Keo & Zels Show: EP 161 – Boks beware, the real All Blacks are coming

0:00It's Alzi. Yes sir, thanks for coming out from the HPC in Belville via DHL Stadium in Cape Town via Bloberg through the traffic to talk analytics, statistics, data. I need you to educate me, to educate all our loyal fans, because they've said we want more analysis from Zalzi, who has sent us? I did. Okay. So I've created a piece, thanks to the URC's website called Stats. And the headline on keo.ca.z and it's not like I like to say my name, it's what the is called. Who named that? Yes, it was me. Bulls finish storm is create and Glasgow lead.

1:00And after 13 rounds, that is the state of play. Bear in mind the bulls are in the top eight, just, what are you saying like that? Because they just made the top. They're just broken the top eight. Oh my god, where have you been for that? I don't know, I just don't understand how you're thinking there, mate. I know that you've been at the HPC head down in the crunchy numbers, but the bulls have played as well. And you actually beat them. We were there. No worries. Top of the table, 50 points, 13 matches, 10 wins, more bonus points on the storm is second. People forget storm is a second, 10 from 13, 46 points. They're best ever start in the history of the tournament, but people think there's something wrong in Cape Town. But the stats are very, very different. So if you do go on to the blog, you will see a breakdown of that and a link back to the, like every stat that there is for player. And four teams after 13 rounds of the United rugby Championship. But I was going to run through a few cells and then I just want you to have the floor mate. Have it.

2:00Because the podcast is about two people. Okay. I love it. Yes. You know, I can't have a cold woodcut anymore. I want to do this. So in a nutshell, and when I phoned you and I said, listen, I've got these stats telling me. No, I can't. So just contextualize for me, I take in the two league leaders and their stats are very different in terms of how they've got to their 46 and 50 points. And what does one read into it? If you're a lay supporter and not necessarily, you switch on the telly on the Saturday, you watch, you read a couple of articles, you're not. And the job doesn't allow for you to be crunchy numbers, doing data, becoming an expert via artificial intelligence. What is the summary of a Glasgow season? And then the stormers. After 13 rounds in our state secrets, in terms of how they've been playing and kind of

3:03where their impact is or vulnerabilities and kind of the variances. Yeah. So I think what you have to remember around stats is probably like the perception about rugby, especially amongst fans and in the school we've seen is the object of the game is to score tries. And I think scoring tries is important because you get five points for it and potentially seven. So obviously that is important. But I wouldn't say scoring tries is the objective in rugby and especially in the pro level. So what's interesting to me is if you look at the log, you've got Glasgow worries, or one, stormers are two. And if you look at the points for column, those two teams are there and there about in terms of points scored, right? They're top five teams for point scored. And if you look at the points difference, points scored and points conceded, they are one and two, right? But the takeaway there is not that they've scored more, or they have scored more points

4:04in their opponents, but the takeaway there is not the attack, it's the defense. Those teams are number one and two in the comp for defense. So stopping your opponents from scoring tries. If you were a business person and you knew nothing about rugby and all you got when you bought a franchise was this table. The thing to take away from it is that defense is prescriptive in terms of whether you win or lose. Your ability to limit your opponent's scoring, they're output in that metric, determines whether you're successful or not successful. So you also have to be able to score points yourself. But if you look at the points for column, there are teams like the Lions, for example, who scored the most points in the URC and they're in seventh place. And if you look at a team like the Bulls, they're up there. Also top five, they're in eighth place for points scored. And the Lions are plus 20 in points difference, so their defense hasn't come to the party. And the Bulls are plus 50 in points difference, their defense at times of season hasn't come to the party. So the key to the success is not in the points output, it's in limiting the points input.

5:10How hard is that for teams to manage in this modern new age game where everyone's trying to take the scrum away, everyone's trying to take the line out of way, everyone's basically wants to turn it into six touch, especially in Australia and to a degree in New Zealand. You know, quite Cooper coming out and saying, you've got to play quickly, you've got to get that person a chance to play and speed up the game, but why do we need the game to be spayed up when it's been great for over 100 years in terms of the mini contest and the battles. And that is not an acknowledgement of the power and the impact and the influence of defense, which is an incredible skill and then leads to transition. So a team that can defend well and transition well is probably the most complete team if they've got a good set piece and a goal kicker in rugby. So it's defense and transitions because the bulls have scored 54 tries the most, but the defense was awful in the beginning of the season or one they scored their lead one.

6:13Harder coaches not buy into this narrative generally of, we've got to score a lot of tries and potentially lose 40, 36, they win 23, 17 in a very good game of rugby. And then appease the owners and the marketers who say, well, who's going to come watch this? Well, yeah, that's why I think you can be very successful in rugby as a money ball guy because there's a large chunk of the game that lives in a fantasy world about what is the way to play to be successful and there's a large, a critical mass of people who run rugby I think are out of touch with what the game actually is or they know what the game actually is and they're resented for that and they're trying to change it. To me, it's hilarious that after 30 years of trying to tweak the game to be basketball, if you give me a top five defense and a top five scrum, we'll be more successful than most of the teams in the league and those are the foundations of success. So I think oftentimes coaches find themselves in a situation where a chunk of the players

7:14that are at the disposal come from schools where that ideology around rugby is ingrained in their psyche. So it's quite tricky to break that. Well, if you go back and the ultimate test of anything is to win the rugby World Cup Final. It's bigger than a club final, it's bigger than a rugby championship, six nations finale, and 80% of rugby World Cup finals were one on defense, defense and a kicker. So no matter how successful a team has been, how many tries they scored in the four years between World Cup cycles, when it comes to a final, the box 1211, four penalties, defense heroically. Even the big win against England in the final in 2019 was born out of heroic defense that five minute period before half time, the five minutes after half time, and when they basically went two scores ahead with kicks from Andre Pollard, those two magical tries from a Pimpy and Chessland Colby, it's it's invariably one off the boot, the

8:20biggest games, and it's invariably one when you look at the tackle stats and the kind of dominant tackles. How do you kind of as a data specialist, a trained specialist get that message across that it's not a crime to kick and it's not a crime to tackle, and from that transition tries come and tries World Cup. So these been the balls have scored the most tries, storm is on eighth place, but the differential is a one five pointer if that over a balance of period. It's where is the state of the game where, you know, we saw that balls game 1318, it was over a repose, it was a thriller, yeah. People were in thrull bite, 78th minute try to win it, isn't that the essence of rugby and this wanted to just to and everything to barbarians type, hollum blow trots is carnival 3836s, isn't with the game should be. Yeah, so I think rugby has just forgotten where it came from.

9:22I think that's the underlying issue, and I think it's on your address that you're always going to be fighting against this narrative, because back in the day when rugby first arrived in South Africa, I assume, they didn't sell tickets to games, and I don't think people came to see sidesteps, there wasn't like the marketing campaign about how guys can make you miss in these offloads, people were invested in 18 being successful against another team, it was one village versus the other village, that's how all these ancient sports started. I don't even can't remember the name of it, but that Italian sport where there's a ball and this village tries to move the ball from one place to the opposition village or whatever it is, they try and get the ball and take it back to their vulnerable hard works, but it's that primal and that's where sport comes from, nobody decided that we're going to build arenas and create a game out of thin air and entice people to come there because the beers will be cheap, people wanted to see the contest because it was relevance in the result, my village, be jaw village, that was the point of it. And so I think rugby has gone on a large detour over the years to try and bring in fans

10:25who are not rugby people, people who may be drawn by the spectacle of it, the fireworks, the music in the stadium, I don't know, and those fans commercially are important, but they're not at the heart of it because what will happen is at some point in the future, somebody will do something amazing and those fans who are not rugby people will be drawn away to that other event and they'll go and watch that instead where real rugby people know are vested in the spring box beating England, that okay whether it's 3-0 or 53-0, they're going to pitch up at the game season-in and season-out and those are the people you've got to appeal to. So, winning is the basis of sustained success in every pro sport because like winning you don't have sustained success, doesn't mean there aren't examples in recent history of teams that are semi-contenders and through marketing have great commercial value, but I don't think that's a sustained model for success. If you look at, I think last year when we were at Pizzula and you did a talk and some

11:26guys off the floor were talking about scuba rugby, carry cup and why can't the box play like that? I mean you were quite, I think you crashed a bit of romance there in that evening, telling them what scuba rugby was, I mean you want to just kind of revisit that. Yeah, something scuba rugby is amateur and so you can't compare it to professional rugby, it's not the same thing, you're dealing with kids and you're dealing with a great variance in ability between the worst and best player on the field that is not replicated at the pro level and the whole point of schoolboy sports is to participate and to compete and to try and win, but the bottom line is not winning at the amateur level, there are secondary and tertiary objectives that are close. At the pro level the bottom line is did you win or did you lose, it's not about participating and I think rugby has a really, pro rugby has a really hard time dealing with that sort of assertion. So it is very different at those levels, we're at high school, if you're the biggest

12:28bloke you get game line every time you carry the ball, the next level up there's a bloke called Levi Douglas or Audrey Smith who's going to tackle you backwards every time you touch it. It's a whole different game and it becomes more technical because of that. So it is tricky to compare those two things, I did a little research project on the various pro leagues in the world and we looked at kick volume by month and so when the sports win the leagues kick off, it's autumn and the kick volume is relatively low and then you get to the winter part of the season and the kick volume goes up and then you get to the sort of end of winter, we're moving into spring now in the north and then the kick volume goes down and then as you hit the playoffs the kick volume goes through the roof again. Now that playoff period is close to summer and the only reason the kick volume goes up is because those teams have decided that winning is the only objective, you have to win or you go home. Now the point that I'm trying to make is if everybody knows that kick volume is related

13:31to winning, why wouldn't you do that every single week weekend and why do you have to have this circular conversation about should we carry the ball, should we kick the ball, if you dare to win as a professional which is your job, surely that's what you have to do. So I go back to the late Basel Bay, iconic at Bishops, I just renowned for Bishops playing with no numbers on the back and they basically ran that ball from everywhere. The Pulse schools would know that, so if that a good pack of good defense, they could beat Bishops because I knew there was not going to be much kick in, they weren't going to take kicks for Pulse so you could also just kind of be infringed as much as you wanted. People loved watching Bishops play back in the day, especially the Herschel Gibbs type euro, okay? One of the great schoolboy flasks. Basel Bay then was, the call was, why doesn't Basel Bay coach professionally? And eventually he said, okay, I'm in and he went to Northern Freestate, the Griffins and it was a disaster. He went there with limited players and he lost games by more than a hundred points in the Curry Cup, trying to play the Bishops way there.

14:34And I think that was for me the most noticeable thing of the philosophy at schoolboy level which is about skills, developing skills because you can't teach that once the guy gets into a professional rugby, it's so different to what you experience in professional leagues. And then it brings me back to the stormers this season, you've been a huge exponent throughout when you were a journalist, when you're running essay rugby magazines, the editor, on the show, it's not that you antitrize, it's like you're just prologic in terms of what you just said. And there's been a huge shift in the stormers over balance this season in their approach, they're second on most kicks and very good in what they've retained as well. And it's the best season they've ever had in the URC, 10 from 13. We're 10 from 18 normally gets you into the playoffs in the URC. People don't realise that they haven't necessarily been sexy but they've been successful, why are people so opposed to that? It's just, it boggles my brain as well.

15:35I think a lot of the criticism comes from the weekend warrior fan, who knows, they're going to do the Raw, do something amazing, do a sum of salt, entertain, I think there's a lot of that. So I think the casual fan is just like show me some highlights that impress me, right? I think for the diehard fan, and you know you're a diehard fan with a, in a game against the Bulls, if you're happy with victory by any means, you're a diehard fan. If you need a team, if you need the stormers to excite you and potentially lose and you'll be happy with that against the Bulls, then maybe you're not a diehard fan. But I think, when it comes to the kicking game, it's, I don't want to kick the ball, you know, it's not that I have some, I'm not more in a state, I'm not this fantastic kicker of the ball and I've always thought that that's the, I just know by looking at the numbers that that helps in terms of your ability to succeed. Now having said that, Glasgow warrior is the top of the log and they've kicked the second least in the competition and that is very, very rare. But Glasgow warriors may be second least in kick volume, but they're in other kick metrics

16:40that are exceedingly good as well. So what Glasgow do really well is that understand the chronology of the game, in the sense that you have to do, it's like a book. You have to have chapter one, then chapter two, then chapter three. You can't start at the end of the book, you know, it's like a love story. Let's take Titanic. If that movie started with Leo slipping off the door and falling under the water and drowning, I don't think it would have been a tear jerker. But the reason that everybody was invested in that moment at the end of the movie is because of what came before. You've got to know who Leo was in the movie, who Kate was in the movie. It was a connection to those people, right? So you have to build that connection, the same thing in rugby. You have to start with your fundamentals. You have to have a scrum and a line up. You have to have defense. There are other pieces to this puzzle. But if you get those things right, your attack will flourish. If you start, we are going to attack first, really attack minded, and then try and add in those fundamentals later, it can go horribly wrong and blip in your face. So I think what Glasgow does exceptionally well is defend.

17:43And the stormers do that as well, second in the comp for that. So in terms of the quality of their defense, those two teams are right up there. And when you defend well, you create opportunities to score from transition. And when you're attacked from transition, you're attacking against teams whose defense is not prepped to stop you to the same level as if you try and knock the front door down. So I think there's an order to success in rugby. I never knew you were such a big fan of Titanic and Cameron and can you do that? What is it? I'm flying. What did she say? I don't remember, mate. You seem to remember that. You seem to remember that. Aliens, mate. Some great movies. You seem to remember the chapters, yeah. I love that. That's like a soft side to you. There's hardly no tries or kick kind of guy. I just want to win. I just want to win. So did Leo and you see where he ended. That is true, mate. He had a great friend. You went down with a great friend. Handing on to Iceberg wasn't it or something like that.

18:44He wasn't hanging on to an Iceberg. But Iceberg was the winner. Like he was adding on to it. If you can hang on to the Iceberg, he'd still be alive. Looking at, and I just want you to unpack this a little bit. And then kind of just give him an explanation. So we've got points. We've got defense in that. This is a relevant stat. Entries into the opposition 22. And the stormers are ranked second after 13 rounds, 150. Yet their tri-conversion is eighth in the tournament. Is there a direct correlation to that? Or is that just America's that we know a lot of the stormers tries to come from translations or from a counterattack? Or what do you read into that? And forget that it's the stormers. So I don't want to kind of put you in a spot or you feel that you kind of, no one's going to talk to you when you get back to the HPC. So say it's any team that has got the second most, 150. But the eighth on the tri-scoring, what would you as just attributed to that as a data specialist?

19:45So I think obviously if you can convert every time you enter the 22, you're going to be a very, very difficult team to beat because every opportunity you get, you convert it into points. But I will say a team like Glasgow are first for entries into the 22 and they're ranked seventh for points per entry. So how many, your sort of, your conversion rate there is irrelevant. I'm not saying it's not relevant, but it can be skewed by other factors. So for example, if you're a team like the Lions who rank first for points per entry, when you get penalties in that zone, you kick them. So there's your three points. So on average, you're converting an entry penalty into three points. And Christmas is obviously key to that. Whereas if you're a team that spoons kickable opportunities in that area and chases more tries, your conversion rate's going to go down, your percentage of conversions is going to go down. But that doesn't mean you're not successful because perhaps you go for those line-up tries, you don't convert them, but you apply pressure on another team.

20:45They get a yellow card. And so you're playing the game against fewer players and you're scoring from other parts of the field. Maybe your long-range tries goes up, etc. So there are a lot of moving parts to it. The bottom line is you want to have, you want to be number one for entries and number one for conversions. There isn't a team in the competition. No, no, no, we don't want to do that. But decisions you make in other facets of the game are going to influence what your numbers, what your outputs are in those departments. So I think, like I say, Glasgow is seventh for points per entry, even though they have the most entries, and then the lines are first for points per entry. And I think they're sixth for volume of entries. So with IQs in the word balance, you're trying to be as effective as you can then. As a data specialist, we had this chat a couple of days ago. And I was asking you, just kind of break down the role in terms of analysts and data and videos and exactly how much footage you have to watch. And you said, no, you are following trends, you're following data. And that's the kind of the role that maybe has been lacking generally in rugby and professional rugby is no one's following those trends in data

21:45and basically giving it to the other specialists in the areas to look at it and kind of apply relevant to the player personnel you've got or kind of where you're positioned in your season. You can just kind of expand a little bit on that. Yeah, so I think when it comes to data, there's a tactical level and there's a strategic level, right? So tactically, I think all coaches operate on a tactical level ever since the advent of video review, right? If you review an opposing team, what are you going to do? You playing Portsmouth United next week. So you get video footage of them and you say, well, let's see how do they attack from where? Let's look at their scrum attack. How do they attack from scrum? Where do they go? Do they go wide wide? Do they keep it close? Do they go the same side? What is their attack style? You might look at the same thing from line-out attack. And do they counterattack? Don't they counterattack? So those are all tactical things. And you might say, oh, this team, they've got a monster number 12. They go forward with him. Once they've got momentum, it's same side carries. They just keep beating you to a pulp.

22:46And once they've got in behind you, then it's game on and they're deadly. So we have to stop that 12. That's a tactical point of interest. And you've created a tactical solution for that. And that is fundamental to being successful in rugby. He's being able to solve the very practical challenges and take advantage of the practical opportunities that video footage reveals to you. But if you only look at that, you can miss other things which are massively important. And rugby is very slowly coming around to understanding the data side of it, which I think American sports have been hard on for a very long time. So for example, if you're playing a team that after 10, 15 games has not won a game where they make less than 100 carries or less than 100 passes, there is an insight in there that you need to apply to your tactics that is going to help you beat more successful. So if you're going to feed that team more than 100 carries and more than 100 passes, that team's statistical chance of success goes up. Now, those numbers are not going to perform for you on the field.

23:48But it should inform your tactical thinking around how you're going to take that team on where before you may have thought, well, let's kick to these guys and defend. You may decide, well, let's hold onto the ball and make them tackle because it'll keep their carry count down. And in those game situations, they are less successful. If you look at the stormers last season and you look at them this season, anyone who's followed them fairly closely, what would be if there's anything distinctly different to the approach, what would it be? Yeah, so I mean, I wasn't involved with him last season. I was watching from the outside. I would say the stormers have a very good handle on what their game model is great. In terms of maximizing their opportunity for success, I think they're all right over the target. I think fundamental to the stormers is set peace efficiency. Obviously, solid defense. Their ability to be very dangerous from transition. Any opportunity for the guys to play rugby, they are deadly. And then keeping the penalty count, I suppose, is obviously a key ingredient to that.

24:52So I wouldn't say that something fundamentally has changed. I think it's a work in progress. And as we saw at the end of last season, that run of success, kind of overlapped into this season with another long run of success. So teams are obviously always trying to find ways to stop you and they're asking different questions. And when they ask you different questions, you've got to learn what are the answers to those. And I think that's the position the stormers are in. What you're seeing with the bulls, as the evolution of the season, I can't have taken over the forwards. New assistance coming in at Neil DeBrain, coming from Paul Boys High. Yeah. You're directly right. Briefly, what you've seen in them. Yeah, defensively, they've improved massively. And like I talked about, chapter 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, when your defense improves, that's chapter 1. Your defense improves. You get opportunities to score from that improved defense. So we're before you're making four tackles, missing five tackles, conceding a try and then having to restart. Now you're in a position where you're making three or four tackles. You're winning a turn over or you're winning a penalty or you're putting them in a position where they kick not on their own terms.

25:53And now your attack is getting the ball in a position that is favorable where your chances of scoring a try are much better than they were before. Okay, Lions. Love the Lions. Clever team, punch above their weight. Some really good fundamentals. Very interesting carrot that their dangle in terms of getting you to play fast. And how you respond to that really brings them into the game or takes them out of the game. But they're a team that has grown immensely. Yeah, they're a quality side. And then the shocks. Plum was there. J.P. Peterson's there. Is there noticeable difference in approach in terms of coaching philosophies? We know player personnel has changed. He's invested in youngsters. He's made under the giant at 12 captain, gave him additional responsibility. But when you look at the shocks from early season to now, anything that's really changed, always more mindset that's changed. Yeah, so looking from the outset, and I mean, J.P. was there when we won the tri-nations in 2009 and were so effective with the spring box, he understands the kicking game, the contestable kicking game

26:54and isolating players in the kicking game. And I think what the shocks appear to have done is they become a lot more structured around how they want to play and where they want to play. And they are committed to that. So when they put boot to ball and then back their physicality, I think they are a very difficult team to stop because they can get a roll on. And you still, when you pepper that with the expect of the guys that they've got there, most recently, Gilliamews coming on at fullback, you've got guys who can make you miss in space. They put your under pressure, they punch you in the nose, and then when you try and get out of that situation, you get in the ball, you know, the guys catching the ball can move and can hurt you. And that's what they've been doing. All right. Based on that, all forward home again this weekend, we got the fall from fall last week, but all we asked for it, they delivered, the storm is kind of delivered in the probably the messiest way in a match that most thought would be the most comfortable, but they got the five league points. 25 tries to seven in totality. We do understand that those northern hemisphere sides that came over of them were under manned

27:55because they had rest of the six nations players from the current six nations. There's a few that have been dripped fed into the second round. And again, they only played two games and they go over, but like the old super rugby, they're not here for four weeks. It'd be a very different thing if they want to for four weeks. Do you see a fall from fall again this weekend? And that South Africa has to make this kind of count before we go into the domestic champions cup playoffs in the next four nights? Or is there a surprise coming some way? Mate, I hope I am very wrong on this, but I've got a feeling that there is one turn in the punch ball this weekend. I'm going to go from the back. So from the Saturday night game, I got the stormers to win by seven. I've got the Lions to beat the dragons by 20. I've got Munster to lose to the Bulls by eight. And I've got Cardiff to ambush the sharks at King's Parkman on a Friday night. They've played in twice there and they've won both of those games. So I've got Cardiff to sneak it by four points. Okay, you're very conservative on your points differentials. And I like that because I'm the complete opposite.

28:58So I'm going to go with four wins for South Africans. Yes. I'm going to go with the stormers winning by 50. Yes. The stormers are more. Yeah, they'll get the five league points. So the stormers are that kind of team. They're not putting anyone away and one doesn't need them to as long as there's five league points. I think the Lions are going to be a great game. You'll see the dragons do more than just defend. But I've got them to win by 20. So I'm on par with you there. Crapies on the boys. And that midfield of Henker from Bacon Brown some Bulls. And Rob Finter. Come on. I need a big game from you again. It does right. He has does cash. Fun rowing. And then I've got the Bulls to beat Munster by 16 points. Sure. I said to calculate in my head 16 points. I've got them to win quite company. Munster are under strength. The Bulls are playing some good rugby. They just need to sustain it. They're not going back about them scoring those 33 points for half time.

30:00They're only scored 70 in the second half against Kota but they didn't concede any. So good defense there. And I've got the shocks. I've got the shocks to grind out a win. And to win. He's such a shocks fairly. I've got the shocks to win by 15. On a Friday night. Yes. No air in machine there. I love it. Because there's JPC to compie one step forward and three back. They've now got to take a couple of steps forward. So I've got a four from four. And a great way to finish around 14 of the USC. And then going to the playoffs of the Investig Champions Cup for the Bulls and the Stormers. The Lions get a risk because they're not in the EPCR. A challenge cup playoffs. The shocks go and play there. And then by the time we come back. Two big rounds again in the USC. Hopefully we've got teams that are still. They've got a team that's still in the semifinals for May. And who knows maybe even in the final in the North of Spain at the end of May. And then into that last run. So while position by home games non-negotiable and you've got to bank the four.

31:03Hopefully the five points and like keep the pressure on a team like Lensdew. We've never been eight from 13. Right. In this kind of competition. That they would then have to travel away. Knock over Glasgow. And then come to Cape Town or Pretoria. And lose in a playoff game. Let me check my crystal ball. That's all going well. And then. Invested champions cup mate. We've been calling it from the beginning. That's incredible. First ever champions cup. Yeah. Quarter final in Cape Town. Between the bulls. In the bulls on the storm. Let it be so. It will be a sell out. Could be magnificent apologies for your ears. I can be excited when I think of the stormers hosting the bulls in the Invested Champions Cup in Cape Town in the quarter final. And yeah, it's just it's it's it's it's it's remonumental. I believe both teams have the capability to go win their respective last 16 matches. The bulls on the travel to Glasgow. And the stormers go to Toulon. And as Alzenar reminded you Toulon nine from 19 in the top 14.

32:04We know it's not an easy league. They haven't been overly convincing. Their form has been patchy. The start may all not quite there. In Johnny Wilkinson. The Brian Obama and. Joe Feinique. John Smith. And the like with them. Buckley's word. But we're going to speak quite exclusively about the Invested Champions Cup. Next week. But. Right now it's partisan and biases. I am towards the African teams. Jesus. I love how to look possible. Don't give him what they did. It's exactly right. Going to Europe and having to face those teams there is a whole different. I think if it was a situation where they were having to travel here. Definitely. But that's a that's a tough ask. You don't just rock up there and roll those guys. So. Huge huge. And we spoke about the difference in the week earlier. The show earlier in the week. Border losing to power. 39 17 with effectively their second streamers. And then out of the six nations come all the guys. To lose pretty much picked their strongest team except for DuPont who they rested.

33:05Border picked their team. Damien Peno had a lot to kind of prove to himself and to everyone else. They were there. Jolly bear was there. And they pumped to lose by 20 points. That's a massive win. That's that's the bullstorm is kind of right. Matt to lose and Bordeaux at the moment. One stage was to lose and too long. But now it's Bordeaux. Bordeaux going for their second success of a domestic champions cup win. Primed and top placings in the top 14 with two teams. And those two teams should they win their last 16, which they should. And to meet in the top eight. So one of those will be one of the French giants will be going home. We hope full of. We hope full of chatty to Brian a ban in next week. And the red events of chatty to Brian a ban outside of being the greatest. Finity show the greatest winners played for South Africa in terms of his tri scoring. 67 tries. A welcome winner 2007. We'll play over the year 2007. A wonderful seven to the bulls.

34:06Fantastic for the storm is in Cape Town. And just brilliant for Toulon. And he's time there. And he and Bucky's Bordeaux was also at Toulon. The only guys. The fans. The fans. Primarily of your voted for their best ever. Invested Champions Cup team over the 30 years history. And Brian a ban and Bucky's Bordeaux made it. Wow. Into that team. And that says everything about the impact. So if you think it's hard for him to lose. In that playoff game because his mind could be on Toulon. It could be on the storm. It could be on. I don't think he's got any any glass go last. He's not a glass of weed. He got to go to get a skill. Hey, dream spotting. I tell you. Yeah. Yeah. So it's hopefully we get to chat to him. And what we will tell about is basically the different cultural differences between stormers, bulls and Toulon. And just mainly he's timing Toulon and trying to give people an understanding of the stud my all. And just what makes it so special there.

35:07Because we think in Pretoria they got the best fans and captain got the best fans. You speak to a monster. You speak to the guys in Toulon and they say a different level as well. Climb on the same. So Invested Champions Cup it all starts next weekend and the weekend after that. So over the Easter it's going to be full on the best teams in Europe. And fortunately we've got two teams. The stormers and the bulls still in it. And the sharks we play in the EPCR challenge cup. One that they won a couple of seasons ago. If you look at the all blacks. He's finally made it. He's finally made his call sales. Dave Renny. Not there's any of the most popular calls either. And it's been incredible for me how much white brown conversation has come out of New Zealand. People are talking about the brown element. The Pacific Island is the cultural thing. The need for Tony Morgan to be in that side. It's just maybe, and I know people have thought it all their lives. But it's never been that publicly spoken. About Pacquiao, Māori, Polynesian. It's like Urakiwi.

36:08You're in New Zealander. And now there's this difference. Like there's going to be a Pacific Island heritage in the side. Tana Umarga. There's, he's got to keep the Pacific Island boys. Come to with Dave Renny who's got, who's Cook Islands is where his mom came from. And, but they've got a Scotsman in the mix. Mike Blair. Former Scrum of Captain Dave Renny, Mick Laskin. He's going to be his attack coach who's with him in Japan at the moment, if he can get a work permit. But I'm fascinated by the rhetoric that's come out of New Zealand. Firstly, the audience of here wasn't even a consideration for the captain. And now they don't want him in the starting 50th. They actually say maybe off the bench. How has that guy she has dropped since he bullied, since he's shafted Razor? We are. Please count the rate. Cut him to pieces. But what have you made of the appointments? And what have you made of kind of your first impressions of this coaching staff? Well, I love that Dave Renny has got his guys. You know, that's important. I think as a coach, the number one thing you've got to do is pick your assistants. Because it's no good. You're a great coach and you've got a great bunch of guys. But the lieutenants who are leaning on to actually execute the coaching and the planning.

37:12Or maybe not your first choice guys. So I think giving Renny exactly what he wants is precisely what New Zealand needs to do. And that makes Renny accountable for the results. I rate Dave Renny extremely highly. I think he is the best appointment they could have made. And he's worked with Mike, like you say. And knows how Mike operates and what his sort of philosophy is. And there's obviously a great mesh there. So yeah, I think that that is a good development. Tony Umaga is probably my favorite non-springbok player of all time. I love Tony Umaga. I used to get up to watch the Canes just to see Tony play. So I love the guy. I'm not sure coaching wise that his track record puts him in the best position to make the All Blacks successful. But you have to also understand that his coach teams that haven't been great. It's not that he took great teams and made them not so good. The defense numbers around Marna Pacifica and the Blues were underwhelming.

38:13So he's going to have to buck that trend at the All Blacks level. Fortunately for him, he's going to have the best available talent at the All Blacks. But I would say if you were going to highlight one guy in there for question marks, only because I don't really know Mike very well. And who's the other guy, Neil Barnes. Neil Barnes, but you were telling me all about him in the end, Mac of All Blacks, right? Okay, so interesting one. So no one would know him better than Viva, Stephen Donald. And you know, he does that lovely podcast after match. And I've just got some comments that he made, Kirsten Beave. And he said he's the senior assistant titan's an interesting one for Barnes. Because he's a senior citizen. I'm sure he gets the chief deals on that gold card while in truly qualifiers. But for Barnes, it's a great story, says Stephen Donald. He's coaching a level, he's well and truly equipped to do. Yes, he's been coaching Taranaki. But that's just a passion of his. He's not somebody that's got to this job by being a political player,

39:13which is what a lot of guys do. To get to this level, they've got to have played the political game. Not Barnes. He is who he is. He's been who he is the whole time. And it's a wonderful appointment for the All Blacks. And he's always a hard junior Taranaki man. However, he's highly intelligent, highly positive, right? Because, and I don't think you can lose sight of his positivity towards the game. Now, for those who don't know, Barnes, he's not Wayne Barnes. He's had a stint with Canada when Kieran Crowley was the coach of Canada. It was a coached Ethnie and Kieran Crowley, Taranaki legend. And Taranaki is where all the Barrett boys come out of, by the way. Okay. He's been with Italy. He was very decisive in changing mindsets there and mentality. Okay. And he's also being with Fiji. And Stephen Donald says he is the perfect foil for a guy like Jason Ryan, who's kept his job through Fuzzy, through Scott Robinson, and now through Dave Rene. So it tells you, and you've been a big Jason Ryan fan, that this guy's got something.

40:15But he says he often has a mentality that's bouncy and uses words and phrases like, we'll score here or we'll use this play to score. And it's not about setting up another phase or relentless play. If he sees the opportunities through predominantly his forward work or his kick of work, that's where they're going to go. They expect a very different type of all black approach. And Rene had set them as a moment. I think I know the players to play the way I want to play, to beat the side of Africa. And just watching their press conference and it just felt like I was watching a leadership of the all blacks from a throwback. Hardbuggers, farmers. And they said to him, tough task. He said it's tough getting up every morning, but he's in the shed at 630, cleaning with his workers. And then he goes to rugby. Farming is his first passion. And then Tana Umar, as you said, coming in, just iconic captain. Iconic, right? Wonderful player. Yep. And people who are critiquing him for, I'm not even in there saying that, the success of the blues.

41:15How successful was he with Mohana Pacifica? He is in there to provide the defensive coaching, but also to bring presence, to bring aura, to bring mana. I don't know how his role can be second guest, because it's very clear. He hasn't brought him in to be the head coach. Yeah, well look, I mean the bottom line is the all blacks con league points. And that's the defense coach's job. I think culturally great, but you've got to convert that into performance. So obviously rooting for Tana. Love Tana Umar, but he's got his work cut out there for him because the all blacks are probably at the bottom or near the bottom in their sort of history of tradition of fantastic success. So I think every way is up. I think Dave Rene is the man to make that change. I think Jason Ryan adds value. The fact that Rene's barge for Blair, Tana and Bonzi is a good sign. And the fact that he's got the freedom to kind of implement his vision. Pick who he needs to play his vision. Whether that's already severe, all 12 of the Barrett brothers, none of the Barrett brothers, it doesn't matter.

42:19But all blacks need to bounce back if you're a Kiwi fan. And for the state of world rugby, the box needs somebody that can push them a bit more consistently. So it'd be great to have the all blacks back on the scene. And if you also look at the one thing I've noticed, there's not panic. So they stay in Japan. Seen out their season to the end of June. Forget that they play their first match against France in July. He says, I don't need to be in New Zealand to know I'm going to pick. Yeah. How I want to play. So what you're not hearing is a four year plan at 16, 18 months plan to the next World Cup. I've got to get out of my contract now. I've got to be there. He's so understated. He's got Bonzi in New Zealand, who knows the scene. Blair staying with him at the moment. They're going to come over together. Tarnas in the mix. And mainly he's picked two guys who are very familiar. One's coaching in Super Rugby. The other one has been coaching at a domestic level and been very involved. And Bonz was with him when they went back to back Super Rugby titles. So I have put the box on Red Alert again since Dave Renny's appointment. I think he's a hell of a good coach. He's right for them.

43:19I think it's going to be Rack Pee's greatest rival. It's going to be an incredible test series here, the three tests. And then the one in the USA. It is feeling more and more like this is the rivalry. Not Scott Robinson bringing his crusader. He's not going to get rolled by Rassie's bulls. Yeah. So that kind of feeling. But qualify that because we are both very much on the Renny train. We both believe that the all Blacks will bounce back. The question is, what is the timeline? Are we going to see these guys pushing the box in this greatest rivalry tour? Is it a year away or two years? Is it the World Cup? When do you expect Renny's team to be? I think you'll see an immediate type of mentality change, which is not necessarily going to be in a result here. And when I say a result, I would be shocked if they came in one in the series here. Sure. Against the spring box. Okay. But where I was like three-null, I don't know what's going to happen in the exhibition one in Baltimore. Yeah. It's like, it's leaning more and more towards they have the potential with that buildup to actually get a win. Where would that win be? And if we're going to win the series, we're going to fight to win that series. It's going to be similar to the 2021 line series where it's going to come down to a score.

44:21It's going to come down to a kick. And that's a world record. Once the two greatest rivals, seven world cups between them. Incredible history. Hmm. To kind of produce those games at Ellis Park. BHL Stadium in Cape Town. And then obviously a 94,000 at the F&B Stadium. So that's going to be wonderful. That is coming in August. Zell's and I will be at those three test matches. So look out for us, especially in F&B Stadium when I take Baltimore. Well, Zell's would be Baltimore. Okay. I'm have to go there. I'm have to be me men through Scotty. Are you there? I don't need more poo at it. But from Test Rack B. From USC, in Basic Chambers Cup. We go to what we love the most is School Rack B. And it's that time of the year again. It's festival time. We get into the last week of March and the first week of April is school holidays. And in all the festivals, I love it for the most. Because I know sax normally went to three games at a festival. And then the hardship kicks in when they come back post. I was like, I've got to go play Paul Boyz. I'm Paul Rus. And Paolo Chum.

45:21Yeah. And then every night again, you think the soft one is the farm. Well, I'm Lumpur. And so, forget that they still got to play Weinberg. Rhonda Bosch. I know Bishops is the easy one for them. And I think hopefully they avoid telling burgers I need to say. But they've given them enough airtime. Let's talk about the real rugby schools at the moment that are out there, mate. And where do you see it going? Mate, I see there's a lot of festivals. All the teams are in action, obviously. Some of them are evenly matched. I think there's some mismatches here. Some high profile schools playing. Some laser schools. But just fantastic to be in a country where you've got this sort of level and this sort of quantity of high school rugby. Fantastic to see. We're all keeping our eyes on it to see where the next. The next Marcus Miller. The next Riley Norton is going to come out of. Well, I can tell you that. It's coming out of Polk. It's coming out of Polro. What else do you want to know? Great college potential. Marcel Tinas and Andre, you have been to. Yeah. And then at Bronson Malls are coming out of, out of Kess.

46:22What's coming out of Affiz at the moment? I don't know, mate. No idea. No idea. Okay, but if you look at it, it is the big Pretoria Boys I. 125th rugby festival. Yep. So, shout out to them. 125 years. You know who went to Pretoria Boys I. John Smith and a guy called Elon Musk. Okay. So, who did the first guy? Yeah. Who's that a second guy? What did he play? Thank you. Well, he's in charge of the Mars 15. I can tell you that Mars, Mars 23. And then obviously starting this weekend, well, this week it's a latter part. It's the North-Saint. Tweedays and Sessions want to North-South in 2026. It's the Northern schools against the Southern schools. It moves around. Last season we had it at Polro. It was wonderful. Just incredible kind of turn out that they had there. Jeff, we're Paul Boys. Yeah. We've got Polro against Monument. What do you mean? Yeah. Cairns against Otenekua. Harstfontein against Salamurka. I want Salamurka to win that one. Harstfontein a good side. Who went to Harstfontein? Yeah. It must have appeared to many others.

47:22And we go down to a senior grade college, help Makar, up his Oakdale. Oakdale, a very good team as well. You know who went to Oakdale? Who? There you go, mate. Otenekua. Monilahbock. Oricolund. Look at that. I think. Transphalia. Oricola. Did you know that? All over it, mate. I know. We're smart. No, no, no, no. We're smart, okay. But then you go down. Who went to Hilton, mate? Who went to Hilton? At Bobby Skinstein. Also known as Bob. Pretoria Boys High against Polros. That will be a good one. So one of the best teams in the country playing the host. And then Boys High also there. And if you go down. At the Greg Colleach. I'll play in Stelemberg. Gary Fenlockenberg will be. This is the game they'd be waiting for. Greg Colleach against Stelemberg. Up he's against him. Well, those out from the area that I also grew up in in the Northern suburbs. It's just wonderful to see them on the map. Challenging the big traditional schools in South Africa. So there were lots of schoolboy reggae. We will chat about that next week.

48:24Give you our unexpected moments, the things that happened. But before we go. I got to ask you a question, mate. Who's the hardest bastard in world rugby? Who do you think? Ever or today? Who's the one you played in six touch? No, no, no. I mean, ever. You've got to have buckies in the conversation. For me, Dwayne from Ulan is a no-brainer in the top three. If not first place there. Dwayne from Ulan. We bumped into him in the airport on our way up to Pretoria. And I said to him, mate. Any chance you got your boots with you. We can always use an extra shoulder or two. Dwayne from Ulan is pretty peerless in my view. And then Skolk. 2004 Skolk. Not linking Skolk at the end. Hammer Skolk. Equally. Equally is difficult, I think, in the ferocious contact situation. For you? Yeah, like buckies, he's always up there. Okay. I kind of understand when Skolkberger isn't putting that thing

49:25because he's got such an incredible personality off the field. And I think because of the way he evolved his game. When he came back from that life-threatening bacterial meningitis infection, last 20 kilograms, was close to losing his life. It was a very different Skolk that came. And the fact that he got onto a rugby field was a miracle that he played for province on the stormers again. And that he went to a World Cup and played for the scrim box. That was remarkable. I mean, that was bigger probably than his 2004 debut season, where you saw the mop of hair. And you just, as Eddie O'Sullivan, the Irish coach said at the time, the difference between Ireland losing and the scrim box winning was one guy. You may have seen he's blown mop all over the place. He was the player of the series that year. We'll play over the year. He was just phenomenal. But you don't associate him with a thug with illegal or illegal artists, the Skies Lane Forcer. He's just a brilliant rugby player. For me, the matchup with him was always him and Jerry Collins having to run at each other. And as Skolk says, they would seek each other out from 60 metres.

50:26And he said, play was that way. The play was that way. And he saw Jerry Collins. He would run that way. Just to basically take the contact. And he's known Jerry Collins from the kickoff. He was looking for him. And he said, you know, 40 metre run back. Where's the price of admission? I remember Sean Fitzpatrick saying to Big Skolk, 2007. That made an incredible comeback. The All Blacks to win 26-21. But Skolk and Little Skolk and Jerry Collins had just gone for each other. All swan Fitzpatrick. If it's in two warriors, go like that. So when I look at lists, what surprises me is that Jerry Collins isn't there. And a lot of lists. And again, maybe because he went overseas the late Jerry Collins. He played a bit of club rugby. So it's kind of out of sight, out of mind. But Colesy and Ben Yunds, they do for the love of rugby. I mean, that's a great podcast. Great banter. And then they picked their top 10. And one, two, three, four South Africans in the moment in the top 10. That's quite a good one. That's Kudos. There you go. For the southern part of Africa.

51:26And your main Dwayne is in. He's at number five. But they said between eight and five. Take your pick. And they went Dwayne for me. And Teddy, Ducer, Twyre, France, Jasper, Visa. He even had so bad. And they played with Jasper at least. And they're just the guys up machine. Great guy off the field for a beer. Wonderful team out there. They feel for a beer. Wonderful team, man. But he is just. They call it triple-bicycle hard. It is just so hard. And can do it. I mean, Jasper. Wow. Yeah. I think, so that list is the guys they've played with before. I mean, obviously. Or against. Yeah, or against. So, you know, I could think of like, like you say, Jerry Collins. Brad Thorn was a hard man in his day. You know, there's the only low-archie. It was a freaking monster. So there are other guys to think of. Those are the blocs of day that they've played with. I'm surprised. Courtney Laws is as low on that list as they've got him. No. Well, they said the top eight was so big and so strong and so hard. They had to get Courtney Laws and Julian White too. They made it from one from someone from England into the mix.

52:26And they said when it came to number three, Jacques Berger from Namibia, over 150 games for Saras and they said, you just have to look at his face to know we put it. It's flat as a pancake. And then, obviously, the big two Henry, two Luggy, Papillon, Samoa, and his son now plays for France, bigger than his dad of the famed Tologgy family and then Bucky's birth. So they said, even there, a league of his own. But an interesting thing they were asked, would he make it in the modern game? And both Cole's and Ben Young were like, you bet you would make it. That guy only got it. I don't think he got a red card. They said everything he may have done illegally. He did legally as well. So we're shout out to Bucky. Oh, right. Bucky's the one of one. The original enforcer, we love Bucky's. He's a bull, hard and bull. And the only thing that I've always said that's bigger than Bucky's birth in the world is he's prize bull called Yellowstone. I mean, it's a magnificent looking bull.

53:27So I like that list and I like that five Southern African guys are in there. And Jacques Berger. I mean, he's a guy that if he can play for the movie, he probably would have played for South Africa in his time. Yeah. We're going to wrap it up. So he buy just a reminder of Saturday nights kick off at the DHL stadium in Cape Town. It's the storms against Edinburgh. And I did a little stats comparison. Why the storms have made Cape Town South Africa's a rugby cap? And the stats you just can't lie with. And people talk about Newlands DHL stadium. I mean, it's a very different vibe, but it's a very different crowd now. But the stats are very similar. Continue. 23,000 on average over 157 games, Silver Super Rugby, Newlands. Sure. 43,586, 24 tests between 96, the professional era in 2019. And then you go to the stormy's era here. 27,733 in the 34 home matches played in the UIC,

54:32including the three thought layoffs. And remember, COVID restricted those playoffs as well. Top crowd was 33,000. And what I love is the domestic champions kept 21,649 average crowd in those eight games played over December and January. And what Super Rugby has you started in basically a late fair when you went in and it was rugby season. They competing with test cricket with S820. They competing with so much in the summer. Wow. To get that. And then the test matches. They've had three test matches here. Wales 51,347, New Zealand 58,417, Australia 56,350, and the ball bearing 45,000. Incredible support from Cape Townes for the stormers. And also for the spring boys. It is with no disrespect to Pretoria, Durban or Johannesburg. No, look, 100%. Anywhere else. Totally. Nell Spray, Nell Smyndella Stadium, Blumphantain, Cape Townes is the best city in the world. But also the best supported rugby stadium province in the world. Yeah.

55:32Yeah, well, so my view is obviously they called it Newland Stadium. For me, the DHL Stadium should be called rugby town. This is a rugby mad part of the world. Maybe the most rugby mad part of the world. And the attendance figures just back that are people in the Western Cape and in Cape Towns. Understand their rugby and support it. This is for us. They want to be there. They want to be involved. They love their team. Fantastic. Or it's at 7 o'clock kick off. Get there. I know a lot of people will be there. Not necessarily just for the rugby. Because there's the kicker. While Newland's delivered its biggest crowds in the traditional rugby windows to the traditional rugby people. I feel a bit like Jerry Spina, but I'm not reading it, OK? The stormers in the past five years, they've done it through peak holidays, which shows the enormous shift in audience behavior.