newsdailypolitics

Is Starmer ending his abusive relationship with Trump?

The News Agents·Mar 16, 2026·36:24

About this Episode

Last night, President Trump told reporters on Air Force One that he was "demanding" allies provided back up in the Strait of Hormuz and send ships to keep the supply of oil flowing.

“If there’s no response or if it’s a negative response", he warned, "I think it will be very bad for the future of Nato."

Keir Starmer’s response this morning was clear - the PM insisting that the UK would not be dragged into a wider war. Instead, he’s working with European allies on a "viable plan" to ease the crisis. Others have used even stronger language. The Germans have said the war has "nothing to do with NATO". Luxembourg's deputy PM has warned his country won't listen to "blackmail". Italy has rejected Trump's request. Others too, are deciding that they no longer need to pander to the man in the White House.

Has Europe reached a fundamental turning point now when it comes to America? Does it see Trump - and his war -as a toxic asset? And how do we navigate lower oil prices in the midst of this geopolitical chaos?

The News Agents is brought to you by HSBC UK Beyond Business Ownership - https://grp.hsbc/BeyondBusinessOwnership

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Transcript

This is a global player, original podcast.

Have a listen to this from Donald Trump on a very noisy Air Force one.

What all you need is a few people dropping lines here and there and you allow it up.

So we need, I really am demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory

because it is their territory.

I'm demanding these countries, Britain, other European countries, come in and help

with keeping the straight of Hormuz open.

This is Keir Starmer's response this morning.

First, we will protect our people in the region.

Second, while taking the necessary action to defend ourselves and our allies.

We will not be drawn into the wider war.

It's a pretty clear no from Starmer and he's joined by Italy and Germany as well.

So is this a moment?

Is Europe starting to turn its back on Donald Trump?

Welcome to the news agents.

The news agents.

It's John. It's Emily.

And in the straight of Hormuz, shipping is at a trickle.

Some vessels are getting through but with Iranian permission and you need Iranian permission now to get anywhere

because they can block the straight and it is just too dangerous for other shipping.

And Donald Trump now into week three of the war has suddenly realised he's got an epic problem

that conventional warfare is not doing it against Iran.

Iran can close the straight of Hormuz through which 20% of the world's oil flows like that.

With the click of a finger, the Iranians can block the straight and stop all oil moving.

And so Donald Trump now finds himself in the rather desperate position where he's saying,

well come on, I know I've started this war but where is everybody?

Well, aren't you coming to help me?

And one of the moves that we saw over the weekend was Donald Trump starting to deploy

what looks to be a marine force around Kaga Island.

This is an island off the coast of Iran which has got a very central Iranian oil refinery on it.

He hasn't hit the oil refinery but he has hit other parts of the island and he is moving troops,

marine troops into the area as if to say we are now going to start to work on the straight of Hormuz

with the equivalent of boots on the ground, boots on the sea, what do you call them?

Well, boots on the sea would be walking on water which would even for Donald Trump now be some achievement.

Well, once there at a time.

So what we're seeing is Donald Trump reaching out to allies and in this rather imperious tone

that you heard on Air Force One, he's saying where is everybody?

Everybody is looking at the situation and saying why on earth would we want to get embroiled in his war?

We didn't start this, we didn't understand what it's going, we didn't see the plan,

we didn't have congressional or legislative sign off from our own members of parliament,

why on earth do we want to get dragged in to that war?

They're not quite saying it as starkly as that.

They're talking about national interests, they're talking about the importance of safety for those in the region,

they're talking about looking after the economic interests as well,

but they're clearly not about to send warships into this situation.

And as if to preempt that in no uncertain terms,

Kirst Starrmer held a news conference this morning,

and the top line was really what he now wants to do to bring down energy prices.

He talked about the kind of areas that they'll be finding more money for fuel bills,

for heating bills, for the rising cost that this war will clearly create,

but he doesn't want to get drawn into the war.

And if you read between the lines, Mertz, Chancellor of Germany,

is saying something pretty similar.

Italy is saying thanks but no thanks.

Japan in its beautifully euphemistic way is saying,

I think probably we'll find alternative arrangements.

Thanks very much.

Trump is even calling on China.

Why would China help America?

China ships are getting through.

China has no problem.

China and Iran are okay, right?

So the fact that Trump is turning to a sort of art genemy of America

to help America sort out its problems

when China isn't facing those problems,

I think takes you into his state of mind,

which is frankly getting desperate.

Right?

This is a desperation.

So there was that comment that Donald Trump made about Keir Starmer

that he's no Winston Churchill.

And you go back to the Second World War,

where Winston Churchill was desperate, was begging, was pleading with FDR,

with Roosevelt to come and join the war.

And then thank God the Japanese bomb, Pearl Harbor,

and Winston Churchill dances for joy because, of course,

it means that the Americans are going to be joining the Second World War.

This time round, actually, the role of Winston Churchill

being desperate is being played by Donald Trump.

He's desperate to get the Europeans to come and help him.

Please, I've got myself into a right frigging mess in the state of Hormuz.

I started this war, I thought I'd get rid of the leadership.

It would all be happy days.

And now we're finding out why successive American presidents

have said, you must be bloody joking to Israel,

when they've said, come on, let's attack Iran,

because the complications are mounting.

There are no easy solutions.

It is very easy to block the state of Hormuz if you're Iran.

And there's a whole range of weaponry of drones, unmanned motorboats

that could go out and attack shipping.

There are allegedly, they've got something like 5,000 mines

that they could just drop a couple over the board of a fishing boat

and you've blocked the straight.

And so all these countries are now saying to Donald Trump,

you started this.

This is your mess.

Why are we obliged to come and help?

Yeah, I mean, a short history lesson to your point was that Churchill was desperate

because the Nazi invading force had just essentially

taken France and was heading towards the UK and further, yes,

we were dealing with an invasion across Europe, right?

That isn't what Trump is dealing with.

Trump is looking like a man who has never played chess before,

who suddenly moved his king to the center of the board

and doesn't really understand why he's now under attack.

And to this point, Iran has played politics with oil.

For decades.

Not just under this administration.

Absolutely.

But the Shah of Iran had America literally over a barrel in the 1970s

when they worked out about the way they could produce oil

and the price they could command after the Six Day War,

Israel Six Day War against the Arab countries in 67.

Iran was the center of the world in terms of oil producing

and how it was dealing with America.

And the fact that Trump wouldn't even think,

wouldn't even think two steps beyond his own nose

as to what was going to happen if he suddenly created problems for Iran.

Who are the gatekeepers?

Who define what oil gets through one part of the world to the next?

The fact that he didn't even think that far as extraordinary.

I mentioned that Japan had been sort of euphemistic.

I mean, the phrase that they used was that to escort ships

faces high hurdles, which is their way of going,

I don't think so.

Luxembourg, slightly less diplomatic.

Their deputy prime minister, Havier Betel,

said his country would not give in to blackmail from the US

to join the war saying,

with satellites, with communications,

we're very happy to be useful,

but don't ask us with troops and with machines.

I love that.

Machines is such a sort of ludite word.

It means anything, doesn't it?

We're not doing it, right?

Well, then there's the other thing that Donald Trump has said,

which again, I think is just fascinating and troubling.

I mean, I'll read it.

We won't play any more Air Force One,

because it'll make your ears bleed, probably.

But it's only appropriate that people who are the beneficiaries of the straight

will help to make sure that nothing bad happens there.

If there's no response,

or if it's a negative response,

I think it will be very bad for the future of NATO.

Now, NATO is a defensive alliance.

Article five of the NATO Treaty says

that an attack on one country is an attack on all.

Donald Trump is doing the attacking here.

It is America's war of choice with Israel to attack Iran.

It wasn't in defense of anything.

I mean, we just haven't had any kind of serious explanation

about why this is a NATO matter.

This is Donald Trump's matter.

This is the U.S. matter.

And it's just worth playing.

That clip of Donald Trump

from a week or so ago,

when, kind of after Keir Starmer has talked about aircraft carriers going,

this was Donald Trump's response.

Give me the offer to send to aircraft carriers.

Maybe, maybe, but they're not here.

Or I just couldn't add a response.

They said,

we don't need them.

It's not the right time.

It would have been nice to have had them two weeks ago,

but the response that went out, I think, says it very well.

And so, Donald Trump, having stuck two fingers up at Keir Starmer

for his offer of an aircraft carrier,

is now saying, please, please, please,

and we'd love to have whatever help you can give

and you can understand why other countries are wary

because if they send warships into the strait,

they will be sitting targets as well.

For all their sophisticated weaponry.

Yeah, I do think this takes us back to the place that we started,

which is whether there has been a change of mood in Europe

because nearly a year ago,

we were covering the NATO summit in the hey,

last June.

And at that time, NATO countries were falling over themselves

to please Donald Trump.

All they wanted was for the NATO summit to go

well, will we get to this 5% mark of defense spending?

Mark Rutter was pretty much lecturing NATO about how they needed to do more.

This was the summit famously where he ended up calling Trump daddy.

You know, daddy, of course, had to swear at those naughty countries.

And this was just after Trump had struck Iran for the first time

and declared that he had obliterated Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Okay.

What is interesting about that summit is,

I think that was six months into the Trump second term,

where Europe was saying,

well, he has got a point.

You know, we haven't spent as much as we should.

We can't be dependent on America for all our defense forever more.

And so they talked themselves into a place where this was the practical

and the pragmatic and the sensible thing to do.

You know, all of NATO was coming together and well done, Donald Trump,

for showing us the path.

Six months later,

Donald Trump is talking about invading Greenland at Davos.

They don't really know what to make of that.

He's already kidnapped the president of Venezuela and his wife.

They don't really know what to make of that.

He clearly hasn't ended the Ukraine war,

which he promised to do on day one.

They don't really know what to do with that.

And here we are in March with a full scale war in the Middle East.

That he has started.

And I think this is the point at which Europe's saying,

hang on, we've kind of played the game.

You know, we've gone towards his demands.

We've pushed our own defense spending.

We've actually managed to find accommodations to what we thought he was asking for.

But fucking hell, where does this end?

Right?

Because if he's still going to talk about invading Denmark,

if he's still going to go in and start wars,

if he's still going to go in and kidnap heads of state,

what is the role of NATO in any of that?

Why, as you say, why should a defense organization,

which is meant to be keeping the peace,

which is meant to be stopping invaders like Putin

or stopping invaders like Xi Jinping

if he tries to do the same in Taiwan?

Why do we want to be part of a force, which is bellacres, which is starting wars?

And so I do think this is a kind of turning point for Europe,

because the language that we're seeing now,

whether it's from Germany, whether it's from Italy,

whether it's from Belgium,

or whether it's even from our own Pat McFadden this morning on Sky News,

is pretty unambiguous now.

It's a very transactional presidency.

And our job is to navigate this,

to always remember that the friendship between the United States

and the United Kingdom runs very deep.

It's a good relationship, it's enduring.

And I think it will outlast all the personalities involved.

Okay, so just to say for that one,

it will outlast all the personalities involved,

means, forget Trump, this is about the countries,

we will survive, it will reconnect once Trump's out the way.

The other word he uses is navigate this.

Navigate is not a word that you use to describe your friendships, right?

Navigate is what you do to describe difficult, stormy, complex relationships

with your adversaries.

And so the fact that Pat McFadden is having to talk about finding his way through this,

I think speaks volumes.

Kistarma hasn't, frankly, spelled out what it means to defend the national interest,

to defend people in the region, but not to get involved in the wider war.

Maybe he's kind of saying, well, you know, that's for Tuesday.

But the one thing I would say is that I think,

I think that Starma's superpower at the moment is being able to be boring,

quite boring, you know, not strident, not loud, not shouting.

He's kind of hit the right pace and the right tone for this age,

which is, people are terrified of Trump now, they're terrified of the sound of chaos,

they're terrified of the id of the drones and the airports closing,

the airspace closing, and whatever's going on that we have no control over.

And so when Starma stands up and says, well, I'm just going to try and take this one step at a time,

points A, B, and C, points one, two, and three, all the things that you normally think,

sort of stand against Starma, which is like, oh, come on, show us your personality,

or show us your drive, or show us the glint in your eye,

everyone's going, oh, yeah, that's fine, thanks.

Yeah, I'll take that.

And I think that's absolutely right.

And I think that the measured tone of not getting into a pissing competition,

frankly, with Donald Trump, where he kind of lets off a rhetorical hand grenade,

and you feel you've got a fire off a rhetorical missile in return.

Kirsten was not doing that.

Kirsten was just, but I think that what you heard from Pat McFadden about him being a transactional president,

we know there's rhetoric, we know there's bullshit, we'll take it in our stride,

we're not going to get overexcited.

But I do think that where Trump is right is, of course, it is in Britain's interests

and Europe's interests that the straight-of-all moves is open,

and is kind of open for business.

And so I'm sure they are looking at ways in which they can be of help,

but it's hard to see what that practical solution is,

without a massive de-escalation, and you've got Donald Trump having been Mr. Bellacoast,

and expecting Iran to roll over, and Iran is playing this long and is playing it cleverly,

it knows what the weapon it's got is the straight-of-all moves,

and it is using that to almost blackmail the rest of the world,

and Donald Trump is now finding himself isolated over it.

Yeah, Iran doesn't have to win militarily, it just has to play the long game.

Let's listen to Iran's foreign minister, because curiously,

one of the other things that Trump said at the weekend was,

oh, well, we've had chats, but I'm refusing to compromise on this,

even though they want to. Iran's foreign minister went on the airwaves on CBS and went, uh-uh.

No, we never asked for a ceasefire, and we have never asked even for negotiation.

We are ready to defend ourselves as long as it takes,

and this is what we have done so far, and we continue to do that,

until President Trump comes to the point that this is an illegal war with no victory,

and, you know, there are, you know, people being killed only because

President Trump wants to have fun. This is what he-

Look, I think there'll be people listening to that thinking,

how dare-how dare you lecture another country about the killing of Iranian citizens

when we know that the regime has been the foremost killer of its own people there so far.

And I guess this speaks to the wider issue,

which is if Trump had thought about this for two seconds longer,

if he thought that the way to actually destabilize Iran militarily

was to try and create the environment that allowed for regime change,

then this would naturally have flowed from that.

In other words, do something for the people first.

Don't go in, you know, guns blazing, and be surprised when Iran's got an answer.

Because, of course, they've got an answer.

Yeah, you killed an 86-year-old man,

but now you've got the IRGC involved,

and they have got no intention of changing.

They're going to be, if anything, more hard-line.

And I think to your point, you know, how does Kiernavigate,

the, you know, the British interests,

well, it's clearly not a military escapade in the streets-

in the Straits of Hormuz. Why would it be?

Right? Because there are ships getting through.

Of course, there are ships getting through.

The ships that are getting through are the ones that Iran doesn't consider to be enemies.

So don't put yourself on the side of America in this one.

Otherwise, your oil prices are going to be even further in through the roof.

That takes some navigating.

I mean, that is what has to be navigated.

But look, there's just one other thing about all of this,

which is, you know, we've talked about the Straits of Hormuz endlessly.

And I'm sure that very few Americans,

if they were presented with a map of the world,

would be able to point to where the Straits of Hormuz is,

but it's affecting them directly now,

with the price of fuel petrol pumps.

When they go to fill their car up with gas, the price has gone up.

What's interesting is, in America,

if you want to get Donald Trump's attention,

if you're a lawmaker, what do you do?

How do you tell Donald Trump that he might have to kind of rethink some of this?

You go on Fox News.

And a succession of Republicans have been on Fox News this weekend

to say to the president,

I mean, not saying to the president, but giving an interview

where they're expressing this view,

because this is their belief,

it's the best way to get to Donald Trump,

because Donald Trump will be listening to what's on Fox News.

And there are a growing number of commentators.

There are a growing number of lawmakers who are saying,

what the hell are you doing?

What is the plan here?

And how are you going to stop this before you start ruining the economy

ahead of the midterm elections?

And of course, that is a very narrow, parochial way

of looking at what is potentially World War III.

But you can be sure that those Republicans

are worried about their Senate seats and their House seats.

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The news agents.

So this morning, the Prime Minister has offered help of 53 million pounds

to vulnerable households who've been hit by a shop increase

in the price of heating oil.

And we are now looking at oil prices that today's spike

I think at $106 about to put this into context.

We always talk about the spikes.

What should it be normally?

Sort of 70?

Well, it was $70 a barrel.

About that before going into this.

So it has gone up roughly 40%, 50%.

Yeah, OK.

And this is tricky because consumers who use gas and electricity

have got their bills capped by off-gem.

But when it comes to oil, they're not.

So this is specifically for those households who use oil for their heating.

And that's in rural areas where you're not connected to mains gas.

So what happens is the oil man comes round.

He's got a tanker.

It goes into your tank.

And of course, the price of that is going to go up steeply really, really quickly.

And so those are the people that are...

I suppose at the sharp end of the spear, if you like,

on what some people are already calling Trumpflation.

Because let's face it, it's Donald Trump who started this.

And so I'll be interested to see where the ministers start using the phrase Trumpflation.

I suspect they probably won't have the courage to do that.

But what's happening is that you're seeing all sorts of other things

where it looks like prices could go up.

And one of the things that Emily, you were talking about the other day on the podcast

was about fertilizers, where the chemicals to make fertilizers

are coming through the straight up almost.

And so if you're not getting that, then either farmers are going to have lower yields

on their crops, or they're not going to have the fertilizers at all,

or they're going to pay more for it.

And so food is going to go up.

And so there are all sorts of areas where you're looking at why inflation is set to rise again.

It's only less than two weeks ago that Rachel Reeves made her spring statement.

I mean, has anything aged so badly?

It just looks like an irrelevant document given what we're now seeing two weeks on.

Well, I guess it's not an irrelevant document.

It's a way of comparing the trajectory that we were on.

I inflation at 3% with what's happened since then, which is not her fault, frankly.

You know, it is not this country's fault.

And also on those ships, Helium.

Do you know what Helium is useful?

Well, it balloons.

And funny voices.

Funny voices.

Go on.

Cooling data centers.

Oh, really?

Yeah.

So if you think of all the store that Donald Trump has put by AI and the big tech companies,

there's going to be a lot of unhappy bunnies coming up to Easter.

Who are seeing the Helium that they need to cool data centers stuck in the middle of the Homer Straits.

So you're seeing this in all sorts of ways where although the change hasn't arrived now,

it's the expectation of what's going to happen as a result of this.

That is going to go on way longer, even if they announce there's a ceasefire tomorrow.

There are things that are now built into the system.

So for example, you know, mortgage products that were offered for people hoping to buy a house,

hundreds of the offers have been withdrawn from the banks and the building societies

because they now seem to be too generous because everyone was calculating the interest rates were going to come down.

And offers were being made on, you know, fixed rate terms for three years or five years on the basis of that.

And that's not going to happen now because the trajectory is that people think the inflation will go up.

And therefore the bank will have to raise interest rates.

Yeah, and to your point about Trumpflation, which is this phrase that the trade unions are now starting to use,

according to Bloomberg, I think you ask a good question, which is, you know,

would the ministers dare use it themselves?

I don't think they have to.

They just have to talk about conflict related inflation or an inflation re-wave created by this conflict.

Or something that hints to measures abroad, which are nothing to do with us,

that remind everybody of where this started, where it came from.

You know, if you call it Trumpflation, yeah, he'll just kind of get cross and start yelling at you.

If you just say, well, clearly it is related to the conflict over and over again.

I think you've made your point, haven't you?

Yeah, and I think it's so interesting the way, you know, if you, at the start of this,

all the criticism was on Starma, why aren't you doing more to help America?

Why aren't you doing more to support America?

And that was the very much the voice of the right in this country, which is, you know,

pro-American and actually using the warning run as another stick with which to beat Kia Starma,

rather than thinking whether Trump is right or wrong.

I'm now getting a push notification from the daily telegraph, Trump's greatest miscalculation.

I think it's quite interesting to watch the way that people on the right in Britain

are now starting to talk about Trump's great miscalculation.

Who's the telegraph's first constituency, rural farmers?

Yeah.

All the people that use oil in the heating, all the people with argos, all the rest of it,

those are the telegraph readers, that's their bread and butter.

So if they're seeing the prices go up, well, you know, you heard from GB News in the press conference today saying,

what are you going to do, you know, petrol, petrol pump price?

This is the problem, is that middle England, middle Britain, is at a place where they don't want to see this conflict.

They do not want to see prices go up.

There's virtually nobody running around waving the flag for sort of jumping into bed with Trump now.

And last week we started just raising the idea, and to be fair, it was Tim Shipman in the spectator

who sort of first posted this idea of what happens now between the UK and the EU as a result of this sort of, you know,

cooling with America.

Rachel Reeves is giving the May's lecture tomorrow.

And a lot of people are looking very closely at how she talks about EU alignment.

Nothing more than that, just alignment.

But she gave an interview at the weekend.

And she asked one of these quick fire questions.

And I remember when we were in Davos and we had Keir Starmer sitting down and we said, so, you know,

just to end the interview, what do you prefer, Westminster or Davos?

We said, for Jeremy Corbyn or Peers Morgan, you were at Peers Morgan, then we said Westminster or Davos?

Well, the fairness to Keir Starmer.

The question about Starmer versus Peers Morgan versus Jeremy Corbyn was in the context of who would you rather go and watch Arsenal with?

Yes, sit next to him and ask him, exactly.

So he said, Peers Morgan over to Jeremy Corbyn, well, I think that has gone out to have fruit with him there.

Davos or Westminster, he said Davos.

So Rachel Reeves was asked this at the weekend, a Donald Trump or Ursula von der Leyen, and she says Ursula von der Leyen.

Not even a hedging, not even a kind of like, well, you know, which is what you'd expect maybe six months ago.

They feel, I think, more liberated to be where the British people are on Trump.

I, thanks, but no thanks.

And that has been the great calculation of Keir Starmer, and we've criticised him on many, many things.

But he's absolutely determination that he's not going to choose between America and Europe,

that you can still maintain a relationship with America, but be close to Europe.

Actually, what's happened is I think that over the course of the past, you know, year of Trump's presidency,

it's causing Starmer to reevaluate a bit, and the need to be closer to Europe is probably more in Britain's long-term interest now,

because you have got someone who is such an unreliable figure in the White House.

Who, can you depend on him?

Can you do a deal with him and rely on him to stick to it?

What's happened over tariffs has been chaotic.

Everything about this has been chaos, and you're dealing with a chaos creator in the White House,

and Europe, for all its boringness and for all its regulation, looks quite safe.

Yeah, I do think that Trump is making the equation pretty easy now.

I mean, you know, when we started out, there was always that sense of, like,

understand the nuance involved, understand that there is good and bad that he might do this,

but do that. He might be impetuous, but he also understands how to break rules

and be an iconoclast and get actions and get sort of get things done.

You know, was that the thing we always said, oh, you know, the thing about Trump is he gets things done.

He's not bogged down in bureaucracy.

And I feel like, yes, I mean, who knows?

Could everything suddenly come right for him?

I'm prepared always to say, you know, there is a chance that it all turns out right

and in America's interests within the next two months.

But I find it much, much harder to believe that now.

I find it much harder to buy the idea that there is any form of plan,

any form of long-term strategy, any form, you know, the whole joke about the board of peace is like,

oh, yeah, they're board of peace, right?

A month after the board of peace was started, it's like, yep, he's just proved they are board of peace.

What do you do for your Tony Blair?

And you've said, yes, and you're sitting on the board of peace and you're watching this now.

What do you do if you're, you know, the countries that sort of found themselves paying a billion pounds to sit on the board of peace, right?

And you're just looking at an absolute fuck-wittery in the Middle East.

The one place that we all know is a tinderbox at the best of times.

And you just get, you know, muggins here who wades in and is sort of wellies

and doesn't realise that one movement will automatically start a whole chain reaction that he hadn't foreseen.

On this podcast, two weeks ago, kind of when we were first kind of getting our heads round, what was happening in Iran, I remember,

look, I really hope Trump's right.

I really hope that what comes out of this is a liberal democratic Iran where people can go to the polls where people can express their sexuality

in the way that they want without fear and persecution, that women can dress how they want without being persecuted and imprisoned by the moral police and all the rest of it.

Do I think that will happen? I have two weeks ago, I thought maybe there was a 5% chance of that happening.

Today, it looks infinitesimally smaller, the idea that this is what is going to result at the end of it.

I hope to God I'm wrong, but everything we've seen so far has been so in chaos and very little in the way of a plan of any description for what comes next.

We'll be back in a moment.

Tyler Reddick here from 2311 Racing.

Another checkered flag for the books.

Time to celebrate with Jamba.

Jump in at JambaCasino.com.

Let's Jamba.

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CCNC.

21 Plus.

Is Starmer ending his abusive relationship with Trump?

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