英语新闻丨Japan's remilitarization a fiscal dead end

The latest public opinion poll in Japan is a caution to the Sanae Takaichi government that it shouldn't allow the military buildup to consume the country's economic vigor. The Takaichi Cabinet's approval rating has fallen to 50.2 percent, its lowest level since she took office, while 71.7 percent of respondents say they are worried about Japan's fiscal health.

日本最新民意调查是对高市早苗政府的一个警示：不应让军事扩张消耗国家的经济活力。高市内阁的支持率已降至50.2%，为其上任以来最低水平，同时71.7%的受访者表示担忧日本的财政健康状况。

The immediate trigger may be a proposed cut in the consumption tax on food. The majority of respondents were worried the tax reduction could make it difficult for the government to sustain its social security system as Takaichi has failed to offer any alternative source of revenue to fill the fiscal gap to be left by the tax cut.
近期的直接导火索可能是拟议中的食品消费税削减。多数受访者担心，减税可能使政府难以维持社会保障体系，因为高市早苗未能提出任何替代收入来源来填补减税留下的财政缺口。

In fact, Takaichi appears to be promising everything at once: lower taxes, higher military spending, massive industrial investment, stronger security ties and faster growth. Japan's balance sheet, however, will not play ball.
事实上，高市早苗似乎同时承诺了一切：降低税收、增加军费、大规模产业投资、强化安全同盟和加快经济增长。然而，日本的资产负债表不会配合。

She wants to protect households from inflation while maintaining an expansive fiscal and investment agenda. But the most conventional way to fight persistent inflation and support a weak yen is to allow the central bank to tighten monetary policy. The problem is that Japan cannot raise interest rates without confronting its debt mountain. This is the bind at the heart of Takaichi-nomics.
她希望保护家庭免受通胀影响，同时维持扩张性的财政和投资议程。但对抗持续通胀和支撑疲软日元最常规的方法是允许央行收紧货币政策。问题在于，日本无法在不面对巨额债务的情况下提高利率。这正是“高市经济学”核心的困境。

Takaichi's answer has increasingly been to promise investment and military spending as engines of "national renewal". But Japan has an aging population, a shrinking workforce, weak domestic demand and a shortage of resources. The proposed 370 trillion yen ($2.32 trillion) investment program over 14 years may help strategic industries, but no amount of government subsidy can substitute indefinitely for productivity growth, labor reform and a sustainable social security system.
高市早苗的应对之策越来越多地是将投资和军费开支作为“国家复兴”的引擎。但日本面临人口老龄化、劳动力萎缩、国内需求疲软和资源短缺等问题。拟议中为期14年、总额370万亿日元（约合2.32万亿美元）的投资计划可能有助于战略产业，但再多的政府补贴也无法无限期替代生产率增长、劳动力改革和可持续的社会保障体系。

The proposed domestic investment is to be accompanied by the cut in the food consumption tax from 8 percent to 1 percent. A complete elimination would represent roughly 5 trillion yen a year in lost revenue, so even the proposed reduction would leave a substantial hole. Meanwhile, the fiscal year 2027 military budget request stands at a record 8.9 trillion yen, and the final tally is on track to exceed 10 trillion yen as additional appropriations pile on.
拟议的国内投资将伴随食品消费税从8%降至1%的减税措施。完全取消该税种每年将损失约5万亿日元的收入，因此即便是拟议中的削减也会留下巨大的财政缺口。与此同时，2027财年的军费预算申请已达创纪录的8.9万亿日元，随着追加拨款的叠加，最终总额有望突破10万亿日元。

This is where the rhetoric of "national strength" collides with the realities of the country's national debt. Japan already carries one of the heaviest public-debt burdens in the developed world. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield recently climbed to 2.95 percent, its highest level in about three decades. The Japanese Finance Ministry is preparing 36.6 trillion yen for government-bond principal and interest payments in fiscal year 2027, a 17 percent increase from the previous year.
这正是“国家实力”的豪言壮语与国债现实相碰撞之处。日本已是发达国家中公共债务负担最重的国家之一。日本10年期国债收益率近日升至2.95%，为约三十年来的最高水平。日本财务省正为2027财年准备36.6万亿日元的国债本息支付，较上一年增长17%。

The danger is a feedback loop: more spending requires more borrowing; more borrowing can raise investors' concerns; higher yields increase interest costs; higher interest costs consume fiscal space; and shrinking fiscal space makes every subsequent policy choice harder.
危险在于形成了一个反馈循环：更多支出需要更多借贷；更多借贷可能引发投资者的担忧；更高的收益率推高利息成本；更高的利息成本挤占财政空间；而缩小的财政空间使后续每一项政策选择都更加困难。

The Takaichi government has invested a considerable stake in promoting Japan's military, economic security and national identity. It has pressed ahead with controversial legislation on imperial succession and a backup capital, while its security policy is a de facto neo-militarist to-do list.
高市政府在推进日本军事、经济安全和民族认同方面投入了大量精力。它强推了关于皇位继承和备份首都的争议性立法，而其安全政策实质上是一份新军国主义的待办清单。

Yet unlike the right-wing forces, voters appear less interested in recovering yesterday's military "glory" than paying tomorrow's grocery bills.
然而，与右翼势力不同，选民似乎对恢复昨日的军事“荣光”兴趣不大，更关心如何支付明天的生活账单。

In other words, Takaichi's main interest is remilitarization, while issues such as people's livelihoods and alleviating the burden on households take a back seat. The poll numbers on historical issues indicate that Japanese society is not unanimously behind her neo-militarist agenda. That is a big political gap.
换言之，高市早苗的主要兴趣在于重新军事化，而民众生计和减轻家庭负担等问题则被置于次要位置。有关历史问题的民调数据表明，日本社会并未一致支持她的新军国主义议程。这是一个巨大的政治裂痕。

The strongest mandate in the world cannot repeal arithmetic. Takaichi's ruling coalition may have won a Lower House majority, but it still faces resistance in the Upper House, and her popularity is already losing some of its protective cushion.
世界上最强大的政治授权也无法废除算术法则。高市的执政联盟虽在众议院赢得多数席位，但在参议院仍面临阻力，而她的支持率已在失去部分保护屏障。

Takaichi vows to make Japan stronger. But strength is not measured by the number of missiles, submarines and warplanes a government can finance, but whether a country can pay its bills, maintain policy credibility and improve its people's well-being.
高市早苗誓言要让日本更强大。但强大的衡量标准不是政府能资助多少导弹、潜艇和战机，而是一个国家能否支付账单、保持政策可信度并改善民众福祉。

No country can become stronger in the long run by confusing military expenditure with economic vitality. Takaichi has a choice between political theater and economic discipline.
长远来看，没有任何国家能通过将军事开支与经济活力混为一谈而变得更强。高市早苗需要在政治秀场和经济纪律之间做出选择。

But even as the Japanese public grapples with the rising cost of living, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi visited Australia and India last week, advocating Japan's "counterstrike capabilities" and promoting weapons exports. These moves reflect Takaichi is recklessly pursuing the wrong choice of expanding military and related industries while trying to cut taxes.
然而，就在日本民众应对生活成本上升之际，日本防卫大臣小泉进次郎上周访问了澳大利亚和印度，鼓吹日本的“反击能力”并推动武器出口。这些举动反映出高市早苗正在不计后果地追求错误的道路——在削减税收的同时扩张军事及关联产业。

The more rational choice would be to embrace the trade-offs required for "national renewal": a credible tax base, structural reform, monetary-policy independence and spending that prioritizes the economy's long-term capacity. The neo-militarist drive should be discarded.
更理性的选择应该是接受“国家复兴”所需的权衡取舍：可靠的税基、结构性改革、货币政策的独立性，以及优先考虑经济长期能力的支出安排。新军国主义的驱动力应当被摒弃。

Japan's strained fiscal reality should serve as a stark warning to Takaichi: sacrificing public welfare for military expansion is a path to ruin. The problem, however, is that you can never wake someone who is pretending to be asleep.
日本紧张的财政现实应当成为对高市早苗的严厉警告：以牺牲公共福利为代价追求军事扩张是一条毁灭之路。然而，问题在于，你永远叫不醒一个装睡的人。

bind /baɪnd/困境

aging population /ˈeɪdʒɪŋ ˌpɒpjʊˈleɪʃən/人口老龄化

military budget request /ˈmɪlɪtəri ˈbʌdʒɪt rɪˈkwest/军费预算申请

additional appropriations /əˈdɪʃənəl əˌprəʊpriˈeɪʃənz/追加拨款

rhetoric /ˈretərɪk/豪言壮语

principal and interest payments /ˈprɪnsəpəl ənd ˈɪntrəst ˈpeɪmənts/本息支付

feedback loop /ˈfiːdbæk luːp/反馈循环