Justin Jefferson + Bhayshul Tuten | Dynasty Assets With The Most To Lose In 2026

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After a very long and stressful week,

there's nothing I enjoy more than taking the time

to talk about dynasty, fantasy, football assets,

like we are going to do today.

Today, Andy Buckler and I are discussing assets

that have the most to lose in 2026 and why?

It's Dynasty Points Market Report,

and it starts right now.

Let's go.

Hello, everybody.

Thank you for joining us.

If you are joining us again,

well thanks for coming back.

If you're new here, well, welcome in, have a seat,

and join us in our small corner

of the dynasty fantasy football space.

Want to say thank you to everyone that reached out this week.

You guys are wonderful.

We have such an incredible community.

So again, thank you.

Thank you.

Helps me look forward to doing shows like this at the end of week,

like it was this week.

Shout out to everyone listening from from flock fantasy,

from ETR, a bunch of communities that I got to mix it up

with for the first time really directly here over the last week

in different discord found out, you know, we have some more

more listeners from other areas of the fantasy space.

So shout out to you guys, shout out to everybody.

All that being said, Buck, it feels like an eerie year in 2026.

It's like a weird set of values.

There's the this class is still going to be valuable.

This class still has studs, rookies, rookies, rookies.

Over kind of painting the best pictures we can with what I feel like

are blinders on.

And then there's I feel like the way that we lean a little bit more,

which is 2026 is the year to to win.

Right, we know the 2027 class is coming, 2028 class is coming.

There's a lot more projectible upside with those classes.

That's why those picks have been hard to get for years now.

That doesn't mean it's all steam ahead for all these assets into 2026

because the 2027 class is coming.

So that's how we're going to look at today's episode.

We're going to look at players that could lose significant value of things

don't go their way or they're aging out, etc.

Before this 2027 class comes and kind of wipes the slate clean.

I feel like some of these guys are getting a bit of a boost

because of how the 2026 class is being viewed on the average.

So that's how we're setting it up.

That's the podcast today.

Let's dive right into it.

I don't want to waste any time.

I don't get any more comments about our love for baseball,

which is one week away, by the way.

Let's dive right into it.

First player you have on your sheet book.

What do you want to talk about?

For the other like a fantasy favorite of the off-season end people here at fantasy

points, we go with a baseball too.

I think he isn't off-season winner for sure.

I've talked last podcast about how I changed my tune a little bit on the

Chris Rodriguez thing and I think he matters a little bit more.

Maybe not as much as like Evan Silva thinks he matters,

but I do think shout out to him by the way.

I'm not just talking should I do I do appreciate them over there.

But I think he does matter a little bit.

I think I'll have his role.

I think two end does just have a lot to lose.

Obviously just being a day three pick that has kind of gotten thrown out of the

window just because of winning the off-season.

And he's just like he's a weird asset that has a lot of value

because he's like a fantasy favorite guy.

And like I think he should.

I think he should have a decent amount of boost,

but you can get it you can sell him and buy him pretty much

all day for 27 ones.

And he's just a player I would just move off of and just take the first.

You can add to him you can get to Kenneth Walker.

That's that we got a question like that recently.

Because I think if you know two and if like he loses his role or it hasn't

go his way like we think like he does he's not going to have a lot of grace

just based on his draft position and based on the fact that

we've seen how what teams want to do with day three backs like that.

And it could just be like the Chris Rodriguez show and we can get like

if people remember I know it was Urban Meyer.

So it's a lot different.

But if you kind of remember how they were using ETN

didn't have to I don't mean or mean to be at the same team.

But when they had James Robinson and how they were using like ETN

and like a really like.

Cool way for their team, but not great for fantasy.

He was eventually he actually actually wasn't where Meyer was the second year

because he did he misses ETN misses entire rookie season whatever Meyer.

So it's actually the second season where ETN ended up being actually ended up

being a league winner towards the end of the year when he kind of took over.

After it was the second you know it was the Robinson Achilles season

second year coming off of that then he took over.

But in the first like eight weeks of the season he was running like

you know he's getting like four carries a game.

He was running like wider sewer stuff.

He got like eight touches and they were like you know big play explosive

touches but either he got him or he didn't.

And that was it and then they used you know Robinson as a grinder

and he wasn't really good at it and then he stayed there for most of the role.

I could see that being with two and like the use him as like a super gadget

running back.

I know he has taken some goal line stuff last year which is a positive for

sure but ETN hasn't been a great goal line wrestler his entire career

around regas was decent last year and he profiles as a goal line back like a big

back like that so and he's really good in efficiency metrics.

So I think if it doesn't happen for two and like he's going to drop a bunch of

rounds and a start up and just value in general he's just a player that

I think if you're you're happy.

I obviously there's people that just love that dude and they want to buy him

every league and you can't tell him shit about him like that he's one of those players

such as where it is like he has shooters we're going to get comments just for this in general but

if it doesn't go his ways and lose a lot of value I think he has I think he could it's more

likely that he loses four rounds of value then gains like two and a half to three rounds of value.

So he's honestly a player just kind of want to sell because I don't see the upper tier ceiling

with running back we want the historic season.

That's what we you know legendary season that's what we look for I don't know if he has that

and just he has a short leashes with his draft pick and stuff and he's gained a ton of value

after not having any so he's a player that I would sell and I think has like a lot of

I think he has he's probably the riskiest running back because he's now jumped into like

a tier with some real players now he was a 10th round pick now he's like a probably like a six round

pick maybe a fifth.

I think you're right I think he needs the run out.

I think there's more concern with just Rodriguez we talked about that

on the last podcast I'm not going to go back through all of the coach speak stuff but

it sounds like the queen alan is going to have a role so what does it actually look like

if you get outside of the toot and bubble I don't think it's that

big of a season for him I think he is still just kind of viewed as like a very explosive day

three pick I think we live inside the toot and bubble right that's where we get the toot toot

for toot and stuff like I feel like we're directly in that bubble a lot because of fantasy points

and because we're on Twitter like we always want these players to succeed but

I think you're right I think this is it if Chris Rodriguez is the nobody that people say he is

that they said he was last year with jacory if the queen alan doesn't actually matter and if

Cohen is still this you know the rb guru then the the path should be there for toot and if he

doesn't hit it I think you're right and with 2027 coming I do not think he has the the leeway

to have it not happen this year so I think you're right lots to lose for him I'm going to go with

another running back actually I'm going to go to trevian Henderson he's a mid to early fourth round

pick after being more of a two three turn pick the year before you got the landing spot it obviously

boomed him up as a rookie he was very good in stretches but we all know the story with the rhino

trevian Henderson Ramondri Stevenson kind of snatches the chain every time he gets healthy

even post fumbles Stevenson back on the team what's that role going to look like and with the 2027

class coming I think that we're always going to have the people that believed in the tape or

believe in the film you know the prospect profile you're going to hear a lot with that but if he

doesn't just outright take the job and he does not hit that are that top 14 let's say rb season top

12 rb season because Ramondri Stevenson is still in the mix way too much taking goal line carries

Drake make continues to run if we just don't see that real ceiling I think that we could be with

the 2027 class we're looking at an asset that's a sixth round seventh round pick and that may seem

insignificant but I don't think it is sixth seventh round by my by our ADP we're talking about

Chuba Hubbard all right we're talking about Judkins post injury like those week like those are iffy

iffy assets so and then if we look on thinecy datalad it's like kairan javante and josh shakeams in the

sixth round that's it nobody wants those guys we talk about it all the time so now we're looking at

pure project it upside I think he needs to not only tape the job but I think he needs a bigger

role than what he showed last year a lot of a lot of breakaway runs and I'm not the if you remove

the big play guy because he's that type of player right but he needs more of them I'll tell you

that much 100% he does I think he needs to 60 40 this backfield at least otherwise again I think

you're really there are still people offering the 103 the 102 ahead of him or for him let's say if he

does not hit that upside I think that's gonna look horrendous like I know that there's very few bell

cow running backs out there and we should probably temper our expectations but I remember even on

dynasty points with Jacob and Ryan we were talking about Ryan said I don't think he's gonna get

like the goal line stuff he may never get it then he had it for like the week to two weeks when

Ramondra was out I could be I could be butchering this I'm going by memory and then Ramondra came back

and it was it was just Ramondra again so tough I think he needs I think he needs more of the work

I think he needs again 60 65 maybe 70 30 this backfield for this 80 p to kind of really go up

again I think you're I think we're looking at a big slide I think he's already had a slide when

you look at what rookie running backs generally do I think we're getting a big slide here if

things do not break right in my opinion yeah he's a player I don't know what to do with much he goes

around the fourth round and like those players it starts to get really ugly like once you get

until like the done like the wide receiver at 13 14-ish it's ugly like you're starting to look at

Rishi Rice all his issues Marvin Harrison we'll talk about later all his issues lad BTJ

like those are the you know early teens wide receivers and then like he goes like he goes around

like Tyler Warren I think and stuff I um I agree that he has a lot of room to lose but I do think

he'll be in like Dynasty good graces a little bit longer just because of just because of how much

how people viewed him and everything he was a high second round pick I think you will get a little

bit more time just like like Darius Geiss was awful he got hurt every year before you know he got

it was out of the league he held Dynasty value for so long because people loved him cone out of

LSU he kept getting hurt obviously Travians and uh issues so far hasn't been injuries been getting

on the field I do think like when we talk about the legendary RB season I do think there's a path

for him to actually have one I think there's a path for him to have a 20 points per game season

so I would or 22 points per game like so I would bet on him like I'm interested in taking the

bet on him also at the same time do kind of want him off my teams as well like I have a team where

he's my RB 3 and like I would like to turn him into a wide receiver and I've tried and it hasn't

really happened I got him at the 108 one of our leagues and I've been trying to trade him for like

like James Cook type but like something back or like I tried to trade him I tried to actually trade

him for Tyler Warren I just couldn't get you know get those deals done so some leagues you know his

values a little bit different I think in the fourth round I'm fine taking the shot just based on

like ceiling and floor outcomes I think I'll be able to hold a decent amount of value and

we we are looking at like a risky asset we've talked about in the past in sense of like you know

he comes out week one and he gets eight carries and you know runs you know 15 routes and gets

three targets and that's his role again well he's going to drop and we'll be telling you to buy

you know after week one because it's he's going to drop a lot and obviously when things matter

when there's money time down the stretch for the Patriots like he was not playing you know he played

a little bit in the Super Bowl he didn't play in pretty much any of the playoffs games prior to

the Super Bowl even though he looked like maybe their most explosive player in the Super Bowl didn't

matter they shouldn't use him too much and we have this like he's like a Traveon's like he's

a space monster like that's what type of player he is like that's what we want him to be we don't

want to like pound him in between the 20s you know between the tackles 20 times like that's not his

game and they were doing that a little bit and he struggled like he he had some you know bad tape

out there and some bad you know bad metrics of just like you know he was missing the whole he was

he he looked very indecisive he was similar to like if people remember Jonathan Taylor's rookie

season how bad that started and how he was like a legitimately like bad NFL running back

Traveon had some points of that and then he had points is really really good if they use him the

right way in the right scheme which I'm going to say year two of drafting him like I'm going to

lean towards the fact that their their role is going to be like they're going to give him a better

role and the and obviously his his past pro thing was probably the most like disappointing thing

of his whole entire rookie season is because coming out so I don't really care about the past pro

stuff anymore like I care about it but I don't care who you tell me is a good past pro a past

protector in college like I just don't care like because it's a little bit different in college

than it is in a film like almost none of this stuff when we talk about oh like these past pro

grades like not almost none of it like translates like this to his supposed to be a legend like a

historic past pro historically historic and past pro he comes to the NFL he's awful he can't

even get on the field in third downs because that bad he is at at it and Ramanjra is like fine

not even great at it he's probably a better just pure past catcher than Ramanjra but he couldn't

get himself on the field so I'm I'm interested in buying but I do think like yeah he he can

absolutely crater but I do I do think there'll be like a corner of the dynasty market that's

always going to be perpetually buying him based on his name and stuff and I don't necessarily think

like he has a getting like get replaced but his role might just never be what it his role might

just never be what we wanted to be and he might not be as good to you know really thrive in a

Kamara Gibbs role like we kind of thought maybe if he has a role it's fine because we don't want

like I don't care if he gets 30 carries like I don't care if Ramanjra takes all the

in between the 20 stuff like I really don't care we thought he would get all the fun stuff

and be good at it and he would have he'd be like a one-play player and he still kind of was

but and we we thought like his rookie season again is similar to a mecca Buka that we usually

see the rookies like at the end of the year is when they take over that that's when it starts

starts off slow then they take off the end a Buka starts off hot nothing in the end of the season

Henderson started off slow had a runway in the second in like the middle of the season was

really really good towards the second half the dude was not playing he was a zero to the team

we'd never see stuff like that so that's concerning it's not even just a narrative like that's

concerning that they went away from him when they're supposed to be the hottest so I do agree that

he is a you know a risk guess he's a lot he's a lot to lose he also has a lot to gain though too

if he has a great rookie season a second season like way more the gain than like two and I think

because I think the upsides actually there for a player like Henderson

he actually said that really well I think you're right I think he is going to hold a little

bit of value but I just feel like if he doesn't meet that extreme expectation that people had

for him I think we'll see a significant drop I think you're right that the people are so afraid

to miss out on the breakout that their his price to sell won't actually reflect what his ADP is

that makes sense I feel like there's just going to be a gap between those two values so

we'll probably lay somewhere in the middle I think you're right with that all right let's take

our first break and then come back we have some more players to talk about right after this don't

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over the place today I'll get back into rhythm it's been a long week it's been a really really

long week so we're gonna get back in a rhythm here stay locked in with this buck let's

talk Marvin Harrison junior uh people obviously afraid like I mentioned of that third year break out

we've had multiple lengthy discussions who is to blame for Marvin Harrison junior this elite

prospect he should be a lock from from here on to to see what we saw at Ohio State yeah obviously

the Marvin Harrison thing we've been on discord it's been on yeah I don't even call it argue I

can't call that I was arguing with people because I really don't like I don't care but it's not

something that affects me very much so I don't think I was arguing I was having a trying to have

civil conversations just not getting them back all the time and that's not people in discourse

more so Twitter that where I was getting like I just couldn't have a normal conversation which it's

the internet so I guess that's my fault for trying to have a normal conversation that's but

as JJ Zacharyson always says uh never tweet yeah exactly so speaking of JJ Zacharyson please

bring back the retired player a bit I need any and bring that back next year and if anyone knows

what I'm talking about please drop in the comments but Marvin Harrison junior obviously he's very

divisive probably the most divisive player we have and everything about him first of all I'm

actually shocked he's told that I guess I'm not shocked after talking to people but he's wide

receiver 18 and dynasty he's in the absolute like dead zone or wide receivers like you get into

the Rashid like we talked about the Rashid's the BTJ like all the failed second second year wide

receivers he objectively has not been a good pro through two seasons you know he had I know

people try to pick like his rookie season he had you know 800 yards eight touchdowns he had like

140 of in one game and two or three touchdowns against the Rams a lot of people want to blame Kyler

Murray and I think that's kind of not fair to Kyler I know I know Kyler is another player that's

super hated we have all the stupid you know tired call it duty jokes and the height jokes and you

know all that stuff but he has been productive for fantasy wide receivers especially when he's

had good ones like I think that's where I'm missing here is like he's getting duck like Kyler Murray

is getting double counted for not helping like Christian Kirk which he actually did help to get

a massive contract and he was running you know a bunch of nine routes you know low percentage stuff

had like 800 something yards with Kyler and you know got paid so that's not even a real narrative

he played with dusty uh Larry Fitzgerald he was literally like 35 years old playing in the slot with him

Hollywood Brown was averaging 19 points for a game for he broke his foot after they traded

a first time pick for him that looked like he was going to be like the wider series six overall

so that's also false if you look at the end of the year and people want to bring up Zach

Earths a tight end who when they traded for him he was dust with the Eagles he comes over

plays 10 games with the Cardinals he had like 70 catches or 600 yards that's also false he did help

Earths as well and then you know trademark bride was their wide receiver one for two years and he

helped him to tie it into season now the tight touchdown stuff whatever like you want to say

like you want you want to say that that's Kyler's fault whatever we could buy he's still a tight

end to overall as far as Marv like if you look at that early stuff in the season when he was healthy

when Kyler was healthy he was getting hemmed up versus press like every play like they were trying

to do it like they want to blame everything about the coach and everything about Kyler and Kyler

you could say what you want about him but he's still like a top 17 top 18 you can even say top

20 quarterback look at some of the guys who you know started at quarterback last year

for teams around the league like I think Kyler's fine also everyone absolutely loved the spot for

Marv when it happened it jumped Kyler up to the one two turn startups and Marv was going

in the early second sometimes first round of startups for he's ever played an NFL game and a lot

of it had to do with oh the Kyler spot is great and Kyler it's not like Kyler and Kyler and

Clinton not even Cliff Kyler and Cliff is funny but I know he's gone but it's not like Kyler

Murray doesn't want Marv and Harrison to succeed like he asked them to draft him like they tried

they had all the sessions you know last season it's just like maybe the dude is just not that good

like maybe Marv and Harrison is just not that good and I think that's something that people need

to understand and we don't know like what are we chasing it's what do you win when you win like

okay so we're looking we're gonna draft Marv wide receiver 18 because we think he could be a

wide receiver two so then what do you get if he's you know wide receiver 16 maybe he holds a

little bit of extra you know dynasty value but what about when he's wide receiver 31 and going

in the next year like he he's gonna be done and if you're the if you're the Marv and Harrison

like you want to have the bull case for him I guess your bull case would be you can make the excuse

and say oh he didn't get to play with Jacobi Berset when they had the massive p-ro scam

and he you know up to everyone there he did actually play a decent amount of games with Jacobi

Berset when I looked I thought it was less he was bad and all but two of them I know he did leave

one with a concussion it was like three for 30 and 20 snaps or whatever he had one legitimately

good game with Jacobi Berset he comes back obviously it was like hurt and stuff who won't count

the end of the year he's playing next year with Jacobi Berset who's definitely gonna lose that job

by week six he's awful and he was awful last year and if you look at the stats deep down

no he was not a better quarterback than Kyler he wasn't a better quarterback than Kyler last year

playing on the same team the same as like offense his QBR and everything was worse he was worse than

Kyler just last year and that's not me like that's a real fact that's that's that's you can look

at the stats to see that that's not me just saying that and then they signed Gardner Minshu is

probably gonna play at some point too so not only is like Marv maybe not as good as we think he

probably isn't as good as we think like through two years he's you know 1.6 yards per outrun

he's also in a terrible situation where he's definitely the number two target owner on his team

at least who knows it's going on with you know the Michael Wilson thing he could be third in the

pecking order and the quarterback situation sucks and everyone said and this is the funniest part

and I'm sorry I'm not trying to be rude but someone said oh my main reason for Marv is maybe he'll

do good with the new OC I was sitting down I was like man actually I forgot who did they hire

who is the OC I was like man I forgot who that is who is that it's Nathaniel Hackett like I

thought that was fake there was the fun like you if you told me to guess the funniest OC I would he

would be like my second guest probably Adam Gase would just be first off a principal and then I

would probably guess not Nathaniel Hackett's second that's the OC now they have an offensive head

coach devil a floor right so maybe maybe maybe it doesn't matter but their offensive coordinator

is Nathaniel Hackett like the probably the biggest clown outside of Arthur Smith and Maligra

now so I would like calm down some of this and they're going to be awful and last year I know they

were I know they were like like they had they were pure skin skin like we talked about but they

were also like they lost it was way different than any other shitty team because they were getting

down 21 nothing like the first quarter like percent will come out like fumble twice throw a pick

and they're down they played three minutes down 21 nothing they throw 70 times they're just not

gonna they're gonna be bad there's just not it's not gonna happen next year like that bad

but it's happening every game I remember they were down 28 nothing to the Seahawks like the game

started at 405 they were down 28 nothing at like 424 like I don't think that's gonna happen again

so I think Marv has a lot to lose because three years of bad you see still gonna probably have

some of his people but I think you know he's a fourth round pick and I think if you have Marv

right now as a fourth round pick and you you still have me as a fourth round pick I really think

you should be happy and be like and be lucky that he saw as much value you should get rid of him

because I don't think the ceilings there I think it'd be a fine player and people want to talk

about mental with him man I don't know and I'm not gonna sit here and think about that because

that's not a winning strategy and fantasy to talk about oh you know he's mentally not there or

maybe he'll get it together it's like okay and maybe Mark L. Foltz wouldn't forget how to

shoot a basketball and he remember again and he didn't like I don't know what's going on

these people's lives all we have his numbers were a fantasy show like I don't know if it's mental

and I don't really like don't mean I don't care if it is because how do I add how do we put that

in our analysis if it's mental or not like I don't know like hopefully it isn't and hopefully

you can get a straight but he's been getting hemmed up like he is a player that is born in the

wrong era like we tied I've made the jelica four comp with him before like it's so similar

like jelica four played in the 80s like he'd probably be a top five center in the league

if Marvin Harris and junior played you know in the 90s early 2000 and those cluster receivers

were good like maybe maybe he'd be better and the other thing people use is the you know the

neighbors thing or he's not neighbors like he doesn't move around formation because he's not

that type of player so like if you're looking for those type of layup targets for marve you're

probably not getting them it's not his archetype of style like T Higgins is to get a bunch of

layup targets because he's not that type of player right like marve is closer to T Higgins

and that elk or even Drake London who's a better separator than both of those guys but also

doesn't get you know he's not getting bubble screens and stuff so if that's like what you're saving

grace for marve like that I think that's kind of a poor one but yeah the marve thing is crazy

like I do get like I do also get taking the shot when you get to some of those ugly receivers but

at the point where I was taking a running back or whatever and he isn't like his value he's at

the 103 in startups 103 rookie pick you can't buy him for you know I get I just tried for science I

tried 109 and value 108 and I used to get laughed at I had people sending me 80p so yeah I think

marve has a lot to lose I'm shocked that he's even held this much value and I think it's an

interesting conversation and JS and a scarred pretty much everybody that's what I was gonna say it's

the JSN thing we don't want to miss out on a 30 year wire receiver because look what JSN did

there's this is the big difference and this is where I miss with JSN initially out of this

JSN produced in his second year he did it just is what it is it may not have been

the upper tier elite stuff it was a lot of you know a lot of drag routes a lot of screens there

was the big game when DK was out right against the patriots sorry he had won when DK was in there still

the moment he was out but it was a lot of we all knew and I tweeted about it a bunch it was like

Seahawks are down or tied it's half or toward the end of the game you can guarantee that JSN

was getting four exceptions for 55 yards and a touchdown on those drives that's just but he

produced he was really good but you got a discount with JSN after year one he fell

significantly in ADP and we should have been buying if you did buy you were ahead of the curve

I had to buy after because I made the mistake you're not getting a discount with Marth

you're not getting a discount with Roma Dunze because a lot of people will say well now it's the

year three breakout it's fully back there was one even if you look at guys like Parker Washington

who broke out last year do you know the circumstances that had to happen for that to be a thing

like it's not just a copy and paste cookie cutter formula different coaches different situations

different environments again Marv is not going to be the one on that team we you feel pretty

confident about it and now he has legit target competition competition at the same position

in in Michael Wilson because you've talked about it before you don't just put that kind of

breakout back in the bag so it's now year three the situation is completely changed in Arizona

it's like you said what do you win what do you win when you win with a player like him and a lot

of people will be like the same thing with Josh downs right well Michael Pittman is gone even on his

you know his targets for outrun rate he could score 14 points per game 14.1 points per game

would be wide receiver 16 14.5 points per game is wide receiver 12 there were 16 wide receivers

in the entire NFL that hit 14 plus points for game on the season so 14 is not just what it used

to be we've talked about how devalued the wide receiver two has been Jamison Williams everyone's

favorite like mass breakout 12.2 one Dale 13.6 a legit league winner right you're getting into

like the Devonta Smith Roma dunes a Alec Pierce 10 Macmillan 12.5 in his rookie year I'm sorry if

if you're asking me if I think Marv even touches the T Higgins area of production I'm going to say no

he has not shown anything close so it sounds easy to say 14 points per game in reality

in actual scoring yes points per game is not the most in depth and accurate

like predictive stat I get it but point scored is and he just doesn't score enough of them

and I've looked at our early projections keep in mind industry leading projections here at fantasy

points.com first round of projections 10.3 points per game not great Bob so I don't know if he

produces even like Quentin Johnston did last year at 12.3 points per game with serious upside

games I just don't know so there's no discount on him for all the reasons that buck laid out

a lot of narrative stuff it's a lot of look at his tape and I'll be honest with you I'm

I'm kind of fed up with watch the tape season online it can't really be argued

because when you watch something on tape quote I'm putting air quotes but you can't can see it's a

podcast not yet soon you will be able to it's I'm not a film guy we have a film team I rely on them

they said he looked bad so to me good enough this is what it is when you're talking about

well did you watch the tape did you watch the film I'm sorry but I mean it's in the most

respectful way possible most people don't know actually what they're watching for

but the conversation just ends up spiraling in the nowhere I feel like just watching film

it is confirming a lot of your bias right we have data and film that works together

and right and most of these people don't watch film like I'm they don't watch film

may watch the game on the Sunday like I'm sorry majority of these people that have told me that

which I just got a bunch about Drew Aller Penn State and bio it's like how many of these people

like you've never watched a play though buck yeah you've never watched a Penn State game I've never

seen Drew Aller play in my life I know nothing about football I know nothing about stats

meanwhile I live an hour away from you didn't have you didn't need you didn't have Penn State

season tickets like what are you talking about yeah I've never seen them even though I've

went to every single game well pretty much since before last year but okay it's like you people

aren't watching I need to do the you people but the twitter people you aren't they aren't saying

they're watching all first of all it's really hard to get a hold of like art all 22 college film

first of all like number one and that is film all 22 film and watching on Saturdays are two

different things like me I'm not going to say I'm pretend that I watch a bunch of film like I

I don't I like to watch some of the prospects this year I haven't like I have done I don't know

like I'm not going to pretend like I know everything because I don't I have watched like

prospect film before do I watch like Marvin Harrison film like his all 22 like like no I don't

and I don't think I have to and I think the people telling me that also don't yeah you could

walk you could have five film people and they could all tell you a different thing you're also

most of those people that watch film are picking like three games or four games some people might

watch their worst game first whatever and then they say okay but there's still so many other

games that you're not seeing because no one's watching every single game of every player that's

impossible knowing at some time for that like even like Marvin this year right even even watching

11 games in his film that's really hard it's a lot of time first of all you don't know who is

like the number one you could I watch some JTL Sullivan right and he kind of breaks out some of

it he even says a bunch of times that he doesn't fully know he's not in the room either but I

watch that he's breaking down the film and you could see he tells like you could learn some stuff

about wide receiver play and stuff and in those videos the QB school but you don't know who the

one is on certain plays who the ball is actually designed to go to like you don't you don't know right

so sometimes you'll have like you know the screenshots of an all 22 would be like more of running

right wide open down the sideline but they won't it would just be a snapshot but you won't see like

okay Kyler is actually like getting like sacked and on that player that play wasn't even for him like

you see all like that's why you know screenshot Twitter is the worst but yeah like the film thing like

I don't know just give me a break with that like and I get like analytics versus film is a debate

doesn't have to be like we can use both and we could do both but most of the time like people bring

up that arguments because they already lost it and they're like you said there's no like I can't

say anything to just watch the film there's nothing I can say because there's gonna like there's

nothing you can say right because it's it's um you know it's it's it's it's not you know it's

film film is subjective like I don't know I can't tell you like you could three people can tell you

different things but everyone could look at the data and they could most of the people can tell you

the same thing so yeah I think the film thing is is crazy and most of most of the people are just

watching just bombs highlights like let's just be real shout out to just bombs highlights because I

am also watching this as well shout out just bombs highlights you're right and it's it's part of

the larger conversation with somebody like marve yeah you never you never hear about the bad player

that they had on their board that they wanted so bad though you always hear about how bad they

wanted to trade out for pukka there's how here how bad they wanted to share from my homes we never

hear about all the five teams trying to trade out for dross Rosen or something those never come out

but oh john harbaugh wanted one it said on dig so bad in the draft he went in the sixth round you could

have got him like so I don't know with that and yeah it's it's crazy out there especially with the

with the marve stuff but I mean obviously we'll see I had something else but I can't remember now

so I guess I said too too big of a side tangent but yeah I think it all I think it all

formulates together there's no discount on him you're not getting any cost benefit for what

is upside is his expected points for game was 12.2 that was what he was expected to get that would

put him at wide receiver 28 so still a wide receiver three only he's ever really finished in that top

24 for any of the major statistical categories that we really care about at any time consistently

ever that's a problem so what's the upside here versus like you said others that you could tear

sideways to or tear down to or draft the 103 how we'll take a shot at one of the wide receivers at

103 even if I think this class is kind of booty we'll see and again in a different position and

draft a guy like Terry McClore and the ninth who's probably gonna score marve right at least

probably score the same you would imagine right like yeah it's not hard to do when the floor is

12.2 expected points per game it's just not hard to do especially at the cost right so

right so with I remember so with 2027 coming in and we know the wide receiver class is already

being talked about if marve doesn't hit which is the big point of this episode as a whole

if you don't get the run out from marve 2027 class is just coming in and I think it tanks it

tanks is value completely it's gonna be really hard to defend a year four breakout for a player

that's never done it unless they it's gonna be like I don't know who the number one quarterback is

in the 2027 class is it arch if it's if it's archmanning shows up in in Arizona then maybe you're

gonna start hearing the like manning to Harrison the arch is gonna do it like you can kind of start

to see it but and the odds are cardinals probably won't even get the number one pick every team that

we put at the number one pick that we think like they were getting the number one pick for sure when

it was when it was Kayla Williams remember everyone was going to Arizona and they didn't like most

of the time you know the win an extra game or whatever like do I think statistically the like

do I think on paper though the worst scene in the NFL I think probably but the worst scene in

the NFL doesn't always get the number one pick like it's really hard it's really like the Jets had

you know Trevor Lawrence till they didn't you know the giants had you know they pick all the

quarterbacks until they didn't and Arizona was getting Caleb until they didn't like we never know

so odds are like they could win a couple extra games they have the six pick and I didn't get one

of the QBS yep very well said we're gonna take a break when we come back we're gonna finish up

with a couple more players here don't go anywhere all right let's talk about some wide receivers these

are the last two that I really want to hit on here before we get out of here but I want to talk

about some of the old heads at wide receiver now you and I have briefly touched on this before

but Justin Jefferson and CD Lamb have a lot to lose this season in terms of overall value

let's look at Justin Jefferson who's already lost some over the last year because

well he was barely a wide receiver three wasn't his fault was the quarterback situation

well guess what here comes Kyler Murray again by his Kyler Murray's all over this episode

if Kyler Murray does not return Justin Jefferson to glory or even if they turn to Carson Wentz

again who just resigned and that doesn't happen or worst case scenario a player I was super wrong

about and JJ McCarthy finds his way back into games now we're getting older 27 year old

wide receivers don't hold elite dynasty value very often you have to be same thing is 28 we just

do not see it AJ Brown saw his value kind of go down it was a great situation for him to

Nico Collins is in that range as well and yes none of them are Justin freaking Jefferson Justin

Jefferson's no longer quarterback proof that was kind of help propping prop him up he was still

elite with other quarterbacks was not the case last year new receiver class coming in in 27

big receiver class another down year with I'm sorry but you want to talk about teams that I

don't think are going to be bad enough to get a high draft pick and their choice of quarterback

Minnesota is one of them you can still go into 2027 with a ton of uncertainty at quarterback

and a one year older wide receiver were all begging for a trade for it's just not hard to see a

path for Jefferson losing his elite status this year if it goes south and to me what is south for him

not scoring 14 and a half 15 points per game is is going south to me I'm not sure what that is

for you buck yeah I mean it's it's the same it's having a repeat of the same season or really

close to it I mean if he has repeated the same season he's dead like he he had one game over 20

points I I was thinking about this like the other day because we have talked about Jefferson we

actually had a really long conversation about him a few pods back those pretty good I think I

was shocked that he had this bad season as he did I know he dropped some passes and stuff but I

did think he was quarterback proof like before last season he was having like he was having a

Justin Jefferson type season with wins like he was you know 18 points per game so it was probably

going to happen if Winston ever gets hurt you just played the rest of the season so we do have

that but I was shocked that like just they just couldn't get them the ball when McCarthy and I

know McCarthy has that weird thing we literally can only throw to one side the field and then

showed up in college and I showed up again then it fell but I was thinking about it like I've

drafted Justin Jefferson a couple times now at the late second in startups and I thought about

it their day and I was like and I traded him away for crystal lobby in the 106 and I was thinking

that the day I was like man like sometimes this is as simple as like it's Justin Jefferson it's

just an effing Jefferson like maybe he's gonna do it again he's gonna have 1800 yards next year

and I think like if that's your rationale I don't even think it's a terrible one because sometimes if

you want to like we're I don't want to completely count out one of the greatest wider series of

regeneration and that's what he's been and he's still in his absolute prime of wider series now he's

losing his prime of dynasty years like that is a fact like he has to have another top five season to

hold in the next year being you know what a second round startup pick when he will be going

to his age 28 season similar to CD as well but I think he just could do it I think I think it might

be a little bit less of a percentage than it used to be but I think he has wider series one overall

still in his you know his range of possibility for sure his range of outcomes and I do think like

he has he has been a player that has been he's one of the few wide receivers especially superstar

wide receivers in the league that has been a little bit less vocal than all the other ones

than last year we saw some frustration bleed through you saw some interviews you normally don't see

they obviously want to get back into Justin's ever since you know good graces for sure so they're

going to like he they're going to give him all the targets like he's going to you know the whole

offense is going to be around him I I believe Kyler the Kyler doesn't have to be good he just has to

be not terrible he has to be out he has to be what he's been his whole career and it will be fine

I know he struggled through the middle of field a little bit but Justin Jefferson is a wide

receiver that could get a bunch of lay up targets and stuff and you know you have people saying like

oh you know but Kyler Murray is not Sam Donald I mean Sam Donald wasn't Sam Donald when he was

playing with Justin Jefferson at that point everyone was mad that it was Sam Donald throwing to

Justin Jefferson and Justin Jefferson fell that time too and obviously I mean there was other things

that go into the Sam Donald you know resurgence but playing with Justin Jefferson for a year I'm

sure helped it as well so I think I think it helped Kyler Murray too so I'm not I do believe that

Justin Jefferson has a lot to lose and I was you know super on the side I wanted to trade him away

but I do want to recognize now that you are trading away like Justin Jefferson and it's done

as that sounds it's like still Justin Jefferson be a little bit more careful with him because he's

still you know damn good I don't think he fell off I know there wasn't any injury last year versus

kind of concerning but he could just have one blip in the radar season he's back to what he was

and if he's back to what he has been he's you know Dynastie White is three again even with his age

because he'd be giving us those Devonte Adams prime years and like we still have 27 28 and 29

of that that's that is the Y2C or NFL prime it's just not great for Dynastie value but I think

I think he does have a lot to lose but I I want to be a little more careful than I was with him

maybe a week or two it like a month ago probably I agree that was really well said better than

I was saying it if it doesn't happen then you're rolling into the age 28 season after back-to-back subpar

years and a murky quarterback situation probably a new head coach that's where I think he

he is opportunity to fall out of the truly elite like even if he were to fall to where Niko

Collins is right now Niko Collins is drafted as a Y2C for one but he's not an elite Dynastie asset

and like he said it's different than what we were getting with the Devonte Adams prime

28 29 age season so he has a lot to lose similarly so to CDLAM

now hear me out here I've referred to CDLAM as the most acquirable elite wide receiver

in Dynastie for a couple of years now he's always so damn good but always so acquirable

if he doesn't absolutely smash George Pickens when they're both healthy in point per game and

targets and just pure production I think he also loses his truly elite status when the 2027 class

comes rolling in George Pickens I've already seen in conversation it's not even a lock that George

Pickens is either on the team this year you can still get traded and or on the team next year

I've already seen it's like oh I'd rather I'd rather have Pickens he's younger he produces just

as well we're already seeing the conversation start and I feel like it's just going to be this

way for any of the getting older type elite wide receivers from the last few years not named

Jamar Chase because I mean Jamar Chase is Jamar Chase so not really the same for him but I think

guys like LAM and Jefferson who are going back to back actually in this month ADP I think there

is a very real world where they both if they don't have their type seasons lose that truly elite

dynasty asset status hit that third round of ADPs and to me that is just a precursor for

never getting back one I feel like once an asset like that really declines out of those

top two three rounds they don't go back it's so hard to regain that especially when we

have hype seasons for wide receivers incoming in 27 that's why I think it's important in 26

hopefully that makes sense um it makes sense to me I'm not always the best at articulating those

ideas so buck clean up what I what I've messed up here yeah I agree with like I don't have much to

add how with with CD I agree with it I think I think CD is interesting case I think he's a really

good NFL wide receiver I still think he's not as good as we want him to be just early in his career

like he's been he's a better flanker player than he is like you know up here extra

serial that's just a fact you look at the numbers we used to get really mad that he was used that

way early in his career and we used to blame it on DAC um it was like you know throwing it to

those like you know slow white tight ends that he loves to target or you know Marry Cooper and like

everyone would have like a 20% target share and CD really couldn't crack that and we're like man is

it like you know CDs you know DAC just throws the open guy like he's not targeting CD like we would

like and he kind of struggled when he was playing on a Mario Cooper he was playing with a really

good a Mario Cooper a Mario Cooper gets traded we see the breakout happen and now we see him you

know get at it with another good wide receiver next to him and he kind of gets alphaed a little bit

again like pickings pickings was like a top seven wide receiver in the NFL last season it's just

a fact that dude was amazing and I was lower on him you know I wasn't I was pretty high in him

actually when he got traded to Dallas but it says a player like I was lower on pickings like I

as a player I was wrong on but he did legitimately hurt CD and we saw you know kind of some of the

target share concerns with CD when he has a player like that and the other side of him and I was

you know CD was my 102 in season the last year um and I was very confident clicking that button

too you know a lot a lot went you know the right way for the Cowboys they traded Michael Parsons

their defense is already terrible they were gonna have a high p-ro and they did they were a little

bit better than we thought like they were you know a competitive team they were fine and they

really didn't like their defense I was they got Quinn and Williams you know second half of the

year and everything kind of changed for their defense Quinn and Williams obviously will be back

they um they'll draft some people and they got you know they did some trades as well so their

defense probably be fine I don't know if Dax is gonna have another season like that in him with

like you know all those past attempts I also think that is probably not long for Dallas um

everyone talks about who you know the next Matthew Safford is like who's the Matthew Safford

I guess traded late in their career wins Super Bowlm is good is like and is as good as like the

nerds think he is like you know Matthew Safford you know the non nerds kind of you know spoiled

on you know sourd on him towards the end of his career uh in Detroit because he wasn't winning

and you know he's putting up sassy don't really doing anything maybe he's not that good I think

that next Matthew Safford thing is Dax you know when he finds his Sean McVay and he runs up a

couple years like I don't really think he you know he's long for Dallas surely I think he'll be

there next year and then we'll see what happens after that um with everything going on with Jerry

and everything you know I do think Dax I don't think Dax finishes his career in Dallas like I kind

of strongly believe that as well but that's not you know a super important point here I think I think

with CD if he just has another 15 point per game season yet it's it's a big deal for him and I do

think he probably will I think I think Pickens is that good and I think they'll probably lose some

past attempts and that's gonna hurt both of them but I think you know that was a really positive

year for Pickens I think he does you know I think he is on the cowboys you know the cowboys love to

do the extension on like September 2nd you know because they love to steal the whole you know

they want the whole off season that's the Jerry thing and then they'll give the extension three

days before the season they did it with Dax the day of they traded Michael Parsons right before

the season they paid Zeke right before the season like they did it with CD2 recently

right before the year like they love to do that like they'll probably like whatever the season

probably starts September 8th like they'll probably pay you know they'll probably pick in

September 4th and this is what it is so I do think he'll be on the team but yeah I believe I

think CD and you know Jefferson I think they're in the same realm I think he's kind of said

everything they kind of said everything uh they needed to be said for real but I do think CD like

I think he's a really good wide receiver but I don't think he's a superstar wide receiver like

those top five guys in real NFL football and I think when he gets with a player that's a lot

you know that's really good too we start to see those deficiencies kind of hit a little bit and I

think we have and also like we want to talk about someone who's a catch the damn ball like CD

needed to catch the damn ball he lost three games for the cowboys single-handedly last year

because he couldn't catch like that was a big problem too and we don't care about drops when

they're that bad they're that constant we care about them we do care about them in the sense that

you have another really good wide receiver next to you maybe the quarterbacks and the stop going to

in those spots a little bit if you keep dropping the ball every time he lost some three games he lost

from the Eagles game for sure when the season started and then two other ones I will say it makes

it makes really a little bit easier for a CD lamb when the guy running next to you does have a

tendency of giving up slash being lazy so I like there is the back and forth there with the pick

inside but yeah I just feel like these are two wide receivers that people are kind of selling

right now because they're afraid of losing their peak value you have people that are buying because

well they're just who they are they're elite and I think their points for game and everything

in their production still can be they just have a lot of value to lose in 2026 and a lot of it stems

from the wide receiver class coming in 2027 Jeremiah Smith very well could and should be drafted

ahead of these two in 2027 post draft he'll be he'll be like a first on startup pictures based on

what you know people do but that's what I mean so yeah Justin Jefferson avoided that with neighbors

at least he avoided that with the other group at least a spin move merchant isn't in there anymore

well yeah he's still going to be he's still going to be pretty high up there we don't even know

if he's going to play for Alabama next year yeah I know that's that's why I don't do the

devi thing two three years out it's it's impossible right Quinn viewers was him and then

when people saw him play always like a Max Borgie when we talk about devi that's Max Borgie and

and Chubahbert they're the two I'm going to end up turning these are those are the two I think I've

might hear Debbie the two players yeah mine Sam hell like I like there's a lot of like

well he was in the MVP race at one point the NFL didn't know how to use them it's like

so that's a rattler is a good one too yeah this has been no one overall pick Dylan lobby

yeah just yeah not for it's not for me that's why I don't do it you can predict the pick value not

the player value in my opinion so yeah I just think with the draft class coming in like CDLAM did

have 16.9 expected fantasy points for game last year you finished with 14.4 and what do we say

what do we say about 14.4 points for game like it's it's not even that like who raw like it's not

as thrilling as it used to be I will say it'll be a little unfair to bring up when we talk about

CD he did have a high ankle last year yeah no I agree I agree we did have that and it did you know

that that kind of kills the season it's almost like worse than an ACL tear since you're for

running backs because like when you have an ACL tear you don't play when you have a high ankle you

play and you suck and that kind of kills everything he did he did have that you know he

dealt with that early in the year and he came back so that does use these zap a lot of your

explosiveness so he does have that excuse which I think is a pretty valid one in 2024 CDLAM

finishes the wide receiver eight and it was on 16 points for game I think he needs to hit that

to not have happened what we're talking about here and falling and just dropping out of that elite

tier you don't want to be Justin Jefferson and CDLAM as the this just Jefferson CDLAM manager heading

into their age 28 season seasons with back to back down years I just I don't want to be in that

situation so you can see the picture being painted if that does happen and what that couldn't

can and we'll do to their dynasty values they have a lot to lose they don't even have that much

to gain I feel like if they hit their their highest point they just get to stay where they are

which sounds crazy for who we are talking about but that's what it feels like to me maybe

they move back into the late round one maybe they're still getting drafted in the late round one

in your drafts maybe not any that I've seen for your Justin Jefferson's the third round pick

in one of the drafts I've seen CDLAM late two yeah so maybe they come out they ball out again I just

don't see a world where they're back to being that upper tier elite status with guys like JSN and

Puka who knows what happens with chase in a year or two but they're the two of the elite wider

receivers that I see have the rockiest road ahead of them if something goes wrong even an injury

because they'd be like well they're getting older now they're getting slowed down by injuries

you just don't want to have the back-to-back duds especially with a class like 2027 incoming so

again hopefully that made a lot of sense to you guys hopefully you guys are able to take something

from that again I'm not selling these guys just to sell this isn't a buyer cell type episode

this is just discussing a couple of players we had more on the list but there are a couple side

tangents there but you'll get that with us from time to time not a buyer cell just a conversation

about players we think are at risk with with the most to lose so I enjoyed this exercise this

was fun we should do it again sometime all that being said that's Andy Buckler I'm Tom Tipple

again thanks for listening again thanks for the support this week it has been insane crazy

stressful I'm all over the place but I'm glad that I got to once again sit down at this desk

and talk to Buck talk to you guys let us know in the comments what you think

and yes if you've noticed Buck is now in the same room as his microphone the cup has been

retired so it took a little bit to get here but we got here all the way up all the way up so poor

one out for Buck's Mike in a cup thanks for listening everybody remember that clear eyes and

for hearts can never lose and your best days are always spent tilled

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