Market Panic Warning: Trader Reveals 3 Signals To Watch | Kevin Steuer

My friends in military don't see this ending in the short term, and I know Trump keeps saying that.

I could see this going, unfortunately, until the US market, stock market can't handle it anymore.

Oil at $100 is mentally very scary for a lot of people.

I think the thing that has changed with Bitcoin, and I haven't seen many people talk about this,

is the last time it was kind of in that uptrend, the institutions weren't involved in it.

We're about to enter a period of much higher volatility, warrants, our next guest,

technical trader, Kevin Stoyer. Now, that's probably bad news for Biden holders,

but with more volatility, usually comes more trading opportunities. Kevin is the managing partner

at stockta.com, and he has an interesting and unique way of analyzing charts using his proprietary

platform. He's not just looking at one or two technical indicators. He's looking at how an entire

set of indicators moved together. We're going to be getting his trading signals for the stock

market indices, Bitcoin, gold, oil, and how to trade the coming volatility.

Also, I'm launching a second channel this week. It's going to be a Clips channel. I'll extract

highlights from my long-form interviews and post them a short or subvene eclipse.

I'm doing this because I know how busy we all are, and sometimes we just want to watch

a small segment on a topic where asset clouds that were currently monitoring,

instead of watching an entire 30-minute conversation that covers multiple topics in asset classes.

So the link to the channel is in the description down below. Subscribe now,

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Kevin, welcome to the show. It's good to have you. Thank you so much for having me.

Really look forward to this. Major moves that we'll be talking about that happened over the past

day. Oil went up to $119 a barrel before coming back down to 92, and we're currently sitting at

82 now, as we speak, on Monday, March the 9th, closing at aftermarket hours.

And the stock markets had a pretty good day, the Nasdaq reverse losses,

turning green by the end of the session. Bitcoin's up 3%, gold's slightly down on the session.

What are, let's say, the biggest drivers of volatility right now in your opinion?

I would say the price of oil for one, but also just the general conflict in the Middle East,

and I think the broader implications on what that can mean for inflation and rate cuts,

and midterms coming up. I think there's just a lot of uncertainty, and I think the markets

were flying, and I think we could be volatile for a little bit here going into the summer.

Can we pull up an S&P 500 chart and start there with a broad market index?

The S&P has been trading sideways for a few months now, ever since October. It peaked around

early January, and now it's been rolling over ever since middle of January.

And it looks like it's in the beginning of a larger downturn. Can you just confirm that?

Yeah, do you want me to share my screen?

And I can show it our chart show.

So this is the close from Friday. We haven't published our data yet because it's close to right

after the market. So we definitely are, we measure things from very bearish to bearish,

neutral, bullish, very bullish, and it's definitely lost its momentum. It is short-term neutral

with a negative trend score and bearish overall. And if you look at this, we use a confluence system,

and the higher the confluence number, the greater support or resistance, and there's not

much more support here. So I do think there's more risk to the downside than there is to the upside.

You see a lot of 7s and 8s for resistance, which would be like a medium, and you see a lot of

2s and 4s, which is light support. So the setup here in my opinion is not great.

What does not great mean? Baker downtrend?

I think we could see a move down here to probably 650. I don't think we're going to see a massive

sell-off unless things that I ran escalate, I think, you know, I think if things I watch are the

VIX, VIX has a couple days and stays over 30. I watch the 10-year, I watch the move index,

all these different, obviously, I have to watch the dollar. So there's certain thresholds that if

all those hit, you're going to have probably either liquidity crisis or margin calls coming in,

and that's when you see some really big sell-offs.

Can we just maybe back up and talk about your technical analysis and how your methodology works

before we dive back into the S&P 500? Just tell us about some of the indicators that you use and

follow and how you come to a conclusion here. Yeah, so do trade by yourself. Do you trade yourself,

by the way, where do you just do analysis? Yep, I trade myself. So a full-time trader

has been trading for a long time, been offered some training positions to run some family offices,

and I didn't like the strings that came along with it. So I'm just a fully independent trader

around my own book. And basically, the website, we use EMA, we use MACD, RSI, Fibonacci,

Trends, Sucastic, all the different things. And what's really cool about our site is,

we have 161 million rows of code, which makes it a really sophisticated algorithm. And

JP Morgan came out with some stats a couple years ago that said they estimate about 90% of all

US equity volume is driven programmatically, which means by computers. And all these big funds

that move money around have their own proprietary algorithms. So when you're trading,

you know, a lot of people think, you know, I'm trading against another guy. No, 90% of the time,

you're trading against the machine. And what we've learned is, you know, humans have emotions,

don't make great decisions when it comes to managing money. And if you're not good about

kind of blocking out the narrative and managing your emotions, you can focus on the wrong

noise in the market and lose a lot of money. So what we're trying to do is we're trying to give

Main Street access to an algorithm like this to just get another 200 toolbox, right? Like,

it's not a level fight right now. And I think, you know, just how the machine moves the markets

during the day, like we saw that today. Today was an absolutely wild day. And thankfully,

I finished up and my best stock did really well. But if you're not positioned the right way and

you don't know how to manage your risk, today was probably a really bad day for you. And let's just

talk about today. So you woke up, everything was in the red and then a reverse. Can you just walk

us through the trading process for the day? How frequently do you trade throughout the day? Are you

are you a day trader? Are you a swing trader for more of a longer term? Sort of trend. Tell us

about your. Yeah, tell us about your day. So I prefer to swing trade. I've won. I made some

trades today. So I'm up 22 and a half percent on the year. I've won 77% of my trades for the

air. So I'm doing really well. Last year was up 76.3%. So I'm kind of a mix of a swing trader

and a long term trader. I'm not a day trader. I'm not an options trader. I don't use leverage.

I think that's really dangerous with how the system set up. But I do my market analysis the

night before the morning of I usually don't trade the first half hour. If it's really volatile,

like today, I didn't touch anything for the first hour. I like just to kind of see how the price

movement works. And today I sold some stuff when it bounced and I was up on some stuff just

because I'm still not liking the market action. I know Trump's going to speak here shortly. I don't

know what he's going to say. If the Iran situation continues to escalate, I think we could be seeing

some some more down days in the market. So as of this recording, I'm 41% cash. And I'm just really,

you know, I'm just being cautious here in the short term. Like I think the market's basically

even on the air. So I've done a really good job outperforming the market. I just don't want to

give it all back in a week if we have some crazy trading going on. So it sounds to me like you're

basing a lot of your trades on current events. Is that right? A mix of current events and what

the charts are picking up. So I definitely am more of a technical person. And I look for patterns

in the charts. And I just like I said before I look at the VIX. I look at some of these other

indicators that kind of give me like, you know, basically green light yellow light flashing or red light.

And right now I'm getting a lot of yellow light. So I'm being a little more cautious than I would be

if, you know, if the VIX was back in the teens and the move index hasn't been moving as much

as it has been. I mean, we went from, you know, I don't even know what it was a couple days ago,

but I just feel like it's gone up like 20 or 30% in the past couple days. So 27. And yeah,

it's gone up a lot in the last couple of days. It's at the highest levels in the middle of last

year, April 25. So I just think all these indicators and I think oil at $100 is mentally very

scary for a lot of people in a big mental block. So I just think people see $100 oil and they panic

and that's going to cause some other issues. So my longs that I'm up on, like I put out a news

letter yesterday. I've had VRT, which is verative holdings as my number one holding for a while. That

was up, I think like 9.3% today. So that stuff I'm still holding and I'm watching, but some of the

other stuff like copper really doesn't look good here. I can share my chart with you if you want.

Yeah, please do. So COP X is from Friday's close. Had heavy resistance at 87.08 has lost its

trend score. So I got out of Copics. I started trimming it last week. I think I was out of it

completely today. C-P-E-R, which is ETF for the copper miners. Also heavy resistance above

at 36.37. That's bearish trends in the short term. So I didn't have any of that, but I don't like

to be in stuff that's bearish trend if I'm trying to be long. If that makes sense.

Can you just take this from prepping the security to walk through an example of how you read

indicators, particularly you've got to focus on generating confluence numbers. So

your algorithm uses confluence numbers to basically pinpoint how a bunch of different

indicators, including EMAs, MACDs, RSIs, etc, converge to create a confluence number. So just

there's a lot of fancy words for technical analysis for people who may not be familiar with how you

do it. Maybe just walk us through an example. Yeah, so this is I'm going to pull up XLC because that

was one I've been watching. So I'm not long this, but I've been watching it very closely.

This one's was bearish. It kind of broke out a little bit. I look for EMA crossovers. I look

for a confluence that has a heavy number behind it as support. So this is at 117.46. That's

Friday's close as heavy support at 117.2. So basically what I'm looking for is this is gaining

signal strength. It has heavy support underneath it and not much for overhead resistance.

He wants something that has room to run. So this one's been on my watch list because

again, I'm not being super aggressive when I buy here, but as I'm looking at setups,

I want something that has asymmetric risks. So in our algorithm, depending on what goes on with

Iran, if the markets are in a normal kind of phase, this is a setup that I usually favor because

I think there's upside to it. Is there anything here that seems really, really overvalued to you

that you've been watching so far? I mean, and I guess you can maybe also define how you would

approach the term overvalued. Everybody has their own way of. I'm not a big value investor.

I do look. Is there a difference between overvalued and overbought?

That's a good question. I mean, I guess some ways you could argue it's similar.

Depends on the market capital company, I guess, but you could have a situation where overbought

would also be overvalued if the charts really run. That makes sense. So anything I bit overextended.

Yeah, please go ahead. I bet I had a crypto was back in forth in 2025. I did really well with it,

did well with ETH and XRP and some of those other coins. But we got out of this

back in the fall, probably somewhere around here. You look at all that overhead resistance

and now it's starting to form a bottom here. That's like medium support at 36.31.

But now there's medium resistance at basically 40. So if you're a range bound between 36 and 40,

that's not a great trade. That's not something I would personally put on. Now some people,

if you're a high frequency trader, that's a little bit upside. You might try to make that bet and

see what happens. But for me, there's always a bull market somewhere. And that's where this site's

been really helpful for me as I run the stock screen and I find opportunities. I've got to find

a netflix. Netflix is right here. So this started to break back out after the news. They weren't

merging with Warner Brothers or Time Warner or whatever that deal was. But we went long somewhere

around here. I think once it started to build medium support level, now you look at it. There's

not much for overhead resistance. So now your risk reward setup, you're back to a neutral

trend score. It's been increasing your bullish intermediate. This is a bet that I'm long this right

now. Just full disclosure. And this is one that I'm up a little bit on. And if the market gets

crazy and I ran, makes things worse. I'll get stopped out, but I'll still lock in a profit. And if

not, I'm going to let it run and it might run up to 115 or 124. And then that's a nice swing trade

for me. So Kevin, I've got just let me share my screen for just a minute. So here's a prediction

market cash. It's one of the biggest in the US. S&P 500 close priced by the end of 2026

traders are predicting 12% 727300. Overwhelming majority are bullish basically because right now,

6796, how would you approach a question like that? How would you, you know, if somebody asks you,

S&P 500 close by the end of the 2026, which way would you put your money? Walk us through the process

for evaluating, first of all, the direction and then maybe the magnitude of the moves.

Yeah. I think that's tough. I mean, to be honest, I'm not great at predicting.

Sure. You know, the long-term prices, because that's kind of not the trader I am. Like I just

try not a lot of people are. Yeah. Like I just try to find the trend and I ride it as long as I can.

And as long as the trend stays up, like VRT has been up, you know, 1000% in five years. I keep

riding that. It's been great. If it breaks trend and it has a bigger issue, then I get out of it.

But I mean, the market, you know, usually goes up, usually it has good years. So if I was a

betting man that average says you should probably, you know, bet the over on it. But I think the

quicker this Iran mess gets situated. Like you think about all the stuff that's come out in the

past week in the market or two weeks, like that the tariffs get overturned by the Supreme Court.

You've had a revised job number down. You got a February job number that was a surprise to some

people and was down. So you see all these corporate layoffs due to AI. I don't know if that's true or

not. But I think you end up in a situation where there's just a lot uncertainty. And I think I

could see that, you know, carrying into the summer and I read something about, you know, the U.S.

trade court or trade an international court. I'm not a tariff expert. So I'm not probably the

greatest guest to have on this subject. But basically the U.S. government got called before it.

And they said we want you to issue refunds. And the government said we don't know how to do that.

We don't have the technology to do that. But if you give us four months, we might be able to figure it

out. And I'm like, I don't know if I'm on the other side of that. And I'm able to refund.

I mean, I could see lawsuits going into the summer. You got midterms coming up. Like,

I think it could be a choppy market. And if you're a good trader, like there's always good opportunity

in the chop as long as you manage your risk well. So like, either way, I'll be fine. It's just,

you got to figure out what your process is and you got to stay disciplined within it.

Well, let's talk about oil then. So again, how high will WTI oil get by the end of the year?

I'm not asking to predict where oil is going to end up by the end of 2026. But let's just take a

look at the current trend. Like you said, you follow the trend. Trends obviously have been up,

but it's a very short term trend. And people want to know if this trend is going to sustain.

So how do you make that conclusion? Whether or not this is a short term trend or we've got more

bullish momentum ahead? Oil is a tough one right now. I'm not long oil full disclosure. And that's

just because after the Venezuelo thing and it ran so much, I was like, it just, the price

actually got weird. And here's where I look at volatility. So the ticker for oil volatility and

thinker swam, which is one of the platforms I use. OVX is at 100 right now. And the all-time high

was I think this week earlier this week was 105. But before that, it was 12-1-21. The previous

high was 101. So I think when you have oil volatility that high, I think you're really,

I think it's really tough to trade. So like right now, our algorithm has crude oil in the 70 to 92 range.

So if it's at 84, 82 right now, that's kind of a middle range. If it came back down a little bit,

maybe I'd take a swing at it. But if I was going to trade oil, I'd be looking at stuff that

doesn't have a lot of exposure overseas. So like, oh, X, Y, I know it's a big warm buffet holding.

But you know, that one is got a pretty good score in our algorithm. So like, I've been looking at

that lately. But again, I'm doing more kind of watching right now than I am actually buying like

VNOM is another one, Viper Energy. I think that's a subsidiary of Fang, which is diamond back energy.

Like that one, I've done really well with over the years. So I'm not long oil right now. It

doesn't mean I won't be soon. But I mean, by the time we finish this podcast, Trump could come out

and declare that the war with Iran is over. They signed a peace deal. I'm not saying that's likely,

but you got to, you got to always factor that in, right? Like you never know what's going to happen.

And if that happens, you could see oil give back a lot of these gains that it's had in the past couple

of weeks or week and a half. Yeah, prediction markets are calling for 45% chance of an U.S. U.S.

Iran nuclear deal before the end of 2026. So yeah, unlikely by tomorrow, you know,

war is a terrible thing. We all went hope for it to end. But I don't, yeah, I agree with you. I

don't see that happening right tomorrow either. But how do you evaluate trends overall? Let's just

take oil as an example, all right? I'm not, you know, we don't have to give specific levels if you

don't, if you don't have it, but you're welcome to. But something like oil that's run up a lot in

the last couple of days. Everyone's trying to jump into the market. We're deciding they should

jump in the market. And someone asked you, Kevin, what happened to oil just from a technical

perspective in the last couple of days? And should I get it now? How do you evaluate that question?

Well, I mean, I think the simplest way is I look for higher highs and higher lows, right? Like

from a very, I'm very simple with my technical analysis, right? Like I look at a stock and it's,

their chart is almost like a resume to me. And they're applying for a job in my portfolio,

if that makes sense. And if the chart is clear and it's along, then I'll go along it. But if I

have to justify and work hard to make a trade look good, they shouldn't be in my portfolio to begin

with. So I just look for, you know, very simple. Is it making higher highs or higher lows?

Do you have, you know, positive crossovers that could be the five over the 13, the five over the

20, the five over the 50, the 20 over the 50. Like there's different indicators you can look at,

depending on your time frame. But I actually keep my technical analysis pretty simple. Like I see

some people on Twitter and they got a million lines drawn on their, on their chart. And I'm like,

I don't even know what the heck you're looking at right now. Like it's, I don't make trading hard

because it's hard enough already. Like that's why I love trading. I think it's the hardest game

in the world. And if you win 50% of your trades, you're a great trader. So I think, you know,

I think you can stare at charts all day. You can draw all kinds of different stuff. I mean,

I think moving out sometimes if you can't get a clear picture on a daily chart, sometimes

moving out at a weekly chart or sometimes moving out a monthly chart. Like sometimes there can be a

lot of noise within the market. Like Microsoft right now, everybody's talking about like it's 200

week moving average. Okay. I'm watching it very closely here. It could be a generational buying

opportunity. But again, I'm kind of more in a watching mode. And I'm going to see what the price

action is on that. That could be a great long, could be tomorrow, could be next week. And to

me, the why doesn't really matter as much as the went, right? Like a stock can go up and down for

any reason. It's all beyond my control. But what I do have control over is when I enter eggs at a

position. So for me, that's kind of the big thing is, you know, trying to be patient. And that's,

that's for me, that's the hardest part. So that's why like a day like today and last week, like

I record a podcast last Thursday and offline. I was talking with the other guy and we're talking

about what we're going to do with our stocks on Friday. This two weeks ago before we bombed

I ran and I was like, I think I'm going to sell a lot of my stuff because I don't like the price

action here. The I ran thing is just the big unknown. And I think if the market, if we do that,

the market's going to not like it and we're going to have a bad day. And then Friday, they come out

and they said, Oh, we've made talks in the piece deal. Things are looking good. And now we find out

that was a trap to get them all in one spot. So we could bomb them. And Monday, the market tanks

at the open, right? And I'm like, well, miss my chance to sell. And then it rallied. And then

Tuesday, Wednesday was choppy. Like I did pretty well all those days. And again, I'm not trying to be a

short term trader. But I think when the risk is high, you got to be really careful with what you do.

So for me, that was, you know, keeping my stops tighter and not entering positions that were,

you know, mediocre setups if that makes sense. All right. And since you brought up exit strategy,

tell us about your exit strategy. Do you set stops? Do you set exact levels? Do you just take

profits after a certain percentage point gain? Yeah. So I do. I will take if I hit certain price

targets, I will start taking some of my position off. Like I don't, I don't, I scale into a position.

I try to scale out if that makes sense. So I'm not buying everything. I want some not selling

everything. I want you to call yourself a scalper. Yeah. I do hear in there a big thing we found

with this site when we back tested it is a lot of these algorithms know where people stops are

because they all use the same kind of trading software. So like if you know, you know, if you set

your stop at 60, I've seen this that happened today, actually. Markets ran down in the morning.

They ran everybody stops. They created all this selling. And then the market came back this afternoon.

So I try to set my stops kind of below where that support level is. And if my entry is good,

you know, if I find that medium or heavy support before I buy into it, now if I get stopped out,

I guarantee myself profit. And I try to put in those stops. You know, I find our software is a

little different because we use a different system with a complement system. So I've had really

good luck in not getting stopped out of stuff. Like I didn't get stopped out of stuff today

for the most part because of where I set my stops. And that allowed me to come back this afternoon.

And I finished up on the day, which was great because I feel like a lot of people, a lot of

my friends are texting me, everybody panics older about 10 o'clock this morning.

Well, give us an example of something that maybe you've bought and it went down. So basically,

when the trade went sideways, you lost money and tell us how you exit it from that trade.

When things are at a loss, which happens to every single trader, what do you do?

Um, so one recent one that's still burning my memory is I think it's RR. Forget the name of it.

It's a robotics company. I think it's Rich Tech Robotics. Didn't know anything about them.

Found them in a scan and they had, you know, decent momentum behind them, bought it. And

within the first couple days, I'm like, I really don't like the price action. I set my stop.

I'm like, something's weird about this company. Like there was some insider stuff going on.

It just, it just didn't look right and the chart didn't look right. And eventually, I was up a

little bit, sold about a quarter of my position. And then it had a really bad down day. And I got

stopped out. And I think that down day was like minus 20%. I think I got stopped down like

minus 15% or something wherever my stop was. And it came out that there was accounting issues

and possible fraud or something along those lines. And there was basically just some sketchy

accounting and the stock sold off. And then I think the next day, I think that news was fake or

wasn't totally true. The next day, Microsoft announced a partnership with them. It went up 40%.

Wow. So I was like, and it wasn't a large position, right? Like I always managed my

positions to make sure I'm not too overloaded with stuff. But you know, 40% a day doesn't,

that's not an everyday kind of trade. And especially it's not a, it's not a microcap company,

right? So it doesn't have these wild swings. But I was like kicking myself. I was, you know,

texting some of my trading friends. I'm like, man, you guys will not believe the bad luck I just had.

And then I think within three trading days, I think it round tripped and was it actually

down worse than what I sold it for when I got stopped out? Wow. So like you want to talk about

a wild ride of like down 20% up 40% and then down another like 30, 40, whatever percent.

I wasn't following that closely at that point, but it was one of those like, I actually,

my system saved me. And that's great. But you can never account for everything that goes on.

But you know, I think having stops is important because you always got to manage your risks. Like I've

never knock on what I've never blown up a portfolio. And that's, you know, I've been doing this for,

I don't know, 15 years now. And it's as long as you, you know, you walk in profits and you save ammo,

you can always get another crack at the bat. If you blow your capital one and strike out,

it's really hard to start from zero and gain that momentum back. So I want to close off the

conversation with three more topics. First of all, AI, gold and then Bitcoin. It's so comment

below where you think Bitcoin and gold are going to go and whether or not tech stocks have more

room to climb. We're going to get Kevin's take before we comment on those asset classes. Let's just

finish off with a few more trading examples. I've heard numerous examples throughout my personal

life, count those examples of trading friends of mine who have bought something and then just

held it for longer than they should have. Hey, David, I just got this stock where I bought options

on this thing. And it's up 60%. And I asked to have you taken profits. Nope. You think it's going to

go up. So I mean, I don't know, but it just, it just feels like it's a bit early. And I want to sit

on a bit, sit in on it a bit more. And at the end of the day, it just sounds agreed to me. And

there's, there's a difference between patience and greed, a fine line. So how do you draw that line?

What's something it's up 40%, 60% and you don't know if it's going to go up more. And of course,

you could take profits now and it could go up another 150% who knows. I mean, anybody who's

bought gold back in 2024, in the middle of 2025, they're already up more than 50%. That was a good margin

to take profits on. But of course, if you did that, you would have missed out on more gains to $5,000

in a later half of 2025 and 2026. So how do you make the distinction between sitting on something

after it's gone up versus taking profits? That's a great question. For me, it's position sizing.

And like I said, scaling in and scaling out. And basically, I manage my risks that I buy enough

that if it starts hitting my profit numbers, I start selling some and that eventually, I'm just left

with a bunch of free shares. And those could go to zero and I'd still make money. Does that make

sense? Like the math is different on every stock. It depends on your position sizing. But

if you have a big gain and you start to, you know, pair it back a little bit, you end up with

just free shares at some point. And those you can let them ride until the trend breaks or until you

think that sector is done. But I mean, Palantir was one for me. Like I started buying that at 8, 10, 12,

18 bucks. And I let that, you know, I scaled out of it. But I think by the end of it, when Palantir

was close to 100, I still had, you know, wasn't a huge position. But it might have been, you know,

one or two percent of my book. And those were just free shares. So I held on to those as long as I

could until the trends go really broke. And those are your home runs, right? Like I try to hit singles

and doubles. But you try to leave enough chips on the table that you can take that home run swing

and still get that big win. Because that's the fun part of trading, right? Is like, you know,

you might not, you might have some losses. You might string together a series of losses. But you

get that, you know, you get that one big hit. And it keeps you coming back to the table, right? Like,

it's golf. Like I golf, I'm not a great golfer. You can go out and have a terrible round. But you

hit that one ball. You hit that one great shot. That's all you think about keeps you playing golf.

It's kind of the same thing with trading, right? Like you can, you can have a bad day. But if you have

enough small, if you have enough big wins to cover up small losses, you can still have good days.

Does that make sense? Sure. You a golfer? I'm not a golfer. Unfortunately, never got into it.

I'm also not good at staying disciplined when I, when I'm up a certain percentage on trades in my

past, which is why I'm not a professional trader now. It's always a question that I've had in my

my life. When, when do you take profits? Let's take gold, for example, F $1,100, okay? Yeah, you're

up more than 100% since a year ago. Yep. I think you got to take all these narratives on my

podcast and all my other shows as well. It's people giving reasons for why gold's going to go higher.

Even JPMarkins got a 16, 7 or 16, $900 gold target by end of 2026. But anyway, the market's hot right

now. You can either decide to take your profits and not have to worry about a double top crash,

which is what we saw in 2011 and 1980. Or you could, you could write it out and see if JPMarkins

and some of the other analysts are right. What do you sit? I mean, personally, I'm writing it out

right now because I started buying like, I think April, May of last year when gold and silver

started to break out. So I sold a bunch along the way. I don't have, you know, in my retirement

account, GD, MN is my favorite way to play gold. It gives you exposure to the producers,

the royalty and spot gold. And that's done really well the past couple of years. So that's kind of

a core holding for me. And I just own a block of shares that I won't sell until, you know, gold

loses its trend. And for everybody, like, everybody measures a trend a different way, right?

And that's what makes them market. So some people, it's a 200 day moving average,

you know, it could be a variety of things. So there's not really one

simple answer to that. I'm not trying to dance around it. But I think, I think you need to find

a trading style that fits your personality, right? And if you know that you're not very patient,

then you need to trade a certain way. You know, if you're a value investor and you can sit on

something for a couple of years, because you know, eventually it'll turn around and you can trade

it a totally different way. So I think it's important for people, like, you know, you see all these

people who are trading gurus on Twitter and they have followers and stuff and people get frustrated

and they're like, we can't follow how you trade. It's because your personality doesn't mesh up

with how they trade, right? Like, if we'll go to baseball, say, I'm a powerhitter and I'm trying

to teach you how to hit and you're not a powerhitter, that's not going to work for you. Like, you got

to find the trading style that works for you. And I think that's what's great about our site is

it has a lot of, it has a lot across usage, whether you're an options trader, like we had 87,000

people visit the site last year and we have options traders, we have swing traders, we have day

traders, we have long term traders, like it works for your different style. You just got to know

how to use it right. And I think, you know, you can be the greatest stock picker in the world,

but if you don't have the patience of the discipline, you know, the patience to wait and see to

the upside or the discipline to protect yourself on the downside, like, you could have bought

a volunteer at eight and sold it at 18 thinking it was great and then bought back in at 100 and

gone back to 80. You get what I'm saying? Like, it's all about, I think, managing your risk and

that's a big part of this site is managing where your entry should be because mediocre entries

don't result in great trades, right? Like, you need a great entry to have a great trade.

Kevin, let's talk about Bitcoin. Let's just, we have to, let's apply the same analysis to Bitcoin

and see what you think there. So 69,068 now, we have a scenario that some people say has,

some people say, Bitcoin is a bottomed. And this is the way I see it. So if you just take a look

at 2017, it topped around $17,000 and bottomed out much lower. Now in 2021, it then peaked around

$69,000 and then actually the bottom was $17,000. We're 14,000, around $17,000, which was near

the all-time highs in the last peak cycle, which was bull cycle, which was 2017. So it looks like

we're entering a scenario where every single bottom happens to be at the top of the previous cycle.

Now that's a very simplified way of looking at it. But, you know, if we take this simplistic

evaluation of how Bitcoin's been topping the last two to three cycles, well, the third cycle

to this 2017 is now. And it looks like the current bottom is around $69,000, which happens to be the

bottom or the top rather of the last cycle in 2021. So is this the bottom, you think?

Looking at it, I mean, it's, I think it's trying to form a bottom. I think it's trying to find some

medium. I think it's trying to find some, I would say it has medium support here. And I think

that's part of what's going on geopolitically. Like, I don't see a heavy support here. Like,

if you draw this trend line, it's still, it's sending kind of on long-term support. So I do

agree with that. But, I think the thing that has changed with Bitcoin, and I haven't seen

many people talk about this, is the last time it was kind of in that uptrend, the institutions

weren't involved in it. Does that make sense? Like, now you have ETFs where you have big institutions

buying large blocks of Bitcoin. And I think that changes things because now those institutions

I'll play with leverage. And Bitcoin is kind of already a high-risk asset to begin with. And

I think, I'm not saying I see a margin call coming, you know, today, tomorrow. But those

warning signs I talked about earlier, if those go from yellow to red, I think you're going to see

a lot of selling in Bitcoin because institutions are going to get margin calls. And when those calls

come, you sell what you can. And Bitcoin's a highly liquid asset. So I think, you know, the

sooner this Iran situation wraps itself up, I think the sooner I would have confidence saying

there's a bottom in Bitcoin. Like, I own some, I own ETH, I own all that stuff. Like, I'm hoping

we have a bottom here, but I wouldn't be surprised if, you know, we have another bad down market day.

I think this would flush along with it. Yeah. Well, finally, I want to get your take on the future

of AI. You actually have a book that you can make, show on the screen. It's a very old copy of

Kurt Vonnegut's piano player. Yep. 1952. So I read this in my freshman high school English class. And

what I find interesting with it is it's kind of predicted kind of where we are as a society right now.

And it talks about the need for machines and how it replaces labor. And in the book,

there's a World War III. And I'm hoping this Iran conflict is not World War III because I wouldn't

be good for anybody. But in this society that Kurt Vonnegut talks about, human labor is basically

non-existent. And that's because all the people are at the front lines fighting. So they had to

basically count on these engineers to build these giant machines through these giant corporations

who control everything. And I just think it's kind of interesting that you see AI, you know,

it's role today. And, you know, I think how quickly AI is adapting and the velocity of that change,

I think, is just it's completely unheard of in our society. And, you know, people say AI is a bubble,

or that's a bubble. And I'm personally along both AI and gold because I think that's what

gold is sniffing out is I think the quicker that AI changes things. And it's fundamentally

altering a lot of basic principles in our society right now. And I think the quicker it changes

stuff, the higher gold goes. So I think, you know, I own both, especially in my kind of longer term

retirement account. And I think, you know, it's just an interesting way because AI is deflationary

and then gold is at hedge against inflation. And, you know, you've seen Trump come out and say that

he needs basically to run a hot economy because Doge didn't work and we're trying to inflate

the dead away. So I think it's just a very interesting position to be in when we're trying to run

that playbook, which is kind of an older school playbook with AI being deflationary. And, you

know, you have Elon who knows way more about AI than I ever will. People say, you know, he's making

these crazy claims about the average person not having to work in the near future or four-day work

week or three-day work week. I have no clue if that's right, but there's a non-zero percent

chance of that. So I think you need to factor that in. So I look at gold is, you know, it's a core

holding for me, like I mentioned, GDMN before I own producers and our royalty companies, but I

think I don't think gold's hedging against inflation so much is I think it's hedging against

our inability to adapt as a society at how quick AI is moving. Like, our government, our corporations

are infrastructure, our court systems, like, no one's had to deal with change at this quick

pace. So I think that's kind of the risk I see. And I think, you know, I think owning those

disruptors, like I mentioned DRT, like that's been a great disruptor in the AI space. So if you can

partner that disruption with something like gold and gold's done really well, I think you're

creating a really interesting portfolio. And that's what's worked really well for me. And that's

why I had such a great year last year. But I don't think I think people see the debate is you

got to be either team gold or team AI. And I think they actually both complement each other very

well. But it's interesting how they're both complementing each other really well. Because AI

represents the next wave of humanity, whereas gold has been a form of money for the last 5,000

years. So you've got a confluence pun intended of the old and the new happening right now.

Why would I think that you would want to be in digital assets or some sort of digital currency

as AI becomes the new norm? In other words, the new with the new. But you're saying that you're

picking a really old school asset partner with a really new wave idea. I mean, how do you explain

that to somebody who doesn't understand finance here? Yeah. I mean, I think, I mean,

I think that's part of the reason Bitcoin sold off to you, right? Is I think people are betting

on AI even disrupting Bitcoin and you can't disrupt gold, right? It's just the fundamental asset you

can't mass produce anymore of it. It's whatever is created and whatever we've mined and smelted and

haven't bank vaults. That's what's out there. And I just think, I don't know. I mean, I think gold's

always going to have a place and you talk about, you know, the bricks of the world trying to change

a petrodollar system. Like you have all these different things that are trying to change right now.

And gold just that fundamental thing that doesn't change. But again, I think, I think part of

what gold's picking up is the potential disruption of AI and the deflation that it could cause

because our society can't adapt quick enough, right? Like we, US government gridlocked on everything.

It hasn't been able to pass anything. President just pushes through executive orders. That's

both sides of the aisle. Our court system, you know, it takes a month to even hear a case,

then you got to try a case, then they meet, talk about it. I mean, the tariff thing took forever.

And for a while, that was a big overhang on the market. It was people weren't sure if they're

going to win or lose. And then I got priced in. They're going to lose. And then now you've got

the appeal. Like you just, you have so much uncertainty. That's, personally, I, you know,

disruptors in tech have always done well. So I bet on the disruptors. And then you have gold,

which is kind of just the fundamental thing. So I think if you build a portfolio and you build a

little bit of both, it's just, it's two different ways to play the same outcome in my opinion.

So in piano player, the author of on a good is predicting that at some point in the future,

we're going to have basically two classes of humans. We've got engineers and managers at the top,

the engineers at the computers and the automated factories and the robots. And then everybody else

basically left jobless, unemployed and alienated from the rest of society and feeling really

purposeless. So two part question. One, do you think that's actually where we're headed? And

number two, if so, wouldn't you want to be short companies that are heavily reliant on human

labor, whatever industry that may be? Yep. One, I think yes. I think that's kind of what the

experiment is with UBI, the universal basic income. I think that's why chat GPT open AI,

like Dave experimented with some of this and their experiment from what I read didn't really

go that well because I think a lot of people's self-worth is tied up with their job. And if you

just sit home all day in the government or whoever that may be in that situation gives you money,

I don't know how filling that is as a human being. And then the second part, I think,

I think the part Veronica got wrong with the book is I think there's always going to be companies

who are going to have to dig out this stuff, right? I think I'm long, a lot of critical minerals,

REMX, a lot of those different plays because we're going to need those critical components to make

the AI. Because without it, it doesn't work. And I don't think I don't know mining engineering

well enough, but I think there's always going to have to be people using the machines to go down

there and get it out at least for the time being. And I think part of that is we have all these

missiles and all these different things that we're using on Iran. But I think the question

of Trump is eventually at some point we probably got to send somebody in on the ground to really

finish it off. And that I think is spooky to the markets and I have friends in the military. So I

hope that's not the case because I want them to be safe. But I think they're off topic. But just

curious, what are your friends in the military saying about the situation? So I had a couple of

friends couple weeks ago told me that this is this is going to be a real thing. This is ramping

up and it's going to happen. What I've heard is I think the plan is I think they're trying to

arm the Kurds in northwestern Iraq. I think from what I've read the CIA has been doing that. And I

think we're going to try to have them do the hard part for us. I have no clue. I'm not a geopolitical

expert. So I have no clue if that's a good thing or a bad thing. I know we help them in northern

Iraq multiple times. But I don't believe our record with the Kurds has been stellar. So hopefully if

we do support them, we do the right thing by them. But my friends in military don't see this ending

in the short term. And I know Trump keeps saying that. But I could see this going

away. Unfortunately, until the US market stock market can't handle it anymore. That's been the

driving force behind Trump. I think he views his overall record is tied very closely to the economy.

And in his mind, I think the economy is a stock market. So I think those indicators, as I said before,

if they all flash red and the market starts flushing, I could see Trump push for the end of the war

a lot quicker than if we keep having updates. I think, unfortunately, I think I've seen

Polymarket and Calche betting. Is it September, October? I mean, I'm hoping it's quicker than that.

But I think Iran's pretty stubborn and they're pretty upset. So I don't think they're going to

just unconditionally surrender like Trump's rooting for in the short term.

Well, I hope you're friends. The military are safe. And I hope this isn't escalating beyond

beyond what's already happening. So let's see what happens there. But to finish out the conversation,

if we were to have a scenario which plays out like piano player in the book, what industries would

benefit, you think, from a disruption in the labor force? In other words, is a scenario in which

basically all companies get a boost in margins because human capital is cut out. And you have just

fewer, fewer amount of people in this workforce producing the same level of output. Or there's

certain industries you think that would benefit more than others. I mean, I think you always have

winners and losers. But I think, you know, painting with a broad brushstroke here, earnings would

get better. And that's kind of what drives the corporate machine, right? Is earnings per share and

revenue guidance? Like if you don't have as much headcount that's less compensation, you got to pay

that's less payroll taxes, you got to pay that's less benefits, you got to pay out for health care

and retirement and other stuff. So I think, you know, the disruptors and the infrastructure that

supports those kind of companies. So like, you know, I like to trade ETFs because they're liquid

diversifies your risk. Like I'm long AIPO, which is AI infrastructure play. I'm long grid, which is a

US infrastructure play out. I'm long paved, which is a similar play to that. So, you know,

he makes those in with gold with, you know, critical mineral stuff. Like that's the way. I've kind

of positioned my portfolio here, both last year and still this year. Because I think they go hand

in hand, right? Like you need the infrastructure to be able to support that innovation. And Trump's

really pushing to bring all that back here. And I don't know what the timeline is. I don't know

how successful it's going to be. But I think in the short term, there's opportunity there for the

trading, you know, side of things. And, you know, it's the more things that get disrupted,

they'll always be a group of winners. And I think it's just really important to, you know,

stay open-minded and not, you know, volunteer might be a great company 10 years from now. I have

no clue. They could go to zero. Like there are certain people who are calling them a bubble and

they epitomize everything that's wrong with modern day accounting. I have no clue. But

if the chart tells me they're not trying to look good, I'm going to trade it as long as the chart

looks good. And when the chart doesn't look good, I'll get out, go on to the next sticker.

All right, Kevin. Let's end it here. Good introductory call. Thank you. Where can we learn more

from your work and follow you? Yeah. So it's stocktay.com. We got a YouTube channel where I try to do some

either monthly videos or weekly videos. It's just at stocktay. We have a stub stack called at stocktay,

where I just kind of point out interesting charts. But please come check out our website. And you

can sign up and create an account for free and get access to all the premium tools. And yeah,

we look forward to you joining our community. All right. Well, we look forward to people signing up

to Kevin's platform. Link down below. So follow Kevin there. Thanks, Kevin. Good to meet you. We'll

follow up again soon. Take care for now. Take care. And thanks for watching. Don't forget to like

and subscribe and use my code. Don't forget to use my code in the link in the link down below

or scan the QR code when you trade on Kowshi. Remember, by using my code, new traders will get $10

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