NFL Free Agency: Beyond the Biases

On March 13th, grading NFL free agency deals right after they happen is usually a bad idea.

Those early report cards often get it completely wrong.

Take last year's Seattle Seahawks signing quarterback Sam Darnold to a 3-year, $105 million

deal.

Most experts slapped it with sea grades, or worse, saying the team lacked weapons and the

fit was poor.

Experts and fans fall into common mental traps that cloud judgment.

Sea bias makes recent flops loom large, like Darnold's two rough playoff games with Minnesota

overshadowing his solid year.

Confirmation bias kicks in too, where low expectations for a rebuilding team like Seattle

turned every move sour from the start.

People react strongly because these biases shape hot takes across media.

Last season, Seattle's projected 8.5 wins and long Super Bowl odds fueled doubt.

Even smart moves get dingged if they don't match preconceptions, leaving teams like the

Seahawks undervalued.

This year brings fresh examples.

The Kansas City Chiefs drew some side eye for making running back Kenneth Walker the

third, the highest paid at his position with a 3-year.

$45 million packed after his Super Bowl heroics.

Meanwhile, deals like Daniel Jones, the Indianapolis or Jalen Phillips, the Carolina, stirs similar

debates over anchoring on past failures or winners.

Biasis like these explain why front offices sometimes nail it while pundits miss.

As the offseason unfolds, early grades will fade, but remembering these pitfalls helps us

all see moves more clearly.