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If you like to make your NFL games a little bit more interesting, you've come to the right place.

It's the Even Money Podcast with Ross Tucker and Steve Bezik.

Yeah, Vegas, baby, Vegas. It is the Even Money Betting Podcast, aka the number one NFL Betting Podcast in the world.

And by the way, we have the results to prove it. You can go back and check out recent episodes

where we recapped how we did in 2025. We will have an episode soon where we'll talk about the entirety of the show

and certainly going back to 2016 when we have kept the records through our guy grades, the Australian sensation.

Last week, we did the AFC season win totals. Our first look at it because Draft King's posted them.

We were thinking about NFC season win totals today, but we can't do it.

Honestly, there's just too much other stuff to get to. There's so much NFL for agency news, NFL quarterback news that we need to discuss

and get Steve's thoughts on from a betting perspective, what matters, what does not.

And then it's conference tournament week in college basketball, which we know is a major, major betting event.

And then it's selection Sunday on Sundays. We want to get ahead of things and Steve can give you some tips

because you won't hear again from us until next Tuesday morning. So some of you that want to do something Sunday night or Monday,

you'll get Steve's bets on today's show. So it's primarily NFL for agency and moves and college hoops

with my guy Steve Fesick, only two-time winner of the super contest out there in Vegas.

And as far as I know, the best public contest player in the world as a reminder, if you know someone that is better, that's cool.

Email me Ross at RossTucker.com, which is also how you can always ask Steve a question directly on the show to give

an advantage of any of our sponsors or just rate and review the show and email it to me Ross at RossTucker.com,

whether it's Apple podcast or Spotify or those of you watching YouTube.com slash RossTucker NFL.

All right Steve, I like to do this sometimes. I'm giving you a blank slate already recorded before 6am this morning,

the RossTucker football podcast where Jack and I went through all of the moves by position from day one for agency yesterday

and also some of the top available guys that are still out there.

I got specific questions for you, but let's start blank slate, blank canvas, whatever you want to call it.

Lots of moves went down yesterday. What matters? What doesn't matter from a betting perspective?

All of the non-quarterback acquisitions don't matter at all Ross and here's why.

Of course it matters that the Raiders are spending lots and lots of money, but if you just looked at the teams with their salary cap,

of course they're going to spend the money if they've got it, you know, and who they wind up spending it on.

These NFL executives are not dummies. They're going to try to get the best deal they can and the best fit for their team,

so it's more important that you have the money to spend than who you actually acquire.

Of course the Raiders way overspent for their new center. Heck, they're still paying off Andre James contract three years, 24 million.

They're former centers, so the Raiders are paying more for centers than anyone in the history of the NFL,

but it still helps the team that they're spending the money, but now they've got less money to spend for other dudes.

So I would say what I like to do is really focus on the quarterbacks.

This is this good news, this is bad news, by example, woof Arizona going with Jacobi Presets.

That's not going to work. That's dooming Arizona to a rebuilding year, by example.

So that's interesting on a lot of levels.

I have mixed emotions, I would say, on a couple of things that you just said.

Because we have seen teams, and I think New England last year is a good example where they made a bunch of off-season acquisitions,

including Stefan Diggs, and on the old line Morgan Moses, Garrett Bradbury, certainly on defense.

They brought in a bunch of guys, and they all seem to work out.

I mean like all those guys they brought in seem to work out.

Those moves were a major reason.

And I know the biggest reasons Drake May and Vabel as their coach.

But Milton Williams, remember he was a first day big ticket last year, he was fantastic for them.

So while I'm not saying Steve that we should go out and pick the Raiders and the Titans to win the Super Bowl and put a future's bet down,

there are some pretty good, you know, recent examples of teams making up a number of acquisitions,

and that playing a really key role in their improvement and their success.

You bring up great points, and I guess maybe what I opened the show with is just a general basic strategy.

90% of these teams season win numbers aren't going to move, but there will be exceptions to the rule.

You bring it up with the Titans, and I'm full disclosure, I'm betting college basketball 12 hours a day.

I'm not during football season, I'm living and breathing the NFL, not so during the off season.

But by all accounts, the Titans are absolutely going all in.

And we see that on their season win number Ross.

I don't know if you noticed, we went through the AFC season wins last episode.

I encourage everyone to go back, but there was major movement and a couple teams.

The Tennessee Titans did go up from six and a half to seven and a half.

The Miami Dolphins went up from four and a half to five and a half.

So it's not like none of these teams are moving, just very few of them are moving.

Let's talk about the Dolphins, because you referenced that quarterbacks, that that is the most significant moves that are made.

The Dolphins are tied in with two quarterbacks.

And really three, if you think about it, Malik Willis signs with the Miami Dolphins, $45 million guaranteed.

So what does that tell us, Steve?

He's the quarterback in Miami.

Tuah is now in Atlanta, so you know Tuah, it'll either be Tuah or Penix as the quarterback in Atlanta.

And then the Cardinals missed out on Malik Willis.

So as you already referenced, it'll be Jacoby Prusset and or Gardner Minshu.

So I feel like we have a pretty good handle now on the quarterbacks for those three teams.

Let's start with the biggest priced guy.

And that's Malik Willis, which is just remarkable to say that out loud and to know that.

They're, they're win total won up by a game.

Steve, after this move, I'm curious.

I think we had the over last week, four and a half seemed really low.

I think we had the over.

But what's your immediate reaction to Malik Willis being the quarterback for the Dolphins is one game,

the right move by the book.

And what do you think about the Dolphins win total now at five and a half?

So my initial calculation is that it is correct.

When yours, I'd have him rated like minus three and a half at quarterback.

And Malik Willis, I have him rated minus one and a half.

What does that mean?

He's one and a half points worse than an average starting quarterback.

That would be a two point differential times 17 games. That's 34.

35 points equals one extra win, Ross.

So it would exactly match the movement from four and a half to five and a half on the Dolphins.

Now, let's have a discussion about Willis.

Is he really a minus one and a half?

Well, when he was at Tennessee, he was a disaster.

He was a worse than a third string quarterback.

And then with the Packers, he had a QBR instead of being ten.

It was like 80.

So he was like a plus two quarterback.

So maybe my rating is too low on Willis.

I can't just average the two, right?

I've got to do a weighted average towards the most recent games.

So I'm probably too low on Willis.

And the fact that the Dolphins are willing to pay him all this money.

If Willis is an average quarterback, boom!

Now the Dolphins become a six and a half win team.

And there's still a bargain over five and a half.

And that kind of feels more the case, right?

Got into my head. I'd go over five and a half.

I agree.

You know what I think is most telling about that, Steve.

And this is where I come in with the players perspective.

The new GM and the new head coach in Miami both came from Green Bay.

So they really know Willis well.

Strengths, weaknesses in the locker room, off the field, all those things.

They know fully well.

If they're not good in two years, they might be gone.

Well, guess what?

With Malik Willis getting $45 million fully guaranteed,

they're pretty tied into him for this year and next.

So they're betting on him.

They're betting that he's an over five and a half quarterback.

That's for sure.

Now, a lot of dead money this year and next year because of that to a contract.

However, they're betting the over.

And I would say I probably would be as well.

We're not getting into the NFC today.

We'll probably save that for a couple of weeks, Steve.

But I did want to get your thoughts on Atlanta.

Because now we know their quarterback will be some combination

of Pennick's junior coming off the injury or to a tongue of Iowa.

I don't even know what their win total is.

I'd be curious to know I can pull it up.

I'd be curious to know what the impact of signing Tua was yesterday,

just in the sense that it locked them in to it being Tua and Pennick's junior.

So I, for memory, I believe it's seven and a half.

I don't believe it's moved.

I do like the acquisition.

And as a former lineman, Ross, talked to me about left-handed quarterbacks

because now, you know, you're protecting the blind spot

in the other direction.

It's got to wreak havoc with the protection versus normalcy

to go back and forth between a...

You ever go back and forth between a...

It makes no difference.

No difference.

Believe it or not, you're protecting a spot, not the player.

It makes a difference for the defense because they get a better chance

to get the ball out from the blind side.

If anything, it means you'll do more bootlegs to the left.

You'll do more play actions, certain directions.

But you're still basically protecting a spot

because there's nothing you would do differently

because the guy is left-handed versus right-handed.

You're protecting where the guy is supposed to be.

Well, I will talk about the receivers.

And I can tell you as a tennis player,

I hated playing against left-handed players.

The ball spins different than what you're used to.

And I just think having both quarterbacks throwing left-handed

and the rotation of the ball being the same,

that has to be...

And like you said, you know, the bootlegs to the left,

the way the offense sets up,

I think that that's a major advantage.

It's similar to if you...

If you have a running quarterback,

you want your backup quarterback to be able to run.

You can run the same offense.

Now you've got two pocket quarterbacks

that both spin the ball the same.

I think that that's advantageous.

Is it a big factor? Maybe not.

I do think it's a favorable factor.

Would you agree?

Yeah, I think there's a reason for that.

You can build the offense

with a left-handed quarterback in mind,

because no matter who's playing,

they're left-handed.

I think that's...

That does make it easier

in terms of what you want to major in and minor in.

You know, there's a lot of smoke about Kyler Murray

going to the Vikings, Steve.

Just had a curiosity.

There are wind totals eight and a half right now.

You feel like that's already built in

that Kyler will be there.

And if it's not,

does it move the needle for you at all?

If he goes there,

is it a J.J. McCarthy?

Gosh, yeah, we got a bet over eight and a half, Russ.

I mean, the Vikings won nine games last year.

I don't even remember.

They're a homer.

What was their third string quarterbacks name, you know?

That they got there...

Max Brozmer.

Yeah, with Grope with nine.

These quarterbacks don't even have names

with nine in the backup.

And so if they actually get Kyler Murray,

I think Kyler Murray knows

this is last dance time.

You know, this doesn't work out.

He's not going to be starting in the league anymore.

So he'll be committed.

And frankly, he's always been successful.

You know, putting up some numbers,

despite having bad teams,

I would look over with the Vikings.

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Last thing on the NFL,

you talked about the Raiders a little bit.

Man, they made a bunch of moves.

Is that enough moves that it changes

how you felt about their win total last week?

Did it move from five and a half

or was already five and a half last week?

It did not move.

It's still at five and a half.

I still go back to,

you know, the Raiders were kind of reeling.

I mean, we're happy about the acquisitions,

but, you know, losing Mad Max,

that's a big deal.

He's kind of the heart and soul of the team.

So I think there's a little hangover still in my town

regarding that.

But I mean, the feeling is that the Raiders

are making the right moves long-term.

It's going to be a rough year for Mendoza, though.

I think the Raiders blew skies ahead,

but not this year.

All right, Steve.

Before we get too far down the NFL rabbit hole,

we got to talk college basketball

because it's that time of year.

It's pretty much mid-March.

I know a lot of people right around now

is when they start to like to bet basketball.

Whether it's conference tournaments

or then obviously,

March Madness,

everybody bets March Madness.

And by the way,

we are going to have an awesome,

awesome opportunity

to our friends at Splash Sports.

We're going to be doing a survivor pool

for our show, for you guys,

just you guys.

So here's what you need to remember.

Make sure you go to rostucker.com

or click on the link tree link

that's in the bio of

wherever we're on social media.

At rostucker pod,

I'm at rostucker NFL.

Sign up to get the email.

We only send out like one a quarter,

but it's going to be next week

and it's going to have this exclusive link for you guys.

You can also get the link on social media.

Steve, we're going to do a survivor pool,

mainly because the NFL has gotten me so fired up

and I'm missing like picking games

or betting on games I wanted some action.

So we're going to do a survivor pool.

So it's not a bracket, Steve.

It's a survivor pool,

which I'm fired up.

So basically every day of March Madness,

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday,

you have to pick one team

to survive that day.

But you can't pick them twice,

just like the NFL.

By the way, this goes well.

We will absolutely do it

during the NFL season.

I never even knew this was a thing,

Steve, where you could do survivor pools

for March Madness.

I like it more than a bracket,

because once your bracket,

like if your bracket's done,

then the first day,

it's like you rip it up and you hate it.

Whereas for this,

hopefully you can keep it going for a long time.

Just give me one piece of advice.

Hopefully you're going to be doing it too.

I think you are because it'll be you and I

and we'll be in a pool

with all the listeners and the viewers.

Give me one piece of advice

on this survivor pool

that we're going to do next week.

I would work backwards.

I would start with your champion

and say, hey, if you think Duke's going to win,

I think Duke's going to win.

So you've got to save them to the very end.

And then you look at the semi-finals

and if you say, all right,

I like Florida to make the semis also boom.

You'd go ahead and put them in.

And then so you can't use those teams before you end.

So it's counterintuitive.

Instead of picking the winner in the first round,

I'd start out with who my elite aid is.

Save those teams.

And then you can start figuring out which teams

you think has the best chance to win

in the current round

where you won't need them later on.

Wow.

This is going to be fun.

Like the strategy of it is wild.

To think about, like, what else?

I mean, because the NFL survivor pool,

you do not work backwards.

Yeah, you know, I've never done a playoff survivor

in the NFL, but obviously,

the one thing I will say about the NFL survivor

is you always want to look at the schedule.

And it makes sense.

Ideally, you want to take the top 20 teams

when they're the biggest favorite

over the course of the season.

So, you know, this year,

whenever a team's home against Arizona,

that would probably be the time you'd want to fire on them, right?

And, like, work backwards from that

instead of just taking the biggest favorite each and every week.

Got it.

That is, you're right.

You could do a survivor pool for the NFL playoffs next year, too.

I didn't even thought about that.

That would be similar where you kind of work back a little bit

from whoever you think is going to be in the Super Bowl

or Super Bowl champ.

What about the, I'm fired up for this, by the way.

That's going to be fun.

What about Steve Conference tournaments?

I know a lot of them are getting underway these next couple days.

What, what, the bigger ones, at least?

What are your betting strategies, betting tips

for Conference Basketball tournaments?

All right, so I'll start with the bigger tournaments

and then I do want to address the smaller tournaments,

which I like better, actually.

But bigger tournaments, things to be aware of,

teams that were terrible over the course of a season,

tend to be good bets.

If you have a conference winning percentage of below 15%,

oftentimes you've been mailing it in game after game,

teams like Kansas State.

All of a sudden, those teams tend to show up

when they get to their conference tournament

and give their best effort.

So I'd be very careful fading the very worst of the worst.

Also, and I don't see any of these games today applying,

Conference immediate revenge.

If you lose to a team and then you wheel right back

and play them again, you tend to want to bet against the spread

on the team that just had the recent loss.

God, okay, so those are for the bigger tournaments.

ACC, big 10, et cetera.

What about the mid major tournaments,

which honestly are more fun to me because

I like seeing these kids get a chance to go to March Madness

to make the tournament.

I like seeing their dreams come true.

So this is a little counterintuitive.

In general, and all of these smaller conference tournaments,

it's one bid leagues and these teams will fall

to the bitter end roster. They're down 14.

They're not going quietly.

They're going to full court trap, full court press,

half court trap, foul, foul, foul, and extend the game

so no under is safe in these games.

So I would look over in the second half

and a lot of these games.

Having said that, the one time I really like under

is the one bid league conference championship games.

We've got three of them I'm going to give out today.

I love me unders because the games are so critical

to the programs, the money, the prestige,

your entire season boils down to one game.

So today, we're going to play Ciana Miramack

under 127 and a half championship game.

Mom with Hofstra under 135 and a half

and finally, Detroit against Wright State

under 153 and a half.

Wright State, of course,

the home of the Wright Brothers in Dayton, Ohio,

that's the name of the university right down the street.

Wright State is in Dayton.

Yeah, they play in the nutter center.

My mom was a finance professor at Wright State.

I grew up in Dayton, Ohio.

Yes.

I never knew Dayton had two colleges.

Oh, we have Sinclair Community College too.

So I mean, I heard Dayton University is beautiful.

Is that correct?

So the University of Dayton.

I grew up on Sean's Avenue.

It's two and a half blocks from campus.

It's a really pretty school.

It's a Catholic school.

It's a party school.

They have a great arena.

Seats 13,000.

That's the first four in Dayton, Ohio.

Great fans.

Don Donner.

I had a great program.

They almost beat UCLA during UCLA 78 game.

Win streak.

The program.

Regressed and then came back a little bit of the flyers.

Absolutely a basketball town.

We have the Dayton Dragons.

A single eight baseball.

But no better basketball town.

And you do a really fun school.

Yes.

All right.

See before I forget.

We're doing a show next Tuesday morning.

So we can talk bracket tips and other march madness tips and all that stuff.

Because that's what we do.

We'll also talk about the other NFL moves that go on over the next few days.

You know, over the next week or so.

We'll get NFL moves.

March madness.

We'll talk more about this survivor pool that we're going to get in that we want you guys to be in.

Are there any things though that our listeners, our viewers need to do right Sunday night or Monday morning when the bracket comes out?

The one thing I like to look at Ross is hidden home field edge.

So look at the distance between the venues being provided.

And especially it's obvious when it's in the same state as the team that's playing.

But oftentimes the team only has to travel 80 miles.

The other team has to travel a time zone or two.

That's a pretty significant advantage that the odds makers oftentimes just take the two power ratings.

They set the spread based upon that.

And they don't give enough edge to the team that obviously is going to have much more of the crowd for the game.

Alright, so when the bracket comes out Sunday night, the value potentially lies in betting on the team that has a hidden home court advantage because they're much closer to where their campuses.

100% yes.

Is there anything else that's time sensitive or not really?

Um, you know, this is the one time a year that the public bets a lot on these games.

So time sensitivity.

I would say pay attention to the Thursday night and the Friday night late night games because you know who the public is going to bet on.

And so if you see a team like Michigan or Michigan state.

I mean, everyone knows Iso's great in the tournament.

There was one game like Iso Michigan state against George Mason.

That line opened three and it went all the way up to Sparty minus six right at post because it was a late game and the like and Mason went out right.

So I would be aware.

Don't play the underdogs on these late night games on Thursday night and Friday night until right before tip.

Next week's show is going to be epic.

Good luck everybody. Hope you guys win some money this weekend.

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