NBA Contender Rankings: Spurs & Nuggets behind OKC, how dangerous are Celtics, Lakers, Knicks?

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The volume.

Alright, welcome to Hoops tonight here at the volume.

I'm having Wednesday, everybody.

Hope all of you guys are having a great week.

As promised, today we are doing contender rankings.

Throughout this entire season, we've done kind of rudimentary contender rankings.

I really want to do a deep dive as we divide these teams into the tiers that I think makes the most sense as we head into the postseason.

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Alright, let's talk some basketball.

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Alright, let's talk some basketball.

So again, I spent most of this season keeping our contenders in just two tiers.

Top tier contenders and second tier contenders.

Essentially teams with a really good chance to win the title and teams with a chance,

but with a relatively small chance compared to the teams that were in those top tiers.

Right.

But in these last two sets.

So today and then we'll do something the weekend of the play in tournament.

We might have a special guest for that as well.

I will stand by.

I'll keep you guys posted on that.

But we're going to have two more sets of contender rankings for the end of the year.

I really wanted to get more refined in these last two.

So we're still just doing the top 10 contenders in the league,

but I now I have them split into five different tiers.

So without any further ado, let's start with our first tier.

I'm calling this tier by far the safest bet.

And there's one team in it.

That's the Oklahoma City Thunder.

They're currently plus 135 to win the title on hard rock bet.

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The issue is that plague to the thunder during their mid season downturn.

Feel like the distant past, they've won nine in a row now.

And they've gone through an absolute gauntlet.

They beat Denver twice.

They beat the Celtics.

They beat the Timberwolves.

They beat the Knicks and Madison Square Garden.

So five of those nine teams have been against teams in the top six on this list.

And that win last night in Orlando was a very impressive one as well.

Shake goes to Alexander.

Looks like he might just be the best player in the world right now.

Shay has hit a whopping 10 clutch field goals in this nine game streak,

including five clutch threes as the thunder have gone six and out.

Obviously in their clutch games during the nine game winning streak.

They also had a completely different look than they had this time last year,

even just a few months ago, which I think will give them more versatility in the playoffs.

And that is they're more shooting based looks.

Thanks to J will who's been shooting the absolute shit out of the ball from three.

He's at 46% on six attempts per game over this nine game streak.

And then Jared McCain who's brought a dynamic movement shooting and kind of like a nail help beating spot up threat off the ball as well.

I think this particularly matters for things like the San Antonio matchup.

The San Antonio matchup has been problematic for the thunder.

We would all be foolish to pretend as though that problem has just gone away.

Okay.

I personally have no idea what would happen there.

The spurs beat their ass over and over again.

The thunder did get one big win at home, but the last two time,

the last time these two teams played each other at relatively close to full strength was over two months ago.

And I actually think both teams have gotten dramatically better since then.

But there's under at least have an option now to throw in that matchup that they didn't have in their previous matchups.

They could put more shooting on the floor.

They have a much better shooting five than they've had at any phase over the course of the last few years.

Chet Holmgren also has been shooting the ball pretty well over the course of the last few months.

And that they could actually force Oklahoma, excuse me, force San Antonio and Wembee in particular to guard in space more than he did in some of their earlier matchups.

The biggest question mark right now for Oklahoma City is now jaded.

This recurring hamstring strain from hell is having very much that Aaron Gordon type of season that we've seen out in Denver.

So we just don't know how explosive he'll be.

You want to get to the playoffs or how in rhythm he'll be with things like his jump shot.

But then the explosion of AJ Mitchell has given them pretty good insurance on that concept.

And he might even be better at puncturing the defense with drives than J Dub was in slow down half court environments.

Jada obviously a very devastating rim attacker in transition and in semi transition, but against the set defense his first step gives them the ability to puncture the defense.

So I'm less worried about that than I typically would be.

They have the best defense.

They might have the best player.

They're incredibly deep with role player talent.

I don't think they're unbeatable or anything like that.

I don't view this team the way that I did the 2017 Warriors for example, but to put it very simply.

If you had to bet your life savings with even odds on one team to win the title, the Thunder are by far the safest bet.

And so I'm putting them in a tier of their own at this point.

Now the next year I'm calling this tier teams that meet the criteria.

And might be the favorite in any non Oklahoma city season.

These two teams check all the boxes you look for when you're looking at top tier championship contenders like a bonafide world beating top tier superstar.

I think there are four guys this season that have been able to sustain play at that top tier superstar level.

Shay, Victor Wemanyama, Nicola Yochich and Luca Donjish.

I think having one of those guys is basically a prerequisite to being a top tier championship contender.

Unless you have an overwhelming ofwhelming talent advantage compared to your opponents like the 2024 Celtics did.

I think you need to have a truly elite unit in a high enough ceiling on the other end of the floor to win four rounds, which both of these teams have.

You need versatility for the different types of opponents you might face.

You need athleticism shooting death.

These teams have all of those things.

It's just that Oklahoma City is the defending 68 win champ who looks even better than they were last year.

So as I mentioned in the name of the tier, these two teams might be the favorite in any non Oklahoma city season, but alas, we're in the Oklahoma city season.

These two teams are the spurs and the nuggets.

I actually put the spurs at number two and the nuggets at number three now to be clear, I don't view any significant difference between the two teams.

I don't think the spurs are definitively better than the nuggets or vice versa.

I'm ranking the spurs at two because of seating.

There is a very good chance that San Antonio can avoid Denver all together and just play Oklahoma City.

Whereas it is a near certainty that Denver will have to play both of them.

Why?

Because if the Lakers beat Houston tonight, which I believe they will, but we'll see.

The Lakers will effectively have a three game lead on the entire middle tier of the Western conference.

Thanks to them having the tie breaker against Denver, Minnesota and Houston if they win tonight.

So it's not out of the cards for Denver to go on a streak and somehow pass the Lakers and the standings Denver has a much easier schedule down the stretch.

The Lakers are about to go on this road trip where they play Miami on the road or Lando on the road to Troy on the road.

And they have a couple of Oklahoma City matchups that aren't quite at the end of the year.

Whereas Denver has a couple of games with the spurs and thunder that are literally their last couple of games.

So like those games might involve some resting.

So it's not out of the cards for Denver to go on a run and get all the way up to the three seed.

But it's a three game lead, which is a lot.

If the Lakers wins tonight, a three game lead is a lot with 14 games left.

So to give you an idea, let's say the Lakers go nine and five.

The nuggets would have to go 12 and two down the stretch to pass the Lakers and get the three seed.

So again, if the Lakers wins tonight, and that's why that game is so important, if the Lakers wins tonight, Denver will almost certainly be a four or a five seed.

If there are four or five seed, they would potentially have to face Minnesota in the first round, Oklahoma City in the second round and San Antonio in the third round.

Right.

Whereas San Antonio could play a seven seed, somebody like Phoenix, for example, or a clippers team that traded away a couple of their best players at the deadline, and then have to play one of those flawed teams, someone like the Lakers, someone like the rocket, someone like the Timberwolves, and then just have to play the winner of Denver versus Oklahoma City.

So that caused me to put the spurs at number two, even though I don't necessarily think they're better than Denver.

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The spurs right now are plus six fifty to win the title on hard rock bed as I have them at number two.

This team has been on a month's long ass kicking spree. They've lost two games total since the beginning of February. They're 19 and two in that span.

That's record in the league number one offense in the league number four defense in the league.

Number five rebounding team in the league in that span when he is looking like a legitimate candidate for best player in the world.

No one's going to give him that credit until he does something in the postseason and that's how it should be, but he's certainly playing at that level right now.

He's been shooting the shit out of the basketball for weeks now, which is dramatically increased his scoring volume in his last eight games.

He's averaging 27 points and 11 rebounds on outrageous efficiency with over five stocks per game.

And I can't actually overstate his defensive impact. It's what allows the spurs to not need to play some of those.

Hyper athletic forwards that help you anchor the defense or anchor your rebounding, but that can't score or that are generally limited as shooters.

Instead, they can play a jump shooter at the four, someone like a Julian champagne or a Harrison Barnes, and then they can play a bunch of guards at the one through three.

That gives the spurs a deadly combination of a top tier defense and this super fast and skilled offensive lineup basically at all times when when he's on the floor.

It's what allowed them to be the best offense in the league over the last couple of months.

And as I've had, as I've said and broken down many times over the last couple of weeks, I'm less worried about the spurs youth than some other young teams in NBA history because so much of their success comes from sheer game breaking talent like when these defense rather than from experienced ball handling, which is usually where things fall apart for young teams.

That's not to say I'm zero percent worried like as we've discussed, I have concerns about guys like Steph Castle going cold from three in the post season, Devon Vassel even just because he hasn't been in that environment before, when be if he goes cold from three, that could be a big drop off for their offense.

I think they'll see some really passive game plans, some game plans that are designed to force their most streaky or their worst shooters to shoot.

But overall, if you ask me right now, hey, Jason Oklahoma City doesn't win the title this year, who do you think is most likely to win it?

I'd lean slightly towards San Antonio because they have the inside track in terms of their level of competition relative to team like Denver.

Number three, Denver Nuggets plus 700 right now to win the title in hard rock bet. It's been a super weird season. They've been decimated by injuries.

They're below 500 in clutch games, which is straight up bizarre. That's caused a lot of the national media, in my opinion, to kind of dramatically underrate this team.

But I still think they check all of the boxes of a top tier championship contender. They have a top tier superstar in Yokech.

They have a truly elite unit in their offense. They've been the best overall offense and they're the only team in the league right now with an offensive rating over 120 and they have the best half court offense in the NBA.

It's not only to Yokech, but also Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon both being the best versions of themselves offensively that they've ever been and they have a depth of jump shooting talent.

They've been a bottom 10 defense this year overall, but most of it has to do with the fact that their forwards have been injured most of the year.

They're starting lineup in 450 possessions this year, not only has a 126 offensive rating, but as a defensive rating of 106, which is really good.

So when they've been healthy and they have came Johnson and they have Christian Brown and they have Aaron Gordon, they've been very good defensively.

So I'm not as worried about their defense relative to what they've statistically done this year on defense and especially relative to how good they are on offense.

Again, they are murdering teams with their start like how many times you see starting lineup with a plus 20 net rating.

That's what the Denver nugget starting lineup is doing. They're a very good rebounding team.

They have a shit ton of playoff experience. They just check all of the boxes by only real concern about Denver relative to previous seasons is their perimeter defense versus quick guards.

I think they're really well set up for big ball handlers because of all the guys like Spencer Jones and Christian Brown does really well against bigger forwards.

Aaron Gordon is an option in that respect cam Johnson can do some of that Peyton Watson can do some of that.

So they're well equipped for the Luca types LeBron, Kauai Kevin Durant, Julius Randall, some of the bigger ball handlers that you'd see in the Western conference.

But they are not very well set up to handle super quick guards, which is what San Antonio and Oklahoma City bring to the table.

In Oklahoma City in particular, they're not as vulnerable to the gimmicky defense stuff that Denver was able to pull off against them in the playoffs last year.

That has shown up in their matchups with Oklahoma City this year. Oklahoma City has looked way more comfortable on offense this year against Denver than they have in their previous matchups.

The bottom line is once again Denver checks all the boxes, but this cursed season has given them not only historically great Oklahoma City team standing in their way, but a brutal playoff path.

Thanks to the injuries like I would argue the most likely scenario right now because Houston is falling apart and will most likely end up at the sixth seed.

And because the Lakers if they win tonight have the inside track on the three seed, they will they're most likely playoff path at this point is Minnesota in the first round who has always given the issues and has literally beaten them in the playoffs before.

Then Oklahoma City in round two just beat them last year and then saying Antonio in round three before whoever they have in the finals.

So this kind of brutal injury played season has just put them in a very difficult position in terms of the level of competition they'll face in every round of the post season, which is why I have them down at number three.

Our third tier, these are teams that have a championship ceiling, but they have potential fatal flaws.

I have three teams in this tier, the Celtics, the Timberwolves and the Knicks and they all share a similar set of circumstances.

None of these three teams have a top tier superstar.

Jalen Brown is very good has had a fantastic season. Jason Tatum looks surprisingly good for a guy is coming off of an Achilles tear, but there's a pretty big gap between those two guys and the four names I mentioned earlier.

Anthony Edwards is ascending, but he still feels like he's a year or two away from really figuring things out and maturing is a basketball player, especially against some of the more complex puzzles you can run into in the post season.

And Jalen Brunson is a guy who on any given night can reach the level of a top tier superstar, but his lack of size and athleticism have made him way too inconsistent to sustain that level.

Like in December, it looked like he might be ascending, but then he started to go down from there. So like, I think all three of these teams would be at a significant disadvantage in any matchup against a team that has one of that Yoke Che Wembe Luca tier.

They also have a potentially fatal flaw separate from their star level talent.

One, the Celtics, their bigs can only run deep drop coverage. That makes them super vulnerable to certain types of players like bigs that can pick and pop.

We've talked about this before, deep drop coverage is extremely vulnerable to pick and pop, because if the guard is going to chase over the top and the big is waiting back, then the screener pops, it's essentially going to be wide open every single time.

By the way, this is shown up in the numbers. The Celtics have been the worst team in the league this year against picking and popping.

They are the only team in the NBA this season that is conceding at least two pick and pop threes per game this year and allowing them to shoot at least 40% on those pick and pop threes.

They're also vulnerable to really high level drop coverage beating guards like the types of guards that are all over the Eastern conference.

That specific lack of defensive versatility is something that is shown up especially in the higher profile games for the Celtics this year.

The Celtics are just six and 13 this year against teams that are in the top ten and point differential.

They have a one 19 defensive rating in those matches, so teams that are actually equipped to attack their defense have had great success there.

Jason Tatum will give them more flexibility to try to protect their centers in action, but it will be harder and harder to do as the level of competition increases.

And again, none of their centers are as good defensively as like Al Horford was or even Christophe Sporzingus when he was healthy.

The Timberwolves have a profound ability to go absolutely brain dead on offense, especially against teams that can switch and that load up on the strong side zone up on the backside and rotate well.

We've seen several examples of that throughout this season.

Even in their very successful playoff runs in the last two years, it's been their offense running into some kind of puzzle they can't solve that has gotten them beat.

And then with the Knicks, they just have these two gaping entry points into their defense in the form of Carl Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson.

To be clear, it's not all bad.

All three of these teams have really strong metrics.

The Wolves and the Knicks are both top five and win percentage against the top ten point differential teams.

A lot of really big wins for those two guys.

The Celtics have been bad there, but they also do have some signature wins mixed in.

And as I said, each of these teams does have a real championship ceiling.

I could see Minnesota mauling everybody on defense in their depth of big athletic ball handlers carrying them to the trophy.

I know a lot of people under eight Minnesota because they have had some really ugly stretches this year, but Minnesota has literally been the worst nightly effort team out of any of these ten teams.

Not any given that you could watch them and think they're literally garbage, but that was the same problem last year.

And then there they were in the conference finals.

So like I could see Minnesota, even though they've been having such a rough year, ratcheting up the intensity physically mauling everyone on defense.

And they just got all these big athletic ball handlers that can get to their spots whenever they want.

I wouldn't be surprised if they won the trophy and I know that ceiling exists in there.

The Celtics won the title two years ago, so we'd be foolish to think that they can't win it this year.

And the mix have arguably been the most impressive Eastern conference team this year when you combine win percentage and their quality of opponents, which means they can definitely win the East.

And anything can happen when you get to the finals.

So they certainly can win it.

But again, the reason why I have those teams below that Oklahoma City San Antonio Denver group is because they lack top tier superstar talent.

And each of those teams has a significant flaw.

Boston's inability to run anything other than drop coverage with their bigs.

Minnesota's offense completely falling apart against certain types of schemes.

And the next just have a couple of guys that you can put in action nonstop and get great shots basically whenever you want.

I put the Celtics at number four.

They're currently plus five 50 to win the title on hard rock bet.

I ended up giving the Celtics an edge here for a couple of reasons.

One, the Tatum and Brown combo gives them the best duo in this tier by far.

So like in a group of flawed star talent, they have the best star talent.

Two, they've won the championship before and have an overwhelming experience advantage versus the rest of the Eastern conference.

And three, I think Joe Missoula might be the best coach in the NBA.

So I put them at number four.

Timberwolves at number five currently plus four thousand to win the title again.

Crazy long shot odds.

I know I'm higher on the Timberwolves and most, but it's because they they have given us so much bad data this year with these nights where they just come out and they don't play hard.

I was talking with my buddy P.J. as covers the Lakers and you know him and I were talking about the difference between them and the lay the Lakers and Pete made a really good point.

He was like us Laker fans have been so frustrated watching the Lakers at various points this season.

Can you imagine being a Timberwolves fan?

Can you imagine being a Timberwolves fan?

And these dudes just straight up don't care to compete on a lot of nights in the regular season.

They have to be a deeply frustrating team to watch during the 82.

The Timberwolves do have a couple of things going in their favor.

Anthony Edwards is sealing is every bit as high as the top tier superstars.

When Ant has his pull up three going, he's basically unguardable.

And they match up pretty well against the top teams in the West.

The Timberwolves have won five games this year against the Thunder, the Spurs and the Nuggets.

Why? Because they have the defensive talent to match up with those teams and their athletes on offense are really difficult to keep from getting to their spots when they're actually locked in and playing hard.

I just put them below Boston because I think they might have the lowest floor of these top six teams.

Like I would be absolutely stunned if Boston lost a first round series.

I actually think they're pretty likely to make it to the conference finals.

But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Minnesota lost in round one.

And they were firing their coach and making dramatic roster changes this summer.

So they're low floor put them at number five for me.

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My team loses and suddenly I'm a dessert person door dash always comes through for me after a blown lead.

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The nicks are at number six currently plus 1600 to win the title and hard rock bet the nicks have extremely strong metrics and a very impressive list of wins this year.

They have a lot of playoff experience in general the vibes around the team are night and day better than they were last year.

I'm just completely scarred by what I've seen in recent postseason runs from them in terms of the flaws that we repeatedly see get exposed.

And frankly, they just haven't been addressed not because they haven't tried just because they're fundamental flaws in roster construction.

But still, I have them here at number six. I feel better about their chances this year than I did in any of the other jail in Bronson years.

I know nicks fans want this really bad Madison Square Garden's going to be on fire in the postseason.

We've seen that they can cause problems for the Celtics like I think they would have beat Boston last year, even if Jason Tatum didn't get hurt.

And I do have a drop off from here. I think there are six teams with like a real shot in the nicks are one of them.

So it's a far cry from previous seasons. I just had them at the bottom of this particular tier.

Our fourth tier. I'm calling this tier hardest to predict.

These are the three teams that when I was making this list this morning, I had the hardest time placing for a variety of reasons.

Two of these teams, I simply just need to see more before I can decide where they lay.

And one of these teams has the largest gap between what they look like on paper as a playoff team and what they've looked like in this regular season in terms of what they've accomplished.

These three teams are the Lakers, the calves and the pistons.

The Lakers are hard to predict because they literally just started taking their season seriously.

It's funny because I've received multiple comments in the last week or so saying things like why didn't the Lakers make a trade at the deadline to maximize this window and I just don't see it that way.

In order to justify that level of aggression, the Lakers needed to demonstrate that they were a contender before the deadline and they just did not.

And I know they had injury issues mainly Austin. We've seen just how different this Lakers team is when Austin's healthy and rhythm versus when he's hurt or out of rhythm.

But even if you take that injury context into the equation, they weren't even trying to be a good defensive team for the entire season before the all star break.

They weren't even trying to generate margin.

On most nights against good teams, even against some good teams that had injuries of their own that they were dealing with, the Lakers just rolled over and got their ass beat.

So like had they even with the injuries if they had looked at this dedicated to being the best version of themselves in January.

Then yeah, you probably get a Lakers team that puts a first round pick on the table and make some move for someone like a Nick claxed it.

Or goes after someone like an IO dissuade me, tries to do something to pump this particular season's chances up.

But that's not what happened after the all star break after the deadline, they finally looked in the mirror and they were like, let's see what we can do.

And so I don't blame Rob Polinka for not getting super aggressive at this particular deadline.

Over these last few weeks though, the Lakers have become a dead serious team.

Having a 13 game stretch against teams with a 60 plus percent winning percentage where they went one in 12 and got blown out in most of them.

They won four in a row.

And they've looked like a dead serious team trying to compete for a title.

But doing it for two weeks is not the same as sustaining it the way you need to for two months in the playoffs.

So to put it very simply, I don't feel comfortable putting them over any of these teams that I have above them, unless they can sustain this throughout the next month, especially on this upcoming tough road trip.

Obviously they have the big Houston rockets game tonight, but they have a road game against Detroit coming up a road game against Miami coming up.

They have a lot of tough games on the horizon where we'll get to see more of this potential from them.

I do think they have the potential to join that Boston, Minnesota, New York tier.

Again, they just blew up blew out the timber wolves and the nicks in this recent stretch.

They're starting to check a lot of back boxes like they have a top tier superstar that is peaking right now in Luca.

He's been every bit as good as Yokech, Shay and Wembee since the All Star break.

They have a truly elite offense. Thanks to Luca.

Thanks to the return to form of Austin Reeves dramatically improved three point shooting post also break the Lakers have been the third best three point percentage team in the NBA.

And they have figured out how to be at least a slightly above average defense.

How aggressive coverage is namely putting two on the ball more than ever.

And then behind that zoning up quality communication and rotations on the back end repeatedly in the last few weeks.

They gave Jaylen Brunson a nightmare game. They gave Anthony Edwards a nightmare game.

They turned Nicole Yokech over nine times in a single game. They gave Jamal Murray a nightmare game.

They just played Kevin Durant to maybe the most embarrassing half of basketball in his entire career.

So they are doubling the star zoning up and rotating on the backside and it's working.

It's been their best stretch of defense this season.

And lastly, they're dominating the margins now, which they were not doing early in the year.

The chance points battle. They're winning the fast break points battle.

They're dominating the points off a turnover as battle.

So yeah, if they can sustain.

I think they're in that third tier with the Celtics wolves index.

But we've got to see more before we give that credit to them.

That's what I'll be looking at in this next month.

That's why I'm saying they're hard to predict.

I need to see more than just two weeks of good basketball before I say, oh, the Lakers are third tier contender or whatever whatever is that we decide to put up.

I am shocked. They have the sixth best record and league right now with the inside track on the West three seed and the racking up quality wins.

It's like a crazy reversal of fortunes. I can't believe it.

The calves have looked extremely mediocre since the James Harden trade.

But Jared Allen has missed most of that stretch with his bum knee.

The core four when James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Jared Allen have been on the floor together.

They've been awesome. Plus 37 net rating.

But thanks to the Jared Allen injury, they've only played 76 possessions, which is a almost nonexistent sample size.

So to put it very simply, I can't really evaluate the calves as a team until I see them get a few weeks with Jared Allen in the lineup, which is what I need to see over the course of the next month.

Now without Jared Allen on the floor, they've just been getting absolutely wrecked on defense.

The Donovan Mitchell James Harden, Evan Mobley trio without Jared Allen has a 125 defensive rating so far.

They're too small. They're nowhere near physical enough.

It ain't going to work without Jared Allen.

So the calves similar to what I said with the Lakers are in wait and see territory for me.

They have a much lighter schedule over the tail end of the season, which will make it harder to evaluate.

But there are a couple of big games in there, including a matchup with the Lakers.

So hopefully we get a decent size data set from them before we get to April.

But they are very much in that wait and see territory for me, just like the Lakers are.

And the pistons are the actual definition of the type of team that everyone thinks the spurs are.

And what I mean by that is like a team that looks like a contender in the metrics.

But they're almost certainly overachieving thanks to just their nightly youthful exuberance.

All sorts of strong metrics for Detroit, seventh in offense, second defensive rating, third in rebounding.

Best record in the league against teams in the top 10 point differential. They're 14 and six this year, best in the league.

So they've arguably been the second or third most impressive regular season team this year.

I'd put them second behind San Antonio.

Because Oklahoma City has just dropped a lot of games against good teams, injuries played a role there.

And because they got their butt kicked by the spurs.

So the pistons have been the second best regular season team this year.

But they do actually fall in lockstep with the types of young teams that have historically struggled in the postseason.

I was thinking about it a lot this morning.

This year's pistons team reminds me of a lesser version of the 2009 caps.

They're dominating in the regular season.

They're led by a rising star, obviously not LeBron James, but Kid Cunningham is an ascending amazing young player.

Elite on defense, very physical.

They do have some experienced vets mixed in there just in much smaller roles.

But just like that cast team, they're almost certainly going to run into a well-rounded veteran contender.

That can neutralize some of the things that they succeeded within the regular season, specifically their ability to win on the margins.

Turn them into a half court team or suddenly it looks like their young star is the only guy who can really do anything.

And even 2009 LeBron wasn't able to push them over the top.

2026 Kade, I think is obviously a far lesser version of that.

I just don't think he's going to be able to Superman his team across the finish line.

So I say they're hard to predict because when you look at how they've won in the regular season, they've won on the margins.

They've won with defense, they've won with offensive rebounding, they've won with defense to transition like points off of turnovers.

Their ability to win in the playoffs is going to be determined by how much can they get the amount of their ability to win on the margins in the regular season to translate to the postseason.

If they can dominate the same way in the postseason on the margins that they did in the regular season, they got a really good chance.

But if really good quality playoff teams can keep them off the offensive glass, take care of the basketball, keep them out of transition, find little ways to poke and prod at their defense so they can't dominate the game on defense, then it's going to be a huge problem.

I look at it like a spectrum. Here's how dominant they were in the regular season on the margins.

Here's if they don't dominate on the margins at all and they become purely half court team.

They're hard to predict because we don't know where they will land on that spectrum.

And that will ultimately determine their destiny.

I don't expect them at all to go into the postseason and be a dominant half court team.

So how they win in the postseason will almost entirely come down to can they win on the margins in the postseason.

I think they will do a certain extent, but what extent that is is going to determine their fortune.

I put the Lakers at number seven currently plus five thousand to win the title on hard rock bet.

Why are they above the other two teams very simply they have a top tier superstar.

They have the best unit out of any of these teams.

The Lakers offense, particularly their half court offense is the best unit out of the Lakers.

Caves and pistons. Thanks to the fact that they have Luca don't you to top tier superstar.

Austin Reeves, a guy you can book for 25 and night super, super efficiently and LeBron James.

Third best three point shooting team since the deadline.

They are the most well-rounded offense of the best unit out of any team in this tier.

The calves that put it number eight, they're currently plus twelve hundred to win the title on hard rock bet.

I put them above Detroit because when they are healthy, I think they are a more well-rounded team.

I think they have better overall shot creation.

They have better off ball finishing both in three point shooting and in roll man finishing.

But they also have really good perimeter defense, especially for guards.

Rim protection when Evan Mobile and Jared Allen are healthy.

They are the most well-rounded team when they are healthy compared to a team like the pistons.

The pistons I have at number nine currently plus seventeen fifty to win the title.

They're the youngest and most flawed of any of these teams.

That's why I put them third in that tier.

My last tier, my fifth tier of our top ten championship contenders.

I'm calling this tier the sore thumb.

Because in this list of ten, the rockets stick out like a sore thumb.

Currently plus four thousand to win the title on hard rock bet.

They have all the metrics, right?

Top ten in offense, top ten in defense.

They're the best rebounding team in the league.

They do have some really big wins this season, especially early.

They've been terrible against good teams in the last couple of months.

But they do have some big wins early in the season.

But they are just profoundly flawed on both ends of the floor to have any shot to win multiple playoff rounds.

As you saw last night, when they go or two nights ago, when they don't have Shangguin,

they can reach a certain level defensively, but they have nowhere near the amount of aggregate,

ball handling and shooting and decision making on the floor to even allow them to succeed.

Even when Kevin Durant's drawing double teams 35 feet from the basket.

Kevin Durant deserves blame for that for the poor managing of double teams.

The other guys deserve blame for not having the ability to consistently convert four on threes.

It's everyone's fault.

I would put him in a Udoka into blame there as well, like repeatedly just walking Kevin Durant across half court,

instead of like, I don't know, trying to drive as much pace as possible.

Having Kevin Durant function more as a play finisher in that group, doing something different than just walking into the same trap over and over and over again.

Or Shangguin can come out there where their offense only gets marginally better.

They still have trouble handling double teams in that situation.

And Shangguin is a big target as a drop coverage big.

And has been the primary culprit for most of their defensive issues this season.

May or may not be playing heard as well.

There's a lot of different contexts there, but the best version of the team when they're healthy has major defensive questions and major offensive questions.

They stick out like a sore thumb in this group of 10, which is really shown up in their matchups against the higher profile teams in the last few weeks.

Alright guys, that's all I have for today.

As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show.

We'll be back tomorrow with some more game reaction, namely that huge showdown between the Rockets and Lakers,

which has massive seating, a massive seating implications in the Western Conference.

We'll hit some other games as well tomorrow morning. I will see you guys there.

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