Military Analysis of Iran’s Strategy + U.S. Soldiers’ Growing Opposition to the War

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Dispatch's Live on Breakthrough News.

I am your host, Ronia Callick, or between Iran, Israel and the United States continues

to escalate into a second week.

The region is on fire, literally, and no one appears to be backing down.

The question now is how much further this war will expand, who's actually winning on

the battlefield, and how sustainable this war is for the US and Israel.

Because while the war drums are beating ever louder in Washington, the reality inside

the US looks very different.

Paul show overwhelming public opposition to a war with Iran, and there are growing reports

of resistance among American soldiers themselves, as Trump appears increasingly willing to put

US boots on the ground.

So what's really happening in this war, militarily, politically, and inside the US military?

To discuss all of this, I'm going to be speaking to two guests, first, to break down the

military tactics and weapons shaping the US-Israeli-Ran war, is John Elmer, a contributing

editor at the Electronic Intifada, and after speaking with John, I'll be joined by Mike

Prysner, executive director of the Center on Conscience and War, and filmmaker at Empire

Files, to talk about widespread opposition to war on Iran among American soldiers, and

what it reveals about morale, public opinion, and the limits of US war-making power.

But first, I want to remind everybody who's watching that we are an independent media outlet

here at Breakthrough News.

So first off, make sure that you like this episode, share it with everybody you can, and

make sure you comment and engage all of that helps boost us in the algorithm.

And also, if you want to really support Breakthrough News, you can become a member by going to

patreon.com slash Breakthrough News.

And with all that said, I am going to go ahead and bring in the lovely John Elmer, John

welcome back to the show.

Good to see you, Ronia.

Thanks for having me.

Well, it's good to see you, too, though it's always because we got to talk about war.

Yes.

But you are such a fantastic military analyst, and that's what I want to talk to you about.

There's so many different fronts taking plates here.

There's so many different angles to it.

So, you know, John, before we get into maybe specific weapons systems, and who's using what,

can you maybe talk a little bit about the defense architecture across the region right now?

Sure. I mean, this is a generational thing, the US security architecture.

I mean, I think we think of it as like a natural right or something.

But this was all a product of the first original Gulf War in the 1990s.

And then, of course, escalated significantly in the global war on terror.

So, the base apparatus throughout the Middle East is not a divine right.

It's not a natural law that these should exist.

They exist for an imperialist war in Afghanistan, essentially, because they, you know,

to move assets into place in Afghanistan, they needed those bases to kind of hop from.

And they've sort of spun that to the host nations as creating a security architecture for them

that would keep them safe. And what we've seen, of course, in the last, I guess,

we're on day 10 now, is about the exact opposite of that.

It's put states that don't have anything to do with it into the line of fire,

and forces them to take a position that, you know, probably goes against the vast majority

of their populations. These bases in most countries are very unpopular.

They, you know, you can even see on our show last week, I brought a bunch of video evidence,

and it was very difficult to find a strike in one of these host Gulf countries,

where the people on the ground are not cheering. Everybody, in every video, there's cheering on the

ground. I think that there's a lot of people that don't want those bases and don't see the benefit

of those bases in their communities. And that's, I think, the Iranian strategy is to put that kind

of security architecture really in the crosshairs. And if they're going to be pushed into an

existential war, which I think this truly is for Iran, if you believe everything, even if you

don't believe what Trump says, but look at what they're doing, it's an existential war. And so,

I think a long-term strategy of Iran was going to be to target those bases. And I think that

they have done that in, you know, a pretty spectacular way over the last 10 days.

It's really incredible when you think about the fact that these Gulf states that are being hit

by Iran right now. Well, they're, you know, the U.S. bases on them that are being hit by Iran. A lot

of the injuries we're seeing, or not even injuries, a lot of the damage we're seeing from

Shrapnel, is coming from the interceptors that are being used to shoot down Iranian missiles to

protect the U.S. bases, and then falling on, you know, all of this civilian infrastructure

across places like Dubai, across Kuwait, across Saudi Arabia, across Bahrain. It's just completely

wild that, and I mean, if I was a country, I would start to see, if I was one of these countries,

I would start to see these U.S. bases as not assets to protect me, but as actually a liability,

because it's destroying their economies as we speak. But we'll see, we'll see if they eventually

kind of get that message or how that plays out. But I do want to ask you, I want to kind of go

through each of the people or each of the people, each of the countries that are fighting right now,

and what they've got on their side. So I want to start with the Israelis who are the most protected

from all these defense systems of really anybody else. But let's first talk about, you know,

what can you describe to our audience, what offensive weapons and capabilities are these

really is relying on in this war, especially as they're, you know, effectively fighting on multiple

fronts. And at some point in the later on, we will get to the Lebanon front here. But and then I,

so I want to ask you about Israel's offensive capabilities. And then I want to ask you about

their defensive capabilities, because that's what they're relying heavily on the various interceptor

systems that they have in their own country with the five layers, but as well as the interceptors

beyond their country, that actually stopped Ronnie and project like missiles before they even get

into Israeli airspace. Right. So offensively, I mean, they've been on an unprecedented offensive,

you know, upwards of 10,000 bombs that they've dropped in 10 days. They're doing that with American

fighter jets that are, you know, that are purchased with money given to them by the United States.

The addition of the F-35 has stretched their ability to strike Iran, which wasn't something

that they had previously. So those are an introduction to the conflict that allows Israel to do

something that, you know, in previous decades of Netanyahu wanting to do it, it wasn't possible

to do without the U.S. Now we have this situation where the Israelis could say, well, we're going,

right, and that Trump made that sort of excuse saying like these Israelis were going. So we figured

we had to join them, you know, because they were going to do it on their own. So that is something

that's different. If we were talking 10 years ago, I don't think we would be having the same

conversation because they've never had the ability to do that. What we've seen over the first 10 days,

a lot of Israeli strikes have been from outside of Iran. They use standoff weapons,

essentially, air cruise missiles that are carried by air, and they're launched from the borders

of Iran. So that's what we saw for the first 10 days. They're attempting to degrade the air

defenses in Iran so that they can have what they call air superiority over Iran, which would allow

them to freely bomb, you know, more hospitals than the 29 hospitals that they've already bombed.

In terms of defensive, they are part of this massive US project for missile defense that is a

product of the Cold War that is essentially a system of shooting missiles out of the air with

missiles. It's an incredibly complex, extraordinarily expensive, very technical process to do that,

because even if you know, even when they're training, when US troops are training,

and they know where the missile is going to go, they know when it's being fired. There's a count

down to when that missile is being fired, because it's a training operation. It's still difficult

to hit the missiles. So this is with everything ideal conditions, and those ideal conditions are

no longer in place because the Iranian strategy has been to knock out the radar systems on these

US bases that provide that interlocking missile defense capabilities, which is why you have seen

the USS Ford, the aircraft carrier strike group that is off the coast of Israel. They're effectively

only able to protect Israel because they have to be so far off of the coast because

Hezbollah has anti-ship weaponry. They have to stay so far off coast that they're not actually

providing a security umbrella for the Gulf states that are being targeted. They're just doing it

for Israel, and there's a number of times we'll encounter this throughout this discussion where

it's really this is for Israel. There's nothing in this for the US. In fact, there's just a lot to

lose for the US, and it's probably starting to happen right now at the gas stations across

the United States. I haven't gone out today to see what it's like in Canada, but we're obviously

expecting significant energy spikes. So the ability to have this missile defense function properly

relies on these high half billion dollar radar systems, and once those radar systems are knocked

out in certain places, you lose the overlapping nature of the missile defense, and that's what the

whole system is built on. It can't just be one system, one missile. They have this whole apparatus

of missiles and systems. So when you knock out these radars, you're leaving blind spots,

and you're relying on a radar that's now further away to detect the launch, and detecting the

launch is the asset that these systems make. They have early detection, so you have the maximum amount

of time, both to see when the missile is being launched, but where it's being launched from,

that allows you to calibrate the trajectory of the missile, and allows you to intercept it.

You start pulling these radars offline, and we don't know yet, because we have never seen this system

have radars being knocked out. We're living things that we don't have the ability to go back in

history and say, well, this happened at that time, but the strong supposition is that these radars

are not going to be replaceable any time soon, and if they are replaced, it's going to be the US

going to other countries that they have security arrangements with, like South Korea, they just did

it, and they went and they just take their air defense system and they plop it into the Middle East,

other countries who are supposedly US allies, like South Korea, or even countries like Japan,

who look at this situation, where they get 95% of their energy from that 100-kilometer

of waterway that is currently the Strait of Hormuz closed, effectively closed.

And so, yeah, you have this sort of situation where, under ideal circumstances,

it still would be a very difficult war for the US and Israel, but on these circumstances where

you're losing this entire, you're losing entire parts of this missile defense system,

I think we're going to see a lot more missiles hitting their targets, and that's what Iran's plan

was. Iran's offensive plan was to fire a lot of their older missiles to deplete finite stocks

of missile defense interceptors, and then to save their better missiles, their more potent

missiles, their more accurate missiles, for the time of shortage for the US and Israel, which

you have various estimates, because we don't know exactly how many interceptors we can watch on

video, and we've seen, particularly in the Gulf states, that they're firing at 5, 6, 7 interceptors

at a single missile. That map is not going to work out for the Gulf states.

There was the previous supposition that maybe if you fired two Patriot interceptors, these are

multi-million dollar interceptors, interceptors that they only build 600 of in a year, that's the

Patriot system that most of the Gulf uses, but when you get up to the higher systems, it's even

less interceptors, like the THAAD system, which is their most sophisticated system, they only produce

less than 100 interceptors last year. You start to think about a ballistic missile stockpile in Iran

in the thousands, and you can just see that this is not something that can go on for a long time for

Israel and the US, and I think that that's Iran's war plan.

And then I just wanted to ask you before we kind of move on to the US, and then I want to talk

about Iran more. We're seeing all of this interceptor debris causing damage in the Gulf states.

So I started to get in my mind, I'm just thinking, shouldn't we be seeing something similar

taking place inside Israel, since Israel has all these interceptor systems that essentially should

be shooting out missiles as well, and then causing debris, no? Yeah, they just had it the other day,

they had an attack helicopter, they do a lot of the drone intercepts with helicopters and fighter jets,

also a crazy financial disparity to be flying these planes around for $20,000 drones, but

the Israeli military released on their channel, the IDF channel, they released a helicopter coming

up behind one of the Shahed drones and firing their 30 millimeter cannon, which sends out these

like pop bottle size rounds, and hits the back of the drone, and then three hours later you're

reading that people are upset in Israel, because the drone came down on their house, and that's

happening in Jordan, particularly, because the Israelis are using Jordanian territory to intercept

drones before they get into Israeli territory. In terms of like, so the lower level of the

air defense system is the iron dome, which is the one that people are most familiar with because of

the years of using it in Gaza, really, but also on the Lebanon front. They try to intercept them,

the intention is to intercept them over open space, and that's when they're, that's the intention,

but of course, we've seen them fall all over. We see them fall all over Jordan. We saw, I mean,

the Saudi oil field was hit by pieces of an interception that set up the Rastunura fire in their

oil installation was from an interception. So, you know, these can cause real problems, and the people,

you know, people in Jordan just watching this, you know, 75% Palestinians, like they're watching

these, their country be used essentially as a human shield for this war, and I think that these

are the kind of things in the long run that just can't, that seem like that just, the center can't

hold on these kind of things when these states are being shown so bare to be, to have no benefit from

this security arrangement, and actually are now being drawn into a war, where there are most

fundamental, you know, ways of living, like desalination plants. You pop the desalination plants

in the Gulf countries, and life ends there within weeks, you know, these are not, yeah, these are

fragile systems that, and for Israel yesterday, to target Tehran's oil depots and create

like nuclear winter level black cloud that was raining. Yeah, like nuclear winter with oil

rain, I mean, it's just horrifying, and they're, I guess they're just counting on the decency of

the Iranians not to knock out the drinking water as a response to this kind of warfare, to

expand the warfare in that way. That just looked like a desperation.

I just listen, John, I want to show this might be a simplistic video, but I feel like it's a good

visual and everything you've described, and then I want to ask you a couple more questions.

You may have seen this, it's been making the rounds on like Instagram and on YouTube,

and I just think it's like, for those of us who like don't understand the nitty gritty,

it does a really good job of just showing you how missiles on their way to Israel get stopped

on the way with all of these different interceptor systems. There's 10 missiles that Israel,

and even one of those missiles successfully hits its target, it would be considered a major

success for Iran, because targeting Israel for Iran is extremely difficult. As soon as Iran launches

missiles, they are first targeted by American patriot defense systems deployed in Iraq, where the

United States has military bases. The missiles that survive this phase then enter the airspace of

Syria and Jordan. By that time, Israeli Air Force fighter jets are already mobilized,

and they enter Syrian airspace to try to intercept and shoot down the missiles. We know that Jordan

is also assisting Israel, and Jordan itself attempts to intercept the missiles to prevent them

from reaching Israel. Despite all this, the missiles that get close to Israel's borders are then

targeted by American naval warships deployed in the Mediterranean Sea. Any missiles that still

manage to enter Israel must then face Israel's five-layered defense system, which includes

Arrow missile system, Thad system, Patriot system, David Sling, Iron Dome. Remarkably,

despite all these defensive measures, some Iranian missiles still manage to evade the defense systems,

and ultimately strike cities such as Tel Aviv and Haifa.

So I think that's like a really good, just kind of very basic overview, and it's just a good

visual representation, and it's just wild. So I'm sitting here talking to you from Lebanon,

where we have zero air defenses, just completely nakedly open to whatever Israel fires here,

and same with Syria, same with Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel has so many layers of protection,

but then, you know, interceptors, you were talking about the fact that there's only so many,

right? And maybe they're meant to be used for a brief period of time, but not for a sustained

period of time. You can't make them as fast as you're using them in this scenario.

So think about, I just want to kind of ask you, and this kind of maybe moves into more of the

realm of like the US and Israel together, but, you know, we've got the US deploying, I think,

another aircraft carrier to the region, which will give them three aircraft carriers. You've got

extensive US bases. You've got all these interceptor systems across the Gulf, and then across these

states, the Iraqis, the Jordanians, before it gets to all of these Israeli interceptors.

And at the same time, we're hearing about these US shortages of interceptors and even munitions,

by the way. With the Pentagon, and you mentioned this is relocating certain systems from other

parts of the world, like South Korea, for example, and moving them. I don't know if it was the

patriots or the fads, or sorry, I don't know all the lingo like you do. Well, all that's to say,

how sustainable is all this. I know that there was, you know, Lockheed Martin

had said that they would quadruple munitions production. And maybe munitions are easier to make

than interceptors. But, like, how sustainable is something like this if it goes on for,

we're hearing what, a hundred days maybe? I mean, we could even talk about five days, because the

ships that are the cruise missiles, the destroyers, the missile destroyers that are with the USS

Ford, they can't be resupplied at sea. So they carry a finite number of interceptors. And when

those interceptors are done, those multi-million dollar interceptors that can range from three to

25 million dollars per, when they fire those, they have to then reload on shore. They have to

to sail down to Diego Garcia. They have to go through, you know, what would look like

offloading of a ship at any port, wouldn't surprise people, you know, dozens, if not hundreds of

people involved in reloading them, and then send them back for the two and a half day sail back

to the region. So these even, these systems are super finite. And the way that, because, yeah,

I think I already maybe said it, but because of the threat on shore, the carrier strike group,

the USS Ford is so far off of the coast that their radars don't work for much of the Gulf,

for much of the Gulf states. So they are really and truly this multi-billion dollar,

you know, what their daily costs are, I don't know, sometimes I lose track of, because the numbers

get so big, you can't even really, you know, how many billions before your brain can really

comprehend how much it is. But they're spending this incredible amount of money to battle against

a million dollar missile, a 25,000 to 50,000 dollar drone, like the drones that they're firing,

they've the Iranians have fired 2600 of them. The easiest way to understand them is they're

essentially the size of a car, the speed of a car, and the cost of a car. And they're out there

competing against all of these, you know, billion dollar apparatuses, the missile defense program.

I mean, you can't even really put a price on it because it started through the Cold War,

you know, through the Star Wars era. And then it came, you know, through to the Israelis as seeing it

as something that the Israelis really needed. And the Americans kind of worked on it with them

because they saw the benefit to them as well. But these projects are largely, they're for Israel.

And their billions of dollars and missiles are absolutely making it through to Israel. And the

fact that the media, I mean, I'm sure your audience isn't part of that. But anyone who watches

the regular media, you'd think that Israel stops everything. They have all these beautiful

systems and science and it's amazing. It's simply not true. It wasn't true with the iron dome.

And it's not true with the higher end as well. And then Iran has missile capabilities

with movable reentry vehicles that can, that can essentially change their target in flight,

which effectively amounts to steering in simple terms. And so really it's the longer this goes on,

the more difficult it is to see how the Americans get out of it. And that's the sort of, I think,

the worrying part when you have such a random, you know, psycho, like Trump, that any given moment could,

you know, could tip World War III. I don't see what his off ramp is other than to do his

Trumpian thing where he's like, oh, we won. We, you know, it was the greatest. I mean, let him say it.

If it makes it stop, I guess, I just, the Iranians will chase him out with missiles. Yeah.

So that'll be, yeah. Listen, I want to, I want to talk about Iran specifically in those 10

thousand dollar like drones that you're talking about. It's kind of incredible that those are

taking down these multi-billion dollar systems. But first, I have to lecture the audience because

I see that there we have over a thousand viewers, but I only see 260 likes. I don't like that

Matthew guys. I'm going to need anybody who has not hit the like button to go ahead and smash it

now. Smash that like button helps boost us in the algorithm. So yeah. And also, you guys,

I'm talking to you from Lebanon. I get extra likes for that extra likes for talking to you from

Lebanon. But yes, hit the like button. Please, everyone. Okay. So John, on the Iranian, on the

Iranian side of things, we, I want you to break down. You know, we see that Iran is relying heavily

on drones. They've got ballistic missiles. I think I saw that drones were even being launched

from mobile launchers to make it more difficult. Like, I don't know if that means guys on scooters,

but to make it more difficult for the Israelis to hit the launch sites. But tell us about Iran's

offensive weaponry here. Yeah. No, those drones could be launched off of, um, off of, of racks,

you know, that look like maybe like donut racks with a, with a, an angle on them. And you can then

put a dozen. You can have a double and have 24. And you can just fire them off all at once

and from the same place. Um, you know, that's a little bit risky just because it gives, it takes time

and gives a, you know, a radar signature that could be struck back on. Um, but they could fire

those drones. I mean, we've seen in, in, in the war in Ukraine that there's nothing that you can

do to stop drones. In the Ukraine, the way that they're stopping the same drones that are being

used here, they're Iranian Shahed drones. They're putting up like fishing nets to, uh, you know,

miles wide fishing nets to try to catch. So that's where we're at of, you know, but basically like

forest survival techniques are the frontline technique to deal with these drones. They,

they run on Chinese or Russian GPS and they're extremely precise that they can, you can plug in

the coordinate of the third floor building in the Bahrain hotel where US troops moved when they,

uh, when they, uh, moved off the base to protect them, they put them in hotels, basically right

beside the bases. And you can put those kind of coordinates in and hit them directly. You can put

the coordinate in to hit the exact radar that matters for knocking out the system rather than

sending a ballistic missile in and hoping the shrapnel knocks out the, you know, the system. So

these drones are highly effective, um, and pinpoint accurate. They also are largely fiberglass. They,

they fly low and slow. So their radar signature is limited. Um, they have a hard time finding them.

And then when they do find them, they attempt to shoot them out of the air with Patriot interceptors

that are multimillion dollars, um, or they have to have piloted, uh, aircraft up in the air

essentially doing patrols. And you see that in Jordan, they're running up and down the border,

um, just waiting for the drones. And then when they see them, the drones are going slow. They're going

as the faster than you would drive, but not faster than your cargoes. Um, and so they're able in a

fighter jet or an attack helicopter to really, you know, ideally shoot them down in a place over

the desert, but we see in Jordan all the time them landing, uh, on people's houses. So the drones are

significant. Um, Iran's last, uh, military update. They said 2600 drones had been fired. Um, so

that's a significant, um, uh, part of this war for sure. And it will be the enduring part of the war

because even if, you know, were you to, to think that the Americans could be successful in

this war, once you destroyed the country, the would still be the capacity in a guerrilla movement

to constantly launch these drones because you can just launch them out of your hands at some

points, right? If you're, you don't need massive architecture infrastructure to, to launch these

drones. So, and they, Iranians have, I think, untold thousands of these drones. They're not going to

start this existential war that they have known has been coming for years and not be fully prepared for

that. So drones, I don't think there is any solution to the drone problem. Um, and then from there,

they move up to, um, a missile, missiles, uh, that they have been building, um, that go back to the

beginning, um, of the Islamic revolution when they spent the entire 1980s fighting missile wars

with the U.S.-backed Iraqis, um, where they would fire missiles into each other's communities

constantly, and ultimately at one point, uh, the U.S. gave Saddam chemical weapons so that they,

the missiles could have chemical weapons that were lobbed into, uh, Iran. So missiles have been

a key part of this entire lifespan of the Islamic, uh, revolutionary guard corps. And so they, uh,

they have been developing them and are a world power in missile development, um, in numbers, in

types in, um, you know, different capacities we're seeing right now cluster munitions being used.

So even if your interceptor is successful, it breaks apart into some of them break apart into 10,

12, you know, 15, uh, separate, uh, warheads, and some of them are 80, um, 80 different, uh, we,

you've probably seen the videos of them when they come out, uh, that's the first time we've seen

them. We know that they've had them and answer a law, uh, the many armed forces have used them

on their Palestine to ballistic missile to the, to some degree too. Um, and that just means that

now you're talking 20 interceptor missiles. Um, and that's if you get them, right? If you use the

two for one that they use with the Patriot system, you know, now you're talking about 100 interceptors

for a single missile. So it's really, um, the, the missile capacity they have is significant.

They can travel distances that make every area within Israel, um, you know, in play, um, they're

accurate to a reasonable degree that allows them to land them on the military bases that they're

aiming for. We know that from the 12-day war, um, you know, the Israelis of course cover this stuff

up really well. They're able to censor stuff in the neighborhood. Um, so obviously they're able

to completely censor things that happen on a desert military base, which is where these

bases are. Um, but you can see from Hezbollah's field reports and from the Iranian field reports

that they're both firing on Israeli military bases and after the 12-day war, it was revealed

that a lot more hits on those bases happened than were, uh, suggested at the time of the war.

And we can pretty much guarantee that that will happen again, uh, this time. So that really

does make up their, their offensive, um, you know, they're not looking to fight a ground war.

They don't really have a navy. This Trump going in on the, like, we've destroyed the Iranian navy.

This is right. Yeah. Like, after they said they destroyed the Iranian Air Force, which was like the

Shah era Air Force, um, that sanctions didn't allow any parts to fix. So these are not serious gains

and they, but they indicate that the Americans don't have a lot to show for this. They're trying to

tell you they sunk a bunch of ships that were tied up at shore. Um, and that that is, uh, you

know, showing that we're going to win this war America. And, and it just doesn't, uh, it just,

I, the longer this war goes, um, it does not go in the US favor. And the other thing that the

Iranians have is they have a really significant cruise missile, uh, capability. And those can

carry heavier, uh, warheads. Um, they can be, um, have they used, have they used cruise missiles?

It's a few. They haven't used as many as I thought they would. In true promise one and true

promise to the first two operations, um, after the assassination of, uh, ismail hania in, uh,

Iran. And the second true promise, they used a quite a number of cruise missiles and they

cruise missiles go faster than, so the drones go low and slow cruise missiles go a bit higher

and a bit faster. And then you have the missiles. You put those three together and you make these

complex attacks where you have things coming in at different speeds, um, different payloads.

And it really shakes up the, um, missile defense systems. And we saw that in Iran or in, sorry,

in Yemen on the red sea, um, where the Americans were trying to fight these, um, these battles. And

they've said that they were the, they're shooting down of cruise missiles drones and ballistic missiles

and anti ship, uh, missiles was the most, uh, naval warfare that the US had done since the second

world war. And that was against, uh, the Yemenis and Ansar Allah who have shared technology with, um,

the Iranians, but they don't have the nation state, uh, that Iran has, the industrial base,

the size of the country. Um, and you start talking about a generation of doing this where the entire

military strategy interspersed with the, you know, the, the human ingenuity of the people of Iran

have created a significant missile system, um, that, you know, the way that the Israelis are trying

to stop it is to knock out the launchers. Um, right. But there's more launchers than, you know,

than the ones that they see above ground. There's underground launches. They have really sophisticated

silos that launch from under the ground that you can't see. Um, so I, I don't think that they're

going to be able to curtail, uh, Iranian missile, uh, attacks in the time frame necessary for the US

to, to be effective in, in stopping them. Yeah, it's really about like who can last longer.

Um, and Iran's got these like homemade, um, you know, drones that are so, that operate so well,

the Russians were buying them to use in Ukraine. Um, and, you know, Russia's got a very sophisticated

military itself. So, um, and I, of course, I have seen that, you know, the US and the Israelis are

saying the Iranian, um, the Iranians are firing 90% less than they were in the beginning of the war.

And they're saying that's evidence that Iran's retaliatory capacity has been severely degraded.

And what, what, what do you think that's actually about? Or is that accurate?

I just think they lie and they lie. I just, I mean, it's, if you go back and this, this is now

been a three year war when, when you really think about it going back to October 7th, when you

think about the number of lies that Israel has told in that period of time, uh, compared to their

truths. Um, I don't, I don't see that. I don't think in, if the number is, is that it's

declined by 80%, but that could be a choice of Iran to stretch the war out. Um, and that is, um,

you know, that's what I would do. I mean, I think that that's their number one, um, you know,

tool to survive and not just to survive, but to put an end to this Trump two week war,

Israel attacks whenever there's elections or, you know, Netanyahu's not, um, you know,

worried about his next election. So they attack Iran. That can't be, this can't go on the way

that it is. Israel marauding through the Middle East, taking over whole chunks of countries,

if not entire countries themselves. Um, it has to be stopped. And I think Iran sees it as

existential. And I think Hasbala does as well. Well, so I'm glad you mentioned his

Bala because I want to make sure I get to ask you about that before we wrap this part of the, uh,

the stream up, um, because we do what we are going to get to another guest, but John, you're just like

such a such an encyclopedia when it comes to the military analysis of all this and it's so

important to understand. So, uh, exactly a week ago now, um, Hasbala, which is a group that

exists in Lebanon, where I am speaking to you from, uh, entered this war by launching, um,

missiles at Israel, um, and Israel has, of course, unleashed on Lebanon, but that's not the full story.

I'm sure that's what's making, what's making the news is that the Israelis are mass,

bombarding Southern Lebanon. They've, there's about half a million displaced people because

they've issued these, like, these, these displacement orders or these, like, stay, uh, like, stay

and die or leave, like, sort of threats. Um, and that's what's been really making headlines,

but there are ongoing battles taking place in the south of Lebanon as the Israelis prepared to try

to invade. Uh, and the, the, the, you know, Hasbala was, was severely weakened in 2024. There's no

doubt about that. They lost their senior leadership. They've now rebuilt to some degree and they

are demonstrating that they still have the capacity to fire missiles at the Israelis. They've

clearly, they've been making a lot of their own weapons. Um, the Israelis are particularly having

a difficult time with Hasbala's drones. Um, so yeah, can you tell us how does Hasbala's

entrance into this war impact the war between the US, Israel, and Iran, or does it at all really?

I would think it would because it does, you know, siphon away a little bit of resources from

the Israelis on the one hand. And then also, what are Hisbala's capabilities here? What,

what, what, what are you looking at? And what do you expect to see moving forward?

Yeah, I mean, I, I mean, I think that Israel's genocidal, uh, disposition of creating ethnic cleansing

everywhere they go is devastating. And I think that, um, you know, it's unfortunate. I know Hasbala,

I was in, um, Lebanon in the 2006 war and the way that they got people out, um, you know,

moved people out of the battle space, um, was something that, that garnered them a lot of credibility

and respect in 2006. And when people came home, they came home right away. And they would,

you know, when I was there, they would yell off the balcony, like, I was home at 11 a.m.

on the day of the ceasefire, right? Like you can't keep me out of my house for more than two hours

after the official ceasefire. Um, but this war came on fast. And, and it came on too fast for the

Americans. They're not fully ready to fight this war. Um, Trump seemed to come up with this timeline

out of thin air like he always does. And, and it's difficult for, um, for Hasbala to, to be proactive

in the way that they were in 2006. And I think that that's, um, really unfortunate, um, and,

and devastating the ethnic cleansing, just driving people from their homes where they don't have

places to go. There's no infrastructure yet set up, although I hope that in the coming days that

there will be more of that infrastructure set up. Um, but for Hasbala to join the war, you know,

a lot of people thought that had were, well, we were told that Hasbala was, you know, defeated

in the last war, but that's not how the last war went. Um, the Israel attempted a massive ground

invasion of South Lebanon and the ending stages of that war. Um, and they were repelled

by Hasbala ground forces. They were, Israel was unable to move forward to the Latani like they

intended to do with their force at that time. I think it was mounting up around 100,000 troops

that they had and Hasbala held them back. Um, and then there was a ceasefire and the ceasefire was

I think in part, um, in large part was to, um, stop the war on the people of Lebanon who had,

you know, endured this war. And I think, um, you know, to keep the, the social fabric of the state

in it needed to be defended of its sovereignty, but then ultimately needed to be kept in place.

And I think that Hasbala made a decision to stop the war, um, and give a ceasefire an opportunity.

But the ceasefire has been a complete fraud. Um, I'm sure you've talked about it on your show

before. The number of violations are absurd, you know, in the tens of thousands. Um,

they killed 500 plus Hasbala cadre leaders. They're just assassinating them on their bikes,

uh, you know, on their motorbikes going to get groceries. And that could not continue. You cannot

use a ceasefire to eradicate, uh, you know, to destroy a militant group. That group can't allow

that to happen. Um, and so I think that the fact that they are able to join the war and to

join the war at full pace, not, um, you know, not dribs and drabs. I mean, they've came,

they came in. I've been keeping track of this because it's just so remarkable. Um,

there are 115 operations in as of yesterday, um, in six days. So they're, they're 20 operations

a day. Some days, there's as many as 33 operations. Um, and they have a huge advantage because of

proximity. They have the advantage of proximity to Israel that Iran has the advantage of proximity

to the Gulf States. They could use a much more wide array of weaponry, um, because the distance

is shorter. They can use different teams to fire off different ordinances because the distance is

so short, you don't need highly complex launch systems. Um, and then the distance that the rockets

and they have missiles, they have anti ship missiles too, which is why the, um, USS Gerald Ford is

offshore. Um, these get to Israel really quickly. And so the air defense system really struggles,

especially with complex attacks and the drones, they just don't have any solution. The Israelis have

no solution for the drones. There was a clip that has Bala put out yesterday, um, and the Israeli

soldiers are on the ground shooting up like they're spraying in the air, hoping that they hit the drone.

And if they do hit the drone, it drops it into their neighbors, um, you know, courtyard or whatever.

I mean, that, that, just that image alone is, it shows you what they have for those drones because

the drones can fly low and slow, low radar signature, you know, the amenities used all kinds of

tricks to make it look like that wasn't a drone. They came out over the Mediterranean because the

drones can go 2500 kilometers. They can go far more distance than is needed. That is the case for Iran,

and for Hasbala and for the Yemenis who haven't joined the war, but should the Yemenis join the war

and close off the Red Sea and the Suez. Now you're talking about 80 plus percent of global trade. So

the Yemenis have stayed out of the war at this point, but they're there with, you know, with an

ace card to play at any point. But to the Hasbala, the drones are able to penetrate very easily.

They have significant rocket capacity, multiple, multiple launch rocket systems that,

that really tie up the Iron Dome. I mean, they have, Hasbala has 20 rocket

launchers that they can fire, and that keeps the Iron Dome really at, you know, it's peak to

try to be successful. And it just can't stay that way. So a lot gets through, and I think that

that is the goal for Hasbala because Hasbala, like Iran, are in an existential battle here.

And they joined the war, and I can see how that could have created some issues in Lebanon,

that it was them that joined the war, but within days, the war was coming to Hasbala.

So you might be able to quibble with whether they should have been the one to do it, or be seen

in Lebanon as defending, I think is immaterial in the outcome. The outcome is that the war was

coming for Hasbala, and it was going to be either during the Iran War, or it was going to be after

the Iran War, and there's nothing that Netanyahu has done that suggests that he's going to stop this

genocidal rampage. He's re-shaping the Middle East. He sees it as a messionic

endeavor, and Hasbala would be foolish to believe that they were going to be

not involved in this war. So when their largest backer, in some ways, their creator,

their patron, is being attacked in this way. They simply couldn't stay on the sideline.

And I think that joining the war gives the opportunity to be part of the solution to this war,

which in the hope would be, which would constrain Israel to stop attacking its neighbors every few

months, and massacring tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of people in these places,

while the whole world just sits back and says, well, it's a dangerous region or whatever

excuse people in America and Europe are giving to allow Israel to do this.

And John, lastly, I just wanted to briefly ask you, because we're going to get to our next guest

after this who's got a lot to say on what I'm going to ask you about as well. We do hear Donald Trump

increasingly favoring the idea of putting US troops on the ground. Let's say something like that

were to happen. I think would change this war into something dramatically different that would not

go in the direction the US thinks it would. But what would you, as a military analyst, see happening,

if that were to take place, if we were to put American troops on the ground?

I just don't even think it's possible. Michael no better, but I don't think that if the United

States depended on it, that they could build up a ground invasion, like a desert storm tile,

a style invasion of Iran. Iran is a mountainous country. It's basically surrounded by mountains.

It's like the challenge of Israelis fighting uphill in Lebanon times 10. And it's also massive.

I don't see it. There isn't a ground war solution to this. I can't imagine. I don't know how the

Pentagon and intelligence officials allowed Trump to get into this war in the first days. But I

don't think that they're going to allow him to spiral this into a war that could destroy large

portions of the American military. I don't think there's that support. But I would respectfully

defer to Mike on that. He'll know better what people think about, even if American soldiers

would be down with that kind of operation. Yeah. Well, John Elmer, contributing editor at the

Electronic Antifada, where you do like basically a weekly update of the military movements that

are taking place across the region. Everybody should check that out on Thursday, as I believe.

Everything. Thank you so, so much for joining me. I really appreciate it. Anytime, Rania.

So, that was the wonderful John Elmer and very important conversation about what's going on in

the battlefield on all these different fronts. And so, next I have to continue the conversation,

executive director of the Center on Conscience and War and filmmaker at the Empire Files,

the wonderful Mike Prysner. Mike, it's good to see you.

Rania, hello. Welcome. Welcome back to the show. There's lots to talk about. I mean,

geez, the world is just exploded in the last 10 days. And so, I want to start with, you know,

you are working at this organization, the Center on Conscience and War. And your organization

is actively encouraging US service members to basically seek legal discharge. If they don't

want to participate in a ground war against Iran, which is being exploded as a real possibility

right now. So, why don't we start off by, you know, can you explain what your organization does

and what this campaign is about? Yeah, well, you know, interestingly, the day I started this job

was the day that six Americans were killed in Kuwait, then a couple days later, the massacre at

the girl's school in Iran. So, there was an unintended start to this new position heading up

the Center on Conscience and War. But it's the start nonetheless of me coming into this position.

This organization's been around for 85 years, more than 85 years. And since World War One has been

helping conscientious objectors get out of the military. Of course, there's a number of amazing

counselors that are experts on that. People have done this for over 40 years, a network of attorneys.

I mean, it's a really great free anonymous organization where you can get help if you're a member

of the military, whether you think you're a CO, whether you've gone AWOL and need help, or the

variety of other ways that you can get out of the military. I mean, our basic core mission is that

we don't believe that anyone should have to do anything that violates their conscience in the military.

And there's a variety of ways that you can exercise that right. And so, what we've been doing recently,

and in regards to the Iran War, is the same thing that's been done for decades and decades.

But we have found that, of course, at times like this, a lot more people are thinking about that.

They're thinking about their own conscience, their own morals. They're having kind of deep

deep explorations of themselves and what they're willing to do. And I think when you're looking at

the day-to-day news, there's a lot of people having those questions. And so we have been really

trying to be diligent and putting out to the public, because most people don't know these resources

exist, right? I mean, when I was getting ready to go to the Iraq war, I had questions. I was looking

for answers. I was looking possibly for support. I wasn't sure if it was the right thing to do,

but I didn't find any resources. I didn't find any people who were there to counsel me or give me

advice or anything. And so we know that right now, there are thousands of soldiers and airmen and

Marines who are questioning what they're being part of, getting ready to be deployed, not wanting to

be part of it, but not knowing that they have any options. And so on the one hand, our job right now

is to get the word out there as much as possible, that these resources do exist. There are people here

who can help you. And then actually managing those cases. And we, from the very beginning,

of starting an application through going with to the actual conscience objector hearings,

with service members, we're with people every step of the way.

And I just want to put this up on screen, which is a phone number that people can contact. Why don't

you, well, I'll leave that up there for now because I, you know, you've said that since launching

this campaign, your phones have basically been bringing off the hook with calls from soldiers and

their families. So tell us what you're hearing from active duty troops right now. What kind of

concern are they expressing? Well, you know, we fielded hundreds of calls just in the past,

past seven days or hundreds and less than seven days for sure. A majority are people who are in

the active duty military. I mean, we're talking about people who are who have guard units and reserve

units who are being activated right now to go to the Middle East, active duty military units who are

on standby to go to the Middle East. Also, people who don't have imminent deployment orders but are

very worried about them coming. You know, we even worked with someone who thought he was going to

get deployed. He filed as a conscience objector. They tried to send him anyway. They forward

deployed him to stage to go to the Middle East. We filed a, we threatened to file a complaint

against this command. They sent him back home and now he's getting an honorable discharge. So

even some of these things are even down to the wire. Like people are being sent overseas and

contact us to get help. I'm also hearing from a lot of families. We're getting a lot of calls

from very, as you can imagine, panic family members, spouses and parents and siblings

who are trying to find ways to save their loved ones. And you know, it's, of course, there's a lot

of a lot of options we can provide people. But I would say overall, you know, of course, there's

a sector of the military that's that's pumped about this and it's excited to have their war and

have some fantasies about what it's going to be like and all of that. Of course, there's a lot

of indoctrination in the military to that effect. And it's effective. But you have a lot of people

who are seeing what's happening, not only thinking about what it means for themselves. Like,

do I want to go get blown up in a hotel room in my rain or something? But thinking about what it

means to where the uniform and what the US is doing to the people of Iran and the world. And I

think that there's a lot of, you find a lot of people who have deep, deep moral issues with that.

And they want, they're looking for support. Fair enough. And here, I just want to show people

the flyer. And I'll do like a, I'll show another close up of that phone number again. But basically,

don't choose your orders over your conscience. It's a, it's a really, really great flyer. It's been

going viral online. I think at some point, your organization was taken off of, off of X by the

free speech warrior Elon Musk, but then we're reinstated after people were outraged. And I,

you know, one thing that you were warning about when you were talking about the sort of responses

you were getting from people is that there are more units being activated for deployments than

the public realizes. So can you talk a bit about, you know, because you're getting this sort of

influx of phone calls, influx of phone calls, what are you hearing about troop mobilization and

preparation that the public might not be aware of yet? Well, you know, it's really similar to

the buildup for the invasion of Iraq, which, you know, I, I was in the initial invasion. And so I

remember the, the months, you know, the couple months before that of what it was like to be in the

army at that time. The, the, the DOD or the DOW is a, is basically doing that right now. I mean,

basically everyone's getting ready to go. You know, and officially, it's not what you're doing,

you know, like, so I think even up until we got on the plane to Iraq, officially we weren't,

we weren't being told we were going to Iraq. And so I think that there's a, units are being

activated, like guard units, reserve units are being activated, meaning they're being called up.

And, you know, like the 82nd airborne is put on standby. And so like the, what's happening is

some things gets out to the public. Other things, you know, people will call us to say, I'm in this

or that unit. We're getting activated. We're getting ready to deploy. I'll look for it in the

news. And there's no mention of it in the news. And so I can't give a number to how much that is

happening. But we do know, and we talk about the potentiality of a ground invasion, you know,

it's hard to say whether or not that will happen. But what we do know is they are preparing for

that to happen. I mean, they are putting all the pieces in place to do something like that. And

that's why that's why we're getting a lot of calls. It's not just, there's of course the number

of people who are just seeing themselves in uniform and seeing what they're seeing on the news

and not being able to reconcile that with their conscience. But then there's also the very real

kind of imminent danger that a lot of them feel that they're in. And you know, you served at some

point in Iraq. You saw what the terrain like was at least in some parts of it. You were taught,

you heard John probably talking at the end of that segment earlier about, you know, Iran is

a different story in terms. It really is surrounded by mountains. It's really like you can't just

walk into Iran. Like I don't know which country the Americans think they're going to walk into. They

can't come through an aircraft carrier. You can't put like if you really wanted to invade Iran

properly, you need hundreds of thousands of troops, right? What are you going to have them all

propelled down from helicopters? It doesn't work like that. And so I'm just curious, you know,

we've already seen several US soldiers that we know of. I think the numbers at eight, you can

correct me if I'm wrong, who've already been killed in this war. If the US were to launch a ground

invasion and it's crazy, we're even talking about that, but the reality is that Donald Trump

is increasingly convinced that's a good idea. How much higher could those casualties get?

Well, look, I mean, the US can wage a ground war by landing aircraft. I mean,

we invaded Iraq through a mountainous area, special forces cleared an airfield on the ground,

and then just landed a bunch of planes. So, you know, it's not impossible that you could do

invasions of those types of waves. That's what airborne units are for. They're for jump parachuting

in and then making airfields so that planes can land in a country. Here's what we know about

the Iraq war and how that relates to Iran now. First of all, in the Iraq war, the war went very

badly if you remember, but that is after pretty much immediately, in the very beginning of the

Iraq war, overthrowing the Iraqi state, just spading its military and taking control of all its

conventional weapons and bases. That was like the very first thing that happened in the war.

And then the war went on for 10 years and was very devastating for the United States. And so

Iran, you know, I imagine if there was a US ground war in Iran, those three things would not

happen immediately or for a long time. And so, look, even just a guerrilla war against the US

occupation has proven to be really devastating for the US in more than one country. The real danger

of the ground war that I think people should recognize is, you know, I'm not an expert at all

in military tactics or strategy or anything like that. But what I do know is, is the lessons of

the past several wars that the US has engaged in from Iraq to Afghanistan to Vietnam. And that's

once you start committing ground troops, any number of ground troops, even if it's a small amount,

and you don't immediately succeed, that number of troops just continues to grow. And then you have

a situation where, oh, we have troops there, they need support, they need more troops, you keep

going, then you have a series of administrations and leaders who don't want to take responsibility for

a debacle, for a failed war, for a failure. And that's why you had with the war in Afghanistan,

just administration after administration, knowing that the war was a lost cause and lost,

but no one wants to take responsibility for the defeat. And so they just kick it to the next

administration. So that the biggest danger of a ground war outside of a huge amount of casualties

for the US and devastating crimes against Iranian people is that it will just initiate a

kind of a never-ending phase, a new phase of never-ending war for the United States. And I think the

big thing, and you know, a big thing that people are calling us very concerned with, and that I know

that thousands of server servers are concerned with, a big danger of the ground war is a tie to what's

happening now, is that what do you expect the kind of actions? How do you expect this administration

to prosecute the war, right? They already have just done the most egregious crimes. And so

a ground war would mean that, you know, they would, and hegseth is open about this. I mean,

they think the Iraq war was too soft. They think it thought it was too woke. And so soldiers who

would be part of a ground war against Iran, or even just a over, you know, fighting from Saudi Arabia

and Bahrain and all these other bases, the people that are in charge right now are monsters. They

have no regard for human life. In fact, they revel in the killing. They revel in the killing,

the revel in the killing of civilians. And that's the kind of thing that you're going to have to

have way on your conscience for the rest of your life, if you're a part of something like that. I

mean, even just the bombing of that, the oil reserves in Iran. And like, you know, this is the

equivalent to dropping a biological chemical weapon on millions and millions of civilians. I mean,

it's going to have that kind of impact, that kind of long-term health impact on everyone who's

in that city. I mean, it's killing millions of people in a single strike. And no one in the

service or in the broader population should expect that anything is going to get better when it comes

to regard for human life in Iran. And so those are the real questions people need to be asking

themselves right now is, can you take part in, you know, not just a debacle, a stupid, pointless

war for some terrible people who are at the top. But one, that's just going to be absolutely

devastating for people like just like us. And before I ask you my next question, I do want to

remind everybody to, if you haven't already, make sure you like this stream, hit the like button

you guys. It helps boost us in the algorithm. Make sure you comment and engage that helps as well.

There's about half the people watching have pressed the like button. So I feel like our audience

can do better than that. All right, Mike. So given everything you've said, you know, and what you're

hearing, I, you know, you said that it's that that what you're hearing in terms of potential

deployment sounds similar to the build up to 2003. However, I want to ask you about something that

sounds very different. I think, you know, I was not in the military in 2003. You wouldn't know

this better than me. But the country was in a different space because of 9-11, the way that the

Bush administration really led like a good, a pretty good PR campaign for the war in Iraq for the

year or so that preceded it. And really making it about 9-11, we're in a very different place

right now. This war is so unpopular. One in four Americans think it's a good idea. The other 75%

don't. And that's before the US has even tried to put boots on the ground, right? And so on top of

that, you have, I think, a different population. I mean, a lot of soldiers who would be deployed to

be what in their 20s, 30s. This particular subset of people in the US, you know, I would assume

this plays out in the military to some degree as well, is less interventionist, doesn't support

war as quickly or as much, and just has a more progressive view of the world than people did maybe

20 years ago. So I think the country is in a different place as well. So I guess I'm curious

how similar, or maybe I should ask you different, is the mood inside the military now compared

to that period in the build up to the war on Iraq? Yeah. Yeah, you know, unfortunately, it's mainly like

a Republican party that supports the war right now. It's something like 85% of registered

Republican support, what Trump is doing. Yeah, Maggar fans too, by the way, I want to point that

out because everyone's like, Maggar's anti-war. Yeah, maybe 10% of them. You know, you bring up

an important point. I mean, the build up to the Iraq war, you know, the US government spent

over a year conditioning people to think using the trauma and fear of 9-11, which was a real

mass thing that was felt among people in the United States from a president that had a skyrocket

approval rating. I mean, what was the approval rating like in the 90s or something like that? It

was very, very high after 9-11. But the conditioning was there is going to be another attack in the

United States and it's going to be with the weapon of mass destruction. It's going to be with a

nuclear, biological, or chemical weapon launched from Iraq. That was the story. And so as, of course,

there is debate over it and this weapons and all this, that was the conditioning to American people.

I mean, they're even having people like duct tape, their windows, like preparing for chemical

and biological attacks. Like, the conditioning was, you know, I had the danger meter every day on

the news of how danger, how the likelihood of another attack. I mean, there really was this

extreme exploitation of fear and terror to manufacture consent for the invasion of Iraq.

So they did a lot of very deliberate things that lasted a long time and launched the war when

there was, you know, a lot of support for the war. I mean, most Americans supported the war when

that war started. Compare that to the conditioning for the Iran War. The real conditioning that the

American people have gotten for the Iran War from Trump, from Hegseth, from Vance, from Tulsi

Gabbard. They have been conditioning us and the American people about a war in Iran,

but saying a war in Iran would be so stupid for anyone to do it. That's why you have to elect us

because the Democrats are so stupid and insane that they will start a war with Iran. And that's

the worst thing ever. And that's why you should vote for us. So that's the conditioning that the

American people have gotten, being told that this would be a really bad idea. And so all of the sudden,

I mean, that's why there's like some whiplash because all of a sudden people are like, oh wait,

I thought this was a bad idea. And then, you know, Maga and Republicans having it like

cope and find ways to be like, well, actually, yeah, this is ending wars, actually. This is ending

it forever war. And so I think that's in a way good for the anti-war movement that they

they didn't do the propaganda operation that the US would typically do before launching a big war.

But in fact, made themselves the beacon of reason with this. And we're warning against the dangers

of doing something like this for a long time. And of course, I think in the military, you know,

different generation of people who are in right now, I can't speak for everyone in the military.

There's definitely a lot of people in the military who are think that this is a good thing.

But in my 20 years talking to people in the military who are anti-war, I've never met

a talk to as many people as I'm meeting now over the past several years. And so there's definitely

a different level of consciousness in the military. And I think that's that's something that

can be encouraging because, you know, even with the Iraq war, it took time for there to be

to build an anti-war movement among vets and among those who are in the military. And, you know,

to me, it seems like that's that's something possible much sooner.

And then I wanted to ask you about something you posted. It was a disturbing account from the mother

of a service member who said that troops were told their mission was connected to bringing

about the second coming of Jesus Christ. And this, you know, adds more corroboration to these

reports about several units being told by their commanders that this war is to bring about

Armageddon. So I'm curious from, you know, just your own anecdotal experience speaking to people.

How widespread is this kind of ideological or religious framing inside parts of the military

command structure? I mean, you know, I never encountered it. I know that, you know, there was

definitely stories, you know, in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars of like, you know, commanders or

chaplains giving crazy religious speeches before they go out on a mission and things like that.

You know, so it's not that it's it's unusual. I think what is unique about this story now is that,

you know, there's an organization that you can file a service members can file a complaint if

they feel their religious rights have been infringed on or that if they're being, you know, made to

listen to religious stuff they don't want to listen to. The fact that there are so many complaints

across so many units in such a short period of time. I mean, 40 different units had commanders

say this stuff. The second coming of Christ Armageddon thing. You know, of course, it's been long

known that there's been a lot of, you know, religious extremists of officers and service members.

I mean, others have reported on this. So that's that's not what's surprising that there's people

that think like this and say this stuff. What's surprising is that it happened so frequently

in such a short period of time. That would indicate to me that there's some kind of collaboration

and coordination between these people and Pete Hegseth is one of them. I mean, he's one of these

crusader. We have to kill all Muslims like that he's he's part of this religious extremist, you know,

crusader faction in the military. So I wonder if there's some kind of, you know, secret meetings of

these guys. You know, it's almost it's like a faction. It's like a Christian nationalist faction

that exists in the military and the question is whether how organized they are.

Yeah, it's they're pretty well organized and they've infiltrated the the military to to some

degree. I mean, there's been a lot of really good journalism on this over the last 20 years,

but it's just to hear that is so freaking dangerous and crazy and it just kind of reminds me of,

you know, it's a mirror of what the Israelis do as well with like, you know, the Palestinians are

Amalek and like you have to like kill all their, you know, loved ones in sheep. Just like to have

soldiers being told to bring about the Armageddon against Iran and then to have Marco Rubio

be like, Iran is run by a bunch of religious fanatics and it's like, well,

well, it's also like, you know, these, unless these commanders have found a way to cultivate units of

only other people Christians of their specific denomination. You know, because our, you know,

our organization, our main basis is Christian pacifists and Christian communities that, you know,

have a different set of morals than this got than these guys do. So unless they have found a way

to get just a bunch of other like-minded soldiers under them under their command, you have to

imagine, I mean, that's why there's so many complaints because they can say this stuff. It probably

makes them feel good to say it and they feel very righteous in like they're leading some kind of

holy war, but you have to imagine in a way that that helps us in the sense that it creates some

discontent and some apprehension among the people that they're commanding who, you know,

probably don't want to bring about Armageddon. I'm not sure many, only that of small

substantive people want there to be Armageddon and you're thinking you're actively bringing it about,

you know, that might give you some pause or at least, you don't believe you're bringing it about,

but if you think your commander is doing something to bring about Armageddon, I kind of

erodes trust with that person, which I think is something. Yeah. I wanted to ask you about the

possibility of a draft because, you know, the White House has refused, according to White House

spokeswoman, to rule out the possibility of a draft, if this war expands. How seriously should

Americans take that possibility and what can they actually do about that? Yeah, no, that's a great

question. The draft, you know, the US got rid of the draft in Vietnam War because the draft

led to a revolt within the military. I mean, there is, that's the only way to put it, you know,

that the Pentagon evaluated that our army is in a state of complete collapse, you know, by the

early 1970s. The military in a state of complete collapse, large part because of the draft and

the social movements and all of that that bolstered it. So they've avoided a draft since Vietnam

because, you know, the soldiers almost overthrew the Pentagon. But nobody should think that a draft

is impossible. In fact, if the US wants to engage in the large scale wars that it plans to, like

China, potentially Iran and a bigger war in the Middle East, it would have to enact a draft. I

mean, in the Iraq war, the only reason they didn't enact a draft in the Iraq war when the troop

surges happening is because they found a loophole and they called it the backdoor draft. And so it's

called stop loss. People who served their contract served, I sign up for four years, my four years

is over, you're told you have to stay in for another two to four years and keep going back to Iraq.

And so thousands and thousands of soldiers who were supposed to get out who signed up for a certain

amount of time, tried to get out and were told they couldn't. That is the only reason the US didn't

have to enact a draft to get as much soldiers as they needed to continue the Iraq war. And that was

just, that's just the Iraq war. And so that's how, that's, so we've been close to a draft before.

And the soldiers who got stuck in it would say that they were drafted in a backdoor way.

And a lot of people don't know this, but starting in December, every single person born a male

who is between the ages of 18 and 24 will automatically be registered for the draft. Right now,

you have to go online and register your register yourself for it. If you want to, you know, this,

there's very little control over it, you know, if you want to get certain federal benefits or

something like you have to be registered for the selective service within a certain age range,

that's gone. Starting in December, you, if you fall into that demographic, you will be registered

for the draft by like some AI corporation that that finds you in the draft. So, so everyone,

everyone in that defaults in that category will be registered for the draft and everyone should

worry about the draft. Luckily, that's another thing we do at the Center on Conscience and War.

You can preemptively register as a conscientious objector. And that's one thing you can do by,

by calling our hotline. The thing is right now, it's easy to do because you just sign up for

selective service, say I'm a CEO, fill out an application, send it to us, we'll keep it on file

for you. For if you are drafted, we have the packet dated from before you were drafted. When it

becomes automatic, we're not exactly sure that's how it's going to work yet, but we will have a

be have a plan before it's initiated. And so, you know, that's another reason people should,

should keep our number because, you know, come December, you're going to need to know how to,

how to sign up with us. And for those who are only able to listen to the audio of this in order

to get in touch with Mike's organization, the Center on Conscience and War, you can contact the

following phone number. It's 1-800-379-2679. That's 1-800-379-2679. I sound like I'm one of those

people on PBS asking for donations. You're not bad. They make it a job offer. I feel like, I feel

like, yeah, seriously, I feel like I did a pretty good job with that. And then Mike, you know,

finally, as we wrap up here, I wanted to ask you just to kind of go over again, what can soldiers,

active duty soldiers legally do who don't want to participate in this war? What options do they

actually have? And what does it actually mean to become a conscientious objector? Sure. Well,

a conscientious objector is someone with a firm, fixed, and sincere belief that does not allow

them to participate in war. Since 1970, when it was challenged at the Supreme Court,

it was ruled that this does not have to be religious. Traditionally, this was a religious belief.

Since 1970, non-religious moral beliefs apply. And so you don't have to be a person of faith.

If you are, that is great also. But basically, what it means is that you file a packet,

some paperwork. You have to answer some questions. That's something that done with the counselor

is not hard to do. And then once you submit your conscientious objector packet to your command,

before they even investigate it, before they give you a hearing, before they make a decision,

as soon as that packet is dropped, your command is obligated to accommodate your beliefs,

meaning that if you have a deployment order coming up, you drop a CEO packet,

the day after you find out, they are not supposed to deploy you. And if they try to deploy you,

we have ways to fight them to make sure that they don't. So that's just one option. And it's

one that's really effective. I mean, the military typically approves conscientious objector packets

when the person is sincere about their moral beliefs. And of course, there's this caveat that you

can't be just opposed to a particular war. You have to be opposed to all war. But a lot of times we

find that a particular war, it is what the trigger is. It is what the crystallizing moment is

that causes people to have those deep, deep explorations of themselves and what they're capable of

doing and who they are, who they are as a person. And so nobody should be discouraged by the fact

that it's, oh, it's the Iran war now that's making me think about these things. For example,

during the Gaza war, the Gaza war was a trigger for a lot of people who became conscientious

subjectors because they were thinking about, do I have to directly participate in? Do I have to

help fly aircraft that are going to deliver weapons to the Israeli government? And they weren't

filing a CEO because they were opposed to, I just don't want to participate in this. That was

the trigger that made them understand, I can't be a part of any of this. I can't wear this uniform.

I cannot have peace as long as I am a part of this military machine. That is what qualifies you

as a conscientious subject. And we have counselors that will walk you through that entire process and

be there for you every step of the way. There are other avenues for people right now. So if people

think they might be a CEO or they're not a CEO, but they are really not think that they've made

the wrong decision by joining the military and definitely don't want to go to Iran. If you're

within your first, and this is what we got suspended for on Twitter, just informing people that if

you are within 365, your first year of service, your first 365 days, which is probably 230,000

service members. It's a lot of service members who fall in this category. If you're in your first

year, you're considered entry level still, which means that if you begin reporting that you have

a failure to adapt, I am not adapting. The military is not for me. I'm not adapting. Your commander

should initiate something called this entry level discharge, a failure to adapt entry level

discharge. That is a loophole, but that's something most people are not aware of. They're not

aware that if you're within your first year, it's a lot easier to get out than it is filing a

conscientious objector packet. There's other avenues for people to get out, but I will say too

that even if there are no more legal avenues available to you, there's a lot of people in the

Iraq war who went AWOL because they didn't want to deploy. That's a valid thing for people to

feel and feel like they have to do, and we can support people who have done that as well.

Going AWOL, if you know what you're doing, when you are AWOL, if you know when to turn yourself in

and how long you should stay gone and all of that stuff, that's something that if people are in

that position, they can call us, and we do that work in conjunction with the GRI hotline,

which frequently advises people who are AWOL. There's definitely heroic people from the Iraq war,

people like Camilo Mejia and Kevin Benderman, people who went to the military jail because they left,

they said I'm not going to war, and there's support for people like that also, but also it doesn't,

you don't have to go that far. There's also routes that you can take that can keep you out of jail,

but still there's support for you. No, that's also important, and I want to put this number up again

at Conte. If you're interested in what Mike is talking about, and you want to know more,

especially if you're in the military, you can call 1-800-379-267-9, that's 1-800-379-267-9,

to get more information about how all of this works. If you get out as a CEO, that's an honorable

discharge, you know, you keep your benefits. And so, of course, there's a lot of fear among people

of, you know, if it's going to destroy their life and things like that, you know, if you're approved

as a CEO, you're, you know, you're an honorable discharge, you're dislike, and yet it's like you

serve the rest of your contract. Okay, that's important to know. And also, I mean, you, it's just like,

don't, you know, don't be upon, and this insane, like, war for empire is just destroying an entire

region of the world. I mean, things, I'm speaking to you from that region of the world. It's literally

on fire. Like, are you wrong? Yes. Literally on fire. No, look, I mean, filing as a CEO is, is

intimidating. Things other people do to get out of, to get out of going. I mean, those things

are, can be scary. But in my experience, talking to people who have done those things, who have

gotten at a CEO, people who have gone AWOL, even people who, who went to jail because they didn't

want to go, I think I've heard from every single one of those people that all of that was better

than having gone. And I, you know, we want to provide people the best options to be able to,

to do that. But speaking from my own experience, you know, I wish I had never gone to the Iraq,

I wish I knew that these kind of things existed and that I could have, I could have done what was

right then, rather than having to, to learn the hard way. And so I would say anyone who's questioning

right now, should know that that, that questioning is not going to get any better once you deploy

it. So if you're already having this givings about what's happening, that is not going to be

improved by you going overseas, be it any run on the ground or in the Middle East and neighboring

countries and the Gulf or staying stateside and supporting that operation in some other way.

Well, my pricener, executive director of the Center on Conscience and War, and of course,

filmmaker at Empire Files, I want to thank you so much for coming on to break all of this down

and I'm sure we're going to have a lot more conversations very, very soon because I don't think

this war is going anywhere. All right. Thanks so much for joining us. And that was the wonderful

Mike pricener. Well, I just want to, before I get out of here, thank everybody who tuned in,

remind everybody to please smash that like button helps boost us in the algorithm. Make sure

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Sorry, tongue twister. And that's going to be all for today, everyone. Thank you so much for

tuning in. Really appreciate it and we'll see you on the next stream.