NFL Draft Best Bets, Props & Predictions with Jason Gold | Stephie Smalls Show (Ep 225)

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That's like Pastor Thomas, 100 dollar bills raining down upon us.

We are closing in on the NFL draft and every year, especially for the listeners that have

been listening to this show before it even was the Steffi Small Show, knows that there is someone

that we need to have on every single year before the draft leading up to the draft and that's Jason

Gold. Find them on Twitter at Jason Gold 24 and you'll have to tell me all about it at NFL

underscore Gold. How are you? I want to hear all about the NFL Gold. Like tell me about where

people should subscribe. We also have another like a companion to the yeah. So I'll do a little

quick picture. So I kind of started this as a side project. So you can subscribe to my sub-stack

NFL Gold. All sorts of offseason bets going on over their interesting articles to just find

things that I find interesting within the NFL draft or the NFL in general. And then yeah,

I built two side tools for the NFL draft. One is the NFL draft trade machine. Just go on there

if you're looking for, if you're a fan of the commanders and you want to trade down, you can kind

of mix and match and see what your team might be able to do in the draft. That's kind of a fun

tool. And then the trade bet dot com, which basically is comparing head to head odds based on

underdog mock draft data. You can also search those against Kalshi, any sort of bet that you want

to put together. That'll give you kind of an idea of what sort of edge you have on any sort of

NFL draft bet. That's awesome. So everyone needs to go check that out. I need to check it out

even more as we're closing it. I was just kind of saying Orion the week before the draft is where

a lot of people can get caught like with their pants down because a lot of bullshit starts coming

out. And it's a really easy way to play some bets that ultimately you're just leaning into a lot

of bullshit. Is there anything that you've heard the last couple of days you're like just this

is ridiculous. I think most of what you hear a week out is like the turn off your brain season,

like you can connect a lot of dots, but a lot of it's just kind of smoke and movement right now.

So I wouldn't really be betting too heavily into all the rumors that you're hearing. Unless you

want to play the prediction market game, which is if you hear a rumor, go bet it quickly and then

sell out of it when the rest of the rat race gets to it. Now you're selling, you know, five cents

at a time, but there is a way to make a profit on doing that and just rumor mongering. So if you

want to take that angle, go for it, but you got to be on it full time. Yeah, I think one of, you know,

you're hearing about the jets nonstop. Do you have a take on this smoke? No smoke? Where are we at

with what the jets are doing? If I knew the answer to that, I would be a much richer person coming

next Thursday. So this is a really tough one. You know, I trust the national insider guys a lot on

this and they seem to be leaning towards Bailey, although Daniel Jeremiah walked it back a little

bit today. So I think it's a true 50, 50. I do think that if R. Vell Reese is there at three,

I think the Cardinals would go that direction instead of trying to trade out potentially if David

Bailey's there. My hunch is that whichever edge is there, that's where Erasm is going to go

over going for right tackle. I just don't see a team trading up to three. So you're talking about

the Cowboys or the Rams or the dolphins or someone like that trading up to three. I think that's

ideally what Arizona would like to do. I just don't think that they're going to get the package.

So I think that whatever edge doesn't go to will go three. So then the question is we've got to get

the right order there. I've been on Reese the entire time. I still think it should be Reese. I think

that their GM Moghi is doing a great job and he should not be taking into account at all.

Aaron Glenn's job being safe or not when making this pick. Now I understand if they want to just

plug and play someone, David Bailey is the guy. If they want someone who's going to be a leap for

2026 or at least better, I understand why they would go Bailey. But you look at what Aaron Glenn

built in Detroit and you could really utilize that hybrid role really well. So I still think it

makes sense to go Reese. I think you go for the guy who could be wearing a Hall of Fame jacket

at two over Bailey, who I don't think is that quite quite that prospect. But again, this is not

about me. This is about reading the tea leaves about what I think they're going to do. And I would say

we're right now 6040 Bailey, but I don't feel firm about anything there. Yeah. I think the next

question comes into play is going to be with Jeremiah Love. I saw on Lucky Rebel when I did the show

last week. His draft position market was at four and a half. It actually got pulled down at one

point. And now it's back up at five and a half. The over is plus one 25 under is minus one 65.

Like with with love, where's the earliest and where's the latest that we see him go using?

I'm not buying the smoke on him at three to Arizona. I don't see that one. They brought

in Tyler Algier. They still have James Conner. They have a lot of other needs. I understand you know,

Michael Four system getting a running back in there kind of makes some sense, but I don't think

that's the duration they'll go. I think Tennessee's real. I think that that's possible. There's a reason

he's minus 110 in the market right now to be the fourth pick. I can definitely see that. I do

think that they have other needs. I would say he's probably yeah, maybe a true 5050 to go there.

I do think that they're interested in sunny styles. I could see them going offensive line. So

Giants at five, I think is real also. I would pay that more like at 25%. I think that styles

is interesting. I think Downs is interesting. And I think that you know, you're right guard,

right tackle situation is also potentially interesting there as well. I had bet previously on

delaying to be the pick at five. I'm going to lose that bet. That's fine. It was plus

1831. I bet it. But I don't think that's in the running anymore. I think it'll be either

the Ohio State defenders or it'll be right guard right tackle or love. I can see six being a spot

that he goes in a trade up or seven to the commanders or the commanders trading out. So

somewhere in that range, I think that if I had to bet right now, I'd probably take that under five

and a half thinking that either the Giants or Titans take them slightly towards that. But I don't

don't feel worried about that. I've had this thing in my head the entire time that I think that

the Rams are going to come up for Jeremiah Love. If he gets the six in the Browns, I think that

is a trade that makes a lot of sense for them to jump the commanders and go up and get love. They've

been tracing. First of all, they've been way too quiet in this draft process, which means

less need in Chameleon if they are planning something. The last two drafts, they have tried to

trade out for Brock Bauer's and Tenoro and McMillan. They clearly want another playmaker there.

Everyone asks, well, why do they need a running back? They absolutely don't need a running back.

But this is less need in Chameleon. They do weird shit that always seems to work out for them.

And I think that's very much in play for him to need a six fit.

Okay, so now I'm going to the Rams. We're going to jump all over the place at this point here.

What about Sadiq there? Is there any way that they go and take a tight end? They love their tight ends

and then after Puka and having another playmaker there and especially getting one that is

a good run blocker is solid hands. He's only turning 21. I think in March, he's very young guy.

I mean, can we see him go to the Rams? Yeah, I tweeted this earlier. They love having teammates

that have chemistry. Both their cornerbacks came over from Kansas City. They obviously know how

to play well together. They drafted specifically Jerry versus Braden Fist from Florida State.

They were on the same defensive line. They traded up to get Braden Fist because they wanted those two

with their chemistry. Now you're talking about their first pick last year of Terrence Ferguson,

the tight end from Oregon. Now you have Sadiq potentially there. Those two obviously had played together

and worked together in 12 and 12 personnel sets at Oregon. I think that that is an interesting

pairing. Ultimately, I don't think that that is what they're going to do. I do think that that

decision comes down to either trade up for Jeremiah Love or one of the wide receivers or potentially

going offensive line at 13. I think the reason that they don't go Sadiq is that you're in this very

tight window with Sean McVey and Matthew Stafford right now where the tight ends

traditionally take a little bit of time to develop. Even like a Tyler Warren came out blazing,

he fell off a little bit at the end. He still has some development. Coastal Loveland didn't

really show up until the end of that season. The only one who really broke out your one was

Brock Bowers. For as much as I love my Oregon ducks, Sadiq is not that sort of player. I think he's

going to take some time to develop in the NFL. I don't know if the Rams can wait on someone to

develop like that. Yeah. I see someone in the chat saying Sadiq to the Chiefs and I talked

about this. I gave out the Chiefs to take a tight end at 10-1 if you're going to play Sadiq. That's

the way to do it. But do the Chiefs do that. Now I'm also growing on the cornerback route.

Like Chiefs wise, I don't have them pegged any which way. Do you have you bet the Chiefs market

where are you out with them? I haven't really bet the Chiefs market specifically. I just have them

to take a tight end at 10-1 because I could see it there. But I think we're going to end up seeing

some trades ahead that might impact what they knew there. Given the fact that they never

pick it nine and they need help immediately. That's kind of the same thing with Sadiq. Yes,

they need a replacement for Travis Kelsey at some point. I don't think Sadiq helps all that much this

year there in win now. So I think it'll be someone more immediate would be my guess. I think that they're

they could, you know, if like our Val Reese is there at three, could they make a massive move up

and they'll get Reese potentially. But if you're sitting at nine, I'm thinking that they're going

in some order their board would be wide receiver. So Jordan Tyson's getting a lot of smoke to nine.

I can see that. The last 325 there for them to take a lot of receiver. I don't think Tate's

going to be there at nine. And then Delane makes obviously a ton of sense for them. They've done

a really good job of developing cornerbacks later in the draft with SPAG. So I think that they feel

pressure because they traded away their cornerbacks that they need to do that. And I think the one

that kind of sticks out like a sore thumb is you have Patrick Mahomes back there coming off

from the injury, you'd need to write tackle. Is it, you know, Maui Noa or Fauna or whomever you feel

comfortable with at right tackle there at nine. That's kind of the one that is sticking in my head

where okay, premium position, need now, you got to protect your best asset. That one kind of makes

sense to me. So then there's also going to be a lie. This talking it's easy, you know, you know,

you can say whatever joke you want, character, concerned players where they end up, you've got

Bane here. If Bane is sitting there, like are we at like Bane's line to sing out? Well, like

eight and a half, I think. Yeah. Yeah. Over is minus three 20. The under is plus two 30.

I still, I still feel like he is going to go over the eight and a half. Will I get there by next

week because I'm letting everything get into my head, maybe, but are the chiefs an option for Bane

to go there? My last mock draft I had Bane at nine. I think that does make a lot of sense.

Since then, more news has come out about his car and off the field stuff. Do they really want to

go through something like that after having Rishi race? I'm not sure that they want to go down

that route, but he certainly would fit what they want on defense. You know, he's kind of a better

version of, you know, George Parloff just kind of had those short arms to kind of the same ice.

So I could see them being very interested. I would not be surprised. I do like the over eight and a

half. I think the only place where you get into a concern about the eight and a half is New Orleans.

And I just see them go. I see New Orleans going in a different direction there. So I would, I did

play. I have played the over eight and a half. The juice is probably a little bit too much at this

point, but yeah, I definitely is, but I like directionally. I like that. And I think the first

place that he comes off the board is nine, 10, something like that. I don't remind you a lot of last

year. I know they're very different situations in their own way, but it reminds you a lot of Pierce

Jr. And I, that line was different. This, the market tells me that they think he's going over. It

was a little bit different for Pierce Jr. last year. But I just, I don't foresee a team taking that

risk there. Like it's, I understand the teams have known. I understand the family said this. I

also understand that there's a chance maybe the family is also waiting for him to get paid when he

gets drafted. You know, I mean, like there's so many levels to it. So for me, I don't know that I'm

even, you know, plus two 30s, not enough for me to take the under here. Yeah. And I mean,

specifically for the chiefs outside of the cornerback spot, I think that they have to do whatever

they have to do to maximize that offense because that's really, that's really how the chiefs are

going to end up winning more Super Bowls. They got to super power their offense a little bit more.

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Welcome to the score bed. We're betting on game day as made easier with all the

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Smalls, I've done a very good job betting on the Saints, the last couple drafts here. I will

hand up at Mitt. I'm a little unsure where I think they're going to go this draft. I think

Cornerback is something that they could take a look at there. Is it going to be why I received

a word, though? I have where my question comes in, is are they going to bring in a guy with

medical, you know, whatever the medicals are in Tyson? Well, they already have a larvae on the

roster with also medical problem. Are we really going to have that VRY receiver room? It's a

hard sell for me. I do not think unless Tyson tests, so he has his test tomorrow morning.

If he tests well and does all the tests, yeah, I could see this being in a top 10 pick,

otherwise, I don't really see it right now. I think that if Tate was there at eight,

he would probably be the pick. I think the order of their board probably goes

Tate and then Mansour Delayne and then Ruben Bain and then

probably Jordan Tyson. That would be my hunch right now how they're stacking their board.

I, there's no delay in your opposition line out, right? Like, does no one know where this guy is

going? Is that what's going on? I assume that it will be, you know, it's circa might have put one

on there at 10 and a half. I think that just came out today. It's about the number that I would

think that he would go. Yeah. I would have set that number probably at nine and a half. Yeah.

Just because I think that the decision becomes between the chiefs and the bangles, depending

on where Caleb Downs goes. If Downs goes ahead, I think that Delayne would be the pick at 10.

If Delayne and Downs are both on the board, I think that he, that Downs goes 10 to the bangles

and Delayne goes 11 to Miami or 12 to the Cowboys. Okay. I talked a lot about this so and I'll just get

your take on it. I kind of, I tweeted about it today because I wanted to get commanders fans

input on it and why they seem like they would be kind of upset with secondary for at their pick.

For me, I don't, I don't fully understand that it seems like they're kind of split 50. A lot

of them still very much think they're getting lost and I just don't believe that's occurring.

I think that they are so dead set on three players. I'm talking for the fan base here.

They want carnalte, they want Jeremiah love and they want sunny styles. I think that those are

the three players that they're dead set on. One of them's probably, I would assume likely to be

there. One of the three will be there unless they go, you know, four, five, six, which I guess is

possible. I would not be surprised to see them go against or Delayne, but I, I would think that

he's probably fourth on the board. I'm assuming that those other and also like a trade out, I think

a trade out is a real possibility there. If those three guys are gone and it's Delayne on the board

is their number one player, I would not be surprised at all if they trade out to whether the Rams

want to come out, whether the Cowboys want to come out, well, Cowboys Washington probably won't

happen, but something like that, maybe Miami wants to come up for an offensive lineman. I could see

that happening. Yeah, and I was looking too, because I don't know, McCoy kind of feels a little bit

more commandery, but they've done really no work like with him at all. They have done a lot with

lemon. So I think if they trade back, that might be a direction that they potentially know.

Yeah, potentially Washington has been a team that cares a ton about testing and their

RAS scores. So you're looking for and specifically younger players. So that's kind of the direction

that I would go. These high RAS guys, especially like, like Sunny Sais is like perfect, like he was

like a 10 RAS guy. That's going to be like, they go Bane. I don't think so because he doesn't have

the requisite size that you're talking about. I would be, I would be, I would be very surprised

if Washington ended up with Bane. Okay. Ty Simpson, we got to bring it up.

You know what's crazy about Ty Simpson is this is like classic draft where like there was a burst

of all of a sudden, like he's going first round, he's going first round, you've heard really a

peep about him the last like 10 days. Yeah, I don't know what's going on with that situation. It feels

like it's a done deal that he's going to end up on Arizona one way or another. It doesn't seem

like anyone else is truly interested. Now it becomes, well, is there a surprise team? No, not at

least in the first round or early second round that I can see doing it. The jets, I don't think

that they're going to end up pulling the trigger on that deal. So if you're Arizona, maybe Cleveland

at 24, that's where the line is set, but it's heavily juicy over. I don't think that Cleveland's

going to be interested in that this year. So if it is Arizona, the question is, are they trading

up in the first round? Do they have to? And does it move them to do so to get that extra year on

the contract? Generally, it does. Generally, those teams come up like they did for Jackson's art

last year. And then you're talking about teams that would trade out. So you know, 26 with Buffalo

makes a lot of sense. 28 with Houston makes a lot of sense. 32 just to swap, you know, one or two

spots with Seattle makes a time of sense, even though that's with with in division. So I do think

ultimately he probably ends up in the first round, but that over 24 and a half, I just can't see

anyone trading up that high to beat out the Browns to take him because I don't think the Browns would

take him at 24. I don't force it. It would be very surprising to me, you know, you're hearing a lot

like the Jackson Dart situation. I don't know that any team loves him the way that like the Giants

loves Jackson Dart either. Like I don't think that that's the situation that we have going on here.

And I think no one's going to really want to trade up for him unless it is like one of those last

couple spots there. I mean, I can tell you that the Jets are hoping that he doesn't go in the first round

so that someone has to trade to 33 to get him. If this number was like 33 and a half for Ty Simpson,

I would hit the I would double click the under so hard. I can't see him getting past the first

pick in the second run. I placed a bet today. Jacksonville Jaguars to take a Y receiver at plus

800. Hunter is no longer going to be playing Y receiver. They said they're going to have some

packages for him, whatever it is. Why wouldn't they keep up with, you know, they have holes

and they don't have holes on the roster. Their roster is pretty good. Like it's a good roster

and they're not having a lot of turnover here. Could they go Y receiver? Totally. They're picking

what like 55 in the second round, something like that. It totally makes sense. It's probably going

to be a good range. There's going to be a lot of good Y receivers in the second round.

They also have a ton of third round picks. So if they want to move up to the top of the second

round, they can easily do so. Right now, their Y receiver Brian Thomas, who I'm assuming is going

to be on the team. I don't think they're going to trade him. Parker Washington, Jacobi Myers,

you know, it's not a huge need, but it is definitely something that they could utilize.

They could also go offensive line. I mean, there's other places they can go, but for what price did

you get? Plus 800. Yeah. So for that eight to one shot that they go Y receiver, I don't think

that that's a bad bet at all. Yeah. Talk to me here about Caleb Downs. I mean, his drop

position line, nine and a half, the overs plus 135. The under is minus 180. Kind of. Another guy that

you weren't hearing a lot about again, and now he's peeping back into the news as we're like closing

it on the draft here. A lot of people are pinning him to the giants. Where are you at?

So I bet the over nine and a half, then the market moved steamed way up to minus 330 on the

over. And now with the mock drafts that came out yesterday, now we're looking at the under being

steamed way the other way. So really interesting market. I think it's a true 50 50. I think it's

lined right. I lean towards the over. I just don't see a great spot where other players wouldn't be

ranked ahead of him on the board. I don't see the giants doing it. I think that one of their other

guys is going to be there. Six doesn't make sense. Seven, I think there's going to be other guys

for Washington or trade out eight. I don't think that safety is their number one priority.

Nine, I haven't heard anything about the chiefs and downs for a while. I think that 10 is the spot

that ultimately he goes. And I think that if he's on the board for the Bengals, they would jump at

the opportunity to get them in less something crazy happens and someone's on the board that we're

not forcing at this point. If he somehow gets past 10, I have to imagine that Miami and Dallas are

going to battle it out for him. But I don't think that without having a tree, that is absolutely

just the one tree for Jerry. Yeah. So I think down just goes 10. I've been firm on him going 10

for a long time. I think it makes sense for the way the draft boards going to work out. So I would

slightly into the over probably wouldn't bet at this point given the mock drafts that came out.

But that's the way I would be. Here's a shift worth noting.

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as a sounding board to like finalize my card and see what I need to finish about it.

What are some of your favorite bets for the draft that maybe people can still get value on

or even just your favorite bets that you placed in general? I've placed a lot of bets so far.

I would say that this week is kind of the week where I kind of take my foot off the gas of

actually betting stuff and just kind of seeing where the market's going to go. I think once Monday

starts, Monday to Thursday is going to be like you're actually going to see where the board's

going to break. So I would bet a lot then. A lot of the stuff that I have now is like longer shots

and round one guys has been like my biggest bets so far this draft season. So

concepcion, I got it minus 200. I still think that's good. You can bet that one.

Chris Johnson is probably my favorite one on the board that everyone can bet right now. I saw

between minus 150 minus 185 earlier. My numbers have this close to about 80 85%. So you're talking

about a much higher juice number. I really, really like that one. I think he's going to be a third corner

back off the board. If you can get Jacob Rodriguez to be the second linebacker drafted,

I got this yesterday on Kalshi at 525. I think that number's gotten seen but I do think he's going

to be the second linebacker taken in the draft. So I like that one. And some longer shots that I

have bet recently. Let's see. Mansor Delane number eight at 550. Oh, I'll also say this.

Numbers that I still like out there. Mansor Delane to be corner back one minus 250.

I like that. I don't think that McCoy is going to be jumping over Delane. I think Delane goes

just 12 and I don't really see a spot from McCoy unless the Bengals do something crazy at 10.

Dylan Thiniman, if you still have it out there under 18 and a half, I bet that I think that 12

12 the Dallas 18 to Minnesota is a good spot. Longer shot out there. Oh,

Emmanuel McNeil Warren first round pick. He's still pulling like that minus 250. I think he's

going to go depending on what your number is at your individual book over two and a half safeties

might be a less juiced number there. It's essentially the exact same bet. So look for the juice on

that. I was looking at that. Yeah. So I definitely think that he's going to be a first round pick

at this point. Longer shots that I have bet recently as in like the last couple days.

Kenyans to deep to Minnesota at 18. This is not one that I have seen very often. I do think given

their situation with no general manager, I think the Kevin O'Connell has a large voice in that room

right now. I know most people have gone defense for them and that's probably the favorite for a reason.

But I do think that if he's the one calling the shots, there's a good chance with TJ Hawkinson's

injury history and the way that he wants to play offense and having Kyler Murray who's done well

with tight ends before getting a guy like Kenyans to deep in there might be interesting. That one

was 1500 plus 1500. I bet I bet the Vikings first pick in like some crazy world that the Vikings

trade up and take love is like the craze probably my craziest long shot that I could kind of see

happening. I know that Jones, I think they just gave him like a little bit of an extension, but it

was just like a friendly team friendly type deal. Like I wouldn't write that off. I don't I don't

I'm not writing off them. Take trying to do something crazy and take love. Hey, they got no GM. So

if it's on the coach, I can definitely say something crazy with Minnesota. I would not rule that out

at all. Texans first pick to be a cornerback plus 2200. You would think that the Texans are definitely

going offensive line. It's definitely their biggest need. If secondary to that defensive line,

we've talked a lot about a Kaden McDonald being their pick at 28. They have sneakily brought in

Chris Johnson and Colton Hood who are obviously both going to be at first run picks or early second

round draft picks. I would not be surprised at the Texans who have committed all this money

directly and are probably not going to pay any of their other other secondary players a lot of

money to bring in a cornerback and solidify that defense. So I have a bed that pick a wide receiver

as long shy. I think I got 16 to 14 to one on that. That would surprise me just because they took

the two Iowa State running wide receivers last year. Yes. But given the range that they're drafting

in at 28, that's probably going to be like a good spot for it. So it's possible. I mean,

I wouldn't be surprised. I bet at some point, Kenyan Cedeak to be there at plus 2800 just because

I have that. I take it on that too. Shultz is, you know, he's not that guy. He's there. He's

competent. But Cedeak would be a real difference maker. If you're trying to figure out,

oh, I'm going to give C.J. Suroud 16 to 18 years. Yeah, let's figure it out. So I can see that.

Right. Absolutely. Any other bets, any other thoughts about the draft that you want to throw out

here before wrap up and let you get out of here? Well, yes. Please, God let the Rams do something

crazy. Undrafted. Crazy. This is what I'm circling. I have this theory that they've been too quiet.

They're going to do something. I don't know if it's going to be offense or defense. You would

assume offense. But if they're all in and they have this 13th pick that they traded for last year.

And by some miracle, they're picking this high. And there are six or seven blucha prospects in

this draft and three or four teams that want to trade down. And this is the ultimate F you

or FM picks team. They just struck me as a team who's going to go up and do something weird.

So that's what I'm looking forward to. And if you can figure out what that is, there's

probably a big profit to be made somewhere. I kind of love it. Kind of love it. Need to figure

out. Sometimes they have some birdies in my DMs that know some RAM stuff. Maybe I need to put

some feelers out and see what I can figure out. Let's see. Let's see what I can figure out.

Let's see what we can brew up a lever. No where they can find you.

Me sure you guys like great review the pod. We'll be back for another Ask Smalls Anything.

So speakpipe.com slash Steffi Smalls. You guys can ask any questions over there.

Be moderately creepy sometimes. It's fine. Anything else is not accepted. But tell everyone

where they can find you. I appreciate you coming on. Yeah. At NFL Gold on Twitter,

you can find it all the other links right there. Thanks for having me on. I loved it.

Can't wait for next week. Let's go. I love it. It's a vest. It's Christmas. It's Christmas.

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