"MIDTERM MONDAY" W/ GUEST CHASE BOWES | UNGOVERNED 3.16.26

Good morning and happy Monday to the Undovenables of Captain Scudio.

We are coming to you pre-recorded today. Obviously it's a big day because I'm also on rumble.com

Slash Von Geno, guest hosting live, the Dan von Geno show, which is surreal. We are

pre-recorded today with a very special guest that I have been very excited to

bring to you and talking about this since mid-November. The great Chase Bose,

he is the founder of Bose Strategy Analytics, a political analyst, a data

guru of phenom in his own right, 98% accuracy rate, and Chase is going to give us a look at an

unbiased, right? He's one of us. You'll see he's wearing an America, his great hat. America's

great again. He's one of us. But when it comes to the data, he's just going to give you the numbers

and what things look like. And if you think it might, you know, it sounds a little negative,

it's not that it's negative. It's just that this is where we are. Sometimes you need to take a

snapshot of where we are to find out what we're doing well and what we can improve on. And that's what

we're going to get today with the great Chase Bose. So we have that interview with you. It's about

45 minutes long and you'll get to know him. You'll get to see what went into, you know, why he does

data now and how he comes up with the conclusions that he comes up with. I think it's great. And

I think you're really going to enjoy it. And if you can give Chase Bose a follow on Instagram at

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slash LFA, and then we'll take you right into the interview with The Great Chase Bose.

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We thank Jeremy and goldencressmetals will be in a part of the show. And now without further ado,

I am excited to introduce you to a local Tennessee in here. I believe brother county,

the great Chase Bose, a met him in November. He is a data guru of phenom in his own right,

a rising star in the space. And he's going to give us an unbiased snapshot here on midterm Monday,

where we stand, what we're doing well, what we're not doing well, what we can change and how things

are looking for the midterm elections just over seven months away without further ado, the great

Chase Bose. All right, ladies and gentlemen, I told you that we were going to have a very special

guest join our show here this Monday morning. It is a midterm Monday. You know that I am a data driven

guy on many, many aspects of what we talk about on the show. I like to dig into polling. We know

that polling isn't a perfect science. We know that it is actually imperfect, which is why it's

important to look at a blend of different polls and to look at those polls through an unbiased lens.

I met this gentleman at a local event back in November. We were talking a little bit. He says,

he's into data. He's into polling and has a 95, I think, plus accuracy rate on some of the models

that he has built. I said, that sounds great. We got midterms coming up. So why don't we work on

getting some midterm previews, polling previews and track some of these, these numbers and some of

this data as we get closer to the midterms. Well, now promises made promises kept. I'm very excited

to introduce you to I'll call him a data guru, even though he may not like that term, data guru.

But I will call him a data guru, a data guy, political analyst, overall great guy. Chase Bose

is with us on on govern chase. I'm very happy to have you on here for our very first midterm

preview in terms of these numbers. Happy midterm Monday to you. And thanks for joining the show.

Appreciate you. Thank you so much for having me on. I really appreciate you giving me

opportunity. Yeah, we're I'm excited. I'm excited to see, you know, exactly how, how much we

can get into today. And this, you know, short amount of time, but we will have many, many more

occasions to talk about the way the midterm elections are shaping up. But we talk about this all

the time. We spoke about this. The first time we met ever, Republicans have a turnout problem.

We have an apathy problem. We have a coming out to vote when Trump is not on the ballot problem.

And then we also have, and I don't mean to be doom and gloom. I'm not saying it's over.

I'm not telling anyone to stay home, throw your hands up in frustration. But what we're saying,

what I'm saying essentially is this, you know, you have all those things working against. You

end the historical trends that work against the party in power when you talk about midterm elections

in the middle of a presidential term. So why don't we start here, Chase? 30,000 foot view.

What does it look like? And I'm not expecting you to pull any punches and guys,

he's got it. He's wearing a hat that says America is great. Okay. I mean, if you sit down with,

with Chase, you'll understand it. He's one of us. But it's important to take off that, you know,

that that lens of bias and just interpret the numbers as we see fit kind of like,

Harriet and on CNN chase a lot better than Harriet and on CNN. But we'll say this, right?

30,000 foot view. What are we looking at? Let's start in the house of representatives overall,

over-encompassing view of our preview of what the midterms could be like this this year.

So the house is a little interesting. This one, of course, he mentioned, you know, the trend of,

you know, the party typically in the power in the White House will typically lose seats.

The last time that the party won seats was 2002, the rally around the flag with effect,

post-9-11. So obviously, that's an extraneous circumstance. We are not favored in the house.

You know, you look at the numbers. We already have a such a thin majority. And the way it looks now,

it's not looking good. But the house is interesting this year because we decided we wanted to have

a gerrymandering fight. So we, we rejrewed Texas. We're threatening Florida, Ohio, North Carolina,

Democratic shooting back, California, Virginia, Utah, potentially Illinois. It's interesting.

You know, you don't see this often. But I think really the way it's come down to, it's,

it's starting to even out, especially if Virginia passes, which, so from now looking at it,

I see the gerrymandering. I see the seats that I'm rating as toss up, which right now is about 33 seats

toss up. And we are not favored right now. I look at my latest forecast is 226 Democrats to 209

Republicans, which is a tremendous change. Not as big as, you know, years like 2018. I don't think

we'll get a big year like that again, you know, just with modern polarization. At least, you know,

the current stage of politics, but still it's not comfortable for Republicans.

Yeah, going into it, I would imagine it's, it's not comfortable just from a history standpoint.

But what goes into the favoring of one party over the other, right? What goes into that number? How

do you arrive at 226? I know you said gerrymandering is a part of the equation. But what else goes into

that? What other factors are you seeing? Is it, you know, I know you've just recently updated

a bunch of your models? Are we, are we looking at turnouts in the 2025 elections? For example,

are we looking at the special election that we just saw down in Georgia? Well, the runoff,

are we looking at some of those other numbers as well? The Texas Senate District, that flip

Democrat, some of the primary numbers in Texas and the Talarico, Crockett, Cornon, Paxton races.

What goes into the formula that you've put together that's been remarkably accurate, by the way?

What goes into the formula that you put together that brings you to that 226 to what was you say?

226 to 209? What goes into that that brings you to that conclusion?

So I still, you know, we both feel the same way about polling, but it's always my first look.

I always look at the polling and I see what that says. I always, you know, I take it with great

assault as I do everything in political data. You can't trust one source. So I always look at

polling like right now I have the generic ballot polling. So we're looking at that. I'm comparing

it to 2022 at the stage, you know, March 2022. Where do we stand? It was about even right now or

a D plus 4.7, which again, it's not comfortable for us. So I start there. Of course, you know,

you mentioned Texas. Texas is a huge indicator, early primaries, huge indicator. When I look at

turnout, when I look at partisan lean, all those things, I see who's actually participating in the

primaries, who's winning the primaries. You know, we had two incumbents defeated in Texas,

Dan Crenshaw and Tony Gonzalez. And so I look at those, I look at the numbers of who's actually

voting. You have to compare it. I compare it to how Trump performed in 24 in these and House

districts. I compare it to their prior results, which for some of them are none, you know, given,

you know, summary district in California, Ohio, potentially Virginia. Some of them, you know,

have redistricted prior or, you know, or so I really only have up to 2022 data right now for

actual 100% accurate performance. So going from there, I look at trends. I look at, like I said,

polling. I consider even most recently, betting odds, you know, you look at Calche, there's a market

for every single House district. So I'm trying to, I'd like to do a 435, like Parly, see if I can get

it right this year. That's not fair. That's not fair because you're, what is your accuracy rate

down? How long have you been trying? 98% across over 1300 races since 2022. By the way, you know,

you share, share a little bit of that data with, you know, your good friend Sean Ferris, you can

share a little bit with Polly Mark, a little here or there. You know, just kind of, it's like,

I feel, I feel like inside of your trading, like Nancy Pelosi, if that happened, right? If you're

like, hey, 98%, look, I'll take those chances. So, okay, so you have a 98% accuracy rating. I'm not

sitting here trying to teach your own horn. You're not doing that either, but it's the true 98%.

How long have you been doing this? How long have you been, first of all, what got you into data

the way you're into it now? Because I've seen your setup. You've got like a thousand screens. You

got like a wall with TVs. Look like, you know, every see like the, like there's like a mall cop or

whatever they have all the screens and they're looking at all the things. This is you with your maps.

So you sent me a picture. You got maps here. You got colors. I don't know what have to stuff is.

It looks like you're a man scientist. I mean, I'm not mad. Definitely a scientist. So this is,

this is actually political science. But let's, let's start from the very beginning, though. I don't

want to get the whole story now. Everyone understands who we're talking to. What, how did you get so

into and focused on and, and good with data? And by the way, how old are you? 20? 21? You're 20 years old.

We can't even get a beer, okay? We can't, we can't tell anybody. But here's the deal, right? So here's,

we won't do that. But here's the thing, right? So how, what got you? I know what I was doing at 20.

I was trying to find alcohol. Like you're doing this data. You know, you're, you're, you're making

these models. You've got screens out the wazoo. You're so heavily interested in. I see you at a

million events locally. You're involved. So like, what got you into the data, the politics side of

the things and, and how long have you been doing it? Let's, let's actually start there. Then we'll

jump back into midterms because I want everyone to understand who we're talking to here. It's the

great chase pose. So go ahead. Yeah. So, COVID, I actually probably, you know, six years ago,

today, Mark, today we were marked out of school for COVID, two weeks. That was the two-week, Anthony

Fauci. And so COVID, when that happened, I was bored out of my mind. I was bored out of my mind.

So I'm like, okay, politics. That's what I'm gonna get into. I was already leaning towards it. I was

starting to pay attention to the 2020 election coming up. And so by November 2020, I pull up 270

to win. And I'm, I'm playing scenarios. I know nothing. I don't know how the states vote. I know

Ohio is necessary. That's what I knew at the time. I knew Ohio and Florida. We needed to win

Ohio and Florida. And we needed to focus the rust belt. That's about the extent of my knowledge.

But still, I remember that night. I'd walk away to do something. It's probably 9, 10 o'clock. I'm

staying up till, however late to watch the results come in as I always do. And I'm sitting here

just running through scenarios in my mind. I'm like, okay, if Ohio wins for Trump, we have a chance.

If Ohio does not go, if Ohio at the time was a bellwether state. And so, you know, if Ohio didn't go,

we were done for. But of course, you know, didn't turn out the way we wanted it to. But from there,

22 rolls around. I start playing with the maps a little more. I start learning. And I'm kind of

just looking at trends. I'm looking at how races are. And so I threw out something like September,

2022. I started playing with it. I just get bored in school and mess with them. And so I did my

first house prediction. This was, of course, every state was redrawn, you know, with the new

congressional boundaries. So I predicted September. And, you know, a lot of people keep in mind

are expecting a huge red wave, which I was looking at. But I didn't predict the correct margin of

222 to 2113 in September. I missed, I believe, 10 seats at that time, five on each side. And then

kind of just gone from there. So 23, I started playing around with actual spreadsheets, you know,

consolidating the data, looking at the numbers. And so I'm from Virginia. The redistricting

there hurts me badly. But I looked at their state legislative elections because they have

those on off here. So 2023, the entire state house 100 seats, 40 seats in the state senator up.

And so I started playing around with spreadsheet mid-October 2023. And just messing around with data,

numbers and all that. And I'd throw out a spit out of forecast for every single race of those,

you know, for all those mid-October 140 for 140. So I did pretty well there. So by here, I'm like,

that's 100%. That is 100%. Yeah. Well, who's count? Pretty good. Yes. So then 24 rolls around. I'm

like, okay, I'm loving this. So every second in school, I have a spreadsheet up. I have political

maps up. I'm a good student. I'm starting a student, but I would always have this stuff in class.

And so my friends thought I'm crazy. And they're like, what are you doing? This isn't going to

matter. And because they, at the time, I was going in engineering. I was in robotics. I wanted

to be an engineer for so long. So like, what are you doing all of this? Go build a robot. Go build a robot.

But then 24 rolled around. I'm in school for mechanical engineering, my freshman year of college.

And 2024. And I'm playing with the election maps every night. I have Fox News on. I'm

procrastinating in my homework to do to do this. And I roll out prediction kind of every month

there on my Instagram. And people are calling me crazy. People are like, he's not going to win Michigan.

He's not going to win Wisconsin. You're calling way too high in the house.

And, you know, then people look at it after election day. And I see my comments filled with

holy crap that students dead on. Nobody, nobody got Michigan. Most people didn't get Michigan.

Right. Right. Right. And I sat there. I remember on election day. I sat there for two hours

convincing myself one way or the other, not in a biased form. But okay, here's my reasoning as to

why. And I can get into more of that later. But so yeah, 100% in the presidential election 24,

I missed one Senate seat, Pennsylvania. Nobody got Pennsylvania. I don't think. Not even the crazy

far, like the, you know, the far right wishcasters were getting Pennsylvania there. And then in

the house, I missed, I believe it was eight seats. I predicted 222 to 213 again and ended up being

220 to 15. Well, I mean close. And so, and so basically you've been doing this. You've been,

you've been kind of dabbling in data since 2020, right? So COVID. And at that point, you went

in totally green. No idea what was going on. That six years ago. So what, so you're telling me now,

six years, you're 14 years old. And you're playing on 270 to win, which I have that app on my phone.

I love that app. During the 2016 election, I was doing that when Trump was winning Florida and

the same thing, Florida, Ohio. And I started playing around. And then, you know, that's somebody

mentioned on on Fox News, Trump's going to win Wisconsin. And I was like, whoa, as long as he wins

the rest of the Romney States from 2012, we're good to go because at the worst case scenario,

winds up in a tie, all the house delegations, the majority of them were Republicans like,

we're going to win. I can't believe we're going to be Hillary Clinton. We started going crazy.

And my dad fired up the deep fryer. We started making wings like it was the Super Bowl. I'm telling

you, it felt great because we're both New York Jets fans. So we don't experience winning very often.

So that kind of felt like the Super Bowl to us. But so you're 14 years old at this point.

And you're playing with 270 to win on your phone, which, you know, most 14-year-olds aren't doing

that. They're probably playing quality duty somewhere or Minecraft or whatever they get Fortnite,

whatever the game is. You're playing 270 to win. You wind up getting really excited and focused

on all this data. You go to 2023, you're in these robotics classes, you're in these,

these, you know, in school, you've got spreadsheets, you've got data up and you're just laser focused

and you're precise. So you pick up this skill real quick. Now fast forward to 2026. And we're looking

at the midterms. And, you know, I know there's going to be people, look at who is this guy, which

I've never heard of Chase Boas. Well, you should, because I'll tell you what, with a 98%, you know,

accuracy rating, it take what he has to, not financial advice, but you could take what Chase Boas

gives you over the course of the year because we're going to have you on a lot to talk about where we are.

And, you know, maybe, maybe you use it as some intel for nothing wrong with it for, you know,

some of these betting markets. But aside from people being able to be the good capitalists that

they are and make some trades on good information, the fact of the matter here is that you've

been in with for six years, you started at a young age, you're still young. And the, the accuracy

is there. And that's what, that's what, you know, means the most to me is that it's accuracy.

I don't need someone to come on and tell me, no, Republicans, red wave, don't worry, the polls

are all fake, it's all this. So you're telling us right now that we are not favored in the house,

which is to be expected. Democrats plus 4.7, you said in the generic ballot, is that correct?

That's correct. Okay. And what normally, because I know that a lot of the times you can look at the

Democrats may have the lead on the generic ballot, but it doesn't necessarily win them the house.

So what have you seen is the threshold, like is if it's Democrats plus two, does that change

something? Democrats plus one, does that change something? What do you, what have you seen there with,

with whether it's your models or historical trends? Well, it definitely does change stuff.

So when I look at my current model for the house, I see 153 solid seats for Democrats. That,

I category is that it's 15% or more win. Okay. Same thing for Republicans, 173. Oh, sorry, 170.

So I look at those. And so you already can kind of take away some seats. And so you know what,

those are going to go. There's a lot of likely seats, which I consider 5% to 15%. That you,

you're probably about half of those, you're like, okay, I'm certain needs are going to go this way.

It's just not going to be by this margin. But the generic ballot can affect that. So like,

I'll just take, I'll throw out a number or, you know, Minnesota's first congressional district went

by, I believe it was like 11 points in 22, but went by, I think it was 16.1 in 24. So even though we

had a red ripple in 22, the, you know, the Trump ballot kind of carried. So what I look at there

is I look at the top of the ballot. So if, say we have a Senate seat up, it's going to be different

than if we don't. Or if we have a governor race, it's going to be different than if we don't,

and if we're just going for a house. And it depends on the state. It depends on the turnout.

The average turn of that state, you know, Republicans typically in these elections are historically

low turnout voters, which is something I've been pushing and something I've appreciated you on

your show talking about recently is, you know, we got to get out. We have to have people come

door-tock. We have to have people make phone calls. We have to do absolutely. And so that part of

my current job is delegating all that and finding people to go do those things. So I look at that too.

And it's just voter enthusiasm. You know, like I said, polling, like if we look at the generic ballot,

it's much closer. Like the generic ballot was actually pretty close. The polling was actually

pretty close. I think it was off by like 0.3 in 22. Okay. So it's actually been recently a good

indicator, despite polling, being polling. Right. So that's kind of what I take into account there.

Plus or minus, you know, incumbents, the advantage. So like I moved Texas 23rd down to likely because

granted Brennan-Heroes probably a better representative for the district. He doesn't have name

recognition in a way incumbent Tony Gonzalez did. Right. Right. It's hard to believe in incumbents

historically because of name ID, things of that nature. That's probably why would you agree? That's

probably why in the Texas Republican Senate primary, not necessarily the one off, but why Ken

Paxton underachieved a little bit. He was leading in all those three way races. He kind of underachieved

finished behind John Cornyn in that in that primary is that you think that's because of name ID because

Cornyn's an incumbent and he's been in that seat for a while and that kind of gives him maybe a one

or two percentage point bump. Maybe a little bit higher than that. I would say so in a way. The

other thing I'd say on that Texas Senate race, which is very important as we had a three way race,

Wesley Hunt and Ken Paxton. So personally, I viewed Wesley Hunt as the candidate with a

little less baggage, not that I dislike Paxton and I actually do respect him for him even offering

a dropout if we can pass the fact that that takes a lot. Yeah. So it's not no disrespect to Paxton,

whatsoever. I just when I look at it, because I look at politics as you know from an electoral

point of view, from a numbers view. So I want to run the candidate that's going to do the numbers

and that's going to have the best number because I don't want to toss a ton of money in Texas

when we're we're not going to do well in North Carolina or Maine or things like that or I'd like

to transition that money to be on offense, you know, in places like Michigan and Georgia. So I just

don't like putting that money in a place. So yeah, to what you're saying name recognition definitely

plays a role, but also, you know, the John Cornyn case, you know, he's not popular anymore because

he's one of the, you know, he's going to squishy. He's very squishy. He's kind of weak.

Fortunately, a lot of the Senate still is that way. Yeah. Well, that's that's that's a that's a

story for another day. Let me ask you this. The last time we had Donald Trump as the president of

the United States, there was this big Russia scandal, which was obviously nonsense. All right,

in the 2016 term, the 2018 midterm elections. So at this point in 2018, when they had this

black cloud hanging over Trump, they're trying to do the same thing with Epstein now. I don't think

it's carrying the same amount of water, but, but they're there's there's, you know, death by a

thousand cuts happening and in some arenas, I'm not saying the administration has been a failure

or that Trump is doomed, right? But obviously, you have historical trends working against against

the party in power, which is the Republican party right now. In 2018, right around this time,

you know, mid March, 2018, what did the generic ballot look like then? I want to say, and I don't

remember, I want to say it was a little bit of a larger gap than just four point seven points.

I would believe so. I mean, we saw 46 flips from the Democrats in the house in 2018. So it must have

been a lot bigger. Of course, that was a little bit before my time of political analysis. But I

didn't know what was happening a little bit. And I knew, and, you know, having researched

prior elections and, you know, looking at trend lines and all that, I have seen that, you know,

2018 was not a good year for us. Now, 2018, you kind of saw the writing on the wall big time for

a long time. And it actually looked like for a while that the Senate was going to flip as well

in 2018. And it didn't do in large part to what happened with Brett Kavanaugh and those hearings,

the Democrats were creating like false rape accusations about him and Christine Blasey Ford

and this whole thing. And that actually pushed a lot of people in those statewide races to vote

Republican and not allow the Democrats to take the Senate either. So let's look at this.

Now we have the House. You say it's a Democrats plus four point seven, you know, for lack of a

better term, four and a half points on the generic ballot. Republicans are not favored, but it's not

I don't it's not the same doom and gloom scenario that we were sitting there experiencing in March

of 2018. Yeah, the Mueller probe going on all sorts of different investigations and scandals

and accusations being thrown about Donald Trump and Russia. I feel like that's not the case

right now, but Democrats are still favored. Let's move over to the Senate. Okay. And by the way,

to speak as Democrats are favored does not mean they're going to win. You guys hear this information

and I don't want anyone to think this is like, oh my gosh, it's negative. It's a wake up call,

right? It's a wake up call to say get out. If you want to change the story, if you want to bunk

the historical trends, get out and knock on doors, make some phone calls, send some text messages,

form those coalitions in your neighborhoods. That's the way you're going to be able to do this.

And that will actually be undetectable in a lot of these polls. I get pulled a lot, but I know a

lot of people who tell me I've never gotten a call from a pollster once. I get them a lot. I get

text messages. I get calls. I get them all the time and maybe I'm on a list that says I'll I'll

answer them because I like to be a part of the the the equation there. But let's move over to the

Senate because the Senate for a while looked like it was going to be okay for Republicans. And now

looking at some of the betting markets, looking at some of the polling, the Senate is now in

question two. What are you seeing on the Senate side? So I see a lot of bad in the Senate,

but I see some good. And I think there's some things like I talked about with

Texas. We just need to be smart with our money. And that's something I noticed that Senate

Republicans in leadership haven't been doing in election years is being smart with their money.

Like if we look at 22, 2024, sorry, just to look back, we saw an even 22. We should we saw we

probably should have won Pennsylvania. John Federman was not in a good state. Again, my opinion of him

has now changed as a lot of people have. But looking there, we ran a very bad candidate against him.

And then we ran that same candidate or that candidate is I think planning on something or plan

to run. Dr. Oz was not a good candidate. No, he was not. And there's a lot of and I can say the

same for Doug Mascionna running against Josh Shapiro was not a good candidate. And so candidate

quality really matters, especially in these high profile races. Hershel Walker and Georgia too.

Yeah, Hershel Walker and Georgia, they're scandals. And now we're looking at Georgia like

I've owned it and I'll get into this and why. And again, I'm saying this, you know, like you said,

a wake up call. I'm not saying this to be negative, but I'm giving up on Georgia because we couldn't

get Brian Kemp there. And I don't think that it's worth putting the money where we could put it

somewhere else. And I'll say why? Because I do think Mike Rogers did a fantastic job in Michigan

in 22, 24, sorry. And he's running again. No incumbent, Gary Peterson's retiring. Right. And

there is a genuine chance for Mike Rogers who has been doing decent and polling, even in the bedding

odds, not too bad. And so I think that we just need to be smart about where we're directing our

resources. So when I look at races right now, I see 47 seats are going to go to Republicans, 45

to the Democrats. So that still leaves the margin open with, you know, eight, eight toss-ups. And

yes, eight toss-ups. So that being Maine, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa,

Nebraska, and Alaska with Mary Paltalo jumping in the race. So we're looking at losing potentially.

And I say losing loosely. I'm just saying we have to be smart in these seats. We have to be smart

in these states, Alaska, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska. You think Alaska is in is in doubt, huh?

I saw some polling that would suggest that. But I just, to me, it's like there's more polar bears

than there are Democrats in Alaska. But what goes into that thinking in Alaska? Dan Sullivan, right?

Dan Sullivan, yes. I do think that Dan Sullivan will still hold on. I haven't been leading margin

right now. But Mary Paltalo is popular. Remember, she represented Congress. Yes, she was a house

represented for Alaska and she was popular. Now, I think the Senate seat, even though it's the

same area of the Senate seat, I think the Republicans are more favored than in the House.

But because they're house. Now, Alaska, Alaska is a it's an at large seat, right? It's one

of the same seats, just like Wyoming, too. I believe Wyoming is the same thing. Lase Cheney is

when she was the one. It's now Harriet Hagueman. It's Wyoming at large, right? Am I correct on that?

Same for North and South Dakota of Vermont and Delaware. Yeah. Okay. So Alaska, kind of teetering.

It's weird. Hopefully, Dan Sullivan holds on there. Let's talk about let's talk about Maine. That's

Susan Collins up for reelection. You think that one's kind of murky? Does that go Democrat? Is she out?

That depends entirely, I believe. And there's a couple of reasons here on first of all,

the Democratic primary. So we're looking at Grand Plotter versus Janet Mills. Janet Mills is

current governor. Grand Plotter is more of a progressive candidate, but he's I guess more grassroots.

He had the scandal about the Nazi tattoos. He did. But, you know, they can get away with anything like

exactly exactly. Yeah. So what I'm seeing currently in polling, and again, you know,

it's take polling with a grain of salt, but I'm seeing Collins is leading Mills in the polls,

but Plotter is leading Collins. Okay. However, I will say 2020. Susan Collins did not want a single

poll, and she still came out by 8%. She held on. Right. But what I asked Republicans to do,

keep in mind that Susan Collins is the lone Republican representing New England. She is,

and I've been up to New England recently. It's a very different part of the country. And you have

to understand that you can't be mad at everything Susan Collins does because she's a Republican,

but she's a Republican in a tight spot. You know, she can't she can't vote with us every time on

legislation that might give. Well, I always say this. I always say this chase. I say, you know,

the job, and I say this about people like whether it's Thomas Massey, Tom Tillis, Susan Collins,

John Federman, you know, any of these guys on both sides of the aisle, the job is to represent

your constituents, right? Absolutely. So if you're if you're a Republican in a Democrat area,

you should be more of a moderate member in some of these legislative bodies. As much as I,

as much as it hurts my personal agenda, Susan Collins's job is not to represent me or you. We live

in Tennessee. Susan Collins's job is to represent the people of Maine up there. And that's a purple,

if not blue state. So if anyone gets a pass, I would say it's someone like a Susan Collins. I'm

glad you brought that up because she's technically just doing her job. Exactly. And you know, she's we

talk about partisan politics now in polarization, but we really need to realize that there are still

some areas of the country that are moderate or that need to be moderate. Like I was I was very happy

when David McCormick won in 24 in Pennsylvania. And I've seen the relationship that him and John

Federman have had on occasion where they work together. Yeah, but people of Pennsylvania. And I my

first thing when I saw them call the race for him is I my first thought was I wonder how him and

Federman are going to get along because you don't see you don't really see the people of

Ron Johnson and that would be Tammy Baldwin and Wisconsin get along. You don't really see Susan

Collins and Angus King work together. So I was happy to see, you know, some bipartisanship there,

especially through the government shutdown. And so, you know, going back to Maine real quick,

I just think that, you know, we can do it. It's still doable. Right now, I have a tilt D just

based on what I have now. That's short, totally subject to change. And I'm that one's that one

and Michigan are essentially like my bell weather Senate seats right here. Okay, those are my closest

ones. Okay, so we hit Alaska. You have it as Alaska as of now as of March 16th. Alaska, you have

at what tilt Republican for dance. So about one to five percent lean Republican.

Maine, you have tilt Democrat, right? Yes, so under one. Okay.

North Carolina. What do you got? Michael Wattley and the former governor of that state,

Cooper, right? Yeah, yes, Roy Cooper. So again, North Carolina, I look in a similar aspect to

Georgia where the Democrat candidate is better for the state. And I don't say better as in

Democrat is better. I say that the Democrat has more reach in that. Sure. John also being an

incumbent. Again, I don't like the guy, but really, ideally in Georgia are our goal was to get

Ryan Camp, the current governor to run. And I'd say in Georgia, I'm sorry, North Carolina,

I don't think we put up Michael Wattley as a, I don't think he could have been the best option.

But I do think there's limited options in North Carolina at the current moment. So

personally, I've entertained Dan Bishop, but I mean, again, it's a hard one to go,

especially with Roy Cooper being so popular. Sure. Okay. So you're saying that that one would be

what? A tilt or a lean Democrat? A lean Democrat. A lean Democrat. Okay. So we have Maine tilt Democrat

and Georgia. You have lean Democrat as well? Yes. Okay. And that's Mike Collins versus John

Ossoff. Yes. And Mike Collins, I've met him before. It's a nice guy. He's a successful entrepreneur,

trucking business down there. Okay. So we've got Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan.

Give us, give us your take on Michigan. What do you got on Michigan? Mike Rogers is doing

pretty well in polling, right? Where are you on Michigan? Well, Michigan, I think that,

and then this goes back to 24, but I think if we directed our resources better in the Senate,

we could have potentially won Michigan. We got it within 0.3. Yeah. It was close. It was close.

Very close. And of course, we did very well on the rust belt. We did better in Michigan than I

expected even. And you know, Republicans were saying, yeah, if we win, if we do get Michigan,

somehow it's going to be like 0.1. It's going to be super quick down to the watch. But we got it

by over a point for Trump. And it almost carried over to Mike Rogers. So Mike Rogers is running

again named recognition. I'm not exactly sure who his Democrat opponent will be. There's a couple

choices there. So it depends, I think, on a couple, you know, different factors there and going

back into looking at the primaries, once Michigan has their primary, all the better idea.

But I think that they're running, he's running a good, he's running as a good candidate.

And I think that he needs to be backed. I think that we need to support him. And it's a win-able race.

It's a win-able race. And if we go to governors as well, if we get a chance,

I can talk about that a bit more as well. Because the governors, I'd say we have a three-way race

on the governorship in Michigan right now. And I'd say we're slightly favored. Okay. It's

a prize of quite a few after looking in 22, seeing how Gretchen Whitmer did. Yeah, but it's a three-way

race now, not a two-horse race, what you're saying. So there's some vote splitting that may happen

there. Finally, let's do Ohio. Is the other toss-up Senate seat you got, right? Toss-up race, Ohio?

Yes. So Ohio and Iowa kind of pair together again. And we know that they vote very similar.

They're different states. You know, they're very different livelihoods. Ohio versus

Ohio, but they vote very similar. And we've seen that so recently. And you know, we've seen that

throughout the 2000s, actually. So Iowa and Ohio, well, you said Ohio is what you want to look at.

We'll do Ohio. Then we'll do Iowa. Okay. So Ohio, John Hustead is electable, for sure.

But, and we've seen that in prior races, but we're also looking top of the ticket being

Vivek Ramaswami. And I'll go into that a bit in the governors. But you have to, you know,

again look at candidate quality. And John Hustead has not been, he was appointed. He wasn't,

he's running in a special election. He was not elected to the Senate. And we saw last year's

Senate race. We saw two years ago, it was our 24th. We saw 22. Because of course, Hustead is

filling out their pants and replacement. Yeah. So both of those were very competitive seats,

despite how well trumped it in Ohio. Both of those candidates did not perform to matching

Trump's numbers. So I think in the Senate seat, we still have to be aware. And also, you saw

the Senate seat versus how Mike DeWine performs over 20 points in 22 versus Vance, not performing

here as well. So you have to look at that. You have to look at the, you know, how the

governorship plays in. I'm not arguing that it does all the time, but I'm just arguing that, you

know, it depends on, you know, how many people lead the ballot blank there or how many people actually

do turn out to go support John Hustead versus the Democrat, which I do believe Sherrod Brown has

jumped back into that race, if I'm correct. So yeah, I think so. I hosted in 24. And what are

you seeing in Iowa? No, I always something similar in Iowa. Uh, Iowa is going to be a money pit

from what I see. We have two competitive house seats. The other two house seats are open because

Ashley Henson from the second congressional district is running for Senate. And I believe it's

Randy Freenstra is running for governor. So all four, all four house seats are up or a problem.

The Senate seats are the governorship's hard. So I think Iowa, I think will be comfortable

in the governorship and the governorship and the Senate seat. But I think that we need to at

least just keep an eye on it. Now that I'm saying we need to direct a ton of money to it,

that's, I don't want to do that. But I know Iowa is going to probably be a money pit, especially in

the house, just with, um, Neal Dunn and, uh, sorry, not Neal Dunn, that's Florida. That's Florida,

yeah. That's that. That's that one. Yeah. Zack Nunn. And, uh, Mary Nat Miller makes. Got you. All

right. So now, but based off of the, uh, the, uh, the some of the toss ups that you had, uh, there

was eight toss ups. So we have Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, Iowa,

and what's the final toss up that you had there? Nebraska. I'm operating that because Dan

Osborne is running again. We saw he performed well against Deb Fisher. She got, he got within

eight points. I don't think he'll do as well against Pete Ricketts. But again, it's just

something that I want to keep a lookout for and see, you know, Democrats are starting to maybe

run as independence in some states. Gotcha. And by the way, I'm going to tangent here for a second.

New Mexico, the Democrat is running unopposed because we failed to put a candidate up to

met the signature requirement. Oh my gosh. So we're running. New Mexico. I'm arguing is not

it, not this year. Probably not in 28, but New Mexico in the future can be in play. But we're

sitting here letting a Democrat win a free term. Democrats are running unopposed in New Mexico.

It drives me crazy. It's going to, it drives you crazy. Drives our friend Dylan Philly on an

Iowa crazy. That's why he's running for office because his opponent ran unopposed to. Sorry.

So let me look at this now. New Mexico, uh, is, is a, that's just a mess. Complete disaster.

Alaska, leaning Republican. You've got main North Carolina, Georgia in favor of the Democrats,

Iowa and Nebraska in favor of the Republican. So I'll buy that math. If we can hold, Alaska, Iowa

and Nebraska with the other 47 safe Senate seats that are in there that gives us 50. So we,

we hold the Senate basically by our fingernails, not counting Michigan. It's not counting Ohio.

If, if we can squeak out the win in Ohio, it's 51. Um, and then obviously anything else, maybe

some of these other races change. Let me ask you this issues wise. Okay. How do we go about changing

this other than, you know, we go out, we do our knock, we do all these things, but issues wise,

what do you think could make a, a, a little bit more movement in the polling that could slightly

favor Republicans more put them in better territory over the course of the next, uh, you know,

seven months or so. Well, number one, the economy, we see in, you know, with the conflict in Iran,

no matter the opinions of it, the gas prices are going, I've gone up a dollar in our area, you know,

it's crazy. The grocery prices haven't declined much. Of course, some things and I'm going to give

Trump credit, of course, you know, I'm very happy that he's in office. I don't want to discredit him

whatsoever, but you have to look at a majority of people still aren't happy with the state of the

economy or the housing market. Affordability is a big issue and it's been a big issue in the

campaigns recently and 24 is one of the big issues. Of course, uh, immigration issues and economy

were the two top things. So immigration, we're taking care of, you know, some people, and I think

this may be partially a conflict in the midterms, people aren't supportive of ICE. Um, but I think

that's why they started with that early because the way voters work, they typically remember most

voters, you know, remember, okay, hey, what's going on in this period from like September to November,

you know, gas prices typically dropped in because it's election year. So, right, they're going to

want to drive the gas prices down. Everything gets things get a little cheaper sometimes if we're

lucky. Yeah. So, and then the government, the incumbents will be like, hey, we did that for you. Vote

for us again. Yes. And then so that's just, you know, that's just how that's political strategy.

That's how, you know, politicians, you know, kind of trying to win votes. Yeah. But, yeah, it's, uh,

so I'd say the economy first, I think that's probably the primary driver of what it's going to

look like. And that usually is, right? That's why James Carville comes out and says it's the economy,

stupid, and all this other stuff. And it's, it's true. It's, you know, I mean, people are, are,

are impacted based off of their, their personal lives. I like to call it deli counter politics too.

If you're Turkey costs a little bit more of the deli counter, you're not concerned with some

podcasters said on the internet, you're like, why is my Turkey so expensive? Why is my coal cut so

expensive? And, uh, while things are moving in the right direction, they may be doing so a little

slowly, but tax season coming up, those tax cuts, maybe having, uh, you know, the tax cuts from

the big, beautiful bill, having an impact. Maybe that, that starts to shift, um, people in the,

in the right direction, uh, in favor of Republicans. So Republicans down on the, the, the generic ballot,

uh, in the house by over four points in the Senate. It's very close. If I had to say midterms

or tomorrow, um, who takes the house, you've already said Democrats, what do you think about the

Senate? Do Republicans find a way to hold on a break even 50, 50 plus vans? What do you see happening

in the Senate? Right now, I have it 51 to 49. So like you said, the math there with Ohio holding on

or we're barely down in Michigan and Maine. Okay. I think there's still possible. Again, you know,

like I said, Maine has been doubted before. So I'm considering that, but I'm also considering the

modern political landscape or polarization has since shifted. And that would be 51 49. Who?

51 49 Republicans. Okay. That's right. Figured. That's right. Okay. 51 49. Yep. I do think Republicans do

hold on there. So I mean, it's tight. It's not comfortable. I was, uh, I will say I was very happy

when we won a 53rd Senate seat in, uh, 24. Yeah. It's going to put us in a better position because

if we didn't have that seat, first of all, there are some things that just wouldn't have gotten

done. Right. So there's that, but there's also right now, we'd be in a much worse spot even

what that wants to because every seat makes a difference. And that's the point I'd like to make to

these Republicans who are running candidates is every seat. It makes a difference that, you know,

we have to direct our resources properly. We have to put them. We have to be smart with them. We

shouldn't be doing bad candidate quality. We shouldn't be if candidates are running aren't great.

Then, and we know they're going to lose and I'm not saying give up on the race. You know, don't

give up on the voters. Get those voters out. Still encourage them. But let's, let's put them,

let's put the resources that, you know, when it comes down to the wire, let's put the resources

where we can that will, you know, give us the best outcome. I agree. Let's do one more real quick

lightning round governors, which gubernatorial races? Are you watching, looking for potential flips

in both directions? Give me, uh, some of your top governor, governorships that you think could either

change hands or be significant races, uh, that come this midterm cycle in about seven months.

So I have seven, uh, toss, uh, all right, great that I'm watching. Uh, so that being Georgia,

Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and Arizona. So, first of all, five of those,

are things swing states, five swing states, and then two of those are swing states,

you know, prior swing states, Iowa and Ohio, you know, those are, those are states that, like I said,

earlier vote very close together. So I'm looking at it the way I see it as right now 28,

or Republicans will hold 28 governorships to the Democrats 22. That's a total of, uh, the,

you know, counting any from the past three years. Okay, that's cool. So the Republicans will have

more governors, uh, than Democrats that actually, you know, that bodes well for Republican

constituents and voters in some of those either swing states or, uh, or, or red states,

when it comes to passing, you know, for example, voter ID or redistricting or things along that line,

along those lines, uh, through those state legislatures 28 to 22 Republicans would hold the

advantage. I would not, I would stop short of calling these predictions right now a blue wave,

but I would not say that it's nothing. The House changes hands if these, if this does verify,

House changes hands and, and goes Democrats. That effectively, I don't want to say end

Trump's term. He's going to still be the president of the United States to command their

entry for the United States military, etc. But it's going to make the legislative process nearly

impossible dealing with one chamber in the opposition party's hands. The Senate being, uh,

you know, 51, 49 if these, if these predictions verify, uh, in favor of Republicans and the

governorships at the state level, obviously favoring Republicans. Uh, tough, tough landscape to

predict here, but I, we do appreciate the 30,000-foot view and the prediction, um, you know,

going into this and we're going to continue to do this every, you know, a few weeks or so.

Any updates on the polling, any updates on your, on your models, any updates in any of those

arenas. Um, before we go today, I want you to let everyone know where to find you,

how they can interact with you, how they can, uh, if, if there are campaigns out there that want

to utilize your services in terms of forecasting and, uh, and data analytics. How can they reach you,

how can they find you? How can they, uh, how can they start a relationship now with chase pose?

Yeah, absolutely. So for business purposes, uh, Sean has been rotating my email down here

and on the top. So both strategy analytics, uh, that is my company. So you can find us on,

on Instagram, Facebook. Uh, I just started this. It's a single member LLC. I've started by myself.

I decided I wanted to become a political consultant for data because I've done this for so long

and I've learned so much. So I changed my career path entirely in the past year to do so. So

I do work with candidates. So chase.bose at Bose strategy analytics.com. You can also find my

forecasting at political dot predictions on Instagram. I have, I've been doing my best to roll

some stuff out there. I'll have more coming soon, especially once I just throw these, uh,

throw these predictions out that I've talked about today. But, uh, so for that, I do some forecasting

and then of course I have my actual, uh, company that I work with, uh, candidates on.

They go 98% accuracy rate and a rising star in the industry. I don't need some stuffy guy.

And no disrespect to anybody who's been doing this for a long time. But I don't need some guy

in his suit showing up on Fox News, reading from a page about how this is order midterms. Yada Yada

with a white button. No, we've got a, a bright rising star 20 year old. I call him a data phenom.

Chase.bose on with us right now. And, uh, and he's going to continue to show up and continue to

be with us here, uh, as we, as we get closer and closer into the midterms so that we have a good

feel for what is going to happen. How, uh, these elections are going to go with a 90%, 98% accuracy

rate. It's really hard to do better than that. Um, we're not looking for perfection. Perfection

is impossible. However, if you do wind up going, you know, going perfect and pitching a perfect

game, uh, you know, I'll be celebrating for you. Chase, thank you so much for, uh, for jumping

on. And I can't wait to get you back on here again soon. Thank you so much, Sean. I appreciate it.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, hope you enjoyed that conversation with the great chase bows, a data

guru, a political analyst. I believe a rising star in this space. It's always good to have a good

numbers guy, right, to be able to tell you what the probabilities are of something happening,

what to expect. And of course, this early in the process, because we're still early

before the midterms to kind of figure out where we can go and what we could do better. And I

think, uh, he is a phenomenal guy. He's got a bright future. And hopefully he's a part of our show

for a very long time. Also, by the way, you know, a fellow Tennessee and all the good people

live in this state. We love it. All right. Uh, before we wrap this show up, I want to get to you a

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and ghost silent today. That's s l n t dot com slash s l n t dot com slash s h a w n. Look,

as Chase Bose told you, you know, going into the midterms or seven plus months away, he's got

the Democrats with about a four and a half point advantage in the generic ballot. It's not

something that we can't make up. That's not something that we can't close the gap on.

Matter of fact, it's a lot closer than it normally would be in a traditional midterm year.

The problem that we're going to have and that we always struggle with is when Donald Trump

is not on the ballot. Are we going to turn out? We know the Democrats are going to turn out,

right? We know the Democrats are going to show up. We've got to show up too. We've got to bring

that too big to rig mindset back onto the political battlefield once again. You've got issues like

the iron war that are a, you know, a variable in this entire situation, the economy, gas prices,

things of that nature. These are things that are going to play a role in the process. I think,

though, the number one determining factor of how we perform in the midterms is on us. I love to

look inward. I love to look in the mirror. And I love to say, Hey, what can we do? You, me,

the folks who are in this chat, what can we do to increase the likelihood that we buck the

historical trends and we win the 2026 midterms? As you heard, the house kind of looks a little shaky.

The Senate chase currently has it at 51 to 49. There are a couple of races in there, though,

that I think that we can win. Maybe you take Maine off the board. Georgia, I think we can win.

I happen to be a big fan of Mike Collins. I think he's a great guy. I've met him on a couple

of occasions at a few turning point events. He's got a great story. Can he beat John Ossoff? I think so.

If Georgia shows up in Michigan, we can do it in Ohio. We can do it. Iowa, Nebraska. I think

we got those races. That doesn't mean stay home and put your feet up. Still get out there and

door knock for those candidates and do what you've got to do to get out the vote. That is the most

important thing that we can do. Putting all of those boots on the ground, those text messages sent

by the way. Be careful if you're sending them from your own phone because if they're marked

as spam, you might have some problems. I had that issue last year as did our friend Dylan Filion

in Iowa, but the point of the matter here is that getting out and doing the hard work is what

is going to determine whether or not we perform well or we don't perform well in the 2026 midterms.

Brennan, I just went out door knocking over the course of the weekend for a local sheriff's

candidate. Yeah, sure. That's not maybe the midterms. Doesn't matter. You got to get out,

get involved and get people engaged. You know, the folks that are going to get out and vote in

a sheriff's election are sure as hell going to get out and vote in these midterm elections.

Get out, make those conversations, walk your neighborhood, talk to your friends,

send a few text messages, make a few phone calls, make a few posts on social media, send a few

messages on X to friends of yours that are there. Make sure they're voting where they're at,

Facebook, same thing, Instagram, same thing. If you've got kids, have your children reach down

into their friend group, make sure their friends are registered to vote, make sure they're going out

and voting. This is the stuff that we've got to do. This is how we win by doing what I've been saying

for the last six years, own the process, own the process. This is your process. This is your

government. If you own it, you'll win. That's how we do it. You know, four and a half points on

the generic ballot is not insurmountable. We can absolutely close that gap. We can absolutely

buck these historic trends. And the next time we have chase pose, I will see which direction

those numbers have gone. Folks, as you know, I'm guests, those in the Dambon Gino show today,

and tomorrow, Tuesday, St. Patrick's Day. So here on LFA TV, misfit page, the exact

one, Philio, he's going to be filling in here during my hour tomorrow while I'm on rumble.com

slash Bungino filling in for the great Dan Bungino, a huge full circle moment for me. You'll hear

on that show a dream come true to be able to sit in for my favorite conservative commentator

in this space. One of the reasons why I wanted to get involved on Long Island in the first

place is because of listening to Dan Bungino. So to be given the opportunity to be able to do this

is something I never thought was possible. So excited and super grateful for that opportunity.

So you can catch that show over there. Remember, Zach, misfit patriot filling in right here tomorrow

on rumble.com slash LFA TV. I will be on rumble.com slash Bungino tomorrow. Wednesday, we're back

live in living color, looking forward to your feedback from from from the the following

couple days Monday and Tuesday, you know, obviously the 16th and 17th. You know, I don't love

pre recording, but I really want to introduce you to this young phenom, this young man, this amazing

American chase pose. I hope you enjoyed it. I really, really do. Jeremy Harrell is coming up next

right here on rumble.com slash LFA TV. So don't go anywhere. Jeremy's up next rumble.com slash LFA

TV hit that thumbs up button. Make sure you hit that follow button. Make sure that you're sending

this to all of your friends. Bring them in to one of the most dedicated truth seeking networks on

rumble. That is rumble.com slash LFA TV as your favorite president says we will never give up. We

will never give in and we will never ever surrender. And if all else fails, we'll just become

ungovernable. Thank you. God bless you. God bless this one nation under God and divisible with

liberty and justice for all have a great rest of your Monday. I'll see you tomorrow on the

Bongino show and I'll see you back here live and living color rumble.com slash LFA TV on Wednesday.

Jeremy Harrell up next. Thank you for your attention to this matter.