Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast 3/26/26--Kellie Reilly/Weekend Preview

This is the Jason Beam horse racing podcast brought to you by Twin Spires.

Here's your host, Jason Beam.

All right, I'm a good Thursday morning to you all.

Come in to the James Beam horse racing podcast brought to you by Twin Spires weekend.

Preview-ish day of the week.

I'm ready for the weekend.

I'm ready for my day off tomorrow.

I'm going to go to the Tampa Bay Lightning game tomorrow against the mighty Seattle Kraken,

my hometown team.

It's funny.

Whenever I tell people I like hockey, they say, oh, you a Kraken fan, I was like, I left

Seattle before they came around and so like, I have no affiliation with them at all other

than their, you know, their location.

And so no, I don't really have a hockey team.

I kind of watch the league, which is a, I think it's not the optimum way to watch a sport,

but it is kind of a peaceful way because I feel like I end up rooting for storylines.

There's a lot of that in horse racing, too, right?

Because it's not like there's, there's, there's 30 teams, right?

There's 15,000 horses running and, you know, hundreds of barns and hundreds of owners and

hundreds of jockeys and it's not so team-oriented.

But like baseball, I'm a Mariners fan, but I just love the sport.

And I think horse racing, when you're talking about fanship, there's, there's probably

a lot of that.

You have your favorites, but I think in general, you know, if a race comes on, it will

Rogers on a Tuesday, do they run Tuesdays?

I hope so.

And, you know, if I got a program in front of me, like, I can find a horse I might like

or a story I might like or whatever.

It's kind of a neat part of that, but yeah, I've never really been a fanatic of any kind

with sports.

I feel like I just like, I like the environment.

I like the camaraderie.

I like the community of sport.

And, but, you know, like, when the Mariners, I would say when the Mariners lost last year

in the ALCS, that was probably the most bummed I've been for a sporting event in a long

time.

Zenyatta getting beat by blame was the hardest I'd ever hit my hand on a desk.

I just remember going, come on, come on, damn it.

Smack in the desk at Portland Meadows in the main office.

And that was the last time I remember, like, it's just, you know, no financial involvement,

no bet, nothing, just rooting for her.

And she didn't win.

But I went back and watched Zenyatta's, like, her career races, you know, there's a few

different versions on YouTube.

There's a few of them.

You can watch the whole race and a few of them, they're just the stretch calls.

Man, it is, it is fun to watch.

It's so neat, like, the first race, it's like Hollywood Park and David Flores.

And here comes Zenyatta.

She's going to win my two and three quarters, you know, Vic calls the win.

And then the second race, she makes her big move and he goes, here's a future superstar,

Zenyatta.

And then that's the last of quiet Vic.

Because once, once she gets going to the stakes, I think she goes to Santa, I need a next.

But once she gets back to Hollywood, here's Zenyatta.

She's the Zen master, I'm just going nuts, man.

Playoff Vic, what he was, and his, what Vic, what Vic had is Colin 90 or, you know,

not Colin 90, Colin grade one races back and, you know, 10, 15 years ago, I, there was

nobody I looked forward to hearing from more.

I, I, I love listening to Vic call big races.

And I'm glad he's calling it, uh, and turf paradise nowadays.

But anyways, good to be with you here.

We will have Kelly Riley here in a short moment, a little bit of a longer international

radar than our normal week, usually shoot for around eight to ten minutes.

Uh, but with all of the stuff going on with the Dubai World Cup coming up this weekend,

uh, Kelly touched on several of the races from Dubai, uh, obviously there's some, some

shifts and who went and who didn't go because of the, uh, all the, the world going on over

there.

And so, uh, we'll, uh, we'll talk with Kelly about that here in a bit.

I do want to talk a little more because we didn't really talk about the actual Arkansas

Derby the other day with Emily.

I feel like it's always better to have just a general handicap in conversations because

I feel like she's such a great resource for that.

And, um, you know, it was also Monday and like who's, who's locked in on their, uh, their

picks and plays for, for Saturday.

I know that a lot of people push for earlier entries and like the week out and stuff like

that.

And most of those people are the media.

I feel like the John Q horse player, I don't think is needing a week for the races because

if you're a regular player, you're playing on Saturday and Sunday.

You're not looking ahead to next Saturday.

So I think Monday would be the perfect Monday for Saturday would be the perfect thing.

But, um, you know, I didn't understand also that Mondays and Tuesdays are usually when

the race office wants to take their day off and people want a day off.

So I, uh, I get that as well.

Uh, we'll talk, uh, some Arkansas Derby.

I didn't want to touch on the Gulf Stream oaks as well.

Um, the obviously big race for the three-year-old Phillies coming up in, uh, that division

is we get closer to the first Friday in May.

It is May 1st this year too, right?

Because I always want to say the first Friday in May, but there's every so often the Derby's

on May 1st.

And so the oaks is actually in April, but this year it's, uh, the oaks is on May 1st and

the Derby on May 2nd.

But, um, some nice horses coming up the Gulf Stream park oaks, so I want to, uh, want

to touch on that.

I, uh, I got to, somebody a while back made a comment, um, about having a starter on

the show.

And I know we had Scott Jordan on the show a while back and Scott, uh, was the long time

church.

Well, not long time.

But he was around for, God, I mean, gosh, I guess he was been there for, uh, like what,

20 years because, uh, they did just appoint a new starter in March.

Caleb Hayes.

So this will be his first meat and, um, I believe, yeah, I think Scott Jordan was there from

like, oh, seven or eight, because I remember Scott took over for, uh, Raju Nagel, because

Luke, Luke Krabbosch used to always say Raju Nagel, they're going to pose, they're bringing

zoom to the butt and whatever it was.

And, uh, I remember Luke and his booth had scratched the name Scott Jordan into the glass

because the booth of Churchill is, is just a wall of glass.

It's actually kind of a garden window type.

And, uh, I said, I was just so you remember, he's like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,

I remember him saying he goes, you know, Raju Nagel was just such a fun name to say, Scott

Jordan doesn't have that kind of, um, to it.

And I know what he's saying, like, there are some names that are just more fun to say.

Our starter had both Tampa and colonial, oddly enough, I have the same starter at both

tracks.

I work at, uh, Ed, and I actually saw Ed today.

We had our racing department group photo down in the winter circle and Ed's a very nice

guy.

Ed would probably be a good starter to have on the show just because I know him because

I, you know, see his work all the time and, uh, see, because he's a good dude.

But he's got a tricky last name, it's Bubbles, B-U-B-O-L-Z.

And I have a coworker, I won't say who.

She cannot say his name properly.

Uh, and there's, there's a phrase or a combination of words that sound like Bubbles that she

says it.

And I thought it was a joke, but then I, and I had her, I said, say, Boo, Bulls.

And then she, she could do it when it was spaced out, but you put them together and she

couldn't do it.

And, uh, it reminded me there was this video of Gavin, the meme kid.

He was this kid from, uh, the internet like 10 years ago, but, uh, his, his, his uncle would

hold up a blueberry.

He'd go, what's this?

And he goes burbelly.

And he goes, okay, well, that's what's work on it.

And he goes, say blue and he'd go blue and he'd go say bellies or berries, he'd bury

and say, say blueberry and he goes, burberry, you just couldn't do it.

And sometimes there's certain words you just can't, uh, can't piece together.

But, uh, anyways, but the reason I was bringing up the starter thing, I mean, I don't know

that I, I think there, there's obviously good starters, starters that aren't as good,

but a lot of that's the crew and, and, and what have you.

And I feel like there's some tracks, there was, there was a certain track in New England.

I remember, not New England, but the Northeast that I remember watching for a while, it seemed

like they just had a lot of bad starts, uh, whether it was one horse, wasn't ready, whether

it was hoppin' at start and look, like hoppin' at the start and that kind of stuff that you

have, you have the split second from when your brain tells you, okay, everything's good

to when your thumb hits the button to when the electricity goes through the button, into

the starting gate and opens the gate.

But in that little fraction of time, horses will rear up, throw their head, do stupid stuff.

I always used to think that the rule was, the horse not only had to be standing there,

but had to be facing forward because the, the assistant starters, their, their job is

to have the horse facing forward and they'll usually have their hand on the, the, was it

called a bridal, whatever the thing on their head is, some of your horse people are mad

at me for not knowing that, but anyways, but they'll, they'll, they'll have, and point

the horse's head forward and then the gate pops and they let it go and, and out they go.

But I've seen times recently, so I always thought they had to, like if their head was turned

sideways at all, then it wasn't a fair opportunity to start.

But I've come to learn from talking to stewards that fair opportunity to start just means

that like they were, they were reasonably, you know, they were in the gate and they were

being attempted to be facing forward or we're facing forward and then chain.

It's a lot more flexible, I think, for the stewards to make a horse, to not make a horse

a non-starter than it is to make one, like they really have to, like have been in the

act of not looking forward for quite a while or be legitimately held by the assistant

starters.

Sometimes you'll see a horse will turn its head to the side to where it's completely

looking to the side and in that half second, you know, the assistant starter will still

let go because they're like, well, I can't, you know, even though they're probably better

off to have the horse and hang and push him forward or whatever, push his head back,

looking forward.

So maybe that's something to talk to the steward about, but I think it'd be interesting

to talk to the starter as well.

We had three horses today at Tampa that were all troublemakers going into the gate and

this was the original reason I brought up the starter question or the starter topic because

all three were from the same bar and now two of them were first time starters and one

of them really wasn't that bad.

But when I saw that the third one after the first two, I was like, oh, no, if this horse

holds us up here and then sure enough, he like boxed for a little while and then there

was a bunch of fractiousness in that race and they finally settled down, but it made me

wonder like, you always hear about gate schooling and usually because you have to pass, you

have to get a gate card from the starter at that track.

I think they probably honor if you're coming from, you know, if you're running Gulf Stream

and you're base there, you come over for the Tampa Derby, they're probably going to honor

the card, but you have to have a gate card and I always wonder, it's like, sometimes

you see these horses from certain bars, there is one specific trainer colonial.

I just expect all the time that their horses are going to be a pain in the ass to load

it because it's been seven years of seems like they're all pains in the ass is to load

it.

And two, but I always wonder like, what do they not do that good gate trainers do?

Because we always heard about Wesley Ward, he spent so much time with the gate, it's

all about the gate and the break with him for the young two-year-olds and it's like,

is he, I mean, I suppose the gate is just open in the morning for you to go to, like

I don't think there's a limit of how often you can go, but it does seem like there's

some bars that maybe don't spend a lot of time there, I feel like it would be good

for everybody if they, if they did.

Another thing I saw a couple of announcements of retirements, Roger Adfield, the great

Hall of Fame trainer announcing his retirement at age 83, we've seen a number of these.

I saw Martin Drexler announce the other day that he wasn't going to train anymore because

he can't make any money and he was obviously a trainer that did pretty well up at Woodbine.

I think I saw Eddie Plyssa was supposed to be retiring soon, he's got a horse in, does

he even have a horse in the Florida Derby or one of the big races I thought, but I don't

think it's any surprise that that's happening or going to happen.

We're going to see more of that, obviously, especially as a lot of, I mean, trainers retiring,

we talked about it recently, like there's a lot of them that just train up until they

die or until they physically can't do it anymore, but, you know, I mean, that's when

you're in a sport filled with people who are maybe more older than younger, like there's

going to be more of that turnover, the Drexler thing obviously feels a little different

because I think for Roger Adfield, it just feels like a point in his life, he's ready

to retire.

For Drexler, you know, he kind of spoke more about how much more difficult it is to

to win.

He said the cost of training a large stable is one of the top reasons he's going the

step away.

He said he's taken some time off and he said it's combination things, the financials of

the game make it impossible to make money and I'm tired of feeling like I haven't had

the drives, do it at the level that I want to.

So he goes, I can't, here's an interesting, some economics about it.

He said, I can't speak for, because I think I can speak for every trainer, for what

we charge a day versus the cost of the real world supply staff, et cetera.

It doesn't add up.

My day rate is $110.

It's gone up about 15 or 20% in 15 years, but everything else has gone up 75%.

I feel like 100 to 110 is kind of the going rate for a lot of middle and even bigger tracks.

I think for the pletiers and browns, it's obviously more expensive.

When I owned Horses at Portland, it was 30 bucks a day there and it was 39 and emerald.

So it was basically 40.

So for at Portland, it was 900 bucks a month plus, you know, it was 1000 bucks a month

by the time everything was set and not.

And you were running for a 32 to $3,500 purse.

So if you won, you got 1700.

So if you won a race, you paid about a month and a half of bills.

If you, you know, emerald, you could win a race and you could pay a few, you know, two

months worth of bills, but not, not a lot.

And this article that was in Canadian Thorough bread, it was very good article by Jennifer

Morrison.

Kind of talks about, you know, hey, in straw, one six or $7 per bail is now twice as much.

Veterinarian cost of scab, everything's more expensive, right?

And when gas is more expensive like it is now, it feels like that has an effect on everything else.

And I do wonder when bubbles just start to happen because at some point, like how does

anybody have any money to afford anything anymore?

Especially when a lot of us have gotten used to certain lifestyles, right?

You've gotten used to certain things in your life.

And most people don't want to cut back on things, but at some point you have to.

And I just, as this is even beyond racing, just in a societal thing, like I don't know how things

keep getting more expensive if people aren't making money to catch up with that.

I always am a little leery with stuff like this because sometimes it's like, well,

there's a lot of people making a lot less at the track that seem to be getting by.

So is this a him spending problem?

Is it other problems?

Is it other issues?

I don't know.

I don't know a thing about it.

So I don't, I don't bring that up to like possibly tank that, but it is where my mind goes,

because it's like, well, there's a lot of other bonds that are seemingly still in business and doing okay.

So what are the difference between, you know, them and him, whether it's they charge more,

whether it's they spend less, whatever it was.

So it's, I've said before, I think one of the big problems in the game and just in a lot of things.

I don't think people are having fun anymore.

There's a lot less community in racing than they're used to be.

You know, when I got into it, everybody went out to dinner together after the races.

People of all ages too.

It wasn't like it was just us young kids, you know, and everybody was kind of in it with each other.

Now it all feels very segmented, you know, nobody goes out after the races at all.

You know, used to be the jocks at a lot of places would go to hospitals and do activities.

And you don't see as much of that kind of stuff anymore.

Everybody's just kind of doing their own thing, but also like in a game that's expensive.

And you're asking owners to spend probably more money than they're going to make.

It's got to be fun because if it's not like you're just going to see this continued exodus amongst people.

Because, you know, you can only, you know, look, if I'm an owner and I, let's just say I own part of a horse, right?

And I'm paying a thousand bucks a month for roughly a third of a horse.

You know, for someone like me who's probably just a middle class type of person, that's, that's a big chunk of my, you know, it's, it's certainly a percentage of my monthly income, right?

I mean, it's half my mortgage, my mortgage is like 1800 a month.

So, you know, it's, it's got to be really fun.

I have to really get some enjoyment out of it.

Even if my horse that I own is not all that great, right?

Let's say you're just not going to make any money.

And I think that goes for the horse players.

It goes for everybody and, and with ownership and training and gambling, all that stuff.

If you're able to make money or at least have it be cost effective, it's, it's a lot more fun.

If you're just getting blended death at every spot, it's not as fun.

You know, I, there's, I'm trying to think of like fun.

You know, I love going to the minor league baseball games because it's nine bucks.

I feel great about spending nine dollars to go spend three hours watching good baseball and a nice little stadium.

I feel really good about that.

The lightning games I'm going tomorrow because I tamped my downs, gave me tickets.

I looked at tickets the other day for a game next week.

And I'm like, it's $60 to sit up in the nose.

I get vertigo up there and it's cramped and it's not comfortable.

So like, I'm, I'm just not going to do it.

I can't, I can't justify being uncomfortable.

Plus parking is 25 bucks an hour drive, data, data, data, and I just, I feel like the businesses

that are going to see more popularity and success, the Savannah bananas are a great example of it.

I couldn't have the tiniest shred of interest in the Savannah bananas.

I don't want to go.

I have no interest.

I don't, I won't ever go.

I shouldn't never say never, but I, but I won't, however, I completely understand why people get into it.

And also why it's such a great event for them because they keep their prices affordable and people are excited about that.

And families have a place to go do something fun.

And I think in the racing world, we have to make things affordable.

And we have to make it a better price value.

And we've talked about that in Nazim when it comes to the gambling side of things.

But it's got to be for the people working to, right?

I mean, nobody's going to work seven days a week.

I mean, that's not true.

Some people will, but very few people are going to want to work seven days a week to make very little money, especially when you're talking about, you know, if you're making

on paper to 300,000 a year of 10% earnings, right?

Seemingly, like, that seems like a nice living.

But then if you're not really making that because you're putting things back, again, I don't know the guy's business model.

It could be that his thing is out of whack and whatever.

But, you know, it's, it's got to be fun and it's got to be cost effective.

And that really speaks to all areas of everything I feel like now.

And I, it's, again, it feels like more of a societal thing.

But it's just, it's so tough to want to go do things that brought you joy for long periods of time.

And you just can't, because it's so expensive or you can't justify it.

You know, I can go to a $70 lightning game.

But I can't rationalize spending $70 to not have what I think is $70 worth of value for my time.

And, and money that I'm giving up for it.

And the lightning games are very fun when you have good seats or if you have free seats.

But man, if you spend $150 for a seat lower bowl, I don't have the kind of money to where I can just do that willy nilly.

I got to think about that.

And so I feel like with, with raising a horse ownership.

If a horse ownership, now I know micro shares and I've gotten letters and emails from people about micro shares.

And they love them and they love them and they love them. And that's great.

I'm happy for people that love them.

But if I'm going to get into ownership just at a five or 10% level, like,

A, is that enough action?

And is it worth, you know, 500 a month or whatever it is 300 a month?

And so it's just, it has to, it has to be worth it.

And it just feels like everything is getting further and further from worth it in a lot of areas.

So I don't know, little, little rant there, sorry about that.

But it just it was something I was thinking about after reading those commercial or reading that those letters and we're getting ready for commercials.

My brain is working five seconds ahead.

But, you know, with all the trainer retirements and stuff, like I said, it's, I think it's a mix of not making a living.

You got, you got fewer horses and they're usually in the hands of fewer people.

And so some very good bars are going to be left out of that.

And we've seen that over the last many years.

And as things continue to constrict in that direction, you're going to see more of it.

There's only so much pie to be had.

And I can tell you what, the big boys and gals, they're not sharing any of it.

You know, they're not, they're not saying, oh, here, you know what, here's a small bar.

And you take, you take 10 of my good horses that were half million dollars.

No, the owners want to run with those trainers because they know they have a shot to win the big races.

Even though I would argue they should have a shot with, with lots of different trainers.

But let's, let's take a quick time out.

Then we'll go to Kelly Riley.

Then we'll go to weekend preview.

How about that?

We'll do a one commercial each break.

It's Jason Beam horse racing podcast Thursday edition here on the Jason Beam horse racing podcast radio network.

Since 2016, the Jason Beam horse racing podcast has been your destination for horse racing talk, news,

interviews, handicapping and wagering discussions and oh, oh, so much more.

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And he will be with you every Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with new shows every week.

Holidays and personal time off, not included.

The Jason Beam horse racing podcast where the race is on even when it's off.

All right, it's Thursday and it's a, I don't know if you know this Kelly.

It's due by World Cup week and wanted to get you in for the international radar.

And obviously one of the big international events of the season coming up on Saturday.

Absolutely.

This one of these weeks where it makes more sense to look forward for international radar segment rather than to the prior weekend.

Although there was stuff that would have been interesting to talk about from this past weekend,

but definitely with a Dubai World Cup dominating the attention on an otherwise busy weekend of international racing.

But definitely from an North American perspective, you know,

have to watch the action in Dubai, partly because of the the breeder's cup form on offer.

Obviously in the World Cup itself, we've got our breeder's cup classic champion forever young,

coming off his successful title defense in the Saudi cup.

And now he's trying to become the first horse to pull the Saudi Dubai World Cup double.

As last when we discussed in the radar segment after the Saudi cup.

And I said, I thought he had a slightly,

I don't want to say a totally easier race, but it's slightly less gut busting race.

Perhaps this year than he had last year against romantic warrior.

So I would expect forever young to really maintain his form or even move forward a little bit in Dubai and not regress as he did last year.

So certainly he's he sets the standards they say.

And I would really expect him to deliver his trademark effort as opposed to last year when he was probably

recoiling a little bit from his Saudi effort.

But of course, you know, being your magnificent race, you know,

there are other storylines involved beyond forever young.

We've got a magnitude on the up swing for Steve Asmuss.

And kind of like a gun runner had been at this comparable point in his career.

So interesting to see how how much he can continue to move forward here.

Hit show of course is kind of the forgotten horse almost as a defending champion.

But yeah, considering, you know, considering that last year, you know,

he kind of benefited from an ideal scenario.

Perhaps this year, you'd have to think it's going to be a tougher scenario for him to try to duplicate that.

And and he'd have to, I mean, you'd have to go back to thunder snow to find a two time champion in this race.

So so you would have to think at least in terms of all available evidence.

He'd kind of be up against it.

But again, like he did it before.

So it could be under underestimating what he can do in his title defense.

And of course, in terms of the locally based horses,

Maidan was so impressive on his switch to dirt last time for the red hot father and son training due of Simon and a CRISPR.

So, you know, he's obviously he's is a different order of magnitude.

No pun intended from what he achieved on super Saturday.

But still, he's unexposed on the surface.

And he did take to it so beautifully that you really don't know how much more he can show at a higher level here.

So definitely he is a great interest.

And also for a Bupa Seymour, you have a imperial emperor who are always liked because he's a closely related to a Gaia.

It's like a three quarter brother to Gaia imperial emperor is in much better shape going into this year's world cup.

Then he was a year ago when he was really disappointing and really not not in the best physical shape.

But he's been fresh and since since his big win in the LMAC team challenge.

So, I imperial emperor could also be a little bit a sneaky type of who could be overlooked a little bit yet capable of a really big effort.

So, it's a you know, fascinating, you know, despite the region of being a flames and turmoil and everything.

It is a it looks like the world cup itself will be definitely up to a historical standard for this 30th anniversary.

I saw one of the kind of cool stories is the ethical diamond who was obviously the upset winner here in the breeder's cup going back there because his trainer Willie Mullens is like very much a jumps guy, right?

Oh my goodness. Yeah, so the jumps might throw and you know, that's a incredible ethical diamond being able to pull off the breeder's cup turf.

You know, over rebels romance who unfortunately is not in the sheema. He was he was listed as a you know in the early probable says as in the mix, but considering what Charlie Applebee had said after he won the city of gold last time.

If they were going to kind of like mind him at this point in his career given his age and everything.

It wasn't a great shock for me that he didn't end up in the final declarations in the sheema, but thank God we have a calendar again there.

He was officially the world's top ranked horse last year. So he was runner up a year ago, but he's he's you're definitely as a trainer, Francis.

I read graph art has pointed out he's a much more mature individual as he returns to action here at this year's sheema.

So you have to think that he's he really should, you know, get the job done this time, especially because that race has kind of cut off a bit.

Even though you have ethical diamond in there, you have Javilado, who is a fourth and last year's arc. He's there, but you're missing the Japanese representation that's usually so robust.

I mean, Denon Decile, who won the year ago, he's not shipping. And there's actually no no Japanese runner in here. And that's one of the storylines about world cup this year is how many horses have not gone because of the regional situation and turmoil and everything.

So it will be interesting to see how ethical diamond performs. And if Javilado can try to offer a stiffer resistance to a calendar again, but you'd have to think at least on all known form.

And again, should should you kick off his season with a good performance and a victory here, but also returning to action and the Dubai turf is a buzzman for.

So he adds also some star power to the younger card, the only thing about him, though, and of course on paper, you know, he looms very, very large in the Dubai turf.

But he is shortening up to about a mile and eighth in this comeback run after all of his best form last year was a mile quarter.

And the other slight question marked to me is going to be the ground because it's something we normally don't talk about with Dubai, but they're having rain all week.

And they're actually like weather warnings and notifications and saying like giving people advice on what to do when the weather is as bad there this week.

So the ground is liable to be riding softer than it typically would be for a world cup meeting.

So I think on Budsman, you know, although he definitely is going to be a heavy saver in there, I am a little bit quizzical between the comeback spot and the ground for him.

And of course there are other serious contenders in there as well.

You have a kudwa who I'd mentioned a last month after his after his big win over course and distance and his damn sidra had actually won this race.

I think 12 years ago.

So or 13 years ago back in 2013.

So I could was going to try to emulate his damn in the Dubai turf.

You've got a past champion, a factor chival from a couple of years ago, trying to regain his title.

You've got a four George who's been has a really productive carnival.

And he kind of pushed rebels romance a little bit in that city of goal last time.

So he's cutting back and trip at four George is certainly on the on the upswing.

And you've got a Japanese runner to in guy of four to I consider him almost like a proxy for a gentar man tar who would have been interesting proposition.

He's another one of those Japanese forces who did not ship to Dubai this year.

So guy of force had actually placed to gentar man tar in the two marquee races at a mile at home, the hospital can then in the mile championship.

So he can kind of be considered of perhaps that the proxy for a gentar man tar here.

But again, I think the ground could be a little bit of a question for him to him and he had one on soft, you know, way, way earlier in his career versus lesser, but it is at least something to keep in mind.

Well, while you're assessing a guy of force in this race, but at least in terms of a factor, Shavall can act on it.

And I think could law could could probably handle it too.

So it's it's going to be interesting to see it.

If the ground does play a role, you can say the same thing for the L quad sprint because we've got the rematch here between our own ref runner.

And the French star LaZotte, who were one, two in the 1351 turf sprint in Saudi, now they get a rematch down straight away.

It may Dan.

And if you factor in potentially softer ground as well between the, you know, the different conditions here that could turn the tables in favor of a LaZotte to gain a vengeance on a ref runner.

But, you know, we've also got our breeder's cup sprint champion, a Ben Fernando in the Dubai golden Shaheen on the main track along with that.

And not to tell me who's been so unlucky there.

Yeah, yeah.

You know, he's that that poor say he deserves to have a little bit of luck in this race.

God knows.

So not to tell me they've got past past champions from the golden Shaheen back again as well.

So last year's a shocker, a dark saffron and tons who has been the sprints on my show locally there for a few years.

So he's back there as well.

So there's so many magnificent storylines and racing despite despite the absence of some high quality horses who otherwise would have been there.

And then as if all that weren't enough, we also have your major Kentucky Derby implications.

The UAE Derby being the grand finale of the Euro mid east road.

So we're going to determine who gets the two invitations for the Euro mid east road there.

And I was crushed because one of the horses who's not there.

Who I thought would have been able to make it with Al-Haram, the Saudi Derby winner.

But his flight out of Riyadh actually got canceled on advice of the Dubai Ministry of Defense or UAE Ministry defense, I should say.

So he and a couple of his Saudi compatriots are not able to ship to Dubai for World Cup night.

So I am devastated because I was really looking forward to seeing Al-Haram in the UAE Derby.

But we still do have some very, very intriguing locals in terms of six speed who won the UAE 2000.

I think he might get a little bit of stamina question mark trying to carry that speed over a mile and a three sixteenths in the UAE Derby.

We've got brotherly love who prospered in that Dubai road to the Derby race when the heavy favorite saloon acted up in the gate and broke loose and ran off and got scratched.

If he can hold his temper and remain calm in the festivities of World Cup night.

If he can actually break from the gate without incident and have a chance here, I think we might see what he can do in this race.

Hopefully because I was really disappointed we didn't get to see him last time.

But anyway, brotherly love having won the previous scoring race that Dubai road to the Derby race when saloon was scratched.

He's in there. We also have interesting enough Devon Island who I had mentioned in the national radar over the winter because he won twice it may Dan on the dirt beating brotherly love.

But then after he was runner up in the UAE guineas, he kind of, you know, it looked like they were not going to persevere on the dirt with him.

He's not a he's not an early triple crown nominee here at the stage.

I kind of thought that well, maybe they just maybe the experiment was over.

But Devon Island has pop back up in there for good often and Charlie Applebee.

So we'll see we'll see how he fairs and good often number one hope at least on paper is the Japanese ship or pyromancer who had won the Zen Nippon Nisa.

You shown on the on the Japan road and now he's switching to the Romedi strobe the UAE Derby his form I don't think is really the strongest from Japan.

I could be underestimating him because he's unbeaten. He's the type who just gets the job done.

So if he's just kind of like running to the level that he needs to, he certainly would have you know scope to do a lot better.

But it's just as a matter of form. I'm just wondering is you could he potentially be a little of an underlaid here.

We'll see he has another Japanese compatriot in their wonder deen who had run in the Saudi Derby finishing.

I think he was fourth in there. So he certainly won who can who can continue to progress it in this spot.

But the interesting thing about these Japanese, especially with under deen, is that he had actually been beaten by horse in Japan.

And Rock, Tom again, who was supposed to go to Dubai, but he's ended up staying home instead and there were a couple other potential Japanese shippers who ended up staying home because they have another option on the finale of the Japan road on Saturday.

But to that, though, I should mention another interesting horse in the UA Derby is the UAOaks winner, La Boa.

Because when she ran off the screen that day, it was the same day as brotherly loved win in the in the scoring race on the your admitties road.

Only La Boa ran a lot faster. So that's another reason aside from the scratches.

I think that's another reason to kind of, you know, perhaps downgrade that Dubai road to the Derby race a little bit because it was it was kind of a slow motion finish and in La Boa had run much, much faster in the UAE Oaks.

So a lot, a lot of fascinating angles going on in the UA Derby and we'll just we'll just have to see who who can garner the Derby invitations out of there.

But of course that the other Derby invitation up for grabs is on the Japan road in the Fuku steaks at Nakayama earlier on Saturday.

And the horse I'm really looking forward to I think not just me, it's like I think half the planet is a down on bourbon because of any of the Japanese horses on the trail.

I think he's been the one that has shown the most you know potential star power.

He's two for two and very similar conditions going right handed over root of ground. He's just absolutely annihilated competition. He's a son of max field.

So I'm really looking forward to seeing what he can do in the Fuku and seeing if he and he is an early triple crown on me. Hopefully, hopefully he can book his ticket.

But there are a few other horses to mention in there as I said rock Tom again, who kind of gives an interesting form angle since he has collateral form with pyromance or they had both beaten wonder Dean.

So he's he's in the Fuku and say we also have the top three from the highest and stakes that the previous scoring race in the Japan road.

Good old son's lucky kid, a dawn erectus who had actually also been second in the Cavalier earlier in the Japan road. He's since come back, you know, and one and allowance very impressively.

It or a side and another also ran from the high sense of these the throw who could do a look. I think he was kind of messed up by the pace that day. So he could be a little better than he showed in high sense.

Others in the Fuku of interest are Charlie who was third in the blue bird cup to horse. I'd mention on the radar while back a finger.

So Charlie has come back and won over course and distance by like 10 length. So I think I think he's a he's an interesting factor in there.

And there are a couple of triple crown nominations that coming off wins as well, a teo Kaiser for die skate takoyanity of the the teo fame like a like teo password same connection.

So so I think he's an interesting horse and a libets show has also recently won an allowance. So dad on bourbon certainly figures to be the favorite in there. I hope hope we can put on a show but there are several other horses in there who could who could give him.

And you're a little bit more of a little more competition or more or more of a form guide as well to him since he's just completely outclass the horses he's seen so far.

Kelly Rodney joins each and every Thursday for international radar segment. Obviously we'll recap a lot of the big Dubai races next week and look ahead to whatever the heck she wants to look ahead to Kelly. Thanks so much.

Thank you.

All right, we'll be right back after short time. I'm Jason being horse racing podcast brought to you by Twin Spires.

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Twin Spires. All right, back here on the Jason beam horse racing podcast brought to you by Twin Spires. I saw Darren so Kelly was tweeting about playing Tampa.

He said he was having one of those days where it's like every horse he had was making a move like they were going to go to lead win and then they'd get run down late.

When he said that, I go, I know exactly who he was talking about.

Because there was a horse I thought I was like, this is a winning move. And then he was and he not only got ran down, he got ran down like real quickly after that.

It was, you know, these, these horses, they, they surprise you. I'm a very non-committal race collar.

You will rarely see me make. Now, here's what, okay, I'm talking about in terms of like saying like he's the one to beat or, you know, he's home.

I, I almost never say a horse is home until he is home and cooled out. I think I'm actually very good. Like if you see me say traveling well.

I during a race, I feel like there's a really good chance that horse wins or runs well. And I'll say it early in the race too.

I feel very good about my ability for that. But I still won't be like, oh, he looks like a million bucks.

There was one, in fact, there was one on Wednesday where it was like, I said, I said, he's in the cab, but he's got the perfect trip.

Like, I thought he was going to win, but I didn't say it that way. I just said he said he saw daylight. And he just was like, yeah, I can't do anything.

It was a Mr. Fantastico.

It's who I'm talking about. I think that's who it was. Or was it sister supreme? It was one of, it was a three horse in some race.

Just had a perfect trip in mind.

I mentioned I wanted to discuss the Arkansas Derby a little bit more Napoleon Solo intending to scratch.

Obviously changes things up because this was one of those races. I started looking from the outside in.

I started at litmus test and scrolled backwards. And I see litmus test and I'm like, okay, he's been on the lead twice now.

And he has run third, oddly enough, beaten basically the exact same amount of links, beaten five links.

One was in the breeder's fraternity against Ted Noffey. And the other was in the rebel or class president and silent tactic beat him.

So they're taking the blinkers off, which kind of makes you think like, okay, like maybe Baffer wants this horse to relax.

His two wins have come when he's been just off the pace.

But he's drawn post nine.

So I got to think they try to get him up into second early. There is not a ton of speed, especially with Napoleon Solo out.

I don't, I feel like this would have been a good race for Napoleon Solo because he probably sit a pretty garden close up trip.

Now, the question mark to me in this race a little bit is taptastic, the Asmus and Maiden winner.

This seems like a pretty bold jump, which makes me think Mr. Steve is pretty high on the horse.

And so any any ran good on a debut win, going two turns.

But I'm wondering how quick he will be, also Brickland in post four, like they all feel like they're kind of quick-ish.

But the speed is probably going to come from the rail, right?

Redland Rebels, who was your leader in the Tampa Derby.

And I thought honestly ran a pretty brave race for a forty to one shot.

He was also breaking from post one that day and he broke really well.

He got the lead, got to the turn first.

And when they hooked him, he got hooked by some good horses further ado and in cantileto and the Puba.

And he fought with him. He got beat two and three quarters in the end.

And he set a pretty honest tempo.

I'm really curious to see if Redland Rebels is able to maybe relax a little bit here.

If he does get to, thing is a million and a half grade one and there's a baffer that's got a little speed to the outside.

Like, I can't imagine he just gets away with a forty eight, you know what I mean.

But I do think he could be dangerous. He just seems like kind of an ice horse.

Being cold has had a really good couple of years.

But with shippers, he's two percent from forty five starts and for great at stakes, he's two percent from forty two starts.

So this is, this is asking a lot.

Keith Asmoson on board, but I don't know. I feel like he's going to be loose.

Silent tactics, one of those horses who I haven't liked really in any of his starts.

I mean obviously you wish you liked him when he was twelve to one in the southwest.

But he definitely came with a nice run last time.

I thought he got a better trip than he'd gotten before.

But he was very good and I feel like I'm not giving him the respect he deserves.

Renegade is your three to two favorite.

And my Tampa bias has me obviously pulling for him because he's a Sam F Davis winner.

He was pretty impressive that day.

He beat the Puma who came back to win the Tampa Derby.

Wayne's law who he beat is also in the Florida Derby who was a big long shot that day.

He was like forty to one or something.

I rad shows up here.

Renegade to me is, he just seems like he took a nice step.

That was his first start of the year.

I know he ran late December of the remsend, but I really would love to see him kind of put it.

I mean, if he really has a huge win here, doesn't he maybe leap forward as the favorite right now?

I mean, I got to feel like in the Derby futures, he's probably inside the top few choices, right?

Maybe I'm maybe I'm not right.

Let's see here pool two or no, pool five is the most recent one.

He is what's his name?

Yeah, he was thirteen to one.

So that put I mean for that's the futures.

So if he if he puts a big win out here in Oakland against silent tactic and against litmus test and against everybody else,

maybe he is does go into the Derby is the favorite or one of, you know, I mean, Paladin has been good.

Paladin's kind of just been the most dependable so far and really renegade other than, I mean, he got beaten his debut by a lot,

but okay, that was that Amos horse, right? It's our time.

But I mean, he's just since then, I think he's just been so, so good and we still don't know everything that he is.

He's only run four times.

So it's a fun race and looking forward to I wish Napoleon Solo was in it.

I feel like he would add a lot to the race.

One of the cool features they have on optics is you can take a horse out of the plot.

And it's it's a nice thing because it kind of adjusts everything for the plot and kind of how things might shape up and, you know, how it changes.

And so renegade kind of looks good either way with Napoleon Solo in or not, but I feel like he looks better with Napoleon Solo not in.

So yeah, I'm looking forward to that one.

I mentioned at Gulfstream, we talked fair bit of Florida Derby yesterday before with with Romero and before that,

but I wanted to touch real quick on the Oaks, the ninth race on that big extravaganza of a card.

And obviously your your Devota Dale winner, she be smooth for pleasure and Calumet.

Big debut win on January 23rd comes back five weeks later and drops in the Devota Dale.

From from way off the pace, showed a little bit of versatility.

She's kind of run, I haven't seen with the buyer stack up, but I got to feel like with Bridgett number,

she's run the 93 is one of the faster three year old filling ones we've seen.

Travis mentioned that a few weeks ago, he's like this division just doesn't seem to put up a lot of the big numbers.

We've we've maybe gotten used to seeing Brad Cox has one in here, prom queen, who's a quality road.

It's a home bread for the West's and took a lot of money on debut, got beat by she be smooth.

But only beaten two and a half links, but then came back to just crushing the maiden at four to five.

And you know, maybe the difference was two and a half on debut.

And this horse was in front and got ran down by she be smooth last time stocked.

I wonder maybe if prom queen's able to relax a little bit with this experience of maybe she can turn the table on she be smooth.

She's kind of the one I'm most interested in.

I really liked the kid sweezy horse just singing in the Rachel Alexandra.

She ran third beaten three behind Bella Ballerina. Love your neighbor.

We know Bella Ballerina got beat last weekend.

But Gulf Stream is not famously like the best like closer track.

But I feel like sometimes these mile of 16th races, you do see horses kind of make moves.

And she was a little closer in that fairgrounds race.

In part, I think because it was just a smaller field.

Sometimes those tend to compact a little more.

And they're adding blinkers here, whether it's focus, whether it's speed.

You know, that's a question for Kent.

But I don't know.

I think she's got a little ability and maybe one to jump up into contention.

What should be a pretty good race?

But lots to recap. We'll do that on Monday.

Really appreciate our guest this week. Emily Gullickson joining us from your Restrepo.

And you guys and Kelly.

Of course Kelly joins us every week.

But we will see you guys back on Monday. Have a great weekend.