Is The Great Rotation From Gold to Bitcoin Upon Us?

Today’s letter is brought to you by MoonPay + Exodus!

Crypto should be simple, secure, and rewarding. With MoonPay and Exodus, it is.Exodus built one of the most intuitive wallets in the world, and is now a public company on the NYSE whose team is paid entirely in Bitcoin.Experience how easy crypto can be with Exodus and MoonPay. Buy, sell, or stake your favorite assets directly in-app using Apple Pay, PayPal, or your card of choice. No complex exchanges. No long waits. Just instant access to crypto in 180+ countries, powered by MoonPay.Whether you’re stacking sats or exploring new tokens, Exodus gives you the tools to manage it, and MoonPay provides the bridge to get there.

Trade crypto the easy way with MoonPay + Exodus.

To investors,

All eyes are on gold and bitcoin as capital allocators try to figure out what is happening in the world. The narrative coming into 2025 was gold is a great asset, but it does a better job preventing losses in your portfolio than it does driving outperformance. This is where bitcoin came in.

The decentralized asset was pitched as a digital gold, or as I have previously called it “gold with wings.” The idea has been that bitcoin boasts the same sound money principles as the precious metal, but bitcoin’s unique properties (including the finite supply, the bitcoin halving feature, and the relatively young life since inception) should ensure bitcoin would continue outperforming gold.

That hasn’t happened in 2025 though.

In fact, gold has appreciated about 60% year-to-date, which is the best performance in nearly a half century. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello highlights “gold is now the best performing major asset class over the last 20 years with an annualized return of over 11%.”

This performance, particularly the last 11 months, has driven central bank’s allocation to gold significantly higher. Charlie writes “gold now accounts for over 20% of global central bank reserves, the highest share we’ve seen in nearly three decades.”

This central bank demand is important because it overcame the fact that US retail investors have essentially been net sellers of gold and silver since the big rally in price started in March 2024.

But here is the part of the story that is confusing many investors — bitcoin and gold have historically traded in tight correlation. When gold has gone up, bitcoin has followed approximately 100 days later.

These two assets benefit from the same tailwinds of higher national debts, undisciplined monetary policy, and geopolitical uncertainty. In response to these issues, investors prefer to allocate larger percentages of their portfolio to sound money assets. Assets that are outside the legacy system and assets that no one can create more of.

So why is gold responding to the recent global developments, but bitcoin has lagged? Is it as simple as central banks have a lot of money, so they are driving gold to outperform because these large pools of capital are not allocating to bitcoin yet?

Sure, that is part of it. But there is something more nuanced at play here. Most people are too focused on gold’s outperformance and forgetting to check bitcoin’s relative underperformance.

Joe Carlasare shows the current bitcoin bull market has significantly underperformed past bitcoin bull markets. We haven’t seen the breathtaking price appreciation we have come to expect, which means the market has been void of the blow-off tops driven by the retail frenzy.

If you have been buying bitcoin for speculative purposes, especially if the most attractive quality was it’s perceived asymmetry, you are very disappointed right now. I wouldn’t blame you. Bitcoin has not delivered on that promise so far in this cycle.

But if you were buying bitcoin as a defensive asset to protect your purchasing power from currency debasement and out of control inflation, then you likely have been good with the results. Bitcoin is up about 1,500% since January 2020 and the asset has appreciated more than 18% in 2025.

The asymmetry of bitcoin came from the high degree of risk an investor was taking when they bought the asset. You get paid for the risk you take. But bitcoin is not risky anymore. It is very obvious that bitcoin is not going away, the government is not going to outlaw it, and bitcoin will eventually seep into every sophisticated investors portfolio.

So you should expect bitcoin’s return to come down from past bull markets. This doesn’t make bitcoin unattractive at all. Instead, it means bitcoin’s rise is essentially pre-ordained at this point. It will take time, but bitcoin is going to win on a global stage as one of the top store of value assets. Gold will do well alongside bitcoin. These two assets are not in competition with each other, but rather they serve as brothers in the fight against currency debasement.

Coexistence is a good thing for both assets.

But in the short-term, we may have hit a turning point this weekend. We are most likely to see a large rotation from the gold trade into bitcoin through the end of the year. Joao Wedson writes:

“Bottom signals in the BTC/Gold ratio are extremely rare, and they tend to appear during high-volatility moments and sharp BTC drawdowns. Well, we’re exactly there right now.

The blue signal marks the current bottom, revealed by a normalized oscillator that’s basically screaming: “time to sell gold and buy Bitcoin.” The green signal, on the other hand, is even stronger. It shows up when both metrics align at their lows, and historically those moments have been the best BTC/Gold opportunities ever recorded.

My message goes out to institutional gold accumulators: if I were you, I’d take a close look at this chart. The risk-reward profile of Bitcoin looks far more attractive right now, especially considering the current gold euphoria.

Use this chart however you want. But mark this moment — it could be remembered as the turning point between Gold and BTC.”

So there you have it — gold has done very well in 2025, but past performance is not indicative of future performance. We may be on the doorsteps of the great rotation from gold to bitcoin. If that theory comes true, bitcoin will likely have a fireworks ending to the year.

Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I’ll talk to you tomorrow.

- Anthony Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Bitcoin Crashed - Here Is Why Jordi Visser Is Still Buying

Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.

In this conversation, we discuss the banking crisis, credit contraction, and what’s driving fear in today’s markets, Jordi shares what he’s buying, whether he’s worried about a broader slowdown, and we also touch on OpenAI’s breakthroughs, new AI models, and whether “the aliens are real.”

Enjoy!

Podcast Sponsors

* Figure – Lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% at 50% LTV and 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin or SOL. Check out Figure and their Crypto Backed Loans! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply. Visit figure.com for more information.

* Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithm tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

* Defi Development Corp - DeFi Development Corp. (Nasdaq: DFDV) is building the first Solana-focused public treasury, giving investors exponential exposure to Solana’s growth.

* easyBitcoin - Stack sats with easyBitcoin.app—earn 1% extra on buys, 2% annual rewards and 4.5% APY on USD. Download it at easybitcoin.app today.

* Bitlayer - Bitlayer is powering Bitcoin beyond just a store of value, making Bitcoin DeFi a reality while staying true to its core principles of security and decentralization. Learn more about Bitlayer at https://x.com/BitlayerLabs

* Bitizenship – Get EU citizenship through Portugal’s Golden Visa, maintaining Bitcoin exposure. Book a free strategy call at bitizenship.com/pomp.

* Bitwise Asset Management - Crypto specialist asset manager with more than $10 billion client assets and more than 30 crypto solutions across ETFs, index funds, alpha strategies, staking, and more. Learn more at bitwiseinvestments.com

* Xapo Bank: Fully licensed private bank and virtual assets services provider that integrates traditional finance and Bitcoin. Earn up to 3.6% in BTC over USD Savings. Spend globally with a debit card that gives up to 1% cashback in BTC. The Pomp Audience Exclusive: Receive $150 discount when they join with this link.

* Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit Simple Mining here.

* Core - Earn trustless Bitcoin yield. No bridging. No lending. Just HODLing. Begin Staking Your Bitcoin.

* BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 75+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $1,000 in rewards.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit pomp.substack.com/subscribe