Market Repeating 2022; Nothing Is Safe In Next Financial Crisis Warns Trader | Chris Vermeulen

0:00We're at a really critical turning point. If it drops to this level, I would expect a bounce, a significant bounce. Not only is it a Fibonacci level, but if we just kind of was to box this zone and you'll notice it's a very significant pivot. I definitely wouldn't be shorting oil. The price of oil really consolidated. It's held its ground and now it's trying to make another run. Listen, I think we're gonna see at least the 30 to 40% pullback in silver. I think we're gonna see a big 20 plus percent pullback in gold. All the signs are there. This Monday, March 30th and stock markets are rebounding on the announcement that President Trump and his team in Iran are still negotiations. The Dow jumped 300 points and the S&P 500 is up about 35 basis points. Meanwhile, gold is also up. One percent, Bitcoin is up 1.5%. And oil, WTI crude, is still trading near $100 back towards $100. Chris Fremulin, chief markets strategist at the technicaltraders.com, joins us once more. He warns us that the markets have reached a critical turning point.

1:02And indeed, notwithstanding today's rebound, the S&P 500 is off to its worst start to the year since 2022. So is this the beginning of another 2022 style crash when the markets retraced down by the order of 30 to 40% and everything goes down. All assets go down and it's just a terrible time for the 60 to 40 portfolio. We saw that in 2022. Are we about to see that again this year? Chris is gonna cover this and much more today. This video sponsored by Kowshi, it's a fully regulated platform that lets you trade on real world events from economic data to political outcomes. Sign up and use my code, Lynn L.I.N. the link in the description or scan the QR code here. New users will get $10 deposited to your account when you trade $10. Traders can put money down on the favorite teams, events, elections, and more in all 50 states, including California, and Texas, and over 140 countries. Chris, welcome back to the show. Good to see you again. Thanks for having me David. Always a pleasure. We missed you. The market's missing. So it's good to have you back. Last time you were on a couple of weeks ago. Now lots has happened since last year on oil has been top of mind for investors all

2:05around the world. Now countries around the world are actually witnessing an oil shortage. I'm not talking about the U.S. I'm talking about countries in the Asian region in particular. The Philippines, for example, declared a national state of energy emergency Australia and New Zealand are equally feeling the pinch. And so oil, naturally, WTI has spiked since we last spoke now at $99 a barrel. I'm going to start with this piece of news today. So the Dow is up because this is from CNBC. The Dow is up 300 points this morning as Trump says he's in serious talks to end the operation in Iran. Meanwhile, he's also threatened to take a car to Ireland and bomb Iran's oil. Both fields of the trade of hormones is not opened immediately. So how do we trade an environment where markets are whipsawing every single day depending on whether or not Trump is making an announcement that he's in talks with Iran?

3:07That seems to be the current environment. Yeah. I mean, there's definitely oils got the spotlight. I think that's a big chunk of driving the market. High oil pricing is going to put pressure on consumers. We tend to see oil go up, stocks kind of go down. If oil goes up, we've got inflation worries. We've got yield rising concerns. And of course, I could send the bond market sharply lower, which they've already had a big drop. As oil spiked, we've seen bonds go in the opposite direction. How do you trade it? I mean, you definitely need to be an aggressive and active trader. You should be day trading it. It should be momentum trades. This is pretty much a landline. So you got to be extra cautious position sizing should be small just because something is moving big doesn't mean you put on a huge position and try to make a grand slam and change your lifestyle with one big trade. Unfortunately, that's what so many traders unfortunately do. But you really do need to focus on position sizing because at any point during the day or

4:07you'll wake up the next morning, it could be dramatically against you. And so that is one of the big risks in this headline driven market. So I mean, I think you've got to focus on the short term price action and just know that, hey, this is active trading. This is a higher risk trade than normal, I believe, just because it's every day something's happening in the news that seems to move the market. And you just got to take it one bar at a time and don't look too big in the big picture. I think you've got to actively trade this because we can have a huge move one day and it's given back the next. When political news move the markets on a day to day basis and you don't know what these political news items are going to be. Are there specific positioning strategies that you take that would basically hedge yourself in either direction? Basically, you're kind of, when you think about it, the entire market is like an options play on, let's say, or earnings release on the stock. You don't know how the earnings report is going to look exactly after market hours. And so you position yourself both ways for the volatility, right?

5:08Yeah. So we've done that, but our position isn't what most people's position is, right? So about a month or so ago, we moved out of, we moved out of the equities market, so we flat. When the market gets like this, when it is like the stock market, for example, is trendless, like really it traded sideways in a range, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, pretty much from the October highs. It's been like six months of just noisy chop. And when the market does that, you want to step aside. And so that's what we did quite a while ago. I mean, we actually exit at our gold and silver when positions, when their silver was up at one 13 gold was well over 5,000. And when the market was giving all of these signals, that's when we took action. And so all of this noise that's going on right now, we are completely side stepping it. We're watching it from the side. We're just collecting daily interest safely as a position because we don't want to get involved with our portfolio in this type of noise. Now, there is opportunity, obviously, if you're aggressive active trader, but as an investor,

6:09somebody looking to protect their capital, who just wants consistency, they don't want to wake up every morning, you know, hoping and praying. The market didn't move against them because this market right now is very dangerous. We got the S&P 500 breaking down from what looks to be a topping pattern. The NASDAQ is doing the same. We've got the dollar index trading at the 100 level on the verge of breaking out and rallying. If the dollar breaks out, that probably means we're going to see pressures metals sell off. We're going to see equities crashing. So we're at a really critical turning point. And the best position and as a kind of a large investor trying to manage your wealth and your lifestyle, really is to just sidestep this. Don't get caught up in the news. Don't think you need to trade this. This is, to me, should be watched from the chair, just watching through the screen, not actually diving in and trying to pull money out through this type of volatility. It's just not my style. You know, it works for some, but that's not what I focus on. Okay. Can you please pull up a chart of the S&P 500?

7:09And I want to show you something. The S&P is down about 7% year to date since the beginning of the year. This has been one of the worst years from a start of the year standpoint on record. In fact, this has been the worst start of the year for the S&P 500 since 2022. When we saw a similar pattern with the stock markets falling, basically all throughout the year. It topped in early 2022, late 2021, and then it just kept falling. Is this the beginning of another 2022 when you just look at the pattern? Yeah. I think it is. What we're seeing right through this kind of blue box zone, right through here, we're getting almost identical sentiment and money flows happening here. So the very, very same momentum is running out. We're starting to see all kinds of chaos. Sentiment is shifting. Money is flowing away from stocks.

8:10So we're in a very similar situation. And that's what I think people need to be aware of is you never know which one is going to turn into a, you know, it could take two years. It could be a year long sell off in a year to recover, or it could be like a 2000 and an eight. It could take multiple years to recover, five, six, seven years to recover. We never know which one of these pullbacks is just a quick pullback and for it to recover. But when we look at the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, I mean, we've got this really critical support level right through here, which it is clearly broken down. And the market's gone from a series of making higher highs and higher lows to now. It's got a very strong sell off. I do feel like the market's oversold. I think we could, we could see the market whenever it finds the bottom here, we're going to see some type of knee jerk reaction bounce back up. Just like how the market makes a series of higher highs and higher lows, once it breaks to the downside, it kind of flips scenarios. And the NASDAQ has kind of been a leader in this space in terms of it breaking down.

9:12It somewhat has broken down as well and more so a little bit beforehand, but it's breaking down. And this is a big powerhouse, you know, along with the Magnificent 7, which have broken down a lot sooner. So I think people need to be aware of this. What we're seeing here is very similar to the 2022 peak. And the question is, you know, is it just a baby bear market, something where we correct for a little while and recover or is it the start of something uglier? And that's what we just always need to be prepared for. I talk about it all the time. I'm very bearish on this market. It doesn't mean we're betting on falling prices. We're actually just, you know, watching it stepping aside, we got out of the market over in this area. And we're just letting it unwind and eventually we'll be playing in versus ETFs. When this does give us opportunity, we'll be betting on falling pricing because that's a great way to pull money out of the market. But we definitely want to be confirmed in a bear market. We want to see the trend being down. In 2022, the Fed's raising rates, their tightening policy was probably the main catalyst

10:12for a market decline, a broad market decline, not just stocks, but gold medals, bonds as well. It was just a bad year for a 60, 40 portfolio. What could be the catalyst this year, Chris, for continued downward momentum? Yeah. I think there's going to be a lot of pressure from two things. I think one of the deeper underlying ones, I think will be actually the AI space. I think it's going to be rewriting a lot of business models. It's going to undercut a lot of businesses whoever doesn't bring AI in is going to get left behind. They're going to be AI rich companies are going to be able to operate at a much lower rate, very efficient and potentially undercut other players or just excel with better products and add more value and provide things that people need. I think that's deteriorating. We've seen that in the software space, it's definitely hit very hard, but I think we're going to see AI and robotics be a huge shift that's going to, I think, reset and cleanse the market. I think that's going to be one big player. The other one more near term is, I think, is crude oil.

11:14When we look at the price of oil, I think this could be one of the big, one of the big resets that could spark what's happening. If we look at oil and we look at the significant low here, we look at this spike high and this pullback, using a Fibonacci extension, now I find this tool is extremely accurate. There is potential for oil to go to about 140. I know there's people calling for 200 oil, all that stuff. Based on the chart pattern right now, the first major level is 140 and so that is going to obviously wreak havoc across the board. That's a 37, 38% move to the upside. I think energy stocks could benefit from this. I think they might want to, they might be able to move higher. Obviously this is going to dramatically hurt everyday investors. Just at the pumps here, we almost had $2 a liter, just down the street from where I am, which is extremely high. I don't know what that works out to be in gallons for the US, but I think it's probably almost

12:16the highest, if not the highest price we've ever had. I believe this whole issue here is actually just getting started. If oil prices go up, we're probably going to see stocks tick down. It's just going to burn a hole in people's money. Any excess cash they have is going to start going through to fuel costs. Inflation is already through the roof, imagine having to pay for this fuel to generate products, bring products over all of that stuff. I think oil is the most imminent kind of direct correlation. If oil pops and rallies here, it's going to hurt the stock market. It's going to hurt the bond market. I think it's going to get absolutely hammered. Definitely, as you mentioned, David, in 2023, 22 to 23, it was terrible for the buy and hold investors of the 6040. If you hold stocks and bonds, you are going to get hit on both sides, and I think you're going to get absolutely beat up. I did a video on this the other day on my YouTube channel talking about the devastation we could go through and how interest rates could spike dramatically. The average investor is going to just get absolutely pummeled here, right?

13:18They can't afford it time-wise. They don't have the time to make it back. We could go for a big reset. Oil to me is kind of the kingpin. On the sidelines, protecting your capital, protecting your wealth. If you can earn 4% without any risk in a minefield of market movements right now and news you just can't predict whatsoever, I think it's one of the best plays right now. It's not about making a lot of money. It's about protecting what we have because we're on the cusp of something pretty ugly. Well, would you be short oil right now? Let me just pull up this particular trade from Kowshi. It's a prediction market. It's based in the US when the largest traders are predicting gas prices in the US this month. So 97% believe above $3.98 a gallon. This is in US prices, and I think the consensus is that prices won't change much. Until the end of the month, at least, which is next in 30 days, we're already at the end of...

14:24Well, this one is for $4 on March 31st. Let me pull up something else for a farther out forecast, but I don't want to get your take on oil first, and then I'll post something on it. Yeah, I definitely wouldn't be shorting oil. When we saw this great big spike a couple of weeks ago, it definitely looked like a top and candle. But the market, the price of oil really consolidated. It's held its crown, and now it's trying to make another run if anything, I would be long oil here. I mean, we're not in an oil energy position right now, but the trend is up. The pattern is bullish, and the chaos, I don't think, is coming to an end. And we keep hearing like there's talks, but all I seem to hear is there's more threats and more takeovers wanting to happen. So you don't want to fight the trend. Because the trend for oil is up, shorting it right here to me is a higher risk plan. I think you're better to own it than short it. So here's one with a longer term outlook, how high will U.S. gas prices get this year

15:25above $4.40, which is higher than most in most jurisdictions right now? Seems to be the consensus forecast. Chris, what happens when oil stays very high? Walk us through what happens with the rest of the capital markets. You already talked about what happened to consumer spending, logically, yes, people have less money to spend on other things as a whole in the pocket is burned through by paying for more oil. I get that. So what happens to capital markets when that sequence of events occurs? Yeah, well, we saw this kind of back, you know, during the last major reset, we saw that every time oil would tick out back in the early 2000s, we'd see the stock market go in the opposite direction. It was very related. I mean, I used to own and run an importing business. We used to bring everything in from overseas, container loads, and I'll tell you, energy pricing is a huge factor, not only for transportation, which everything is shipped obviously, but oil is used, petrol is used for every product. It's crazy.

16:25And so if it spikes up or there's delays, you can't get it, it really is just going to wreak havoc through more expensive pricing. Obviously, once products can't be produced because they're missing out on it, then whatever it is an inventory, people just, the store owners jack the price up, just like oil. The second there was talk of of war unfolding, the gas pumps spike the price, not like it cost them more yet, but they're already starting to gouge and prepare for it. So through the whole, you know, if oil prices go up, everything around the world pretty much goes up in pricing. And when it goes up, people have to spend more money to do the same things, which means they have less to invest, they have less to buy stuff, you know, discretionary products or whatever it is and travel and all that, those things. So just higher oil pricing just puts a squeeze on everybody. Now there is a big delay between producing products and the end user. So if it holds up for a while, it's going to do a lot of damage versus a spike. A spike won't be too bad, but, you know, really oil would need to drop in the next month or

17:30two, and we need to see the, you know, the traffic will straight get opened back up again or, or we're going to start to see, I think inflation creep up and investors are going to start or consumers are going to start closing their wallets and cutting services and costs. I mean, we're already seeing it, but it's going to be even more and then earnings drop and then, you know, investors start to sell off stocks because they see the momentum stalling. It's a huge, huge long cycle that unfolds, a blip in oil is not bad, but over a couple or two or three months, it starts to create issues. Chris, would you be long oil companies right now? I know you're bearish in the stock market, so for all, but what about the oil sector in particular? Yeah, the oil sector has done really well. I mean, we did trade it a few months ago with our band strategy. The best asset now is it was starting to emerge. We played that. We got in and we got out. We hit our targets and had our strategy there. We're not long it. Yeah, you could be long. Here's the thing though, as you just mentioned, the stock market is technically in a downtrend.

18:30It's not favorable to hold stocks. If the tide of the ocean is going down, you shouldn't expect your boat to stay up. Usually most boats or most stocks go down when the stock market goes down. Now, there'll always be that needle in the haystack. What stock, what sector is bucking the trend? The energy space is that. It's very difficult to know which one is going to be until it's already happened. You could be long energy stocks. I kind of feel like they're, they've had a big run. I feel like they're becoming the crowded play. I think we could take a look at the XLE, for example. If we look at the XLE chart, you can see it's had a huge run moving to the upside. I think there obviously is more potential, but this, to me, feels a little bit overdone. I'd be looking for some type of pause or pullback before I get long. I don't like to buy into something that goes quite this strong to the upside. I'm not a big fan of buying stocks when the stock market is going down. At any point, the one sector leading the way, bucking the trend, could fall in line with the rest of the stock market.

19:31When it is a news-driven move like this, these big rallies can be wiped out in days. They do carry that elevator risk. It takes a staircase up in the elevator down. You've got to be aware that trading these stocks is just like the energy oil space. At any point, there could be a massive red bar. Everybody's been trading energy stocks. Everybody I think is piled in. When the news changes direction, it's going to be a mass exodus and a huge, probably set of red bars to the downside. I want to come back to stocks. Chris will get your outlook on key levels for the S&P 500 to watch for the next coming months. Before that, we're going to jump into precious metals. Write down in the comments below what you think. Chris is going to say in regards to the outlook. Let's get some discussion there. Chris, I think one of the themes that happened or have been popular on the internet since you last came on the show was that gold is no longer a safe haven play.

20:32Let's pull up a chart of gold, and I'll show you what I'm talking about. Gold has been acting pretty much like a NASDAQ or S&P extension. Moving in lockstep with stocks, moving down when there's bad news with Iran and moving up when the opposite happens, when there's good news. Like today, for example, when Trump has announced that there's more negotiations with Iran, so the point is gold is not doing what a lot of investors would expect to do for a traditional safe haven asset, which is actually hedge against equity volatility. Its volatility is moving in lockstep with stock market volatility. Can you comment on this? Yeah. Gold has been doing what it should do for the last several years. It's been going up. Tensions have been rising. Things have been looking more bleak, and that's why we've seen both gold and silver moving higher. Now, the typical scenario when it comes to the stock market or investing in general, it's like by the rumor sell the news.

21:32I think gold has been moving up with anticipation of all kinds of things falling apart. War kicked in. I mean, I think we went into this capitulation top. The gold did what it was supposed to do, but now we've hit this tipping point where I feel like it's put in a significant high, and now it's going to start moving with the stock market. This is the fear of the stock market sells off, then we're probably going to see precious metals sell off. This is what I've talked for a long time is nothing is not many things are safe when we go into a financial crisis or a bear market. We are seeing, I think a lot of people got rattled on this move. A lot of people who have held through here, they're really starting to panic and feel the pain, and now we're just seeing it move like the stock market, because I think the safe haven play is somewhat moved out. There's so much volatility. It doesn't feel that safe anymore, and it looks like it's got a pretty major top in the price action. Now, if we use Fibonacci extension, just based on this initial drop and this bounce to

22:34the upside, we can see that gold ended up hitting our target. And I'm not sure if you and I, yeah, we talked about this a long time ago. These are inside bars. We have this big red bar, and then all of these days coming all the way up to the top, and I talked about how this is a bearish price pattern. If it gets rejected at the top of this bar, look out below because it's going to sell off and it's going to want to come down to the 618 or this previous low and down to the 100% measured move, and that's what it's done. So right now, gold to me is in this, to me, short-term wise, it looks like it has put in a major top. I don't want to hold it. We got out way up here before that drop, but now it could potentially build a giant bull flag here. And who knows? Maybe it takes a year. And then, of course, if it starts to break out and it shows signs, then you definitely want to get long and catch that next move up. But what we don't want to do is hold on to something that clearly shows it has run out of steam that is not the play that everybody, that it used to be.

23:38It's not that safe haven play right now. And it could actually unwind and come on down a whole lot lower. We could see 3,600 fairly easy and gold, I believe. So right now, we are in this posmode, and I mean, I was with you and V-Rick and Vancouver, when these prices were spiking, I mean, I was on the panel saying, like, listen, I think we're going to see at least a 30 to 40 percent pullback in silver. I think we're going to see a big 20 plus percent pullback in gold. All the signs were there. I was talking to people on the floor that had never bought metals before, and they had just bought silver, like one tan and all this stuff, or a 106 or 108. And so when all these signs are there, you got to be cautious. And then prices now confirm that. So my view on gold right now is it's not a trade. It's just let it mature. Let it build a pattern. And if it collapses and goes into a huge sell-off, it'll become an amazing buying opportunity because long-term, I am extremely bullish on precious metals, all the fundamental data,

24:40all the economic data, everything going on. The central banks is the most bullish sign ever, but it doesn't mean prices going to just keep going up. We'll have these corrections. So we just need to let gold figure itself out, and you're right. When we have broad market selling, it will move with the price of the stock market. And that's why a bear market is broad market selling. It's everybody's scared, everybody's selling everything. And that's the phase that gold and silver are in right now. So I think if you're a long-term gold investor, you either have to ride out more of a roller coaster or you just got to give it time, and it will recover, but it might still take a long time. The price pattern that we have is actually very similar, especially in silver, to what we saw in 2011, where everybody thought metals were going to the moon, and then it took 10 years to come back. It's sold off. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but you definitely don't want to waste two, three, five years waiting for metals to come back when you could move somewhere else and not have to watch your account go down. You could potentially buy it at a lower price or buy it later as it's starting to go higher

25:44so that you can just catch the upswing and not have to ride the wasted time in the roller coaster. When you, let me just show my screen. Sure. Real quick, if you have something like this, this is gold and copper moving in lockstep together. These two assets have not historically moved so closely together as we are seeing right now. By right now, I mean over the last year and especially over the last couple of months. I know this is a broad market sell off, and when metals start moving together, does that say something bigger in the economy where perhaps markets are large? I'm not sure. I don't follow copper too closely. If I think when things start moving together, it more so just means everything is part of the same tide. And if the masses are naturally getting more worried and they're selling, it means they're all going to move together. To me, it's a bearish line. We should be seeing gold go higher and stocks go down, but I think we're maybe already past that point. And now actually people are just like, I don't know what's going on.

26:47And the charts of both gold and silver are those topping patterns they put in are pretty scary. I mean, that's quite the noise, quite the volatility. It's not a good sign. And so I think people have just turned the page. I think they've gone from, a lot of people have gone from precious metals are the play to now they're like, I'm kind of scared to get in. And if you look at the volume on silver and stuff like that, it's just dry right up. Nobody's interested in silver anymore. And if you take and sell your silver at like a pawn shop or something like that, they don't want it. Every pawn shop is full of silver. I don't know exactly what that means, but it definitely means people just don't want silver at this point. And the volatility's got people shaking up. So even if somebody hasn't gotten into gold and silver right now, he should probably stay out. Is that what we're talking about? I believe. I mean, it doesn't matter. Like so many people always think you got to buy low. You know, you can buy high and you can buy higher. So, you know, if the market rallies from here, then it starts to break out to new high

27:47highs. You can just jump in and buy it. Even at an all time high, it's still going to have a massive potential rally. The next big leg from this potential bull flag pattern that gold is forming is huge. So who cares if you pay a higher price? But what I try to avoid is I try to protect our portfolios so they don't go down in value substantially. And so that we also don't waste years. Like if gold and silver take a year and a half to go sideways, not only are you going to not make any money, it costs you money to store it. Every day you've got the stress of hoping and praying. They don't keep collapsing where you could just step aside in a cash position, which is the most boring position ever. But you could still make your 4% every year and dramatically outperform holding medals. And then just jump in the medals when they start the next rally. I like to be involved with something that is on the run. I don't want to hold something chopping around that shows signs of weakness, which is what the precious metal space is showing right now. What about stuff like this? Let me show you the CNN fear and greed index, which is currently at extreme fear.

28:50I was surprised when I pulled this up just now. I thought it would be maybe leaning more towards neutral, especially on a day like today when the markets are rebounding. But extreme fear is what they have. It's an amalgamation of a few technical indicators. Are you seeing extreme fear flashing on your dashboard based on the trackers that you follow? Chris? No, we're actually not seeing extreme fear. Yeah, that greedy index will kind of gauge probably a different group of people. But based on how I follow with my sentiment tools and indicators, we're not seeing actually real big panic selling just yet. There's no doubt the market looks oversold. But I think the market is ready for a bounce, but we're not seeing full on panic selling at this point. We haven't seen it in a little while. And I think the stock market could have maybe another leg down, another big red bar or two to the downside. And I think that will be just enough to trigger some panic selling. I mean, I follow very short-term levels that fear index is probably looking more so at swing traders and investors.

29:52I look at more or less intraday spike levels because that's actually what to me gives me the most imminent. Okay, this looks like a pivot low today type of thing. But we're not seeing, I don't think panic fear just yet. When something does move into the extreme level, one way or another fear or greed, is that usually a contrarian indicator for you? Yeah. So for example, if the trend is down and then we see FOMO buying on the charts, meaning people are piling in, they're buying stocks, that usually is an indicator that the stock market is going to probably sell off. So if the trend is down and we have these waves of FOMO, so let me just share my chart. I'll kind of give you a visual here of what that looks like. So here we've got the, and I like to look at the 30-minute chart for this, which is the left hand chart. So this is the 30-minute chart of the NASDAQ. When the bars are red, that's telling us the short-term trend is down. Easy way to do that is really is price under the 20-day moving average is the 20-day moving

30:55average sloping down. That is the most basic way to get an idea of a swing trading trend. But I have this red indicator here, and this is FOMO buying. When people jump in and they buy stocks, and we see this FOMO indicator jump over this blue line, which is a ratio of three, which is three buyers, three people hitting the ask to every one person buying on the bid. So three times more people just willing to buy. They don't care what price they pay, they're just saying, get me in, I'm missing out. The market has huge pouts up, I'm getting left behind. And so when we get these, there's this spike level of FOMO, it usually is a significant indicator that the market is going to pull down short-term, only for a day or two. We had it again over here, hit our threshold. People market gaped up, everybody piled in, they felt like the market was putting in a bottom, and then it sold off. And so this is the type of a fear indicator that I use. This is a very short term, this is fear of missing out. We also have when the market is like in an uptrend, if we were to kind of go back, let's

31:58go back to an uptrend here. We go back to an uptrend, we'll have the opposite. We'll see these spikes of panic selling, which is the fear index, you're looking at this as more of that type of fear, fear of losing money. And then we tend to see the market put in a very significant low, usually after a big spike of panic, it usually bottoms out the next day. So we have this, and then the market wants it to rally. And then we have another wave of panic. And you get the panic, it carries over to the next day, and then you get that rally. So these are the short term fear index that I look at, fear of losing, fear of missing out, and the market just ping pongs around through all of this. So I don't remember what your question was exactly, but these are the types of fear I'm looking at. And if we were to just fast forward to today, we don't have any fear at this point yet of any sort. The question is basically if technical trends or indicator show extreme fear or greed in basically extremes of either direction, does that indicate to you that something is

33:00either overbought or oversold? And generally speaking, I guess the question would be if something is overbought and oversold at that particular moment, do you do the exact opposite? Right. So a good example of that is it really depends on the type of trader you are. So for example, if the trend is down, if the trend is down and we see panic selling, that is usually mean the market is going to want some type of short term bound. So if the trend is down, you should be shorting the market, profiting from pricing going down. When price sells off and has a huge sell off and you see panic spike up, you should be covering your shorts. You should be trimming off some of it, lock in some gains, and then boom, you can re-enter a position when you have FOMO. So in a downtrend, you want to re-enter shorts when there's FOMO. You want to enter a short here, enter a short here, over here, and play these quick drops. In an uptrend, you don't really care about FOMO, you're looking for panic selling.

34:01In an uptrend, when you have a sharp drop and you see a spike in panic when everybody's ejecting out of their trades, that's when you buy the dip. And then when you get FOMO, when the market pops and everybody's covering, that's when you trim off some of your, you buy the sell off and then you sell the rip. You buy the sell the FOMO spike. So you kind of, you don't put on the opposite trades, you just use it to keep working yourself in and out of a position and managing your risk through those waves of oversold, oversold, overbought. And then just how you trade it depends. If the trend is up, you trade it one way, if the trend is down, you trade it the other way. Now let's move on to levels. I promised the audience we would give your levels key levels to watch the S&P 500. So you said we could be looking at a short-term bounce, bounce to where and then what happens after that? Yeah, well, we'll have to see how the bounce moves. Now, when we look at this chart pattern, there's not a whole lot to go off of for this chart pattern.

35:01It's all a fairly conservative type of moves here like this pullback, I mean, we can go back and look at a couple different levels. We can take a Fibonacci retracement saying from this low that we had, where is the first critical support level for the stock market? And the market always likes to pull back about 38%, 50%, or 61. And depending on which one it finds support at, gives us a different probability and a different upside outlook. So right now there is still potential for, this is the S&P 500 to drop all the way down to 6200. It's about a 3.5% drop from where we are. If it drops to this level, I would expect a bounce, a significant bounce. Not only is it a Fibonacci level, but if we just kind of was to box this zone in, you'll notice it's a very significant pivot zone. It was major resistance prior. If it came out, it broke above it, it tested it, and now, you know, it's coming back to this level. So 6200 is critical support.

36:03If it flushes down here, as I just mentioned, a couple more red bars or one big red bar in the market, we'll spike the fear index. The vix will go through the roof. The book call ratio showed up, we'll see my green panic selling indicator spike. And then from there, we'll probably have a significant bounce where the market has a knee jerk reaction. And then the question is, how does it bounce, depending on what it does here, or if it trades sideways and barely bounces, either way, it's going to be a bit seen as a bearish price action, unless it shows a lot of strength, then eventually it could change direction, kick back into an uptrend, and we get long. And then it's reset. It's just cleans the market, and maybe it wants to run for another 5, 10, 15%. Again, nobody knows where it's going. You just have to identify the market characteristics, the trends, the sentiment, and then wait for those opportunities. So at this point, let's just let the market figure itself out, maybe flush a little bit lower, create that bounce.

37:03And then we need to see, is this a bounce that rolls to the downside and sells off again? Or is it going to be a bounce that actually turns into a new trend and shows signs of strength? We won't know. We have the same over here, the market sold off. This was beginning of last year. It put in a bounce and oversold bounce, and then it went off into a huge sell off. Everybody ejected out of the trades, it went into a high volatility move, and then right about here, it turned into a new uptrend. It went from a bounce to a new trend, and we played this move to the upside. And so that's what we just need to wait and see. I know everybody wants to know exactly what is going to happen and what price levels. You really just have to let the charts paint the bars. Each day, we get a little bit closer to knowing which direction, how we can play it. But right now, it's like we just say these things could happen. And until it draws us a picture that we can actually trade where the price and sentiment confirm either a trend to the upside has started or it's peaking out and rolling over,

38:04we don't know until it happens. Okay, Chris, thank you so much. Let's end it here and follow you for more information in the meantime before you come back on next time. So tell us where we can follow you and what we can expect to learn from your work, Chris. Yeah, the best, the best spot is to go to my YouTube channel at the technical traders. You'll, you'll see I do not every day, but I do daily updates and videos on the markets there. I walk through things that I zoomed in level. Also my newsletter, the technical traders.com, you can join the free newsletter there. Stay up to date with analysis and interviews or you can subscribe to my premium newsletter where I manage my portfolio. I share every position that I put on. I actually put the position on the same time as the investors. I only trade my portfolio. I don't dish out trades. I literally just give you the trades that I think are the best to grow and protect our portfolio. And we navigate these markets together, super educational and again, just the technical traders either on YouTube or our domain. All right. We'll put the links down below. Thank you so much for following the technical traders there.

39:04Thank you so much, Chris. We'll speak again soon. Take care for now. Thanks, David. And thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe and use my code Lynn L.I.N. when you sign up to Koushi. Remember new users who use my code will get $10 deposited to your account when you trade $10. That's Lynn L.I.N. Link down below or scan the QR code here.