Nancy Tengler & Jeff Kilburg | 04-04-26

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Here's a Larry Cudlow Show, entertaining and informative on the Red Apple Podcast Network.

We got Nancy Tengler, CEO and Chief Investment Officer of Laffer Tengler Investments

and her latest book is The Women's Guide to Successful Investing and Jeff Kilberg,

who is the CEO of KKM Financial and Notre Dame Football. Put it right in there.

Anyway, we had a big week. Stocks Up, Dow is up 1338. S&P 500 was up 214. The NASDAQ was up

931. So it's about, let's see, 3% increase for the Dow, 3.4% for the S&P. And some people are

wondering maybe this past week was a bottom. The pullback for the S&P was 9.1% if I have that right.

And have we seen the worst of oil prices? The president has issued a very strong warning.

Remember when I gave Iran 10 days to make a deal or open up the Hormuz Strait? 10 days to make a deal

or open up the Hormuz Strait? Time is running out. 48 hours. That's Monday, folks.

Before all hell will rain down on them. Glory be to God, President Donald J. Trump.

So how does that figure? Anyway, what do you think kids? Nancy, you first, is it, do they

think there's a bottom? And what do you make of this rain down all hell? The last Pentagon push,

perhaps. Yeah, I do think so. I mean, this is a pragmatic president who understands the

peril of letting this drag out too long. And also the peril of letting the moths got free.

So at the risk of sounding like a warmonger, you know, Larry, that my son's a Navy pilot.

I'd like to see him home for Christmas. But I, and he's about to deploy. So I think, you know,

we are in the position of strength. And I think there's a bull case to be had under all of this.

You got corporate profits up margins or near historic highs. One big beautiful act refunds

are up 20% year over year in March. So that should mitigate some of the higher energy costs.

And on an inflation-adjusted basis, you know, a gallon of oil hits $6.17 of inflation

and adjusted in 2008. We're not close to that. We spend a lot less on energy as consumers.

And our fuel efficiency is better requiring less tariffs are going to, you know,

provide a tailwind to the economy to the tune of $70 billion. And then you've got a stable

job market productivity in all caps, which we've been talking about for years. You and I witnessed

it in the 90s. And I'm sure Jeff did, too. By the way, it's great to be on with you, Jeff,

big fan. And then market multiple of 19 times. So 10 years of behaving in the range.

I think we're in position. We bought calls on market last week. And I think we rarely do that.

But I think we're in a position to see stocks take off. AI stocks have been consolidating.

And I think they have an opportunity to really reignite and soar. So I'm pretty optimistic.

Best time-done stocks is, you know, after periods of decline and, you know, what follows every

bear market, a bull market. And we saw the NASDAQ enter correction last week. So I think this is

all good. Could go down a little more. But I think we're positioned well.

Yeah, the bull bear ratio, way too bearish. I'll throw that one into. I like what you said about

Scott free. You know, I talked to Steve Forbes at the beginning of the show. He made the same point.

President knows that he must reopen the straight of hormones in order to really declare victory.

And he's not going to let Iran off on this. And I think that's a really important point.

And I think basically that's what he's talking about with all hell will rain down. We're going

to reopen the straight and we're going to run the straight and we're going to run the oil

story. And we're going to run rainy and oil. And any money they get, we're going to run that.

Any disbursements, they're going to run that too. I mean, I think that's coming. But Jeff

Kilberg, do you see it the same way or are you more concerned? Well, Larry, Nancy,

the smartest person in the room. So I do agree with her. And just to add on, she's always the smartest

person in the room. She's always whatever the room is. I mean, if she comes on set, all right,

it's stage J. That's her. We broadcast. She's the smartest woman in that room.

Absolutely. Absolutely. But I really, I want to piggyback on what she talked about. And we're about

to go into earnings season. So we're looking for the sixth consecutive earnings season of year

over year growth over double digits. We're talking 13% of the forecast. But what's interesting,

and if I could jump into the options market for a second and why I agree with Nancy,

that I think last week was a bottom, this offer amp that President Trump provided us. Yes,

we need to stay on the off ramp, which I think we are. They've been given another couple weeks.

But what was interesting last Monday, when we saw really, really parallel market,

saw a little bit of panic. The VIX was over 30. What happened that day when we saw the greed

and fear index went to the lowest reading stream fear of nine single digit. We saw options

in the S&P 500. The volume surge. We saw over 13 million S&P 500 options trade. But the

put the call skew. Nancy was smart buying calls. But the rest of the knock-aheads in the market

were 62% buying puts. And when you see that type of put buying, that was a capitulation.

Now the truth conventional capitulation where you see the market have a new low. But we put a new

low on the S&P 500 almost under 6300. We saw those options. We really get offside in Tuesday. We saw

a little bit of optimism in that off ramp, represented the markets. And all of a sudden, boom,

we saw the S&P 500 go from 6366. Due to the fact that so many people were offside in their

positioning. So I think if we could get through this 48 hour deadline without all hell breaking

loose, I think the market has the ability, believe or not, to make new all-time highs in the next

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Don't wait for the markets to drop. That's asbgold.com. Which was it? Was it Tuesday or Wednesday

that the market went up 1100 points to Dow? Turn around Tuesday. Turn around Tuesday.

That's got to mean something because that was a big move.

I think it meant a lot and I think the option is market value. That was my whole point and I

had to get too wonky. But when you see a double volume surge in options and that puts you meaning

some of the people buying protection, that really kind of was the telltale to me. And then we saw

it snap back. The VIX went back down to 23. So I think people are realizing and this was also one

of the things that the disconnect we saw Crudeau go up 1215 dollars from the rhetoric from President

Trump on Wednesday evening and what happened? The markets recovered. They were down 2% overnight and

they went back to even actually snap the 10 week, almost 10 week losing streak for the S&P 500.

So we ended the day positive because the market is bottom in before the solution is truly presented.

So I think that's important and that typically happens in all conflicts going back decades and decades.

The market turns around first. You know it's interesting Nancy on that point. The market turns around

first. I think that's right. There's a lot of wisdom in the market. There's so many bears and the

bearishness I think has a lot to do with the Trump derangement syndrome where the media coverage

of the war is so bad. I mean with some exceptions. I mean Fox is an exception. Newsmax is an

exception but by and large the media coverage is anti-war. We're failing everything's bad. Wall Street

I think is guilty of that. This you know once upon a time Wall Street was a lot different than it

is today and the liberals on Wall Street they're all making such bearish cases that it's so bearish

it's going to have to be bullish because their missing the market is sending a different signal

than the you know the gurus the portfolio managers the geniuses who talk to the Wall Street Journal

or the New York Times or CNBC they're wrong. They're going to be very wrong I think.

No I agree completely and you fact you know there was a cover on the economist where it's

that advantage you're on with a hand around like a sort of a neck I guess is what it was best

to represent and that's just below me. I think when I go I don't know if you have the same way

that when I go to conferences there are a awful lot of very young people who have only lived in

the world where you know bond prices go up and yields go down and we have you know moral hazard

intervention lack of moral hazard intervention from government and so when we get in actual crisis

the algorithms read the headlines the hedge funds jumped in and add to the volatility and for me

that's an opportunity I mean it it kind of makes me crazy at times but it's an opportunity to

buy great companies on sale and that's what we did during deep seek. I mean remember we were in

a NASDAQ fair market in the first quarter of last year we were in buying hand over fist picking

off names like Nvidia at a hundred and eight dollars share Palantir at ADA Tesla 240 even with

the pullbacks these names are up significantly and I think that's that's where you have to you know

you have to have some experience in dealing with geopolitical shock or you know headline news and

you're right it's all negative all the time and that that will drive the markets in the near turn

but again not for the long term and that's the opportunity and I think Jeff Kilberg you're right

the earnings profits of the mother's milk of stocks you sort of keep your eye on the earnings

in a way you should worry about the politics or the military or the war I know you have to look

at that but in a sense the earnings are more important that's the message you have to watch

the earnings are coming in great you're right double digits the outlook forward earnings

very very good but 335 something like that that's a 19 times earning multiple just that's the

key point people miss that profits are everything in this game and I'd add on that people

don't realize but this Iranian conflict that we're finally fixing after 47 years of them screaming

that to America we are going to see a deflationary period Larry we're going to see energy cold down

people are re-routing supply chains and you're going to see energy not be at 50 60 dollars in

Crilis give me a 40 or 50 dollars and that is the solution that I get so excited about and that's

why we're going to see this bull market go again for another fourth year and that's why I get

excited about Nancy brought the opportunity look at the dispersion we've never seen dispersion

between the number one S&P 500 sector being energy and the worst being financials that's a 50%

performance dispersion so we're picking up names like you know Duke Energy and Marathon of

Troin we've been looking at the Johnson Johnson the essential 40 ETF that I run those are big blue

chip names and this broadening out of the stock market we're just tackling it we're so excited

because we see the back half year once we get through this solution is going to be so

surprising to the bear and I can't wait to kick those bears in the teeth and we make you all

time highs here in the next two you know fabulous you know people in the oil industry you know

if you talk to the trade group and some others they'll say that production costs marginal costs

to produce the extra barrel of oil is somewhere in the low to mid 60s okay we're over 100 now

but I had dinner I'm not going to say with whom but I had dinner with a very senior executive

of an enormous oil company okay I'll leave it at that who told me that they can make money

at $35 okay $35 all right so your point about 40 to 50 may seem a long stones throw from where we

are now but you know what it's in the mix you're exactly right it's in the mix Nancy you know I'm a

big follower of Eddie Ardeni not for political stuff but I mean he's just gives you great stock

stuff and he's saying on these 200-day moving averages the worst hit and therefore the cheapest

might be consumer discretionary financials and info tech just wondered what's thought about that

no 112 yeah we've been adding to consumer discretionary means trying to span both the high

income consumer and the lower income so we have been buying things like Ulta which and TJ Maxx we

also own a number of other names in the group not the least of which is Amazon and you could

also argue that and Walmart even though that's a staple you could also arch the apples of consumer

discretionary but and we've held that is in our info tech holdings as kind of the p-bill of

technology names very defensive and then we're overweight and have been adding to technology so

a little different than Jeff and RETF TGLR we were selling our trimming not selling trimming about

20% of our energy holdings and buying up some of the beaten down tech names like Microsoft

adding to some of the infrastructure names and trimming back names that have been done really

well for us like land research so it's you know I investing about being mostly right so that's my

goal and that's how you compound into the you know the top death styles or percentiles Jeff Kilberg

I got a little less than a minute bank stocks I mean they're profitable and capital requirements

are coming down with deregulation from the Fed what do you think of banks financials

I specifically like JP Morgan we're ending that position but I'm going to go back to your dear

friend and my former football coach Lou Holtz unfortunately he's been passed but he had an acronym

Larry he had an acronym with WIN and it's said for what's important now for all the investors

listening now what's important now is the Nancy's point rebounds reposition understand owning great

companies at great discounts is we're going to be positioned to make money in 2026 so the coach holds

in all the people of the lives that he affected mine being one of them grateful for for everything he

gave to me but I think that acronym WIN you have to take that with you what's important now so

first of all he affected my life I loved him I served on two boards with him I mean he was just an

extraordinary person and you know a man of great faith which I just loved and always helps everyone

around you when you have a person of great faith worth we're thinking about here on Easter right

a wonderful holiday happy and holy kids you're great Nancy Tengler the smartest woman in the room no

matter what the room is and Jeff killed Jeff kill birth thank you for bringing up coach Holtz

terrific stuff you're both wonderful and the market's going to be very very good as America marches

on the Larry Cudlow show on the Red Apple podcast network