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NBA lottery reform could shake up the Milwaukee Bucks’ rebuild, but will new anti-tanking rules actually fix the league’s longstanding problems? Justin Garcia and Camille Davis break down Adam Silver’s three proposed changes, including expanded draft lotteries, win minimums, and playoff teams entering the mix. Heated debate erupts over whether these reforms reward mediocrity or unfairly punish struggling franchises, with references to lottery odds, tanking strategies, and hidden financial incentives for owners.
Are the Bucks in danger of missing out on future franchise talent, and how might teams like the Utah Jazz or Indiana Pacers maneuver under the new system? The hosts raise bold ideas like penalizing bottom teams with player free agency, revenue hits, and more, questioning if the NBA’s upcoming expansion and CBA changes could create even more chaos. Tune in for sharp analysis, lively disagreement, and a preview of the policy storm brewing for Milwaukee and the league.
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Welcome into locked on Bucks.
I am Justin Garcia joined as always by Camille Davis today's episode of the show is brought
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the lottery reform.
We are looking at here in the league and how that impacts the Bucks plus there was a big
gain of the tournament last night and it brings us back to prospect watch.
So we'll share some thoughts on that as we get you said, or a weekend back to back against
two more playoff teams as if things couldn't get any worse, Camille.
But we start with lottery reform.
So Shamsharani tweeting out what late last night, early this morning, that the NBA presented
three comprehensive anti-tanking concepts to its board of governors on Wednesday.
Modifications are expected to come for each of these three that were presented and we'll
have a formal vote sometime in May before we get to the details and not to give too much away.
Did you look through any of these and say, okay, even with some tweaks, I see how this is
going to solve it.
No, my initial reaction was, how does any of this really curb tanking or does it just change
the line of where you're trying to get to?
Like, we're going to go more in depth about it in some of them trying to have more flattened
odds.
But I just don't necessarily say, I didn't see any of the three proposals and then be like,
that will fix the problem.
It just seems like we're changing the equation around it.
And especially with the strong language that we heard from Adam Silver about how like,
we are going to fix it and we've incentivized the wrong things and that's going to be gone now.
So here are the three.
And the way this is worded, I take this to mean it's one of these three, which I don't know
that we found it in this group.
But nonetheless, so proposal number one, 18 teams in the draft lottery.
So seed seven through 15 in both conferences.
Flattened odds, bottom 10 teams have an 8% chance and the remaining 20% odds are distributed
in decreasing order for 11 through 18 and a lottery drawing for all 18 of those picks.
So in other words, if you're 11 through 18, you're you're not going to win the lottery.
I know we've seen the outliers like Dallas last year.
The chances are much, much greater, you're not going to win it.
If you got a 20% chance that's shared through 11 through 18.
So it is in theory going to create more turbulence in one through 10.
And however, it is that they not flatten the odds, but distribute those in decreasing order.
Okay, I mean, maybe this is just going to lead to more of what we saw last year with Dallas
and teams that are like 8, 9 and 10 winning the lottery.
I don't know that that's curbing.
Tanking, if anything, it's like, we don't have as great of a chance to or we don't have a
greater chance to get the one seed if the number one pick, what am I trying to say?
We don't have the greatest chance to get the number one pick if we're far and away the worst record.
But as long as we're bad, we got a pretty good chance.
And that's what I kept coming back to with this last reform that we saw.
So there's that one.
I'll get your thoughts on all three of them in a second here.
Number two, 22 teams in the lottery.
You use the two, you use a two year record, which we've heard this one before.
So it seems like it's something that they really are insisting on doing.
But a two year record seeds seven through 15 plus the four first round exits in both conferences.
So the eight teams that lost in the first round are thrown in there.
Lottery teams would reach a minimum win total floor each season.
He threw out 25 wins as the example.
So if a team falls short of the floor,
you're not slotted in that group that has the highest percent chance to win the lottery here.
Top four drawn as part of a lottery as it is currently.
So basically we're using a two year record.
We're increasing the size of it.
We're keeping it flattened at the top four.
But if you don't win a certain amount of games,
you're not going to get to be a part of the top four.
So that's number two.
And then lastly, number three, 18 teams in a five by five lottery.
Bottom five teams have equal odds for the top pick.
Lottery reform for picks one through five.
They're formed for one through five.
Bottom five teams have a floor at 10.
Those that fall out of the top five get sorted in a separate drawing.
That one is the most convoluted and confusing.
The second one where we have the
the win floor, including teams that lose in the first round
is my one interesting takeaway from there.
But I know it's more confusing to hear this,
explain to you then.
See, it champs tweeted it.
I just, I saw this and I was very disappointed with again,
how strongly Adam Silver worded things that like,
change is coming and we're going to fix this.
That I look at this and I say,
you tweaked it.
I don't know if you fixed it.
Exactly.
Because again, what is the problem in the NBA with tanking?
And if you look at what the problem is,
it is that teams are trying to pull the strings
and make their teams worse to lose more games
in order to get better draft positioning.
The idealized version of how the NBA would be played
is that teams aren't pulling the strings.
They're not sitting key guys in the fourth quarter.
They're not sitting guys out of games completely
because of injuries that they could generally play through
or little tweaks that they could play through.
It would just be like, if your team is bad,
you tried your hardest, you just did not have a good year
because your team is bad.
I like the Milwaukee bugs this season.
The bugs this season until maybe the last week,
if you want to like try to get conspiracy, brother on things,
that was the idea.
Like this team is just bad, okay?
And now here they are,
they're going to be a lottery team,
not so much what you've seen in Utah so far.
You can even point to the Pacers.
Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.
Utah's not, no, Utah's not tanking.
They're done tanking.
So they say, so they say,
but like that's the problem.
And all three of these different proposals,
one, they're kind of convoluted where it's like,
okay, what exactly is happening here?
They're all kind of confusing.
I think the first one is the most simple to the point of like,
hey, this is what we're going to do.
We're going to change it this way.
But I don't think that I really like playoff teams
being in the lottery process because it seems like no matter
which of these three proposals you hit,
playoff teams are going to be in the lottery process
going forward.
And I mean, you can say,
playing is a really, you know, playoff,
but still like it's,
I don't love any of these.
I don't think any of these really fix tanking.
Like you do flatten some out so you might say,
hey, I don't have the incentive
to try to be as bad as I possibly can,
but now I just want to be,
you know, in the 10 worst teams
or whatever the case might be.
I just, I don't think this fixes the problem.
So this is, this is good because we have different opinions on this.
So I'm going to see if I can convince you
to come over to my side coming up after the break.
And as we mentioned, there's a big, big game
that took place last night with a lot of players,
mainly from one team that figured it be NBA players
and could be there when the bugs are picking.
So we're sure our thoughts on what we saw last night
between Arizona and Arkansas next.
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So number two here and your thoughts on including
playoff teams in the lottery.
I completely disagree.
I think that's what we're looking for here
because it is something that I have long maintained.
And I believe I believe they do something similar to this,
if not this identically in the WNBA already.
And WN does account for the last two years in their lottery odds.
OK, so but including playoff teams.
I'm on board with because I always thought it was those
teams that were kind of in the middle.
Those are the teams that should be rewarded.
That those are the teams that you're not quite there yet.
You're clearly doing somewhat of enough or fall on
enough to try to improve yourself.
So you're the ones that we're going to give a boost to.
Now, I understand that creates a whole separate conversation
and a socio-economical one as well that you can look at and say,
like, well, why aren't we helping our poorest?
Little different in the NBA where look, if this is how you're
going to treat it.
And I do think if this is what we're going to do,
there needs to be a level set.
And it's not.
It can't be it's going into effect this year.
So tough.
Like if you're the Kings, not so much the jazz,
because they were the team that has the resources to do this.
But if you're the Kings, if you're potentially the Bucks,
you know, like those types of teams,
not the Pacers too, because of their future,
you need a little more heads up than this of like,
hey, this is changing.
And you are going to have to be smart about your hires,
which frankly, this should be the case as is.
We should hire people that know what they're doing.
Not so much.
I like this guy when I grew up or this guy's just really fun hang
and good to be around.
Let's hire people that know what they're doing that have a plan,
that have a track record or at least have shown.
Here's the research that we put into it.
Here's the things that we've spotted and identified in the game.
Here's how we have to build our roster knowing
we're not a free agent destination.
So at least a couple years of heads up.
But again, Adam Silver could turn this and say,
why weren't you doing this all along?
But those teams in the middle,
where you can take that next step,
those are the teams that should be rewarded.
To say, okay, we're creating our next group of star teams here.
And if you don't follow that path, I don't know what to tell you.
Like, we can't help you if you can't help yourself.
So I can hear you to a degree because the teams that you're highlighting
in the middle are theoretically the type of teams
that should be rewarded for the not tanking of like what I was saying.
Like ideally, it's everyone is trying their hardest.
You're just not good enough.
So you need the extra help.
But if you're also including those teams in the middle,
which to your point, there have been arguments of saying,
hey, the most dangerous place to be in the NBA
is actually in the middle because you don't have as many resources
to either find your way to the top or even kind of bottom out
to be able to get that talent you need to take the next step.
But if you're adding in these teams from the middle
and you're one of the teams that's at the bottom,
it again decreases your odds at the bottom of trying to get your guy
to even make it to the middle to then make it to the top.
It just adds another level of, it adds more up and more screwed.
And we're stuck here.
Yeah, like if they're on top of that too,
thinking about if they do just institute this change
to your own effect next season, which from everything
Adam Silver has been saying, it's going to happen.
So pick swaps be damned.
It does not matter what you have already traded out.
We are now going to go in effect with this method,
with all of these other draft picks and all of these other things
out here, like I'm surprised that the low hanging fruit
of just like pick protections, we're starting to do things
in this line of like, we're not going to incentivize you
like Dallas last year or even Utah where it's like,
hey, we know you're trying to remain in the top eight
to keep this draft picked.
Like even that aspect of it, which was like the low hanging fruit
in my opinion, we didn't even get there.
But including playoff teams, I think that just continues
to stack the odds against those teams at the bottom.
And yes, teams in the middle need help too.
But do they need as much help as the ones at the bottom?
So the interesting part too is the two-year record.
I mean, that shouldn't impact Utah next year,
even though they're not tanking and we were told coming into the season,
they're not going to tank this year.
They're certainly not going to do it next year.
I almost want to see them do this just to see that stand off
with Adam Silver of like, what are you going to do about it?
We're tanking here to increase our chances again
to add another piece here.
But Utah would be a team that I think you would pluck out of there.
Indiana would be a team that would get plucked out of there
because in theory, they're going to be much better.
They won't have the season from Hell with injuries,
Tyree's Halliburton's back.
They'll actually play a V2 Zubat's and they could get the number one
pick in the draft.
So that team's going to be removed.
Washington, I think, is going to be more competitive at worst,
but still a lottery team.
I would guess in the Eastern Conference.
So honestly, that more than anything
is what makes this season more important for the Bucks that
there was a chance as it was that this year was going to be
the last of the good eat and so to speak.
And then things start to change next year.
If that were the case and if you just plugged right along
and you were the seventh seed and you reached the playoffs
and it's another first round exit,
but you were a mediocre 43, 44 win team somewhere around there.
And then next year, the bottom falls out.
You don't benefit as much.
So in that sense, hey, we at least got a head start on this.
If we're going with the two-year record,
which I think they're doing that
given we've heard so much smoke about combining multiple years.
But in this proposal of mine to do something,
to juice the mid teams,
those teams that we'd be talking about
in terms of fixing and getting the most help to,
those would be teams like right now,
depending on where you would start it.
If you said eight through the non-playoff teams,
eight through whoever fails to make the postseason,
we'd be talking about Chicago, Milwaukee,
Golden State, Portland, the Clippers, the Heat,
the Hornets, the Magic, the Suns.
Like that would probably be the cutoff.
And one or two of those teams would not be in there
because of who the results of the plan tournament.
But like all the way up until either Phoenix or Toronto.
Like that's the group of teams.
And again, those are teams outside of the Bucks and Bulls
that have been very competitive this season.
And have shown you like, they'll have stretches where they look pretty good.
They'll have stretches where it's just like,
yeah, this team's not as good as those other teams.
So in helping those teams,
you're building a stronger quality of each conference here.
How do you address the bottom 10 or the bottom eight,
whatever the cutoff is going to be?
I agree there's something that does need to be done there,
not so much through the draft.
I don't have the research on it,
but it is worth digging into those types of teams.
How frequently does that premier like top five pick stay with that team,
you know, with Brooklyn, with the Wizards, with the Kings, with the Jazz?
Mavericks a little tricky because of either Stair,
they trade them in a surprise.
But like you would have to do something else
that whether it's some type of provision or like,
those teams, you get an extra like exception to use
and add it on to your mid level that you can add to bring in another player
or your mid level can be more to pay for another player.
And like before you would say,
well, isn't that going to incentivize teams to be bad of like,
hey, we get more of these financial resources.
You know, we've also kind of seen for agencies dead
and there's not a middle class anymore.
So like in this regard, like yeah,
it might be able to swing you one player,
but in terms of like tanking for a young 19 year old
that could be the buddy and foundational piece of your franchise,
that's what you don't want.
So if it's we tack on money to the mid level
or even if you're a tax team,
we strip that away and you can use the mid level
if you're in the bottom five or something like that.
There has to be some type of financial resource for those teams.
Yeah, like the bottom is going to still need additional help.
Like especially if you're adding more teams into it.
And that's for me where it's like,
I just don't think it necessarily fixes, quote, unquote, the problem.
And then too when you think about the fact that the NBA is
gearing up for expansion.
So we're going to add another additional two teams into the league.
And then what does that do to the talent pool?
We've been seeing the ramifications of this current CBA
and how teams are starting to navigate that.
You mentioned how free agency is feel like it's kind of dying.
But the trademark, it feels like it's really been heating up
where guys are saying like, I'm going to take the money
and understand that if it doesn't work out,
I'm going to get moved somehow some way.
Like it's going to happen.
So with all of these other things that's currently
happening in the NBA with this current CBA
and teams getting used to this and getting used to aprons,
you now throw in a new lottery reform on top of that.
And in addition, you're also adding an expansion.
It feels like there's a lot of things happening all at once.
And the NBA might be thinking that this is fixing something.
But ultimately, I think it's one making things a lot more
convoluted and difficult to follow.
In addition to like, you might be just opening up a new
can of worms along the way.
And for a team like Milwaukee, where this summer's a big one,
where you might be trading your franchise superstar
and gearing up for a new reality, all of this uncertainty
and all of this change happening all at once.
It feels like, man, that's going to be a lot to try to navigate all at once.
All right, we will get to those prospects from last night.
There's one of their, hey, what if we did something like this?
Not so much draft reform, but how to shake up those bottom five.
One other idea, I'll throw past you.
And our thoughts on the prospects we saw last night.
You know, that came between Arizona and Arkansas.
We'll dig into that next.
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All right, before we get to Arizona in Arkansas.
This isn't like a lottery reform so much as much as it's a...
I don't know that we should reward you for being bad.
And I think that's the message that Adam Silver is trying to put out there.
We should try to curb being bad.
Like you should not want to be bad.
You should try to be good.
You should try to win games.
Should we penalize being bad?
In what sense?
Well, like we've talked about...
Well, you got to help those teams like move up to the upper part of it.
But like we're adults here.
Like this is a cutthroat business.
You know the business is about winning basketball games.
If you're not going to do that,
we're not going to help you.
So if you're going to be in the low class here,
we're going to punish you.
We're going to make it so that you don't want to be there.
What if you did that lottery reform to help out those middle teams?
And then in those bottom five or something like that,
if you finish with one of those records.
And this would have to be a rolling average.
Like it would have to be a future implementation.
But we start tracking two year or three year records.
If you're in the bottom five,
your players can become free agents.
Something like that.
Like, all right, he's free to go elsewhere
because you have been non-competitive for two or three years.
That's spicy.
See, that's interesting.
I have to think about that a little bit more.
Because I kind of like it.
Well, obviously, never do it because then you have to rebuild the roster on the fly of 15 guys.
But like, what if we got nuts?
But that's so that's the thing for me because again,
I look at the whole tanking problem as more of an organizational problem.
I don't generally blame the players because when the players get on the court,
the competitors are trying to win.
One thing we've kicked around on the technical file podcast in my co-host Eric is the one
who kind of said this when he was like, I think the organization should get penalized.
Like hit them where they actually care and that's financially.
Like if your team is doing this, then organizationally,
money is coming out of your pocket because the owners talk
in dollars and cents.
So if we are trying to curb tanking in some way,
hit the owners in their pocket somehow of like, hey,
if your team's not performing to this level,
you're not going to get the full revenue for this season because you didn't hit this bench market.
Whatever the language is around it, but like if we're going to get crazy,
like we know what ownership cares about and they care about revenue.
They care about the dollars.
That's why all the conversation around, hey, 82 games is too much.
We should shorten the season.
That's not going to happen because dollars talk.
So if they're going to get crazy crazy,
like you mentioned like the making guys for agents,
let's get crazy crazy and let's start hitting the owners in their pockets because they're the real,
puppet masters around the tanking epidemic.
Yeah, I mean, you could never do this too.
And this becomes a really slippery slope, but even stuff like, look,
if that's your rolling record for two, three years,
we seize control of the operations in the sense of like ticket prices can only be this.
Like if you're bad, we're not charging fans that like and that's going to hit in the pocket book,
but like I think the main point is you want to drill home,
which you should already have the frame of mind of like, well, isn't that obvious?
No, it's not because it's a business for these owners.
You don't want to be in these bottom five.
Like we are no longer going to be
the golden parachute that like, okay, if we just were bad enough,
we could potentially get the number one pick because even the things that they've done and you
can point to and say, well, the team with the worst record hasn't gotten it.
Doesn't prevent teams from trying to get down there.
And they know like Indiana, if we finish with the worst record,
we're going to have the best chance because at worst, we're sliding down to five.
So we're going to have a really good, good pick here in a loaded draft.
Like that's what you want to avoid.
Like, yes, you should be able to look at the incoming talent and say, okay,
this is how we can, you know, reshape our franchise with this youth that's coming into the league.
But, you know, it's like you or I saying,
I could win the lottery and that's going to solve a lot from you.
Yeah, you could, but, you know, hope is not a strategy here.
And the fact that like we hope I get the number one pick,
that's not what you should be leaning on to fix this.
You need to be an active participant in your survivor here.
So fix your franchise, hire better people, hire better scouts,
hire a better front office.
Like work on improving your roster and use these things to supplement.
But now we're going to start to say we're going to make it painful for you.
If you're one of those bottom five teams, like take that approach.
Yes, something.
But again, they're going to find a way they're going to need some help.
So if it's by your, you know, opinion of like you got to figure it out on your own,
the NBA has to do something because like I could see a case two where with the draft,
if they have the playoff teams in there and they're trying to change the odds on like,
what if the team that doesn't necessarily need the extra help continues that gets the extra help
that season ends like, man, now, now the, the have not really have nothing here.
Like there has to be something for those bottom two.
Well, two America, assuming again that they're not the ones that are pulling the strings
to try to make this worse.
And then the last question I went through out there, as we get ready to wrap, is like,
is the, the tanking problem that we're seeing this year, the extremes of it this year,
is it more so just this draft class is so good?
Like, do we expect to see the same thing for next year for the 2027 draft class?
One that is not as highly touted as this one.
And is this like one of those things where it's a, it's a blip in the radar to a degree
because the talent in this particular draft is so great.
More teams are trying to throw their hat into it.
Or is this a problem that like, hey, we actually do need to change things.
And if it's the latter, again, I don't think that any of the proposed changes
really get at the heart of what the problem is.
I think it's just shuffling the deck and finding new ways to try to have teams figure out,
okay, I need to actually be this bad to try and do this.
Like, it's still an organizational problem.
No matter what the NBA wants to say about fans wanting it or whatever in the case,
like, it's coming from above, like even with Utah.
Like, Will Hardy was asked in the game earlier in the season of like,
hey, did you have any consideration of putting these guys back in the game?
And he's like, nope, no, I did not.
I didn't even cross my mind of putting them back in the game.
And I wonder why?
It's not because Will Hardy, the coach of the team, is sitting there like, you know what?
We love to throw this game tonight.
It's because organizationally, they've made the decision to try to be as bad as they possibly
can to try to get another high draft fit.
So all of this, it is what it is.
We won't really know until we look back in a few years.
But ultimately, I think this is just creating more chaos during a time for the NBA,
where there's already an innate amount of chaos happening
because teams are still adjusting to changes that have been made over the last few years.
Yeah, I mean, I don't remember off the top of my head
who the number one picks where, but just going back the last of what, seven years or so here.
There was seven teams in 2020 that finished with fewer than 25 wins.
There was six in 2021.
There was five in 2022.
There was four in 2023.
There was five in 2024.
There was five last year.
There's probably going to be five this year.
So like, in that sense, nothing's really changed, right?
What I will say is this year, you have noticed the quote,
unquote, tanking, taking place earlier.
Yes, that's right.
The message that's put out there of like, well, this is a generational draft class
that we're looking at, like, okay, so maybe we've had one other team enter the fray here,
but this has been what we've been looking at for the last close to 10 years.
And probably more than that, frankly, if we go back any further,
we did not get to the discussion of the Arizona Arkansas game.
We'll break that off into a second show to come your way a bit later as well and share our
thoughts. Really one question to answer from that matchup.
So we'll get into that on a separate show today.
So be on the lookout for that one.
A reminder, again, use the promo code march and you can get a month for free of the
every day or club, add free episodes of locked on bucks, access to the discord as well.
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I'm locked on NBA for Camille.
I'm Justin. We'll talk to you once again on locked on box.
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Locked On Bucks – Daily Podcast On The Milwaukee Bucks

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Locked On Bucks – Daily Podcast On The Milwaukee Bucks
