John Helmer: Trump Furious as Allies Reject U.S. Plan to Escort Ships in Hormuz

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Hi everybody, today's Tuesday March 17th, 2026, and our dear friend, John Helmer is here with us.

Welcome back, John. Thank you for having me. I'm good to be back.

John, let me start with the rumors around Benjamin Netneau and it seems that recently he's not

participating in the security briefings in Israel and then we had two or three videos of him

and mostly people are talking about these or AI generated videos. They're not real.

What is your understanding of the situation around Benjamin Netneau?

It's very important. I was speaking from a Russian point of view, you know, when

an individual like Mikhail Gorbachev is subject to attention to arrest and there's a

putch going on in the capital. The first thing you do is to make sure that he's still alive and

you do that by telephone among other things. That was a long time ago when the putch was attempt

against Gorbachev to verify that he was alive and talking first, second. With respect to Netneau

there've been three video clips he intended to show he's alive. The first was the so-called

six finger video where he makes a speech and the AI analysis shows that there are all sorts of

manipulations because that failed to be convincing either that he was alive or in command and we'll

come back to the difference between those two things in a minute because they're strategically

significant. He did the coffee cup video. The coffee cup and coffee shop video has been analyzed.

I've seen it. Lots of millions of people have now seen it. You've seen it. It shows several AI

fabrications and speaking from a Russian point of view where used to fabrications, Yeltsin

speeches were often fabricated with cuts. You could see the cuts and in this particular case,

you can see cuts. First, when he drinks from the coffee cup, you see that he doesn't swallow.

You can't drink coffee and not swallow it and you see a cut in the clip between the

momedy sips and the momedy swallows. It's a fabrication. Second, as many people have seen,

the surface of the coffee and the design of the cappuccino don't change even after he's begun

drinking from it. That's the second one and it's suspect. The third one is let's call it the

girly video. That's where he goes to a site and begins talking to girls. To several women,

you see a couple of bodyguards around him and so forth. Again, the object is to show he's alive.

However, if you look carefully, you see he's wearing the very same jacket as he wore in the coffee

shop video, which was screened a day before, more than 24 hours before. If you look at it very

exact, do you want me to play it for you? I don't know. I think everybody's sick of them and I want

to come to a bigger point. What you can see is the zipper on his jacket is in the same position as

it was in the coffee shop a day later. Not possible. It's not normal. Now, what are these things show

you? It may show you he's still alive. It definitely shows you that Netanyahu wants to show the

world that he's alive. But what he doesn't show you and that's the point you began with, he is no

longer in command of Israel. Prime Ministers don't show that they're in command of a war, let alone

an economy, the normal prime ministerial operations. He's not showing. Why do you show a coffee cup

and two girls when you are really in command? Now, what does it mean if he's alive but not in command?

This is a very interesting problem and Netanyahu's videos whether they're AI fakes or not show

he's not in command. Therefore, the question arises, has there been or is there ongoing a form of

push, a form of push in Israel? This is a very serious development and I can't add from what my

Russian sources say because they're not talking, those who know aren't talking and there's more

suspicion and guesswork than there's a reality. But let's step back a minute and look at the

strategic issue. Why would there be a push now against Netanyahu or why would he be afraid of one

and aims to show at this point he's walking around freely and therefore in command when he's not

answered. In many respects as your colleagues, my colleagues show, Israel is now defenseless as

Ted Postal explained on your program last week. It's unable to achieve its principal war aim

against Iran. Let's say it's genocidal against Iran but it also in military terms means

that Israel's principal war aim is to prevent Iran ever having not only nuclear warheads but

conventional warheads on ballistic missiles with the precision that can destroy Israel.

Ted Postal's data really convinced me and should convince us all without exaggeration Iran

retaliatory capacity something we've been talking about for months is surviving. It survives to the

extent that Israel loses its war aim. The US is different and I disagree with those who think that

Israel is running this war. It's always the other way around but it suits many administrations

for election purposes and other purposes to make it appear that Israel comes first and it's

reasonable for Iranian foreign minister and others to derive the US policy as Israel first but now

what we have is a serious turning point in which the US is facing a longer war than an anticipated

Israel is facing a war that cannot cannot end its the existential threat that it faces from Iran

and in fact it now faces a stronger threat than Israel has ever faced before. What's to do?

Answer we've talked about before I've written about in dances with bears and others are seeing it

too. Israel will reach for tactical nuclear weapons if they run out of all other alternatives

and what we know from the way he behaves the way he thinks the way he speaks Netanyahu is an

advocate of tactical nuclear warfare against Iran. The question is is the United States

is the Trump administration are the Israel first is around Trump the Pentagon and the joint

chiefs of staff the CIA and the so-called deep state are they all in consensus on whether

the US wants Israel to use tactical nuclear weapons I'd say on balance the US does not want

Israel to try that and is now looking for ways first to shorten the war let me add a few points

about the time there and that there's not much time let's just go to the question of time if you

don't mind and stop me if I'm wandering away from your question we know we know from two bits

of evidence the Americans want this war to be over in approximately two weeks why do we know

because Trump hold Scott percent the Treasury Secretary to work out yesterday in

Paris with the Chinese that he will not be coming to Beijing for a really important summit meeting

March 31st April 3 because he has to stay home to run the war this wasn't what the Chinese

accepted he would do a few days ago remember last week we talked about the foreign minister of

China Wang Yi endorsing Trump to show up on March 31st in the middle of a war we thought that

it's disadvantageous to say the least from a PR point of view for the Chinese to be welcoming

a warmaker at that time but it's Trump who wants to be in Washington on March 31st so that's

two weeks away from today he thinks he might be needed in Washington to run the war now it's

to run the negotiations to end the war with a bigger group of advisors that can be fitted into a

plane on the way to China or can be securely involved in discussions if Trump is in China

second Scott percent in yesterday's interview after meeting with Haley Feng and Lee Chiang

Gang the two Chinese negotiators gave a very interesting press conference first to explain

basically that the Chinese and the Americans failed to reach any significant tariff agreements

in Paris that they could put on to President Xi and President Trump to agree on in a summer that's

one issue second the Senate and I'm looking down at my paper to get the text right the Senate was

asked how much oil is there in supply how quickly are you prepared to give sanctions waivers to

the Russians what do you see the timing of the oil supply to be now percent it's worth understanding

said some of the obvious arithmetic 20 million barrels of oil come out of the homeless nothing comes

out a small amount can be diverted by the Saudis to Yanbu and come out the Red Sea that's if

the Gerald Ford can protect the Red Sea and that's if the hoodies don't begin to close bubble

Monday up which they may do if Iran and the hoodies agree on that point so what the percent says is

it look and I'm reading it looks like the deficit is about 10 or 14 million barrels a day he

means and that's before any of the ships are coming out of the straits then if you think about

the Russian oil he's talking about the floating Russian oil in tanker storage offshore

offshore India offshore China offshore many places that's been given a waiver to to sell an unload

until April 12 that's said a percent between 9 to 11 days to 12 days of supply without the market

moving then he talks about the additional strategic reserves what he's talking about what he's

pressed to ask answer is how much oil do you think can be supplied to the market before there's

a strategic disruption and therefore how long can you put up with can the world put up with

the closure of the homeless straight the assumption there for everybody is that Trump's

notion of opening the homeless straight against Iran has failed it has failed before it started

and it fails without without minds Iran has become the gatekeeper of world global oil supply this

is really important gatekeeper folks that's the phrase a word to remember so the cent is telling the

world we think we've got about 14 more days of surplus at sea beyond that he knows Russia can

produce about 500 thousand more barrels a day into the market a certain amount can come out of

Venezuela but from what percent says he thinks the oil shortage will be can will last only for

another two weeks that means he thinks the US will be able to negotiate with Iran terms of end of

war which will reopen hormones which means to corroborate Trump's travel plan the Americans think the

war will last another two weeks now let's suppose that's right you nobody has to believe me

that's what they say let's set suppose they're right if they're right we now have two weeks

in which the Americans are looking to negotiate out in order to homeless opens on the other hand

the Israelis want to destroy Iran within two weeks and it can't be done without they think without

nuclear weapons so who is pushing against the American idea of reopening hormones ending the war

by March 31st or thereabouts answer who's pushing against the Americans it's Netanyahu

Netanyahu what do the Americans think then I believe it's reasonable for our audience for you

for the Iranian side and for everybody else to figure that Netanyahu is makes a very convenient

scapegoat for an American negotiated end of war why first of all he is already the leader of the

Israel war faction and many Jewish communities who oppose the war but remain Jewish want to say

that Netanyahu is the wrong apple in the barrel let's leave aside that we don't agree with that

that's what they say we also can pick up I'm reaching for it Ayatollah, Moshtabahs, Khamenei's

speech and one of there are three main points that let's call it end of war terms one is revenge for

Khamenei's death well that point could be met by the removal of Netanyahu dead or alive but

finished it's one possibility removing Netanyahu would change the Iranian perception it would

change the world's perception who could remove him only the Israeli military only the Israeli

would be a military push there has been such a precedent between Pakistan and India when Pakistan

was reaching for its nuclear weapons last April during the Operation Sindor which Pakistan

lost to India when the war began between the two Pakistan reached for their nucleus when

India detected that they multiplied massive air and missile attack destroying Pakistan's command

control making Pakistan as defenseless as Israel now is at that point the Pakistani military

who run the country telephone vice president JD Vance and said we want to cease fire that's how

the war ended and the Indian officers who've described what happened describe the relative rationality

that they shared with the Pakistani military to avoid the nuclear escalation step it's happened

before it could happen again and it meets the Ayatollah's first point the second point in the

Ayatollah's end of war terms is that Iran must have it reparations from the enemy and if the

reparations are refused the Iranian side will destroy the Arab's property as well as the US

bases to an equal value plus there are Iranian pardon me reserves bank reserves stolen by the

English they're all over the place and they could be restored so there is a way of meeting the

reparations term and finally and this is a crucial difference between Israel and the United States

the Ayatollah said the US bases must be closed immediately now the Iranian side we know and your

colleagues have done a terrific job of appointing us with how much destruction beginning with the

losses of the big AN radars in Qatar Saudi Arabia if I'm not mistaken and Jordan on which all of

Israel and US air defense depends are the US could withdraw from the bases and not reconstruct them

at least for a foreseeable future they don't in fact need them why don't they need them

for the US can walk away with the idea that it has brought Pakistan and India into a US strategic

embrace and we can come back to where India is in this war but it's certainly not with Iran it's

against Iran if the US calculates that its principal enemies China and it may not with the

unpredictability of tactical nuclear warfare against Iran which would cause a dead hand reatt retaliation

Israel would be destroyed by the dead hand automatic retaliation if the US side decides that at the

military level the CIA level then it can cope with a loss of bases because it will gain strategic

combination against Iran in the west Afghanistan in the west and against China in the east so I

can see and I think we should be anticipating now that the US can walk away not with Trump's

win-win total obliteration of Iran but win not win-win and not obliteration but without the

obliteration of Israel so that's a theory it's potentially wrong however we I'm working from

the basis that the the US needs and wants a short war and has to come to negotiation with the

Iranian side on the IOTALA's terms not on vikkoff and cushions

John you mentioned the serial for most I think one of the main questions one of the main

difficulties that the Trump administration is facing right now is the serial for most

how did you find the reactions of the NATO countries? Donald Trump said that NATO without the

United States is nothing then he comes out and somehow begging them to help him in this

way for most who are these NATO countries and how did you find the reaction to Donald Trump's

you know requests? Well I think the important point and you implied it and our audience understands

it is the Europeans broke into pieces they see things differently we know from the reporting

it's it's a bit less than clear however that the French and the Italians have tried to negotiate

directly with Iran for exit from Hormuz again this is such a war winner Iran is now the gatekeeper

of the Persian Gulf not since Darius 2500 years ago has Iran been so powerful despite its

weakness this is insufferable to the Jewish Zionist Israeli war plan but there it is

so Europe acknowledges Iran as the gatekeeper and tries to negotiate exit we've seen

India which declared war on Iran in the Knesset when Prime Minister Modi screamed

Israel high 48 hours before he knew the war would stop there is a lot we can say that

indicates that there are military objections in India to Modi's behavior and meantime we can see

that Foreign Minister Jay Shankar has busy has been busy going to Europe pleading an Indian

role to mediate a settlement between the Europeans and Iranians as if in as if Iran needs India as

an intermediary so we know that the French and the Italians took the view we'll negotiate with the

gatekeeper if we don't any longer believe the castle can be destroyed we will go up to the gate

and negotiate with the gatekeeper that's one thing Meritz the German the mini chancellor

and Starmer the mini government leader of the UK have taken a different line they're principally

concerned with on fighting on the war in the Ukraine against Russia they see their principal

enemy to be Russia they don't want a war that goes on and on that gives Russia more and more

economic leverage through energy supply so it's unclear to me what in fact Meritz's policy

is towards Iran but I don't see that he's at all confident of anything with respect to Iran we've

seen the Belgian prime ministers announce Europe must normalize its relations with Russia

because of the current war so we have a breakup of the NATO countries

reflecting rather well their sensitivity their political sensitivity and their political weakness

if energy prices shoot up and basically Trump's as sensitive as they are they are no more sensitive

than the US president is so I think what we can see now happening is a total failure on the part

of the Europeans to offer any form of joining the war they don't want to join the war

the most Starmer can do is plus the French plus a few Spanish weapons plus the Greek navy

plus the Cyprus navy they can throw a few things into the defense of the British sovereign

base at Akraterian Cyprus after two hits on the Akrateri base in Cyprus this is for show

they all combined and failed as you know very well at opening the Red Sea against the Houthis

and the Houthis took terrible punishment during that episode but they won the establishing themselves

as the gatekeeper of Barbelman dead right they did but compared to them the Iranian achievements

even greater and I think the answer to your question is NATO and the United States are in the

same boat and that boat is either locked into the Persian Gulf where it's a sitting duck or it's

locked out where it can't open the energy spigot and that energy spigot must open according to

percent for the market to normalize after two weeks

John what was amazing to me that the transformation of the German Chancellor you remember during

12 they were he said that Israel is doing our daily job then when this war was about to start he

said that the regime change the regime the so-called regime must change in Iran and then you know

after Donald Trump asking them to join him in the straightover most he came out said something

totally different from what we've heard from him so far says the war in the in the straightover

most is not a NATO war and we are not going to join you and how could you explain this sort of

transformation once he said that it's this is the bad you know the best move on the part of

Benjamin Netanyahu right now he's just ignoring what Donald Trump is asking for

it's plain politics you've got a good German correspondent I'm sure he can explain

that Meritz is a the chancellor with a 28 percent mandate at the last election you've seen

comments from the AFD opposition that the German economic condition is catastrophic and it's

that means politically for Meritz he can lose power when he so he has to stay out of a war that's

being lost I think I first of all I think we have to emphasize that all of them trump moody even

possibly G um but certainly the Europeans and Meritz as you quoted him believed that the attack

would would win the war within three or four days you'd have regime decapitation you would have

the total destruction of air defense you would have a defenseless Iran and you would have the

lost total loss of their retaliatory capability they believe that could be done or they were told

that could be done they discussed that that could be done within three to five days they have failed

therefore they have to switch and I think that explains Germany British politics French politics

all the weak political states but let's not forget trump trump has his the disapproval raging his

edging upwards not by much but by margins half a percentage point each day or two that's not how a

winning war winning president can expect the public opinion polls of his country the United States

to be but it is the way it is why because the polls show I looked them up just before we came on

the polls show that though there is a relatively small roughly 3.5 percent gap between

disapproval of trump trump's war against Iran and approval that's hinging on the rising

disapproval of trump's inflation policy so when you correlate votes with tweets what you see

trump trying to say is folks it's short term yes we'll have an increased price on the gas pump

now but by the time may starts by the time the driving season starts it'll all be over well he has

to deliver that now why because the voters tell him that the White House technicians tell him if

you don't you'll lose worse and worse each day now each of them are in that vote each of them

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John we've we've seen two reports from broker Abid his you know he's a reporter for Axios

and he mentioned that behind the scene the foreign minister of Iran is talking with Steve

Whitcoff right after tweeting that we've seen Arachite the foreign minister we're not coming out

saying it's a total lie you know it's nothing happening and they're trying to manipulate the

market they're trying how how you you understand the way that Donald Trump is trying to resolve his

challenges well look first of all the reporting you mentioned and the publication you mentioned

isn't journalism it's straight mouthpiece and that particular journalist gets his scoops because he's

fed them he's it's it's it's classic mouthpiece propaganda first second there was a meeting between

Kushner and Whitcoff and Putin's Putin's representative president Putin sent on order

curial demitry of last Thursday if I'm not mistaken Wednesday Thursday to my happy

to negotiate with Whitcoff and Kushner notwithstanding the consensus in the security council

that never again can you trust anybody this has been clearly said by ex president demitry

at Medvedev the former president of Russia okay what there is an attempt to negotiate with Whitcoff

and Kushner but it's Russian I have no reason to disbelieve foreign minister Arachite that there's

been no negotiation between the Iranian side and those two the factional politics in Russia

different will come to that in a minute to go back to your question Iran has established itself

in two extraordinary and unanticipated ways first it has found and my whole lifetime career in politics

has been about how do we countries defend their sovereignty against powerful ones and for the first

time I've seen the first time I've seen a sustained win at the Achilles heel strategy that's what

Iran has demonstrated it's capable of it's found the Achilles heel of the empire and it's become

the gatekeeper of the homeless the geography of the world energy supply those two achievements notwithstanding

all of the damage that's been inflicted on them those two things leave the Iranian side one

isn't proud one doesn't boast one doesn't puff up one's feathers this is serious war and people die

every minute but from the Iranian side they understand because we understand the Americans are

confused now as to how to negotiate because they have to negotiate on let's call it the Moshtaba

terms we just mentioned them and they can't be seen to be negotiating with the the son of the man

they just murdered it often Kushner have discredited themselves absolutely so now is it to be done

the foreign minister of India Jashankar puts up his small hand and he's a small man and he's got

to clean up the mess of his prime minister he's proposing that India connect as a neutral it isn't

neutral and everybody understands is India under Modi in the Knesset was not neutral however

Jashankar is trying to act as the intermediary here we'll have to see whether the CIA can come up with

a formula but it can't be aabadnik like Kushner impossible impossible it will have to be

people possibly we don't know of who are credible for the representation of the

US military and credible for the representation of CIA the so-called deep state I don't know

who they are there are a lot of people who put up their hand because they figure they can make

money at it people who boast about being intermediaries are trying to sell themselves so it's got

to be extremely quiet it's got to be extremely quick and it's very hard to see how it can be done

but it can be done and I assume it must be done from a US point of view because they need to end

their war within two to three more weeks does that answer your question I think John the

basis American basis in the Persian Gulf Arab states are of particular importance for Iran

because they cannot route out the CIA in these countries but basis or something physical you

can say yes you cannot be there and how do you see the way that the Arab these Arab states

trying to communicate with Russia and do you see that they're getting to that point that they

don't need the United States to be there uh the monarchies need the United States there's no doubt

about that um the United States is the gatekeeper of their wealth the guardian of their wealth their

wealth is denominated in dollars not in deniers um the uh or deer arms or or any other form of Arab

currency uh it's an interesting question if one looks at it from a military and diplomatic and

strategic point of view Iran would Iran take the view now that a US base that has lost its radar

capacity is no longer the threat to Iran that it was and if the uh zayed family uh if the mbs

family need the u.s presence to for internal security does Iran find that a threatening I think not

um can the Arab states remember that taknon bin zayed signed an MOU for defense with Prime

Prime Minister Modi in January in January taknon and his brother signed a defense agreement with

India well it's now useless isn't it it's within months that particular pact is useless uh mbs

signed with the Pakistanis is that useless today yes it is these pieces of paper useless so um I

think the Arab states and there's lots these chaps do a lot of telephoning to foreign minister love

role uh to President Putin and others and the russian side politely uh answers the telephone

doesn't initiate too many of these telephone calls anymore they're called so the answer really

suggests or the record suggests the Arab states want the Russia Russia to intermediate with Iran

uh for some shortening of the war and an outcome that's less destructive for them they are showing by

their way they're telephoning that they too need intermediation with Iran because they lack it

directly of course they could talk directly with foreign minister Raqqchi they could but they can't

not at the moment could they accept uh a situation where the United States walks away and de facto

agrees with Iran not to rebuild the the radar system if that were agreed by the United States guess

what the Israelis will think it leaves them defenseless the AN radar plus the fact plus the patriot

system is the system that protects Israel not the iron dome not the David Sling and not the other

short range systems they've got Israel now has as Ted Post will explain a 30 second warning of

incoming Iranian attack can Israel accept a US agreement that let's leave the bases we've evacuated

thousands of men we will withdraw the the Marines and the special forces threatening hard island yeah okay

but if we don't rebuild the radars won't that be acceptable

and in effect if that were to happen what it would mean would be the US is accepting that

mutual assured destruction now exists between Israel and Iran it's stable okay now you don't

send Ted Postal between Israel and Iran to negotiate that though he clearly understands and

explained to everybody how it works but the Israelis that's certainly Netanyahu who can't accept

that for the moment I think the US could accept the let's call it non-operational status of the

bases in the Middle East that would remain to protect the Arab monarchies Bahrain Kuwait Saudi Arabia

Qatar Emirates and Omar and Jordan it can accept that that status and Iran might accept that

status and leave for the future the internal turmoil that will follow because the Arab monarchies

have showed total in capability of resisting Iran and that's for future without an energy threat

to the rest of the world that's Middle Eastern politics and it's a Middle Eastern politics in which

Israel is weaker than it has ever been now does everybody do you think I'm exaggerating here

I think the US can go on to go back in time to 45-46 when Abdul Aziz met with President Roosevelt

in Middle Lake Egypt and Roosevelt wanted to bribe Abdul Aziz to take the Palestinians out of

Palestine Abdul Aziz refused that he but Abdul Aziz accepted the need to move to the Americans to

protect the House of Saud against all the other claimants for Saudi Arabia's control and the

control of oil and I think we're heading back to a 1946 situation in which Iran might agree

but tacitly I don't know how one would negotiate that but the Americans have got to come up with

somebody within two weeks isn't that fun to watch yeah John Donald Trump shows some sort of science

that he may deliberately ignore in the facts and the battlefield or he tries to picture the situation

I don't know the level and the quality of information that he's receiving because he's talking

about all these people on streets in Iran they're fake and they're AI and it's unbelievable what he's

talking about and on the battlefield he says that everything was destroyed navy was destroyed armies

destroyed air forces destroyed 90% of their missiles were destroyed and here is what he said about

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maybe they don't want to be targeted but I say wouldn't matter if you target it or not because

this is a paper tiger that we're dealing with now it wasn't a paper tiger two weeks ago it's a

paper tiger now so you we have the case of Ukraine for four years we have a really a real war happening

between Ukraine and Russia I have never seen I have never heard you know Putin coming out and saying

that Ukraine is a paper tiger and down from after two weeks comes out and says Iran is a paper

tiger while he's begging other countries to help him in the three to four months

why is that is that is that Donald Trump is that the system what is your understanding of that

well look I've got a PhD in politics I don't have a PhD in psychopathology

nor a PhD in understanding the symptoms of a liar a chronic liar

in this particular case it's not unusual for the present the United States losing a war

are to exaggerate the winning streak I don't think Trump is is anything unusual in that

he has obviously obsessions about the success of violence he's a violent man he's probably

personally in psychopathologically the most violent individual evidence sit in the White

House as President of the United States in the outcome of this war there's one thing an individual

with that sort of psychopathology exceptionalist racist racial supremacist as he shares with his

marga constituency there's one thing they can't understand they can't understand that the week

can stand up to the strong and hit the Achilles heel that brings the big man down the Achilles

heel brings the big man down they can't understand that they do understand psychologically that

weakness is to be exploited and we've had thousands of years of understanding that the strong do what

they can the weak what they what they must to to misquote through cities Trump only understands

force and will in fact retreat when the force balance moves against him that he at this point

has to there's a lag between the failure of the first week and the failure of the the

failure of the first week we we just go through he says he and hegseth and general cane and the

others say they knocked out all of the navy they knocked out all of the air force they

as you just recited however they're not counting the fact that Iran wasn't fighting with the forces

they've knocked out they've knocked out how that wasn't being used to effect the kind of resistance

the kind of war that Iran was was waging and that waging that war survived that capacity survived

so they succeeded in destroying what didn't what didn't materially affect the balance of power

they knocked out a target that didn't six that wasn't useful was was deploy a decoy

and that's what but that's masking the failure of the first week decapitation failed

destruction of missile retaliation failed and the Iranians retain the control of energy supply

for the world that's the second week of failure home was closes and no as you said no NATO no US fleet

dares to come in not because there are mines there Iran doesn't need to mine no one needs to

mine the straits the mining of the straits would adversely affect the speed of recovery for Iran

first of all no no it's drones it's drone attacks and the US has simply failed at doing that so the

second week was the failure to keep control of the hormones where into the third week

and the question then becomes what will be the the failure of the war aims and how will the US

trump and hexeth dress up what will remain the strategic problem we've just explained

I don't find it at all surprising that trump needs to top this up he thinks and his political

technicians in the White House tell him look boss you've got your base your voter base thinks you're

winning your voter base thinks has greater level of approval for what you're doing in Iran

than it thinks in terms of approval for almost anything else you're doing so there's a negative

approval disapproval gap of let's say 3.5 percentage points on Iran whereas there is a 25 to

26 point negative approval rating for inflation so the military so the technicians the political

technicians tell trump maximize broadcast exaggerate win win win on the military because you're

getting to the voters we need there those voters will disappear with inflation with a gas pump

price they will disappear and that's going to come within the next two weeks that's what they're

afraid of so I think we will have we will see trump shift he will shift to the problem of inflation

he will shift to the problem of domestic he has to demonstrate he can win win win on the domestic

front and he can't as prices go out of control he can't what he can demonstrate for muscle flexing

is his attitude to Cuba he can say that I'm going to my siege of Cuba is succeeding I've very

cleverly diverted the Russian attention I've diverted Iranian attention I've diverted mixing

attention Mexican attention Cuba is starving for oil and oil products Russia can't save them

Russia won't save them I would say that we will see shortly trump shifting to American region

centered violence and claim victory there but he will have to shift on the one thing is political

technicians telling you must capture oil price now boss and if the message from the markets

from New York from the major banks is you must not let this war go on because the markets are

suffering credit is suffering the economy is those messages pouring on trump may not pay much

attention but when translated into political terms poll terms he will have to change his line he

can't change the way he talks as I said at the beginning you there's a direct correlation between

votes and tweets so you you interpret his tweets and these short sentences slogans and jingles

he recites over and over you you've got to see them as pictures at votes when the votes abandon

him on inflation he will change his cheer he must

John the other player you mentioned India the other player is Pakistan and yes how did you find

Pakistan so far we had the foreign minister be around if I'm not mistaken you know on yesterday

tweeting in order not in English not in Persian in order banking and in the government in Pakistan

how do you see the role of Pakistan in the whole calculation that you've just mentioned

better I ask you how you see the Iranian position of Pakistan but putting it

answering your question first and then you aren't seeing your question um Pakistan is a strategic

danger to Iran if it becomes as it has been in the past not simply a military dictatorship that's

almost a constant in Pakistan's unfortunate history unfortunate for the Pakistani people

um to the extent that it's a military dictatorship is always at war with India and always behold

into the United States its brief alliance with China is more or less over and the the war of last

April May ended the capacity of the Chinese to influence the Pakistan is effectively so if Pakistan

is always an active American platform Iran always has to be concerned with the possibility of

US special operations using helicopters on Pakistani territory to fly into the east of Iran

I understand from some sources that that's happened it's been denied if Mr. Iraqi is

courting Pakistan he's trying to say don't put all your eggs in an American basket

you were already disappointed by putting some of your eggs in the Chinese basket it didn't work

very well during last year's Kashmir war so I see an attempt by Iran to achieve a neutral position

from Pakistan as neutral as the Pakistanis can be in their circumstances of considerable dependency

on the US and on Saudi Arabia for catch so um from the Iranian point of view I would be courting

both the Pakistanis and the Indians right now and hope that they can as it were

don't walk again into warfare the the the damages both of them but but leaving that aside I would

say Iraqi's approach now is a balanced one it's a reasonable one for a neighbor it's a historical

cultural affinity since Darius Darius the 2500 years ago and his sons Xerxes were both

rulers of what's called Pakistan today all the way up to the Indus and into the Punjab and into

the Sindh the Persia has been a very important force culturally I'm not telling you I'm speaking

a bit for our audience you understand that therefore um I think the Iranian position has to be

a very balanced one in in the courteous cultured way that Iraqi can perform towards both

Pakistan and India and if that requires speaking in Urdu or is speaking in Hindi

uh Mr. Akchi can manage both of those yes he will but but the big but is the fact of the matter is

the US is walking away or will walk away from this conflict thinking they've drawn India closer

than they were before this conflict and they maintain their position

Trump's position with us if Muni the ruler of Pakistan that they had before the war

Saudi Arabia is still is always going to be a source of cash for its own self for the protection

of the ruling family now I don't see that speaking in Urdu politely to Islamabad

um makes a significant change in the strategy the significance change in the strategies coming from

from uh the home wars yeah thank you so much John for being with us today great pleasure as always

thank you Neema let's see if the war of two weeks away uh will be the same next week and let's see

if the way we began uh Prime Minister Netanyahu can demonstrate more than lifting a cup of coffee or

talking to a pair of girls uh whether the whether there has been or is underway a military

put in Israel that will remove him from command those are the two big takeaways for today

and let's see if we're wrong if we're right uh in a week's time yeah yeah

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