Markets Now Closes - 9-9-26 Vince Boddicker, Farmers Trading Company

0:00Markets now is brought to you by Pervantseats. There are wins, and then there are wins that you get with Pervantseats. Big game-changing wins that turn heads and make people take notice. Get started at Pervant.com slash Change the Game. Welcome to Markets Now. I'm a shopwork with Vince Vitacra from Restraining Company. Ag Markets mostly lower on Wednesday except for feeder kettle futures. And Vince, let's talk about the greens. We did have a few bullish nuggets to start off the day on Wednesday. But the greens are lower. Was it just simply some risk of profit taking here? Is we're going into this wasty on Friday? I think it's a good possibility and there you know, yes, we did have some nice flash sales this morning on Wednesday morning. But in should look at that the market really doesn't react to that a lot of times just like it doesn't on the export sales. So it's probably just going to be the wasty more than the other thing and just people do certain people or want to take profit before that and say we've had a good. Run let's put it in our pocket. We did see several people come in and put some put options on beans and corn today.

1:06Just in case and that's maybe what you're seeing across the board and adding to some of that negativity. Yeah, when we look at the average trade guesses for Cornield on Friday 178.2 bushels per acre and then stone X came in at 182.9 bushels. Do you think that those were both bearish relative to what the trade is already trading for you? It very well could be you know it feels as we discussed earlier that maybe that 177 is a closer number to what we've been trading. I think the trade is well aware that pro farmer usually comes in substantially less than the USDA had been projecting earlier most years. So you got to go somewhere in between and find that happy medium and another real key probably gets me to that point we need to see those combines around and see where yields come into because with that dry finish. It may have taken more often the trade believes. Well that might be true but it may not show up in the September report right correct. Yes and I'm saying that may take October before you see that.

2:14Yeah, absolutely when we talk about from a technical standpoint. Corn actually held it tested the lows from last week but kind of held here and so do you think that right now the funds are going to continue to defend this record long position that they have in this market or not. You would think they would but again you look at it and coins about 23 cents off of that high and if you're going to get a decent correction and maybe have some sideways trade could you go as much as 28 to 32 off of that you could so you could take a bit more. Don't like to see where we're going to maybe put a situation that lower lows in but if we do and then we pop right back out of there maybe not a big deal. Yeah, let's talk about the average trade guest for soybeans were at 52.5 bushels per acre that's on the Reuters survey stone ex came in at 53 bushels per acre so we aren't expecting much change here in the September was the in terms of soybeans right because it's what too early.

3:17I think so you know we all know how we finish becomes important we've had some dry ones there a few areas have gotten rain so I really doubt USDA is going to pull a lot off of the beans at least until October and by the time we get there we should have lots of beans out never pretty good idea where it's at. For sure but right now it's hard to know how the the areas that God ample moisture are going to be offset by the areas that didn't and had a pretty poor finish and in the northwestern corn belt there was a lot of that wasn't there definitely there's no doubt and we've had some pretty good rains in our area this last week but again so spotty and words at. Yeah and we should mention you are right around Mitchell South Dakota so you have been kind of in the bulls are there some of that dryness having. Yes. So let's also talk about demand we talked about the flash sales this morning 16 million bushels of soybeans fought between China and unknown and China's been a pretty methodical buyer so any pullback here seems to be well supported don't you think in beans.

4:22One would think if China's been buying as much as they have they will continue to do that you know it reminds you more of a normal year in the the beans sales ahead of harvest versus what we saw last year and I think that puts everybody's mind a little bit more these that they should stay there. For sure so one of the headlines that it looks like we got a hold of overnight we was higher because it looked like the rush a port of Nova got bombed or I guess hit by a drone from Ukraine but then today we had another headline that came out basically saying that Moscow is hopeful for diplomatic talks and so the market keeps trading these headlines doesn't it. It does and as we look at it we'd say why do we do that and I think the real answer is the algorithm traders that are out there trading headlines and news stories in their 85 to 95% of the trade out there so they can have huge influence.

5:26Yeah but Vincent how long do we keep trading that straight before the market gets tired of it. You would think you would have been tired of it already but again if it's a slow news day they're going to jump on if there's other things that are more important they probably ignore it. So right now what do you think is holding the wheat market together. I think it's still that black sea region and in the different ports that aren't going and I think there was a new story out this morning again talking about downgrading the Russian exports for this coming year and that's not going to go away anytime soon I think those ports damage you're going to take a long time to fix but do we come back in like lots of other things do we find ways to take it across land in avert some of that stuff for the future. Yeah the outside markets also had an impact on money flow here today you had the Dow or the equity sector lower crude oils backup bumping on some highs that we haven't seen for like three months so that was an impact on the market today too wasn't it.

6:31Definitely and you know the stock market is always something and one has to believe that five six seven months ago when the stock market started to come back you saw some traders come out of the commodities and go back into the stocks and they're probably a little skittish yet but I don't think they're going to make any big exits from that market short term or longer term but short term they may have a few of them taking profits. Let's see what we do yeah did outside market negativity have an impact on the cattle market today I know feeders came back but life cattle were still under a little pressure. It does most of the time it does when it's going down I'm not sure it was huge I think the cattle complex is still one of those of let's build some confidence before we make any big moves and I think they're doing that for so long we had every Friday was putting a little low when we've had a couple of varieties now what we haven't did that so I think it shows a little positive attitude there the feeder cattle side of thing I think in the sale bonus holding up better than the cash back cattle had been so I think that maybe a little bit why we're coming back in and seeing that hold together better than the fed cattle market.

7:43Yeah plus we've been down I think five days in a row in the corn market so the feed price sector is probably part of it too right. It is and I would guess I'm a believer that was cash coins over five bucks I'm not sure it's huge but short term if you got slow news days yes it will impact it. It's a good point okay the cattle market the life cattle futures you said are starting to stabilize here do you think that we put a bottom in with this idea that maybe cash trade has started to bottom and maybe hired this week. I think so last week you were probably steady to a little higher depending on who you looked at who you listen to but I think we're working that way I'm not sure it's going to be a run away it's going to be a slow process coming out of here is as we looked at some historical things last week. You get some years like this where you can actually hold this market down until you get into November before it really wants to take off. Hopefully we're not going to do that that's a couple months out yet but even if we don't put new loads and we're sideways I think we'll be building confidence in helping the market have a better attitude for down the road.

8:50And that attitude is important for getting the funds back in here isn't it. It definitely is it is and I'm just really not sure that you're going to get a lot of that fund activity back in here I think a lot of those came from the stock market and I think they went back in I think for the most part they're going to look at this cattle market is old news easy money's gone and we don't need the risk of whatever individual may be opening their mouth of what the beef market is going to do and what we're at they got better things to do. Yeah I like how you say individual we know exactly what you're talking about there. All right the hog market we did see a little bit of a correction today but that market looks like it's put a bottom in we just kind of continue to struggle to get over these big key moving averages and keep this momentum going don't we. We do you know last week you had the breakout early in the week and now the last four or five days themes to form another sideways pattern which isn't all bad for hogs this time of year seasonally October is a time when you can bottom this and I think we did it early this year but you just may have need some other news and we have right now to move this higher we haven't heard a lot about disease problems and numbers lately and maybe that's what we need to get the next move higher.

10:08Yeah I don't know if the Canadian trade war that we're having has had an impact on hogs or any of the ag sector but what is your thoughts about any possible impact. It definitely can do something it's you know when you look at it there's Canada being our second biggest trade partner it would sure be great if we can get things figured out and do trade is normal so to speak but I think under the current environment I'm not sure you're going to be able to get that done but hopefully they can come to some compromise and not just try to get tariffs for tit for tat as we've been doing here over the past several months. Yeah well it certainly doesn't help the psychology of the market that's for sure all right thanks so much been spot occur with farmers trading company and markets now. You can just picture it the anticipation before the big moment the ban playing be adrenaline flowing the confidence that you're about to hit the field and simply dominate now you know what it feels like to plan a field of bravant seeds because when you choose bravant seeds you're not looking for a simple win you're looking to turn heads and make a name for yourself this is your turf and when you get out there it's sheer domination get started at bravant.com slash domination.