Michael Oren: Israel's historic Iran moment

Israel has never been stronger. Since October 7, 2023, Israel has steadily rolled back its enemies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. A staunch friend of Israel is in the White House, and he might well launch a second wave of strikes on Israel's archenemy in Tehran.

Or is Israel historically vulnerable? None of the adversaries it has taken on since the Hamas invasion are defeated. US President Donald Trump is an ally, but both the Democratic and Republican parties have influential and growing wings that are hostile to Israel, if not antisemitic.

To make sense of this moment, one needs a grasp of military strategy, Middle East geopolitics, and the workings of the US-Israel relationship.

Michael Oren, Israel's former envoy in Jerusalem and a leading Middle East historian, says that the post-October 7 wars represent "one of the greatest military victories in modern history, perhaps in all history." However, it remains to be seen whether Israel can translate the military victories into permanent strategic and diplomatic gains.

On the potential for a US strike in Iran, Oren stresses the importance of missile defense for the US Navy, as Iran's greatest achievement would be the sinking of an American aircraft carrier. He predicts that after Trump issued clear threats and put his reputation on the line, he is not going to back down and leave a legacy that could be compared to that of Barack Obama.

Looking at the future of the US-Israeli relationship, Oren notes that the US is going through domestic processes that Israel has no control over, but often use Israel to score political points. Given those trends, Israel should diversify its diplomatic relationships, but there will never be a replacement for American support.

Oren firmly supports Israel moving off of US military aid, and transforming its relationship with Washington into one of equal partners working together to develop capabilities.

Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.

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