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JVL and Andrew Egger take on a surreal White House briefing where everything is supposedly “going great”—even as TSA chaos, rising gas prices, and a widening Iran conflict tell a very different story. Plus: how JD Vance is getting boxed into a political no-win situation.
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Kia segmentation as of October 2025. Hello, everyone. This is JVL here with my
bulwark colleague Andrew Eger author of the Morning Shots newsletter and
Caroline Levitt went before the press today and spoke to the media and good news.
Andrew, everything is great. Everything is fantastic. The world is amazing. The
war is so explosions. Explosions. War. There is one problem. One problem only
Andrew and that is the TSA lines that people are being forced to endure in this
country by the Democrat Party. We're going to unpack all of Caroline Levitt's
kind of insane press conference. But I want to start with one thing that I she
said it in Slack. I sort of tapped type to you at all, Cap's Andrew. She said
the cruelty is the point which is I think a phrase made famous by Adam
Soar from the the Atlantic talking about the Trump administration and the
things that the Trump administration has done. For instance, feeding USAID into
the woodchipper, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of poor
people, the ice enforcement which targets like children going to schools and
results in the gunning down of American citizens on the streets and the
sending of people to gulags in El Salvador. But here she was what's the term for
this Andrew when somebody goes and reclaims a word that was originally used as a
slur to attack them. I don't know if you have a specific term in mind. I usually
think of this as like the your rules move when it's being deployed by in this sort
of cynical way by people in in MAGA world. You know, a lot of times it's it's
you know accusations of racism or fascism or there you know that any one of those
things. This is the first time I can remember seeing an actual Trump
Trump official evoke this particular phrase which was obviously foolish for
all the obvious reasons as well as just sort of like a strange deep cut. Okay.
Like other guy this is this goes back to the first term, right? I mean Adam
Sir, where it was was talking about this in like maybe even in a campaign. I think
talking about maybe the deportation of the family separation policy and just
the rally. The rhetoric at the rallies and you know mocking you know, a disabled
reporter like the really early stuff when Carolyn led it was like 14 years old.
I'm so it's kind of amazing that she that that the she even has access to the
deep lore in that way. But what's funny is that she she deploys it when talking
about TSA lines for the Democrats in Congress. The cruelty of this shutdown is
the point nearly 500 TSA officers have quit since the Democrats shut down
began. President Trump to alleviate this pressure made the decision to send
some of our amazing ice agents to help alleviate that stress and address the
long wait times. Her position seems to be that the Democrat party she never misses
an opportunity to say that that they have purposely done this to make TSA
lines worse. And I have to say if you saw the tweet going around today of Bill
Barr in the normal TSA line, not even the TSA preaches the North, sit in the
air. It looks so cruel such hardship. The other part of the thing in addition
to sort of like the consumer difficulties is the is the paychecks for the
agents themselves, right? Which is like the cause of the cause of the the
snarled traffic there. There are a lot of people who are not showing up. Well,
they're not getting paid. There are some agents who are quitting. And obviously
we're going to we're going to talk about all of this. But the bizarre split
screen of Carolyn Levitt still trying to carry out the administration's line
here that this is all the Democrats fault. Obviously that's just what you do
in a shutdown. You blame the other side. But it has been pretty substantially
undercut by many things the president himself has been saying. And other
Republicans have been saying. I mean, like the Republicans in the Senate and
the Democrats in the Senate have reached a deal to reopen all of the parts of
the of the Department of Homeland Security, except for ICE that which would
get, you know, most obviously, which would get TSA back to work. They've they
keep saying this. They keep saying, you know, we've got it. The deals right
there. We just kind of need the president to buy in. And the president keeps
going out in public and saying, ah, you know, that that deal's not going to
really work for me. I'm sure we're going to talk about all that stuff. But it's
just it's strange. I mean, it's strange to see Carolyn Levitt come out to the
podium for the first time in a number of days and just sort of act as though all
of the developments we have gotten in this story had just just never never
actually took place. And it's still just purely the Democrats fault that all
this stuff has happened. It's amazing. So let's let's let's back up. Let's
talk about Iran first. So she talked about how great the war is going. That
I mean, I know that before this war began, the Iranian Navy was the talk of
the town. All anybody ever did was talk about the Iranian Navy. And she has made
the point that we have done to the Iranian Navy. What I don't even know. She
had some historical pair of, you know, no Navy since 1342 has ever been so
decimated the way we have decimated the Iranian Navy. I mean, good for us,
I guess she had a lot of things to say about Iran, which were sort of
interesting. And I don't know where you want to go first. You want to talk about
JD Vance first and his his role. Do you want to talk about her her suggestion
that actually the negotiations are ongoing and they're real serious. They're
happening right now. What do you want to talk about how regime change is
mission accomplished? We have actually had regime change in Iran.
They're all great. Let me just take one second with with the thing you
started with there with the destruction of the Iranian Navy. The fastest three
week destruction of any Navy, as you said, I think I think she said since World
War II or something like that was just kind of this amazing thing. I mean,
everyone all along has known that when you stack up the military of the United
States of America against the military of Iran, it's not really a fair fight.
It's not any fight at all actually. It's been very obvious since the very
first bombing raids that we were going to have like total military supremacy
when it came to just our ability to put, you know, ordinance on targets,
right? And that was going to be pretty easy for us. And everybody acknowledged
that like immediately. And yet, as all these other problems have piled up,
you cannot see any White House person come to any podium ever without them
them opening things up with a lengthy diatribe about how unfair it is that
nobody will acknowledge this point that everyone doesn't target all along.
Yes, it's like, don't you guys realize? Don't you don't you see how how much
destruction we're wreaking and how good the fight is and how and how, you know,
how how effortless it is to project American power. And what's interesting is I
had kind of thought that this was only like a like kind of bootbait for Baba
all along that this was just purely sort of like a their PR strategy is like,
don't look at the economic consequences. Don't look at, you know, the
Strait of Hormuz or the price of oil or anything. Just look at these fun
little like sizzle real videos of our guys like drone striking things. Isn't
that great? Isn't that awesome? Don't you love that? And I thought that was
like an outside PR messaging strategy. And then today, interestingly enough,
we got some reporting this morning that it actually is not just just bootbait
for Baba out there. It is also bootbait for Baba in the Oval Office that Donald
Trump on a kind of daily basis is getting his war briefings. And they are
featuring two minute sizzle reels of all the targets that were hit the day
before in exactly the same way. And that is like crucial to Donald Trump's
own personal information diet of how this conflict is going. So I just wanted
to get that out there. I mean, I guess they're just going to keep doing it
because it is the only like exciting cool good fact for America. Is that,
yeah, I guess I mean, I like that we can hit our targets without suffering a
lot of, you know, direct military pain. That's a good thing. It's nice to be
in that situation militarily. You know, that's that's nice. But it's not
really the main thing right now. And I think that the fact that they keep
redirecting to it is pretty good. You know, okay, sidebar, do you think they
are giving him unproduced clips? Because those things come, they're
silent. And the resolution on them isn't great. Where do you think they're
adding a soundtrack and a fully mix? So like with the sound of explosions
layered into it? And like some thumping club music? Because I got to see, I
think if they just showed like the normal like plain vanilla gun cam, sir, sir,
here's a, here's a 5,000 pound bomb hitting a radar site. So I think that he
probably wouldn't be able to stay engaged. It is not as much fun. I would
imagine. I mean, if you're going only by the sizzle real clips that they're
putting out on the internet, it's not only like the club beat and the sound of
the explosions, it is also, you know, interspersed clips of like NFL
debate max, like knocking out of a wide receiver is going up for the ball.
Yeah, blowed up. Yeah, so who knows who knows how much, how much of that you
need to keep in front of the president of the United States to be like, hey, man,
there's a war here's a house going, but, but yes, apparently a more than you
would hope for. How much more than you would hope for is unclear, but it's more
than than you should, more than the president should need. How about we put it
that way? Right. So we are winning very hard. We are also desperate to
negotiate. And the White House is insisting that despite what the Iranians have
said. So, so we had leaked that there was a 15 point plan that the president
had presented to the Iranians through intermediaries. I don't know if this is
if you've read art of the deal, but I'm pretty sure that make the first offer
is not art of the deal. Pretty sure that in like the whole history of
negotiations, you're supposed to not make the, if Jack Donogay taught me anything
from 30 rock, it's the tree ought to be quiet, use the power of silence.
So we, we seem to have presented a 15 point plan to Iran through Pakistani
intermediaries. This, this first offer was actually pretty good for Iran anyway,
but they have subsequently rejected it. And Carolyn leave it insisted. No, no, no,
no, we're, we're having ongoing talks still talking within the past few
hours, Iranian state TV has said that Iran has rejected the US's 15 point
plan to end the war. What's the White House's response to that? And have these
talks get a better? They have not talks continue. They are productive as the
president said on Monday, very productive negotiations. Is that a sign that
you're winning? It's not great. It's not a great sign you're winning. The way
that she always messages these things to is, I mean, she has kind of the same
move for, for pretty much any situation that involves sort of like like the
negotiations with with anybody overseas, where she kind of like looks at the
reporter who asks about it and is like, like we would clue you in, like we would
tell you anything about what's going on. And there's, there's, there's sort of
this, this sort of like contempt to it. And obviously the president does this
as well.
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It's one of these sorts of things that I think you could argue played in
their favor in a different political time. I just think back to this time last
year when they were kind of in the full flower of their first all out of
assault on American institutions. They were just trying to sideline the press
and their popularity wasn't great, but there's a lot better than it is now.
And they were charging forward, forward, forward. And they were striking
this posture from a position of domestic strength. And now it's so much the
opposite. The bottom has fallen out of their support. They're shedding members
of their coalition left and right. Obviously they have no plan for how to extract
themselves from this conflict that they find themselves in. And yet there's
no other playbook from in terms of messaging to the press. I mean, like you
could imagine a different White House that would acknowledge that there are some
real American concerns about how the negotiations are going, right? The price
of oil has gone berserk. We were not in great economic straits before, but right
now it is looking really, really bad for everybody, for everybody all over the
place. We're embroiled in a Middle Eastern war that nobody signed up for, that
Congress never voted to authorize. And that the second we got in there, Donald
Trump, knowing that there was no domestic appetite for this, you know, the
bombs had barely even begun to fall before these people were like, don't worry,
don't worry, this is like a little blip. It's a tiny little thing. We're in
we're out. It's going to be no problem at all. It's going to be great. And yet
here we are weeks and weeks along. And when the when this spokespeople of the
administration come up to the podium and you ask, hey, we've been hearing some
concerning stuff about these negotiations. How are those going, by the way? And
she and the fact that they say you were you would come into this room and you
would dare ask us how the negotiations are going. I mean, like it's I just don't
think it flies. I'm sorry. I don't think there are that many people out there
who see that and they're like, you know what, Carolyn, that sounds great. I'm
actually incredibly reassured by this. Some some interesting things from this part
of the press conference. She she said this is not a war. It is a short term
combat operation short term and getting longer. I don't know. She said that
he's doing this for the young people. Speak a lot to young voters, many of them
voted for President Trump for the first time in 2024. You know, hoping to have
no more wars and to have lower prices now with a war taking place and with gas
prices going up. Here's what President Trump's message would be to those voters
who kind of swung into his coalition in 2024. But maybe don't feel the
administration is going as they expect it. President Trump is doing this for
you. He's doing this for young people so that we are no longer threatened by
our rogue terrorist regime in the Middle East. That seeks to kill the brave
men and women who serve in our country in the Middle East. Many of them, young
people themselves, young men and women who who serve this country honorably
in uniform and have been threatened killed and maimed by the rogue, Iranian
terrorist regime for 47 years. President Trump finally had the courage to step
up and do what's right by our national security, our homeland security.
She's like, wow, that's amazing. He's doing it for the young people.
Do you think the young people, the young, I mean, I part of me, it has like the
Steve Buscemi clip in this, you know, hello, young people.
So that that was the guy he was in the new media seat this morning.
You got the first question. The briefing was Gabe Fleischer, who's like a kid
reporter with like a journalistic pedigree and now he's there in the new media
seat. So he has, he's, he's a pretty good egg in, in my, in my sort of
limited exposure to him. And it's a good question, right? I mean, like it is,
it is actually the case. And we've seen this in a lot of public polling that,
that young men in particular were a really big part of the Trump coalition in
2024, extremely important to his victory spent all of last year kind of being
like, oh gosh, I don't know about all this. And in particular, we knew from
the polling were worried even last year that that Trump was far more focused on
foreign entanglements than they had expected him to be than he had carried
himself as though he were going to act when he was on the campaign trail.
And that was last year. That was just, you know, when we were doing limited
strikes on Iran's nuclear nuclear program. And when we were going into Venezuela,
and now we have opened up this gigantic new can of worms in terms of the
possibility of another long military entanglement over there. You know, we
have, you know, army special operations units currently in transit to the
golf to just give Trump a few more, you know, arrows in his quiver, a little bit
more flexibility in how he, in how he approaches these negotiations. So the
question is, this isn't what young men were promised from the, you know, no more
wars, pro-peace presidents, like what gives? And yes, the answer, as you just
mentioned, utterly unsatisfying, they are, they are, they have no new news.
They have nothing to say to these people that were so important in them before
and are abandoning them in droves.
So I guess the couple of questions here then to follow up.
First of all, does it look like he's trying to wriggle out? So there was a
question about regime change. And Carolyn Leavitt's position seemed to be that
yes, we did regime change. I don't know that she knows what the word
regime means. Or maybe she is trying to lawyer it out. Like, you know,
what depends on what the definition of is is or what the meaning of is is.
Like, there is a different person who is the head of the Islamic Republic,
but it is still the Islamic Republic. It's not a new form of government.
And her position seems to be with, you know, we did it. We got our president
said he wanted regime change and we did it. Is that trying to set the, like,
walk back his, because he had said on like day four, I think of the war or something
in the first week, you know, oh, yeah, you know, we have to have new leadership.
And I have to help pick the leader. He does seem to have backed off of that
entirely. So this seems to be her way of saying, no, we didn't back off.
We did it. Yes, we won. Yeah. And she's channeling the president himself
as she's, as she's doing this, right? I mean, he, he got up in the
Oval Office yesterday. We have really regime change. You know,
this is a change in the regime. Because the leaders are all very different
than the ones that we started off with that created all those problems.
So like, he is, he's even got an in for one different name.
Come any, right? Oh, yeah. Yeah. I mean, I, I do think, and this is just,
let me go off on a bit of a speculative jag here. I do wonder how much of this
is the fact that they are actually locked into a little bit of ambiguity here
because it's not American bombing that has been actually targeting the regime
officials. It's been, you know, it's been the Israelis who are, who are
continuing to, you know, pulverize more and more and more of the actual, like,
upper structures of the remaining, you know, Iranian regime.
And so like, you could imagine a situation where like Donald Trump doesn't
want to say, you know, we're good. Actually, like, we now have the set of
leaders that we want. If then, you know, the next day we're all going to
wake up to a headline that Israel has killed yet another, you know,
remaining top regime leader, that could cause some, some interesting
friction. Again, I don't know if that's the case. I just, that's, that's been
one interesting sort of like a asymmetry in Israel and America's war aims
that we've seen over the last couple of weeks. But of course, the other, the
other element of it is just, you know, this weird kind of art of the deal
stuff where, where, where Trump continues to say, like, they're on the precipice
of agreeing to everything we want. And don't worry, we're going to be done
in two days. And that obviously requires a certain amount of like underpinning
assumptions about the people who are making those decisions over there,
even though every bit of reporting that's actually sourced to the Iranian
leaders is, is essentially the biggest, most maximalist pile of demands you could
ever expect. I mean, there was reporting in the Wall Street Journal just this
morning that's like, Iran is sort of coming up to our intermediaries at the
negotiating table and basically saying, all right, we need all Americans out of
the Gulf region. We need reparations paid. We need to be able to charge a toll
in the straightforward moves from here until judgment day from now on. We've
never done before. But that's the price to reopen it. And we need security
guarantees from America that America and Israel will never ever, you know, come
attack us again. And we need to be able to keep all the ballistic missiles that
we currently have. I mean, like, there is no indication from that public
reporting that there is that this is anything close to the truth. And
obviously, you know, that's that could just as easily be bombast and and
smoke and mirrors as anything that the White House is saying. But I think the
bottom line is that none of these statements from any of these people on any of
these sides are actually giving us any sort of illumination into what the
actual kind of pressure points are when it comes to this negotiation. And when
you are sweeping the rhetoric aside and just looking at the behavior, as you
just mentioned a minute ago, it is America that continues to basically say,
don't worry, any minute now will be done. We're gonna get out of their hair. You
don't need to worry. And it's Iran that's basically saying, we will fight this
war for a thousand years. And the global economy will suffer. And that's just
okay with us. So, you know, that's that's the showing part of it all.
So the most cany thing the Iranians have done in the last 24 hours seems to be
floating the idea that actually they're not going to deal with Jared, just
Jared and and Wiccoth anymore. They want JD Vance to be the negotiator and the
mediator, which I'm sorry, even if it's just trolling is fantastic. Do you
have thoughts on putting JD Vance in charge of negotiating a treaty for the
war? He didn't want that he can't support, but also can't run away from it.
It's a little bit like when Joe Biden, you know, four years ago, dumped the
border situation on Kamala Harris where she was like, here, this I'm gonna put
this in my vice president's portfolio. You know, like she doesn't have a, she
doesn't have enough going on. I'm gonna, I'm gonna put, you know, the single most
politically toxic, you know, issue that I have. I'm gonna say that's hers.
That'll probably never come back to bite us in any political way whatsoever.
It's obviously a little different since it's Iran. I mean, like who knew who knew
that Iran was was so online that they would be able to sort of like tweak the
vice president in this way. But that's just in terms of JD's whole role in the
war. I have kind of seen that as sort of like a parallel thing. He wants to be
able to run in 2028. It is not clear what outcome of this war facilitates that
in the slightest. It basically, no matter what, he's gonna be running sort of
in spite of everything that's going on right now. And, and Iran apparently sees
bit to put, to, to ratchet up the pressure on him in this way. And for him, he
needs their to not be ground troops. And he needs it over sooner, like yesterday.
Right. Is that, is that am I right to think? The longer it goes on, the worse it is
for JD. The longer it goes on, the more all of these guys who are like
supposedly big anti-war thinkers, you know, the more they, they box themselves in
because they need to draw, you know, brighter and brighter red lines. And you've
seen this like from, from, I don't know, like the president of the Heritage
Foundation, Kevin Roberts and things like that, where, where they are, they are
required to split hairs. And the fact that we have gotten embroiled in this war
with Iran, they have to say, well, you know, this wasn't really like, this wasn't
the kind of, the kind of, you know, regime change war that we spent the last
several years insisting was like the single worst thing you could do as an
American political leader, like bar none, because the difference is those bad
kinds of wars had boots on the ground, right? But now maybe we're going to get
those boots on the ground. And it's not like three years ago statements from
Kevin Roberts and JD Vance and all those people. It's like two weeks ago
statements. So, so, you know, JD can't even really do that, which is part of why he
has completely vanished from the limelight. I mean, it would be, you know, Donald
Trump doesn't want JD burnishing JD's future political prospects by boxing
and rhetorically the behavior of him and his administration right now. So, it's a
real problem. I mean, JD has, there's a reason why he has suddenly finally broken
his internet habit. It would be sort of canny for Trump to force JD to carry
this water, wouldn't it? I mean, that way, if you're, if you're at all concerned
about JD going off the reservation, making him eat this, that's not bad,
right? Or is this just me being too helpful? Now, I can see that I just think, I
think Trump has so much contempt for all of the people in his immediate orbit. I'm
not even the 100% sure it occurs to him. Like, you know, like Adolf Hitler, you
used to spend a lot of time playing his different vice Roy's off one another so
that they would never, you know, form a pack and say he was far from the only one to do
this. It's kind of standard authoritarian behavior. I, it's never been super
obvious to me that Trump has those like that particular collection of neurons
that it even like occurs to him that he would get stabbed in the back. Because I
just, I really do think that he, he probably correctly believes that these are all
just sort of feckless totes and they don't have it in them. But, but, but, you know,
there's probably a universe in which, in which, you know, a version of Trump would,
would try to do that and would be correct to try to do that. So who knows? Maybe, maybe,
maybe I'm misreading the big guy, but that, that's kind of how I have seen him.
It's funny. You mentioned Hitler because I was thinking about the bunker scene from
downfall when Caroline said she used a phrase which had clearly been workshopped
to talk about gas prices. She talked about a temporary short-term fluctuation
in gas prices. As for the temporary short-term fluctuation in gas prices, the president has said,
once these combat operations are over, this administration is going to continue to unleash
American energy dominance. I really, I just imagined, you know, her and Miller and
all them down, you know, just step, well, what are we going to, how are we going to, what are we
going to call this? So wait, well, it's temporary, obviously, and, you know, and it's short-term,
and it's a fluctuation. You know, it goes up, it goes down.
Yeah, which way is it fluctuating? I'm, I'm, I'm eager to know. I'm eager to find out.
That's kind of fun. Do you think that works? Nothing works. There's no way to spend gas. I mean,
like that's, what did we, what did we spend all of Biden learning is like, you just, you can't
spend your way out of it, you know, the, the, the number on the pump goes up and you suffer
politically. And it wasn't just Biden. It was everybody all around the world, right? It was, you
know, every, every world leader coming out of post-COVID inflation through the bums out,
including Americans, they threw out Joe Biden, and the, the, the, the, the gas prices stuff
was a big reason why. And even that was like, not exactly, you know, there, there were like, maybe
small ways in which Biden's energy policy had like, you know, secondary order effects on,
on the gas prices. But like, it wasn't like this. It wasn't like, you know, Joe Biden went and,
and stuck a cork in key energy, you know, like through, through ways around the world and the
way that Donald Trump has done right now. So I mean, anyway, they slice it. They are really,
really cooked on this stuff unless it goes back to normal fast. And, and there's just no indication
that even if they were to, you know, strike some kind of deal tomorrow, that that is what would happen.
So it's hard to blame Carol and Levitt, you know, she's got to go up to the podium and say something,
and it's not like there's any other thing that she could have said that would have worked better.
But, but, but I'm not convinced that this was, this was necessarily even the best option. That's
a, that's a good phrase, though. We should, we should keep that one in the work bank.
All right. Anything else? Any other dealers choice here for you from the, from the show?
No, I don't know. I, I, I used to think last year, I was pretty much of the opinion that Carol
and Lev was actually pretty good at this job. She, you know, she was, she was, she, she's a good press
secretary for Donald Trump from a position of strength. She's good at twisting the knife. She's
good at deflecting with a laugh. You know, she's, she's good at hitting her marks and, and showing
contempt for the press and all those things that, like, the White House really values and that the
megabase really values. It is not necessarily clear to me that she has any other speed. It's not
really clear to me that if the White House wants to make up any political ground and wants to
win anybody back between now and the midterms that she has a single tool in her rhetorical arsenal
that is conducive to that. But neither do any of the rest of them. This is not an administration that
is a big on introspection or big on, you know, what's the median voter have to say or think about
all of this? So I'm, I, I don't know, I guess they'll just keep trotting her out there. You know,
I'm more power to you, Caroline. Fantastic. Well, we'll get more. Donald Trump himself is going to
keep speaking. We're going to keep bombing and exploding with our maximum alpha toughness. Can't wait.
The meantime, hit like, hit subscribe. Follow the channel. Stay with us at the bulwark. We'll be back
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