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Part two of my 2026 Buffalo Bills mock off-season starts right now on Lockdown Bills.
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You are Lockdown Bills, your daily Buffalo Bills podcast.
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What's up, Bills Mafia?
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It's Joe Marino, author of the herd mentality sub-stack co-host of the Lockdown NFL Scouting
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game time, download the game time app, create an account, and use code Lockdown for $20 off your
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first purchase. Well folks, welcome in. It is time for part two of my mock off season. And if you
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have not consumed part one of the mock off season, I highly encourage you to push pause and listen
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to it first because this is part two and it's all connected. Both episodes dropped at the same
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time. So it is available for you to consume. I encourage you. There's everything is very
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sequential here. So you got to consume part one for part two to make sense. And in part one,
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I covered creating cap space, handling, expiring contracts, and the signing of outside for agents.
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In episode two, this is going to be our mock draft, our seven round mock draft, and the roster
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projection. Wanted to remind everyone of some of the goals that I had in doing this. First of all,
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it's not necessarily meant to be predictive. It is full of my bias and things that I would want to
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happen. The idea is to show a path. I want to give you an idea of what can be accomplished by
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Brandon being this off season. And of course, it is Greg Thompson approved. He went through and
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signed off on all of my money adding up and player contract projections being reasonable and all
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those types of things. And again, my theme with this as I've considered all the needs of the bills
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have is I want answers everywhere. I don't want to go in and say, well, cross our fingers. Let's hope
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that we can get by with that option. I wanted answers everywhere. And so we've done a lot of it.
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And now it's time for the NFL draft piece of this. And so I enter this NFL draft with some goals
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in mind and things that I want to accomplish. I would say edge rusher was my top priority based
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on how the free agency period played out. And so I wanted to get a couple of young edge rushers to
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fill things out. I also wanted to add a player at receiver that's meaningful. I wanted to get
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a cost control young player that has some upside at receiver. I wanted to get some help at corner.
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I needed some depth there. I needed at least one piece for the offensive line. And I wanted
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specialists. I wanted to find a new punter and kicker that the bills can have on rookie deals and
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hopefully find their tandem for a long time. And so the bills enter this draft with picks 26
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91, 126, 163, 167, 219, and 227.
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Based on the DJ more trade, I'm sort of hopeful and predicting that the bills are going to trade
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out of the first round. There's a lot that we have to figure out between now and then. But generally
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right now, with the bills now missing a second round pick, I think the bills need to recoup some of
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that. They need young players that are cost control that can help this football team. And I want to find
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I want to find them. And so I do I did want to trade out of the first round. And so that leads me to
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all right, who has draft capital that would maybe want to come back into the first round.
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And I very quickly settled on the jets. The jets have the most draft capital by far.
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Including pick 33. And so I wanted to move from 26 to 33. We have the opening pick of the second
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round. And the logic here is that the jets trade back into the first round to get Ty Simpson,
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the quarterback from Alabama. And so that's the thought. And so the terms of the trade are this.
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The bills give 26 and get 33. 103. And 175. And the jets 2027. Fourth round pick.
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Now the math on the trade value chart says that 103 and 175 is enough. But because it's a division
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trade and it's for a quarterback, we got to tax him a little bit. So we get our we get their
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fourth round pick in 2027. So now the bills have 33, 91, 103, 126, 163, 166, 175, 220, and 228.
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I have nine picks now for the bills in this draft. And so let's tell you who I picked. And I'll be
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honest with you, I have not like in-depth scouted all of these players. I'm familiar.
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I've got a lot of work to do on this draft class still, but I think these are all players that
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would fit. And it's kind of the positions that I have in mind based on what I did in free agency.
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So with the 33rd pick, so round two pick 33, I have the bills selecting edge rusher R Mason Thomas
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out of Oklahoma, explosive and bendy edge rusher, not super big, right? Probably going to play in
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the 240s, but is explosive and super flexible, played at Oklahoma. And so the bills have great
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intel on him. The bills corners coach, Javila was their co-defensive coordinator the last few
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years in Oklahoma. Think the bills version of Nick Benito. That's my objective here. Of course,
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Nick Benito, a huge part of that Denver defense that I think Jim Leonard will want to player like
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that. So now we have our Mason Thomas and edge rusher. Our next pick is round three pick 91.
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And we're going to go with the receiver. Ted Hurst out of Georgia State, 64 206 pounds,
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ran 442 in the 40, two productive seasons at Georgia State down the field explosive receiver.
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And so I just wanted to stock the cupboard a little bit with some traits with some upside with
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some youth. And Ted Hurst is my answer with pick 91.
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Round four pick 103. We're getting another edge rusher. Just Sean Barham from Michigan.
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Very diverse player. He's been a rush linebacker from Michigan. He's played off the ball.
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And he's just very dynamic. I love the way he beats blocks. He's explosive. And so he gives us
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a versatile player that we can play in multiple spots in the front seven.
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With our next fourth round picks, we have round four 126. I want to get some corner depth.
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We're going corner back to Cario Davis out of Washington.
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64 194 pounds 33 and three eighths on the arms ran 441. I think press man corner with tremendous length.
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Ball skills. He might have some appeal as like a free safety. But
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if my plan is for Roger McCreary to go play in the slot, I definitely need some depth. That
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outside corner to Cario Davis gives us a young player with upside to have behind Max Harrison
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and Christian Benford. Round five pick 163. We're going to the offensive line Pat Cougan out of
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Indiana 653 11 started his career at Notre Dame. At one season as their left guard had one
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season as their center. And then this past year for Indiana, he was their center.
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Three-year starter with time at center in guard. He was the Rose Bowl MVP. I love getting a
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player that was part of that Indiana program that can give us a young player that further bolster
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further bolsters the options on the interior. And we're kind of taking a bit of a shotgun
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approach here and putting a lot of bodies in there and hoping to get some answers along the way.
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Round five pick 166. We're getting another receiver, but it's not really a receiver. This is a
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punt return. I wanted a punt return. That was a weak spot for the bills last year. And I wanted
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an answer. We're getting a big time answer here in Caden, Wet Gen from Iowa. 5993 pounds,
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ran 447, tremendous return. On punts, 55 career punt returns, 46 fair catches, so a ton of
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experience. Only had one month, 17 and a half yards per return and four touchdowns.
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Kick returns, 57 kick returns, average 28 yards, and had two touchdowns. So six career return
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touchdowns, four on punts. And I wanted that punt return, pedigree. And we get it. We're
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solidified there. We got a punt return. And we're going to keep going special teams here. Round
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five pick 175. We got a kicker. Trace Mac from Florida. Obviously his name is awesome. Trace Mac.
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You got to smack it through the uprights. That'd be fun, right? This guy's got a big leg. For his
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career at Florida, 10 of 13 from beyond 50. Got us a young kicker to move on from Tyler Bass.
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And then in the seventh round, pick 220. We're getting a punter. Jack Stonehouse had a Syracuse.
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The bills met with him at the combine. And so we got a we got a young punter.
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Then we have one more pick, round seven, pick 228. And I'm trading it. I'm trading it to the
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giants for a 2027 six round pick. So we're going to give them a seven this year for a six next year.
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And so that's the draft class. And in addition to the players we added, I've also added two
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picks for 2027. We have all of our organic picks in 2027 plus the Jets 4, which we anticipate
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being a high fourth round pick. And then the giant six round pick, which could be a high six round
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pick and got a couple of nice assets. So here's the draft hall one more time. And then we'll get into
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the depth chart. Round two, pick 33, edge rusher, our Mason Thomas out of Oklahoma. Round three,
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pick 91, wide receiver Ted Hurst from Georgia State. Round four, pick 103, edge rusher, slash
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linebacker, just Sean Barham from Michigan. Round four, pick 126, cornerback to cardio Davis from
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Washington. Round five, pick 163, interior offensive lineman Pat Cougan out of Indiana. Round five,
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pick 166, wide receiver, really punt returner, Caden Wetchan out of Iowa. Round five, pick 175,
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kicker, trace smack out of Florida. And round seven, pick 220 punter, jackstonehouse out of
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the Syracuse. So that's my mock draft. And coming up next, we're going to really dive into this
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depth chart. And we'll bring to light all of the moves and look at each position group and
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what it looks like. So we'll get to that next folks, be sure to stick with me.
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All right, let's do it. Let's talk about this roster that I have assembled.
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And at the end, I'll also tell you who my core special teamers are and then what the final
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cap position is after some additional moves are made. So let's focus on the offense here.
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At quarterback, we're keeping two players, Josh Allen and Mitch Trubisky. Pretty cut and dry.
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Shane Bouchal will have them back on the practice quad.
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At running back, this one's another one that's very cut and dry. James Cook,
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Ray Davis, Ty Johnson, and of course, we brought back Reggie Gilliam.
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Frank Gore can be back on the practice squad. So really no investments at quarterback or running
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back other than resigning Mitchell Trubisky and resigning Reggie Gilliam. The only two players I
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resigned. At wide receiver, we have several changes. There's only, there's only three players from
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last year that are back and we have three new bodies. So of course, DJ Moore, who the bills traded
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for, he's in the mix, Galicia Kier and Keon Coleman. We also have Josh Palmer, of course,
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is back. And then our two rookies, Ted Hurst and Kaden Wettgen, who's really a punt returner.
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And so I would guess our, our 11 personnel, our three wide receiver sets is going to be DJ Moore
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as the X receiver. Josh Palmer opposite of him and then Shakira in the slot.
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That feels a lot better than what it was last year, right? I hope. And Josh Palmer,
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just stay healthy, dude. I think the guy can play. He's got a great skill set. Just be healthy, dude.
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And then I love that we have the young vertical player and Ted Hurst that has speed and size and
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upside. And the bills got to start doing this. They got to, they got to draft more receivers.
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You know, Brandon Bean is not really drafted many. Keon Coleman, Galicia Kier, Gabe Davis,
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like Kaden Prater and, what like, it's about it. Ray Ray McCloud, Austin Prole. They got to
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invest more meaningful and mid-round capital to start giving themselves some chances to hit
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instead of having to trade for receivers all the time and paid receivers all the time.
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They need some cheap options. So Ted Hurst, welcome to the mix. So the receiver room again,
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DJ Moore, Galicia Kier, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer, Ted Hurst, and then Kaden Wetchen, who is the
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punt returner. So we're keeping six. At tight end, really nothing happened here except for what we
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did with Dawson Knox extending him with also there being a pay cut element. So our tight end
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room is Dalton Kinkade, Dawson Knox and Jackson Haas. Lucky late two would be back on the practice
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one. I forgot to tell you, at receiver Curtis Samuel is of course cut. Steven Gossnell,
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McColle Hardman, Jalen Virgil, all released Tyra, Tyrault Shavers is probably a pump candidate
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to start the year. For the offensive line, obviously, there's a lot of turnover here. Our left
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tackle is the Unbalkans. Then at left guard, we have Wyatt Teller. Our center is a battle between
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Cedric Vamper and Granger, Ryan Bates and Alec Anderson, all players that have at least two years
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with Josh Allen on this football team. Somewhere along the way, we got to have a starter there.
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I think, and I think we will have one. The others can stay as reserves that our right guard is
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Osiris Torrance. Remember, we extended him. Our right tackle is Spencer Brown, of course,
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and then we also have Pat Cougan, who we drafted, and then Tyler and Grable is our swing tackle.
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You might be thinking a little bit about offensive tackle depth. Of course, Grable is our swing,
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but I think between Bates, like if you really had to have one, Bates can go there in a pinch. Anderson
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has done it in a pinch. And then, of course, like Chase Lunt and Travis Clayton, we'd love to have
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him back on the practice squad. But those are not players that I have initially making it. We're
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going to keep nine offensive linemen, Dawkins, Anderson, Grable, Cedric Vamper and Granger, Osiris
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Torrance, Spencer Brown, Ryan Bates, Wyatt Teller, Pat Cougan. Then our specialists,
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we have Reed Ferguson returning at Long Snapper, but we drafted Trace Mac,
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and we drafted Jack Stonehouse. And so this puts us in a position with Tyler Bass
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that we can release him post June 1 and save $3.95 million. And we are going to do that.
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So new specialists for the bills, Trace Mac and Jack Stonehouse.
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All right, that's the offense. Coming up, we'll talk about the defense. I'll tell you who my
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core special teamers are. And then, of course, where the bills cap position is after everything is
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defense. Tell you who our core special teamers are. And then, of course, where this cap position
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is at. Defensively, on the defensive line, we're keeping seven players. Two of them are nose
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tackles in crisis, Tonga, reagent signing, and Deon Walker. We're cutting Fidarian Mathisons
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in Zion Log. Hopefully we get one of them back on the practice squad. And then our five tech
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slash four eyes, Greg Russo, Ad Oliver, Sebastian Joseph Day, landed Jackson and TJ Sanders.
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And then Duane Carter and Tommy, a King Basote, they're released. So it's unfortunate.
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Duane Carter, a third round pick a few years ago. He's an odd man out here. So seven defensive
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linemen, Tonga and Walker at the nose. Oliver Russo, Sebastian Joseph Day, TJ Sanders, landed Jackson
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as our five techs four eyes with Sebastian Joseph Day also has some versatility to play in the A-gaps.
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On the edge, like true outside linebacker, tight players, stand up players. We're going to keep
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five of those. Michael Hoyt, Arnold Ebbaketti, which is our free agent signing from the Falcons,
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Javon Solomon. And then we drafted two, Armason Thomas out of Oklahoma and Jashon Barham.
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And in the acquisitions of Ebbaketti, Armason Thomas and Jashon Barham, we have infused this
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group with a ton of athleticism. We have Burst and Ben for sure in those players, which was a huge
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objective. At linebacker, we're keeping four. And this is a new part of like this style of
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defense. They only keep four off-ball linebackers. So of course, we signed Leo Chanel,
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which also adds a ton of athleticism to our rush profile through Al Bernard, Dorian Williams,
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and Joe Andrewson. That means Chris or Kiontha Jenkins and Jimmy Carolell are released.
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Then at corner, we are keeping five of those. Christian Benford and Maxwell Harrison,
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Terran Johnson for now. Ticario Davis, our draft pick that's going to provide us with some
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youth and depth. And then Roger McCreary, who we signed with the intent of him replacing Terran
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Johnson worst case scenario. We have depth and a true succession plan because it was a two-year deal.
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I would love to believe that Dorian's strong can be part of the mix. I just don't know what the
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future is there. And that means we're also releasing MJ Devonshire to Corey Cowach and Darryl
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Porter Jr. And then we're also going to keep five safeties. Cole Bishop,
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Sam Franklin, Dane Belton, Jordan Hancock, and PJ Locke. And so Bishop and Belton are our
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starters. Locke and Hancock can kind of compete to be the dine player. And then Sam
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Franklin's a core special team. So as we went through Taylor Rap is released and then one day
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Owens would also be released in this scenario. So that's a 53. I kind of like how it came together.
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Of course, I do. I mean, I went through and picked all this and I didn't have any competition from
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other general managers. I signed the players I wanted to for the deals that I wanted to. I understand
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the element of that. I use pro football focus for the mock draft simulator. And so that's a real
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mock draft that I did. I didn't fudge it or anything like that. Those are real picks that I made
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using the PFF mock draft simulator. The core special teamers, of course, we have new kicker and
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punter. But I thought it was interesting to kind of go through and and parse out like these are
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the critical players for kick off and punt and kick return and part return. Reggie Gilliam,
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Sam Franklin, PJ Locke, Joendryson, Dorian Williams, Javon Solomon, just Sean Barham.
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I mean, that's seven guys right there. You also have Kaden Lechen to be the punt returner. Jackson
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Hawes can fact they're in a little bit. I think you have a pretty robust group of potential special
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teams contributors. And some that should be very high volume snap players. So what does this
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mean for the cap? Well, as I stated, the bills have based on everything I did right up
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at about $3 million, $2.9 million in cap space. With the drafting of the kicker,
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Trace Mack, we're going to release Tyler Bass. And that gets us another $3.95 million.
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So now I have $6.8 million in functional cap space. That's going to work towards operating
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funds in the season. I also have the Terran Johnson lever. If you like what you have from
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Roger McCreery, and you say, you know what, Terran Johnson, you're cooked. After June 1st,
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you can release Terran Johnson and free up $8.7 million. So there you go. Now you have even more
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in season operating funds. The other lever that I would mention is Josh Palmer. The bills could
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release him after June 1st and free up a little over $5 million in cap space. And if they found
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somebody that could that would want to trade for Josh Palmer, the bills can actually free up
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$10 million in cap space. Now there's some dead cap they'd have to accumulate this year and next.
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I think it's like very minimal this year. It'd be like one point something maybe around
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$5 million for next year. But the 10.1 that you get in cap space right now is very real.
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And so maybe you like what you're getting from Keon and the rookie Ted Hurst.
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And I don't think you would get a good return for Josh Palmer. But you could do like Josh Palmer
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and a six for a five. And the real win is that you you get the cap space. So I like how this
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came together in terms of all right, you did a lot, but you're not completely devoid of
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functional cap space during the season. And again, I recognize the advantage that I have
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just doing it on a spreadsheet. I'm not competing. I'm not negotiating.
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I think deals could come in more than I anticipate. Although I use the foundation of like people
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that project contracts, spot rack and over the cap and PFF and Greg also agreed that my numbers
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were competitive. So it's probably a little aggressive. But I think being can pull off something close
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to this. I'm mostly fascinated with how much cap space he creates. I think that's the part
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of this that's going to be most interesting to me. Obviously, he's gone out and traded for DJ
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Moore, which is a pretty big swing. But even with that, there's still a lot they can do.
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And we'll find out next week. It's going to be exciting. You know, we're going to be covering
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it for you every step tons of content reacting to everything that's going to be going down. So
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make sure that you are subscribed. I'd love it if you took a second to rate review and share
26:43
the podcast. Let me know what you think about this mock off season. Fill up the YouTube comments
26:47
with your thoughts. Let me know what you would do. It's always fun to consider all this. And then
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we'll get the real thing next week. All right, folks, that's it. Thanks as always go bills. And I
26:57
look forward to catching up with you again real soon.