Mike Ginnitti analyzes the Commanders' free agency spending & Brandon Aiyuk's contract debacle with the 49ers

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Right now is Michael Genetti, spot tracks, co-founder, editor.

I love this site.

I reference the site a lot.

I bet you have a lot of people, Mike, around the country,

that tell you that.

But it's just the best place to go to

for just organized sports, contract,

and salary cap information.

And during free agency, it's a very valuable tool.

You do a great job with it.

And it's much appreciated by people like me.

I do want to start with Washington.

Before I get to the primary reason for calling you,

which is Brandon Iyuk.

But what have you made of what Washington's done here

in terms of the players they've signed,

the contracts that they've signed them to,

just your overall thoughts on Washington's free agency so far?

Aggressively selective.

I'll put it that way.

It feels a little different than last time around

where maybe a little bit more thrown

below me at the wall last year,

because there was a little bit of anxiety,

because of how well Jay and Daniel

had started this career.

And now things have settled down a little bit.

And some of these contracts look a little bit more poised.

Obviously, the big fish right now is the OA deal,

which is really just a two for 50 on its face.

So if everything else kind of settles in underneath that,

there's still ample cap space.

We can project about 40 million of cap space right now

for Washington heading towards that second wave of free agency.

So they're not putting all their ducks

into the early part of the offseason.

They're giving themselves some times for trades,

for other teams that maybe settles in dust a little bit,

and then head towards the drafts with assets around.

Explain to me how Washington has been

the third biggest spender so far in free agency.

I think in new players actually acquired their number one

with 12.

It's 16 total since last Monday.

But we know where they went into free agency with top three cap space.

And even though they've been a top three spender,

they still are third at SpotTrack right now

with available 2026 cap space.

How does that work?

Did they just push everything cap wise out into the future?

Yeah, generally speaking, a new kind of track

comes with a friendly first year cap,

which is obviously what you're seeing

with the Larry Mutonful extension.

That was a significant amount of savings despite the fact

that he's the highest average paid off

in the blind men and NFL history.

So it's sort of funny how that works.

It feels like the aggressiveness is there.

And yet, much of the damage doesn't come until year two

and certainly in year three if it exists at that point in time.

So there's a benefit to signing contracts,

which is why you're seeing some of the contending teams

with little cap space do exactly that this time of year,

which is a tack on a year or two

to some of their more notable players

just to get that kind of immediate benefit from the cap perspective.

And do they just count on the cap continuing to go up?

You know, it's 301 million this year.

And I don't even know what you've got to project it at next year.

But I'm going to guess it's 330 million or somewhere around there.

That's a part of it too, right?

No question.

Yeah, I think we're kind of keeping it lower

around 323 for an early projection.

But just on the face, you know,

a 20 million increase every year allows you to make at least

a mistake or two a year.

And it allows you to push things like this down the road a little bit

as well.

No, the teams that have been aggressive with that,

you know, it always comes back to get them at some point in time.

But simple, simple extensions, simple free aging contracts,

like we're seeing in Washington, handle right now,

not too much collateral damage down the road.

You know, completely different subject,

but I just thought of this.

You know, the players get 48.8% of top line revenue in the sport.

You understand the business of the NFL.

And I'm always interested with those that scream at like an additional game

and 18th regular season game and say,

well, the players are going to have to get a lot more back in return

before, you know, the NFL and the NFL PA could come to an agreement on that.

And I always say, well, yeah, I mean,

safety wise, they probably want, you know, increased rosters, et cetera.

But with the 18th game, they are getting more.

They're getting 48.8% of a lot more if they add that 18th game.

I'm wondering how you view those kind of conversations

in the context of the revshare in the business of the NFL.

That's really an interesting way to look at it,

honestly, is to kind of come from the numbers standpoint.

Certainly, I agree that the relationship has gone well in that regard.

I think the point of contention for most of these people screaming out loud would be

any time the owners try to tinker,

the players have got to do everything it takes.

Because the owners in this league specifically just have such high amount of leverage.

Obviously, the money is, you know, the printing cash left and right right now

with these media deals that continue to balloon even just this week with an announcement.

So I just think that the standard is we've got to make sure that at every point in time

we're putting as much pressure from a player side of it as possible.

And if that means getting an extra half a percent out of what you're discussing here,

I do think that's a big talking point with where things are headed in the 18th game.

And the other side of it that I would bring up is most of the people close to the league

believe that 18th week for every team is going to be an international game,

which does complicate things, does make things a little bit more expensive

and doesn't necessarily bring in that home revenue that owners are speaking to here.

So there's a little bit more of a nuance to what I think,

but I agree with you that the relationship is strong

and they really shouldn't screw up too much of a good thing, right?

Yeah, trust me.

I'm not suggesting the players shouldn't try to get everything back in return.

But when people say an 18th game, the players get nothing out of it.

That's just not accurate.

They're seeing an increase in the media dollars, which they share in at a 48.8 percent rate.

By the way, you mentioned something in that answer.

And I think you were referring to this performance-based pay that came out this week

because Chris Paul actually made a bunch of extra money

that I don't know that anybody understood that he would be making.

He did, his agent did, but I'm talking about NFL fans in general.

Was that what you were referring to?

You kind of slipped that in during your answer.

That and then the CBS contract with, oh, yes, it's going to be about $3 billion here,

you know, up about 20 percent.

But performance-based pay is part of it.

That's a CBA, it's a collective bargaining-group-created system

that allows rookie contracts to balloon a little bit in the final year

or throughout the course of their rookie contracts.

So that's a perfect example of the players getting a little bit extra.

Sure.

Pergo, last couple of CBA iterations.

Explain how that works.

Explain, because honestly, I don't think I ever heard

about an additional paycheck for a player based on performances

that had nothing to do with incentives.

Exactly.

Yeah, it's really just like a rookie incentive.

If you follow baseball on Kevin,

they've done this recently with the pre-obitation players,

where pre-obitation players that have a certain amount of war

and a season are subject to now these exact same performance bonuses

on an annual basis.

I believe the top 100 pre-ob players get a bonus.

It's exactly that.

If rookie contracted players that are not eligible for extension

or are not yet able to hit free agency,

kind of outkicked their coverage from a productivity standpoint,

they will get compensated based on this collectively bargain pool.

And it's a cash-only CBA-driven pool.

There's no cap, you know, affected all for the team.

It's just cash and hand for the player in the agent.

And it's been a nice, nice little kickback for a lot of players

that for the most part are near minimum salaries on an average basis.

Chris Paul received just over $1.2 million in 2025 performance-based pay,

which was fifth-highest in the NFL for the year.

By the way, on Chris Paul,

he was the one out of the players that they had

that were entering unrestricted free agency.

That I thought had a chance to cash in earlier,

rather than maybe Wave 2, Wave 3,

because they really didn't have an obvious Wave 1 free agent

from, you know, the players that played on their team last year.

What do you think?

Why do you think Chris Paul didn't get, you know,

a bigger deal and hence came back to Washington?

A weird market for some of those middle of the road,

offensive linemen, and things like that.

You know, we saw the sheet walker out of Green Bay,

where I thought we had a chance to get starter pay.

He's not a one-year formulae in our contract

with a ton of incentives to make it, you know, 10 out of max.

So it's just sort of been the trend right now.

Not that I think that the entire positional group is coming down by any means.

I just think that depth pieces are remaining depth pieces

and maybe we're losing a bit of a middle class right now

with some of these position groups,

because of how high the tonsils and the sladers

and the sewells of the world have gotten.

Not that they don't deserve it,

and not that there's not cap and cash for everybody,

but we have seen this gap sort of widened in certain areas,

and I think maybe it's trickling into this offensive line stuff

just a little bit right now.

Come back to Washington in a moment.

I don't want to lose this thought

because the Max Crosby situation was certainly an odd situation.

Real quickly on that.

Do you have a gut feel as to what happened?

Do you think Baltimore got cold feet?

Or do you think that legitimately they were concerned with the medical?

You know, the softball answer is there's a little bit of both there,

but there's no question that there's cold feet, right?

There's no question that they saw the greener grass,

the ability to hold on to draft picks

and take a risk on Hendrickson in that contract,

which is perfectly plausible.

It's just the risk you're on, right?

I mean, this is all unofficial stuff for those first 40

to 72 hours that were going through this stuff,

and I know it feels like free agency was done before it even started,

but this was one of those cases where

you've got to kind of keep your foot on the guest pedal here

because these things do happen.

We just haven't seen it happen at this level

with this type of player in forever.

So it's going to be a learning education piece

where I think a lot of teams as they navigate

sort of some of these early wink wink moratorium

negotiations behind the scenes

and try to not let those things get out to the public.

Yeah, why do they do it this way?

Why wasn't last Monday at 12 noon

the beginning of free agency period?

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It's a good question.

Agents do feel like they need the time

to sort of collect all their ducts.

This is all happening.

We're leading up to it.

Right.

Get it or stuff.

We know what's happening.

I think the league itself is sort of saying

the quiet stuff out loud at this point in time.

We've got league Twitter accounts

posting agreements and merchandise,

not official for agency.

I think everybody's in and at this point in time,

I would expect something to change,

maybe not immediately,

but in the coming years here,

because it is a little silly and things like this

are going to get caught up in the middle of it.

The compensation that Baltimore did

or was willing to offer two first round picks for Max Crosby

coming off last September's deal for Michael Parsons,

I said,

and you're going to have a much better feel for this.

But my gut feel was, man,

for a couple of years,

I heard from various people

that cornerback was more important than pass rusher.

Interior pass rush was more important than edge pass rusher.

And I don't think that's true.

I think after quarterback,

isn't it edge rusher next in terms of salaries,

you know, compensation and trades?

It seems like that's still the number two.

It always has been. What do you say to that?

I'd say it's becoming much more debatable.

That had certainly been the hacking order for quite some time here.

And by the way,

Michael Parsons contract certainly puts that back

into the forefront.

There's a question about that.

But we are seeing quite a bit of his money

and quite a few of these markets jumping

much, much at a much higher percentage base.

Let's put it that way.

Then the edge rushers are.

I would put the, you know,

the Chris Jones contract on the interior.

Certainly five or six cornerbacks

have reset the market pretty much every offseason.

And it happened again this year

at 31 million with Trent McDuffie out in Los Angeles.

So it's coming.

We're not there yet.

But I would agree with you that as of right now,

you know, if there if there is a Michael Parsons,

a true a alpha edge rusher,

that is still the number two most coveted position in football.

All right, Brandon Ayukh,

just give me your overall thoughts

on maybe start it chronologically.

What happened in San Francisco?

And what currently is going on?

And what do you project will happen?

Yeah.

Certainly can flip the report.

Did he quit?

Did he not want to rehab?

What happened with the team there specifically?

Obviously, it's a position where there's a point

of no return.

So how do we get rid of Brandon Ayukh?

The biggest conversation right now in football, in my opinion,

because the fact that it hasn't happened

that there has any been the discussion

of San Francisco pulling the trigger on this thing,

means to me that they have gotten

at least an inkling of offers with the trade market.

It's a 1 for 27, 9 guarantee,

just to say what it would be on the face right now.

You bring that contract in, you restructure it,

you rip it up, you start over

because obviously everything's voided

and it's sort of a vanilla contract.

But that's what it would take to acquire Brandon Ayukh

on the surface.

Wait, I want to make sure I want to make sure I'm clear

on that before we move on.

If you give up a 7th rounder,

you get that $27 million base salary for next year.

Why would he restructure that,

versus if you picked him off waivers, you're starting a new.

That's right.

That's the big debate is,

we want to get to a situation where we can start

at ground zero with Brandon Ayukh,

build our own contract versus bringing in.

And like I said, he has no,

he has, if you acquire his contract,

you are acquiring him and the contract as a package deal.

That sounds like a recipe for disaster if you're asking me.

Regardless of what the pick is that you're giving up.

Right.

The San Francisco side of this, Kevin,

is that they lose $20 million to do anything right now

from a cap perspective.

They caught him, they lose $20 million.

They trade him, they lose $20 million.

So they are in no rush.

And then the other side of this,

which is me putting some words in their mouth,

but I don't think it's that far fetched.

I don't think they're in a rush

to let this guy hit the open market right now.

Or in a rush to let this guy pick his next team.

I think there's a little bit of that happening

because there is this direct connection.

He has sort of been out there saying,

the commanders are a choice of mine

for the, for my next destination.

I think they're holding suit because they can hold suit right now.

And certainly from a financial standpoint,

it does make sense for this stuff to happen after June 1st.

So will teams wait for this?

Or will they wait out San Francisco

to have to force a release?

And then they can start from scratch with Brian on a euk.

I think the latter part there is what teams are hoping for

because I think just adding any more assets to this player

with that resume is just too darn risky right now.

Yeah, I totally agree with you.

And I would think that every NFL team,

unless there is, you know, behind the scenes information

that this was truly like an equally

blamable, culpable situation

where IU had reason to believe.

I mean, I've said this a million times.

Giving back $30 million for not showing up at a facility

twice a month to get your knee checked is bad judgment,

you know, in a best case if you're trying to evaluate him.

Right?

It's ludicrous where I got to.

And it's ludicrous that I got to a point where he didn't even

feel the need to appeal those guarantees for it.

Right.

It means that, I mean, that is an admission of,

this was me, I took it to this level,

I just want to get out of here.

That's the only way I can read that.

You know, outside of the fact that he doesn't like football anymore,

which I think some teams have to do some homework on.

But you're right.

I mean, this was a guy, it wasn't even 30.

It was, it was X amount of dollars last year.

E-forfeiter, you know, guarantees salary last year.

E-forfeiter, basically a full salary this year.

And there was injury guarantees in 2027.

This was a contract that a half sitting in front of him

that all he had to do was just kind of play ball and show up.

And even if he's off the injured, that money is his.

So it's a truly startling scenario for a player

that works so hard to get into this contract.

And then as quickly as he was in it,

he was trying to get out of it immediately.

So what's your prediction?

How does this end?

He gets released on June 2nd,

which is terrible, by the way.

That's a terrible, because the San Francisco 49ers

can designate him a post June 1st release right now.

That could have happened last week, right?

They can free up this dead cap situation in June,

put him on the open market

and let him go pick a team right now.

I believe that they will choose not to do that

and that they will wait until June

and wait until after the draft and make all the other teams

make decisions without him being in the fold,

including draft picks.

And then they will release him and hope

that he probably latches on somewhere

at a very, very small contract for 2026.

So I think there's a little bit of vindictiveness

happening here, but I guess I understand

that if things really got that sour.

So let's say that they don't get any draft compensation,

because it sounds like you believe

that somebody would be nuts to actually acquire

the player and the current contract

with a conditional day three pick or whatever it would be.

Let's assume he gets released June 2nd.

What does the deal look like

when he signs with Washington?

I all I can tell you is what our model says

about Brandon Ayuk, when as the football player,

he's still about a $13 to $15 million player right now, okay?

Which is half of what he was earning before.

Do I think he gets that in June?

When everybody else has rosters, 90 man rosters full,

I think that's inconceivable.

But is it a $7.5 million dollar contract

that can double with incentives?

Yeah, that's probably pretty plausible

because we may also have AJ Brown moving on June 2nd, right?

And maybe a couple of other post June 1 trades here

that kind of shake things up a little bit in the league.

So it won't just be the Brandon Ayuk show

at that point in time is what I'm saying.

And I do think that if he's healthy

and if he is ready to play football,

he can impact a roster immediately, at least for one season.

Thank you for doing this.

Always enjoy the conversation.

Keep up the good work. Thanks, Mike.

Appreciate you, Kevin.

Michael Genetti, everybody from SpotTrack.

June 2nd, mark it down.

It's a Tuesday.

That may be the day that Brandon Ayuk is released

and perhaps within minutes or hours or just a few days,

he will end up signing with somebody.

And certainly there's a chance.

It could be here.

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