their lives. So the reality is kind of what the off-ramp will be, or how this plays out, probably plays out in the next week in terms of the Iranian populace's ability to foam and change on the ground, because the American public does not have any appetite for boots on the ground. But what I talked to a Senator this morning, I'm like, isn't a reasonable off-ramp that you would say, okay, we're going to diminish their ability to wreak havoc to a point, you know, 0.1. We're going to control the skies. We're going to diminish their navy. We're not going to, we're going to clear out their minesweepers from the Straits of Hormuz. We're going to absolutely ensure there is zero capability nuclear. And then we're going to declare. Which he said was obliterated in June. Just let's point that out.

19:24Fair point. Why did, again, more inconsistency? Why did we need to go back in to diminish their nuclear capacity when you said it was done seven months ago? So there is inconsistent messaging. But I think the, in my opinion, the opportunities here to diminish the capacity to continue to levy this depravity and oppression amongst its populace and potentially liberate one of the great cultures and civilizations history that sits on unbelievable economic potential, economic prosperity. There is a real potential upside here. You know, where else there's a potential of upside is Ukraine, same thing like this. Agreed. So what's really interesting here is he yells at Europe for not pulling their fair share in defense fine. I can see that argument, even though he makes it in the crude and repulsive way. Why isn't, why isn't Saudi Arabia and Israel paying for this? We're doing their cop duty. And we happen to have a corrupt cop on the beat. Oh, Israel's sacrifice. I'm talking about, you don't hear the same language, right?

20:26Saudi Arabia wanted this to happen. They should pay for it. Like if that's really the thing, why do I have to pay as an American taxpayer? $270 million for three planes. Like that kind of stuff. And so, and why isn't this money deployed elsewhere that I think isn't our, not me, I'm not running this show. But like why isn't Ukraine the same thing? Like that's what's really interesting is there's a country that is full of like economic, talk about economic opportunities. Same thing. Let me focus you on the toll on the US economy because all these, a free, well, first of all, every attempt at regime change in the Middle East has failed almost miserably for the United States or a version of regime change. Afghanistan everywhere, everywhere we go. Well, I did, to be fair, I did work in the Balkans. We have had successful interventions. In Kuwait, we successfully repelled the different Sarah's we did it multilaterally, which that's right. He's stupid to do here. Already Britain, our closest ally is humming and hawing about letting us use their airfields. He wants to go it alone, which is stupid.

21:26Anyway, I need to wrap to do. Talk about the economics here. So I want to know about the effect in the US economy because one of the things, because these, when people start a war, it tends to be in the 60s period, right? It's 25. And I get that the Democrats don't like it. But in a 25 is a bad place to start when you're doing a war, which if you remember, remember the studs, scud, and everyone being vaguely excited when they were doing, I mean, even myself, which is grotesque, because I now have children. I'm like, oh, no, no, no. But they talk about the toll in the economy because every, and the mega people, green, Carlson, even more heinous people are talking about this is not what we voted for, right? This is not, and they're trying very desperately to pretend it's not an endless war. It's whatever word they're going to use, is not going to work with these people. They, he's already struck seven country, seven events, like he's done more war. Like it was interesting because Hillary Clinton

22:27was so pressy and about exactly what he would do here. He seems to like and have an appetite for military action because everything's going so badly for him. So talk about the effect on the use of economy, oil prices, right? Inflation, more danger for the US in terms of attacks on our own soil from the Iranians, the credit. I mean, if you back these Iranians into a corner, they may do something really dire here in this country. What is the toll in the US economy? And let me add in that people were using this word of cash in on online betting markets, which was repulsive. If a cashier reportedly saw $36 million in bet volume related to whether or not there'll be a regime change in Iran on polymarket 529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes. And some of them seem rather suspect polymarket defended a decision to allow betting on the start of war saying it's invaluable source of news and answers. It feels like profiteering to me. But talk a little bit of the impact on the economy. What's next, if under think of three

23:29and two scenarios, what's next for the economy? Well, just to go on reverse order, I actually would argue that we have diminished. I mean, you have what is, what was the superpower in the region with their proxies, Hezbollah Hamas, the Houthis wreaking havoc economically and in terms of oppression of different people in the region. And their organizing principle was death to Israel and death to America. And I would argue that even if we don't have the regime change or a quote unquote liberated capitalist West friendly Iran, that their ability to strike at us and our proxies overseas in our basis has actually been diminished that they're not now we need to be more worried. I think we need to actually be less worried. There are two scenarios here. One scenario is we end up in another forever war that explodes our deficits and we keep incrementally making excuses for trying to impose democracy which is an oxymoron. And oil prices, the straight of horn moves gets blocked off

24:32and oil prices skyrocket. Now, to a certain extent, if you wanted to be really Macabellian, that doesn't hurt us that much because we are energy independent who this really is hurting, both Venezuela and Iran is China. 80% of Iran's oil was going to China, the same with Venezuela. So we can survive an oil shock, but you could have, you could have an increase in deficits of a forever war, disruption in supply chain, straining our relationships with the allies. I personally think there's more asymmetric upside where we unlock stronger oil flows, better technology, a potential trading partner for Europe, for Europe in the US. And I would argue I would bet that I believe in six months that oil prices will be lower than they are today. Now to your point about cost and economics, I am sympathetic to the left's view, many people on the left, that these forever wars and foreign intervention and imperialists imposing our own values

25:33on other cultures and other nations is not only wrong, it is just really fucking expensive. I'm sympathetic to that. What I'm not sympathetic to. Can I make a correction? It's, it's Charlie Kirk talked about this. The right, this has been an animating issue. It's just about to get their care. The right has a very strong isolationist bent. What is inconsistent for me? It is consistent to say, let's focus on, let's focus on our problems domestically, let's spend money domestically, let's not run up deficits with tax cuts and forever wars in a macho military. And let's stay out of other people's knitting, recognizing that we respect the right, their right to do it, to govern themselves and shape their own future. What is totally inconsistent is the far right or the right's isolationist rhetoric while approving a $1.1 trillion military budget. Because my view is the only rationale for having a $1.1 trillion military budget is quite frankly as if on a regular basis, you're going to go on your toes. Because if we don't want to get involved

26:34in this kind of foreign adventures or misadventures, whatever you want to characterize it, there's no risk of Canada invading us. So let's take our military budget down to 300 billion and pay off our deficit. So I've never understood the right's fascination with ridiculous military spending and then this isolationist complexion. I personally think the upside over the medium and the long term here economically with a peaceful Middle East once its primary sponsor of terror is neutered here. I think actually I think this over the medium and the long term could be really good for Europe and if we could figure out a way to end the war in Ukraine, figure out a way to have a neutral West Iran. I think you're going to see the largest tax cut in history because I think the flows of oil will cut oil probably in half and you'll have an incredible trading partner with what is one of the most productive capitalists in many ways societies in history and that's the Persian people. Yeah, that is true, I understand. One of the things that troubles me is the one is that he really doesn't seem to have a plan

27:35and he's the president, right? And that people within his administration. They'll call you and ask for your plan in half an hour. My plan is for you to step down but then I would get JD Vance but that's my suggestion and you should go off and spend all the money you've stolen from the American people. But one of the things that I think about a lot is that this is done in such a half as a way without the involvement of Congress, right? That really is troublesome and that these Republicans who are against these things immediately get in line. Now look, Lizzie Graham, that Southern Bell has always been wanting to do this, right? I mean, now he wants to go from, he is Southern Bell. And he's wanted to do this, he wants to do Cuba next, let's do Cuba next, right? That's the whole thing. This is all, he just, in his mistake in... Cuba isn't blinding with women. It's not hanging teenage girls and then saying, but he said Cuba, he did. And I'm saying that makes, in my opinion,

28:37as much as a war hawk as I am, I see no logical reason to invade Cuba. Well, I think that's next. It seems like they're just gonna get bored over here and come over here. But this is something Lindsey Graham has wanted forever in his endless and sad attempt to be more masculine in some fashion. So fine, fine Lindsey, that's fine. But one of the things that really drives me crazy is these people are so, they shift. These people say one thing one week and then shift it the next week. Like, look, I know you like to attack them, but they're sticking to their guns on these kind of things. They're still... I'm sorry I like to attack, what? Oh, the left a lot. But the right just shifts it. Like, it's like we're against it, we're against it, Charlie Kirk said, let's not be dragged into this by, so and so it's, let's focus here. Okay, then let's cut our military budget to 300 billion. I get it, I get it, but I just don't see why they don't, they shift this way. It's really, it's sad because I like when there's argument over what we should do here in a way that everybody gets to. And it's meant to be a discourse in the Congress.

29:38I agree with that. Barry Goldwater, Barry Goldwater called us in the 70s. He said that we have become dangerously used to a slow leak of power from the co-equal branches of government and Congress to the president. And what kept that mostly in check was a series of norms where the president would go and inform the Senate Intelligence Committee or the defense, the people on the defense committee that he would give them a heads up. He'd invite them to the White House and say, this is what we're thinking. What do you think? Those norms are gone. And so there's got to be, unless there is structural reform around what it means to have co-equal brown, Republicans are resigning from Congress because they're like, why the fuck am I here? Yeah, yeah. Well, I'm not even good. The Speaker of the House is not Mike Johnson. He's the Speaker of the White House. He's there to run roughshod over people in the minority party are used to getting fucked over. They're used to having no power. But Republicans are like, let me get this. I stuck around to be in the majority. So I said, I could represent my people and get policies through. And I'm not even being consulted on this yet. No, and on the on the Democratic,

30:39I'd say, centrist conservative. I have never seen Senator Warner who I consider pretty, pretty like moderate, more than, I mean, I think he's often, we often disagree on a lot of stuff. He was incandescent, you know, because he sees these things. He knows he has so much experience and senate intelligence, et cetera, et cetera. And to watch people who had said the very opposite shift was really something because at the very bottom of this, it puts people's lives at risk unnecessarily. And not just American troops, which is terrible. It's people on the ground there, Iranian citizens, which American troops, and I worry about Americans, you know, people attacking here. And it just creates a situation that when you, there's just a, this guy, this guy's got to have a better reason than to call someone and have a different reason every minute. And we'll see its effect on the stock market. It's not loving this at all. But we'll see, we'll see where it goes.

31:40So you brought up Calci, and what's fascinating about these things is they tend to be right, that those are well wisdom of the crowds. And when you have a Senator Warner who has just had a lot, this is not his first rodeo. He has had a ton of presidents and joint chiefs come before him and explain their plans. And when you have Senator Mark Kelly, who's actually flown these missions, if you don't take advantage of the benefit of their insight, even if they don't agree with you, you're not taking advantage of the greatest depth, the greatest IP depth of knowledge and experience in military history. And that's amongst quite frankly, many of our members of Congress. If you're not bringing Senator, Representative Seth Molten in and saying, hey, when you are on the ground in Iraq, I mean, instead we're, we're consulting with a Senator from Florida, a former Fox TV host, and a reality game show host, they're making these decisions.

32:40And the FBI is being run by a guy who likes to party in the middle of a possible terrorist action in this country. So they're just going to make, and this is I was like to try and reverse engineer to a personal learning here. One of my biggest flaws, biggest flaws as a man, is I thought that masculinity and leadership was making a quick survey of the situation and then making a decision, and then it was my job to talk everyone into my decision. No, it's not. Leadership is listening, and occasionally going, oh, fuck, I got it wrong. We need to switch course. I don't make now. I didn't learn this until I was literally 50. I don't make a big decision personally, financially, professionally, without talking to three or four really fucking smart people because you can't read the label from inside of the bottle. And the US Congress is full of some of the most impressive experience, smartest people in the world. And beyond that, there's people all around. And also they have this incredible task

33:41of representing their constituency to not check in with them. I think Senator Warner is apoplectic because he's like, for God's sakes, we can save you from yourself. That's right, that's right. He wasn't out of ego. I just, I've never seen him do that. It was really interesting. Anyway, we have to move on. This is a developing story. We'll see what happens. It seems like a very, as Gavin Newsom said, chaotic white house, it might be trying to get us away from the Epstein files or other issues at home. We didn't even talk about the distraction, but we're going to quick break. We come back, Trump targets anthropic, another incredible tech company in what former Trump official calls attempted corporate murder. Support for the show comes from BetterHelp. This International Women's Day, BetterHelp wants to remind all the mothers, grandmothers, aunts, and sisters of the world that you deserve to take care of yourself as much as you take care of people around you. If you want help getting connected with a therapist, you could try BetterHelp. BetterHelp says the initial matching works so you can focus on your therapy goals.

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36:44Because there's always something new. Join the Nordic Club to unlock exclusive discounts, shop new arrivals first, and more. Plus, buy online and pick up at your favorite Rack store for free. Great brands, great prices. That's why you Rack. Scott, we're back, President Trump ordered federal agencies to stop using Anthropic after it did not come to a deal with the Pentagon and safety. The Defense Department will phase out the use of Anthropic products of the next six months, which will, I will tell you, hurt national security. Anthropic plans to challenge a supply chain designation in court, good for them when it comes to the App Store. Anthropic is winning. Claude is the number one spot in the apples free apps as we take. Anthropic also faced a major outage on Monday with the company saying it's been dealing with quote, unprecedented demand. Meanwhile, open AI, of course, Sam, ever the opportunist open AI, Sam Altman, reached an agreement with the Pentagon, the company claims it's not a way to ensure its technologies would adhere to its safety principles by installing technical card rolls.

37:45Whoever, when Sam Altman was asked on S weather, he worried about there'd be future disputes with the Pentagon of what's legal. He responded, yes, I am. Oh my God, Sam, I gotta tell you, you need to stop talking. The former Trump official called Anthropic Order Attempted Corporate Murderer. It's a backdrop of open AI raising 110 billion. It's latest funding around, including $50 billion from Amazon and $30 billion from both Nvidia and Soft Bank and these continued round tripping kind of deals. I read a lot this weekend about this and one of the people involved was a guy named Emil Michael, who used to be an executive at Uber, who was possibly one of the most bullying and awful executives. Full of all manner of bad behaviors. When there, he left the company. We wrote some stories, the thing he was involved in that was just so not a good behavior, I would say. I have spent time with him. He was the one that was negotiating this,

38:47not a surprise. He kept calling Daru a Modi from Anthropic. Godlike, God, he thinks he's God or whatever. I've never met anyone who thinks he's God more than Emil Michael and he's usually a totty to more powerful people. In this case, Pete Hegg Seth. Anyway, it seems a ridiculous overreach on the behalf of government, probably Anthropic will win. I think it probably will benefit from this as you've noted many times. Any more thoughts on this? I don't think we're any safer as a people for having done this. I think what people miss is that over the last 12 months at a 23 markets were the 21st best performing or the 3rd worst. Yep. And what has changed? We've had incredible. The Dow is up 50,000. Hi. We've had, we still have incredible innovation. We dominate the most tectonic shift in technology. The thing that's changing is I believe we're experiencing a rotation out of US stocks and a compression of multiples. And the reason why is the following, they underpinnings of why so much capital flows

39:49into the US from every other market in the world is our incredible IP developed mostly through funding of research at universities and incredibly risk aggressive culture based on immigrants who take huge risks to get here. And also, I think more than anything, probably it or chicken and egg, it attracts the deepest pulls of capital in history. There's $5 million in venture capital for every startup in the US. There's only one million for every startup in Europe and Thropic started six years ago. If it was in Europe, it'd be one of the most valuable companies. But when government starts selectively punishing and rewarding companies based on political favoritism, that capital gets scared and starts withdrawing. Because why do you invest in open AI or Anthropic if you don't know who you're waking up next to in terms of its ability to raise capital based on the blood sugar level of whoever's president? So this is not only the wrong thing to do when it makes this feel less safe and it's probably illegal,

40:50it's gonna hit your 401K folks. And even in places like the Gulf that are run by autocracies, they have a real respect for systemic laws in the market because they recognize the moment they start fucking with companies based on their own who's in or out of political favor, which has no stock market because nobody wants to invest and then find out the CEO got a call from the wrong person or got on the wrong list and as all of a sudden, how to business? So even in China, people, I think they learn their lesson a little bit with DD where they got angry at DD and basically crushed DD, they're now, they have a lot of respect for essentially regulatory bodies, consistent application of rule of law, trying not to play favorites. So this will, the immediate reaction will be okay, they're wrong, this is illegal, fine. And also from a commercial standpoint, I've been saying for the last year

41:51that someone has an incredible commercial opportunity to say enough, we're the good guys, we do not buy into this, if this costs us money in the short term, fine, but the very American values that gave us so much opportunity or under attack and we're just not down with it. And I don't know if you remember me saying this, I said six months ago, the biggest opportunity for Nike, which is trading at a 10 year low was to run a bunch of ads saying, we're about American values and what's going on here is wrong. What's interesting is the corporate American needed a hero and it looks like it's Dario. I know, it's interesting. What's really interesting here is I think in its finally happening, they're shaping up to be Joe Frazier and Muhammad Ali here. And I think that Dario is being very smart and I think it's up to us in the media and progressive and I'm obviously stitching this into the RSS and unsubscribe thinking. I think it's time to start figuring out if there's a way to be more commercially supportive of anthropic and less supportive of open AI.

42:52Basically, open AI has decided to enable and be complicit in the Trump administration's efforts in Dario and anthropic have said, no, we're not going along here, we're not going to be intimidated. This is quite frankly, Cara, I have been waiting for this match up for a year. I know, yeah, I know you have. Let me say, I don't know Dario Amote, I don't actually, and he might be arrogant, which is in line with most people in tech. That may be true, but I do know a male Michael who has been, who did negotiators and I do know David Sacks and both of them are Aryan operators, ceaseless bullies and anxious totes to the powerful in my experience of covering them. CM Altman is a little more complex, but he's a gifted opportunist, which doesn't make him that different from anybody in Silicon Valley. And has made his choice here, right? That's he wants to business. And so it's a really, knowing the character's involved here and then on the top of it, you have an idiot,

43:53like a moron, like Pete Hegg said, who doesn't know what's happening, communicating to someone who's even more moronic on these issues, which is Donald Trump. I think just, I suspect Sacks is whispering in his ear and male Michael's whispering in Hegg's ear. And this is all a Silicon Valley beef, right, between and among these people. A meal was, was like, was had to leave Uber under very, not great circumstances was pushed out. I think all these people is payback for other people. It's just, there's a lot of Silicon Valley drama happening here. And I don't know Daru, I don't, I don't, I really don't. It's unusual that I don't and I've asked for interviews he has not agreed to do an interview with me. Thanks Chris Nelty. But I do, and he did a very good interview with CBS News actually, which I thought was interesting. He handled himself really well. He handled himself really well. He starched his hat wide in that interview. Yeah, it was a good interview.

44:54But one of the things that I know is the people on the other side of him are very, people I covered for years who are just not good. How can I say this nicely? They're the worst of the people I had to cover over the many years. I have to say they're literally the worst. And to see them in these positions of power is making these decisions and hurting a company that just doesn't want to do business with them. And actually Michael tweeted out against a Modi weeks ago. You know, it's so unprofessional as a government. Like it's so, it's such based in beefs that were happening elsewhere. And I mean, I'm really, I had ended up having drinks with them after he was sort of drummed out of Uber. And he sets something to me. It was so strange. He goes, well, I'm so glad we can be friends. And I remember saying to him, we're not friends. I think what you did there is terrible. I don't know where you operate, but let him just do what he wants and don't bring your stupid insecure beefs out on the thing.

45:57And it will benefit anthropic. It will, I think he's handling himself. And he may be arrogant. He may have a God comes. I don't know, I don't know. But he's certainly not like these people. And in that case, the bar is low. I've had my say. I think it's a big opportunity. I think Americans and consumers are so ready to vote with their pocketbooks. And Sam, I don't think Sam has acquitted himself well. I'm not going to have advertising. We would never do porn. Well, I need to raise money, never mind. And the largest customer in the world, which is the US government needs to have a series of systemic laws that don't, these are the rules you get to play by and full stop. Everyone is entitled to and obligated to the same set of rules, not who you like or who you don't like, in which kind of leads into our next story, which is Netflix and Paramount. Right, Netflix. Speaking of that, Scott, let's take a quick break. When we come back, Netflix emerges as a winner after losing the Warner Brothers battle.

46:58America leads the world in medicine development. It matters. We get new medicines first, nearly three years faster. Five million Americans go to work because we make medicines here at home. And not relying on other countries keeps us safe. But China is racing to overtake us. Will we let them? Or will we choose to stay ahead? When America leads, America cures. Let's tell Washington to keep us in the lead. Learn how at AmericaCures.com, paid for by Pharma. Spring is here, and there's a whole new way to try at Starbucks that's made perfect for you. Choose your sweetness, dial it up, or keep things light. Add a touch of pistachio, a hint of strawberry, or vanilla, or make it a spring classic with lavender. Because this season, there's endless ways to try at Starbucks. This is what President Trump had to say about why the United States is at war with Iran. We sought repeatedly to make a deal.

47:59We tried. They wanted to do it. They didn't want to do it. Again, they wanted to do it. They didn't want to do it. They didn't know what was happening. Not the best explanation for a war of choice, sir. I'm personally a, do my own research kind of guy, but let's ask AIY, we're at war with Iran. Chat? The United States attacked Iran in 2026 because it claimed Iran posed an imminent threat, particularly due to Iran's advancing nuclear program and missile capabilities, and aimed to reduce Iran's ability to project power in the region. Wow, that was a better explanation. Thanks, Chat. Fitting that AI was more clear than the President of the United States, because it turns out the United States is using AI to fight the war in Iran. The future of war is AI, and that future is now here. You can find out whether or not you should be freaking out over in the today's explain feed. Scott, we're back.

49:02Netflix may have lost the battle for Warner Brothers, but it's looking like a winner. Boy, this is incredible. The company stock searched 14% of it, formally exited the bidding war. It also now has $2.8 billion in the bank after Paramount paid the Warner Brothers breakup fee. When I have to plan all along with the saddle Paramount with debt, drive up the price and walk away with more money, Ted Cerando said there are easier ways to make $2.8 billion very funny. He's also trashing it so beautifully. I have to say, what a pro the way it's ridiculously expensive. He's dropped in all sorts of bone mows in that Bloomberg interview he did. I'm hoping to do it with him relatively soon. He noted that Paramount deals dependent on cost-cutting, leading to less production, less people working. He's 100% right. On the Paramount front CEO, David Ellison, who got strafed by Barry Deller as a stunt pilot in the speech, another thing, just announced that Paramount plus in HBO Max will be combining to one streaming service. He also said there would be a lot of cuts, $6 billion in cuts that he can quickly

50:02deleverge at nobody believes him or thinks he's capable of doing it. Cerando said, talked more about $16 billion. Let me just tell you, Hollywood, look out below. This is, look, I don't think Ellison means to be incorrect, but he is incorrect about what's about to happen here because the pressures on this much debt of height talked to, as you know, Bill Cohen went because you weren't around last weekend. But this much debt is enormous amounts of debt. It's like crazy. They don't have enough income. They have barely enough income, so they can't grow. They have to cut. There's going to be, there's obvious duplication that they will cut, but even more than that. Anything they say at this point is just absolutely untrue. It's just, and again, I don't think they mean it that way. I think they believe it that they can, you know, turn shed into a chicken, shed into chicken salad, but most smart math people don't think they can do it,

51:02especially with competitors like Netflix, breathing down the, and YouTube, playing down their neck. Your thoughts? Well, I think I've been consistent on this. The biggest losers are the creative community. They don't realize it. I don't know, half a million of them just got lined up and shot. I mean, they're, they're the amount of AI slop we're going to see come out of paramount and water, trying to pass for, you know, great breakthrough content. It's just going to be, like I said, you know, in space, no one can hear you scream, oh, trust me, you're going to hear a lot of people scream. And the biggest winner hands down, and I told Ted this, I said, if you walk from this, you realize your stocks are going to go up 10%, I was wrong. In the last five days, the stocks up 30%. Yeah, back to other levels, yeah. Okay, so let's look at it this way. They quit and quit technically, save $120 billion by not acquiring it. And their stocks up 100 billion.

52:04Kara, they could go by Disney right now for walking from Warner Brothers. So, and if I were them and I was Ted and I'd be pissed off, I'd be firing up my lobbyists and my lawyers and be like, delay an obvious hit, make it create so much havoc for this deal to close. And by the way, every studio, every crib, they're all going to want to go to work for one place. Okay, do I want, if I'm pitching, I just had my latest book option for a series and for documentary, which means absolutely nothing I've figured out in Hollywood. Your man notes on big and man. Yeah, for an original scripted series and a documentary, anyways. Think of it as an R rated wonder years, I'm pitching it. Who's playing me? Irvave Village. Great funny. Irvave Village is in a little tiny studio with a puppy German shepherd. No, she'll make it work. He looks like a teenage boy too. Anyways. She'll make it. So these guys, the amount of money, let me first

53:08way, say, say you're in the creative community and you have the hottest scripts or you're the hottest actor. And you have offers from the Paramount Studio, from Warner or for Netflix. Who are you absolutely going to pick? Netflix. Oh my God, they're going to every day of the week and twice a week. HBO, they look like heroes. You all hated Netflix. Now you're going to love them. It's really. And by the way, when the Democrats come into power, that's going to be good for them too. HBO just lost 30% of his time because HBO's asset was it always was able to punch above its way class. It did two billion in content relative to Netflix is 18 billion. But if there was a show people were talking about around the water cooler, whether it was girls or euphoria or game of thrones or succession, it usually was HBO because HBO's culture and ability when I'm talking a lot about me, my favorite subject. But when we pitched my big tech series, everybody, all the creatives and all the stars, they all wanted to go with HBO.

54:09They love Netflix. But if we had our choice, we would have gone with HBO. Guess what? That just changed overnight. Completely. I wouldn't do a thing with them. I have to say, I've got some shows. I don't have no interest in them. What so they can figure out how to produce it for a third of the budget using an AI? Yeah, fuck you. And also, one of the things that's interesting is that there is an interesting movement. And also, I mean, I think the CNN part of it is a smaller part of it. It still is going to be a lot of news, right? It's still because it's CNN, the merger. And they've already made a mess of CBS. But they're going to make a bigger mess of CNN. I have heard from so many HBO people that are like fuck. Like fuck was everything in every, like a dozen HBO people. CNN is losing its ever-loving mind, right? As they should. And they're like, to like, what do we do, Kara? And I'm like, I don't know. I'm not going to be here. So it's not like, I was like, I don't know what to tell you. But you know, I wouldn't work for those hacks.

55:09But one of the things that's interesting is the idea that Netflix takes a little bit of this money and hires like Andersen Cooper and the best of them and creates a little new service. Like I, they should. Like a really good one. I talk to the mooner on his content and Netflix, and I said, I have an idea. Ballot? Ballot. Yeah. Start something called the hour and hire the two thirds of the people from 60 minutes. They would like to leave right now. And have a show, weekly show called the hour, or 59 minutes. I offer, I'm like, I'll tell you who's good and who's not. I like I don't think all of those people are looking for a way to get off the, get on the last helicopter out of Saigon right now. Yeah. And a lot of them want to be entrepreneurial. It's really interesting. They do see the need to change out. I mean, obviously the economics of a lot of broadcast and cable television is out of whack with the revenues clearly all through the industry, by the way. Netflix is up 30% Netflix. Netflix. That has decided that Netflix is worth a hundred billion dollars more without Warner Brothers.

56:12They could spend a very little amount of money putting together a really interesting news offering. At the same time, you know, as obviously CBS is going to, is going right in a really weak sauce way. It's really kind of wimpy right and stupid right. But I mean, if you're going to be right, go all the way to Fox. That's my feeling. Like, and it's, it's an ever dying audience, by the way. And I mean, my mom's was an average listener, essentially. She's 92. But one of the things that I think will help with. The boxes don't really well. Yeah, that's right. You're not going to get, you're not catching fox. Here's a crazy stat, supposedly more moderate to watch Fox and CNN right now. Well, I'm not surprised. It's anyway, one of the, because the news part is, I mean, Jennifer, and there's several people who are quite good over there. But there's a lot of great people in CNN. Let me be clear. There's a lot of great reporters throughout that organization and they do a great job. People tend to focus on Scott Jennings at night when there's lots of people. But, I mean, I feel stupider with Abby Phillips. Okay, stop, stop, Scott Jennings is the problem over there.

57:13So, no. CNN is a problem for putting him on having crossed fire. That, that show is a, but I'm saying, there's a lot more CNN than that show. So it gets a lot of attention. But one of the things that I think is interesting is really opens up an opportunity for MS now, because they're by themselves over there on the left. Like, it's a great business, right? Like, it's just, it's sort of like the fox of the left. And so, they have a huge opportunity. It seems to me in the office. Do you or in love with your, I'm not, I'm fine with traditional media. This is who it's an opportunity for. It's an opportunity. A small opportunity for Bill Cohen and, and, and Ben Thompson and Cara Swisher. I know that. You're about to see a massive diffusion of power from these industrial brands. It's already happened. But the means of production is way too expensive to all these little media company startups and stub stacks and podcasts and newsletters and this, all this hand wringing that, oh, no, the Washington Post can't go away. Doesn't fucking matter, folks. Those people are going to find their own little, little niche media companies and they're going to punch

58:15above their way of class. And I can be saddled by the blood sugar level of a guy in human growth hormone and same part. I get it. I just think MS now, by itself being, I think CNN should have been independent, would have given an opportunity to be innovative. They have an opportunity to be innovative. They do, they absolutely do. And so that's a good thing for them, because they're, they're all by themselves over there on. This is the best use of CNN. We have an iconic popular Gavin Newsom and he stacks his cabinet with CNN anchors. Dana Bash has made a great vice president. Yeah, yes. Dana does a great job. There's a lot of really great. There's amazing people. Michael's more honest. I think he could be Secretary of Defense. There's a lot. Anderson, I think, does a good job every single. Caitlin Collins, I have so much admiration for her. She can be ambassador to the EU. Okay. I can pull together, I can pull together a cabinet that looks like the fucking Kennedy administration from CNN anchors. Well, and it would be so much higher than D-Degs set on CNN. Well, think about it. Jeanine Piro, that's, I mean, look who are competing. I'm down, I am down for networks as cabinets at this point.

59:18I think the CNN people are so impressive, but they're all about, and they've been doing this last two years. I'm thinking about starting a podcast, because they're having the uncomfortable conversation right. I used to make seven million a year and they've offered me two. Have you had every conversation with all of them? Not just CNN. It's throughout the... Oh, it's everywhere. It's everywhere. It's all the media people. I could have a business. People anchor off the most money they've ever made and think that's what I'm worth. No one ever thinks of themselves, wow, I'm overpaid right now. I can prove you statistically at any moment in time, there's a 50% chance you are overpaid right now. Yeah. Relative to the market. I'm not favoring media. I just think it's, I always see it as an opportunity. I always see it as an, like, you can still do well. It's a good business. It makes a lot of profits. You could do well here. And it could give you an opportunity for MS now to have a lane all to itself. And I think that's always a good thing. Always a good thing. Who's MS now star as a ritual? Is she's only one day a week out? Rachel, there's a whole bunch of there. But let me say Rebecca Cutler is Stephanie. There's a whole bunch of people over there that are very talented. And they're hiring a lot of great reporters.

1:00:19And Rebecca Cutler, who you know about, is amazing. Like she's, she's, she's seen it. She heard me at CNN plus. She did at the blue. And you know, I think there's lots of opportunity. I think that the, the, the, the, the Ellison's will bollocks it. And coming to you soon, a Karoswisher, a docuseries, Karoswisher wants to live forever on CNN. Now I'm kidding. I just hope it closes before then, so I can see a photo with you and Larry Ellison. No, it's not. Listen, it's gonna be soon. I will be at, I'll be. I'll have removed my, my things from the closet long, long, long. I'm just so curious who they're gonna ask, who they're gonna ask to run, you know? Let me just tell you everybody, Scott Galloway is in the second episode, and he's looking fine. And he looks, it's an adorable, and Scott moment. That'll save him. That's their answer. It's actually a really good show. I have to say. I'm very happy. You have to say your show is really good. You're going to love this. I did a podcast today, and they asked me, what was my favorite moment with Kara Swisher?

1:01:20And I said, when you and your wife came down for the weekend, and I let you speak to pick the streaming media thing we were going to watch, pick fucking mistake. You pick some like art heists from PBS, they're like, the history of great museum dasts or something. Oh, fuck. Oh, that's a good show. And we're sitting there, and we're all eating, and over comes white LeBron. You're a 14 year old monster, and he sits down, and I'm not exaggerating. We all pop eight inches into the air. He's bigger than ever. And also the next day, you were, you were scolding him like a mother does, and you were literally your necklace craning so hard up with him. It was like watching Billy, it was like watching Billy Barty lecture, Shaquille O'Neal. Yeah, well, I said to my son, I'm like, look at this. Look at this. Look what's going on over there. Yeah. Anyways, that's my favorite moment. Yeah, that's right. I should, I should parent everybody. I think you kind of do. Anyway, let's go on a quick break when we come back. Winds and Fails. Rated T for Teen.

1:02:22Hey everyone, it's the best in the world. CM Punk, back to Shake Up, WWE 2K26. This year, the show never stops. You're running the greatest spectacle on earth with the biggest roster we've ever had. Over 400 superstars and legends from every era. Stack the tables, break the rules, burn it all down. And yeah, my very own showcase, telling my story, the way it should have been told. Because when the show never stops, anything is possible. Available March 13, pre-order now. Our Democrats, their own biggest problem. You know, a party becomes defined by who their central figure, who their quarterback, becomes Democrats haven't really anointed a effective quarterback since Barack Obama pretty much. In this week, the Atlantic staff writer, Mark Liebovich, joins me to discuss the state of the Democratic Party in which race is to keep an eye out for this midterm election. The episode is out now. First and follow, stay tuned with pre, wherever you get your podcasts.

1:03:28Okay, Scott, let's hear some wins and fails. I can go first. Go first. I have to say, I, we talked, I talked too much about Heathil Robbins, but I thought Connor's story did a great job on SNL this week. I usually- Oh my god, that's my win. What? That's my win. You take it. You take it. Let's discuss it. I feel that SNL thread, my win was SNL. I thought they thread the needle perfectly. This week, yeah, not every week, yeah. They, they honored the women's team, but at the same time, I think it's bullshit. All the shit the men have taken. Yeah. I think for them to, wouldn't have been great if you listened to the video. This was President Trump taking everyone back to the 50s and mocking women. That is not what we need. We need a more evolved sense of masculinity that celebrates great athletic performance. By the way, eight of 12 medals from the women, the goal, the overtime goal, in my opinion, one of the great moments in sports history of the women's hockey team, they threaded the needle perfectly because I do think the men got more shit than they deserved.

1:04:31Well, they got, they got invaded by cash patrol. Let's win cash patrol. That's exactly right, but that's right. What are they going to do? What are they going to do? I agree. I agree. Anyways, and if you listen to the tape when, when Trump made those wildly sexist remarks, there were one or two men's hockey players saying, two for two. They were trying to acknowledge that both the men's and the women's team and SNL did it perfectly. They did. They didn't virtue signal and say, yeah, women and, oh, that bulls that. They made some jokes. They had the women make the jokes and the men were there to take it. Take it. And they were fine with it. They thread the needle perfectly. And it was critical that Connor's story was standing in between them. I have to say he's such a likable person and such a talented physical comedian. Like, his stripper who got in a car accident was so fucking funny. Like, I don't believe they pulled that one off. I have to say he is such a delightful. He's very talented. He's a delightful figure. Both of them are. And Tonya season two, like scorching hot rivalry with the women's hockey team.

1:05:34Yeah, that is here for him. Yes, yes. And I thought the women handled it well. So well done. The writers at SNL are geniuses. And you know who sucks cash fucking Patel. Why are you invading these guys when, like, as if you reflected fucking glory, you tubby loser, like, forget it, like, how dare you? Now I focus the only on cash Patel. I really am. I think he's just the worst. So my fail is, I think this situation with anthropic, I think it has to be, we are not the same person today. We're literally the same person. Okay. I think they are, they are bullies. I think they use Twitter as a way to attack people in a way that's really unprofessional. You can have differences. And everyone's always grabbing for power and grabbing for money. I get it. It's gone on since the beginning of time. But the way you're doing this is all about your insecure childhood traumas that are being writ large on the rest of us. This is not professional. You do not have to, like, do this.

1:06:34And they do it as, like, keyboard warriors on Twitter. I got a text from someone I could say who was, who said, you got, the world is happening on Twitter. You got to be back here. And I was like, I'm not going back to that Nazi porn bar that enjoys making children sexual. I was like, the world is not happening on Twitter. The world is happening in the world, you guys, like, you need to fucking get out of your own fucking way. You are, you are, you have to understand that what you're doing is damaging to most people. And that we don't want to hear about all your beefs and all your traumas and everything else. If Anthropic doesn't want to do business with you, just let's move along. Let's just move along. And I'm sorry you're not as successful as Daru Amote or Smart and the Almighty, but you're going to have to live with it as being an anxious toady to the powerful. Stop it. Like, that to me is the loss. You go ahead. Mine's exactly the same, but I'll look at it through a shareholder lens. I'm looking at a company called Mercado Libre, which is the Amazon of Argentina.

1:07:38And one of the reasons I'm looking at it is that effectively, when the bricks were invoked, you know, the price earnings multiple of certain Latin American markets was about 20. And it went down to eight because all the flows went into US tech stocks, which meant you could, you could increase your earnings two and a half fold over 10 years and your stock was flat. You can't outrun multiple contraction in a market as a stock and it's all into the same auspices and market dynamics, Trump, individual performance. At the same time, it's almost impossible to be wrong when you have multiple expansion. It has been American investors, you know, we all think we're geniuses right now in our foreign case. We have had multiple expansions since 2008 and we're about to experience multiple contraction and we're already experiencing it. We were 21 out of 23 markets last year on a dollar adjusted basis. Everyone else outperformed us. And one of the reasons people don't realize we have just lost trillions of dollars when the Pentagon starts picking winners and losers. If on the road, which makes weapons decides that, yeah, we are going to figure out, we're

1:08:41going to use Silicon Valley ethos to help the defense department kill people and people freak out. Well, guess what? They're allowed to do that. It's not illegal. They're allowed to do that. When Palantir says we're going to work with the government of Israel to track down terrorists and kill them in their homes, that you may find that this stays full. It's legal. They're allowed to do it. And anthropic when they decide we don't want to provide our services or data for what we feel is the surveilling the illegal surveillance of U.S. citizens, they too are allowed to do that. And when governments start playing political favorites in markets, the rule of law is no longer applied and your multiple on companies, your price earnings multiple, begins to contract. Freedoms and systemic laws and a separation between government and business results in higher price earnings multiples and greater increases in 401k's and your ability to retire earlier. And this bullshit pentagon stationary war on anthropic is going to cost U.S. investors

1:09:45trillions of dollars as people decide to go where they know who they're waking up next to that they can invest in a company. And they do the assessment based on the laws at hand. Is this company succeeding or failing based on the current laws? And they don't have to try and guess what the one-off individual laws will be in a few months. So I have the same win and same fail. But I look at it as an investor. I'm now looking at markets. People get angry at that talker season in China or in the Gulf. They have a huge respect for the domain or the sovereignty of investors and having uniform laws that apply to everyone equally. And we are now becoming that nation where we decide which companies win and lose and all that means is our PE we're about to experience multiple contraction which you cannot outrun. Not for long. Let me just say you feel it. Tent you feel it. And speaking of feeling it. It's got this has been a great discussion. I have to say I was a little worried this morning. I was also tired but this has been a really great discussion about these things and disagreeing

1:10:48in a really civil way. But let me say it's going to continue because we're going where are we going, Scott Galloway on Sunday. Resist and unsubscribe. Big announcement full-time resources and by the way Sam it's not going to be a good night for you. Now it's not going to be. And guess which Sam we're talking about. 48 hours. Yeah. You put Kara Swisher on an invite and 48 hours we sold out the appendages a thousand weeks. Hold it out. And we want to thank Tane Danger for doing an amazing job for us in Minneapolis. In my favorite porn star. He's your favorite porn star and he's an amazing and our staff who's working really hard. We sold out right away. We are coming to Minneapolis. We have special guests. We are very excited. And we will talk about the next move Scott will Scott who's the president of resistant unsubscribe. I'm just a helper. We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nmymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 85551 pivot. Okay. That's the show. Thanks for listening to pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel.

1:11:50We'll be back on Friday. Today's show was produced by Larry Neymann, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin and Kate Gallagher. I'm going to introduce how to enter you this episode Jim Mackle edited the video. Thanks also to Debrose, Miss Rivera, and Dan Shalon, the shark who has VoxMedia's executive producer podcast. Make sure to follow pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thank you for listening to pivot from New York Magazine, VoxMedia. You can subscribe to the magazine at nmymag.com slash pivot. We'll be back later this week for another breakdown of all things tech and business care. Have a great rest of the week. Rinse knows that greatness takes time, but so does laundry. So rinse will take your laundry and hand deliver it to your door, expertly cleaned. And you can take the time pursuing your passions. In one spent sorting and waiting, folding and queuing, now spent challenging and innovating and pushing your way to greatness. So pick up the Irish flute or those calligraphy pens or that daunting beef Wellington recipe card and leave the laundry to us. Rinse, it's time to be great.

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