Madman’s Madman Act is Unconvincing

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If anyone should be able to convince people he’s crazy, it’s Donald “Very Stable Genius” Trump. The president’s long trail of bankruptcies, criminal and civil cases, and unhinged blurt-outs testify to his instability. So do his bipolar swings between peacenik platitudes and warmongering warnings, terrifying tariffs and reassuring rollbacks, magniloquent plans to do this soon forgotten in service to equally bombastically forgettable efforts to do that. As AJ Smuskiewicz puts it:

Everyone anxiously waits to hear what President Sybil, the deranged, delusional Caesar of the American Empire, is going to proclaim next . . .

NATO and the U.S. provoked Russia to invade Ukraine. Putin invaded Ukraine unprovoked because he wants to take over the whole country—and maybe Poland too. Russia is winning the war and holds all the cards. Russia is not winning the war and doesn’t hold any cards. Maybe Ukraine can join NATO. Ukraine can never join NATO. Putin wants peace. Putin does not want peace, so we will hit Russia with crushing sanctions. There will be no more sanctions on Russia. Zelensky wants peace. Zelensky does not want peace. We will stop all weapons to Ukraine. We will send more and better weapons to Ukraine. Ukraine needs to hold elections. Ukraine does not need to hold elections. We have a minerals deal. We do not have a minerals deal. No European troops should be in Ukraine. European troops should be in Ukraine. The U.S. should stop all involvement in Ukraine. The U.S. should take over Ukraine’s power plants. I’m talking to Putin. I’m not talking to Putin. I just talked to Putin. Who is Putin?

Trump’s fanboys think it’s all an act. Trump is playing 3D chess! Every one of those seemingly crazy words and actions has been carefully weighed and serves a higher purpose whose almost infinitely complex reverberations are obscure to ordinary mortals. But the simpler explanation, of course, is that Trump is every bit as nuts as he appears. Smuskiewicz imagines Trump afflicted with some unique and fascinating mental illness:

With all of his psychological weirdness, Trump—if psychoanalysts could ever get him into a psychiatric clinic or research laboratory—would surely lead to the generation of hundreds of ground-breaking clinical research papers and numerous new medical textbooks.

But let’s not over-analyze. Bandy Lee and other shrinks have long since put “Diagnosable Don” on the couch and pinned him as a garden-variety narcissist whose tendencies towards sociopathy, paranoia, and impulsiveness make him the wrong guy to put in charge of anything, least of all a country.

Does Trump’s craziness have an upside? Well, it’s (darkly) entertaining. Between Trump and the even more criminally insane Zionists, I hardly have to write satire any more, since it pretty much writes itself.

Another conceivable advantage to having a stark-raving-bonkers commander-in-chief is that America’s opponents and enemies and negotiating partners never know what to expect. This, we are told, creates “strategic uncertainty.” Since they are so perplexed and terrified by the specter of an unpredictable lunatic in charge of the world’s most powerful country, people like Putin and Xi and Khamenei will surely back down and settle everything on Trump’s terms…won’t they?

Well…no. In FFWN’s featured story of the week, “Why Trump’s Madman Act Doesn’t Work,” Samuel Seitz and Caitlin Talmadge explain that Trump, like Nixon, isn’t getting the USA anywhere by posing (however credibly) as a lunatic. The authors explain:

Unsurprisingly, behaving erratically can create doubts about one’s intentions and demands…If a leader is consistently inconsistent, erratically changing tactics and reneging to squeeze out further concessions, negotiating partners have no incentive to concede. Indeed, they have strong reasons to stand firm. Successful negotiations require that both sides stick to their word. After all, as Reid Pauly notes, if a police officer says, “Stop or I’ll shoot,” you had better stop. But if she says, “Stop, though I may decide to shoot anyway,” you should probably be less inclined to obey.

Trump’s threats to send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine are unlikely to force Putin to settle the war on Ukraine’s terms. Putin is a rational actor, and he has no choice but to assume that the US, despite the antics of its erratic POTUS, is at least somewhat rational as well. He knows that the whole US leadership knows that victory in Ukraine is existential for Russia, but not for the US or the EU. So Russia will keep doing what it’s doing: grinding out a win. If Trump escalates irrationally, Putin will escalate rationally. Due to the “existential asymmetry,” the rational side has escalation dominance.

Israel and the Madman Theory

Though the madman theory hasn’t worked for Trump or Nixon, one nation has deployed it with at least temporary success: Israel. As former Israeli defense minister Moshe Dayan put it, “Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.” By consistently engaging in over-the-top psychopathy, Israel and the Jewish nation it represents have hypnotized the world into letting them get away with murder…for awhile.

Israel’s national heroes are prison guards who anally rape people to death, snipers who shoot children for sport, spy chiefs who vaunt their worldwide terror campaigns, child-abusing rabbis who incite genocide by lying outrageously, fanatics who revel in torturing innocent humans and even animals. Israel also killed the Kennedys, probably killed Charlie Kirk, orchestrated 9/11, and is still committing the world’s first live-streamed genocide. Everyone paying attention knows Israel and its partisans are criminally insane. But the majority is not paying attention. So the myth of Jewish victimhood continues to bamboozle the world, and the psychopathic tribe accelerates its crime spree.

Ben Gurion, JFK’s suspected murderer, thought it was worth taking the risk of killing the American president to ensure Israel’s access to nuclear weapons. Only through the Samson Option, he and other Israeli leaders have imagined, can Israel survive—and keep killing people and stealing their property—in a hostile region and increasingly hostile world. (Gee, I wonder why they’re all so hostile? Must be antisemitism.)

But Israel’s “madman theory” threat to blow up cities if it ever faces defeat faces the same credibility problems that Reid and Pauly analyze with respect to Donald Trump and Richard Nixon. Israel is a very small country, with fewer than ten million people on less than 9,000 square miles of territory. It would not survive a nuclear exchange, or even a non-state-actor’s WMD attack (causing Zionists to flee like rats). The other side of the exchange would survive.

The criminally insane Zionists have dug their own graves by convincing the region, and the world, that Israel is indeed a mad dog—fit only for being put out of its misery as soon as the opportunity arises.

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