Jobs data lost on the foggy highway

Friday 7th November 2025

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Normally all eyes would be on the release of the non-farm payrolls data today, but the shutdown has put paid to that. The Fed’s Goolsbee says the lack of data makes it hard to advocate rate cuts; ‘when its foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down’. The job is made harder when available data conflicts with each other. Yesterday we were talking about the positive ADP jobs numbers, today NAB’s Taylor Nugent highlights the Challenger jobs survey that reported 153kjob layoffs in October, alongside very low hiring rates. Market sentiment has shifted, with US shares down, the dollar lower, and bond yields falling, with an increased expectation for a December rate cut.

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