About this episode
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4cPVI9C
David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action (Dow -374, S&P -0.33%, Nasdaq -0.12%; 10-year yield 4.76% up 3 bps), with energy leading on oil up 3% to about $86 and communication services lagging. He briefly shares midterm Senate race dynamics based on conversations with analysts, noting multiple paths for Democrats to win or lose the majority and warning against overconfidence in political predictions. Housing data showed August national median rent up 0.1% and down 0.8% year-over-year. He reviews Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech emphasizing price stability over employment, asserting a healthy labor market, concern about inflation, and a firm 2% target; markets raised implied September hike odds from ~38% to ~60% and to ~88% for a hike by year-end. Warsh discussed productivity questions (including AI), tight credit spreads, repudiated forward guidance with a “hall of mirrors” analogy, and delivered a cordial, potentially consensus-building tone. Bahnsen also notes a reported 35% U.S. government stake in a Venezuela oil venture with no short-term price impact, and that since 1950 September midterm years were evenly split between up and down markets.
00:00 Welcome and Agenda
01:05 Market Snapshot
02:13 Midterm Election Outlook
05:32 Housing and Rent Update
05:47 Jackson Hole Fed Takeaways
07:02 Rate Hike Odds and Targets
09:00 Forward Guidance and Consensus
11:25 Oil Moves and Venezuela Deal
12:06 September Midterm Seasonality
12:39 Closing and Next Episode Tease
Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com
Get every episode summarized
Each time The Dividend Cafe publishes, we email you a written briefing from the transcript — the topics, who appeared, and any specific claims, with the ad reads skipped.
Email me new episodesFree for 3 shows. No card needed.
Hosts & guests
No transcript yet
This episode has not been transcribed. Request it and it moves to the front of the queue.
More episodes
