NEW POLL: Trump Approval COLLAPSES to 33%

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Hello, everyone.

This is JVL, here with my best friends, Sarah Longwell,

publisher of the bulwark and Lordy.

We got a poll, shock poll, as they say, from UMass.

Donald Trump, approval rating, March 2026.

33 approved, 62 disapproved, negative net.

Carry the one.

29.

Holy shit.

Megan Kelly, five alarm fire, mama.

Sarah, this is, I mean, I'll let you say the catchphrase.

We are one point away, one point away from the first line.

From what?

From the bush line.

It's coming.

There it is.

I was on spring break last week when all of the polling came out, okay?

Everybody had a poll last week, CBS had a poll, Fox News had a poll.

Trump, tanking in all of them.

This is one of the most negative ones from UMass Amherst,

but I think also it's coming out just a little later

than some of those other ones, right?

So I do think we are going to see a tail

as the, as Iran continues, as gas prices stay high,

get higher, as inflation, we get, like, increasing news

about the economy, inflation, you know, like all of that stuff,

I couldn't believe I wasn't here last week to talk about it.

It made me so upset that I was missing it,

but I was watching it saying, well, we're not at the bush line yet,

so I don't have to be on the pods, but this new, this new poll,

look, one poll is one poll.

These are good pollsters, though.

They, they are tracking against themselves, where I think they were,

it was at 44% due to the numbers right in front of you.

Yeah, I do so.

In April 2025, 44, 51 in July of 2025, 38, 56.

And now 33, 62.

Last week, Quinnipiac had him at 38 approve, 56 disapproved.

So not a lot better, not a lot better, right?

Now this is, I mean, can we go through some of the cross tabs?

Yeah.

On attacking Iran is putting America first, 27% net agree,

yikes, attacking Iran will increase oil prices, 79% net agree.

I mean, it's bad.

It's bad.

The United States should send ground troops into Iran,

eight percent.

And the good news is, I don't think we're going to send ground troops in.

I think the, the morning's truth, social tweet, in which he said,

there's a brand new regime in Iran, and there's so much smarter and wiser

and more friendly to America.

That is condition setting.

And so he's claiming that we've achieved regime change.

And then he said, you know, so long as they open the straight,

so he only put one condition on it, which is after return to the pre-war status quo,

that strikes me as a guy who's really looking into clear victory.

Yeah, although the, the Dow is up today because they think that I guess the Fed

is not going to raise rates.

But I was waiting to see what the market did after it seemed interesting to me

that this tweet came just a couple hours before markets were to open

after a really bad Friday, after four weeks of losses.

I do think Trump, Trump's, I have really quickly,

we have not talked about this tweet.

And that wasn't even what we were supposed to talk about.

But I just want to say at the open, the fact that we are conducting our foreign policy

by 7 a.m. rambling bleats from our president in a normal world,

in a world that existed 10 years ago.

Just what he did today alone, the way he is conducting foreign policy by tweet

would be disqualified. It would be unthinkable.

So I just, sometimes I think we're so inert to how this stuff is getting done.

But his tweet today said, we're very close to reaching a deal.

We have this new regime that we're talking to.

No evidence of that.

We've seen, no, you do have to wait for like the Iranians to confirm it

to know whether or not what our own government is saying is true.

But like, then he says, and if they don't, we're blowing up all,

like once again, he started a clock on us blowing up their entire energy

infrastructure and decolonization.

And so these things are war crimes.

And like we can talk, we have, I guess, slightly larger conversation

about that if you want.

But again, the, the president of the United States is saying,

oh, and by the way, if we don't get what we want to do here,

we're going to do war crime.

Yeah, that's right.

No, like, on so many levels,

what happened this morning, yes, 10 years ago,

Barack Obama does that.

He's impeached by four o'clock in the afternoon.

Can you imagine any other president just with these all caps,

all ours making saber rattling and saying we have a deal,

like there was both market manipulation contained therein,

as well as war crimes, as well as threats of escalation.

Like, it's all bananas.

It doesn't surprise me, nor should it surprise anybody,

that he is declining in popularity.

And JVL, I want to ask you back,

because sometimes I think people feel a sense of there's nothing.

And I think it's fair for some people to say 33%, 38%,

that just, that still feels too high for what we're living in.

But considering the level of polarization that we've lived through,

considering how durable, even his outer layer of support has been,

not even like the base base America first mega types,

but that kind of outer layer, do you feel like you're seeing movement,

like you're a kind of see nothing matters.

No one will abandon him type of, what do you think?

Does it make you feel like there's actually movement from people?

I mean, there's clear movement.

And there has been clear, I mean, just track from January 2025 through today.

And there has been absolutely observable undeniable movement downward.

I get caught in the little bit like, hey, it isn't enough.

This needs to be better.

And when we talk about, you know, in the age of polarization we live in,

to me, that is like saying, well, you have to understand that we're drowning.

So of course, we can't get enough oxygen.

Like that age of polarization has to break.

And if it can't break, then we're screwed.

You know, like, yeah, I, you know, I get some point.

If you can't get down to 32, 30% when all of the outcomes are so terrible.

Here's an interesting cross tap from this is approval women sitting at 29%.

By education, high school degree or less, this is the UMass Amherst poll,

down from 42% in July to 33%.

Now again, you don't have to believe that it's actually a 33%,

but it is moving downward.

And they had his approval by African Americans as sitting at 8% single to his polling has been,

has been dismal.

In fact, he's starting to be underwater with white men, like white men

or like the one thing this guy can usually count on,

but his numbers on the economy on inflation on affordability are a disaster.

And I don't know if you saw this today, but Axios reported that the GOP was weighing health care moves

to pay for the Iran war, right?

So they're basically taking the one issue that Democrats are more popular

than Republicans on very reliably, health care,

and say we're going to raid that to pay for this deeply unpopular war,

which by the way, Donald Trump promised he was going to be the peace president.

Do you see, because as I was on break,

I was watching the news thinking,

well, this really is getting away from him.

Like the Iran thing is they are, he is not,

does not seem to have found an off ramp.

When he tweeted that this morning,

I was like, what is his actual off ramp?

Or is this just market manipulation?

What did you think when you saw that?

His off ramp is offering them enough that it becomes worth their while to let him off the hook.

And I am confident that he can do that.

Like I am confident that there is enough sugar for him to give them,

starting with the ending of sanctions and then going through some other things

or he can issue some meaningless security guarantees,

they can issue some meaningless promises not to develop nuclear weapons

that both sides can go back on.

But the big thing is the sanctions.

And the sanctions are already lifted right now.

And so he doesn't even, he can even say it's no change,

which would be true, right?

He's not going to put the sanctions back in place.

And so then that allows the Iranians to exit this just again,

just objectively in a stronger position for the long haul than they were.

I think he has some coalition management to do.

And he'll have to really fear how to finesse the Israelis and the Saudis

who are going to be not super happy with this.

But he's got to get out and he's got to give Iran whatever Iran wants

in order to let him get out.

And by letting him get out, I mean, to agree to just once he's gone,

reopen the straight.

And I think they're likely to do that.

I mean, they've been pretty cagey and pretty sophisticated

throughout this war.

They hit a bunch of hit an AWACS, I think,

and they hit a bunch of refuelers on the tarmac.

So I mean, again,

their intel has been pretty good.

And there's fiscation and hiding drones and their expenditure

munitions rate.

There has been again,

like they didn't just shoot their wad right off the bat.

The first one.

This has been a deep humiliation for America.

And in a weird way,

I mean,

the sooner Trump pulls the plug, the better.

Like it won't be free yet.

That's right for America.

I mean, for him also,

but for America.

And I mean, look,

he's getting ready to invade Cuba anyway.

So, you know, so he does Cuba in two weeks.

And then all it's forgotten.

And is all forgotten though,

because it everything that I've seen

shows that the supply chain disruption that has happened

is already because this is the one thing I'll say.

And I probably should have said this on front,

because it's the main piece of analysis.

I think that that we should really focus on,

which is personal consequences for people right now

are that Trump has not lowered any of their costs.

Things are getting more expensive.

Gas is more expensive.

Products are going to be more expensive.

And that that is the thing.

That is the thing that voters are going to hold Trump accountable for.

And his numbers are likely going to keep going down,

even if he gets out of this more.

Well, things won't be better before the midterms.

That's right.

It's kind of the,

he has put himself in a position now,

he's got to get out as fast as he can.

And even then it won't be enough for a period of time.

Yeah, I mean,

so it is possible that things will be moving in the right direction

by the midterms,

but they won't be back to normal.

They won't be back to pre-war.

And there is the possibility that you wind up with,

I mean, this is Catherine Rempel territory.

But people who study private credit markets are a little freaked out.

And the private credit markets suddenly are looking a little bit like

the people who are bundling tranches of very bad subprime loans

right before the Great Recession.

It is possible that this disruption causes a larger slowdown,

which isn't just about logistics and tips us over to actual real deal recession.

And the economy was quite weak going into the war,

you know, very, very limited job growth,

almost flat job growth.

The Fed was looking to cut rates

because the economy was slowing so badly.

But the war creates upward pressure on energy prices,

which creates upward pressure on inflation.

I think the OECD was saying that looking at 4.2% projected inflation for this year,

which I mean, if you're the Fed,

that makes you very, very anxious about cutting rates.

I think they'll probably leave the rates as they are.

Well, that's what it looks like.

The Dow's gone up just a bit basically on the promise

that the Fed wasn't going to start raising rates again.

So they just leave them because they had priced in a rate cut.

And so now this is why we're going to see a correction.

But I think that the market,

like the fact that it has been so manipulated by Trump,

I think that it's got to start pricing in.

The fact that things are not going well.

Like it has been untethered to reality now for a while.

And it's only now starting to look slightly more tethered.

But when I saw his tweet this morning, I'm like,

is the market going to buy this?

Is the market going to buy that there's?

Oh no, it's almost, it's almost definitely resolved,

except maybe we're going to bomb the crap out of them.

I mean, the market is really about what's happening in two minutes, right?

The market is about flash trading.

And I mean, the broader risk is like the AI companies

that are propping up the entire American stock market right now.

If the combination of private credit

and inflationary pressures on energy costs and access

to Silicon from Taiwan,

all make it so that the AI bubble pops.

I mean, God knows what's happening, right?

We have a SpaceX.

There's another thing that's coming down.

SpaceX is having its IPO in June.

It is, everybody is like losing their minds over it.

They're like, it's going to debut over a trillion dollars.

It's going to be a trillion dollar company on day one.

And the biggest IPO of all time.

And I mean, if there's a market correction going into that,

you could just see it as being a cautionary tale

that we all look back on four years now.

Or maybe not. Maybe it'll all be fine.

And it'll debut and it'll be a two trillion dollar company.

But man, there's a lot of headwinds mounting.

And he's not out yet, right?

He's not out yet.

He's not out yet.

Which is the main reason for doing this take about this poll,

which is to say, if this is the first of the next batch,

kind of a polls.

And we're starting to see him in the low 30s.

That starts to be a real new territory.

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Now, on the other hand, it's not all bad news for him.

Over the weekend, Brendan Carr was at CPAC and he had this to say.

And President Trump is winning. Look at the results so far.

PBS, Defundit, NPR, Defundit.

Joy Reid gone from MSNBC.

Sleepy Eyes, Chuck Todd, Gone, Jim Acosta, Gone, John Dickerson, Gone,

Colbert is leaving.

CBS is under new ownership and soon enough CNN has got new ownership as well.

So Sarah, I do not believe this.

You'll have to remind me.

True conservatism believes that the chief executive should be involved

in the HR matters of private companies, right?

It should be winning for the president to force prize companies

to fire the employees that the president doesn't like or is that communism?

Do you know who was livid at the idea that the federal government

would interfere in any way in the business dealings of these companies?

A guy named Brendan Carr when he was mad at Joe Biden for like,

I don't know what, but nothing like it was like they, I don't know,

they tried to, I think they did something with Sinclair.

And I don't know, maybe Brendan Carr was right about that.

Maybe they shouldn't have been mucking around in it.

But that's weird that this same guy now is giddy, giddy at the idea

of getting random anchors fired from MSNBC.

Also, I don't think Trump really had anything to do with that,

but maybe I don't know.

But in any event, what was the most telling to me?

This is the kind of thing that just happens in the natural course of things now

that it's like that tweet.

I'm like, this should be insane.

This should be the kind of thing.

The FCC chair glowed in calling people fake news

and sleepy eyed Chuck Todd.

What is happening?

This was a, again, a quasi, an independent agency.

But the thing that struck me the most, and I know this is,

this is in your territory here.

The idea that his idea of Trump winning was CBS being taken over

by Ellison and Barry Weiss.

If I was Barry Weiss, the level of humiliation that I would feel,

the level of undermining that I would feel at the idea that the FCC chair

is saying quite blatantly, these guys are doing what Trump says

and look how Trump is winning because they now run CBS.

The idea that Trump winning is explicitly connected to Ellison

and Barry taking over CBS and then CNN should be shameworthy

of anybody running a media company.

I mean, you know, not when you're heterodox

and you're just out there being fair and fearless.

And also, I'm not a doctor,

but I have heard that shame and humiliation

are often cured with money.

I just take money and you rub it.

You rub the money on your shame and humiliation

and the shame and humiliation just goes away.

Supposedly, never tried it myself.

All right.

Yeah.

So that's what's happening.

Donald Trump is losing the American people,

but he is consolidating the media behind his cronies

and is using the power of the central government

and the legal system to bend the media ecosystem to his will.

I would say that this is a pattern

that we've seen in places like Hungary

where Viktor Orbán is incredibly unpopular among actual people

but has successfully taken over the universities and the media

and so is really trying to hang on to power.

Maybe it won't happen here.

Sarah, thanks for being with me.

Everybody else, hit like, hit subscribe, follow the channel.

Leave a comment.

Tell us how happy you are that Sarah is back

and we'll be back on the next level tomorrow.

Good luck, America.

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