Is The U.S. Government CRASHING Bitcoin? | Bitcoin Simply

Something crazy has been happening to Bitcoin.

Every time the US government makes a major announcement, Bitcoin crashes.

When the strategic Bitcoin reserve was announced, Bitcoin crashed.

When the US sees Bitcoin from a Cambodian hacking operation, Bitcoin crashed.

When the US government sees Bitcoin after the Maduro takeover, Bitcoin crashed.

So it raises the question, almost nobody is asking.

Has the US government been responsible for Bitcoin's biggest sell-off?

This wasn't on my radar until listening to a fascinating interview.

And if that's true, then the recent drop may not have been a sign of weakness at all.

Bitcoin isn't just another asset.

It's the asset people run towards when the global system becomes unstable.

Today, we're going to break down why Bitcoin may be selling after the government's actions.

Why three macro experts believe Bitcoin can reach one and a half million dollars?

And why Bitcoin is the asset of instability in the age of AI?

This is Dante Cocoa Bitcoin Simply.

Let's go.

The Bitcoin sell-offs are interesting.

So I think something to think through, and this is one of our theories,

but we haven't been able to substantiate this yet,

is if you look over the course the last year, year and a half,

the biggest drawdowns in Bitcoin have happened to run a few strategic points in time.

So the first point was when Trump passed the strategic Bitcoin reserve on the executive order.

He gave the government agencies, I think, initial 30 days plus another 30 day on top of that,

to audit their books and then report back to the strategic reserve,

how much Bitcoin they held on their books.

Then they have to submit it to the treasury for the strategic reserve.

Well, over that 60 day period, Bitcoin went from 100,000,

and I think drew down to the high 80s, low 90s.

So that was the first drawdown.

The next big one that we saw was right around when Bitcoin had its all-time high,

and right around that time as well,

one of the government agencies seized 127,200 Bitcoin approximately

from a Cambodian hacking group that was doing these pig butchering scams

and stealing people's Bitcoin.

The agency received it at that point in time,

Bitcoin drew down significantly.

And then we invade Venezuela, and there's a allegedly 60 billion of Bitcoin and Venezuela

at that point in time, Bitcoin draws down significantly.

What do you say?

So although I haven't been able to substantiate it,

one of my ideas is that if you're a government agency,

and you know that if you seize Bitcoin from a listed activity,

and then you're required after a certain period of time

to transition that over to the Bitcoin strategic reserve,

you don't want to do that theoretically,

because that's dollars out of your pocket sheet in your budget.

So if you seize that Bitcoin and you sell some or all of it,

you get to keep those dollars.

And some of this is tens of billions of dollars at Bitcoin.

And so I think that's possibly one thing that's going on.

I haven't been able to substantiate this,

but the timing is very indicative that every time one of these big seizures

of the initial effectuation of the strategic reserve occurred,

that Bitcoin drew down pretty hard.

And so that's something I've been kind of bounced around the back of my head

that maybe these government agencies are selling a portion of it

because they want to keep those dollars on their balance sheet.

This idea of the US government crashing Bitcoin's price

wasn't even on my radar.

But when you look at the charts, it actually lines up.

In January, when the US made it clear that they were going to announce

the strategic Bitcoin reserve,

Bitcoin crashed from 108 to about 80k.

We never did get an audit of how much Bitcoin the US government actually owned.

And Bo Heinz, who was responsible for this,

suddenly leaves office after being a superstar

to run Tethers US operations, kind of interesting.

In 2020, the US was involved in a cyber attack

that happened on a Bitcoin mining exchange in the Cambodian area.

And this is when it was reported,

a Cambodian billionaire Chen Z was involved in a crypto fraud scheme.

And somehow the US government was able to hack the wallet of this US Cambodian billionaire,

who reportedly owned between 15 and 25 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin.

And that's when the price crashed from 126k down to 86k.

And then, during the Maduro takeover,

it was reported that Venezuela owned 60 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin,

mostly to avoid US sanctions while trading oil with China.

And that's when Bitcoin crashed from 95k to the levels that we're seeing now.

Now I'm not saying that the government is manipulating Bitcoin.

But when billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin

at these low cost basis points hit the market,

the price is going to react violently.

But here's the key point.

Short-term shocks don't impact Bitcoin's long-term trajectory.

Bitcoin is actually sitting at one of the most oversold levels

that has been in more than a decade.

And every time we've seen this level historically,

it's a major turning point.

And right now, we're at a major turning point.

Listen to how macro trader and investor,

Jordy Vesser, is handling and positioning his portfolio

to deal with the volatility that's coming forward.

And we reprice volatility, and we reprice credit spreads,

and we reprice the multiple of the S&P.

That's what I believe is happening.

And I do believe the Fed is, or whether or not it's not the Fed,

the Treasury, I do think the private credit situation

is going to need a solution at some point.

And when that solution comes in,

we all know who the fastest horse in the race is

when you come out, which is Bitcoin.

So right now, I'm adding things into my portfolio

for volatility to keep the structural positions I want.

And then when I think the coast is clear,

and the sixth contract of VIX gets up to 30,

which is where I think it needs to go,

we're only at 23.

So I think we have months of this left.

When it gets up there, I'll get out of my volatility.

And I'll probably be adding Bitcoin and stuff into that,

especially as the private credit situation gets worse.

The worst the private credit situation gets,

the better it is for Bitcoin.

And the reason is you're connecting the two things

that I think need to happen.

Number one, there is no more cutting rates

to make the economy grow, because we're already growing.

So this is not the Jeff Booth thesis

that we have to come in during a deflationary period.

But what it is is what I always believe would happen.

The truest AI trade is Bitcoin.

And the reason is because eventually AI destroys everything.

It's Joseph Schumpeter said,

because capitalism gets swallowed up

by the exponential innovation.

And when that happens,

you don't have a moat around your business anymore.

So what is the best asset that has no story or narrative

or anything?

It isn't there.

It's just a place to go put your money for appreciation.

And I think Bitcoin represents the fiat system demise

at the same time as being the money.

So I think that's the way people should deal with this

and get to daily stoic and trust me.

Everything will be fine.

Now here's where this gets interesting.

Jess Knighter, typically a Bitcoin hater.

He says that Bitcoin provides asymmetric returns to the upside.

I would buy a ton of Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin gets down around 50,000 or less

if the market overshoots on the downside,

I'm going to pack up the truck for Bitcoin

or something like silver.

Because those are the things that you're going to own

in a period of instability.

Gross instability in a whole lot of different ways,

including the economy and the marketplace.

So yes, there's a lot of caveats and a lot of ifs

and a lot of probabilities.

But as those probabilities start to pile up

and it looks like more concretely,

that's where we're going,

that's where you really want to be.

All the traditional tools that safe haven

to get you through unstable periods.

That's cool to hear you talk about Bitcoin in that way

because you've always been a little skeptical of Bitcoin.

Is it just the fact that it's pulled down so much

from its highs that you're interested in this point

or have your opinions change on it slightly?

No, my problem with Bitcoin is not really a problem.

It's understanding what it is and where it's going.

Not price, but actual function.

Bitcoin is not replacing the US dollar.

Bitcoin is competing with gold

as a safe haven portfolio asset.

That's why it behaves a lot like the NASDAQ.

It's competing with the stock market or gold.

So people look to Bitcoin as potentially a,

you know, since it has a relatively small market cap,

there's potentially,

there's more and more people get interested

for any reason,

doesn't matter what it is.

There's a lot of upside potential from Bitcoin.

Even though it doesn't replace the dollar,

it doesn't become the next big currency,

it can still become a highly appreciative asset,

a speculative asset or a store of value assets, certainly.

So if Bitcoin goes down with that level of price appreciation,

the asymmetry works in your favor

because there are so many long run positives

to owning Bitcoin.

If we see Bitcoin at 20,000,

you've got to be buying every last thing

that you can get.

When markets get unstable,

people search for assets outside of the traditional system.

And historically, this has been gold, silver, land, real estate.

But Bitcoin provides digital scarcity in the face

when anything can be replicated or copied in the age of AI.

It provides portable wealth,

borderless ownership,

which is why people will believe

that Bitcoin is the digital gold.

And if you know that you own digital gold,

well, what if you wanted to unlock liquidity

in your assets without selling them?

If you've been in Bitcoin long enough,

you know that selling your Bitcoin

is one of the worst decisions that you can make.

Let me give you an example,

like Timoth,

who sold his Bitcoin in 2014 to buy a mansion.

That Bitcoin today is worth a billion dollars.

The real estate development in Lake Tahoe,

called Martis Camp.

Beautiful.

And I had owned a couple of lots.

And I said, you know,

it would be great if I actually could prove

that you could buy real estate with Bitcoin.

And I called the guys a bit pan.

And they were like, yeah,

we can facilitate this transaction, no problem.

I bought a piece of land.

And then again, I thought,

this is an interesting story

and the Wall Street Journal wrote about it.

Now that piece of land is a billion dollars.

But you cannot calculate this way, right?

So it's easy.

I calculated this way.

No, you can't calculate it that way

because it's stupidest purchase ever.

No, no, no, no.

That's why companies like Leiden exist.

They allow you to take out Bitcoin back loans,

meaning you keep your Bitcoin

while accessing the liquidity that you need.

No selling, no tax event,

just your Bitcoin capital converted into Fiat.

Go to learn.leiden.au,

slash simply to get started.

And quick reminder, if you're going to own Bitcoin,

you need to actually control your Bitcoin,

which means self-custeting your Bitcoin.

And that's where the Bitcoin way comes in.

The Bitcoin way helps individuals and families

learn how to secure their Bitcoin privately,

safely, securely,

and do so on a note at their own house

while maintaining their own keys.

If you don't know what that means,

we'll schedule a free third of minute

meeting with their team.

They'll walk you through step-by-step

exactly what I'm talking about.

Go to the bitcoinway.com,

slash simply Bitcoin.

Two macro traders in this episode

have come to the same conclusion.

Bitcoin is the trade that you want to have on

in this age of instability.

But an even bigger Bitcoin advocate in OG,

Adam Beck says that Bitcoin will reach parity with gold.

And at that point,

Bitcoin's going to be worth $1.5 million per coin.

Actually, Bitcoin is an asset class

has stood out from everything

every other asset class for the lost decade,

generally, in having the highest annualized return,

the best shop ratio.

So it's really being an outlier

if you can adapt to the volatility.

And that was the thesis that Sean Bill,

a BSTRCIO, put to the pension fund,

when he put it into the pension fund.

And in that case,

he started in 2019.

It took him until 2021 to get Bitcoin in there.

But the point there was that if they would buy and hold

around 2% was his recommendation at that time.

And hold it that could fill that alone,

could fill the unfunded liabilities of the pension fund.

And if it fell, it's a small impact on the fund.

So it's really, from that point of view,

it's a way to improve overall return,

while Bitcoin's on its adoption curve,

I think that's the biggest driver.

And since that time,

a number of other firms of BlackRock,

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America,

have put out their own recommendations

for Bitcoin allocation and model portfolios.

So it's interesting to see people following that,

already half a decade later,

but the institutions are starting to form an investment thesis

and model portfolios for Bitcoin.

It's very difficult to predict Bitcoin price.

But another comparison is the digital gold

and prospect for Bitcoin to reach parity with gold

that already puts you maybe about a million and a half per coin.

Bitcoin has already been the best performing asset

over the last decade.

An adoption is still early.

The demand signals are rising rapidly,

as people are searching how to buy Bitcoin

at levels that we've never seen before.

At the same time, people are searching

can't sell my house,

which shows you the state of the economy that we're in.

Traditional assets are becoming harder and harder to move.

And Bitcoin moves instantly.

So let's return to the question

that we started with at the beginning of the episode.

Has the US government contributed

to these large Bitcoin sell-offs?

Possibly.

But here's the reality.

Every sell-off causes supply shocks.

But that's historically been temporary.

The long-term demand keeps getting stronger and stronger.

Let's go back to 2014 when Timoth bought that house

that his Bitcoin position would now be worth a billion dollars.

In that same year,

50 Cent sold his albums in accepted Bitcoin in exchange

and had over 700 Bitcoin at the time

that would now be worth over 47 million dollars

if he didn't sell.

You at your last album,

you actually accepted Bitcoin for it.

Yeah, yeah, you know all money's money.

Yeah, that's a very good way of putting it.

The biggest mistake in Bitcoin history

that you can make is always thinking short-term.

Bitcoin isn't the stability trade.

It's the instability trade.

If you can learn to stomach the volatility,

when the market breaks,

Bitcoin will move violently.

And the more the world becomes unstable,

the more a neutral reserve asset like Bitcoin will become valuable.

And so, if you're thinking about accumulating more Bitcoin

for the long term,

one of the best ways to do that

isn't just buying Bitcoin on an exchange.

It's through Bitcoin mining.

That's where SaaS mining comes in.

They help you to purchase a machine,

host them in their professional facilities,

maintain the hardware,

and send Bitcoin directly to your wallet.

Mining also has major tax advantages.

You're not just buying Bitcoin,

you're decentralizing it,

and you're producing it.

Check out SaaS mining by using the QR code.

If you enjoy this content

that connects macroeconomics in Bitcoin,

make sure you subscribe to the channel.

You're going to understand what's happening in the world

before everyone else does

and you're going to position yourself accordingly.

This is Dante Coco Bitcoin Simply.

Happy stacking.