March 20th, 2026: U.S. Airpower Is Now Hitting Iran In The Strait & An American Cartel Takeover

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It's Friday, the 20th of March.

Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.

I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage,

and what a world stage it is.

All right, let's get briefed.

First up, a potential shift from Europe and Japan.

Well, possibly, on securing the Strait of Hormuz.

But as allies, stop short of specifics, US air power,

including A-10 Warthogs, is already striking Iranian assets

to reopen the waterway.

I'll have the details.

Later in the show, a bizarre and troubling turn

in the Cartel War, with a California-born figure

now leading Mexico's most dangerous drug empire.

Well, that'll complicate things.

Plus, a new US intelligence assessment is turning heads,

suggesting China may not be preparing to invade Taiwan after all,

at least not on the timeline that many had feared.

And in today's back of the brief, another reminder

of the Iranian regime's brutality,

where a teenage champion wrestler is among those publicly executed

as part of a widening crackdown on protesters.

But first, today's PDB spotlight.

We begin with science that some of America's key allies

may be inching closer to helping secure the Strait of Hormuz,

although details are in short supply.

In a joint statement, European powers, including Britain,

France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands,

along with Japan, said they're prepared to support what they described

as, quote, appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait.

Now, on the surface, that does sound like progress.

For weeks, the White House has been pressing

able allies to step up and assist in reopening

one of the world's most critical energy choke points.

And this is the first real indication that some of those countries

may be moving in that direction.

But let's take a closer look at that language,

because the phrase, quote, appropriate efforts,

well, that phrase can have many interpretations.

Are we talking about naval deployments,

destroyers, escorting tankers through contested waters?

Maybe we're talking about mind-clearing operations

to deal with erotic and sea mines or air support

to deter drone and missile attacks?

Or does appropriate mean something far less direct,

diplomatic coordination, or increasing oil production

or tapping strategic reserves to stabilize markets, at least temporarily?

At this point, there are no specifics, no commitments.

Just a carefully worded statement,

that signals a willingness, perhaps,

without locking anyone into action.

And that hesitation becomes more glaring when you look at

what's actually happening in the strait right now.

Because while the waterway isn't completely shut down,

it's no longer functioning as a reliable global oil artery.

And try saying that three times faster.

Global oil artery, I dare you, come on.

Since the war began, most commercial shipping traffic

has ground to a halt.

Under normal conditions, roughly 70 to 100 vessels pass through the strait

every single day, including about 20 to 30 oil tankers.

A new report from the Associated Press

says that since the conflict started,

only about 90 ships in total have managed to make the journey.

And even that number comes with caveats.

Many of those transits are what maritime analysts call

quote, dark voyages.

Ships operating without full tracking,

often tied to sanctions evasion and Iranian oil exports.

In other words, the traffic that is getting through

isn't exactly business as usual.

It's Iranian oil heading primarily to China.

Meanwhile, roughly 20 vessels have been attacked

in or around the strait, reinforcing just how dangerous

the environment has become.

So yes, some oil is still moving, again, mostly to China.

But the system for the rest of the world is disrupted

and unreliable.

And that is not good, as you might imagine,

for global energy markets.

And that's why this latest statement from Europe and Japan,

while notable still feels like a few steps short

of what the situation would demand.

Meanwhile, as allies are talking about, quote,

appropriate efforts, the United States is already deep

into active operations to try and secure the waterway.

According to Pentagon officials, US forces have deployed assets

built for this kind of fight.

That would be 810 warthogs and AH-64 Apache helicopters.

Now targeting Iranian fast attack boats, drone launch platforms

and naval mines.

The 810 warthog, or the Thunderbolt, as it's officially designated,

is built for low altitude, close range combat.

And it's particularly well suited for this environment,

able to loiter over the strait and engage small, fast-moving vessels

that have long been a cornerstone of Iran's naval strategy.

US officials say more than 120 Iranian vessels have already been destroyed,

along with dozens of mine layers used to threaten commercial shipping.

American aircraft are also pushing deeper into Iranian territory,

striking weapon storage sites and infrastructure,

tied to Tehran's ability to project power into the Gulf.

But as we've said before on the PDB, it doesn't take much

for Iran to project power into the strait.

A handful of mines, a few fast attack boats,

even a single well-placed strike.

That's all it takes to disrupt global shipping.

And behind the scenes, there are ongoing discussions

about whether additional forces, including ground troops,

could be deployed to secure key nodes like

Carg Island, a critical hub for Iranian oil exports.

No decisions have been made on that front,

but the fact that it's being considered underscores just how high the

stakes have become.

All right, coming up next, a bizarre twist in the cartel war

as an American takes control of Mexico's most powerful drug empire.

Plus a surprising US intelligence assessment on China's timeline for Taiwan.

I'll be right back.

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A new leader is emerging inside Mexico's

most dangerous drug cartel,

and at a time when the Trump administration

is ramping up pressure on narcoterrorism.

His rise introduces a surprising complication for Washington,

because, well, he's a U.S. citizen.

Just days after long time,

Kingpin Namesio Osegara, known as El Mencho

and how's that for a villainous nickname,

was buried earlier this month,

his California-born stepson,

Juan Carlos Valencia González,

stepped in to take control

of the heliscope new generation cartel.

So let's take a closer look

at this individual taking power.

Valencia González is a 41-year-old

from Santa Ana, California,

who is taking the reins of a cartel

and has built a reputation not just for drug trafficking,

but for operating more like a paramilitary force,

expanding territory through a mass violence

and fueling the flow of fentanyl,

net and cocaine across the U.S. border.

He's been described by intelligence agencies

as extremely violent,

but has also seen as someone

with enough internal legitimacy

to hold the organization together,

at least for now,

to avoid fractional fighting.

This is one of the most dangerous drug organizations

in the hemisphere,

now led by someone with direct ties

and citizenship in the U.S.

And that's where things start to get more bizarre

as if they needed to get more bizarre,

because what happens when the person

at the top of one of these cartels

is an American citizen.

That detail changes things more than you might expect.

It doesn't just complicate

whether the U.S. can target him,

it complicates how Washington even builds a case

against Valencia González in the first place.

Under U.S. law,

going after an American citizen overseas,

especially when tied to a criminal

or terrorist organization,

comes with an entirely different set of rules.

Intelligence agencies would need sign-off

from the Attorney General

and would have to convince the foreign intelligence surveillance court

that Valencia González

qualifies as a quote,

agent of foreign power.

Well, he is running a cartel,

and that cartel is designated as a foreign terrorist organization.

So I'm not an expert on this sort of thing,

but I might have solved it.

And even if those hurdles are cleared,

there are still limits.

Investigators will face tighter restrictions

on collecting personal data,

surveillance authorities will be narrower,

and on top of that,

U.S. forces are not allowed to operate

unilaterally, of course, inside Mexico.

So yes, the tools are still there,

but they're slower,

more constrained and far less flexible

than what you'd use against the typical cartel strongman.

And if you're thinking that all that sounds ridiculous,

well, yes, you'd be correct.

And that raises the next question.

What does this actually look like in practice?

Because up until now,

the U.S. and Mexico found a business model

of taking out cartel bosses

that seemed to keep both governments happy.

In the operation that took out El Mencho, for example,

American intelligence played a vital role.

At Mexico's request,

the CIA deployed high-definition surveillance drones

over compounds in Topolpa.

And that's area where El Mencho was thought to be hanging out,

tracking his movements on the ground in real time.

From there, once U.S. intelligence officials were confident

that they had their target,

Mexican Special Forces moved in,

killing El Mencho and eight of his bodyguards.

So now the question becomes,

can that same approach still work here

with his stepson, the U.S. citizen?

Well, the Trump administration

shifted how the U.S.

treats these cartel networks,

as we've long discussed here on the podcast,

designated them not as traditional criminal organizations,

but as terrorist groups.

That kind of strategy becomes a lot harder to apply

when the person you're targeting is an American citizen.

Because now you're not just dealing with operational challenges,

you're dealing with political risk.

Back in the Obama administration,

a U.S. drone strike killed an American-born cleric

who became a senior figure in Al Qaeda's Yemen wing.

The then Obama administration argued

it was a lawful act of self-defense,

but the decision sparked years of legal and political debate,

believe it or not,

from individuals who appeared to sympathize

with the American-born cleric

who became a senior figure in Al Qaeda.

Which brings us to another constraint.

Mexico itself.

Mexican President Claudia Scheinbaum

has made clear she's not going to allow

direct U.S. military action on her soil.

So you say to yourself,

where does that leave things?

Well, I'll tell you.

Washington can provide intelligence support,

but when it comes to direct action,

the U.S. will, of course, have to depend on Mexico to carry it out.

Now, I want to point out that Valencia Gonzalez

already has a $5 million bounty on his head.

Given the bounty,

officials expected him try to keep a low profile,

which, of course, will make the limited surveillance

options even more challenging.

But if his profile changes,

and he's identified and targeted,

it would raise a very real prospect

of domestic legal and political blowback

over targeting an American citizen abroad.

Even one sitting at the top of a violent and dangerous cartel.

I know, it sounds ridiculous.

Look, I'm not a lawyer.

I haven't even played one on TV.

But if there is a process,

and there is, actually,

look at that.

There is a process for revoking the citizenship

of a natural born U.S. citizen

if they've taken an oath of allegiance

to another country or have taken up arms against the U.S.

So with Gonzalez now leading a cartel

that's been designated a terrorist organization,

perhaps revoking his citizenship,

would be an order.

Look at that.

I've solved it.

Okay, I want to turn to a new U.S.

intelligence assessment

that's challenging how Washington views the risk

of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

And more importantly,

the timeline that had been driving years of planning.

If you're a regular listener of the PDB,

you've most likely heard us discussing the year 2027

as the moment to watch.

The year that intelligence agencies

have seen as the most likely window

when China would move on the self-goverting democratic island.

That timeline drove real urgency in Washington in Taipei,

accelerating defense spending

and forcing both capitals to prepare

for what many believed

could be an imminent confrontation.

So what exactly is changing here?

According to the new annual threat assessment

from Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard,

the U.S. is now saying Beijing does not currently plan

to carry out an invasion next year

and doesn't appear to be operating

on any fixed timeline at all.

In other words,

that clock that policy makers have been watching so closely

may not be as real or as immediate as once believed.

But here's where it gets more interesting.

It's not just that China isn't planning to invade right now,

according to the assessment.

It's that U.S. intelligence believes

Beijing would prefer not to use force

if it can avoid it.

Ha, well, that isn't really a statement

of rocket science once you think about it.

Of course, China would prefer taking Taiwan

without firing a shot.

It's no secret that a full-scale

amphibious invasion of Taiwan

would be an incredibly complex operation

for the People's Liberation Army and Navy.

And according to the Intel Assessment,

a risky one, they could fail,

especially if the U.S. were to intervene on Taiwan's behalf.

As we've been monitoring here on the PDB,

Beijing is leaning on sustained military activity

around the island, economic pressure,

political influence campaigns, and cyber operations,

all designed to tighten its grip

without triggering open conflict.

It's sort of the soft takeover approach.

Chinese President Xi Jinping continues

to frame unification with Taiwan

as a core national objective,

with American intelligence point to any takeover,

whether through the soft approach

or military action or both,

likely happening prior to 2049.

2049 will be the centennial

of the People's Republic of China.

Now, this shifting intelligence assessment

also lines up with something

we've been watching on the policy side.

The Trump administration has been working

to stabilize relations with Beijing,

with Pentagon emphasizing what it calls

quote, strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific.

And President Trump has suggested

that his relationship with Xi

has helped reduce the immediate risk of a conflict,

at one point saying he received assurances

that China would not move on the island

during his presidency.

Well, if Xi says that you can take that to the bank,

but from Taiwan's perspective,

not much has changed.

Officials there say they are not

easing their defense posture,

pointing instead to internal issues inside China,

including military purges and concerns

about weapons performance

that may have slowed Beijing's timeline,

but haven't changed its long-term ambitions.

So the clock may not be ticking toward 2027

in the way that many feared,

but that doesn't mean, of course,

that the threat is fading.

If anything, this assessment suggests

that the strategy is evolving

to one that leans less on sudden military action

and more on sustained pressure,

covert action, disinformation,

and influence operations.

All right, coming up next in the back of the brief,

a brutal display from Tehran,

as the regime publicly executes

a 19-year-old wrestler and two others

in its crackdown on descent.

More on that when we come back.

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In today's back of the brief,

we're taking a closer look at two developments

that together highlight a striking contrast

inside Iran's ruling system.

While Iran cracks down violently inside the country,

its elite families are living very different lives abroad.

We'll start inside Iran.

According to multiple reports,

Iranian authorities on Thursday

carried out the public execution of three individuals

accused of involvement in anti-regime protests,

including 19-year-old champion wrestler Saleh Muhammadi.

Muhammadi had been arrested during a sweeping crackdown

on demonstrations in January,

with authorities accusing him of the

capital offense of, quote,

waging war against God,

a charge the regime frequently uses

against political dissidents.

Human rights groups say Muhammadi was

subjected to severe torture while in custody

and forced to confess to the charges against him.

They also say he was denied a fair trial,

what, with limited access to legal representation

and proceedings that predictably fell

far short of international standards.

Well, there's a shock.

Despite those concerns,

Muhammadi was executed in a public hanging on Thursday

alongside two other men identified in reports

as fellow detainees arrested during the same wave of unrest.

The executions have drawn sharp condemnation

from international human rights organizations,

which argue the regime is increasingly using public hangings

as a tool of intimidation.

Now, I'm sure their sharp condemnation will do the trick.

But while ordinary Iranians face that kind of pressure at home,

a very different picture is emerging abroad.

According to an exclusive report from the New York Post,

children and relatives of senior Iranian officials

are living, studying and working at

elite institutions across the US,

despite the regime's long-standing denunciations of America

as the great Satan.

Among the most striking examples is that of the daughter of Ali Larjani,

the man who was serving as Iran's de facto leader,

until he was reportedly killed in an airstrike earlier this week.

His daughter, Fadma, is a medical doctor

who worked at Emory University's prestigious

Winship Cancer Institute in Atlanta

until earlier this year.

You can't make this up.

When the university reportedly then cut ties

following pressure from dissident groups,

she initially came to the US for cancer treatment,

a fact that human rights activists say underscores

the hypocrisy of the ruling clerics in Tehran,

who limit access to basic health care for millions of Iranians.

And she is far from alone.

Numerous relatives of high-ranking Iranian officials

have reportedly studied or worked

at prominent American universities.

The daughter of a former Iranian president,

for example, is reportedly teaching mathematics

at a college in upstate New York.

And in one particularly sensitive example,

the daughter of Vaya Tola Mustafa Damaden

and a niece of Ali Larjani reportedly works as a professor

in the Department of Nuclear Plasma and Radiological Engineering

at the University of Illinois or Bana Champaign.

She's also the director of a unit that analyzes risks

at commercial nuclear plants and reactors,

seriously a team of comedy writers

couldn't come up with something that good.

Inside Iran, these individuals

are often referred to as agasades or nobleborns,

a term that carries deep resentment

among ordinary citizens who see the country's elite

enjoying opportunities abroad,

while enforcing strict ideological controls at home.

Experts estimate that between 4,000

and 5,000 relatives of Iranian regime officials

are currently living in the US,

with hundreds more residing in countries like Canada

and Australia,

benefiting from access to Western education

and advanced medical care,

while the regime is busy executing young protesters at home.

As one Iranian dissident bluntly put it, quote,

they've turned Iran into a hell for us Iranians,

while their children live in the West,

holding key positions in universities

and spreading anti-Western values.

End quote.

And that, my friends, is the president's daily brief for Friday,

the 20th of March.

Now if you have any questions or comments,

please reach out to me at PDB

at thefirsttv.com.

And congratulations,

we have made it to the end of another week.

Your well-deserved reward is a brand new episode

of our extended weekend show the PDB's situation report,

launching this evening at 10 PM on the first TV.

Great guests, news, insight,

and the occasional clever question or comment from your host.

You can also catch it on our YouTube channel,

you can find that on YouTube, of course,

just search up at President's Daily Brief

and also on podcast platforms everywhere.

I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today

with the PDB afternoon bulletin.

Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.

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