January 28, 2007: Flawed Mathematical Models - Orrin Pilkey

Art Bell welcomes Dr. Orrin Pilkey, a Duke University professor of geology and expert on shoreline processes, to examine the reliability of mathematical models used to shape major public policy decisions. Pilkey argues that while models can reveal broad trends and general directions, society places far too much confidence in their precise numerical predictions, particularly when applied to complex natural systems.

The discussion ranges from climate change modeling to the controversial decision to store nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain near Art's home in Pahrump. Pilkey considers climate models the most honest among those he studied, praising the UN panel's transparency about their limitations. However, he warns that specific projections for temperature increases and sea level rises should be taken with a large grain of salt. He also notes that the Bush administration exploits model uncertainties for political purposes while ignoring the overwhelming scientific consensus.

The first hour features open lines covering the UFO flap at O'Hare Airport and beyond, mysterious ice blocks falling from clear skies in Florida, smoking cessation research involving the brain's insula region, and Art's personal update on his wife Airyn's pregnancy with their daughter Asia.