LFA 228 Betting Guide (Not That Kind of Russian) | MMA Gambling Podcast (Ep.1038)

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Howdy-ho. DeGenerino is working up to 1038 of the MMA Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling

Podcast Network. This sentence wanted to Luke Beakman, who on Spotify,

on our UFC 3226 episode, says, the Gumby Fade has to hit this week or I'm cooked.

So I don't know if he's cooked or not. You did a last comment from this guy. I love these guys.

God bless, and now he's got to feed you. That's why I was, it's not even like I did bad to ask

a couple of weeks. I was hitting things. And I hit Redolful Bulletin. Redolful Bulledo in the first

five in the night. You sure did? Plus 195. Hopefully you've faded that Luke Beakman. That'll

look like you're trying to get in this gas phase. Exactly. In your face. Gambling one six and six in

your face. I am like, oh, six and six. Oh, yeah, because I freaking coded our brand.

I thought I was doing poor, but I'm like, oh, I went eight and four in a one month. Okay,

I did better than I thought. Thank you, coded our brand and your and your crotch.

I am the artist from firmly known as Mr. Perfect with the Gambling Gambling Brilliant,

but apparently we have the fade. We have another regional event for you. I promise you,

four original events this week. You're getting four regional events,

however high water. LFA 228 is the event today. Do you want to talk about

regional? I see Japan was not. It was rising. It was the worst event I've ever had. Reverse sweep on

rising. So that's minus five right there. However, we did get two back with our Octagon play. So

despite a pretty rough, because you remember, we did two Octagon episodes last week. So

combine them all together. We picked up a couple of units there. So combine everything together.

It wound up being a negative three unit weekend, which is not great, but we're still up,

I think it's eight. We're still up eight because it was 11 going into last week or between 11 and 12.

So we're still up about eight on the year right now, just on regional, just on money line,

just one unit per play. So that's already good. And we're trending in the right direction

previously. So we'll try to get back on track with this one. Yep, you've got to ride the waves.

It goes up and down. If you stick with Gumby the full year, you're going to end up fine in the end.

Or Gumby will give you your money back, right? Our money back guarantee.

When you back on what you pay for the show, not what you pay. Yes.

I get you zero dollars. Very careful about what you're paying for. I'm not legal,

they're obligated. One thing I can't promise you, we have a contest going down, okay? You'll get

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Ryzen. So hopefully you didn't bet your house on Ryzen. LFA 228, like I always like to ask Gumby,

any overall thoughts on it before we dive into it? No, this has got to be going down in Arizona,

right? I'm looking at the fighters now. Yep. And I realized there's a lot coming from that region.

So that's usually a fun time for LFA when they're in that area because there's usually a few MMA

lab guys and gals. And that usually produces some pretty good fights. So and actually the

pre-lens has got a ton of people you've probably heard of before including some like contender

series vets and stuff like that. So that's pretty exciting. Yeah, there's some names we're going to

skip over the pie shop in the in the light and around. But yeah, there's a lot of familiar names

on here. Even if you're just a casual LFA viewer LFA 228 and a TV dot versus Garcia. So one of

the TV dot brothers are fighting. I'll let you you'll have to wait till the very end to run at which

one. Chandler Arizona Friday 7 30 PM start time vice TV US broadcast pre-lens are on YouTube. I

think the whole thing's on YouTube for for Canadians at least last time I checked with wild horse past

showroom. So obviously it's in the Arizona with the name like that. Chandler Arizona in a cage,

11 fights. We're going to break down basically half of them in full for you. And then coming you

will have some to choose from for the old lightning round. We're going to start off with maybe the best

nickname in the game, right? Jacobi Jones versus Benny Arasco. Three five minutes rounds 155. We

talked about both these guys before. So I remember talking with Jesse Arasco the picture before. No

odds yet because we talked about Anthony Arasco who is another. I think it's actually

fought Benny Arasco. I think really we had I think we had an arasco arasco fine. I want to say in

like yeah, you're right. A favorite a one. Sounds like something we do. We would get ourselves involved

in. Why don't we have a lot's got to be because the books are cowards, right? Books are cowards.

They do usually show up on like Wednesday or Thursday though. What we need to get some shirts,

books are cowards shirts. Arasco five and two with one no condes for submissions. He's been knocked

out once. One known LFA. He's one three or four. He lost his laptop. He used to fight at 170.

Jones Big Toe is the nickname Fentalfs. We know why. I know I'm sure we've discussed this. We know

why. We've talked about it a lot, but I have no idea. Have them on your show gummy. I guess we

have win first. Win your fight Big Toe and then gummy should have you on top of it. Anyhow, Big Toe

Jones. I'm going to be looking at his feet and seeing if there's anything strange going on

this week. He's eight and three. Three knockers, two submissions. He's been submitted twice.

Eight and two in LFA. The former champion of the promotion. He's won two straight. Before

a lot, he lost two straight. He's gone five and two over his last seven. He's not lost since

January 2024. Two inches, Charles and Ross go three inch reach advantage. And I don't know.

I'm assuming his toes are at least as he won't just longer as well.

Oh, and one in considered series two. He didn't mention that. Yes, yes. He lost in

container series two. Daniel James Allen. I remember.

Do you remember Daniel? It was a little while ago. No. So it's like a zero, a zero color.

Three. Daniel James Allen was like 35 or something like that in only five and oh.

And he's one of the ones that Dana was like, I can't sign up five and oh, 35-year-old.

I know. It was like a pretty good performance against Jacobi Jones. And then the poor guy

hasn't fought since. So I'm assuming he was like, well, they're not going to sign me up to that.

I don't really know what I'm doing. Anyway, I think Jacobi Jones's big favorite here,

former champ of the organization, fought a contender series.

Ross goes coming off the loss, negative 275, maybe somewhere like that for Jacobi Jones.

I will say if it's that, I'm not interested, I'm going to pick him to win.

But I think this fight is probably going to be a lot closer than the line is.

Betty and Ross go is like a pretty damn good wrestler. I would say maybe the largest detriment

to his wrestling abilities is he's not particularly good at establishing range or giving himself

into the range that he likes. As a result, sometimes his wrestling can look a little forced.

From the striking standpoint, same thing like the the range knowledge and range development is

not all that good. Sometimes you see him throwing and it seems like he's like too close for the

punches he's throwing. He can kind of get him clips sometimes because he comes in with his chin

up in the air. He mostly didn't in his last fight, but that's because he was fighting a guy who

is just like a better stockier version of him in Richie Lewis, which isn't even a bad loss.

Again, part of the reason I think maybe the value will probably be on the Arasco side here.

But at the end of the day, Jacobi Jones apart from that dinner with James Allen fight

has done a really good job of like defending takedowns, particularly as the fight progresses.

And so since Arasco, I like don't think Jones is in all that much trouble being finished.

Even if he gives up a takedown early one or two of them, he should make his way back to his

feet. Then by the second or third takedowns, he should be getting like front headlock positions,

which actually he's very good in front headlock positions. He does a lot of damage from there.

And then on the feet, like I think he's a much much better striker. He himself has really good

establishment of range and knowing where he is. And actually his offensive wrestling is pretty

good too. I think people kind of sleep on it because he's more seen as a guy who like picks people

apart from distance. But like I've seen him get in on people's likes to and finish a nice takedown.

So for Arasco here, I think like his only path to victory is kind of like holding Jones down

for 15 minutes. And then Jones just has like so many ways to win, which is ultimately why I was like

I don't really love Arasco, even if he does come in at almost three to one. But like,

man, like I also wouldn't want to be like hinging Jacobi Jones getting up repeatedly

as like something holding a parlay together, especially after seeing what he did on

contenders areas of that time, which was like, you know, not not the best performance in the world.

So like knowing that he has like kind of a dud in him here or there, maybe I wouldn't want my

parlay hinging on that. But yeah, I'm still thinking I'm going to win here.

All right. Jacobi Jones, he's like over 90% on topology. So it may not be planned.

I'd say just lead that out of your parlay. If you were thinking about doing a big parlay filled

with favorites to try to get some like nice return, just lead Jones out of it.

Yep. Leave him out of it. All right. We're going to 125 now. Livia Hibiaro, obviously from

Brazil, because my amazing pronunciation, Jordan Berkolder from the United States, looks like he's

about 12 in his topology profile photo, three five in around 125. We'll tell you about Berkolder

butters. There you go. It fits right in. The nickname fits for what he looks like.

Wrong color hair, but still all accepted. Butters is six and three. One knock out three

submissions. He's been submitted once, one in three in LFA, loss win, loss win, loss.

He got submitted in his last belt, regional champ, three years younger than Hibiaro. Hibiaro,

Galino chicken. I guess Eino would mean little chicken. Yeah, it's a little chicken little.

Little. Oh, yeah, that's right. Chicken little. I've heard of it. He's five know with four

submissions. He's three known LFA submission win in his last belt. One in one is a programmer and he

won a IBJ, one of those things. IBJJF. Yeah, championships there. Five inch to Tyler,

Berkolder, eight inch reach advantage. That's insane for for flylates. Yeah, well, Berkolder's like five

two, I think, right? Like he's a little guy. But Hibiaro is actually very, very tall too. I think

Hibiaro, especially being five and oh, coming off of some kind of flash. He wins two. I'm thinking

probably a big favorite year. My guess is similar to Jones and actually like this is a perfect

example of why I'm like leave Jones out of your parlance. You want a guy who's like negative 275,

negative 300 and to make a parlour look better. Hibiaro is the right one. Jones is the wrong one.

Hibiaro is the right one. And basically, the reason for me is you watch Berkolder. He's exactly what

he looks like in his tapology picture, right? He's a five foot two stocky wrestler guy. It's hard

for him to deal with people who jab him really well because guess what? It's hard for him to get

close to people. So like when you're pumping that jab out there, you wind up in a bad, he winds up

in a bad spot. And like we've seen it before, even like, yeah, we're back and I watched this

fight yet against the guy who was a levy name 13 in his career and he's kind of getting battered

on the feet until he gets to the hips. Now, with that being said, when he gets to the hips,

the take down game's good. You know, he's a good wrestler. I'm not crazy about his

Jiu Jitsu. Like positionally, he like seems like he lets people up more than he ought to.

And that's like a recipe for tiring out and getting into a bad spot or losing in some scrambles.

So like to fight a guy who is so good at Jiu Jitsu, like Hibiaro is and he's like, don't get

me wrong. He like sells out for submission sometimes, but like he knows when he doesn't have it

and uses it to come out on top. And then on the feet, like I know we're talking about him being

a Jiu Jitsu guy, but like on the feet, he's long, he's lanky, pumps the jab really well,

and his kicks are lightning quick, like very, very, very fast. I saw him throw a rear leg head kick

with almost no wind up landed on the forearms of the guy he was fighting, but it like

started out through the crowd. And I was just like, man, this guy, this guy really brings it on

the feet. So for a guy like Burkholder who's already like having trouble getting close to you,

like what could be worse than a guy with fast kicks that you don't see coming, right? Like so

Hibiaro, I think, has got to batter him on the feet. If it does go to the ground,

as good as Burkholder is, and we'll probably have the good positions to start,

I don't think he'll be able to maintain him. I think he's going to lose all those good positions

and eventually gets admitted if he goes that avenue. So really, it feels like Hibiaro's fight no

matter where this takes place. And I'm pretty excited for him. He would be a fun one to see

either in an LFA title shot in the near future or getting squeezed into, I know the ultimate

fighter is doing ban and weights, you know, often it has to be fly weights going up a weight class

for some of those. Like this guy is exciting enough to definitely be in consideration.

All right, listen, UFC brass pay attention. All right, Hibiaro is the at play. We got more

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SUV class according to Kia segmentation as of October 2025. Back to Arizona, we go Chandler to be

exact. We have got a couple of female fighters going next. I think we're sticking at flyway though,

right? Or these? Strawway, right? We've talked about actually this is cage. What about cage

words for that was yesterday. Cage words is old news. A couple of actually one fighter we talked about,

I don't think we've talked about the one yet. Anyhow, let's break it down after I get here it is.

Lesslie Hernandez, I'm wasting enough time. She is from Mexico, Alexandra Savicia. Saviciava.

Saviciava. Saviciava. It's a fun name to say. She's from Russia, EVA.

115, 3, 5, mid-around. We'll tell you about Saviciava first. 62, Tunaqa's one submission. She's

been submitted twice. 01, LFA, 3 and 2 over her last five. Got submitted in her last

bout. She is a regional champ. You just fight at 125, 2 inches child and Hernandez, 2

inch reach average. Because Hernandez is pretty short. Shirt queen, you might say. She's also

door of the destroyer. 53, Tunaqa's, she's been submitted once. 52 and LFA. 01 on

Can I have a strange because she lost a Juliette Martinez, right? She did. Whoever that is.

Yes, she did though. Juliette Martinez was one of those ones that they said,

we're going to sign you but not really sign you and we're going to get you the performances

to two. So she's taking like regional fights where she squishes people all the time and before

they they resign. She's like a 20-year-old Argentinian fighter. There you go. Gumby knows.

Hernandez is one one of three, but she did win her last bout. And that is it for the resumes.

So I think so of each other between being a Russian and Hernandez, maybe not having the best results

recently. Like we'll probably be the favorite here. My guess is like probably negative 250,

like a plus two 15 return on Hernandez. And if I can get two to one on Leslie Hernandez,

I'm going to take it here. I know the record's not pretty. The strength of schedules

really good for her. You know, I mentioned Juliette Martinez. That fighting contender series

was a split decision and it was like all action. If Hernandez got the nod on one more judge's

scorecard, she probably would have been in the UFC at that point. Do I think she would have killed

it there? Maybe, maybe not, but like the UFC probably would have hired her. It was an exciting

fight and it was up against a good prospect. The thing about Hernandez is that like she struggles a

little bit with the wrestling from time to time. You know, Juliette Martinez got in on some

takedowns and sort of bodied her a little bit. Because as you mentioned, she's kind of a small

straw way. But Salva Cheva is like not that type of Russian. You know, she's not the

the Habibra Mungamana Russian. She's like the Roman Kapilath Russian. So like she,

she kind of sits under heels and is like really, really waits to counter. I was watching her last

fight. It was with the Talia Alves, the Gal from the fighting nerds who beat her last. And like

Alves would like pump a couple of faints out. And Salva Cheva would just like wave to her,

like, please punch me so that she could counter. And like she's clearly got some power when she

does counter. But she's like clueless on how to be first. You know, like she seemed like really

out of her element in that. And then finally, Alves just got so sick of her like waving her on.

She shot a double and I was like, Oh, Salva Cheva has like no grappling. Like it's like not.

Yeah. And like granted, Alves is very good too. But if you go back, Salva Cheva's only other

lots is also by, I think it was a face crank she had lost by. So like she's got a documented

issue with like takedowns and grappling and stuff like that. So like we're probably going to see

a striking fight here. Her Nanda's does love to put her foot on the gas. She moves forward at a

really good clip. She's fought a lot of like tough and gritty veterans that, you know, I mentioned

Julie at the Martinez, but she's fought Jade Durand and Christina Brader. And like, I know these

aren't like household names that people know, but it's like all of the toughest raw weights on

like the women's regional scene right now. Um, you know, Durand I think is doing karate combat and

is really nasty there. And Brader is always a tough out. I'm like, so she's just like fought like

really tough people time after time. And she loves to get in the clinch and make it nasty and

throw elbows in there and she's got good knees. And she's like, she just brings like a gritty

style of fighting. And the fact that I think she brings the fight to Salva Cheva, it's like

going to be like Ken Salva Cheva, catch her or as her Nanda is just going to rack up the strikes

and win the fight because like Salva Cheva refuse at least in the last two or three fights,

sort of refuses to be first. So I'll take Leslie Hernandez based on like aggression and the fact

that like knockouts at women's straw weight or kind of few and far between to come by. So I'll take

the person who's bringing the action. All right. Dora, the destroyer is the play then. Let's move on

up the old fight card. The cold main event. Amari Sengasava Savan Sengasavan. He's from United States.

Carlos Tardio, which kind of sounds like a slur, but he's from Bolivia.

It's like what you're going to call people when they clearly have like the worst cardio in the game.

Yeah. Yeah. You can't call him the motor because the motor's taken. So yes.

Yes. Three five minutes rounds. Let's break her down. What weight class I say was one.

Oh, it's been away.

It's been away.

Anyway, one thirty five. Okay.

This champion of Tardio, Wonder Boy. Well, that nickname's taken, sir.

He's eleven and two. Two knockout seven submissions. This is his debut in LFA.

He's one eight of nine. He did lose the last belt though. Regional champ. He's fed him 145.

Five years younger than Sengasava and Installer. Sengasava, am I saying that correctly?

Seng, Sengovicin. Seng, Seng, Sengovicin. Seng, Seng, Seng, Seng, Seng.

Now I got you. Nice. He's eight. No. Four knockout's one submission. One known LFA.

TKO win in his last call. Moth region champships on his.

Mandel. Correct. Merch. Sportsgunpogus.com slash store.

March is your check out code of 15% off. He has fired a 145, 155, 165.

Then that is it for him. I think it's Sengsavon. Right? Sengsavon.

Okay. Sengsavon. Yeah. For me, Sengsavon, I'm not thrilled about this,

because I'm going to pick him here, but he's probably going to be a negative 800 favorite.

There's things I like about his game. Clearly, once he finds himself comfortable in the cage and

his felt things out, he starts to put it together in a way where I'm like, okay, this guy could beat

some people. But early on, it really feels like he toggles between grappling and striking,

instead of transitioning between the two. We're using one to set up the other.

It really feels like he's just like flipping a switch and doing one of the other.

Looks a little bit uncomfortable at range from time to time, but like when he does stuff,

you know, either shooting the takedown or boxing, it does look good.

And I can't say the same for Tardio here. He's coming off of a split decision loss to a guy

who is three and six. And somehow he's got this fight. I don't really know what they're thinking.

And then I watch that fight, too. And it's just like, this dude just like wings the biggest shots

he possibly can. Here comes a spinning back fist and a flying knee and like, you know, spinning

hook kick and just like whatever wild thing I can do. And then like even like occasionally,

he shoots. And it's like from 10 feet away, he's like, he gets a running start on his double leg.

And like, he's just like, this guy is like looking to wear himself out as best as he can.

Like if, if the object of MMA was to get as tired as possible, as fast as possible, Tardio

would be the world champ. He has no cardio. Yeah, it's got some real Tardio here.

And so I really think what's probably going to happen here. And this is, it's actually the

perfect kind of matchup for things of on because like, as I said, he's a guy who sort of needs to

feel it out. And then once he's felt it out, he can pour it on. By the time he's felt it out,

Tardio will be exhausted. And he will just melt him with like 700 punches in a row.

So give me a marty sense of on, you know, this number is not going to be anything worth looking at.

But I do think he's going to win pretty comfortably. Okay. We've got your main event and

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Yeah, we've been getting back in on one of our old faithfuls. We mentioned the warriors are playing

the jazz here on Monday night. And you know what that means, Jeff, right? That means that means

posky. No, that means the higher on Al Hoarford's three pointers. Because Al Hoarford's ripping him

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just do an Al Hoarford thing. So against the jazz, he's probably going to get plenty of burn

because there's no sense in like, you know, getting getting Steph Curry tired or getting

anybody else who matters tired. Even Moses Moody probably could take a break and just let Al Hoarford

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All right, our main event. It is a flyweight feature about Christian Nativity Dodd. That's kind of

hard to say. Nativity Dodd, a brother who is fighting. Christian is fighting Adrian Garcia,

the both American. As I said, they are flyweights, and we're going to break him down now by

telling you about the elusive Garcia is 10-3-1 with three knockouts. He's been knocked out once,

3-1 in LF-A. He's won two straight, and gone 3-2-1 over his last six. One is last but via TKO.

He's three inch a child and Nativity Dodd, who is the Hawaiian punch. Eight know with three knockouts.

All those fights stayed in place in LF-A. TKO win in his last bout. He used to fight at

Bannerweight, three inch a child and three inch reach advantage over Garcia.

Yeah, Nativity Dodd, minus 300 or something of that effect. He should be a big favorite here,

and I like him a lot to win. While Garcia's got a nickname like the elusive, he's actually not

all that elusive. I think his biggest problem is that first of all, he reaches when he strikes,

leaves himself open to counters pretty badly, and then second of all, the other major problem I

have with him is while he is a good defensive striker when he's in the pocket, a lot of times when

he gets blitzed by opponents, I noticed he sort of just shelves up and waits for it to end,

and I think that's a problem because when Nativity Dodd, that is his preferred avenue to strike,

he likes to line things up and box, but once in a while, he's starting to feel himself,

he blitzes you and just hits you with a whole bunch of stuff right in the row,

and I think if Garcia just stays there, one of two things is going to happen. Even if he's

protecting his head well, Nativity Dodd's going to rip the body. He's going to hurt him real bad,

and he's going to wear him down that way, and then the other thing is Nativity Dodd can just

take him down whenever he does that. If he comes with a blitz and Garcia picks his hands up in

shells, Nativity Dodd is going to get right in on those legs and slam him, and Nativity Dodd's wrestling

game is very, very good. This dude is exceptionally well-rounded. I know we joke about them,

Nativity Dodd brothers, and is this Kevin or is this Christian? This is a very different fighter.

Not the knock Kevin, but Kevin had a short stint in the UFC, and Christian should have been in

the UFC years ago. Why hasn't he been in there? I think he was a guy who was like a finalist

to possibly be on the ultimate fighter, and I didn't interview with him once where he said he

would have rather been on contender series, and thought that it wasn't the right move to go on

the ultimate fighter. So who knows? Maybe he pissed somebody off the wrong way. But the way he

fights, I mean, he's super exciting. He's fast. He's got some wrestling, which is always kind of like

a sleeper move and fly away, and sometimes you get guys like Tim Elliott, who like just win fights

because he can wrestle a slight bit. And so like, yeah, I mean, I'd love to see Nativity Dodd

at that level, but at the very least, he's going to blast the red ring Garcia here. So yeah, I'll

take Nativity Dodd, probably 300, 350, but yeah, I'm still picking him. All right, Nativity Dodd

is the place. Give your recap, and I'll get you some lightning round plays. He's got Nativity Dodd,

he's got Sanstaban, or something like that. Hernandez, Hippieiro, and Jones, lightning round,

Zappan Boom Power, letter rip. Yeah, I'll give you three on this one, because it's a loaded up

card. And as I mentioned, we're, we've got a surplus of them, they lab folk. So I'm going to take

Jonathan Powell. Jonathan Powell is a forno guy, for no prospect. He won Pans for IMMAF,

and then was at Worlds too, although I can't remember how he did it Worlds, but I do remember

he was the winner at Pans. So a guy, again, with way more experience than forno, super well-rounded,

very exciting. I'm going to take Eric Fimbriss. Eric Fimbriss is a guy who's three in one,

he was kind of highly touted as a three in no prospect and lost kind of a really ugly last fight,

but they're giving them a bounce back fight here. So maybe you'll be able to get a reduced

number on him just because he did kind of look terrible in his last fight. And I'd say the same

thing about Alec Lorenz. Lorenz was a guy who went on Contender series, got absolutely murdered on

Contender series, and now is back on the regional scene. You know, people might remember what happened

there, but at the same time, like he is a pretty skilled guy and probably the type of dude who we

could see in a year or so getting another chance on Contender series. So keep it out for him as well.

So that's Eric Fimbriss, Jonathan Powell, and Alec Lorenz.

Okay, you're set for LFA. We'll be in the discord, chatting it up, sportsgevinpogus.com slash

discord. YouTube keeps subscribing. Maybe by now we'll be 50,000, but we're very close. If you

haven't subscribed already, please do. Of course, it's MMA, gambling podcast at YouTube, SGP and MMA

at Twitter, at coming real and at Jeff Fox writer on Twitter, at Jeff Fox writer on Instagram,

moneymma.substact.com is my substact. Check that out. We have a weekly UFC pickup contest you can get

in for free. Come, he has another podcast, a weekly podcast called Top Turtle. He's got a killer's

murderous role we'll say of guests on this week. Yeah, all main card fighters from UFC Vegas 114

this weekend. We got Jose Miguel Delgado, Harry Hardwick, and Stephen Asport.

So you go Top Turtle and you can check us out at sportsgevinpogus.com, sportsgevinpogus.com slash

store. Remember March, you should check out code sportsgevinpogus.com slash patreon for bonus content.

Now we bid you farewell for just a few hours and we'll come back with more regional action for you.

Come, you do the bidding of farewells. All right, I'm going to be brilliant. He's Jeff

Butter's Fox and we will see you later today.

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And nothing brings us together quite like Team USA at the Olympic Winter Games.

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Comcast, proud partner of Team USA.

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